ML22091A307
| ML22091A307 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Palo Verde  |
| Issue date: | 04/01/2022 |
| From: | Bernat S Arizona Public Service Co |
| To: | Document Control Desk, Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| References | |
| 102-08421-JF/SMB | |
| Download: ML22091A307 (367) | |
Text
10 CFR 50, Appendix E 102-08421-JF/SMB Palo Verde April 1, 2022 Nuclear Generating Station 5871 S. Wintersburg Road Tonopah, AZ 85354 ATTN: Document Control Desk U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, DC 20555-0001
Subject:
Palo Verde Nuclear Generation Station (PVNGS)
Units 1, 2, and 3 and Independent Spent Fuel Storage Installation (ISFSI)
Docket Nos. 50-528, 50-529, 50-530 and 72-44 License Nos. NPF-41, NPF-51 and NPF-74 PVNGS Evacuation Time Estimate Study Pursuant to Part 50, Appendix E of Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR) Arizona Public Service Company (APS) hereby submits the Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) study report for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (PVNGS) and ISFSI.
The ETE study was completed as required by Section IV of Appendix E to 10 CFR Part 50. The guidance of NUREG CR-7002, Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, was used in developing the report. Appendix N of the APS ETE report provides a checklist corresponding to the evaluation criteria in Appendix B of NUREG CR-7002. Each of the NUREG CR-7002, Appendix B, criteria is addressed and cross-references provided to the sections of the report for each applicable criterion.
In accordance with 10 CFR 50.4(b), copies of this report are being forwarded to the NRC Region IV Administrator and the resident inspector. No commitments are being made to the NRC by this letter.
Should you have any questions or if additional information is needed regarding this Submittal, please contact Mr. Shaun M. Bernat, Emergency Preparedness Manager, at 623-393-2588.
Sincerely, Bernat, Shaun Digitally signed by Bernat, Shaun M(Z06433)
M(Z06433) Date: 2022.04.01 13:52:45 -07'00' Shaun M. Bernat Manager, Emergency Preparedness
Enclosure:
Palo Verde Nuclear Generation Station Evacuation Time Estimate Study S. A. Morris NRC Region IV Regional Administrator S. P. Lingam NRC NRR Project Manager for PVNGS L. N. Merker NRC Senior Resident Inspector for PVNGS A member of the STARS Alliance LLC Callaway
- Diablo Canyon
- Palo Verde
- Wolf Creek
Enclosure Palo Verde Nuclear Generation Station Evacuation Time Estimate Study
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation
DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimates
WorkperformedforArizonaPublicService,by:
KLDEngineering,P.C.
1601VeteransMemorialHighway,Suite340
Islandia,NY11749
Email:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com
February24,2022 FinalReport,Rev.0 KLDTR-1226
TableofContents
1 INTRODUCTION............................................................................................................................... ...11
1.1 OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................11
1.2 ThePaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStationLocation...............................................................13
1.3 PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................13
1.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy..............................................................................................16
2 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................21
2.1 DataEstimateAssumptions.......................................................................................................21
2.2 MethodologicalAssumptions....................................................................................................22
2.3 AssumptionsonMobilizationTimes..........................................................................................23
2.4 TransitDependentAssumptions................................................................................................24
2.5 TrafficandAccessControlAssumptions....................................................................................25
2.6 ScenariosandRegions...............................................................................................................26
3 DEMANDESTIMATION....................................................................................................................... 31
3.1 PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................31
3.2 ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................32
3.3 TransientPopulation..................................................................................................................33
3.4 Employees............................................................................................................................... ...33
3.5 TransitDependentPopulation...................................................................................................34
3.6 SchoolPopulationDemand........................................................................................................36
3.7 SpecialEvent.............................................................................................................................. 37
3.8 Accessand/orFunctionalNeedsPopulation.............................................................................37
3.9 ExternalTraffic........................................................................................................................... 37
3.10 BackgroundTraffic.....................................................................................................................38
3.11 SummaryofDemand.................................................................................................................38
4 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................41
4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................42
4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................44
4.3 ApplicationtothePVNGSStudyArea........................................................................................46
4.3.1 TwoLaneRoads............................................................................................................................. 46
4.3.2 MultilaneHighway......................................................................................................................... 46
4.3.3 Freeways............................................................................................................................... .........47
4.3.4 Intersections............................................................................................................................... ...48
4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................48
4.5 BoundaryConditions..................................................................................................................49
5 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................51
5.1 Background............................................................................................................................... .51
5.2 FundamentalConsiderations.....................................................................................................52
5.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................54
5.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution......................................................................55
5.4.1 StatisticalOutliers.......................................................................................................................... 55
5.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGeneration...............................................................................................57
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5.4.3 TripGenerationforRecreationalAreas.........................................................................................59
6 EVACUATIONCASES........................................................................................................................... 61
7 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................71
7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................71
7.2 StagedEvacuation...................................................................................................................... 72
7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................72
7.4 EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................ 74
7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimateResults.............................................................................................74
7.6 StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................76
7.7 GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................76
8 TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................81
8.1 ETEsforTransitDependentPeople...........................................................................................82
8.2 ETEsforAccessand/orFunctionalNeedsPopulation...............................................................88
9 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY..................................................................................................91
9.1 Assumptions............................................................................................................................... 92
9.2 AdditionalConsiderations..........................................................................................................92
10 EVACUATIONROUTESANDRECEPTIONCENTERS...........................................................................101
10.1 EvacuationRoutes....................................................................................................................101
10.2 ReceptionandCareCenters....................................................................................................102
A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A1
APPENDIXB............................................................................................................................... .................B0
B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B1
B.1 OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModel....................................................B1
B.2 InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRAD..............................................................B2
B.2.1 DTRADDescription......................................................................................................................... B2
B.2.2 NetworkEquilibrium...................................................................................................................... B4
C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C1
C.1 Methodology.............................................................................................................................. C2
C.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagram.............................................................................................................C2
C.1.2 TheSimulationModel....................................................................................................................C2
C.1.3 LaneAssignment............................................................................................................................ C6
C.2 Implementation......................................................................................................................... C6
C.2.1 ComputationalProcedure..............................................................................................................C6
C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD).................................................................C7
D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D1
E. FACILITYDATA............................................................................................................................... .....E1
F. DEMOGRAPHICSURVEY.....................................................................................................................F1
F.1 Introduction............................................................................................................................... F1
F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F1
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F.3 SurveyResults............................................................................................................................ F2
F.3.1HouseholdDemographicResults.......................................................................................................F2
F.3.2EvacuationResponse......................................................................................................................... F3
F.3.3TimeDistributionResults...................................................................................................................F4
G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G1
G.1 Roadblocks............................................................................................................................... .G1
G.2 AnalysisofKeyRoadblockLocations........................................................................................G1
H EVACUATIONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H1
J. REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J1
K. EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K1
L. SECTORBOUNDARIES........................................................................................................................ L1
M. EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.................................................................................................M1
M.1 EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M1
M.2 EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M1
M.3 EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M2
N. ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N1
Note:AppendixIintentionallyskipped
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ListofFigures
Figure11.PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStationLocation.................................................................111
Figure12.PVNGSLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork.....................................................................................112
Figure21.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................28
Figure31.SectorsComprisingthePVNGSEPZ......................................................................................316
Figure32.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector...........................................................................317
Figure33.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector...............................................................................318
Figure34.ShadowPopulationbySector...............................................................................................319
Figure35.ShadowVehiclesbySector...................................................................................................320
Figure36.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................321
Figure37.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................322
Figure38.EmployeePopulationbySector.............................................................................................323
Figure39.EmployeeVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................324
Figure41.FundamentalDiagrams..........................................................................................................410
Figure51.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip............................................................515
Figure52.TimeDistributionsforEvacuationMobilizationActivities....................................................516
Figure53.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution.......................................................517
Figure54.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................518
Figure55.ComparisonofStagedandUnStagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion
............................................................................................................................... ..................................519
Figure61.PVNGSEPZSectors..................................................................................................................68
Figure71.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................721
Figure72.PaloVerdeShadowRegion...................................................................................................722
Figure73.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate....................................723
Figure74.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate............................................724
Figure75.CongestionPatternsat1Hourand45MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..................725
Figure76.CongestionPatternsat2Hoursand15MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate................726
Figure77.CongestionPatternsat2Hoursand55MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate................727
Figure78.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03......................................................728
Figure79.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03......................................................728
Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03....................................................729
Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03....................................................729
Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03....................................................730
Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR03....................................................730
Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03....................................................731
Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03....................................................731
Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03....................................................732
Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03..................................................732
Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03..................................................733
Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03..................................................733
Figure81.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................814
Figure101.EvacuationRoute................................................................................................................104
Figure102.TransitDependentBusRoutes...........................................................................................105
Figure103.ReceptionandCareCenters................................................................................................106
FigureB1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterface........................................................................B5
FigureC1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork.........................................................................................C12
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FigureC2.FundamentalDiagrams.........................................................................................................C13
FigureC3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht1>0............................................................................C13
FigureC4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC3)....................................................C14
FigureD1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D5
FigureE1.Schools,LodgingFacilitiesandMajorEmployerswithintheStudyArea...............................E4
FigureF1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F5
FigureF2.VehicleAvailability..................................................................................................................F6
FigureF3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F6
FigureF4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds....................................................................F7
FigureF5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference.........................................................................................F7
FigureF6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F8
FigureF7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F8
FigureF8.CommutersImpactedbyCOVID19........................................................................................F9
FigureF9.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation...............................................................................F9
FigureF10.PercentofHouseholdsthatAwaitReturningCommuterBeforeLeaving..........................F10
FigureF11.ShelterinPlaceCharacteristics..........................................................................................F10
FigureF12.ShelterthenEvacuateCharacteristics................................................................................F11
FigureF13.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/College.............................................................F11
FigureF14.Work/CollegetoHomeTravelTime....................................................................................F12
FigureF15.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F12
FigureG1.RoadblocksforthePVNGSSite.............................................................................................G4
FigureH1.RegionR01............................................................................................................................. H4
FigureH2.RegionR02............................................................................................................................. H5
FigureH3.RegionR03............................................................................................................................. H6
FigureH4.RegionR04............................................................................................................................. H7
FigureH5.RegionR05............................................................................................................................. H8
FigureH6.RegionR06............................................................................................................................. H9
FigureH7.RegionR07........................................................................................................................... H10
FigureH8.RegionR08........................................................................................................................... H11
FigureH9.RegionR09........................................................................................................................... H12
FigureH10.RegionR10......................................................................................................................... H13
FigureH11.RegionR11......................................................................................................................... H14
FigureH12.RegionR12......................................................................................................................... H15
FigureH13.RegionR13......................................................................................................................... H16
FigureH14.RegionR14......................................................................................................................... H17
FigureH15.RegionR15......................................................................................................................... H18
FigureH16.RegionR16......................................................................................................................... H19
FigureH17.RegionR17......................................................................................................................... H20
FigureH18.RegionR18......................................................................................................................... H21
FigureH19.RegionR19......................................................................................................................... H22
FigureH20.RegionR20......................................................................................................................... H23
FigureH21.RegionR21......................................................................................................................... H24
FigureH22.RegionR22......................................................................................................................... H25
FigureH23.RegionR23......................................................................................................................... H26
FigureH24.RegionR24......................................................................................................................... H27
FigureH25.RegionR25......................................................................................................................... H28
FigureH26.RegionR26......................................................................................................................... H29
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FigureH27.RegionR27......................................................................................................................... H30
FigureH28.RegionR28......................................................................................................................... H31
FigureH29.RegionR29......................................................................................................................... H32
FigureH30.RegionR30......................................................................................................................... H33
FigureH31.RegionR31......................................................................................................................... H34
FigureH32.RegionR32......................................................................................................................... H35
FigureH33.RegionR33......................................................................................................................... H36
FigureH34.RegionR34......................................................................................................................... H37
FigureH35.RegionR35......................................................................................................................... H38
FigureH36.RegionR36......................................................................................................................... H39
FigureH37.RegionR37......................................................................................................................... H40
FigureH38.RegionR38......................................................................................................................... H41
FigureH39.RegionR39......................................................................................................................... H42
FigureH40.RegionR40......................................................................................................................... H43
FigureH41.RegionR41......................................................................................................................... H44
FigureH42.RegionR42......................................................................................................................... H45
FigureH43.RegionR43......................................................................................................................... H46
FigureH44.RegionR44......................................................................................................................... H47
FigureH45.RegionR45......................................................................................................................... H48
FigureH46.RegionR46......................................................................................................................... H49
FigureH47.RegionR47......................................................................................................................... H50
FigureH48.RegionR48......................................................................................................................... H51
FigureH49.RegionR49......................................................................................................................... H52
FigureH50.RegionR50......................................................................................................................... H53
FigureH51.RegionR51......................................................................................................................... H54
FigureH52.RegionR52......................................................................................................................... H55
FigureJ1.NetworkSources/Origins..........................................................................................................J4
FigureJ2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J5
FigureJ3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)..............................J5
FigureJ4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)..............J6
FigureJ5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)...............................J6
FigureJ6.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)
............................................................................................................................... ....................................J7
FigureJ7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)................J7
FigureJ8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7).................................J8
FigureJ9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario8)................J8
FigureJ10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9)...............................J9
FigureJ11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario
10)............................................................................................................................... ...............................J9
FigureJ12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario
11)............................................................................................................................... .............................J10
FigureJ13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact
(Scenario12)............................................................................................................................... .............J10
FigureK1.PVNGSLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork.......................................................................................K2
FigureK2.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1.....................................................................................K3
FigureK3.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2.....................................................................................K4
FigureK4.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3.....................................................................................K5
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FigureK5.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4.....................................................................................K6
FigureK6.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5.....................................................................................K7
FigureK7.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6.....................................................................................K8
FigureK8.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7.....................................................................................K9
FigureK9.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8...................................................................................K10
FigureK10.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9.................................................................................K11
FigureK11.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10...............................................................................K12
FigureK12.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11...............................................................................K13
FigureK13.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12...............................................................................K14
FigureK14.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13...............................................................................K15
FigureK15.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14...............................................................................K16
FigureK16.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15...............................................................................K17
FigureK17.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16...............................................................................K18
FigureK18.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17...............................................................................K19
FigureK19.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18...............................................................................K20
FigureK20.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19...............................................................................K21
FigureK21.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20...............................................................................K22
FigureK22.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21...............................................................................K23
FigureK23.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22...............................................................................K24
FigureK24.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23...............................................................................K25
FigureK25.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24...............................................................................K26
FigureK26.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25...............................................................................K27
FigureK27.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26...............................................................................K28
FigureK28.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27...............................................................................K29
FigureK29.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28...............................................................................K30
FigureK30.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29...............................................................................K31
FigureK31.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30...............................................................................K32
FigureL1.PVNGSSectors......................................................................................................................... L2
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ListofTables
Table11.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................17
Table12.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................17
Table13.ETEStudyComparisons............................................................................................................18
Table21.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................27
Table22.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................27
Table31.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................39
Table32.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbySector.......................................................310
Table33.ShadowPopulationGrowthRate...........................................................................................310
Table34.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector...........................................................................311
Table35.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................311
Table36.SummaryofEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesCommutingintotheEPZ............................312
Table37.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates...............................................................................312
Table38.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates....................................................................................313
Table39.Accessand/orFunctionalNeedsDemandSummary..............................................................313
Table310.PVNGSEPZExternalTraffic...................................................................................................313
Table311.SummaryofPopulationDemand.........................................................................................314
Table312.SummaryofVehicleDemand................................................................................................315
Table51.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities..............................................................................510
Table52.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic.............................................................................510
Table53.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork.................................................511
Table54.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome................................................................511
Table55.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoLeaveHome................................................512
Table56.MappingDistributionstoEvents............................................................................................512
Table57.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................512
Table58.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnStagedEvacuation....................513
Table59.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.........................514
Table61.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions...........................................................................................63
Table62.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................65
Table63.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................66
Table64.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario..................................................................................................67
Table71.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation...........................79
Table72.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.......................712
Table73.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2MileRegionwithintheIndicatedRegion........................715
Table74.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2MileRegionwithintheIndicatedRegion......................717
Table75.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................719
Table81.SummaryofTransportationResource....................................................................................810
Table82.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather...............................................................811
Table83.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain...............................................................................811
Table84.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather...........................................812
Table85.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain............................................................812
Table86.Accessand/orFunctionalNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates..............................813
Table87.Accessand/orFunctionalNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates-SecondWavefor
BusesandParatransitVehicles................................................................................................................813
Table101.SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutes.........................................................................103
Table102.BusRouteDescriptions.........................................................................................................103
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Table103.SchoolReceptionandCareCenters......................................................................................103
TableA1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A1
TableC1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C8
TableC2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C9
TableC3.Glossary............................................................................................................................... ...C10
TableE1.SchoolswithintheStudyArea.................................................................................................E2
TableE2.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E2
TableE3.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E3
TableF1.PVNGSDemographicSurveySamplingPlan.............................................................................F5
TableG1.ListofKeyRoadblockLocations...............................................................................................G3
TableH1.PercentofSectorPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion.....................................................H2
TableJ1.SampleSimulationModelInput................................................................................................J2
TableJ2.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)............................J2
TableJ3.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,
Scenario1)............................................................................................................................... ..................J3
TableJ4.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1..........................J3
TableK1.SummaryofNodesbytheTypeofControl...............................................................................K1
TableM1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M4
TableM2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M4
TableM3.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforVariationwithPopulationChange......................................M4
TableN1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N1
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ACRONYMLIST
Table1.AcronymList
ACRONYM DEFINITION
AADT AverageAnnualDailyTraffic
ACP AccessControlPoint
ADEMA ArizonaDepartmentofEmergency&MilitaryAffairs
ANS AlertandNotificationSystem
APS ArizonaPublicService
ASLB AtomicSafetyandLicensingBoard
ATE AdvisorytoEvacuate
ATIS AutomatedTravelerInformationSystems
AZDOT ArizonaDepartmentofTransportation
BFFS BaseFreeFlowSpeed
CR CountyRoad
COVID19 CoronavirusDisease2019
D Destination
DDHV DirectionalDesignHourlyVolume
DHV DesignHourVolume
DMS DynamicMessageSign
DTA DynamicTrafficAssignment
DTRAD DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution
DYNEV DynamicNetworkEvacuation
EAS EmergencyAlertSystem
EOC EmergencyOperationsCenter
EPZ EmergencyPlanningZone
EPFAQ EmergencyPlanningFrequentlyAskedQuestion
ETE EvacuationTimeEstimate
EVAN EvacuationAnimator
EMA EmergencyManagementAgency
FEMA FederalEmergencyManagementAgency
FFS FreeFlowSpeed
FHWA FederalHighwayAdministration
GIS GeographicInformationSystem
HAR HighwayAdvisoryRadio
HCM HighwayCapacityManual
HH Household
HPMS HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem
I Interstate
ITS IntelligentTransportationSystems
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ACRONYM DEFINITION
LOS LevelofService
MCDEM MaricopaCountyDepartmentEmergency
MOE MeasuresofEffectiveness
mi miles
min minutes
mph MilesPerHour
MUTCD ManualofUniformTrafficControlDevices
MTC ManualTrafficControl
NB Northbound
NOAA TheNationalOceanicandAtmosphericAdministration
NRC UnitedStatesNuclearRegulatoryCommission
O Origin
OD OriginDestination
ORO OffsiteResponseOrganization
PAR ProtectiveActionRecommendation
pce PassengerCarEquivalent
pcphpl passengercarperhourperlane
PSL PathSizeLogit
PVNGS PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation
QDF QueueDischargeFlow
RCC ReceptionandCareCenter
RS RelocationSchool
SH StateHighway
SR StateRoute
SV ServiceVolume
TA TrafficAssignment
TCP TrafficControlPoint
TD TripDistribution
TI TimeInterval
TMP TrafficManagementPlan
UNITES UnifiedTransportationEngineeringSystem
USDOT UnitedStatesDepartmentofTransportation
vph VehiclesPerHour
vpm VehiclesPerMinute
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation AL2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
EXECUTIVE
SUMMARY
Thisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelop
EvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)forthePaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation(PVNGS)located
inMaricopaCounty,Arizona.ETEarepartoftherequiredplanningbasisandprovideArizona
Public Service Company (APS) and state and local governments with sitespecific information
neededforProtectiveActiondecisionmaking.
