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SECY-22-0109 - Enclosure 4 - Proposed Rule - Draft Regulatory Analysis for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating Licenses - Environmental Review
	ML22165A008
Person / Time
Issue date:	12/06/2022
From:	; Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To:	;
	Huckabay, Victoria
Shared Package
ML22165A003	List: SECY-22-0109, - Enclosure 4 - Proposed Rule - Draft Regulatory Analysis for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating Licenses - Environmental Review;
References
	LR GEIS, NRC-2018-0296, RIN 3150-AK32 SECY-22-0109
	Download: ML22165A008 (58)
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Regulatory Analysis for the Proposed Rule:

10 CFR Part 51, Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating LicensesEnvironmental Review NRC-2018-0296; RIN 3150-AK32 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards December 2022

ABSTRACT The NRC is proposing to amend Part 51 of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR) Environmental Protection Regulations for Domestic Licensing and Related Regulatory Functions. This regulatory analysis evaluates the costs and benefits of the rule and implementing guidance relative to the baseline case, the no action alternative. The proposed amendments include updates to Table B-1, Summary of Findings on NEPA [National Environmental Policy Act] Issues for License Renewal of Nuclear Power Plants, in Appendix B, Environmental Effect of Renewing the Operating License of a Nuclear Power Plant, to Subpart A, National Environmental Policy ActRegulations Implementing Section 102(2), to align with recent Commission decisions regarding the NEPA analysis of subsequent license renewal (SLR) applications. NUREG-1437, Revision 1, Generic Environmental Impact Statement for License Renewal of Nuclear Plants, (NRC, 2013a) (2013 LR GEIS), provides the technical and regulatory bases for Table B-1. The proposed rule would update the 2013 LR GEIS, Table B-1, and associated guidance to clearly address the environmental impacts of nuclear power plant SLR; remove the word initial from 10 CFR 51.53(c)(3); and make conforming changes to 10 CFR 51.53(c)(3)(ii) and 10 CFR 51.95(c).

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EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is proposing to amend Part 51 of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR) Environmental Protection Regulations for Domestic Licensing and Related Regulatory Functions. Under the NRCs regulations in 10 CFR Part 51, the renewal of a nuclear power plant operating license requires the preparation of an environmental impact statement (EIS). NUREG-1437, Revision 1, Generic Environmental Impact Statement for License Renewal of Nuclear Plants (NRC, 2013a) (2013 LR GEIS),

provides the technical and regulatory bases for the summary of findings on environmental issues in Table B-1, Summary of Findings on NEPA [National Environmental Policy Act] Issues for License Renewal of Nuclear Power Plants, in Appendix B, Environmental Effect of Renewing the Operating License of a Nuclear Power Plant, to Subpart A, National Environmental Policy ActRegulations Implementing Section 102(2).

In Commission Order CLI-22-03 (NRC, 2022a) and recent decisions in Turkey Point, CLI-22-02 (NRC, 2022b), and Peach Bottom, CLI-22-04 (NRC, 2022c), the Commission determined that the 2013 LR GEIS and Table B-1 did not address subsequent license renewal (SLR). The Commission also found that 10 CFR 51.53(c)(3) only applies to applicants for initial license renewal (initial LR). The proposed rule would update the 2013 LR GEIS, Table B-1, and associated guidance to clearly address the environmental impacts of SLR; remove the word initial from 10 CFR 51.53(c)(3); and make conforming changes to 10 CFR 51.53(c)(3)(ii) and 10 CFR 51.95(c).

This regulatory analysis evaluates the costs and benefits of the proposed rule, including implementing guidance (Alternative 2), relative to the baseline case, the no action alternative.

The NRC staff has made the following key findings:

Rule Analysis: The proposed rule recommended by the staff would result in an annual average benefit of $12.3 million. The net costs and benefits incurred over 10 years are shown in Error! Reference source not found. and Error! Reference source not found.. Error! Reference source not found. shows the total costs and benefits of the proposed rule for each entity affected by the rule. Error! Reference source not found.

shows the total costs and benefits of the proposed rule to industry and the NRC for each type of licensee group affected by the rule.Error! Reference source not found.

Table ES-1 Total Costs and Benefits for Alternative 2 Total (2022 dollars)a Entity Undiscounted 7% NPV 3% NPV Industry $91,369,000 $58,183,000 $74,342,000 NRC $31,723,000 $19,098,000 $25,225,000 Net Benefit (Cost) $123,092,000 $77,281,000 $99,567,000 iii

a Values rounded to the nearest thousand dollars.

Table ES-2 Total Costs and Benefits by Licensee Group for Alternative 2 Total (2022 dollars)a, b Licensee Group Undiscounted 7% NPV 3% NPV Initial LR ($301,000) ($182,000) ($237,000)

Future SLR $127,537,000 $80,943,000 $103,643,000 Near-term and Submitted Applications, and Issued

($4,143,000) ($3,480,000) ($3,838,000)

Subsequently Renewed Licenses Net Benefit (Cost) $123,093,000 $77,281,000 $99,568,000 a Values rounded to the nearest thousand dollars.

b Implementation costs were allotted based on the projected number of affected license renewal applications submitted by that group.

Nonquantified Benefits: Based upon the assessment of total costs and benefits, the NRC concludes that the rule, if issued, would increase regulatory clarity and the intent of the NRCs environmental requirements. The revised rule would result in a more consistent implementation of the NRCs regulatory program and Federal environmental statutes and regulations. Additionally, the rule would ensure that the NRCs license renewal program fully accounts for SLR.

Uncertainty Analysis: The regulatory analysis contains a Monte Carlo simulation analysis that shows the mean net benefit for this proposed rule is $77 million, with 90 percent confidence that the net benefit is between $61 million and $93 million using a 7 percent discount rate. The amount of time for licensees to perform an environmental analysis for new Category 2 issues is the factor responsible for the largest variation in averted costs, followed by the amount of time for the NRC to review the environmental analyses for new Category 2 issues.

Decision Rationale: Relative to Alternative 1, the no action baseline, the NRC concludes that the rule is justified from a quantitative standpoint because its provisions will result in net averted costs (i.e., net benefits) to industry and the NRC. In addition, the NRC concludes that the rule is also justified when considering nonquantified costs and benefits because the significance of the nonquantified benefits in improvements in the quality of the information provided to the NRC, regulatory clarity, and facilitates NRC compliance with Federal environmental statutes and regulations outweighs the nonquantified costs.

Implementation. The NRC expects that the final rule would be effective in 2024. In addition to the LR GEIS, the NRC would correspondingly update the applicable guidance documents: Regulatory Guide 4.2, Supplement 1, Revision 1, Preparation of Environmental Reports for Nuclear Power Plant License Renewal Applications (NRC, 2013b), and NUREG-1555, Supplement 1, Revision 1, Standard Review Plans for iv

Environmental Reviews for Nuclear Power Plants: Operating License Renewal (NRC, 2013c). The NRC plans to issue the revised guidance with the final rule.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT ....................................................................................................................... i EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

....................................................................................................... iii LIST OF FIGURES ................................................................................................................ ix LIST OF TABLES .................................................................................................................. xi ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ................................................................................ xiii 1 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM AND OBJECTIVE ....................................................... 1 1.1 Description of the Proposed Action................................................................... 2 1.2 Need for the Proposed Action ........................................................................... 3 1.3 Existing Regulatory Framework ........................................................................ 4 2 IDENTIFICATION AND PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES ........................................................................................................... 7 2.1 Alternative 1: No Action .................................................................................... 7 2.2 Alternative 2: Rulemaking to Amend 10 CFR Part 51....................................... 8 3 ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION OF COSTS AND BENEFITS .............................. 9 3.1 Identification of Affected Attributes ................................................................... 9 3.1.1 Industry Implementation ...................................................................... 9 3.1.2 Industry Operation ............................................................................... 9 3.1.3 NRC Implementation ........................................................................... 9 3.1.4 NRC Operation .................................................................................. 10 3.1.5 Improvements in Knowledge ............................................................. 10 3.1.6 Regulatory Clarity .............................................................................. 10 3.1.7 Environmental Considerations ........................................................... 10 3.1.8 Attributes with No Effects................................................................... 10 3.2 Analytical Methodology ................................................................................... 11 3.2.1 Regulatory Baseline........................................................................... 11 3.2.2 Affected Entities ................................................................................. 11 3.2.3 Base Year .......................................................................................... 13 3.2.4 Discount Rates .................................................................................. 13 3.2.5 Cost/Benefit Inflators ......................................................................... 13 3.2.6 Labor Rates ....................................................................................... 14 3.2.7 Sign Conventions............................................................................... 15 3.2.8 Analysis Horizon ................................................................................ 15 3.3 Industry Implementation.................................................................................. 15 3.4 Industry Operation .......................................................................................... 16 vii

3.5 NRC Implementation....................................................................................... 18 3.6 NRC Operation ............................................................................................... 19 3.7 Improvements in Knowledge........................................................................... 20 3.8 Regulatory Clarity ........................................................................................... 20 3.9 Environmental Considerations ........................................................................ 21 4

SUMMARY

OF THE RESULTS ................................................................................ 22 4.1 Summary......................................................................................................... 22 4.1.1 Quantified Net Benefits ...................................................................... 22 4.1.2 Nonquantified Benefits....................................................................... 22 4.2 Uncertainty Analysis ....................................................................................... 23 4.2.1 Uncertainty Analysis Assumptions..................................................... 23 4.2.2 Uncertainty Analysis Results ............................................................. 24 4.2.3 Summary of Uncertainty Analysis ...................................................... 27 4.3 Disaggregation ................................................................................................ 27 5 DECISION RATIONALE AND IMPLEMENTATION ................................................. 28 6 REFERENCES .......................................................................................................... 29 APPENDIX A SUPPORTING INFORMATION ...................................................................... 1 viii

LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Total Industry Net Benefits (Costs) (7 Percent NPV)Alternative 2 ........................... 24 Figure 2 Total NRC Net Benefits (Costs) (7 Percent NPV)Alternative 2 ................................ 25 Figure 3 Total Net Benefits (Cost) (7 Percent NPV)Alternative 2 ........................................... 25 Figure 4 Tornado DiagramTotal Averted Costs7 Percent NPV .......................................... 26 ix

