ML12340A652
| ML12340A652 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 01/31/2005 |
| From: | Dotson L, Jackie Jones Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, Sandia |
| To: | |
| SECY RAS | |
| References | |
| RAS 22883, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, Job Code J3103, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01 | |
| Download: ML12340A652 (4) | |
Text
NYS000406 United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Official Hearing Exhibit Submitted: June 29, 2012 Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc. EXCERPT In the Matter of:
(Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3) c:..\,.~""R REGlI~;. ASLBP #: 07-858-03-LR-BD01
- l~'~...
Docket #: 05000247 l 05000286 Exhibit #: NYS000406-00-BD01 Identified: 10/15/2012
- 0 Admitted: 10/15/2012 Withdrawn:
~ ~
....,,1-
? ~
0.... Rejected: Stricken:
- il Other:
NUREG/CR-6863 SAND2004-5900 Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for l'"-l ucIesr Power Plants Manuscript Completed: December 2004 Date Pubiished: January 2005 Prepared by L.J. Dotson, J. Jones Sandia National Laboratories P.O. Box 5800 Albuquerque, NM 87185 D. Schneck, NRC Project Manager R. Sullivan, l',,'RC Technical Lead Prepared for Division of Preparedness and Response Office oiNucie8l' Security and incident Response U.S. Nudear Regulatory Commission Washington, DC 20555-0001 l\rn.C Job Code J3103 OAGI0001514_00003
Abstract Since the pubiication ofNUREGiCR-483 i, Stale of the Art in Evacuation Time Estimate Studies jor Nuciear Power Piants, technoiogies supporting the deveiopment of Evacuation Time Estimates (ETEs) have substantiaiiy changed and additionai evacuation considerations have emerged. ETEs are part of the pianning basis for each nuciear power piant {Nl'P), and as such, ETE studies are required to be performed by iicensees to estimate the time needed to evacuate the pubiic in the uniikeiy event of a serious accident. As advancements in new technoiogies that support evacuations and evacuation pianning continue, and as new information on evacuations becomes avaiiabie, it is important that these technoiogies and information be considered in deveiopment of an ETE.
Paperwork Reduction Act Statement The information collections contained in this NUREG are covered bv the requirements of 10 CFR Parts 50, 52, and 110, which were approved by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), approval number 3150-0011, -of51 and -0036. - -
Public Protection Notification The NRC may not conduct or sponsor, and a person is not required to respond to, a request for information or an information collection requirement unless the requesting document displays a currently valid OMB control number.
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sectors t1-mt encompass the entire area (see Figure 1), a.t"1d are subdivided at about 3.2 a.."ld 8 kaT!
(about 2 wid 5 miles).
The wind diiection at the time of the incident will determi.1.e the iinpacted sectors. An evacuation of the 3.2lG-n (about 2 mile) radius and the dovv'Ilwi.*1d sectors win form a keyhole configu.I.""ation. \Vhld direction may V~POIf \vithin t.'1e EPZ and local assessment oft..~e wi...,d conditions may support li..Ttiting t..lte sectors of t..'te evacuation to the sector containi.~g the plu..T.e and a single sector on either side, or may require expa..'1di..'1g the area of evacuation to i..'1clude additional sectors. It is import3...'1t to u.'1derstand t.lte meteorological assessment capabilities
,"vithin the EPZ for potential use i..'1 development of scenarios. The plume exposure path\vay is the about 16-lan (about IO-mile) EPZ, a..'1d t.lte area affected is generaHyt.'le sector or sectors that the plume touches and the adjoining sectors on either side.
2.1.1 Emergency Response Planning Areas Emergency Response Planni.ig Areas (ERPAs) are defined areas located within th.e EPZ for which emergency response plans have been developed. These areas are tJ'p ical1y defined by geographic or political boundaries to support emergency response plaruiing and may also be referred to as subareas, protective action areas, or other local tennmology. There illay be several ERPAs depending on L'ie specific cha..~cteristics of L1.c EPZ. Fig..rre 1 identifies a conceptual layout of 11 ERrAs witl'..in an EPZ. State and local emergency response agencies provide evacuation information to the public tl'll'oug..'1 calendars a.."'1d ot.'ler mear..s. It is i..-npor+..ant to engage t..'iese agencies early to ensure that data a,.-:td asslunptions used in the ETE calculations are consistent w*ith the respOl"'..se pla.~s.
Protective actior~ are typically implemented by ERP~A.... L'1 the event of an evacuation, t..'le sectors to be evacuated wil! cross ERP~A. . bOu.'lda. . ies. Each of Lite ERP*.4...s that ~"'e \vithin t.'1e affected sectors v{ould be evacuated. Data obtained at L'1e ERP~A... level should be used in calculating the ETE for the evacuated area identified in each scen~ric.