In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by Federal
Governmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:
x Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Appendix E to Part 50 (10CFR50), Emergency
PlanningandPreparednessforProductionandUtilizationFacilities,NRC,2011.
x Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities,
10CFR50,AppendixE.
x Revision 1 of the Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies,
NUREG/CR7002,February2021.
x FEMA Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual (FEMA P1028),
December2019
x DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR6863,
January2005.
ProjectActivities
This project began in October 2020 and extended over a period of 15 months. The major
activitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence:
x ConductedavirtualkickoffmeetingwithAPSpersonnelandemergencymanagement
personnelrepresentingstateandcountygovernments.
x AccessedtheU.S.CensusBureaudatafilesfortheyear2020projectedto2021aswell
asthe2021populationdatacollectedbyMaricopaCounty.
x ObtainedtheestimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetowork
withintheEPZfromAPS.
x Studied Geographic Information Systems (GIS) maps of the area in the vicinity of the
PVNGS,thenconductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaynetworktoobserveany
roadwaychangesrelativetothepreviousETEstudydonein2011.
x Updatedtheanalysisnetworkrepresentingthehighwaysystemtopologyandcapacities
within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ), plus a Shadow Region covering the region
betweentheEPZboundaryand15milesradiallyfromtheplant.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
x ConductedarandomsampleonlinedemographicsurveyofresidentswithintheEPZto
gather focused data needed for this ETE study that were not contained within the
censusdatabase.Thesurveyinstrumentwasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeand
offsiteresponseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey.
x A data needs matrix was provided to APS and the offsite agencies at the kickoff
meeting. Available data was provided for major employers, transients, and schools in
MaricopaCountybyAPSandMaricopaCountyDepartmentofEmergencyManagement
(MCDEM).
x The traffic demand and tripgeneration rates of evacuating vehicles were estimated
fromthegathereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilization
time(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computed
usingtheresultsofthedemographicsurveyoftheEPZresidents.
x Following federal guidelines, the existing 145 Sectors within the EPZ were grouped
withincircularareasorkeyholeconfigurations(circlesplusradialsectors)thatdefinea
totalof52EvacuationRegions(numberedR01throughR52).
x ThetimevaryingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,each
described in terms of the following factors: (1) Season (Summer, Winter); (2) Day of
Week(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,
Rain).OnespecialeventscenarioinvolvinganOutageatthePlantwasconsidered.One
roadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasinglelanewasclosedonInterstate
(I)10eastbound(fromSWintersburgRd(Exit98)totheinterchangewithStateHighway
85(Exit112))forthedurationoftheevacuation.
x Staged evacuation was considered for those Regions wherein the 2Mile Region and
Sectorsdownwindto5milesareevacuated.
x AsperNUREG/CR7002,Rev1,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis:
A rapidly escalating accident at the plant that quickly assumes the status of a
general emergency wherein evacuation is ordered promptly and no early
protective actions have been implemented such that the Advisory to Evacuate
(ATE)isvirtuallycoincidentwiththesirenalert.
Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measured
astheelapsedtimefromtheATEuntilthestatedpercentageofthepopulation
exits the impacted Region, that represent upper bound estimates. This
conservativePlanningBasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents.
x If the emergency occurs while schools are in session, the ETE study assumes that the
children will be evacuated by bus directly to the reception and care centers located
outside the EPZ. Parents, relatives, and neighbors are advised to not pick up their
childrenatschoolpriortothearrivalofthebusesdispatchedforthatpurpose.TheETE
forschoolchildrenarecalculatedseparately.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
x Evacuees who do not have access to a private vehicle will either rideshare with
relatives, friends or neighbors, or be evacuated by buses provided as specified in the
county evacuation plan. Separate ETE are calculated for the transitdependent
evacuees,andforaccessand/orfunctionalneedspopulation.
ComputationofETE
Atotalof624ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifies
the aggregate evacuation time estimated for the population within one of the 52 Evacuation
Regions to evacuate from that Region, under the circumstances defined for one of the 12
Evacuation Scenarios (52 x 12 = 624). Separate ETE are calculated for transitdependent
evacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.
ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeople
within the EPZ would be advised to evacuate. That is, the ATE applies only to those people
occupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthepeoplewithin
theimpactedregionwillevacuateinresponsetotheATE.Thepeopleoccupyingtheremainder
oftheEPZoutsidetheimpactedregionmaybeadvisedtotakeshelter.
The computation of ETE assumes that 20% of the population within the EPZ but outside the
impactedregion,willelecttovoluntarilyevacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationinthe
ShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewho
are evacuating from within the impacted region. The impedance that could be caused by
voluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfortheimpactedregion.
Staged evacuation is considered wherein those people within the 2Mile Region evacuate
immediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelterinplace.Once90%ofthe
2Mile Region is evacuated, those people beyond 2 miles begin to evacuate. As per federal
guidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillevacuate(noncompliance)eventhoughtheyare
advisedtoshelterinplaceduringastagedevacuation.
Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows:
x A linknode representation of the highway network is coded. Each link represents a
unidirectionallengthofhighway;eachnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormerge
point.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsand
onestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures.
x Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalledzonalcentroidslocatedwithin
the EPZ and Shadow Region. The trip generation rates vary over time reflecting the
mobilization process, and from one location (centroid) to another depending on
populationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea.
x The evacuation model computes the routing patterns for evacuating vehicles that are
compliantwithfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),and
thensimulatethetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocess
estimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES3 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90%and100%,respectively,ofthepopulation
withintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.Thesestatisticsare
presentedintabularandgraphicalformats.The90thpercentileETEhavebeenidentifiedasthe
values that should be considered when making protective action decisions because the 100th
percentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelongertomobilize.Thisis
referredtoastheevacuationtailinSection4.0ofNUREG/CR7002,Rev.1.
TrafficManagement
This study reviewed and analyzed the comprehensive existing traffic management plan
provided by Maricopa County. Due to the location of traffic congestion within the EPZ, the
implementationofRoadblocksdidnotimpactthe90thor100thpercentileETE.Thus,thisstudy
didnotmodeltheRoadblockswithintheEPZ,exceptforthoselocatedonI10astheyserveto
discouragetheexternalexternaltrafficfromenteringI10.RefertoSection9andAppendixG.
SelectedResults
A compilation of selected information is presented on the following pages in the form of
FiguresandTablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow.
x Table31presentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpopulationineachSectorbased
on2021populationdataprovidedbyMCDEM.
x Table61defineseachofthe52EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroups
ofSectors.
x Table62definestheEvacuationScenarios.
x Tables71and72arecompilationsofETE.Thesedataarethetimesneededtoclearthe
indicated regions of 90 and 100 percent of the population occupying these regions,
respectively. These computed ETE include consideration of mobilization time and of
estimated voluntary evacuations from other regions within the EPZ and from the
ShadowRegion.
x Tables 73 and 74 present ETE for the 2Mile Region, when evacuating additional
Sectors downwind to 5 miles for unstaged and staged evacuations for the 90th and
100thpercentiles,respectively.
x Table82presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather.
x Table84presentsETEforthetransitdependentpopulationingoodweather.
x Figure61displaysamapofthePVNGSEPZshowingthelayoutofthe145Sectorsthat
comprise,inaggregate,theEPZ.
x FigureH8presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR08)tobeevacuated
under the circumstances defined in Table 61. Maps of all Regions are provided in
AppendixH.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES4 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Conclusions
x General population ETE were computed for 624 unique cases - a combination of 52
uniqueEvacuationRegionsand12uniqueEvacuationScenarios.Table71andTable72
document these ETE for the 90th and 100th percentiles. The 90th percentile ETE range
from2:05(hr:min)to3:10.The100thpercentileETErangefrom5:45to5:55.
x ThecomparisonofTable71andTable72indicatesthattheETEforthe100thpercentile
are significantly longer than those for the 90th percentile. This is the result of the
congestion within PVNGS and those accessing I10 within the EPZ. When the system
becomes congested traffic exist the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some
evacuation routes have cleared. As more route clear, and the last of the permanent
residentsmobilize,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealready
left the EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service
the remaining demand. Congestion clears, however, before the completion of thetrip
generationtime.Asaresult,the100thpercentileETEisdictatedbythetimeneededto
mobilize.SeeSections7.3through7.5andSeeFigures73through719.
x Traffic congestion exists within PVNGS and those trying to access I10 on S 399th
AvenueandSSalomeHighway(eastoftheplant).AllcongestionwithintheEPZclears
by2hourand55minutesaftertheATE.SeeSection7.3andFigures73through77.
x Inspection of Table 73 and Table 74 indicates that a staged evacuation provides no
benefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2MileRegion(compareRegionsR02,R04through
R19withRegionsR36throughR52,respectively,inTables71and72).SeeSection7.6
foradditionaldiscussion.
x The comparison of Scenarios 6 (winter, midweek, midday) and 11 (winter, midweek,
midday)inTable71andTable72indicatesthatthespecialevent(outageatPVNGS)
has a significant impact on the 90th percentile ETE for the 2Mile Region (Region R01)
and keyhole regions with wind from the north, west and southwest. The additional
employee vehicles increase the 90th percentile ETE by up to 40 minutes and has no
impacttothe100thpercentileETE.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion.
x ComparisonofScenarios1and12inTable71indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-one
lane eastbound on I10 from the interchange with S Wintersburg Rd (Exit 98) to the
interchangewithStateHighway85(Exit112)hasnoimpactonthe90thpercentileETE
for all Regions except for Region R03. During an evacuation of the full EPZ, the 90th
percentileETEincreasesby25minutes.Thereisnoimpacttothe100thpercentileETE,
asthetripgeneration(plusthetraveltimetotheEPZboundary)dictatestheETE.See
Section7.5foradditionaldiscussion.
x SeparateETEwerecomputedforschools,transitdependentpersonsandaccessand/or
functional needs persons. The average singlewave ETE for schools is 2 hours and 5
minuteslessthanthegeneralpopulation90thpercentileETE;theaveragesinglewave
ETE for the transitdependent and access and/or functional needs people are longer
thanthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90thpercentileby50minutesand2hoursand30
minutes,respectively.SeeSection8.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES5 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
x Table81indicatesthattherearenotenoughbusesandparatransitvehiclesavailableto
evacuate the transitdependent and access and/or functional needs population within
theEPZinasinglewave.Asecondwaveisnecessaryforschools,transitdependentand
accessand/orfunctionalneedspopulation.SeeSection8.
x A reduction in the base trip generation time of 4 hours and 45 minute reduces the
generalpopulationETEatthe90thpercentileby30minutes.Anincreaseinmobilization
timeby1hourincreasethe90thpercentileETEby1hour.Thegeneralpopulation100th
percentileETEreducesby1hourandincreasesby1hourwhenthetripmobilizationis
reducedandincreased,respectively.SeeAppendixMandTableM1.
x ThegeneralpopulationETEisinsensitivetothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesinthe
ShadowRegion(Eliminatingtheshadowevacuation(0%)hasnoimpacttothe90thand
100th percentile ETEs. Tripling the shadow evacuation percentage (60%) increase the
90th percentile ETE by 5 minutes and has no impact to the 100th percentile ETE). See
AppendixMandTableM2.
x An increase in permanent resident population (EPZ plus Shadow Region) of 143% or
greaterresultsinanincreaseinthelongest90thpercentileETEof30minutes,forthefull
EPZ(RegionR03),whichmeetsthefederalcriterionforperformingafullyupdatedETE
studybetweendecennialCensuses.SeeAppendixMandTableM3.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES6 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table31.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation
Sector 2011Population1 2021Population2
1MileRing 41 24
3 1,714 1,951
A
B 1,566 1,398
C 1,493 1,324
D 2,939 1,490
E 1,120 893
F 923 585
G 475 420
H 157 68
J 30 0
K 7 6
L 60 35
M 94 99
N 21 4
P 0 0
Q 590 384
R 1,244 1,031
EPZTOTAL 12,474 9,712
EPZPopulationGrowth(2011-2021): 22.14%
1 Maricopa County Palo Verde Population Survey - Residents, December 2011 2
Maricopa County Palo Verde Population Survey - Residents, September 2021 3
Stage Stop RV Park is located in Sector A. The population at this facility is assumed to be included with the permanent resident population due to the large population reported within Sector A between 2 and 3 miles of the plant and presence of electrical hook-ups at the facility.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES7 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table61.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions
RadialRegions Sector 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region Description Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R01 2MileRegion X X R02 5MileRegion X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R03 FullEPZ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Evacuate2MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles Sector WindDirection 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region From: Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R04 S X X X X X R05 SSW X X X X X R06 SW X X X X X R07 WSW X X X X X R08 W X X X X X R09 WNW X X X X X R10 NW X X X X X R11 NNW X X X X X R12 N X X X X X R13 NNE X X X X X R14 NE X X X X X R15 ENE X X X X X R16 E X X X X X X X R17 ESE X X X X X X X R18 SE X X X X X X X R19 SSE X X X X X Sector(s)Evacuate Sector(s)ShelterinPlace
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES8 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Evacuate2MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundary Sector WindDirection 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region From: Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R20 S X X X X X X X X R21 SSW X X X X X X X X R22 SW X X X X X X X X R23 WSW X X X X X X X X R24 W X X X X X X X X R25 WNW X X X X X X X X R26 NW X X X X X X X X R27 NNW X X X X X X X X R28 N X X X X X X X X R29 NNE X X X X X X X X R30 NE X X X X X X X X R31 ENE X X X X X X X X R32 E X X X X X X X X X X X X R33 ESE X X X X X X X X X X X X R34 SE X X X X X X X X X X X X R35 SSE X X X X X X X X StagedEvacuation2MileRegionEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5Miles Sector WindDirection 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region From: Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R36 5MileRegion X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R37 S X X X X X R38 SSW X X X X X R39 SW X X X X X R40 WSW X X X X X R41 W X X X X X R42 WNW X X X X X R43 NW X X X X X R44 NNW X X X X X R45 N X X X X X R46 NNE X X X X X R47 NE X X X X X R48 ENE X X X X X R49 E X X X X X X X R50 ESE X X X X X X X R51 SE X X X X X X X R52 SSE X X X X X Sector(s)Evacuate Sector(s)ShelterinPlace Sector(s)ShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuate
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES9 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table62.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions
Scenarios Season4 DayofWeek TimeofDay Weather Special
1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None
2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None
3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None
4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None
Midweek,
5 Summer Evening Good None
Weekend
6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None
7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None
8 Winter Weekend Midday Good None
9 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None
Midweek,
10 Winter Evening Good None
Weekend
11 Winter Midweek Midday Good SpecialEvent:
OutageatPVNGS
RoadwayImpact:
12 Summer Midweek Midday Good LaneClosureon
I10Eastbound
4 Winter means that school is in session, at normal enrollment levels (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer means that school is in session at summer school enrollment levels (lower than normal enrollment).