LIST OF TABLES Table 1 Affected License Renewal Applicants ........................................................................... 12 Table 2 CPI-U Inflator ................................................................................................................ 14 Table 3 Position Titles and Occupations .................................................................................... 15 Table 4 Industry Implementation ................................................................................................ 16 Table 5 Industry Operation Costs .............................................................................................. 18 Table 6 NRC Implementation ..................................................................................................... 19 Table 7 NRC Operation Costs ................................................................................................... 20 xi

ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AEA Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as amended BLS Bureau of Labor Statistics (U.S. Department of Labor)

CFR Code of Federal Regulations CPI-U consumer price index for all urban consumers EIS environmental impact statement EMF electromagnetic field FR Federal Register GPM gallons per minute LR license renewal LR GEIS Generic Environmental Impact Statement for License Renewal of Nuclear Plants NEPA National Environmental Policy Act NPV net present value NRC U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission OMB U.S. Office of Management and Budget PERT program evaluation and review technique ROW right-of-way SEIS supplemental environmental impact statement SLR subsequent license renewal SRM staff requirements memorandum xiii

1 STATEMENT OF PROBLEM AND OBJECTIVE The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) is proposing to amend its environmental protection regulations for the renewal of nuclear power plant operating licenses, including Table B-1, Summary of Findings on NEPA [National Environmental Policy Act] Issues for License Renewal of Nuclear Power Plants, in Appendix B, Environmental Effect of Renewing the Operating License of a Nuclear Power Plant, to Subpart A, National Environmental Policy ActRegulations Implementing Section 102(2), of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR) Part 51, Environmental Protection Regulations for Domestic Licensing and Related Regulatory Functions, and make conforming changes in 10 CFR 51.53(c)(3)(ii) and 10 CFR 51.95(c).1 (Hereafter, this document will refer to this table simply as Table B-1.) Under the NRCs regulations in 10 CFR Part 51, which implement the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969, as amended (NEPA),2 the renewal of a nuclear power plant operating license requires the preparation of an environmental impact statement (EIS).

To support the preparation of license renewal EISs, the NRC conducted a comprehensive review to identify the common environmental effects of license renewal. The review determined which environmental effects could result in the same (generic) impacts at all nuclear power plants (or a subset of plants) and which effects could result in different levels of impact, requiring nuclear-plant-specific analyses for an impact determination. The review culminated in the issuance of NUREG-1437, Generic Environmental Impact Statement for License Renewal of Nuclear Plants (NRC, 1996) (1996 LR GEIS), followed by the publication of the final rule that codified the LR GEIS findings on June 5, 1996 (61 FR 28467).

The introduction to Appendix B to Subpart A of 10 CFR Part 51 states that, on a 10-year cycle, the Commission intends to review the material in Appendix B, including Table B-1, and update it if necessary. The previous revision cycle was completed with the issuance of a final rule and LR GEIS, Revision 1 (2013 LR GEIS), on June 20, 2013 (78 FR 37281). The 2013 LR GEIS (NRC, 2013a) provides the technical and regulatory bases for the current Table B-1. The revised LR GEIS provides the technical and regulatory bases for the proposed rule.

In Commission Order CLI-22-03 (NRC, 2022a) and recent decisions in Turkey Point, CLI-22-02 (NRC, 2022b), and Peach Bottom, CLI-22-04 (NRC, 2022c), the Commission determined that the 2013 LR GEIS and Table B-1 did not address subsequent license renewal (SLR).

Additionally, the Commission found that 10 CFR 51.53(c)(3) only applies to applicants for initial license renewal (initial LR).

The proposed rule would redefine the number and scope of the environmental issues in Table B-1 that must be addressed by the NRC and applicants during plant-specific license 1 This rule would also remove the word initial from 10 CFR 51.53(c).

2 NEPA requires Federal agencies to analyze the environmental effects of their proposed actions before deciding whether to approve or disapprove the proposed action.

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renewal environmental reviews based on changes in the LR GEIS. The proposed rule would update the LR GEIS to also apply to SLR. It would also codify the lessons learned, knowledge gained, and experience from license renewal environmental reviews performed since development of the 2013 LR GEIS and incorporate changes in environmental regulations, impact methodology, and other new information.

This regulatory analysis evaluates the proposed rule and one alternative, the no action alternative, for which the NRC would not conduct rulemaking but continue to regulate the renewal of nuclear power plant operating licenses using existing environmental protection regulations. The no action alternative is the baseline against which the proposed action is compared.

1.1 Description of the Proposed Action The proposed action is to update the LR GEIS and the environmental issues in Table B-1 to address the impacts of initial LR and SLR. The rule would also remove the word initial from 10 CFR 51.53(c)(3) and make conforming changes in 10 CFR 51.53(c)(3)(ii) and 10 CFR 51.95(c). Additionally, the rule would address recent changes to environmental laws, executive orders, and regulations.

Specifically, the proposed action would redefine the number and scope of the environmental issues that must be addressed by the Commission in conjunction with the review of license renewal applications (initial LR or SLR). The associated draft LR GEIS identified 80 environmental issues, 20 of which require a plant-specific analysis. The following summarizes the types of proposed changes to Table B-1 (as enumerated in Appendix A to this analysis):

One Category 2 issue, Groundwater quality degradation (cooling ponds at inland sites) and a related Category 1 issue, Groundwater quality degradation (cooling ponds in salt marshes), were consolidated into a single Category 2 issue, Groundwater quality degradation (plants with cooling ponds).

Two related Category 1 issues, Infrequently reported thermal impacts (all plants) and Effects of cooling water discharge on dissolved oxygen, gas supersaturation, and eutrophication, and the thermal effluent component of the Category 1 issue, Losses from predation, parasitism, and disease among organisms exposed to sublethal stresses, were consolidated into a single Category 1 issue, Infrequently reported effects of thermal effluents.

One Category 2 issue, Impingement and entrainment of aquatic organisms (plants with once-through cooling systems or cooling ponds) and the impingement component of a Category 1 issue, Losses from predation, parasitism, and disease among organisms exposed to sublethal stresses were consolidated into a single Category 2 issue, Impingement mortality and entrainment of aquatic organisms (plants with once-through cooling systems or cooling ponds).

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One Category 1 issue, Impingement and entrainment of aquatic organisms (plants with cooling towers) and the impingement component of a Category 1 issue, Losses from predation, parasitism, and disease among organisms exposed to sublethal stresses, were consolidated into a single Category 1 issue, Impingement mortality and entrainment of aquatic organisms (plants with cooling towers).

One Category 2 issue, Threatened, endangered, and protected species and essential fish habitat, was divided into three Category 2 issues: (1) Endangered Species Act:

Federally listed species and critical habitats under U.S. Fish and Wildlife jurisdiction, (2) Endangered Species Act: Federally listed species and critical habitats under National Marine Fisheries Service jurisdiction, and (3) Magnuson-Stevens Act:

essential fish habitat.

Two new Category 2 issues, National Marine Sanctuaries Act: sanctuary resources and Climate change impacts on environmental resources, were added.

One Category 2 issue, Severe accidents, was changed to a Category 1 issue.

One new Category 1 issue, Greenhouse gas impacts on climate change, was added.

The NRC does not propose to eliminate any environmental issues identified in Table B-1 and evaluated in the 2013 LR GEIS.

Under the proposed action, in addition to updating the LR GEIS, the NRC would revise the guidance in Regulatory Guide 4.2, Supplement 1, Revision 1, Preparation of Environmental Reports for Nuclear Power Plant License Renewal Applications, (NRC, 2013b), and NUREG-1555, Supplement 1, Revision 1, Standard Review Plans for Environmental Reviews for Nuclear Power Plants: Operating License Renewal, (NRC, 2013c), with the final rule. The staff uses these guidance documents to evaluate license renewal applications, to conduct plant-specific environmental reviews, and to assist applicants in the preparation of environmental reports as part of their license renewal applications.

1.2 Need for the Proposed Action The regulations in 10 CFR Part 51 state that the Commission intends to review Table B-1, along with technical supporting documentation (NUREG-1437), on a 10-year cycle and update it if necessary. The LR GEIS and Table B-1 have generally been effective in focusing license renewal environmental reviews on important plant-specific issues and concerns at each nuclear power plant site, thus increasing the overall efficiency of the NRCs environmental review and in meeting its NEPA compliance responsibilities. The last rule that amended Table B-1 was published in 2013, along with the 2013 LR GEIS.

The current rulemaking began when the NRC issued a notice of intent to review and potentially update the 2013 LR GEIS. In July 2021, the staff submitted SECY-21-0066, Rulemaking Plan for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating LicensesEnvironmental Review 3

(RIN 3150-AK32; NRC-2018-0296) (NRC, 2021a), to request Commission approval to initiate a rulemaking to amend Table B-1 and update the 2013 LR GEIS and associated guidance. The rulemaking plan also proposed to remove the word initial from 10 CFR 51.53(c)(3) and make corresponding changes to the LR GEIS and associated guidance to include applicability to SLR.

In February 2022, the Commission issued Staff Requirements Memorandum (SRM)-SECY-21-0066, Rulemaking Plan for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating Licenses - Environmental Review (RIN 3150-AK32; NRC-2018-0296) (NRC, 2022d),

disapproving the staffs recommendation and directing the staff to develop a rulemaking plan that aligned with Commissions Order CLI-22-03 (NRC, 2022a) and recent decisions in CLI-22-02 (NRC, 2022b) and CLI-22-04 (NRC, 2022c) regarding the NEPA analysis of SLR applications. The SRM also directed the staff to (1) proceed with rulemaking to amend Table B-1, (2) remove the word initial from 10 CFR 51.53(c)(3), (3) update the LR GEIS, (4) conduct a thorough analysis of the environmental impacts of SLR to expand the applicability of the LR GEIS, and (5) consider changes to applicable laws and regulations, new data, and experience in conducting similar environmental reviews.

In March 2022, the staff submitted SECY-22-0024, Rulemaking Plan for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating LicensesEnvironmental Review (RIN 3150-AK32; NRC-2018-0296)

(NRC, 2022e), to request Commission approval to initiate a rulemaking that would align with the Commissions Order CLI-22-03 (NRC, 2022a), and recent decisions in CLI-22-02 (NRC, 2022b),

and CLI-22-04 (NRC, 2022c).

In April 2022, the Commission issued SRM-SECY-22-0024, Rulemaking Plan for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating LicensesEnvironmental Review (RIN 3150-AK32; NRC-2018-0296) (NRC, 2022f), approving the staffs recommendation to proceed with the rulemaking.