"" Demand Estimation Demand estinurtion is the systematic approach used to identifj the total number of evacuees by assessing population groups S4-"ld the expected mode oftra..."1sportation. Demographic data, togetJlcr with h"1fo11l"'..ation and assUtTtptions on population groups and vehicle occup~~cy rates, support detenr.i.*lution of the number of vehicles t.l.~t will be e*vacuating the area.
Evacuation trips do not begin insta.'1taneous!y after a \v~Y"tling to evacuate. There is a delay bet'..veen the time t.lte public is notified to evacuate and the time at \vhich the actual evacuation begi.."~. This delay va..ries by population segment, person, household, time of I'I<:lIY, a.'1d !ocatior..,
a..'1.d will i..ttfluence traffic loading rates onto the transport.ation nenlfork. The traffic loading rate represents the number of vehicles that would attempt to enter t.lte road\vay nenvork at any given time after the evacuation notification, al'ld it should be treated as a probability distribution in Llte ETE calculation. Telephone surveys, using a statistically defensible sample size, can provide better data tha.l1 generalized assumptions. This approach will reduce the uncert..ainty in the dew..a..'ld estLrnation.
There a.re a va..riety of ways to esti!!l.ate populations; therefore, it is necessa..ry to docll..'Uent the approach a..'ld provide sufficient det~il on th.e basis for the population data used. For t.lte dern2...11d estimation, th.ree potential population segments sh-BH be considered: perman.en! residents, tra.'lsients, a!ld persons in special facilities (NRC, 1980a). Penna...'lent residents include those people having a residence in t.l,e area. The pennal1ent resident population is generally derived 5
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from cep..sus data. The Census Bureau is currently makLflg a tra.n..sition to supplement the decerJlial data on an. anTlual
.. basis for large urban areas a..l1d on a five-year basis for ru.ral
. aW1d small urban areas. This may provide a mea..'1S to obtaLll more current population data for developing and updating ETEs. The Cep..sus Bureau also maintains data on populations with disabilities which may be helpfi!l in determining special transportation needs. The nu. . .nber of permanent residents shall be estimated using the LT.S. Census data or otlter reliable data, adjusted as necessa..ry, for growth (NRC, 1980a).
The transient population group i.llc!udes visitors, tourists, shoppers, employees not residing in the are~ and other people visiti..'1g the area temporarily. The diversity of this group requires a variety of means to esti.1!1ate the population and tl1.ay require a different approach for each segment of the transient population. The first task is to identify the potentia! transient locations, including businesses, shopping centers and maHs parks, recreation facilities, and special events, where j
app!ic~h!e. Once the tra..rlsient locations are identifieLL a systenlatic approach to determining the population of the group should be employed~ Seasonal characteristics of the tra..llsient group should be considered. For insta.nce some parlc-s or beaches may he closed during the winter j
months, and Lllus should not be Lncluded in that scenario. Care should be t~lcen not to double count LraII...sient populations. For example; motel capacities may be ihH in the evenings but j empty during the day when tourists are visiting parks or other areas that wi!! be included in the capacity calculations.
To determine the number of employees who work in the EPZ, but do not live in the EPZ, statistically defensible surveys may be necessary, combined with local and state statistical data.
Some malls and shopping centers maintain statistics on the number of shoppers. In some cases, it may be necessary to count parking spaces to estimate populations for these facilities. State parks frequently keep data on the number of visitors per year and per season. If this information is not available. counting Darking SDaces mav SUDDort the DODulation estimate. Care should be taken to avoid double counting vehlcles belonging to pemianent residents who use the facilities.
Soecial facilities include schools, day care centers. hospitals, nursing homes. prisons. and anv special events facilities. A detailed iist of special facilities shOUld be developed in order to aSsess each facility on an individual basis. The population estimate for these faciJiiies may be obtained by contacting the facilities and should consider the maximum occupancy rates. A percentage of this population may be expected to be evacuated by family or friends raiher than by public -
transportation; however, care should be taken not to underestimate special transportation needs.
Seasonal changes for schools and day care centers should be considered. Special facilities will have individual transportation requirements for evacuation, which may include buses, vans, ambulances, and automobiles. Furthermore, some special facilities may relocate their residents to other special facilities outside of the EPZ, such as prisons and hospitals, which may be a considerable distance away. This may increase the time to evacuate a facility if return trips are necessary. In some cases, double counting is necessary, such as school children who are counted as permanent residents and as special facility populations, because in some scenarios the school chfIdren may evacuate from school and in other scenarios they may evacuate from home (NRC, 1992).
In addition to the three defined popUlation groups, returning commuters and vehicles traveling through the area during the event should also be considered. Returning commuters include permanent residents who work outside the EPZ and return home before evacuating as a family group. Residents of the EPZ who are not at home (i.e., shopping, at parks, etc.) at the time of the evacuation notice may also return home prior to evacuating. Similarly, when special events occur within the EPZ, residents attending these events may return home prior to evacuating.
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