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES10 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table71.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
Entire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZ
R01 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R02 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 3:00 2:45
R03 2:45 2:45 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:45 2:45 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:55 3:10
2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R04 2:35 2:35 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:35 2:35 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:55 2:35
R05 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:55 2:40
R06 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:20
R07 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:15
R08 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:15
R09 2:10 2:10 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:10
R10 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:40 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:40 2:35 2:45 2:10
R11 2:05 2:05 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:05
R12 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R13 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:05
R14 2:05 2:05 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:05
R15 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:05
R16 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:05
R17 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:40 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:40 2:35 2:45 2:10
R18 2:20 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:20
R19 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:25
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES11 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
2MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundary
R20 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:40 2:45 2:25
R21 2:30 2:30 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:30 2:30 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:30
R22 2:20 2:20 2:25 2:25 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:25 2:25 2:40 2:45 2:20
R23 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:50 2:30
R24 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:55 2:30
R25 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:55 2:25
R26 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:15
R27 2:05 2:05 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:05
R28 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:05
R29 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:05
R30 2:05 2:05 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:05
R31 2:05 2:05 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:05
R32 2:10 2:10 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:10
R33 2:05 2:05 1:50 1:50 2:30 2:10 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:30 2:35 2:05
R34 2:15 2:15 2:10 2:10 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:40 2:40 2:15
R35 2:20 2:25 2:20 2:20 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:40 2:40 2:20
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES12 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
StagedEvacuation-5MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R36 2:55 2:55 3:00 3:00 3:00 2:55 2:55 3:00 3:00 3:00 3:00 2:55
R37 2:50 2:50 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:50 2:50 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:50
R38 2:50 2:50 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:50 2:50 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:50
R39 2:45 2:45 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:45 2:45 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:50 2:45
R40 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:35 2:40 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:40
R41 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:30 2:35 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:35
R42 2:25 2:30 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:25
R43 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:25
R44 2:05 2:05 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:10 2:10 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:45 2:05
R45 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:05
R46 2:05 2:05 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:10 2:10 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:45 2:05
R47 2:05 2:05 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:05
R48 2:05 2:05 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:05
R49 2:05 2:05 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:05
R50 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:20
R51 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:40 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:45
R52 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:40 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:45
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES13 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table72.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
Entire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZ
R01 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R02 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R03 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R04 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R05 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R06 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R07 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R08 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R09 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R10 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R11 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R12 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R13 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R14 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R15 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R16 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R17 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R18 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R19 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES14 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
2MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundary
R20 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R21 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R22 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R23 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R24 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R25 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R26 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R27 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R28 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R29 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R30 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R31 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R32 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R33 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R34 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R35 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES15 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
StagedEvacuation-5MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R36 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R37 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R38 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R39 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R40 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R41 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R42 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R43 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R44 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R45 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R46 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R47 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R48 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R49 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R51 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R52 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES16 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table73.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2MileRegionwithintheIndicatedRegion
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
UnstagedEvacuation-2MileRegionand5MileRegion
R01 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R02 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R04 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R05 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R06 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R07 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R08 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R09 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R10 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R11 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R12 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R13 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R14 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R16 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R17 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R18 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R19 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES17 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
StagedEvacuation-5MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R36 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R37 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R38 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R39 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R40 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R41 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R42 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R43 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R44 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R45 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R46 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R47 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R48 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R49 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R50 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R51 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R52 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES18 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table74.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2MileRegionwithintheIndicatedRegion
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
UnstagedEvacuation-2MileRegionand5MileRegion
R01 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R02 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R04 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R05 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R06 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R07 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R08 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R09 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R10 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R11 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R12 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R13 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R14 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R15 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R16 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R17 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R18 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R19 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES19 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
StagedEvacuation-5MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R36 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R37 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R38 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R39 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R40 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R41 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R42 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R43 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R44 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R46 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R47 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R48 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R49 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R50 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R51 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R52 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES20 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table82.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeather
Travel TravelTime
Driver Loading Dist.To Average Timeto Dist.EPZ fromEPZ ETAto
Mobilization Time EPZBdry Speed EPZBdry ETE Bdryto BdrytoRCC RCC
School Time(min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) RCC(mi.) (min) (hr:min)
MARICOPACOUNTYSCHOOLS
CrossroadsAcademy 10 8 12.4 62.7 12 0:30 19.0 18 0:50
RuthFisherElementarySchool 10 15 13.2 61.2 13 0:40 19.0 18 1:00
TonopahValleyHighSchool 10 15 13.2 61.2 13 0:40 19.0 18 1:00
WintersWellElementarySchool 20 15 9.8 61.3 10 0:45 8.4 8 0:55
ArlingtonElementarySchool 10 15 8.4 50.9 10 0:35 8.4 8 0:45
PaloVerdeElementarySchool 10 15 0.0 0 0:25 10.8 10 0:35
MaximumforEPZ: 0:45 Maximum: 1:00
AverageforEPZ: 0:40 Average: 0:50
Table84.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeather
OneWave TwoWave
Route Travel Route
Number Route Travel Pickup Distance Timeto Driver Travel Pickup
Route of Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE toRCC RCC Unload Rest Time Time ETE
Number Buses (min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) (miles) (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min)
4 1 165 22.5 63.3 21 30 3:40 29.8 28 5 10 71 30 6:05
5 12 165 12.4 61.0 12 30 3:30 36.7 34 5 10 58 30 5:50
6 1 165 13.8 53.0 16 30 3:35 38.0 35 5 10 63 30 6:00
MaximumETE: 3:40 MaximumETE: 6:05
AverageETE: 3:35 AverageETE: 6:00
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES21 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure61.PVNGSEPZSectors
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES22 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH8.RegionR08
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation ES23 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
1 INTRODUCTION
Thisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelop
Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station (PVNGS),
locatedinMaricopaCounty,Arizona.ThisETEstudyprovidesArizonaPublicService(APS),state
and local governments with sitespecific information needed for Protective Action decision making.
In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by Federal
Governmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:
- Title10,CodeofFederalRegulations,AppendixEtoPart50(10CFR50),Emergency
PlanningandPreparednessforProductionandUtilizationFacilities,NRC,2011.
- Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities,
10CFR50,AppendixE.
- Revision 1 of the Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies,
NUREG/CR7002,February2021.
- FEMA Radiological Emergency Preparedness Program Manual (FEMA P1028),
December2019
- Development of Evacuation Time Estimates for Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG/CR 6863,January2005.
The work effort reported herein was supported and guided by local stakeholders who
contributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table11presentsa
summaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.
1.1 OverviewoftheETEProcess
Thefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:
- 1. InformationGathering:
- a. DefinedthescopeofworkindiscussionswithrepresentativesfromAPS.
- b. Attended meetings with emergency planners from Arizona Department of
Emergency & Military Affairs (ADEMA) and Maricopa County Department
Emergency (MCDEM) to discuss methodology, project assumptions and
resourcesavailable.
- c. Conducted a detailed field survey of the highway system and of area traffic
conditionswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)andShadowRegion.
- d. ObtaineddemographicEPZdatafromMCDEMandShadowRegiondatafromthe
2020Census,projectedtotheyear2021(seeSection3.1andSection3.2).
- e. ConductedarandomsampledemographicsurveyofEPZresidents.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 11 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
- f. Conducted a data collection effort to identify and describe schools, motels,
majoremployers,transportationproviders,andotherimportantinformation.
- 2. Estimated distributions of Trip Generation times representing the time required by
variouspopulationgroups(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare
(mobilize)fortheevacuationtrip.Theseestimatesareprimarilybasedupontherandom
sampledemographicsurvey.
- 3. Defined Evacuation Scenarios. These scenarios reflect the variation in demand, in trip
generationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdifferentseasons,day
ofweek,timeofdayandweatherconditions.
- 4. Reviewed the existing traffic management plan to be implemented by local and state
policeintheeventofanincidentattheplant.Trafficcontrolwasreviewedatspecified
TrafficControlPointsandAccessControlPoints(Roadblocks)locatedwithintheEPZand
roadblocksstoppingexternaltrafficwasonlyconsidered.
- 5. Used existing Sectors to define Evacuation Regions. The EPZ is partitioned into 145
sectorsbycompassdirectionandradialdistancefromtheplant.Regionsaregroupsof
contiguous Sectors for which ETE are calculated. The configurations of these Regions
reflect wind direction and the radial extent of the impacted area. Each Region, other
thanthosethatapproximatecircularareas,approximatesakeyholesectionwithinthe
EPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR7002,Rev.1.
- 6. Estimateddemandfortransitservicesforchildrenatschoolsandfortransitdependent
personsathome.
- 7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheDYNEVII.
- a. Estimated the evacuation traffic demand, based on the available information
derivedfromCensusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagencies,
APSandfromthedemographicsurvey.
- b. Updatedthelinknoderepresentationoftheevacuationnetwork,whichisused
asthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.
- c. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2016HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2)
to the data acquired during the field survey, to estimate the capacity of all
highwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.
- d. CalculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandforeachRegionandforeachScenario.
- e. Specified selected candidate destinations for each origin (location of each
source where evacuation trips are generated over the mobilization time) to
support evacuation travel consistent with outbound movement relative to the
locationofthePVNGS.
2 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM 2016), Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, 2016.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 12 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
- 8. Executed the DYNEV II system to determine optimal evacuation routing and compute
ETE for all residents, transients and employees (general population) with access to
private vehicles. Generated a complete set of ETE for all specified Regions and
Scenarios.
- 9. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR7002,Rev.1.
- 10. Calculated the ETE for all transit activities including those for schools, for the transit dependentpopulationandfortheaccessand/orfunctionalneedspopulation.
1.2 ThePaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStationLocation
ThePVNGSislocatedinTonopah,MaricopaCounty,Arizona.Thesiteisapproximately55miles
west of Phoenix, Arizona. The EPZ is entirely within Maricopa County. Figure 11 shows the
locationofthePVNGSrelativetoPhoenix.Thismapalsoidentifiesthecommunitiesinthearea
andthemajorroads.
1.3 PreliminaryActivities
Theseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.
FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetwork
In2020,KLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegion
whichconsistsoftheareabetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfrom
theplant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.Thesecharacteristics
areshowninTable12.
Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighway
infrastructure. No attempt was made to meticulously measure such attributes as lane width
and shoulder width; estimates of these measures based on visual observation and recorded
images were considered appropriate for the purpose of estimating the capacity of highway
sections. For example, Exhibit 157 in the HCM 2016 indicates that a reduction in lane width
from12feet(thebasevalue)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-nota
material difference - for twolane highways. Exhibit 1546 in the HCM 2016 shows little
sensitivityfortheestimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),with
respecttoFFS,fortwolanehighways.
The data from the audio and video recordings were used to create detailed geographic
information systems (GIS) shapefiles and databases of theroadway characteristics and of the
trafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhile
preparing the input stream for the DYNEV II. Roadway types were assigned based on the
followingcriteria:
x Freeway: limited access highway, 2 or more lanes in each direction, high free flow
speeds
x Freewayramp:rampontooroffofalimitedaccesshighway
x Majorarterial:3ormorelanesineachdirection
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 13 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
x Minorarterial:2ormorelanesineachdirection
x Collector:singlelaneineachdirection
x Localroadway:singlelaneineachdirection,localroadwithlowfreeflowspeeds
As documented on page 156 of the HCM 2016, the capacity of a twolane highway is 1,700
passenger cars per hour in one direction. For freeway sections, a value of 2,250 vehicles per
hourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit127oftheHCM2016.Theroadsurveyhasidentified
severalsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwolanehighwayswhich
are reflected in reduced values for both capacity and speed. These estimates are consistent
with the service volumes for LOS E presented in HCM 2016 Exhibit 1546. Link capacity is an
inputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputestheETE.Furtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovided
inSection4ofthisreport.
Trafficsignalsareeitherpretimed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewith
the traffic volume on competing approaches) or are actuated (signal timings vary over time
based on the changing traffic volumes on competing approaches). Actuated signals require
detectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.
Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthe
signal masts and pointed toward the intersection approaches. If detectors were observed on
theapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswere
notcollectedasthetimingsvarywithtrafficvolume.Roadblocks,ifmodeled,atlocationswhich
havecontroldevicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVII.
Ifnodetectorswereobserved,thesignalcontrolattheintersectionwasconsideredpretimed,
and detailed signal timings were gathered for several signal cycles. These signal timings were
inputtotheDYNEVIIusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR7002,Rev.1guidance.
Figure 12 presents the linknode analysis network that was constructed to model the
evacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thedirectionalarrowsonthelinks
andthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure12toclarifythefigure.Thedetailed
figuresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanalysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownand
nodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibrate
theanalysisnetwork.
The2012linknodeanalysisnetworkwasupdatedtoincludetheconstructedroundaboutand
parking lots along W Baseline Road within PVNGS. Aerial imagery and the road survey were
usedtoupdatethenetwork.
DemographicSurvey
Anonlinedemographicsurveywasperformedin2020togatherinformationneededfortheETE
study.AppendixFpresentsthesurveyinstrument,theproceduresusedandtabulationsofdata
compiledfromthesurveyreturnsalongwithdiscussionvalidatingtheuseofthesurveyresults
inthisstudy.
Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberof
evacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateelementsofthemobilizationprocess.
Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransitdependentresidents.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 14 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
ComputingtheEvacuationTimeEstimates
TheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfrom
severalsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedinto
vehicle demand data. The vehicle demand was loaded onto appropriate source links of the
analysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIwasthenusedtocomputeETEfor
allRegionsandScenarios.
AnalyticalTools
The DYNEV II that was employed for this study is comprised of several integrated computer
models. One of these is the DYNEV (DYnamic Network EVacuation) macroscopic simulation
model,anewversionoftheIDYNEVmodelthatwasdevelopedbyKLDundercontractwiththe
FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA).
DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursubmodels:
x Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC).
x ATripDistribution(TD),modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesfor
each origin (O) located within the analysis network, where evacuation trips are
generatedovertime.ThisestablishesasetofODtables.
x A Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA), model which assigns trips to paths of travel
(routes)whichsatisfytheODtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmodelsareintegrated
toformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedin
AppendixB.
x AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwhichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,
ifpossible.
Another software product developed by KLD, named UNITES (UNIfied Transportation
EngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutput
tables.
The dynamics of traffic flow over the network are graphically animated using the software
product, EVAN (EVacuation ANimator), developed by KLD. EVAN is GIS based, and displays
statisticssuchasLOS,vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,
outputbytheDYNEVII.TheuseofaGISframeworkenablestheusertozoominonareasof
congestionandqueryroadname,townnameandothergeographicalinformation.
TheprocedureforapplyingtheDYNEVIIwithintheframeworkofdevelopingETEisoutlinedin
AppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.
For the reader interested in an evaluation of the original model, IDYNEV, the following
referencesaresuggested:
x NUREG/CR4873 - Benchmark Study of the IDYNEV Evacuation Time Estimate
ComputerCode
x NUREG/CR4874 - The Sensitivity of Evacuation Time Estimates to Changes in Input
ParametersfortheIDYNEVComputerCode
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 15 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Theevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto:
x Route traffic along paths of travel that will expedite their travel from their respective
pointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ.
x Restrict movement toward the plant to the extent practicable and disperse traffic
demandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways.
x Move traffic in directions that are generally outbound, relative to the location of the
plant.
DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.This
description enables the analyst to identify bottlenecks and to develop countermeasures that
are designed to represent the behavioral responses of evacuees. The effects of these
countermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel.
1.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy
Table13presentsacomparisonofthepresentETEstudywiththe2012ETEstudy(KLDTR513,
dated December 2012, Rev. 1). The 90th percentile ETE for the full EPZ (Region R03) in this
study,increasesbyasmuchas40minutes(1hourforroadwayimpact)forsummer,midweek,
middayscenariowhencomparedwiththe2012study.The100thpercentileETEforthefullEPZ
increasesbyasmuchas45minutes.Themajorfactorscontributingtothedifferencesbetween
theETEvaluesobtainedinthisstudyandthoseofthepreviousstudyare:
x The permanent resident population in the EPZ decreased by 9.2%, resulting in less
evacuatingvehicles,whichcanreduceETE.
x The permanent resident population in the Shadow Region was projected to 2021 and
grew by 44%. This population increase results in more vehicles evacuating in the
ShadowRegion,whichreducestheavailableroadwaycapacityforEPZevacueesandcan
increaseETE.
x ThenumberofemployeescommutingintotheEPZincreasedby49.8%,whichresultsin
anincreaseinvehiculardemandthatcandecreasethe90thpercentileETE,asitwilltake
quickertoreachanevacuationof90%ofthepopulation.
x Thecompletionofaroundabout,parkinglots,andasecondentrance/exitatPVNGSwas
includedinthisstudy.Theroundaboutdecreasestheroadwaycapacityandspeedwhile
PVNGS employees evacuate, increasing the congestion within the 2Mile Region and
prolongingthe90thpercentileETE.
x Externaltrafficonmajorroadway,I10,increasesthenumberofvehiclestraversingthe
EPZ by approximately 34.2%. The increase in external traffic on I10 reduces the
available capacity to evacuees and increases delays at ramps as evacuees try to gain
access to I10. Ultimately, this increase in traffic, increases congestion within the EPZ
andprolongsETE.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 16 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
x Trip generation times increased by at most 45 minutes for permanent residents and
reducedbyatmost15minutesforemployees/transientsbasedondatacollectedfrom
thedemographicsurvey.Asaresult,vehiclesaregeneratedoveralongerperiodoftime
whichcanreduceoverallcongestionbutisdirectlycorrelatedwiththeincreaseofthe
100th percentile ETE for this site. Since all congestion clears prior to the end of trip
generation time, the 100th percentile ETE is dictated by the time needed to mobilize
(plusa10minutetraveltimetotheEPZboundary).
The various factors, discussed above, that can increase ETE outweigh those that can reduce
ETE,therebyexplainingwhythe90thand100thpercentileETEhavesignificantlyincreasedinthis
studyrelativetothe2012ETEstudy.
Table11.StakeholderInteraction
Stakeholder NatureofStakeholderInteraction
ArizonaPublicService(APS) Attendedmeetingstodefinemethodologyanddata
requirements.Setupcontactswithlocalgovernment
agencies.ProvidedrecentPVNGSemployeedata.
Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumptions.
EngagedintheETEdevelopmentandwereinformed
ofthestudyresults.
MaricopaCountyDepartmentof Mettodiscussprojectmethodology,keyproject
EmergencyManagement(MCDEM) assumptionsandtodefinedataneeds.Provided
countyemergencyplans,specialfacilitydataand
existingtrafficmanagementplans.Reviewedand
approvedallprojectassumptions.EngagedintheETE
developmentandwereinformedofthestudyresults..
ArizonaDepartmentofEmergency& Obtainstateemergencyplan.
MilitaryAffairs(DEMA)
Table12.HighwayCharacteristics
x Numberoflanes x Postedspeed
x Lanewidth x Actualfreespeed
x Shouldertype&width x Abuttinglanduse
x Interchangegeometries x Controldevices
x Lanechannelization&queuing x Intersectionconfiguration(including
capacity(includingturnbays/lanes) roundaboutswhereapplicable)
x Geometrics:curves,grades(>4%) x Trafficsignaltype
x Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarningsigns,
inadequatedelineations,tollbooths,etc.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 17 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table13.ETEStudyComparisons
Topic PreviousETEStudy CurrentETEStudy
UseddatasuppliedbyMaricopa UseddatasuppliedbyMaricopa
Resident County; County;
PopulationBasis Population=12,474 Population=9,712
Vehicles=6,289 Vehicles=5,712
Resident 2.90persons/household,1.46 2.65persons/household,1.56
Population evacuatingvehicles/household evacuatingvehicles/household
Vehicle yielding:1.99persons/vehicle. yielding:1.70persons/vehicle.