Revisions to the 2013 LR GEIS would consider (1) lessons learned and experience gained during previous license renewal reviews conducted since development of the 2013 LR GEIS, and (2) new research, findings, and other information when evaluating the significance of impacts associated with initial LR and SLR. The purpose of this evaluation is to review the findings presented in the 2013 LR GEIS and to ensure that the analysis and assumptions apply to SLR. In doing so, the NRC considered the need to modify, add, or delete any of the environmental issues in the 2013 LR GEIS and codified in Table B-1.

1.3 Existing Regulatory Framework As mandated by the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as amended (AEA), the NRC is responsible for protecting public health and safety in the civilian use of nuclear power. The AEA allows the NRC to issue licenses for commercial nuclear power reactors to operate for up to 40 years. The NRCs regulations allow for the renewal of these licenses, with the renewal term including the number of years remaining on the operating license currently in effect plus an additional 20 years. The approval or disapproval of the license renewal application is based on an NRC 4

determination as to whether the nuclear facility can continue to operate safely during the 20-year period of extended operation and whether the adverse environmental impacts of license renewal are so great that preserving the option of license renewal for energy planning decisionmakers would be unreasonable. The term of any renewed license may not exceed 40 years. No specific limitations exist in the AEA or in the NRCs regulations on the number of times a power reactor operating license may be renewed.

Under the NRCs environmental protection regulations in 10 CFR Part 51, which implement NEPA, renewal of a nuclear power plant operating license requires the preparation of an EIS. In this regard, the NRC prepares a supplemental EIS (SEIS) to the LR GEIS for each license renewal application. The primary purpose for the LR GEIS is to identify all environmental issues for license renewal and evaluate those environmental impacts considered to be generic to all nuclear power plants, or a subset of plants. The LR GEIS also identifies issues that need to be addressed in plant-specific environmental reviews for nuclear power plant license renewals, as documented in plant-specific SEISs.

The environmental issues evaluated in the LR GEIS and listed in Table B-1 are characterized as either Category 1, Category 2, or uncategorized. Category 1 issues are considered generic, as the impacts have been found to be essentially the same or similar at all, or a subset of, nuclear plants. Category 1 issues are not reevaluated in nuclear power plant-specific environmental reviews absent new and significant information. Category 2 issues are required to be addressed in each nuclear power plant-specific environmental review. Table B-1 summarizes the findings in the LR GEIS on environmental issues for license renewal of nuclear power plants.

Additionally, to support the staffs environmental review, license renewal applicants must prepare an environmental report under 10 CFR 51.53(c). That section directs applicants for initial LR to analyze Category 2 issues and rely on Table B-1 and the LR GEIS for Category 1 issues. The staff uses the information in that environmental report to analyze Category 2 issues in a plant-specific SEIS to the LR GEIS.

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2 IDENTIFICATION AND PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE APPROACHES The NRC analyzed one alternative to the rule, as described in this section.

2.1 Alternative 1: No Action Alternative The no action alternative maintains the status quo. Under the no action alternative, the NRC would not amend certain provisions of 10 CFR Part 51 relating to the renewal of nuclear power plant licenses, including Table B-1. This alternative serves as the baseline for this analysis.

Initial LR Under Alternative 1, the NRC would continue to rely upon the findings set forth in the current Table B-1 when determining the scope and magnitude of environmental impacts of an initial operating license renewal for a nuclear power plant. Licensees seeking an initial operating license renewal would continue to comply with the existing provisions of 10 CFR Part 51. This alternative would result in no new direct costs to the NRC or licensees seeking an initial LR.

Future SLR3 In accordance with the Commissions Order CLI-22-03 (NRC, 2022a), Alternative 1 would not address the environmental impacts of renewing the operating license of a nuclear power plant for SLR. This alternative would result in additional costs to the NRC and licensees seeking a future SLR for evaluating all environmental impacts as plant-specific issues.

Near-Term4 and Submitted Applications, and Issued5 Subsequently Renewed Licenses In accordance with the Commissions Orders CLI-22-02 (NRC, 2022b), and CLI-22-04 (NRC, 2022c), for licensees seeking a near-term SLR or licensees that have submitted an application for an SLR or received an SLR, Alternative 1 would require the evaluation of all 3 Future SLR refers to SLR applications submitted after the rule becomes effective.

4 Near-term SLR refers to SLR applications submitted before the effective date of the rule.

5 At present, three operating nuclear power plants have received subsequently renewed licenses. In accordance with the Commissions Orders CLI-22-02 (NRC, 2022b) and CLI-22-04 (NRC, 2022c) two of the three operating nuclear power plants with subsequently renewed licenses are reset to expire at the end of the initial period of extended operation, which were affirmed by the Commissions Orders CLI-22-06 (NRC, 2022g) and CLI-22-07 (NRC, 2022h). This direction will hold either (1) until the NRC issues the revised LR GEIS and rule or (2) the staff completes a plant-specific environmental impact statement that considers the impacts of nuclear power plant operations during the SLR period, which includes consideration of an applicants revised environmental report that addresses environmental impacts during the SLR period. The remaining operating nuclear power plant requires no additional action at present and is unaffected by the proposed rule.

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environmental issues as plant-specific. This alternative would result in additional costs to the NRC and licensees.

2.2 Alternative 2: Rulemaking to Amend 10 CFR Part 51 Under Alternative 2, the NRC would issue a final rule that would establish new, and amend existing, provisions of 10 CFR Part 51 relating to the renewal of nuclear power plant licenses, including Table B-1. Changes include updating all issues in the current Table B-1 to fully account for SLR and are based on the findings described in the revised LR GEIS. The rule includes new, consolidated, and revised Category 1 and 2 issues based on lessons learned, knowledge gained, and experience from license renewal environmental reviews performed since development of the 2013 LR GEIS. The rule also incorporates changes in environmental regulations, impact methodology, and other new information. The rule clarifies issue titles and the scope and resources considered for issue findings.

The rule would apply to all nuclear power plant license renewal applicants and benefit future SLR applicants. Error! Reference source not found. in Appendix A to this regulatory analysis presents the proposed changes to the issues and findings in Table B-1 that would result in quantifiable costs and benefits.

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3 ESTIMATION AND EVALUATION OF COSTS AND BENEFITS This section examines the costs and benefits expected to result from the NRCs rule. All costs and benefits are monetized, when possible. The total costs and benefits are then summed to determine whether the difference between the costs and benefits results in a positive benefit. In some cases, costs and benefits are not monetized because meaningful quantification is not possible.

3.1 Identification of Affected Attributes This section identifies the components of the public and private sectors, commonly referred to as attributes, that are expected to be affected by Alternative 2, the rulemaking alternative, identified in Section 2. Alternative 2 would apply to all NRC applicants renewing their nuclear power reactor(s) operating license. The staff developed an inventory of the impacted attributes using the list in NUREG/BR-0058, draft Revision 5, Regulatory Analysis Guidelines of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, issued January 2020 (NRC, 2020).

The rule would affect the attributes described below.

3.1.1 Industry Implementation This attribute accounts for the projected net economic effect on the industry of implementing the regulatory action for all affected licensees. Under this action, the industry would review the regulations and update its processes and procedures, as necessary.

3.1.2 Industry Operation This attribute accounts for the projected net economic effect on all affected licensees caused by routine and recurring activities required by Alternative 2. Under Alternative 2, licensees would incur costs and benefits resulting from the environmental issues and findings proposed in Table B-1.

3.1.3 NRC Implementation This attribute accounts for the projected net economic effect on the NRC related to placing the alternative into operation. The NRCs implementation of Alternative 2 will include the agencys cost to develop and issue the final rule and associated guidance.

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3.1.4 NRC Operation This attribute accounts for the projected net economic effect on the NRC caused by routine and recurring activities required by Alternative 2. Under Alternative 2, the NRC would incur costs and benefits resulting from the environmental issues and findings proposed in Table B-1.

3.1.5 Improvements in Knowledge This attribute accounts for the potential value of new information resulting from the implementation of Alternative 2 compared to Alternative 1. Alternative 2 would codify the lessons learned, knowledge gained, and experience from license renewal environmental reviews performed since development of the 2013 LR GEIS and incorporate changes in environmental regulations, impact methodology, and other new information.

3.1.6 Regulatory Clarity This attribute accounts for regulatory clarity resulting from the implementation of Alternative 2 compared to Alternative 1. Alternative 2 would update the applicability of the LR GEIS, Table B-1, and the associated guidance to SLR.

3.1.7 Environmental Considerations This attribute accounts for the consideration of environmental impacts of Federal actions that affect the human environment. Many NRC regulatory actions are handled through an EIS that considers the environmental impacts (both negative and beneficial) from the proposed licensing action. This regulatory action would update Table B-1 and make other conforming changes in 10 CFR Part 51, which will improve the quality of the environmental information provided to the NRC and facilitate license renewal environmental reviews performed for power reactor license renewal. The impacts of these changes are analyzed in the attributes discussed in Sections 3.1.1-3.1.3.

3.1.8 Attributes with No Effects The following attributes are not expected to contribute to the results under any of the alternatives:

Public Health (Accident)

Public Health (Routine)

Occupational Health (Accident)

Occupational Health (Routine)

Offsite Property

Onsite Property

Other Government Entities

General Public 10

Safeguards and Security Considerations

Other Considerations 3.2 Analytical Methodology This section describes the process used to evaluate costs and benefits associated with Alternative 2. The benefits include any desirable changes in affected attributes (e.g., monetary savings). The costs include any undesirable changes in affected attributes (e.g., monetary costs).

Of the seven affected attributes, the analysis quantitively evaluates four attributesindustry implementation, industry operation, NRC implementation, and NRC operation. Quantitative analysis requires a baseline characterization of the affected society, including factors such as the number of affected entities, the nature of the activities currently performed, and the types of systems and procedures that applicants would consider or would no longer implement because of the proposed alternatives. Where possible, the NRC calculated costs for these attributes using distributions to quantify the uncertainty in these estimates. The individual sections for each of the provisions include the detailed cost tables used in this regulatory analysis. The NRC evaluated the remaining attributes qualitatively because the benefits relating to regulatory efficiency are not easily quantifiable or because the data necessary to quantify and monetize the impacts of these attributes are not available.

3.2.1 Regulatory Baseline This regulatory analysis measures the incremental costs of the rule relative to a baseline that reflects anticipated behavior if the NRC does not undertake any regulatory action. As part of the regulatory baseline used in this analysis, the staff assumes full licensee compliance with existing NRC regulations. Section 4 of this regulatory analysis presents the estimated incremental costs and benefits of the alternatives compared to this baseline. This regulatory baseline is the no action alternative (i.e., Alternative 1).

3.2.2 Affected Entities The licensees for all 54 operating nuclear power plant sites can apply for license renewal. The licensees for 49 operating nuclear power plants sites have already received an initial 20-year operating license extension from the NRC. Three operating nuclear power plants sites have received subsequently renewed licenses. Table A-3 includes the timing of the estimated initial LR and SLR submittals for each operating plant.

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The analysis estimates the number of initial LR applications, future SLR applications, and near-term and submitted applications, and issued subsequently renewed licenses as follows:

The NRC is currently reviewing four SLR applications.

Based on letters of intent, approved timely renewal exemptions, and discussions with licensees, the NRC anticipates receiving four SLR applications through fiscal year 2024.

As a result of Orders CLI-22-02 (NRC, 2022b), CLI-22-04 (NRC, 2022c), CLI-22-06 (NRC, 2022g) and CLI-22-07 (NRC, 2022h), two of the three operating nuclear power plants sites with subsequently renewed licensees have been reset to the end of the initial period of extended operation. The remaining operating nuclear power plant site with an SLR would require no additional action.

Some operating nuclear power plant sites will become eligible for a subsequent 20-year license extension after fiscal year 2024 (e.g., 60 to 80 years). The NRC expects to receive an estimated 43 SLR applications during fiscal year 2025 through fiscal year 2035.

The NRC estimates that it will receive a total of 44 license renewal applications (including initial LR and SLR applications) in the 10-year cycle following the effective date of the rule, as shown in Error! Reference source not found.. Currently, sufficient data does not exist to support estimates on license renewal applications beyond 2035.

Table 1 Affected License Renewal Applicants6 Near-Term and Submitted Total License Initial Future Calendar Year Applications, and Renewal LRa SLR Issued Subsequently Applicationsb, c Renewed Licenses 2025 0 13 10 23 2026 0 2 4 2027 0 2 3 2028 0 1 2 2029 0 0 0 2030 0 1 2 2031 0 1 3 2032 0 2 2 2033 0 2 4 2034 0 5 6 2035 1 4 6 Total 1 33 10 44 Applications a Diablo Canyon Units 1 and 2 are scheduled to cease operation in 2024 and 2025, respectively, and therefore are not included in this analysis.

6 Data in Table 1 is current as of August 15, 2022.

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b This analysis assumes licensees will submit a license renewal application, which may cover multiple units, as shown in Table A-3.

c Advanced nuclear reactors are excluded from this analysis but are considered in the Regulatory Analysis for the 10 CFR Part 51, Advanced Nuclear Reactor Generic Environmental Impact Statement Proposed Rule, December 14, 2021 (ML21222A057) (NRC, 2021b).

3.2.3 Base Year All monetized costs are expressed in 2022 dollars. The staff expects the NRC to incur implementation costs to prepare and issue a final rule and guidance in 2024. Ongoing operation costs related to Alternative 2 are assumed to begin no earlier than 30 days after publication of the final rule in the Federal Register, unless otherwise stated, and are modeled on an annual cost basis. Estimates are made for recurring annual operating expenses. The values for annual operating expenses are modeled as a constant expense for each year of the 10-year analysis horizon. The staff performed a discounted cash flow calculation to discount these annual expenses to 2022 dollar values.

3.2.4 Discount Rates In accordance with guidance from U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Circular No. A-4, Regulatory Analysis, issued September 2003 (OMB, 2003), and NUREG/BR-0058, net present value (NPV) calculations are used to determine how much society would need to invest today to ensure that the designated dollar amount is available in a given year in the future. Using NPV calculations, costs and benefits are valued to a reference year for comparison, regardless of when the cost or benefit is incurred in time. Based on OMB Circular No. A-4 and consistent with NRC practice and guidance, present-worth calculations in this analysis use 3 percent and 7 percent real discount rates. A 3 percent discount rate approximates the real rate of return on long-term government debt, which serves as a proxy for the real rate of return on savings to reflect reliance on a social rate of time preference discounting concept.7 A 7 percent discount rate approximates the marginal pretax real rate of return on an average investment in the private sector, and it is the appropriate discount rate whenever the main effect of a regulation is to displace or alter the use of capital in the private sector. A 7 percent rate is consistent with an opportunity cost8 of capital concept to reflect the time value of resources directed to meet regulatory requirements.

3.2.5 Cost/Benefit Inflators The staff estimated the analysis inputs from sources as referenced in Appendix A, which are provided in prior-year dollars. To evaluate the costs and benefits consistently, these inputs are put into 2022 base-year dollars. The most common inflator is the consumer price index for all 7 The social rate of time preference discounting concept refers to the rate at which society is willing to postpone a marginal unit of current consumption in exchange for more future consumption.

8 Opportunity cost represents what is foregone by undertaking a given action. If the licensee personnel were not engaged in revising procedures, they would be performing other work activities. Throughout the analysis, the NRC estimates the opportunity cost of performing these incremental tasks as the industry personnels pay for the designated unit of time.

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urban consumers (CPI-U) developed by the U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Using the CPI-U, the prior-year dollars are converted to 2022 base-year dollars. For 2022, the currently reported CPI-U values have been averaged together; the entirety of CPI-U for 2022 has not been determined by the BLS. The formula to determine the amount in 2022 dollars is as follows:

=

Error! Reference source not found. summarizes the values of CPI-U used in this regulatory analysis.

Table 2 CPI-U Inflator Base Year CPI-U Annual Averagea 2021 270.970 2022 286.755 a BLS, 2022.

3.2.6 Labor Rates For the purposes of this regulatory analysis, the NRC applied incremental cost principles to develop labor rates that include only labor and material costs directly related to the implementation, operation, and maintenance of the rule requirements. This approach is consistent with the guidance in NUREG/CR-3568, A Handbook for Value-Impact Assessment, issued December 1983 (NRC, 1983), and general cost-benefit methodology. The NRC incremental labor rate is $143 per hour for fiscal year 2022.9 The staff used data from the 2021 BLS Occupational Employment and Wages data (BLS, 2021), which provides labor categories and the mean hourly wage rate by job type, and used the inflator discussed above to inflate these labor rate data to 2022 dollars. The labor rates used in the analysis reflect total hourly compensation, including wages and nonwage benefits, using a burden factor of 2.4. The NRC used the BLS data tables to select appropriate hourly labor rates for performing the anticipated tasks necessary during and following implementation of the proposed alternative. In establishing this labor rate, wages paid to the individuals performing the work, plus the associated fringe benefit component of labor cost (i.e., insurance premiums, pension, and legally required benefits), are considered incremental expenses and 9 The NRC labor rates presented herein differ from those developed under the NRCs license fee recovery program (10 CFR Part 170, Fees for Facilities, Materials, Import and Export Licenses, and Other Regulatory Services Under the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as Amended). NRC labor rates for fee recovery purposes are appropriately designed for full-cost recovery of the services rendered and as such include nonincremental costs (e.g., overhead, administrative, and logistical support costs).

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are included. Error! Reference source not found. summarizes the BLS labor categories that were used to estimate industry labor costs to implement this rule.

Table 3 Position Titles and Occupations Position Title (in this Standard Occupational Classification (SOC Code)

Regulatory Analysis)

Managers General and Operations Managers (111021)

Biological Scientists (191020)

Technical Staff Environmental Scientists and Geoscientists (192040)

Life, Physical, and Social Scientists (190000)

Office and Administrative Support Occupations (430000)

Administrative Staff First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrative Support Workers (431011)

Licensing Staff Lawyers (231011)

The NRC used BLS labor rates at the 25th percentile, mean, and 75th percentile and adjusted to 2022 dollars as input into the uncertainty analysis, which is described in Section 4. The industry hourly labor rate used in this analysis is $167 per hour.

3.2.7 Sign Conventions The sign conventions used in this analysis are that all favorable consequences for the Alternative 2 are positive and all adverse consequences are negative. Negative values are shown using parentheses (e.g., negative $500 is displayed as ($500)).

3.2.8 Analysis Horizon The analysis horizon is 10 years based on Appendix B to Subpart A of 10 CFR Part 51, which states that the material in Appendix B, including Table B-1, should be reviewed on a 10-year cycle and updated if necessary. This is also consistent with Commission direction in SRM-SECY-21-0066, SRM-SECY-22-0024, and SRM-SECY-22-0036, Staff Requirements SECY-22-0036Rulemaking Plan for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating Licenses 10-Year Environmental Regulatory Update (NRC-2022-0087), dated June 17, 2022 (NRC, 2022i).

3.3 Industry Implementation Under Alternative 2, industry would need to review the rule and update its procedures, as necessary. The staff assumed that these implementation activities would apply to the 18 parent companies of the licensees expected to submit applications under this rule from 2025 through 2035, as well as those licensees that plan to submit near-term SLR applications or licenses that have submitted an SLR application or have received a subsequently renewed license. The staff estimated each parent company would incur $50,000 in costs to perform these activities, allocated evenly between reviewing the regulatory changes and updating their procedures in 15

preparation for using the new requirements. These activities result in costs to industry of approximately ($760,000) using a 7 percent NPV and ($836,000) using a 3 percent NPV, shown in Error! Reference source not found..

Table 4 Industry Implementation Total per Total (2022 dollars)a No. of Parent Year Activity Parent Companies 7% NPV 3% NPV Company Undiscounted Licensee Review 2024 18 $25,000 ($450,000) ($393,000) ($424,200)

New Requirements Licensee 2025 Procedure(s) 18 $25,000 ($450,000) ($367,000) ($412,000)

Update(s)

Industry Net Implementation Benefit (Cost) ($900,000) ($760,000) ($836,000) a Values rounded to nearest thousand dollars.

3.4 Industry Operation Alternative 2 provides 80 issues in Table B-1 (see Error! Reference source not found. in Appendix A) that each licensee must assess and include as part of the environmental review of its license renewal application to the NRC.

General assumptions: Assumptions are listed below and apply to all license renewal applicants:

Category 1 IssueA Category 1 issue is assumed to require, on average, 95 hours0.0011 days 0.0264 hours 1.570767e-4 weeks 3.61475e-5 months of licensee staff labor to research new and significant information and, as applicable, include information in the environmental report.