Occupancy
Employeeestimatesbasedon Employeeestimatesbasedon
informationprovidedaboutmajor informationprovidedaboutmajor
employersinEPZ.1.08employeesper employersinEPZ.1.18employeesper
Employee vehiclebasedontelephonesurvey vehiclebasedondemographicsurvey
Population results. results.
Employees=2,715 Employees=3,035
Vehicles=1,607 Vehicles=2,408
Estimatesbasedupondataprovidedby
EstimatesbaseduponU.S.Censusdata
MCDEMandtheresultsofthe
andtheresultsofthetelephone
demographicsurvey.Atotalof59
survey.Atotalof455peoplewhodo
peoplewhodonothaveaccesstoa
Transit nothaveaccesstoavehicle,requiring
vehicle,4buseswereusedbut2buses
Dependent 16busestoevacuate.Anadditional
wererequiredtoevacuate.An
Population 627accessand/orfunctionalneeds
additional354accessand/orfunctional
personsneedingspecialtransportation
needspersonsneedspecial
toevacuate(525requireabus,102
transportationtoevacuate(284require
requireaparatransitvehicle).
abus,70requireaparatransitvehicle).
Transientestimatesbasedupon Transientestimatesbasedupon
informationprovidedabouttransient informationprovidedabouttransient
Transient attractionsinEPZ.
attractionsinEPZ.
Population
Transients=1,061 Transients=23
TransientVehicles=708 TransientVehicles=8
Therearecurrentlynospecialfacilities Therearecurrentlynospecialfacilities
SpecialFacilities otherthanschools(seebelow)located otherthanschools(seebelow)located
Population withinthe10mileEPZ. withinthe10mileEPZ.
Schoolpopulationbasedon Schoolpopulationbasedon
informationprovidedbyMCDEM informationprovidedbyMCDEM
SchoolPopulation withintheEPZandShadowRegion. withintheEPZandShadowRegion.
Schoolenrollment=1,410 Schoolenrollment=2,746
Buses=25 Buses=51
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 18 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Topic PreviousETEStudy CurrentETEStudy
ArcGISsoftwareusing2010USCensus ArcGISsoftwareusing2020USCensus
blocksandprojectingoutto2011using blocksandprojectingoutto2021using
thecompoundgrowthrateof2000 thecompoundgrowthrateof2010
Shadow Censusand2010censusdata;area Censusand2020censusdata;area
Population ratiomethodused. ratiomethodused.
Population=9,546 Population=11,911
Vehicles=4,841 Vehicles=6,973
Voluntary
evacuationfrom
20% of the population within the EPZ, 20% of the population within the EPZ,
withinEPZin
but not within the Evacuation Region but not within the Evacuation Region
areasoutside
(seeFigure21) (seeFigure21)
regiontobe
evacuated
20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZ 20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZ
Shadow withintheShadowRegion withintheShadowRegion
Evacuation (seeFigure72) (seeFigure72)
NetworkSize 272links;194nodes 402links;297nodes
FieldsurveysconductedinOctober
2020.Roadsandintersectionswere
FieldsurveysconductedinFebruary videoarchived.
Roadway 2012.Roadsandintersectionswere
videoarchived. Aerialimageryusedforadditional
GeometricData
roadwayswhichwerenotincludedin
Roadcapacitiesbasedon2010HCM. thefieldsurveys.
RoadcapacitiesbasedonHCM2016.
Directevacuationtodesignated Directevacuationtodesignated
SchoolEvacuation
ReceptionandCareCenter. ReceptionandCareCenter.
50percentoftransitdependent 72percentoftransitdependent
Ridesharing personswillevacuatewithaneighbor personswillevacuatewithaneighbor
orfriend. orfriend.
Basedonresidentialtelephonesurvey Basedonresidentialdemographic
ofspecificpretripmobilization surveyofspecificpretripmobilization
activities: activities:
Residentswithcommutersreturning Residentswithcommutersreturning
leavebetween30and300minutes. leavebetween30and345minutes.
TripGeneration Residentswithoutcommuters Residentswithoutcommuters
forEvacuation returningleavebetween15and240 returningleavebetween15and285
minutes. minutes.
Employeesandtransientsleave Employeesandtransientsleave
between15and120minutes. between15and105minutes.
AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisory AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisory
toEvacuate. toEvacuate.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 19 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Topic PreviousETEStudy CurrentETEStudy
NormalorRain.Thecapacityandfree NormalorRain.Thecapacityandfree
Weather flowspeedofalllinksinthenetwork flowspeedofalllinksinthenetwork
arereducedby10%intheeventofrain arereducedby10%intheeventofrain
Modeling DYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.8.0 DYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.20.0
OutageatPVNGS OutageatPVNGS
SpecialEvents SpecialEventPopulation=1,560 SpecialEventPopulation=1,304
additionalemployees additionalemployees
52Regions(centralsectorwind 52Regions(centralsectorwind
directionandeachadjacentsector directionandeachadjacentsector
EvacuationCases
techniqueused)and12Scenarios techniqueused)and12Scenarios
producing624uniquecases. producing624uniquecases.
EvacuationTime ETEreportedfor90thand100th ETEreportedfor90thand100th
Estimates percentilepopulation.Results percentilepopulation.Results
Reporting presentedbyRegionandScenario. presentedbyRegionandScenario.
Winter,Midweek,Midday, Winter,Midweek,Midday,
EvacuationTime GoodWeather:2:10 GoodWeather:2:45
Estimatesforthe Rain:2:10 Rain:2:45
entireEPZ,90th Summer,Weekend,Midday, Summer,Weekend,Midday,
percentile GoodWeather:2:10 GoodWeather:2:45
Rain:2:15 Rain:2:45
Winter,Midweek,Midday, Winter,Midweek,Midday,
EvacuationTime GoodWeather:5:10 GoodWeather:5:55
Estimatesforthe Rain:5:10 Rain:5:55
entireEPZ,100th Summer,Weekend,Midday, Summer,Weekend,Midday,
percentile GoodWeather:5:10 GoodWeather:5:55
Rain:5:10 Rain:5:55
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 110 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure11.PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStationLocation
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 111 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure12.PVNGSLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 112 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
2 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS
This section presents the estimates and assumptions utilized in the development of the
evacuationtimeestimates(ETEs).
2.1 DataEstimateAssumptions
- 1. Thepermanentresidentpopulationarebasedonthe2020U.S.Censuspopulationfrom
the Census Bureau website1 within the Shadow Region and the 2021 population data
providedbyMaricopaCountywithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ).(SeeSection
3.1.)
- 2. EstimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZ,
alongwiththepopulationestimatesattransientandspecialfacilitiesarebasedupondata
providedbyMaricopaCountyandArizonaPublicService(APS).(SeeSections3.3,3.4,and
3.7.)
- 3. The relationship between permanent resident population and evacuating vehicles is
basedonCensusdataandtheresultsofthedemographicsurvey(seeAppendixF).Values
of2.65personsperhousehold(FigureF1)and1.56evacuatingvehiclesperhousehold
(FigureF9)areusedforthepermanentresidentpopulation.
- 4. Employeevehicleoccupanciesarebasedontheresultsofthedemographicsurvey.For
thisstudy,1.18employeespervehicleisused.Inaddition,itisassumedtherearetwo
peoplepercarpool,onaverage.(SeeFigureF7.)
- 5. There are 210 inmates from Arizona State Prison working at Hickmans Farms. It is
assumedtheyarelocatedatthe32911WardRoad,Buckeyelocationandareincludedin
thenumberoftotalemployeesprovided.Theywillevacuateinbuses.
- 6. Onaverage,therelationshipbetweenpersonsandvehiclesfortransientsandthespecial
eventisasfollows:
- a. Transient Population at Saguaro Mineral Wells Motel (See Section 3.3 and
AppendixE):2.88peoplepervehicle(basedondataprovided)
- b. SpecialEvent(SeeSection3.7.):1.18peoplepervehicle(basedontheemployee
vehicleoccupancies)
- c. Wheredatawasnotprovided,theaveragehouseholdsizeisassumedtobethe
vehicleoccupancyratefortransientfacilitiesandthespecialevent.
- 7. ThemaximumbusspeedassumedwithintheEPZis65milesperhour(mph)basedon
ArizonaDepartmentofPublicSafetylaws2forbusesandaveragepostedspeedlimitson
roadwayswithintheEPZ.
1 www.census.gov 2
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 21 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
- 8. Roadwaycapacityestimatesarebasedonfieldsurveysperformedin2020(verifiedby
aerial imagery), and the application of the Highway Capacity Manual 2016. Based on
discussionswithAPSandMaricopaCounty,noroadwayconstructionprojects(affecting
roadwaycapacityestimates)willbeconsideredforthisstudy.
2.2 MethodologicalAssumptions
- 1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingaccident
thatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing3(asperNRCguidance):
- a. Advisory to Evacuate (ATE) notification is announced coincident with the siren
alerting.
- b. Mobilization of the general population will commence within 15 minutes after
sirenalerting.
- c. TheETEaremeasuredrelativetotheATE.
- 2. ThecenterpointoftheplantislocatedatthecenteroftheUnit2containmentbuilding
33°2313.92N,112°5152.2W.
- 3. TheDYNEVII4systemisusedtocomputeETEinthisstudy.
- 4. Evacueeswilldrivesafely,travelradiallyawayfromtheplanttotheextentpracticable
given the highway network, and obey all control devices and traffic guides. All major
evacuationroutesareusedintheanalysis.
- 5. TheexistingEPZandSectorboundariesareused.SeeFigure31.
- 6. TheShadowRegionextendsto15milesradiallyfromtheplantorapproximately5miles
radiallyfromtheEPZboundary,asperNRCguidance.SeeFigure72.
- 7. Onehundredpercent(100%)ofthepeoplewithintheimpactedkeyholewillevacuate.
Twentypercent(20%)ofthepopulationwithintheShadowRegionandwithinSectorsof
theEPZnotadvisedtoevacuatewillvoluntarilyevacuate,asshowninFigure21,asper
NRCguidance.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentage
ofvoluntaryevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).
- 8. Shadowpopulationcharacteristics(householdsize,evacuatingvehiclesperhousehold,
and mobilization time) is assumed to be the same as that of the permanent resident
populationwithintheEPZ.
3 We emphasize that the adoption of this planning basis is not a representation that these events will occur within the indicated time frame. Rather, these assumptions are necessary in order to:
- 1. Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Generation distribution in the format recommended in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863.
- 2. Identify temporal points of reference that uniquely define "Clear Time" and ETE.
It is likely that a longer time will elapse between the various stages of an emergency. See Section 5.1 for more detail.
4 The models of the I-DYNEV System were recognized as state of the art by the Atomic Safety & Licensing Board (ASLB) in past hearings. (Sources: Atomic Safety & Licensing Board Hearings on Seabrook and Shoreham; Urbanik). The models have continuously been refined and extended since those hearings and were independently validated by a consultant retained by the NRC. The new DYNEV II model incorporates the latest technology in traffic simulation and in dynamic traffic assignment.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 22 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
- 9. TheETEarepresentedatthe90thand100thpercentiles,aswellasingraphicalandtabular
format,asperNRCguidance.ThepercentileETEisdefinedastheelapsedtimefromthe
ATEissuedtoaspecificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethatRegionisclearoftheindicated
percentileofevacuees.
- 10. Thisstudydoesnotassumethatroadwaysareemptyatthestartofthefirsttimeperiod.
Rather,thereisa30minuteinitializationperiod(oftenreferredtoasfilltimeintraffic
simulation) wherein the traffic volumes from the first time period are loaded onto
roadwaysinthestudyarea.Theamountofinitialization/filltrafficthatisontheroadways
inthestudyareaatthestartofthefirsttimeperioddependsonthescenarioandthe
regionbeingevacuated.SeeSection3.10.
- 11. Toaccountforboundaryconditionsbeyondthestudyarea,thisstudywillassumea25%
reductionincapacityontwolaneroadsandmultilanehighwaysforroadwaysthathave
trafficsignalsdownstream.The25%reductionincapacityisbasedontheprevalenceof
actuatedtrafficsignalsinthestudyareaandthefactthattheevacuatingtrafficvolume
willbemoresignificantthanthecompetingtrafficvolumeatanydownstreamsignalized
intersections,therebywarrantingamoresignificantpercentage(75%inthiscase)ofthe
signal green time. There is no reduction in capacity for freeways due to boundary
conditions.
- 12. TheETEalsoincludesconsiderationofthrough(ExternalExternal)tripsduringthetime
that such traffic is permitted to enter the evacuated Region. Normal traffic flow is
assumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergency.SeeSection3.9and
3.10.
2.3 AssumptionsonMobilizationTimes
- 1. Tripgenerationtime(alsoknownasmobilizationtime,orthetimerequiredbyevacuees
topreparefortheevacuation)arebasedupontheresultsofthedemographicsurvey(See
Section5andAppendixF).Itisassumedthatstatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuch
thatallprecedingeventsmustbecompletedbeforethecurrenteventcanoccur.
- 2. Onehundredpercent(100%)oftheEPZpopulationcanbenotifiedwithin45minutes,in
accordancewiththe2019FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)Radiological
EmergencyPreparednessProgramManual.
- 3. Commuterpercentages(andpercentageofresidentsawaitingthereturnofacommuter)
are based on the results of the demographic survey. According to the survey results,
49.1% of the households in the EPZ have at least 1 commuter (see Section F.3.1.);
approximately 49.86% of those households with commuters will await the return of a
commuter before beginning their evacuation trip (see Section F.3.2.). Therefore,
approximately24%(49.1%x49.86%=24.48%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnof
acommuter,priortobeginningtheirevacuationtrip.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 23 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
2.4 TransitDependentAssumptions
- 1. Thepercentageoftransitdependentpeoplewhowillridesharewithaneighbororfriend
arebasedontheresultsofthedemographicsurvey.Accordingtothesurveyresults,72%
ofthetransitdependentpopulationwillrideshare.
- 2. Transitvehiclesareusedtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:
- a. Schoolsandchildcarecenters
- i. If schools are in session, buses or passenger car/vans will evacuate
studentsdirectlytothedesignatedreceptionandcarecenters.
ii. Fortheschoolsthatareevacuatedviabuses/vans/cars,itisassumedno
schoolchildrenwillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthe
buses.
iii. Schoolchildren,ifschoolisinsession,aregivenpriorityinassigningtransit
vehicles.
- b. Transitdependentpermanentresidents:
- i. Transitdependentgeneralpopulationareevacuatedtoreceptionandcare
centers. Discussions with the County of Maricopa stated no buses are
availableforthetransitdependentgeneralpopulation.
ii. Accessand/orfunctionalneedspopulationmayrequirecountyassistance
(ambulance,busorwheelchairtransport)toevacuate.Thisisconsidered
separately from the general population ETE, as per NRC guidance.
DiscussionswiththeCountyofMaricopastatedthatindividualswhoneed
access and/or functional assistance will need to call 911 and request
emergencyassistance,andMaricopaCountySheriffsOfficewillhandleas
resourcesallow.
iii. Householdswith3ormorevehicleswereassumedtohavenoneedfor
transitvehicles.
- c. HickmanFarms
- i. The210inmatesfromArizonaStatePrisonevacuatesusingbuses.
ii. Thebusesareincludedwithintheemployeetotalvehicles.(SeeSection
3.4.)
- d. Analysis of the number of required roundtrips (waves) of evacuating transit
vehiclesispresented.
- e. Transport of transitdependent evacuees from reception centers to congregate
carecentersisnotconsideredinthisstudy.
- 3. Transitvehiclecapacities:
- a. Schoolbuses=70studentsperbusforprimaryschoolsand50studentsperbus
formiddle/highschools
- b. CrossroadsAcademyPassengerVans=15studentspervan
- c. CrossroadsAcademyPassengerCars=4studentsand1adultpercar
- d. TransitdependentbusesandbusesusedfortheInmatesatHickmansFarm=30
personsperbus
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 24 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
- e. Ambulatorytransitdependentpersons=30personsperbus
- f. ParatransitVehicles:
- i. Ambulances = 2 bedridden persons (includes advanced and basic life
support)
ii. Wheelchairvans=4wheelchairboundpersons
iii. Wheelchairbuses=15wheelchairboundpersons
- 4. Transitvehiclesmobilizationtimes:
- a. CrossroadsAcademypassengervans/carsandArlingtonSchool,TonopahValley
HighSchoolandRuthFisherSchoolbusesarealreadyattheschoolandcanbe
mobilizedwithin10minutesoftheATE.WintersWellElementarySchoolbuses
willarriveattheschoolwithin20minutes.
- b. Transitdependentbusesaremobilizedwhenapproximately90%ofresidentswith
nocommutershavecompletedtheirmobilizationat165minutesoftheATE.(See
Section5.)
- 5. TransitVehicleloadingtimes:
- a. Schoolbusesareloadedin15minutes.
- b. CrossroadsAcademyPassengerVansandCarsareloadedin8minutes.
- c. TransitDependentbusesrequire1minuteofloadingtimeperpassenger.
- d. Busesforambulatorypatientsrequire1minuteofloadingtimeperambulatory
passenger.
- e. Wheelchairtransportorparatransitvehiclesrequire5minutesofloadingtimeper
passenger.
- f. Ambulancesareloadedin15minutesperbedriddenpassenger.
- 6. ItisassumedthatdriversforalltransitvehiclesidentifiedinTable81areavailable.
2.5 TrafficandAccessControlAssumptions
- 1. TrafficControlPointsandAccessControlPoints(Roadblocks)asdefinedintheapproved
county and state emergency plans were considered in the ETE analysis, as per NRC
guidance.EvacuationsimulationsindicatedthatimplementingtheTCPsandroadblocks
didnotsignificantlyimpacttheETE.Basedonthesimulationresults,theonlyTCPsand
roadblocksconsideredintheETEresultsdocumentedinthisreportarethoselocatedon
I10 to stop the flow of traffic into the area. While Roadblocks are not necessary to
evacuatetheEPZexpediently,staffingtheselocationsdoesstillprovidevalueduringan
evacuationsuchasguidingthoseevacueeswhoarenotfamiliarwiththeareaandserving
asfixedpointsurveillanceifthereisanincidentononeofthemajorevacuationroutes.
SeeSection9andAppendixGforadditionalinformation.