Category 2 IssueA Category 2 issue is assumed to require, on average, 381 hours0.00441 days 0.106 hours 6.299603e-4 weeks 1.449705e-4 months of licensee staff labor to complete a plant-specific analysis and to present the analysis in the environmental report.

Uncategorized IssueAn uncategorized issue is assumed to require, on average, 95 hours0.0011 days 0.0264 hours 1.570767e-4 weeks 3.61475e-5 months of licensee staff labor to research new and significant information and, as applicable, include information in the environmental report.

Category ChangeThe net savings per change from Category 2 to Category 1 and the net cost per change from a Category 2 to Category 1 is 286 hours0.00331 days 0.0794 hours 4.728836e-4 weeks 1.08823e-4 months .

Issue ConsolidationCombining similar category issues from the 2013 LR GEIS into a single Category 1 or Category 2 issue in the proposed Table B-1 will result in an estimated 70 percent savings, on average, in labor time for each issue removed by consolidation.

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Issue DivisionDividing a category issue from the 2013 LR GEIS into individual issues of the same category in the proposed Table B-1, on average, will result in an estimated 50 percent increase in cost and in labor time for each issue added by issue division. For example, if a single Category 2 issue is divided into three Category 2 issues, then the result is an increased incremental cost of 100 percent for a total of 381 hours0.00441 days 0.106 hours 6.299603e-4 weeks 1.449705e-4 months to analyze the three subdivided Category 2 issues.

Initial LR: All incremental changes from the current Table B-1 to the proposed Table B-1 resulting from the revised LR GEIS would apply to initial LR applicants:

CostsNew Category 2 issues subdividing an existing Category 2 issue, as well as Category 1 issues that are changed to Category 2 issues, including consolidations, would incur costs because these issues would require a plant-specific evaluation. New Category 1 issues would also incur costs to research new and significant information.

BenefitsThe benefits of this rule would result from Category 2 issues that are changed to Category 1 issues, because those issues will no longer require plant-specific evaluation. Combining similar issues into a single category would also result in savings.

Future SLR: All the issues and findings in the proposed Table B-1 would apply to future SLR applicants:

CostsNo incremental costs would be incurred by addressing Category 2 issues because these costs would be incurred with or without the rule.

BenefitsThe rule would result in averted costs for Category 1 issues because those issues will no longer require plant-specific evaluation.

Near-Term and Submitted Applications, and Issued Subsequently Renewed Licenses: This group of licensees is expected to submit SLR applications before 2025. Near-term SLR applicants may choose from two options: evaluate all environmental impacts as plant-specific or rely on the current Table B-1 findings when developing their environmental report. This analysis assumes that, at their own risk, licensees seeking a near-term SLR would rely on the current Table B-1 findings when determining the scope and magnitude of environmental impacts of their subsequent license, pending completion of the final rule.10 This assumption results in cost reductions of approximately 40 percent. Once the rule becomes effective, new Category 1 and 2 issues, and changes from Category 1 to Category 2, including consolidations, would apply to this group of license renewal applicants. Therefore, this group of licensees will need to provide the NRC with additional environmental information as a result of the changes introduced by the rule. The NRC can acquire this information in multiple ways (e.g., the NRC can send requests 10 An amended SLR environmental report has been submitted for Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 that evaluates all environmental impacts as plant-specific. Other SLR applicants also could choose to submit amended environmental reports; however, this alternative is more expensive than Alternative 2 and was not analyzed.

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for additional information or requests for confirmatory information, or licensees can reevaluate and resubmit their application). This analysis recognizes that the licensee would reevaluate its application against the changes to Table B-1 and resubmit the application to the NRC.

CostsThe rule would result in additional costs associated with new Category 2 issues, subdividing an existing Category 2 issue, as well as Category 1 issues that are changed to Category 2 issues, including consolidations, because these issues would require plant-specific evaluation. Additional costs associated with new Category 1 issues to research new and significant information would be incurred. The licensee would have 1 year to comply, resulting in costs incurred in 2025.

BenefitsThe rule would address the gap in applicability for SLR.

Error! Reference source not found. presents a summary of the costs and benefits to license renewal applicants as a result of the proposed Table B-1.

Table 5 Industry Operation Costs Total (2022 dollars)a Year Applicant Group Undiscounted 7% NPV 3% NPV Initial LR Costs ($132,000) ($55,000) ($90,000) 2025-2035 Benefits $0 $0 $0 Initial LR Subtotal ($132,000) ($55,000) ($90,000)

Future SLR Costs $0 $0 $0 2025-2035 Benefits $94,534,000 $60,739,000 $77,220,000 Future SLR Subtotal $94,534,000 $60,739,000 $77,220,000 Near-Term and Submitted Applications, and Issued Subsequently Renewed Licenses Costs ($2,133,000) ($1,741,000) ($1,952,000) 2025 Benefits $0 $0 $0 Near-Term and Submitted Applications, and Issued Subsequently Renewed Licenses Subtotal ($2,133,000) ($1,741,000) ($1,952,000)

Industry Net Operation Benefit (Cost) $92,269,000 $58,943,000 $75,178,000 a Values rounded to the nearest thousand dollars.

3.5 NRC Implementation NRC implementation costs within the scope of this analysis of Alternative 2 are the costs of preparing a final rule, as well as efforts on guidance development associated with the rule.

Costs already incurred, including those activities performed by the NRC in making the regulatory decision (e.g., development of the proposed rule and associated guidance for public comment), are viewed as sunk costs and are excluded from this analysis. Error! Reference source not found. summarizes the costs and benefits of NRC rule implementation.

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Table 6 NRC Implementation NRC Total (2022 dollars)a, b No. of Contractor Year Activity Labor Hours Support Undiscounted 7% NPV 3% NPV Rate NRC prepares 2023 and issues 11,550 $143 $0 ($1,652,000) ($1,544,000) ($1,604,000) final rule NRC prepares 2023 and issues 1,000 $143 $900,000 ($1,043,000) ($975,000) ($1,013,000) final guidance NRC prepares 2024 and issues 6,160 $143 $0 ($881,000) ($769,000) ($830,000) final rule NRC prepares 2024 and issues 678 $143 $600,000 ($697,000) ($609,000) ($657,000) final guidance NRC Net Implementation Benefit (Cost) ($4,273,000) ($3,897,000) ($4,104,000) a Values rounded to the nearest thousand dollars.

b NRC activities performed to prepare and issue the proposed rule and associated supplemental guidance are sunk costs and not included in this analysis.

3.6 NRC Operation Alternative 2 activities affect the NRC environmental review time per license renewal application. The analysis specifies each Table B-1 issue that is evaluated quantitatively.

General assumptions: Assumptions about NRC operation are listed below:

Category 1 IssueA Category 1 issue is assumed to require, on average, 43 hours4.976852e-4 days 0.0119 hours 7.109788e-5 weeks 1.63615e-5 months of NRC staff labor to research new and significant information and, as applicable, include information in the supplement to the LR GEIS.

Category 2 IssueA Category 2 issue is assumed to require, on average, 174 hours0.00201 days 0.0483 hours 2.876984e-4 weeks 6.6207e-5 months of NRC staff labor to complete a plant-specific analysis and to present the information in the supplement to the LR GEIS.

Uncategorized IssueAn uncategorized issue is assumed to require, on average, 43 hours4.976852e-4 days 0.0119 hours 7.109788e-5 weeks 1.63615e-5 months of licensee staff labor to research new and significant information and, as applicable, include information in the environmental report.

Category ChangeThe net savings per change from Category 2 to Category 1 and the net cost per change from a Category 2 to Category 1 is 131 hours0.00152 days 0.0364 hours 2.166005e-4 weeks 4.98455e-5 months .

Issue ConsolidationCombining similar category issues from the 2013 LR GEIS into a single Category 1 or Category 2 issue in the proposed Table B-1 will result in an estimated 70 percent savings, on average, in labor time for each issue removed by consolidation.

Issue DivisionDividing a category issue from the 2013 LR GEIS into individual issues of the same category in the proposed Table B-1, on average, will result in an estimated 19

50 percent increase in cost, in labor time for each issue added by issue division. For example, if a single Category 2 issue is divided into three Category 2 issues, then the result is an increased incremental cost of 100 percent for a total of 174 hours0.00201 days 0.0483 hours 2.876984e-4 weeks 6.6207e-5 months to analyze the three subdivided Category 2 issues.

Error! Reference source not found. summarizes the cost savings impact of the changes to Table B-1 as a result of the rule to the NRC for license renewal applications.

Table 7 NRC Operation Costs Total (2022 dollars)a Year Applicant Group Undiscounted 7% NPV 3% NPV Initial LR Costs ($52,000) ($21,000) ($35,000) 2025-2035 Benefits $0 $0 $0 Initial LR Subtotal ($52,000) ($21,000) ($35,000)

Future SLR Costs $0 $0 $0 2025-2035 Benefits $36,882,000 $23,697,000 $30,127,000 Future SLR Subtotal $36,882,000 $23,697,000 $30,127,000 Near-Term and Submitted Applications, and Issued Subsequently Renewed Licenses Costs ($834,000) ($681,000) ($763,000) 2025 Benefits $0 $0 $0 Near-Term and Submitted Applications, and Issued Subsequently Renewed Licenses Subtotal ($834,000)b ($681,000)b ($763,000)b NRC Net Operation Benefit (Cost) $35,996,000 $22,995,000 $29,329,000 a Values rounded to the nearest thousand dollars.

b The NRC would also incur incremental costs to withdraw or amend any Commission orders as a result of the rule.

3.7 Improvements in Knowledge Alternative 2 would amend the regulations to include lessons learned and knowledge and experience gained from license renewal environmental reviews performed since development of the 2013 LR GEIS, which provides a significant source of new information. In addition, new research, findings, and other information were considered in evaluating the significance of impacts associated with initial LR and SLR.

3.8 Regulatory Clarity Alternative 2 would improve the clarity of the environmental issues identified in Table B-1 and provide consistency with other similar environmental issues (e.g., ecological resource issues) by more clearly describing the title of the issues, scope, and resources considered for issue findings. For example, Table B-1 issues have been divided into separate issues for clarity and consistency with the separate Federal statutes and interagency consultation requirements that 20

the NRC must consider with respect to Federally protected ecological resources. Also, the rule would remove the word initial from 10 CFR 51.53(c)(3), update the LR GEIS and associated guidance to apply to SLR, and make conforming changes in 10 CFR 51.53(c)(3)(ii) and 10 CFR 51.95(c).

3.9 Environmental Considerations Alternative 2 would amend the regulations to update Table B-1 and make other conforming changes in 10 CFR Part 51, which will improve the quality of the environmental information provided to the NRC and facilitate license renewal environmental reviews. This information is necessary for the NRC to ensure compliance with Federal environmental statutes and regulations and to evaluate the potential environmental effects of continued nuclear power plant operations.

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4

SUMMARY

OF THE RESULTS 4.1 Summary This regulatory analysis identifies both quantifiable and nonquantifiable costs and benefits that would result from Alternative 2 (rulemaking). Although quantifiable costs and benefits appear to be more tangible, decisionmakers should not discount costs and benefits that cannot be quantified. Such benefits or costs can be as important as or even more important than benefits or costs that can be quantified and monetized.

4.1.1 Quantified Net Benefits Error! Reference source not found. and Error! Reference source not found. summarize the estimated quantified costs and benefits for Alternative 2 compared to the regulatory baseline (Alternative 1).

Table 8 Summary of Totals by Licensee Group Total (2022 dollars)a Licensee Group Undiscounted 7% NPV 3% NPV Initial LR ($301,000) ($182,000) ($237,000)

Future SLR $127,537,000 $80,943,000 $103,643,000 Near-Term and Submitted Applications, and Issued ($4,143,000) ($3,480,000) ($3,838,000)

Subsequently Renewed Licenses Net Benefit (Cost) $123,093,000 $77,281,000 $99,568,000 a Values rounded to the nearest thousand dollars.

4.1.2 Nonquantified Benefits In addition to the quantified costs, the NRC has analyzed numerous costs and benefits that could not be monetized but would affect the general public, industry, and the NRC. Error!

Reference source not found. summarizes the quantified and qualitative costs and benefits for Alternative 2. The quantitative analysis used mean values.

Table 9 Summary of Totals Net Monetary Savings or (Costs) Nonquantified Benefits or (Costs)

Alternative 1: No Action

$0 None Alternative 2: Benefits:

Improvements in KnowledgeAlternative 2 Industry: (all provisions) would improve the quality of the information

$58.2 million using a 7% discount rate provided to the NRC and facilitate license

$74.3 million using a 3% discount rate renewal environmental reviews.

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Net Monetary Savings or (Costs) Nonquantified Benefits or (Costs)

NRC: (all provisions)

Regulatory ClarityAlternative 2 would improve

$19.1 million using a 7% discount rate the clarity and intent of the environmental

$25.2 million using a 3% discount rate requirements, including applicability to SLR, and provide consistency with other ecological resource issues.

Net Benefit (Cost): (all provisions)

Environmental ConsiderationsAlternative 2

$77.3 million using a 7% discount rate would provide the necessary information for the

$99.6 million using a 3% discount rate NRC to comply with Federal environmental statutes and regulations.

Costs:

None identified 4.2 Uncertainty Analysis The NRC completed a Monte Carlo sensitivity analysis for this regulatory analysis using the specialty software @Risk. The Monte Carlo approach answers the question, What distribution of net costs and benefits results from multiple draws of the probability distribution assigned to key variables?

4.2.1 Uncertainty Analysis Assumptions The NRC provides the following analysis of the variables with the greatest uncertainty on estimates of values. As noted above, the NRC performed this analysis with a Monte Carlo simulation analysis using the @Risk software program. Monte Carlo simulations involve introducing uncertainty into the analysis by replacing the point estimates of the variables used to estimate base case costs and benefits with probability distributions. By defining input variables as probability distributions instead of point estimates, the influence of uncertainty on the results of the analysis (i.e., the net benefits) can be modeled effectively.

The probability distributions chosen to represent the different variables in the analysis were bounded by the range-referenced input and the NRC staffs professional judgment. When defining the probability distributions for use in a Monte Carlo simulation, summary statistics are needed to characterize the distributions. These summary statistics include (1) the minimum, most likely, and maximum values of a program evaluation and review technique (PERT) distribution11. The NRC used the PERT distribution to reflect the relative spread and skewness of the distribution defined by the three estimates.

11 A PERT distribution is a special form of the beta distribution with specified minimum and maximum values.

The shape parameter is calculated from the defined most likely value. The PERT distribution is similar to a triangular distribution in that it has the same set of three parameters. Technically, it is a special case of a scaled beta (or beta general) distribution. The PERT distribution is generally considered superior to the triangular distribution when the parameters result in a skewed distribution because the smooth shape of the curve places less emphasis in the direction of skew. Similar to the triangular distribution, the PERT distribution is bounded on both sides and therefore may not be adequate for some modeling purposes if the capture of tail or extreme events is desired.

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Appendix A identifies the data elements, the distribution and summary statistic, and the mean value of the distribution used in the uncertainty analysis.

4.2.2 Uncertainty Analysis Results The NRC performed the Monte Carlo simulation by repeatedly recalculating the results 10,000 times. For each iteration, the values identified in Appendix A were chosen randomly from the probability distributions that define the input variables. The values of the output variables were recorded for each iteration, and these values were used to define the resultant probability distribution.

For the analysis shown in Figures 1, 2, and 3, the NRC ran 10,000 simulations in which it changed the key variables to assess the resulting effect on costs and benefits. Figures 1, 2, and 3, display the histograms of the incremental costs and benefits from the regulatory baseline (Alternative 1) for each affected entity and the total net benefit of the rule. The analysis shows that both industry and the NRC have a greater than 99 percent likelihood of incurring benefits that exceed the costs if the NRC issues this rule.

49.94 66.57 5.0% 90.0% 5.0%

Industry / 7% NPV Minimum $42,380,473 Maximum $73,663,102 Mean $58,185,794 Std Dev $5,009,103 Values 10000 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 Values in Millions ($)

Figure 1 Total Industry Net Benefits (Costs) (7 Percent NPV)Alternative 2 24

17.07 21.09 5.0% 90.0% 5.0%

NRC / 7% NPV Minimum $15,629,552 Maximum $22,482,304 Mean $19,097,981 Std Dev $1,221,903 Values 10000 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 Values in Millions ($)

Figure 2 Total NRC Net Benefits (Costs) (7 Percent NPV)Alternative 2 68.87 85.93 5.0% 90.0% 5.0%

Net Benefit (Cost) / 7% NPV Minimum $60,986,526 Maximum $93,311,703 Mean $77,283,775 Std Dev $5,159,078 Values 10000 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 Values in Millions ($)

Figure 3 Total Net Benefits (Cost) (7 Percent NPV)Alternative 2 25

Error! Reference source not found. presents descriptive statistics on the uncertainty analysis.

Table 10 Descriptive Statistics for Uncertainty Results (7 Percent NPV)

Incremental Cost-Benefit (2022 Million Dollars)

Uncertainty Result Min Mean Max 5% 95%

Net Industry Benefit (Cost) $42 $58 $74 $50 $67 Net NRC Benefit (Cost) $16 $19 $22 $17 $21 Total Net Benefit (Cost) $61 $77 $93 $69 $86 This table displays the key statistical results, including the 90 percent confidence interval in which the net benefits would fall between the 5 percent and 95 percent values.

Figure 4 shows a tornado diagram that identifies the cost drivers for this rule. This figure ranks the variables based on their contribution to the uncertainty in cost. The largest cost driver is the amount of time for licensees to perform an environmental analysis for new Category 2 issues, followed by the amount of time for the NRC to review the environmental analyses for new Category 2 issues. These two variables are the largest cost drivers and generate the largest variations in the total net benefit due to uncertainty. The remaining cost drivers show diminishing variation in the total net benefit.

Net Benefit (Cost) / 7% NPV Inputs Ranked by Effect on Output Mean Industry hours per Cat 2 issue $72,207,333 $82,427,668 NRC hours per Cat 2 issue $75,276,797 $79,351,482 Industry hours per Cat 1 issue $76,127,307 $78,967,784 NRC hours per Cat 1 issue $76,766,379 $77,967,165 Input High NRC hours per unclasssified issue $76,936,967 $77,696,409 Input Low Industry cost to update procedures $76,937,089 $77,590,359 NRC savings from consolidated issues $76,896,927 $77,525,874 Licensee savings from consolidated issues $76,955,833 $77,538,285 Industry hours per uncategorized issue $76,991,794 $77,547,402 Baseline = $77,283,775 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 Values in Millions ($)

Figure 4 Tornado DiagramTotal Averted Costs7 Percent NPV 26

4.2.3 Summary of Uncertainty Analysis The simulation analysis shows that the estimated mean benefit (i.e., positive averted costs or savings) for this rule is $77 million, with 90 percent confidence interval that the net benefit is between $61 million and $93 million using a 7 percent discount rate. The NRCs quantitative estimates show that the rule alternative (Alternative 2) is cost-beneficial to industry and the NRC.

4.3 Disaggregation To comply with the guidance in NUREG/BR-0058, Section 4.3.2, Criteria for the Treatment of Individual Requirements, the NRC performed a screening review to determine whether any individual requirement would be unnecessary to achieve the objectives of the rulemaking. The staff did not identify any unnecessary or unrelated provisions; therefore, it did not perform a disaggregation for this regulatory analysis.

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5 DECISION RATIONALE AND IMPLEMENTATION The assessment of total costs and benefits discussed above leads the NRC to conclude that the rule, if implemented, would maintain protection of the environment, increase regulatory clarity in the license renewal process, increase regulatory consistency, and reduce the regulatory burden for industry and the NRC. Based solely on quantified costs and benefits, the regulatory analysis shows that the rulemaking is justified because the total quantified benefits of the regulatory action will exceed the costs of the final action, for all discount rates up to 7 percent. Considering nonquantified costs and benefits, the regulatory analysis shows that the rulemaking is justified because the number and significance of the nonquantified benefits outweigh the nonquantified costs. Therefore, considering both quantified and nonquantified costs and benefits indicates that the benefits of the rule outweigh the identified quantitative and qualitative impacts attributable to the rule.

The NRC assumed for this analysis that this final rule would be effective in 2024. In addition to the revised LR GEIS (Revision 2), the agency will issue a revision to Regulatory Guide 4.2, Supplement 1 (Revision 2), and NUREG-1555, Supplement 1 (Revision 2), with the final rule.

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BLS, Archived Consumer Price Index Supplement Files: May 2022 Historical CPI-U, Historical Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U): U.S. City Average, All Items, U.S. Department of Labor, June 2022. Available at https://www.bls.gov/cpi/tables/; last accessed on July 12, 2022.