- 2. Theroadblocks(onI10andatI10ramps)areassumedtobestaffedapproximately45
minutes and 20 minutes after the ATE, as per Maricopa County and the Arizona
DepartmentofPublicSafety,respectively.Forthisstudy,itisassumedthatnothrough
trafficwillentertheEPZonI10afterthis45minutetimeperiod.Earlieractivationof
roadblocklocationscoulddelayreturningcommuters.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 25 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
- 3. ItisassumedthatalltransitvehiclesandotherrespondersenteringtheEPZtosupport
theevacuationareunhinderedbypersonnelmanningtheI10roadblocks.
2.6 ScenariosandRegions
- 1. Atotalof12Scenariosrepresentingdifferenttemporalvariations(season,timeofday,
day of week) and weather conditions are considered. Scenarios to be considered are
definedinTable21:
- a. AnoutageatPVNGSwillbeconsideredasthespecialevent(singleormultiday
eventthatattractsasignificantpopulationintotheEPZ;recommendedbyNRC
guidance)forScenario11.
- b. AsperNRCguidance,onesegmentofoneofthehighestvolumeroadwayswillbe
outofserviceoronelaneoutboundonafreewaymustbeclosedforaroadway
impactscenario.ThisstudywillconsidertheclosureofonelaneonInterstate10
(I10)Eastbound,fromtheinterchangewithNWintersburgRd(Exit98)toMiller
Rd(Exit114)fortheroadwayimpactscenario-Scenario12.
- 2. Onetypeofadverseweatherscenarioisconsidered.Rainmayoccurforeitherwinteror
summerscenarios.Itisassumedthattherainbeginsearlierorataboutthesametime
the evacuation advisory is issued. No weatherrelated reduction in the number of
transientswhomaybepresentintheEPZisassumed.
- 3. Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.
The capacity and free flow speed are reduced by 10% for rain, based on recent
transportationengineeringresearch.ThefactorsareshowninTable22.
- 4. Itisassumedthatemploymentisreducedslightlyinthesummerforvacations.
- 5. It is also assumed that mobilization and loading times for transit vehicles are slightly
longerinadverseweather.Itisassumedthatmobilizationtimesare10minuteslongerin
rain.Itisassumedthatloadingtimesare5minuteslongerinrain.RefertoTable22.
- 6. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlyingkeyholeorcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedin
Section 1.4 of NUREG/CR7002, Rev 1. All 16 cardinal and intercardinal wind direction
keyholeconfigurationsareconsidered.RegionstobeconsideredaredefinedinTable6 1.ItisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofSectorsformingaRegionthatisissued
anATEwill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththeplannedroutes.
- 7. Staged evacuation is considered as defined in NUREG/CR7002, Rev. 1 - those people
between2and5mileswillshelterinplaceuntil90%ofthe2MileRegionhasevacuated,
thentheywillevacuate.SeeRegionsR36throughR52inTable61.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 26 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table21.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions
Scenario Season5 DayofWeek TimeofDay Weather Special
1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None
2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None
3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None
4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None
Midweek,
5 Summer Evening Good None
Weekend
6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None
7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None
8 Winter Weekend Midday Good None
9 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None
Midweek,
10 Winter Evening Good None
Weekend
SpecialEvent:Outage
11 Winter Midweek Midday Good
atPVNGS
RoadwayImpact:
12 Summer Midweek Midday Good SingleLaneClosureon
I10Eastbound
Table22.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather
Free MobilizationTime MobilizationTime LoadingTime
Highway Flow forGeneral forSchools/Transit forSchools/
Scenario Capacity* Speed* Population Vehicles TransitVehicles
5minute
Rain 90% 90% NoEffect 10minuteincrease increase/10 minuteincrease
- Adverse weather capacity and speed values are given as a percentage of good weather
conditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.
5 Winter means that school is in session, at normal enrollment levels (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer means that school is in session at summer school enrollment levels (lower than normal enrollment).
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 27 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure21.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 28 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
3 DEMANDESTIMATION
The estimates of demand, expressed in terms of people and vehicles, constitute a critical
elementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:
- 1. An estimate of population within the EPZ, stratified into groups (e.g., resident,
employee,transient,specialfacilities,etc.).
- 2. Anestimate,foreachpopulationgroup,ofmeanoccupancyperevacuatingvehicle.This
estimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.
- 3. Anestimateofpotentialdoublecountingofvehicles.
Appendix E presents much of the source material for the population estimates. Our primary
source of population data, the 2021 data collected by Maricopa County, is not adequate for
directlyestimatingsometransientgroups.
Throughout the year, vacationers and tourists enter the EPZ. These nonresidents may dwell
withintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.,afewdaysoroneortwoweeks)ormayenterandleave
within one day. Estimates of the size of these population components must be obtained, so
thattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeascertained.
The potential for doublecounting people and vehicles must be addressed. For example, a
residentwhoworkswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresidentandagainasanemployee.
Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motel
parking lots may be full at dawn and empty at noon. Estimating counts of vehicles by simply
adding up the capacities of different types of parking facilities will tend to overestimate the
numberoftransientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.
AnalysisofthepopulationcharacteristicsofthePVNGSEPZindicatestheneedtoidentifythree
distinctgroups:
x PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ.
x Transients people who reside outside of the EPZ who enter the area for a specific
purposeandthenleavethearea.
x EmployeespeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZ
onadailybasis.
Estimates of the population and number of evacuating vehicles for each of the population
groupsarepresentedforeachSectorandbypolarcoordinaterepresentation(populationrose).
The PVNGS EPZ is subdivided into 145 Sectors. The Sectors comprising the EPZ are shown in
Figure31.
3.1 PermanentResidents
Thepermanentresidentpopulationestimatesarebasedupon2021datacollectedbyMaricopa
County.TheMaricopaCountyDepartmentofEmergencyManagement(MCDEM)compilesand
updates the 10mile EPZ population demographics annually. This information is derived from
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 31 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
electricutilityconnects/disconnects,specialsurveysandinformationprovidedfromthecounty
planning department.MCDEM geocodes the addresseswhich summarizes population byEPZ
Sector.ThiscompiledinformationisprovidedtoPVNGSwhothenrevisestheonsiteEmergency
Planannuallytoincludetheupdateddemographics.
Table31providesthepermanentresidentpopulationwithintheEPZ,bySector,for2011and
2021basedonthedataprovidedbyMCDEM.
Toestimatethenumberofvehicles,the2021permanentresidentpopulationisdividedbythe
averagehouseholdsizeandthenmultipliedbytheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesper
household.Theaveragehouseholdsize(2.65persons/household)wasestimatedusingthe2021
demographic survey results (see Appendix F, Subsection F.3.1). The number of evacuating
vehicles per household (1.56 vehicles/household - See Appendix F, Subsection F.3.2) was
adaptedfromthedemographicsurveyresults.
PermanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresentedinTable32.Figure32and
Figure 33 present the permanent resident population and permanent resident vehicle
estimates by Sector and distance from PVNGS. This population rose was constructed using
GISsoftware.
Itcanbearguedthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumber
of evacuating vehicles, especially during the summer. It is certainly reasonable to assert that
some portion of the population would be on vacation during the summer and would travel
elsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductioncanbeobtainedasfollows:
x Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforaperiodoverthesummer.
x Assume these vacations, in aggregate, are uniformly dispersed over 10 weeks, i.e., 10
percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwoweekinterval.
x Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.
Onthisbasis,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummer
andbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedto
applynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountfor
residentswhomaybeoutofthearea.
3.2 ShadowPopulation
A portion of the population living outside the evacuation area extending to 15 miles radially
fromPVNGSmayelecttoevacuatewithouthavingbeeninstructedtodoso.Thisareaiscalled
the Shadow Region. Based upon NUREG/CR7002, Rev. 1 guidance, it is assumed that 20
percent of the permanent resident population, based on U.S. Census Bureau data, in the
ShadowRegionwillelecttoevacuate.
TheshadowpopulationestimatesarebasedupontheU.S.2020Censusdatawithanavailability
dateofSeptember16,2021.Theshadowpopulationisestimatedbycuttingthecensusblock
polygonsbytheShadowRegionboundary.Aratiooftheoriginalareaofeachcensusblockand
theupdatedarea(aftercutting)ismultipliedbythetotalblockpopulationtoestimatewhatthe
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 32 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
population is within the Shadow Region. This methodology (referred to as the area ratio
method) assumes that the population is evenly distributed across a census block. The 2020
Census data was then extrapolated to September 2021 using the compound growth formula.
The compound growth rate was computed by comparing the 2010 Census and 2020 Census
data,outlinedinTable33.
Shadow population characteristics (household size, evacuating vehicles per household,
mobilization time) are assumed to be the same as those for the EPZ permanent resident
population.
Table34,Figure34andFigure35presentestimatesoftheshadowpopulationandvehicles,
by Sector. Note, the 2020 Census includes residents living in group quarters, such as skilled
nursing facilities, group homes, etc. These people are transit dependent (will not evacuate in
personal vehicles). To avoid double counting vehicles, the vehicle estimates for these people
have been removed. The resident vehicles in Table 34 and Figure 35 have been adjusted
accordingly.
3.3 TransientPopulation
Transient population groups are defined as those people (who are not permanent residents,
norcommutingemployees)whoentertheEPZforaspecificpurpose(lodging).Transientsmay
spend less than one day or stay overnight at motels. The PVNGS EPZ has one facility that
attractstransients,theSaguaroMineralWellsMotel.
Thenumberofrooms,percentageofoccupiedroomsatpeaktimes,andthenumberofpeople
and vehicles per room for Saguaro Mineral Wells Motel was confirmed by Arizona Public
Service(APS).Thisdatawasusedtoestimatethenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehicles
atthismotel.
AppendixEsummarizesthetransientdatathatwasestimatedfortheEPZ.TableE3presents
the number of transients at Saguaro Mineral Wells Motel. Table 35 presents transient
populationandtransientvehicleestimatesbySector.Figure36andFigure37presentthese
databySectoranddistancefromtheplant.Atotalof23transientsevacuatingin8vehicles(an
averagevehicleoccupancyof2.88transientspervehicle)areintheEPZ.
3.4 Employees
EmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintotwocategories:
x ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ
x ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ.
Thoseofthefirstcategoryarealreadycountedaspartofthepermanentresidentpopulation.
Toavoiddoublecounting,wefocusonlyonthoseemployeescommutingfromoutsidetheEPZ
whowillevacuatealongwiththepermanentresidentpopulation.
DataprovidedbyAPSandMCDEMwereusedtoestimatethenumberofemployeescommuting
intotheEPZ.SincenotallemployeesareworkingatfacilitieswithintheEPZatonetime,the
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 33 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
maximumshiftnumberwasused.TableE2inAppendixEpresentstheemployees(MaxShift)
andemployeeswhoarenotresidentsoftheEPZ.Avehicleoccupancyof1.18employeesper
vehicleobtainedfromthedemographicsurvey(SeeAppendixF,SubsectionF.3.1,Commuter
Travel Modes) was used to determine the number of evacuating employee vehicles for all
majoremployers.
BasedonthedataprovidedbyAPS,thereare2,611employeesatPVNGS;approximately95%
oftheemployeestravelfromoutsideoftheEPZ.Assuch,thereare2,480(2,611x95%=2,480)
employees commuting into the EPZ. Applying the vehicle occupancy of 1.18 employees per
vehiclediscussedabove,resultingin2,102(2,480÷1.18=2,102)employeevehicles.
AccordingtoHickmansFamilyFarms,inmatesfromtheArizonaStatePrisonaretransportedto
thefarm(locatedinSectorE6).Duringamaxshift,thereare210inmatesworkingatHickmans
FamilyFarms.Theseinmateswouldevacuateonbuses.Assumingacapacityof30peopleper
bus, 7 buses (14 vehicles) were considered at this facility. For this reason, the number of
vehiclesusedinthisstudyatthisfacilityreflectsthenumberofemployeescommutingintothe
EPZplusthe14busesneededfortheinmates.
Table 36 presents the employee and employee vehicles commuting into the EPZ by Sector.
Figure38andFigure39presentthesedatabySector.
3.5 TransitDependentPopulation
The2020demographicsurvey(seeAppendixF)resultswereusedtoestimatetheportionofthe
populationrequiringtransitservice,including:
- Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicleavailable.
- Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailableat
thetimetheevacuationisadvised.
Inthelattergroup,thevehicle(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnot
expectedtoreturn)hometoevacuatethehousehold.
Table37presentstheestimatedcalculationsoftransitdependentpeople.Notethefollowing:
- Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren. For those
evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered,
separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren. The actual need for
transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates. However,
estimatesoftransitvehiclesarenotreducedwhenschoolsareinsession.
- It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transitdependent persons
willevacuatebyridesharingwithneighbors,friendsorfamily.Forexample,nearly
80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheir
own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends. Other documents report that
approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride
sharing. Based on the results of the demographic survey, 72% of the transit dependentpopulationwillrideshare.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 34 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransitdependentpersonsisbasedonan
estimateofanaveragebusoccupancyof30personsattheconclusionofthebusrun.Transit
vehicleseatingcapacitiestypicallyequalorexceed60childrenonaverage(roughlyequivalent
to40adults).Iftransitvehicleevacueesaretwothirdsadultsandonethirdchildren,thenthe
numberofadultseatstakenby30personsis20+(2/3x10)=27.Onthisbasis,theaverage
load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service
exceeds the estimates of Table 37 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be
accommodatedbytheavailablebusseatingcapacity.
2 20 10 40 1.5 1.00
3 Table37indicatesthattransportationmustbeprovidedfor59people.Therefore,atotalof2
bus runs are required to transport this population to reception and care centers. In order to
serviceallofthetransitdependentpopulationandhaveatleastonebusdrivethrougheachof
the Sectors picking up transitdependent people, 4 bus runs are used in the ETE calculations
(even though only 2 buses are needed from a capacity standpoint). These buses are
representedastwovehiclesintheETEsimulationsduetotheirlargersizeandmoresluggish
operatingcharacteristics.
Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublic
transitorrideshare,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredforthePVNGSEPZ:
. %
Where,
A=Percentofhouseholdswithcommuters
C=Percentofhouseholdswhowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuter
3,665 0.00 0.225 1.72 1 0.491 0.509 0.491 2.56 2 0.491 0.509 211
1 0.72 30 0.28 211 30 2
Thesecalculations,basedonthe2020demographicsurveyresults,areexplainedasfollows:
- There were no households (HH) with no vehicles available, so the term 0.00
representsthosewhodonothaveaccesstoavehicle.
- The members of HH with one (1) vehicle away (22.5%), who are at home equals
(1.721).ThenumberofHHwherethecommuterwillnotreturnhomeisequalto
(3,665x0.225x0.72x0.491x0.509),as49.1%ofEPZhouseholdshaveacommuter,
50.9%ofwhichwouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergency.Thenumber
ofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorrideshareisequaltotheproduct
ofthesetwoterms.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 35 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
- ThemembersofHHwithtwo(2)vehiclesthatareaway(49.1%),whoareathome,
equals (2.562). The number of HH where neither commuter will return home is
equal to 3,665 x 0.491 x 0.56 x (0.491 x 0.509)2. The number of persons who will
evacuatebypublictransitorrideshareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms
(the last term is squared to represent the probability that neither commuter will
return).
- Households with 3 or more vehicles are assumed to have no need for transit
vehicles.
- ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHH
withnovehicles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.
The estimate of transitdependent population in Table 37 is far less than the number of
registered transitdependent persons in the EPZ as provided by MCDEM (discussed below in
Section3.8.
3.6 SchoolPopulationDemand
Table 38 presents the school population and transportation requirements for the direct
evacuationofallschoolswithinthestudyareaforthe20202021schoolyear.Thisinformation
wasprovidedbyMCDEM.ThecolumninTable38entitledBuses/PassengerVansRequired
specifiesthenumberofbuses/passengervansrequiredforeachschoolunderthefollowingset
ofassumptionsandestimates:
- Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.
- Whilemanyhighschoolstudentscommutetoschoolusingprivateautomobiles(as
discussedinSection2.4ofNUREG/CR7002,Rev.1),theestimateofbusesrequired
forschoolevacuationdoesnotconsidertheuseoftheseprivatevehicles.
- Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto70forprimaryschoolsand50
formiddleandhighschools.
- CrossroadsAcademyPassengerVansandPassengerCars=15studentspervanand
4studentsand1adult,respectively.
- Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their
privatevehicles.
- Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.
- Palo Verde Elementary School will be evacuated (even though it is in the Shadow
Region)intheeventofanemergencyatthePVNGSaccordingtoMCDEM.
Implementation of a process to confirm individual school transportation needs prior to bus
dispatch may improve bus utilization. In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the
schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any
high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school
authorities). Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed
due to children being picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other
facilitiesorthosepersonswhodonothaveaccesstoprivatevehiclesortoridesharing.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 36 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
School buses/passenger vans are represented as two vehicles in the ETE simulations due to
theirlargersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristics.
3.7 SpecialEvent
Duringthekickoffmeeting,anoutageattheplantwasdeterminedtodrawthemostpeople
intotheEPZ,asperNRCGuidance.Assuch,anoutageattheplantisconsideredasthespecial
event(Scenario11)fortheETEstudy.TheplantoutagesoccurduringtheweekdaysinMarch
andOctober.Thiseventisconsideredamultidayevent.
DataobtainedfromAPSpersonnelindicatethereare826additionalworkersduringanoutage
at peak times. Additionally, there are approximately 478 special projects support contractors
thatareonsiteduringanoutage,ofwhich71%workduringthedayand29%workatnight.
During max shift, there are a total of 1,304 additional employees at the PVNGS site. Using a
vehicle occupancy factor of 1.18 obtained from the demographic survey, there are a total of
1,105additionalvehiclesattheplantduringanoutage.Thesevehicleswereincorporatedatthe
PVNGSparkinglotsonWBaselineRoad.
Publictransportationisnotprovidedforthiseventandwasnotconsideredinthespecialevent
analysis. The special event vehicle trips were generated utilizing the same mobilization
distributionsasemployees.
3.8 Accessand/orFunctionalNeedsPopulation
The MCDEM has a registration for transitdependent and access and/or functional needs
persons.Basedonthetypeoftransportationrequired(dataprovidedbyMCDEM)thereare354
accessand/orfunctionalneedspeople(284busesand70paratransit)1withintheEPZ,asshown
in Table 39. Buses and paratransit buses needed to evacuate the access and/or functional
needspopulationarerepresentedastwovehiclesintheETEsimulationsduetotheirlargersize
andmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristics.