Code of Federal Regulations (CFR), Environmental Protection Regulations for Domestic Licensing and Related Regulatory Functions, Part 51, Chapter I, Title 10, Energy.

CFR, Fees for Facilities, Materials, Import and Export Licenses, and Other Regulatory Services Under the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as Amended, Part 170, Chapter I, Title 10, Energy.

Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Regulatory Analysis, Circular No. A-4, September 2003. Available at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/circulars_a004_a-4/.

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), A Handbook for Value-Impact Assessment, NUREG/CR-3568, December 1983 (Agencywide Documents Access and Management System Accession No. ML062830096).

NRC, Generic Environmental Impact Statement for License Renewal of Nuclear Plants, NUREG-1437, May 1996.

NRC, Environmental Review for Renewal of Nuclear Power Plant Operating Licenses, Federal Register, 61 FR 28467, June 5, 1996.

NRC, Generic Environmental Impact Statement for License Renewal of Nuclear Plants, NUREG-1437, Revision 1, June 2013a.

NRC, Preparation of Environmental Reports for Nuclear Power Plant License Renewal Applications, Regulatory Guide 4.2, Supplement 1, Revision 1, June 2013b (ML13067A354).

NRC, Standard Review Plans for Environmental Reviews for Nuclear Power Plants: Operating License Renewal, NUREG-1555, Supplement 1, Revision 1, June 2013c (ML13106A246).

NRC, Revisions to Environmental Review for Renewal of Nuclear Power Plant Operating Licenses, Federal Register, 78 FR 37281, June 20, 2013.

NRC, Regulatory Analysis Guidelines of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, NUREG/BR-0058, draft Revision 5, January 2020 (ML19261A277).

29

NRC, Rulemaking Plan for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating LicensesEnvironmental Review (RIN 3150-AK32; NRC-2018-0296), SECY-21-0066, July 22, 2021a (ML20364A008).

NRC, Regulatory Analysis for the 10 CFR Part 51, Advanced Nuclear Reactor Generic Environmental Impact Statement Proposed Rule, December 14, 2021b (ML21222A057).

NRC, Commission Memorandum and Order CLI-22-03, February 24, 2022a (ML22055A521, ML22055A526, ML22055A527, ML22055A533, ML22055A554).

NRC, Commission Memorandum and Order CLI-22-02, February 24, 2022b (ML22055A496).

NRC, Commission Memorandum and Order CLI-22-04, February 24, 2022c (ML22055A557).

NRC, Staff RequirementsSECY-21-0066Rulemaking Plan for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating LicensesEnvironmental Review (RIN 3150-AK32; NRC-2018-0296),

SRM-SECY-21-0066, February 2022d (ML22053A308).

NRC, Rulemaking Plan for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating LicensesEnvironmental Review (RIN 3150-AK32; NRC-2018-0296), SECY-22-0024, March 25, 2022e (ML22062B643).

NRC, Staff RequirementsSECY-22-0024Rulemaking Plan for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating LicensesEnvironmental Review (RIN 3150-AK32; NRC-2018-0296),

SRM-SECY-22-0024, April 5, 2022f (ML22096A035).

NRC, Commission Memorandum and Order CLI-22-06, June 3, 2022g (ML22154A215).

NRC, Commission Memorandum and Order CLI-22-07, June 3, 2022h (ML22154A217).

NRC, Staff RequirementsSECY-22-0036Rulemaking Plan for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating Licenses10-Year Environmental Regulatory Update (NRC-2022-0087),

SRM-SECY-22-0036, June 17, 2022i (ML22168A130).

NRC, Generic Environmental Impact Statement for License Renewal of Nuclear Plants, Draft NUREG-1437, Revision 2, Vols. 1 and 2 (ML22173A108).

NRC, Preparation of Environmental Reports for Nuclear Power Plant License Renewal Applications, Draft Regulatory Guide 4.2, Supplement 1, Revision 2 (Draft Regulatory Guide DG-4027) (ML22165A072).

NRC, Standard Review Plans for Environmental Reviews for Nuclear Power Plants: Operating License Renewal, Draft NUREG-1555, Supplement 1, Revision 2 (ML22165A070).

30

APPENDIX A SUPPORTING INFORMATION Table A-1 Proposed Changes to Table B-1 Issue Table B-1 Issues Category Proposed Changes to Table B-1 No.

Land Use 1 Onsite land use 1 No change 2 Offsite land use 1 No change Offsite land use in 3 transmission line 1 No change right-of-ways (ROWs)

Visual Resources 4 Aesthetic impacts 1 No change Air Quality Revised issue title from Air quality impacts (all plants) and the order of 5 Air quality impacts 1 the topics discussed in the finding (operations aspects followed by refurbishment)

Air quality effects of Revised issue finding by adding the 6 1 transmission lines phrase from transmission lines Noise 7 Noise impacts 1 No change Geologic Environment Revised issue finding (i.e., that the environmental review does not 8 Geology and soils 1 consider the impacts of geological hazards on nuclear power plants)

Surface Water Resources Surface water use and 9 quality (non-cooling system 1 No change impacts)

Altered current patterns at 10 intake and discharge 1 No change structures 11 Altered salinity gradients 1 No change Altered thermal stratification 12 1 No change of lakes Scouring caused by 13 1 No change discharged cooling water Discharge of metals in 14 1 No change cooling system effluent Discharge of biocides, 15 sanitary wastes, and minor 1 No change chemical spills A-1

Issue Table B-1 Issues Category Proposed Changes to Table B-1 No.

Surface water use conflicts 16 (plants with once-through 1 No change cooling systems)

Surface water use conflicts (plants with cooling ponds or 17 2 No change cooling towers using makeup water from a river)

Effects of dredging on 18 1 No change surface water quality Revised issue finding by adding the Temperature effects on 19 1 phrase during the license renewal sediment transport capacity term for clarity Groundwater Resources Groundwater contamination Revised issue finding by adding 20 and use (non-cooling system 1 U.S. and adding the acronym impacts) EPA for clarity Groundwater use conflicts (plants that withdraw less 21 1 No change than 100 gallons per minute

[gpm])

Groundwater use conflicts (plants that withdraw more 22 2 No change than 100 gallons per minute

[gpm])

Groundwater use conflicts (plants with closed-cycle 23 cooling systems that 2 No change withdraw makeup water from a river)

Groundwater quality 24 degradation resulting from 1 No change water withdrawals Consolidated Category 1 issue, Groundwater quality degradation (cooling ponds in salt marshes),

with Category 2 issue, Groundwater Groundwater quality quality degradation (plants with 25 degradation (plants with 2 cooling ponds at inland sites) and cooling ponds) includes saltwater intrusion and encroachment on adjacent surface water and groundwater quality as site-specific factors for cooling ponds Radionuclides released to 26 2 No change groundwater A-2

Issue Table B-1 Issues Category Proposed Changes to Table B-1 No.

Terrestrial Resources Revised issue title from Effects on terrestrial resources (non-cooling Non-cooling system impacts 27 2 system impacts) and scope of on terrestrial resources issues and resources considered in the finding Exposure of terrestrial Minor revisions to issue finding for 28 1 organisms to radionuclides clarity Cooling system impacts on terrestrial resources (plants Revised scope of issues and 29 1 with once-through cooling resources considered in the finding systems or cooling ponds)

Revised issue title from Cooling tower impacts on vegetation (plants Cooling tower impacts on 30 1 with cooling towers) and scope of terrestrial plants issues and resources considered in the finding Bird collisions with plant Minor revisions to issue finding for 31 structures and transmission 1 clarity lines Water use conflicts with terrestrial resources (plants Revised scope of issues and 32 with cooling ponds or cooling 2 resources considered in the finding towers using makeup water from a river)

Transmission line right-of-way (ROW) management Revised scope of issues and 33 1 impacts on terrestrial resources considered in the finding resources Revised issue title from Electromagnetic fields on flora and Electromagnetic field effects fauna (plants, agricultural crops, 34 on terrestrial plants and 1 honeybees, wildlife, livestock) and animals scope of issues and resources considered in the finding A-3

Issue Table B-1 Issues Category Proposed Changes to Table B-1 No.

Aquatic Resources Revised issue title from Impingement and entrainment of aquatic organisms (plants with once-through cooling systems or Impingement mortality and cooling ponds) and issue findings to entrainment of aquatic reflect revised Clean Water Act 35 organisms (plants with 2 Section 316(b) requirements and to once-through cooling consolidate the impingement systems or cooling ponds) component of the Category 1 issue, Losses from predation, parasitism, and disease among organisms exposed to sublethal stresses Revised issue title from Impingement and entrainment of aquatic organisms (plants with cooling towers) and issue findings to Impingement mortality and reflect revised Clean Water Act entrainment of aquatic 36 1 Section 316(b) requirements and to organisms (plants with consolidate the impingement cooling towers) component of the Category 1 issue, Losses from predation, parasitism, and disease among organisms exposed to sublethal stresses Revised issue title from Entrainment Entrainment of of phytoplankton and zooplankton 37 phytoplankton and 1 (all plants) and scope of issues and zooplankton resources considered in the finding Revised issue title from Thermal Effects of thermal effluents impacts on aquatic organisms on aquatic organisms (plants (plants with once-through cooling 38 2 with once-through cooling systems or cooling ponds) and systems or cooling ponds) scope of issues and resources considered in the finding Revised issue title from Thermal Effects of thermal effluents impacts on aquatic organisms 39 on aquatic organisms (plants 1 (plants with cooling towers) and with cooling towers) scope of issues and resources considered in the finding A-4

Issue Table B-1 Issues Category Proposed Changes to Table B-1 No.