3.9 ExternalTraffic
VehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(externalexternaltrips)atthetimeofanemergency
event.AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE)isannounced,thesepassthroughtravelerswillalso
evacuate.ThesethroughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutetraversingtheEPZ-
Interstate(I)10.Itisassumedthatthistrafficwillcontinuetoenterthestudyareaduringthe
first45minutesfollowingtheATE.(SeeSection9andAppendixGforfurtherdiscussion.)
Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data was obtained from the Arizona Department of
Transportation (AZDOT) to estimate the number of vehicles per hour on I10. The AADT was
multipliedbytheKFactor,whichistheproportionoftheAADTonaroadwaysegmentorlink
duringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusually
the30thhighesthourlytrafficvolumeoftheyear,measuredinvehiclesperhour(vph).TheDHV
1 Breakdown of the access and/or functional needs population provided directly by MCDEM.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 37 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
is then multiplied by the DFactor, which is the proportion of the DHV occurring in the peak
directionoftravel(alsoknownasthedirectionalsplit).Theresultingvaluesarethedirectional
design hourly volumes (DDHV) and are presented in Table 310, for each of the routes
considered. The DDHV is then multiplied by 0.75 hours (Roadblocks are assumed to be
activated at 45 minutes - 0.75 hours - after the ATE based upon information provided by
MCDEM and APS) to estimate the total number of external vehicles loaded on the analysis
network.Asindicated,thereare3,070vehiclesenteringtheEPZasexternalexternaltripsprior
totheactivationoftheRoadblockandthediversionofthistraffic.Thisnumberisreducedby
60%foreveningscenarios(Scenarios5and10)asdiscussedinSection6.
3.10 BackgroundTraffic
Section 5 discusses the time needed for the people in the EPZ to mobilize and begin their
evacuationtrips.AsshowninTable58,thereare14timeperiodsduringwhichtrafficisloaded
on to roadways in the study areato model the mobilization time ofpeople in the EPZ. Note,
thereisnotrafficgeneratedduringthe15thtimeperiod,asthistimeperiodisintendedtoallow
trafficthathasalreadybegunevacuatingtoclearthestudyareaboundaries.
This study does not assume that roadways are empty at the start of Time Period 1. Rather,
there is a 30minute initialization time period (often referred to as fill time in traffic
simulation) wherein the traffic volumes from Time Period 1 are loaded onto roadways in the
studyarea.Theamountofinitialization/filltrafficthatisontheroadwaysinthestudyareaat
thestartofTimePeriod1dependsonthescenarioandtheregionbeingevacuated(seeSection
6). There are 1,829 vehicles on the roadways in the study area at the end of fill time for an
evacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1(summer,midweek,midday,with
goodweather)conditions.
3.11 SummaryofDemand
A summary of population and vehicle demand is provided in Table 310 and Table 312,
respectively.Thissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedinthissection.Atotalof
19,260peopleand13,808vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy.
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Table31.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation
Sector 2011Population2 2021Population3
1MileRing 41 24
4 1,714 1,951
A
B 1,566 1,398
C 1,493 1,324
D 2,939 1,490
E 1,120 893
F 923 585
G 475 420
H 157 68
J 30 0
K 7 6
L 60 35
M 94 99
N 21 4
P 0 0
Q 590 384
R 1,244 1,031
EPZTOTAL 12,474 9,712
EPZPopulationGrowth(2011-2021): 22.14%
2 Maricopa County Palo Verde Population Survey - Residents, December 2011 3
Maricopa County Palo Verde Population Survey - Residents, September 2021 4
Stage Stop RV Park is located in Sector A. The population at this facility is assumed to be included with the permanent resident population due to the large population reported within Sector A between 2 and 3 miles of the plant and presence of electrical hook-ups at the facility.
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Table32.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbySector
Sector 2021Population 2021ResidentVehicles
1MileRing 24 14
A5 1,951 1,149
B 1,398 821
C 1,324 780
D 1,490 877
E 893 525
F 585 344
G 420 247
H 68 40
J 0 0
K 6 4
L 35 20
M 99 58
N 4 2
P 0 0
Q 384 225
R 1,031 606
EPZTOTAL 9,712 5,712
Table33.ShadowPopulationGrowthRate
Year Population
2010 6,180
2020 11,143
GrowthRate**: 6.1%
PopulationGrowthRate= 1
2021Population=2020Populationx(1+PopulationGrowthRate)
- Growthrateusedexclusivelyforextrapolatingshadowpopulation
5 Stage Stop RV Park is located in Sector A. The population at this facility is assumed to be included with the permanent resident population due to the large population reported within Sector A between 2 and 3 miles of the plant and presence of electrical hook-ups at the facility.
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Table34.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector
Sector 2021Population EvacuatingVehicles
N 344 200
NNE 32 19
NE 6,002 3,531
ENE 2,919 1,703
E 1,992 1,157
ESE 200 117
SE 2 2
SSE 23 14
S 0 0
SSW 0 0
SW 0 0
WSW 0 0
W 0 0
WNW 51 30
NW 106 62
NNW 240 138
TOTAL 11,911 6,973
Table35.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles
Sector Transients TransientVehicles
1MileRing 0 0
A 0 0
B 0 0
C 0 0
D 0 0
E 0 0
F 0 0
G 0 0
H 0 0
J 0 0
K 0 0
L 0 0
M 0 0
N 0 0
P 0 0
Q 0 0
R 23 8
TOTAL 23 8
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Table36.SummaryofEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesCommutingintotheEPZ
Sector Employees EmployeeVehicles
1MileRing 2,480 2,102
A 0 0
B 0 0
C 0 0
D 57 48
E 221 23
F 0 0
G 0 0
H 243 206
J 0 0
K 0 0
L 0 0
M 0 0
N 0 0
P 0 0
Q 0 0
R 34 29
TOTAL 3,035 2,408
Table37.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates
SurveyAverage Survey Percent
HHSize Estimated SurveyPercentHH Survey PercentHH Total People Population
2021 withIndicated No. withIndicatedNo.of PercentHH withNon People Estimated Requiring Requiring
EPZ No.ofVehicles of Vehicles with Returning Requiring Ridesharing Public Public
Population 0 1 2 Households 0 1 2 Commuters Commuters Transport Percentage Transit Transit
9,712 0.00 1.72 2.56 3,665 0.0% 22.5% 49.1% 49.1% 50.9% 211 72% 59 0.6%
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Table38.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates
Buses/Passenger
Sector SchoolName Enrollment VansRequired
A TonopahValleyHighSchool 810 17
A RuthFisherMiddleSchool 731 15
A CrossroadsAcademy 15 1
C WintersWellElementarySchool 460 7
F ArlingtonElementarySchool 280 4
6 ShadowRegion PaloVerdeElementarySchool 450 7
STUDYAREATOTAL: 2,746 51
Table39.Accessand/orFunctionalNeedsDemandSummary
PopulationGroup Population Vehiclesdeployed
Ambulatory 284 10
WheelchairBound 70 7
EPZTOTAL: 354 17
Table310.PVNGSEPZExternalTraffic
Upstream Downstream AZDOT Hourly External
RoadName Direction KFactor8 DFactor8
Node Node AADT7 Volume Traffic
8023 137 I10 Eastbound 38,266 0.107 0.5 2,047 1,535
8021 20 I10 Westbound 38,266 0.107 0.5 2,047 1,535
TOTAL: 3,070
6 Palo Verde Elementary School is located in the Shadow Region. MCDEM indicated these schools would evacuate in the event of an emergency at the PVNGS.
7 https://azdot.gov/sites/default/files/media/2021/09/2020-AADT-Interstate.pdf 8
HCM 2016
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Table311.SummaryofPopulationDemand9
Permanent Transit Special Shadow External
Sector Transients Employees Schools Total
Residents Dependent Event Population10 Traffic
1MileRing 24 0 0 2,480 0 1,304 0 0 3,808
A 1,951 12 0 0 1,556 0 0 0 3,519
B 1,398 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,407
C 1,324 8 0 0 460 0 0 0 1,792
D 1,490 9 0 57 0 0 0 0 1,556
E 893 5 0 221 0 0 0 0 1,119
F 585 4 0 0 280 0 0 0 869
G 420 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 423
H 68 0 0 243 0 0 0 0 311
J 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
K 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6
L 35 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 35
M 99 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 100
N 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Q 384 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 386
R 1,031 6 23 34 0 0 0 0 1,094
ShadowRegion 0 0 0 0 45011 0 2,382 0 2,832
Total 9,712 59 23 3,035 2,746 1,304 2,382 0 19,261
9 The MCDEM provided the access and/or functional needs population by transportation breakdown directly, no spatial distribution of the transportation was provided. As such, they are not included in this table.
10 Shadow Population has been reduced to 20%. Refer to Figure 2-1 for additional information.
11 According to MCDEM, Palo Verde Elementary School evacuates even though it is located in the Shadow Region.
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Table312.SummaryofVehicleDemand12
Permanent Transit Special Shadow External
Sector Transients Employees Schools13 Total
Residents Dependent Event Population14 Traffic
1MileRing 14 0 0 2,102 0 1,105 0 0 3,221
A 1,149 2 0 0 66 0 0 0 1,217
B 821 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 823
C 780 2 0 0 14 0 0 0 796
D 877 0 0 48 0 0 0 0 925
E 525 0 0 23 0 0 0 0 548
F 344 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 352
G 247 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 249
H 40 0 0 206 0 0 0 0 246
J 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
K 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4
L 20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 20
M 58 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 58
N 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2
P 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Q 225 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 225
R 606 0 8 29 0 0 0 0 643
ShadowRegion 0 0 0 0 1415 0 1,395 3,070 4,479
Total 5,712 8 8 2,408 102 1,105 1,395 3,070 13,808
12 The MCDEM provided the access and/or functional needs population by transportation breakdown directly, no spatial distribution of the transportation was provided. As such, they are not included in this table.
13 Buses and Passenger Vans evacuating children from schools are represented as two passenger vehicles. Refer to Section 3.6 and Section 8 for additional information.
14 Shadow Population has been reduced to 20%. Refer to Figure 2-1 for additional information.
15 According to MCDEM, Palo Verde Elementary School evacuates even though it is located in the Shadow Region.
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Figure31.SectorsComprisingthePVNGSEPZ
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Figure32.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector
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Figure33.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector
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Figure34.ShadowPopulationbySector
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Figure35.ShadowVehiclesbySector
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Figure36.TransientPopulationbySector
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Figure37.TransientVehiclesbySector
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Figure38.EmployeePopulationbySector
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Figure39.EmployeeVehiclesbySector
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4 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY
Theabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghow
rapidly an evacuation can be completed. The capacity of a road is defined as the maximum
hourly rate at which persons or vehicles can reasonably be expected to traverse a point or
uniform section of a lane of roadway during a given time period under prevailing roadway,
trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2016HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2016).This
sectiondiscusseshowthecapacityoftheroadwaynetworkwasestimated.
In discussing capacity, different operating conditions have been assigned alphabetical
designations, A through F, to reflect the range of traffic operational characteristics. These
designations have been termed "Levels of Service" (LOS). For example, LOS A connotes
freeflowandhighspeedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSE
describestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.
Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,isServiceVolume.Servicevolume(SV)is
definedasThemaximumhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbe
expected to traverse a point or uniform section of a roadway during an hour under specific
assumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice.Thisdefinitionissimilarto
thatforcapacity.ThemajordistinctionisthatvaluesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,while
capacityistheSVattheupperboundofLOSE,only.
Thus,insimpleterms,SVisthemaximumtrafficthatcantravelonaroadandstillmaintaina
certain perceived level of quality to a driver based on the A, B, C, rating system (LOS). Any
additionalvehiclesabovetheSVwoulddroptheratingtoalowerlettergrade.
ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit1237oftheHCM2016.Asindicatedthere,theSVvaries
with Free Flow Speed (FFS), and LOS. The SV is calculated by the DYNEV II simulation model,
basedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.
Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto:
x Lanewidth
x Shoulderwidth
x Pavementcondition
x Horizontalandverticalalignment(curvatureandgrade)
x Percenttrucktraffic
x Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal)
x Weatherconditions(rain,windspeed)
These factors are considered during the road survey and in the capacity estimation process;
somefactorshavegreaterinfluenceoncapacitythanothers.Forexample,laneandshoulder
widthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS1)accordingtoExhibit157
of the HCM 2016. Consequently, lane and shoulder widths at the narrowest points were
observed during the road survey and these observations were recorded, but no detailed
1 A very rough estimate of BFFS might be taken as the posted speed limit plus 10 mph (HCM 2016 Page 15-15).
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measurements of lane or shoulder width were taken. Horizontal and vertical alignment can
influencebothFFSandcapacity.TheestimatedFFSweremeasuredusingthesurveyvehicles
speedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.Freeflowspeedsranged
from20to75mph.CapacityisestimatedfromtheproceduresoftheHCM2016.Forexample,
HCM 2016 Exhibit 71(b) shows the sensitivity of SV at the upper bound of LOS D to grade
(capacityistheSVattheupperboundofLOSE).
Theamountoftrafficthatcanflowonaroadwayiseffectivelygovernedbyvehiclespeedand
spacing.Thefasterthatvehiclescantravelwhencloselyspaced,thehighertheamountofflow.
AsdiscussedinSection2.6,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailing
conditions.Adverseconditionslikeinclementweather,construction,andotherincidentstend
toslowtrafficdownandoften,alsoincreasevehicletovehiclesseparation,thusdecreasingthe
amountoftrafficflow.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuchasrainreduce
thevaluesoffreeflowspeedandofhighwaycapacitybyapproximately10percent.Overthe
lastdecadenewstudieshavebeenmadeontheeffectsofrainontrafficcapacity.Thesestudies
indicate a range of effects between 5 and 20 percent depending on wind speed and
precipitation rates. As indicated in Section 2.6, we employ a reduction in free speed and in
highwaycapacityof10percentforrain.
Since congestion arising from evacuation may be significant, estimates of roadway capacity
mustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajor
factorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.
Rural highways generally consist of: (1) one or more uniform sections with limited access
(driveways, parking areas) characterized by uninterrupted flow; and (2) approaches to at grade intersections where flow can be interrupted by a control device or by turning or
crossing traffic at the intersection. Due to these differences, separate estimates of capacity
must be made for each section. Often, the approach to the intersection is widened by the
additionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsorturnbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacity
oftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.Theseadditional
lanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.
4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections
Atgradeintersectionsareapttobecomethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytraffic
volumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespective
competing traffic streams by exerting some form of control. During evacuation, control at
critical intersections will often be provided by traffic control personnel assigned for that
purpose, whose directions may supersede traffic control devices. See Appendix G for more
information.
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The perlane capacity of an approach to a signalized intersection can be expressed
(simplistically)inthefollowingform:
3600 3600
,
where:
Qcap,m = Capacity of a single lane of traffic on an approach, which executes
movement,m,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)
hm = Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecuting
movement,m;secondspervehicle
G = Mean duration of GREEN time servicing vehicles that are executing
movement,m,foreachsignalcycle;seconds
L = Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;seconds
C = Durationofeachsignalcycle;seconds
Pm = ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m,
fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.
m = The movement executed by vehicles after they enter the
intersection:through,leftturn,rightturn,anddiagonal.
The turnmovementspecific mean discharge headway hm, depends in a complex way upon
manyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,
thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischarge
headway", hsat, which applies to through vehicles that are not impeded by other conflicting
traffic streams.This value, itself, depends upon many factors including motorist behavior.
Formally,wecanwrite,
, , ,
where:
hsat = Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicle
F1,F2 = Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencinghm
fm() = Complexfunctionrelatinghmtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofhsat,
F1,F2,
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Theestimationofhmforspecifiedvaluesofhsat,F1,F2,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVII
simulation model by a mathematical model2. The resulting values for hm always satisfy the
condition:
That is, the turnmovementspecific discharge headways are always greater than, or equal to
the saturation discharge headway for through vehicles. These headways (or its inverse
equivalent,saturationflowrate),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheprocedures
oftheHCM2016.
TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisEvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)
reportandthecomplexityofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters19,20and21
intheHCM2016addressthistopic.Thefactors,F1,F2,,influencingsaturationflowrateare
identifiedinequation(198)oftheHCM2016.
ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasing
plansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignal
installations allow the proportion of green time allocated (Pm) for each approach to each
intersection to be determined by the expected traffic volumes on each approach during
evacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumand
minimum phase duration constraints; 2 seconds of yellow time are indicated for each signal
phaseand1secondofallredtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispre timed,theyellowandallredtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of
2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.
4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway
Thecapacityofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunction
ofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.,percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetraffic
stream)and,ofcourse,motoristbehavior.ThereisafundamentalrelationshipwhichrelatesSV
(i.e.,thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiventimeperiod)
totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure41illustratesthisrelationship.
Asindicated,therearetwoflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve);and(2)ForcedFlow
(right side). In the Free Flow regime, the traffic demand is fully serviced; the SV increases as
demand volume and density increase, until the SV attains its maximum value, which is the
capacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighwaydensityincrease
beyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.,theSV)canactually
decline below capacity (capacity drop). Therefore, in order to realistically represent traffic
performanceduringcongestedconditions(i.e.,whendemandexceedscapacity),itisnecessary
toestimatetheservicevolume,VF,undercongestedconditions.
2 Lieberman, E., "Determining Lateral Deployment of Traffic on an Approach to an Intersection", McShane, W. & Lieberman, E.,
"Service Rates of Mixed Traffic on the Far Left Lane of an Approach". Both papers appear in Transportation Research Record 772, 1980. Lieberman, E., Xin, W., Macroscopic Traffic Modeling for Large-Scale Evacuation Planning, presented at the TRB 2012 Annual Meeting, January 22-26, 2012.
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ThevalueofVFcanbeexpressedas:
where:
R = Reductionfactorwhichislessthanunity
We have employed a value of R=0.90.The advisability of such a capacity reduction factor is
baseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafalloffintheserviceflowratewhencongestion
occursatbottlenecksorchokepointsonafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson3describea
research program that collected data from a computerbased surveillance system (loop
detectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincities
metro area in Minnesota over a 7week period. When flow breakdown occurs, queues are
formed which discharge at lower flow rates than the maximum capacity prior to observed
breakdown. These queue discharge flow (QDF) rates vary from one location to the next and
vary by day of week and time of day based upon local circumstances. The cited reference
presentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompares
with the nominal capacity estimate of 2,250 pcphpl estimated for the ETE and indicated in
AppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoa
capacityreductionfactorof0.90.