Revised issue title from Infrequently reported thermal impacts (all plants) and consolidated Category 1 issue Effects of cooling water discharge on dissolved oxygen, gas Infrequently reported effects 40 1 supersaturation, and eutrophication of thermal effluents and the thermal effluent component of the Category 1 issue, Losses from predation, parasitism, and disease among organisms exposed to sublethal stresses Effects of nonradiological Revised scope of issues and 41 contaminants on aquatic 1 resources considered in the finding organisms Exposure of aquatic Revised scope of issues and 42 1 organisms to radionuclides resources considered in the finding Revised issue title from Effects of Effects of dredging on dredging on aquatic organisms and 43 1 aquatic resources scope of issues and resources considered in the finding Water use conflicts with aquatic resources (plants Revised scope of issues and 44 with cooling ponds or cooling 2 resources considered in the finding towers using makeup water from a river)

Revised issue title from Effects on aquatic resources (non-cooling Non-cooling system impacts 45 1 system impacts) and scope of on aquatic resources issues and resources considered in the finding Impacts of transmission line right-of-way (ROW) Revised scope of issues and 46 1 management on aquatic resources considered in the finding resources Federally Protected Ecological Resourcesa Revised issue title from Threatened, Endangered Species Act: endangered, and protected species Federally listed species and and essential fish habitat and 47 critical habitats under 2 divided issue into three issues for U.S. Fish and Wildlife each Federal statute and Service jurisdiction interagency consultation requirement Endangered Species Act:

Federally listed species and 48 critical habitats under 2 Subdivided Category 2 issue National Marine Fisheries Service jurisdiction A-5

Issue Table B-1 Issues Category Proposed Changes to Table B-1 No.

Magnuson-Stevens Act:

49 2 Subdivided Category 2 issue essential fish habitat National Marine Sanctuaries 50 2 New Category 2 issue Act: sanctuary resources Historic and Cultural Resources Historic and cultural Revised scope of issues and 51 2 resources resources considered in the finding Socioeconomics Employment and income, 52 1 No change recreation and tourism Revised issue title from Tax 53 Tax revenue 1 revenues Community services and 54 1 No change education 55 Population and housing 1 No change 56 Transportation 1 No change Human Health Radiation exposures to plant 57 1 No change workers Radiation exposures to the 58 1 No change public Revised issue title from Human 59 Chemical hazards 1 health impact from chemicals Microbiological hazards to 60 1 No change plant workers Revised issue title from Microbiological hazards to the public (plants with cooling ponds or canals or cooling towers that discharge to a Microbiological hazards to river) and issue findings to reflect 61 2 the public the fact that microbiological organisms are a concern wherever receiving waters that received thermal effluents are accessible to the public Revised issue title from Chronic Electromagnetic fields 62 Uncategorized effects of electromagnetic fields (EMFs)

(EMFs)

Physical occupational 63 1 No change hazards 64 Electric shock hazards 2 No change Postulated Accidents 65 Design-basis accidents 1 No change A-6

Issue Table B-1 Issues Category Proposed Changes to Table B-1 No.

Revised from a Category 2 issue to a Category 1 issue and issue finding revised to reflect the fact that the probability-weighted consequences 66 Severe accidents 1 of severe accidents are small and to reflect knowledge gained that severe accident mitigation alternatives do not warrant further plant-specific analysis Environmental Justice Renamed issue title from Minority Impacts on minority and low-income populations and populations, low-income 67 2 issue finding revised to consider populations, and Indian Indian Tribes and subsistence Tribes consumption Waste Management Low-level waste storage and 68 1 No change disposal Onsite storage of spent 69 1 No change nuclear fuel Offsite radiological impacts 70 of spent nuclear fuel and 1 No change high-level waste disposal Mixed-waste storage and 71 1 No change disposal Nonradioactive waste 72 1 No change storage and disposal Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Change 73 Greenhouse gas impacts on 1 New Category 1 issue climate change 74 Climate change impacts on 2 New Category 2 issue environmental resources Cumulative Effects Revised issue title from Cumulative impacts and issue finding revised to 75 Cumulative effects 2 reflect changes to Council on Environmental Quality definition at 40 CFR 1508.1(g)(3)

Uranium Fuel Cycle Offsite radiological impacts individual impacts from other 76 1 No change than the disposal of spent fuel and high-level waste A-7

Issue Table B-1 Issues Category Proposed Changes to Table B-1 No.

Offsite radiological impacts collective impacts from other 77 1 No change than the disposal of spent fuel and high-level waste Nonradiological impacts of 78 1 No change the uranium fuel cycle 79 Transportation 1 No change Termination of Nuclear Power Plant Operations and Decommissioning Termination of plant 80 operations and 1 No change decommissioning a Three of the four Federally protected ecological resources issues are not new issues. Issues 47-49 were subdivided from an existing issue in accordance with applicable Federal statute and interagency consultation requirements. Issue 50 specifically addresses a newly identified Federal statute and interagency consultation requirement.

Note: All issues in Table B-1 fully account for SLR and are based on the findings described in the revised NUREG-1437, Generic Environmental Impact Statement for License Renewal of Nuclear Plants (LR GEIS).

Table A-2 Major Assumptions and Input Data Mean Low Most Likely High Source or Basis of Description Distribution Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate General Input Analysis base year 2022 NRC assumption Year NRC rule is 2024 NRC assumption effective Calculated value.

Compliance 2025 (NRC rule year + 1 Effective Date year)

Timeframe is Timeframe of 10 consistent with next analysis (years)

LR GEIS update Alternative discount NUREG/BR-0058, 3%

factor OMB guidance Principal discount NUREG/BR-0058, 7%

factor OMB guidance NRC staff hourly

$143 NRC calculation labor rate BLS.gov table hourly rate was inflated to 2022 dollars using Licensee average CPI-U values and a

$167 PERT $131.88 $169.57 $191.31 labor rate 2.4 multiplier was applied to account for fringe and indirect management costs No. of parent 18 NRC estimate companies No. of licensees yet to request an initial 1 NRC estimate license renewal A-8

Mean Low Most Likely High Source or Basis of Description Distribution Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate No. of licensees with near-term and submitted 10 NRC estimate applications, and issued subsequently renewed licenses No. of licensees with future subsequently 44 NRC estimate renewed licenses Alternative 1 Input Data for Alternative 2 Averted Costs NRC Inputs Hours per Cat 1 43 PERT 39 43 48 NRC estimate issue Hours per Cat 2 174 PERT 156 174 191 NRC estimate issue Hours per 43 PERT 39 43 48 NRC estimate uncategorized issue Savings from 70% PERT 60% 70% 80% NRC estimate consolidated issues Increased NRC estimate based percentage cost 50% PERT 40% 50% 60% on historical data and from subdividing expert opinion issues Industry Inputs Hours per Cat 1 95 PERT 86 95 105 NRC estimate issue Hours per Cat 2 381 PERT 343 381 420 NRC estimate issue Hours per 95 PERT 86 95 105 NRC estimate uncategorized issue Savings from 70% PERT 60% 70% 80% NRC estimate consolidated issues Increased NRC estimate based percentage cost 50% PERT 40% 50% 60% on historical data and from subdividing expert opinion issues Alternative 2 Input Data NRC Inputs Hours to prepare 17,710 PERT 15,939 17,710 19,481 NRC estimate and issue final rule Hours to prepare and issue final 1,678 PERT 1,510 1,678 1,846 NRC estimate guidance NRC contractor support to prepare

$1,500,000 PERT $1,350,000 $1,500,000 $1,650,000 NRC estimate and issue final guidance Category 2 to Category 1 (hours 131 NRC calculation saved)

Category 1 to Category 2 (hours 131 NRC calculation added)

NRC calculation Cat 1 consolidation 30 based on consolidated (hours saved) issues savings A-9

Mean Low Most Likely High Source or Basis of Description Distribution Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate Estimate NRC calculation Cat 2 consolidation 122 based on consolidated (hours saved) issues savings Industry Inputs Parent company to review regulations

$50,000 PERT $45,000 $50,000 $55,000 NRC estimate and update procedures Category 2 to Category 1 (hours 286 NRC calculation saved)

Category 1 to Category 2 (hours 286 NRC calculation added)

NRC calculation Cat 1 consolidation 67 based on consolidated (hours saved) issues savings NRC calculation Cat 2 consolidation 267 based on consolidated (hours saved) issues savings Table A-3 Operating Nuclear Power Plants by Licensee Group12 Near-Term and Submitted Calendar Initial LR Future SLRa Applications, and Issued Year Subsequently Renewed Licenses Arkansas Nuclear Unit 1b Brunswick Unit 1 and 2 Browns Ferry Units 1, 2, and 3 Calvert Cliffs Unit 1 and 2 H.B. Robinson Unit 2 Cooper Unit 1 Monticello D.C. Cook Unit 1 and 2 Oconee Units 1, 2, and 3 Dresden Units 2 and 3 North Anna Units 1 and 2 2025 Edwin I. Hatch Unit 1 and 2 Peach Bottom Units 2 and 3 James A. FitzPatrick Point Beach Units 1 and 2 Millstone Unit 2 and 3 St. Lucie Units 1 and 2 Nine Mile Point Unit 1 and 2 Turkey Point Units 3 and 4 Prairie Island Units 1 and 2 V.C. Summer Unit 1 Quad Cities Units 1 and 2 R.E. Ginna Beaver Valley Unit 1 and 2 2026 Salem Unit 1 and 2 Davis-Besse 2027 Joseph M. Farley Unit 1 and 2 2028 Arkansas Nuclear Unit 2 2029 2030 Sequoyah Unit 1 and 2 2031 McGuire Unit 1 and 2 LaSalle County Unit 1 and 2 2032 Susquehanna Unit 1 and 2 12 Data in Table A-3 is current as of August 15, 2022.

A-10

Near-Term and Submitted Calendar Initial LR Future SLRa Applications, and Issued Year Subsequently Renewed Licenses Catawba Units 1 and 2 2033 Columbia Byron Unit 1 and 2 Callaway Unit 1 2034 Grand Gulf Unit 1 Limerick Unit 1 and 2 Waterford Unit 3 Fermi Unit 2 Palo Verde Unit 1, 2, and 3 2035 Watts Bar Unit 1 River Bend Unit 1 Wolf Creek Unit 1 a.Future SLRs are estimated based on the current license expiration date.

b.Arkansas Nuclear One Power Plant intends to submit separate applications for Unit 1 and 2.

A-11

PKG: ML22165A003; Regulatory Analysis: ML22165A008 OFFICE NMSS/REFS/RASB NMSS/REFS/RASB/TL QTE NMSS/REFS/RASB/BC NMSS/SLED/D NAME PNoto FSchofer JDaughtery CBladey THolahan DATE 8/3/2022 8/11/2022 8/25/2022 9/21/2022 OFFICE NMSS/D OGC NRR/DD EDO NAME JLubinski DDorman DATE

SECY-22-0109, - Enclosure 4 - Proposed Rule - Draft Regulatory Analysis for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating Licenses - Environmental Review

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SECY-22-0109, - Enclosure 4 - Proposed Rule - Draft Regulatory Analysis for Renewing Nuclear Power Plant Operating Licenses - Environmental Review

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