SincetheprincipalobjectiveofETEanalysesistodeveloparealisticestimateofevacuation
times,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor(R=0.90)isjustified.This
factorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel.
Rural roads, like freeways, are classified as uninterrupted flow facilities. (This is in contrast
withurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedintersectionsandareclassified
asinterruptedflowfacilities.)As such,trafficflowalong ruralroadsissubjecttothesame
effects as freeways in the event traffic demand exceeds the nominal capacity, resulting in
queuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocations
away from intersections. Any breakdowns on rural roads are generally experienced at
intersections where other model logic applies, or at lane drops which reduce capacity there.
Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroads,butrarely,ifever,
activated.
The estimated value of capacity is based primarily upon the type of facility and on roadway
geometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfreeflow
speedsandlanecapacity.Exhibit1546intheHCM2016wasreferencedtoestimatesaturation
flowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshouldersonfreeflowspeedandoncapacityisnot
material, particularly when flow is predominantly in one direction as is the case during an
evacuation.
Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,VE,basedonobservationsmade
traveling over each section of theevacuation network, based on the posted speed limits and
travelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetotheHCM2016.TheDYNEVIIsimulation
3 Lei Zhang and David Levinson, Some Properties of Flows at Freeway Bottlenecks, Transportation Research Record 1883, 2004.
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model determines for each highway section, represented as a network link, whether its
capacity would be limited by the "sectionspecific" service volume, VE, or by the
intersectionspecificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.
4.3 ApplicationtothePVNGSStudyArea
Aspartofthedevelopmentofthelinknodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateof
roadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedherein
iscontainedin:
2016HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2016)
TransportationResearchBoard
NationalResearchCouncil
Washington,D.C.
The highway system in the study area consists primarily of three categories of roads and, of
course,intersections:
x TwoLaneroads:Local,State
x MultilaneHighways(atgrade)
x Freeways
Eachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.
4.3.1 TwoLaneRoads
Ref:HCM2016Chapter15
Twolaneroadscomprisethemajorityofhighwayswithinthestudyarea.Theperlanecapacity
of a twolane highway is estimated at 1,700 passenger cars per hour (pc/h). This estimate is
essentially independent of the directional distribution of traffic volume except that, for
extended distances, the twoway capacity will not exceed 3,200 pc/h. The HCM 2016
procedures then estimate LOS and Average Travel Speed. The DYNEV II simulation model
accepts the specified value of capacity as input and computes average speed based on the
timevaryingdemand:capacityrelations.
Based on the field survey and on expected traffic operations associated with evacuation
scenarios:
x Most sections of twolane roads within the study area are classified as Class I, with
"levelterrain";somearerollingterrain.
x ClassIIhighwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.
4.3.2 MultilaneHighway
Ref:HCM2016Chapter12
Exhibit128oftheHCM2016presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaperlanecapacityranging
fromapproximately1,900to2,300pc/h,forfreespeedsof45to70mph,respectively.Based
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on observation, the multilane highways outside of urban areas within the study area, service
traffic with freespeeds in this range. The actual timevarying speeds computed by the
simulation model reflect the demand and capacity relationship and the impact of control at
intersections. A conservative estimate of perlane capacity of 1,900 pc/h is adopted for this
studyformultilanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.
4.3.3 Freeways
Ref:HCM2016Chapters10,12,13,14
Chapter 10 of the HCM 2016 describes a procedure for integrating the results obtained in
Chapters12,13and14,whichcomputecapacityandLOSforfreewaycomponents.Chapter10
alsopresentsadiscussionofsimulationmodels.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelautomatically
performsthisintegrationprocess.
Chapter 12 of the HCM 2016 presents procedures for estimating capacity and LOS for Basic
FreewaySegments".Exhibit1237oftheHCM2016presentscapacityvs.freespeedestimates,
whichareprovidedbelow.
FreeSpeed(mph): 55 60 65 70+
PerLaneCapacity(pc/h): 2,250 2,300 2,350 2,400
Theinputstothesimulationmodelarehighwaygeometrics,freespeedsandcapacitybasedon
fieldobservations.Thesimulationlogiccalculatesactualtimevaryingspeedsbasedondemand:
capacityrelationships.Aconservativeestimateofperlanecapacityof2,250pc/hisadoptedfor
thisstudyforfreeways,asshowninAppendixK.
Chapter13oftheHCM2016presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacity,speed,densityand
LOS for freeway weaving sections. The simulation model contains logic that relates speed to
demand volume: capacity ratio. The value of capacity obtained from the computational
procedures detailed in Chapter 13 depends on the "Type" and geometrics of the weaving
segmentandonthe"VolumeRatio"(ratioofweavingvolumetototalvolume).
Chapter 14 of the HCM 2016 presents procedures for estimating capacities of ramps and of
"merge"areas.Therearethreesignificantfactorstothedeterminationofcapacityofaramp freeway junction: The capacity of the freeway immediately downstream of an onramp or
immediately upstream of an offramp; the capacity of the ramp roadway; and the maximum
flow rate entering the ramp influence area. In most cases, the freeway capacity is the
controllingfactor.ValuesofthismergeareacapacityarepresentedinExhibit1410oftheHCM
2016 and depend on the number of freeway lanes and on the freeway free speed. Ramp
capacityispresentedinExhibit1412andisafunctionoftherampFFS.TheDYNEVIIsimulation
model logic simulates the merging operations of the ramp and freeway traffic in accord with
theproceduresinChapter14oftheHCM2016.Ifcongestionresultsfromanexcessofdemand
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relativetocapacity,thenthemodelallocatesserviceappropriatelytothetwoenteringtraffic
streamsandproducesLOSFconditions(TheHCM2016doesnotaddressLOSFexplicitly).
4.3.4 Intersections
Ref:HCM2016Chapters19,20,21,22
Procedures for estimating capacity and LOS for approaches to intersections are presented in
Chapter19(signalizedintersections),Chapters20,21(unsignalizedintersections)andChapter
22(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelengthof
thesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.
Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both
2way and allway) and traffic signal controlled intersections. Where intersections are
controlled by fixed time controllers, traffic signal timings are set to reflect average (non evacuation) traffic conditions. Actuated traffic signal settings respond to the timevarying
demands of evacuation traffic to adjust the relative capacities of the competing intersection
approaches.
The model is also capable of modeling the presence of manned traffic control. At specific
locationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontrol
to implement manned control, the model will use actuated signal timings that reflect the
presenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleft turns, contraflow lanes) is used, the strategy is modeled explicitly. Where applicable, the
locationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendix
K.
4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimation
Chapter 6 of the HCM 2016 is entitled, HCM and Alternative Analysis Tools. The chapter
discussestheuseofalternativetoolssuchassimulationmodelingtoevaluatetheoperational
performance of highway networks. Among the reasons cited in Chapter 6 to consider using
simulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:
The system under study involves a group of different facilities or travel modes with
mutualinteractionsinvolvingseveralHCMchapters.Alternativetoolsareabletoanalyze
thesefacilitiesasasinglesystem.
Thisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacross
an area encompassing an EPZ operating under evacuation conditions. The model utilized for
this study, DYNEV II, is further described in Appendix C. It is essential to recognize that
simulationmodelsdonotreplicatethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM2016-they
replacetheseproceduresbydescribingthecomplexinteractionsoftrafficflowandcomputing
MeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeand
bylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2016proceduresonlyforthe
purposeofestimatingcapacity.
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All simulation models must be calibrated properly with field observations that quantify the
performance parameters applicable to the analysis network. Two of the most important of
these are: (1) FFS; and (2) saturation headway, hsat. The first of these is estimated by direct
observation during the road survey; the second is estimated using the concepts of the HCM
2016,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,foreachnetworklink.
Itisimportanttonotethatsimulationisamathematicalrepresentationofanassumedsetof
conditionsusingthebestavailableknowledgeandunderstandingoftrafficflowandavailable
inputs. Simulation should not be assumed to be a prediction of what will happen under any
event because a real evacuation can be impacted by an infinite number of things - many of
whichwilldifferfromthesetestcases-andmanyotherscannotbetakenintoaccountwiththe
toolsavailable.
4.5 BoundaryConditions
AsillustratedinFigure12andinAppendixK,thelinknodeanalysisnetworkusedforthisstudy
isfinite.Theanalysisnetworkdoesextendwellbeyondthe15mileradialstudyareainsome
locationsinordertomodelintersectionswithothermajorevacuationroutesbeyondthestudy
area. However, the network does have an end at the destination (exit) nodes asdiscussed in
Appendix C. Beyond these destination nodes, there may be signalized intersections or merge
points that impact the capacity of the evacuation routes leaving the study area. Rather than
neglecttheseboundaryconditions,thisstudyassumesa25%reductionincapacityontwo lane roads (Section 4.3.1 above) and multilane highways (Section 4.3.2 above). There is no
reductionincapacityforfreewaysduetoboundaryconditions.The25%reductionincapacityis
based on the prevalence of actuated traffic signals in the study area and the fact that the
evacuating traffic volume will be more significant than the competing traffic volume at any
downstreamsignalizedintersections,therebywarrantingamoresignificantpercentage(75%in
thiscase)ofthesignalgreentime.
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Volume, vph Capacity Drop Qmax R Qmax Qs Density, vpm Flow Regimes Speed, mph Free Forced vf R vc Density, vpm kf kopt kj ks
Figure41.FundamentalDiagrams
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5 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME
Federal guidance (see NUREG CR7002, Rev. 1) specify that the planner estimate the
distributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublic
to prepare for the evacuation trip. The elapsed time associated with each activity is
representedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesbetweenmembersofthepublic.
The quantification of these activitybased distributions relies largely on the results of the
demographic survey. We define the sum of these distributions of elapsed times as the Trip
GenerationTimeDistribution.
5.1 Background
In general, an accident at a nuclear power plant is characterized by the following Emergency
ClassificationLevels(seeSectionCofPartIVofAppendixEof10CFR50fordetails):
- 1. UnusualEvent
- 2. Alert
- 3. SiteAreaEmergency
- 4. GeneralEmergency
Ateachlevel,theFederalguidelinesspecifyasetofActionstobeundertakenbythelicensee,
and by the state and local offsite agencies. As a Planning Basis, we will adopt a conservative
posture, in accordance with Section 1.2 of NUREG/CR7002, Rev. 1, that a rapidly escalating
accidentattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshave
beenimplementedwillbeconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationtime.Wewillassume:
- 1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE)willbeannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.
- 2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesafterthesiren
notification.
- 3. TheETEaremeasuredrelativetotheATE.
Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseevents
willoccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorderto:
- 1. Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Generation distribution in the
formatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR6863.
- 2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.
Itislikelythatalongertimewillelapsebetweenthevariousclassesofanemergency.
For example, suppose one hour elapses from the siren alert to the ATE. In this case, it is
reasonable to expect some degree of spontaneous evacuation by the public during this one hourperiod.Asaresult,thepopulationwithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)willbelower
whentheATEisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenalert.Inaddition,manywillengagein
preparation activities to evacuate, in anticipation that an Advisory will be broadcasted. Thus,
thetimeneededtocompletethemobilizationactivitiesandthenumberofpeopleremainingto
evacuatetheEPZaftertheATE,willbothbesomewhatlessthantheestimatespresentedinthis
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report. Consequently, the ETE presented in this report are higher than the actual evacuation
time,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.
Thenotificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:
- 1. Transmittinginformationusingthealertandnotificationsystems(ANS)availablewithin
theEPZ(e.g.,sirens,telephone,doortodoorcontact,loudspeakers).
- 2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.
ThepopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaofapproximately315squaremilesand
is engaged in a wide variety of activities. It must be anticipated that some time will elapse
betweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.
Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromoneindividualtothenextdependingonwherethat
personis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowill
be directly involved with the evacuation process may be outside the EPZ at the time the
emergency is declared. These people may be commuters, shoppers and other travelers who
residewithintheEPZandwhowillreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceiving
notificationofanemergency.
AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptof
notification can be expressed as a distribution reflecting the different notification times for
differentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibleto
distinguish between different population groups and different dayofweek and timeofday
scenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.
Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysiren,and/ortone
alertand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbytelephone,radio,
TVandwordofmouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistribution
oftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,but
dispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.
AsindicatedinSection4.1ofNUREG/CR7002,Rev.1,theinformationrequiredtocomputetrip
generation times is typically obtained from a demographic survey of EPZ residents. Such a
surveywasconductedinsupportofthisETEstudyforthissite.AppendixFdiscussesthesurvey
samplingplan,documentsthesurveyinstrumentutilized,andprovidesthesurveyresults.Itis
importanttonotethattheshapeanddurationoftheevacuationtripmobilizationdistributionis
importantatsiteswheretrafficcongestionisnotexpectedtocausetheETEtoextendbeyond
thetripgenerationtimeperiod.Theremainingdiscussionwillfocusontheapplicationofthe
trip generation data obtained from the demographic survey to the development of the ETE
documentedinthisreport.
5.2 FundamentalConsiderations
Theenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofa
sequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintime
andistheoutcomeofanactivity.
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Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybeinseries(i.e.,toundertake
anactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormore
activities may take place over the same period of time). Activities conducted in series are
functionallydependentonthecompletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelare
functionally independent of one another. The relevant events associated with the publics
preparationforevacuationare:
EventNumber EventDescription
1 Notification
2 AwarenessofSituation
3 DepartWork
4 ArriveHome
5 DepartonEvacuationTrip
Associatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedinTable51.
TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure51.
x AnEventisastatethatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome)
x AnActivityisaprocessthattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleave
work,travelhome)
Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthestateofanindividual(i.e.,theactivity,travelhome
changesthestatefromdepartworktoarrivehome).Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedas
anEventSequence;theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothe
nextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages.
An employee who lives outside the EPZ will follow sequence (c) of Figure 51. A household
within the EPZ that has one or more commuters at work and will await their return before
beginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure51(a).Ahouseholdwithin
theEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,will
followthesecondsequenceofFigure51(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.
Households with no commuters on weekends or in the evening/nighttime, will follow the
applicable sequence in Figure 51(b). Transients will always follow one of the sequences of
Figure51(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediately
withoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.
ItisseenfromFigure51,thattheTripGenerationtime(i.e.,thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent
1 to Event 5) depends on the scenario and will vary from one household to the next.
Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicatedway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivities
preceding that event. That is, to estimate the time distribution of Event 5, we must obtain
estimates of the time distributions of all preceding events. For this study, we adopt the
conservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.
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In some cases, assuming certain events occur strictly sequential (for instance, commuter
returninghomebeforebeginningpreparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,
longer) estimates ofmobilization times. It is reasonable to expect that at least some parts of
theseeventswilloverlapformanyhouseholds,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy.
5.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5
Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedbysummingthetimedistributionsofallprior
contributingactivities.(Thissummingprocessisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceit
isperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).
TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity1o2
Federal regulations (10CFR50 Appendix E, Item IV.D.3) stipulate, [t]he design objective of the
promptpublicalertandnotificationsystemshallbetohavethecapabilitytoessentiallycomplete
theinitialalertingandinitiatenotificationofthepublicwithintheplumeexposurepathwayEPZ
within about 15 minutes. Furthermore, the 2019 Federal Emergency Management (FEMA)
RadiologicalEmergencyPreparedness(REP)ProgramManualPartVSectionB.1Bullet3statesthat
Notification methods will be established to ensure coverage within 45 minutes of essentially
100%ofthepopulation.
Giventhefederalregulationsandguidance,andtheassumedpresenceofsirenswithintheEPZ,it
isassumedthat100percentofthepopulationintheEPZcanbenotifiedwithin45minutes.The
assumeddistributionfornotifyingtheEPZpopulationisprovidedinTable52.Thedistributionis
plottedinFigure52.
DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity2o3
ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelect
toshutdownfollowingnotificationandmostemployeeswouldleaveworkquickly.Commuters,
whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysincefacilitiesoutsidethe
EPZwouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelorfarmersresponsible
forequipment/livestockwouldrequireadditionaltimetosecuretheirfacility.Thedistribution
of Activity 2 3 shown in Table 53 reflects data obtained by the demographic survey for
employees working inside or outside of the EPZ who returns home prior to evacuating. This
distributionisalsoapplicableforresidentstoleavestores,restaurants,parks,andotherlocations
withintheEPZ.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure52.
DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity3o4
These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the demographic
survey.ThisdistributionplottedinFigure52andlistedinTable54.
DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome:Activity2,4o5
These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the demographic
survey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure52andlistedinTable55.
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5.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution
The time distributions for each of the mobilization activities presented herein must be
combinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudy
assumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbe
completedbeforethecurrenteventcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturnof
acommuter,theworktohometrip(Activity3o4)mustprecedeActivity4o5.
Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itis
necessary to sum the distributions associated with these prior activities. The distribution
summingalgorithmisappliedrepeatedlytoformtherequireddistribution.Asanoutcomeof
this procedure, new time distributions are formed; we assign letter designations to these
intermediatedistributionstodescribetheprocedure.Table56presentsthesummingprocedure
toarriveateachdesignateddistribution.
Table57presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthe
summingprocessiscompleted.
5.4.1 StatisticalOutliers
As already mentioned, some portion of the survey respondents answer dont know to some
questionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebased
upon actual responses. But, it is the nature of surveys that a few numeric responses are
inconsistent with the overall pattern of results. An example would be a case in which for 500
responses, almost all of them estimate less than two hours for a given answer, but 3 say four
hoursand4saysixormorehours.
Theseoutliersmustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbe
droppedfromthesample?
Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternativestoconsider:
1) Some responses with very long times may be valid, but reflect the reality that the
respondent really needs to be classified in a different population subgroup, based upon
accessand/orfunctionalneeds;
2)Otherresponsesmaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,
or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);
3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspartof
theconsiderationofoutliers.
Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobe
consideredoutliers for thecomponentmobilizationactivities, usinga methodthatobjectively
quantifiestheprocess.
Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssinglyor
ingroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnon
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parametric methods to avoid that assumption. The literature cites that limited work has been
donedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.
Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciples
areused:
- 1) It is recognized that the overall trip generation distributions are conservative estimates,
becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withno
overlapofactivities;
- 2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome)
are reviewed for outliers, and then the overall trip generation distributions are created
(seeFigure51,Table56,Table57);
- 3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.,
accessand/orfunctionalneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurpose
istoestimatetripgenerationpatternsforpersonalvehicles;
- 4) Toeliminateoutliers,
a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromthe
responses,
b) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemean
noted,
c) thehistogramofthedataisinspected,and
d) allvaluesgreaterthan3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,taking
special note of whether there are gaps (categories with zero entries) in the
histogramdisplay.
Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowed
tobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.
Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,stepsatodarerepeated.
- 5) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,
viewed as a cumulative distribution, is not a normal distribution. A typical situation that
resultsisshownbelowinFigure53.
- 6) In particular, the cumulative distribution differs from the normal distribution in two key
aspects,bothveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes:
a) Most of the real data is to the left of the normal curve above, indicating that the
networkloadsfasterforthefirst8085%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(and
earlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled;
b) Thelast1015%oftherealdatatailsoffslowerthanthecomparablenormalcurve,
indicatingthatthereissignificanttrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.
Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathat
is used to describe the mobilization activities, not a normal curve fit to the data. One
could consider other distributions, but using the shape of the actual data curve is
unambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures;
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- 7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps16,includingpreserving
thefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.
This is done by using the data sets and distributions under different scenarios (e.g., commuter
returning,nocommuterreturning).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,usingweightingbaseduponthe
probability distributions of each element; Figure 54 presents the combined trip generation
distributionsforeachpopulationgroupconsidered.Thesedistributionsarepresentedonthesame
timescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisaconservativeapproach,
because it makes all activities sequential - travel home from work follows preparation to leave
work,preparationfordeparturefollowsthereturnofthecommuter,andsoforth.Inpractice,itis
reasonablethatsomeoftheseactivitiesaredoneinparallel,atleasttosomeextent-forinstance,
preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhilethecommuterisstillonthe
road.)
The mobilization distribution results are used in their tabular/graphical form as direct inputs to
latercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.
TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationfor
each origin centroid, expressed in the form of histograms. These histograms, which represent
DistributionsA,C,andD,properlydisplacedwithrespecttooneanother,aretabulatedinTable
58(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).
The final time period (15) is 600 minutes long. This time period is added to allow the analysis
network to clear, in the event congestion persists beyond the trip generation period. Note that
therearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod.
5.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGeneration
AsdefinedinNUREG/CR7002,Rev.1,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:
- 1. Sectorscomprisingthe2MileRegionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.
- 2. Sectorscomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelter
inplacewhilethe2MileRegioniscleared.
- 3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2MileRegion,shelteredpeoplefrom2to5milesdownwind
continuepreparationforevacuation.
- 4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5MileRegionareadvisedtobeginevacuating
whenapproximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2MileRegionevacuateacross
the2MileRegionboundary.
- 5. Noncompliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadow
evacuationpercentageof20%.
Assumptions
- 1. TheEPZpopulationinSectorsbeyond5mileswillreactasdoesthepopulationinthe2
to5MileRegion;thatis,theywillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90thpercentile
ETEforthe2MileRegion,withtheexceptionofthe20%noncompliance.
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- 2. ThepopulationintheShadowRegionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingto15miles
radiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstagedevacuationscenarios.
Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithnoshelterdelay.
- 3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthe
limitedshelteringoptionsavailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,onabeach,orat
othervenues.Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwould
provedifficult.
- 4. Employeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutfirstsheltering.
Procedure
- 1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2MileRegionwillbeascomputedbased
upontheresultsofthedemographicsurveyandanalysis.
- 2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedas
follows:
- a. Identifythe90thpercentileevacuationtimefortheSectorscomprisingthe2Mile
Region.Thisvalue,TScen*,isobtainedfromsimulationresults.Itwillbecomethe
timeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetoldtoevacuateforeach
scenario.
- b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:
- i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%
ofthetotaltripsaregenerated(toaccountforshelternoncompliance).
ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeTScen*
iii. FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:
- 1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenonsheltertripgeneration
curve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or
- 2. bysteppingupto100%(ifTScen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)
- c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgeneration
distributionsfordifferentscenarios,however,thatwasnotthecaseforthissite
NUREG/CR7002,Rev.1,usesthestatementapproximately90thpercentileas
thetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.ThevalueofTScen*isabout2:15
(hrs:mins)forallscenariosonaverage(2:45minutesforthespecialevent
scenario)(seeRegionR01inTable71).
- d. Note:Sinceapproximately92percentofthe2MileRegioniscomprisedof
employees,theTScen*valueof2:15isdictatedbythetripgenerationofthese
populationgroupsasopposedtothetripgenerationofthepermanentresidents.
- 3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:
- a. Residentswithreturningcommuters
- b. Residentswithoutreturningcommuters
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Figure55andTable59presentthestagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswith
and without returning commuters and employees. At TScen*, 20 percent of the permanent
resident population (who normally would have completed their mobilization activities for an
unstagedevacuation)advisedtoshelterhasneverthelessdepartedthearea.Thesepeopledo
not comply with the shelter advisory. Also included on the plot are the trip generation
distributionsforthesegroupsasappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.
Since the 90th percentile evacuation time occurs before the end of the trip generation time,
aftertheshelteredregionisadvisedtoevacuate,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisesto
meet the balance of the nonstaged trip generation distribution. Following time TScen*, the
balanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.After
TScen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtrip
generationdistribution.
Figure55andTable59providesthetripgenerationhistogramsforstagedevacuation.
5.4.3 TripGenerationforRecreationalAreas
The State of Arizona/Maricopa County Offsite Emergency Response Plan for Palo Verde
GeneratingStation(November2017)establishedthebasicnotificationprocessofnotifyingthe
public when an incident is occurring or has occurred at the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating
Station.Transientswillbenotifiedbysirenalertingsystemsignalsandotheralertingmethods.
MaricopaCountyisresponsibleforactivatingthealterandwarningsysteminthe10mileEPZ.
If siren system fails, telephone, doortodoor contact or loudspeakers mounted on patrol
vehicleswillbeused.
As discussed in Section 2.3, this study assumes a rapidly escalating general emergency. As
indicatedinTable52,thisstudyassumes100%notificationin45minutes.Table58indicates
that all transients will have mobilized within 1 hour 45 minutes. It is assumed that this
timeframe is sufficient time for transients to return to their vehicles or lodging facilities and
begintheirevacuationtrip.
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Table51.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities
EventSequence Activity Distribution
12 ReceiveNotification 1
23 PreparetoLeaveWork 2
2,34 TravelHome 3
2,45 PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate 4
Table52.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic
ElapsedTime Percentof
(Minutes) PopulationNotified
0 0.0%
5 7.1%
10 13.3%
15 26.5%
20 46.9%
25 66.3%
30 86.7%
35 91.8%
40 96.9%
45 100.0%
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 510 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table53.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork
CumulativePercent CumulativePercent
EmployeesLeaving ElapsedTime EmployeesLeaving
ElapsedTime(Minutes) Work (Minutes) Work
0 0.0% 40 88.9%
5 25.5% 45 93.1%
10 41.5% 50 95.4%
15 55.6% 55 96.4%
20 64.7% 60 99.7%
25 67.6% 65 99.8%
30 81.0% 70 99.9%
35 85.6% 75 100.0%
NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesample
wasreducedinsizetoincludeonlythosehouseholdswhorespondedtothisquestion.Theunderlying
assumptionisthatthedistributionofthisactivityfortheDontknowresponders,iftheeventtakes
place,wouldbethesameasthoseresponderswhoprovidedestimates.
Table54.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome
Cumulative Cumulative
ElapsedTime Percent ElapsedTime Percent
(Minutes) ReturningHome (Minutes) ReturningHome
0 0.0% 55 86.5%
5 2.9% 60 93.9%
10 12.5% 65 95.0%
15 21.1% 70 95.6%
20 29.4% 75 96.5%
25 37.4% 80 97.3%
30 47.0% 85 98.2%
35 55.3% 90 99.0%
40 68.7% 95 99.4%
45 77.0% 100 99.7%
50 83.4% 105 100.0%
NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 511 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table55.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoLeaveHome
Cumulative Cumulative
ElapsedTime Percent ElapsedTime Percent
(Minutes) ReturningHome (Minutes) ReturningHome
0 0.0% 135 89.8%
15 3.5% 150 91.4%
30 19.9% 165 91.7%
45 32.3% 180 93.8%
60 53.8% 195 96.2%
75 66.9% 210 97.6%
90 71.5% 225 97.8%
105 72.8% 240 98.7%
120 79.6% 255 100.0%
NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response
Table56.MappingDistributionstoEvents
ApplySummingAlgorithmTo: DistributionObtained EventDefined
Distributions1and2 DistributionA Event3
DistributionsAand3 DistributionB Event4
DistributionsBand4 DistributionC Event5
Distributions1and4 DistributionD Event5
Table57.DescriptionoftheDistributions
Distribution Description
Timedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).Alsoapplies
A to employees who work within the EPZ who live outside, and to Transients
withintheEPZ.
B Timedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).
Timedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghome
C
tobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).
Timedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghome
D
tobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 512 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table58.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnStagedEvacuation
PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod
Residents
Residentswith Without
Time Duration Employees Transients Commuters Commuters
Period (Min) (DistributionA) (DistributionA) (DistributionC) (DistributionD)
1 15 5% 5% 0% 0%
2 15 25% 25% 0% 3%
3 15 33% 33% 0% 9%
4 15 22% 22% 1% 14%
5 15 10% 10% 4% 16%
6 30 5% 5% 16% 26%
7 30 0% 0% 25% 9%
8 30 0% 0% 19% 13%
9 30 0% 0% 14% 3%
10 30 0% 0% 9% 4%
11 30 0% 0% 5% 1%
12 30 0% 0% 3% 2%
13 30 0% 0% 2% 0%
14 30 0% 0% 2% 0%
15 600 0% 0% 0% 0%
NOTE:
x Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure12)usingDistributionsC.
x SpecialeventvehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 513 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table59.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation
PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod1
Time Duration ResidentswithCommuters ResidentsWithoutCommuters
Period (Min) (DistributionC) (DistributionD)
1 15 0% 0%
2 15 0% 1%
3 15 0% 1%
4 15 0% 3%
5 15 1% 3%
6 30 3% 6%
7 30 5% 1%
8 30 56% 75%
9 30 14% 3%
10 30 9% 4%
11 30 5% 1%
12 30 3% 2%
13 30 2% 0%
14 30 2% 0%
15 600 0% 0%
1 Trip Generation for Employees and Transients (see Table 5-8) is the same for Un-Staged and Staged Evacuation.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 514 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
1 2 3 4 5
Residents Households wait 1
for Commuters Households without Residents 1 2 5 Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Residents, Transients 1 2 4 5
Return to residence, away from then evacuate Residence Residents, 1 2 5 Residents at home; Transients at transients evacuate directly Residence (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening2 1 2 3,5
(c) Employees who live outside the EPZ ACTIVITIES EVENTS 1 2 Receive Notification 1. Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2. Aware of situation 2, 3 4 Travel Home 3. Depart work 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate 4. Arrive home
- 5. Depart on evacuation trip Activities Consume Time 1
Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.
2 Applies throughout the year for transients.
Figure51.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 515 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
MobilizationActivities Notification PreparetoLeaveWork TravelHome PrepareHome 100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
PercentofPopulationCompletingMobilizationActivity 0%
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 ElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)
Figure52.TimeDistributionsforEvacuationMobilizationActivities
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 516 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0%
40.0%
CumulativePercentage(%)
30.0%
20.0%
10.0%
0.0%
2.5 7.5 12.5 17.5 22.5 27.5 32.5 37.5 42.5 47.5 52.5 57.5 67.5 82.5 97.5 112.5 CenterofInterval(minutes)
CumulativeData CumulativeNormal
Figure53.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 517 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TripGenerationDistributions Employees/Transients ResidentswithCommuters ResidentswithnoCommuters 100 80 60 40 PercentofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTrip 20 0
0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 ElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)
Figure54.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 518 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
StagedandUnStagedEvacuationTripGeneration Employees/Transients ResidentswithCommuters ResidentswithnoCommuters StagedResidentswithCommuters StagedResidentswithnoCommuters 100 80 60 40 20 PercentofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTrip 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 ElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)
Figure55.ComparisonofStagedandUnStagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 519 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
6 EVACUATIONCASES
AnevacuationcasedefinesacombinationofEvacuationRegionandEvacuationScenario.The
definitionsofRegionandScenarioareasfollows:
Region A grouping of contiguous evacuating Sectors that forms either a keyhole
sectorbasedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedin
responsetoaradiologicalemergency.
Scenario A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season,
andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachofthe
affectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.
Atotalof52RegionsweredefinedwhichencompassallthegroupingsofSectorsconsidered.
TheseRegionsaredefinedinTable61.TheSectorconfigurationsareidentifiedinFigure61.
Each keyhole sectorbased area consists of a central circle centered at the power plant, and
threeadjoiningsectors,eachwithacentralangleof22.5degrees,asperNUREG/CR7002,Rev.
1 guidance. The central sector coincides with the wind direction. These sectors extend to 5
miles fromthe plant (Regions R04through Region R19) orto theEPZboundary(Regions R20
throughR35).RegionsR01,R02andR03representevacuationsofcircularareaswithradiiof2,
5and10miles,respectively.RegionsR36throughR52areidenticaltoRegionsR02,R04through
R19,respectively;however,thosesectorsbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%of
the2MileRegion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.ForRegions,wherethewindisblowingfromthe
east, eastsoutheast or southeast, two sectors on either side of the central sector (5 sectors
total)areconsideredduetotheswirlingeffectofthewindinthemountainrangetothewestof
theplant.
Atotalof12ScenarioswereevaluatedforallRegions.Thus,thereareatotalof52x12=624
evacuationcases.Table62providesadescriptionofallScenarios.
Each combination of region and scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated. The
population group and the vehicle estimates presented in Section 3 and Appendix E are peak
values. These peak values are adjusted depending on the Scenario and Region being
considered,usingScenarioandRegionspecificpercentages;suchthattheaveragepopulationis
considered for each evacuation case. The Scenario percentages are presented in Table 63,
whiletheRegionpercentagesareprovidedinTableH1.Table64presentsthevehiclecounts
for each scenario for an evacuation of Region R03 - the entire EPZ, based on the scenario
percentagesinTable63.ThepercentagespresentedinTable63weredeterminedasfollows:
The number of residents with commuters during the week (when workforce is at its peak) is
equal to 24.48% (round down to 24%), which is the product of 49.1% (the number of
households with at least one commuter - see Figure F6) and 49.86% (the number of
householdswithacommuterthatwouldawaitthereturnofthecommuterpriortoevacuating
-seeFigureF10).Seeassumption3inSection2.3.Itisestimatedforweekendandevening
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 61 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
scenariosthat2%ofthosehouseholdswithreturningcommuterswillhaveacommuteratwork
duringthosetimes.
Employmentisassumedtobeatitspeak(100%)duringthewinter,midweek,middayscenarios.
Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedon
the estimation that 50% of the employees commuting into the EPZ will be on vacation for a
week during the approximate 12 weeks of summer. It is further estimated that those taking
vacation will be uniformly dispersed throughout the summer with approximately 4% of
employeesvacationingeachweek.Itisassumedthatonly10%oftheemployeesareworkingin
theeveningsandduringtheweekends.
Based on the previous study, APS stated that transient activity is estimated to be at its peak
(100%)duringwintereveningsandless(75%)duringwinterdays,40%duringsummerevenings
and 30% during summer days. During an outage at the plant (Scenario 11), most of the
transientattractionsareoccupiedbyoutageworkerswhoarealreadycountedasspecialevent
population.Thus,thetransientpercentageissignificantlyless-10%forthisscenario.
AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable63,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusinga
base of 20% (see assumption 7 in Section 2.2); to include the employees within the Shadow
Region who may choose to evacuate, the voluntary evacuation is multiplied by a scenario specificproportionofemployeestopermanentresidentsintheShadowRegion.Forexample,
usingthevaluesprovidedinTable64forScenario1,theshadowpercentageiscomputedas
follows:
2,312 20% 1 28.1%
1,397 4,315 Onespecialevent-anoutageattheplant-wasconsideredasScenario11.Thus,thespecial
event traffic is 100% evacuated for Scenario 11, and 0% for all other scenarios. As discussed
above,sincemostoftheadditionaloutageworkersstayatthetransientfacilityintheEPZ,the
percentageoftransientswasreducedto10%forthisscenario.
Allschoolsinthestudyarea(includingPaloVerdeElementarySchool)isestimatedthatsummer
school enrollment is approximately 10% of enrollment during the regular school year for
summer,midweek,middayscenarios.Schoolisnotinsessionduringweekendsandevenings,
thusnobuses(nopassengervansatCrossroadsAcademy)forschoolchildrenareneededunder
thosecircumstances.AsdiscussedinSection7,schoolsareinsessionduringthewinterseason,
midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillbeneededunderthosecircumstances.
Transit buses for the transitdependent population are set to 100% for all scenarios as it is
assumedthatthetransitdependentpopulationispresentintheEPZforallscenarios.
Externaltrafficisestimatedtobereducedby60%duringeveningscenariosandis100%forall
otherscenarios.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 62 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table61.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions
RadialRegions Sector 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region Description Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R01 2MileRegion X X R02 5MileRegion X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R03 FullEPZ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Evacuate2MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles Sector WindDirection 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region From: Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R04 S X X X X X R05 SSW X X X X X R06 SW X X X X X R07 WSW X X X X X R08 W X X X X X R09 WNW X X X X X R10 NW X X X X X R11 NNW X X X X X R12 N X X X X X R13 NNE X X X X X R14 NE X X X X X R15 ENE X X X X X R16 E X X X X X X X R17 ESE X X X X X X X R18 SE X X X X X X X R19 SSE X X X X X Sector(s)Evacuate Sector(s)ShelterinPlace
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 63 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Evacuate2MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundary Sector WindDirection 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region From: Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R20 S X X X X X X X X R21 SSW X X X X X X X X R22 SW X X X X X X X X R23 WSW X X X X X X X X R24 W X X X X X X X X R25 WNW X X X X X X X X R26 NW X X X X X X X X R27 NNW X X X X X X X X R28 N X X X X X X X X R29 NNE X X X X X X X X R30 NE X X X X X X X X R31 ENE X X X X X X X X R32 E X X X X X X X X X X X X R33 ESE X X X X X X X X X X X X R34 SE X X X X X X X X X X X X R35 SSE X X X X X X X X StagedEvacuation2MileRegionEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5Miles Sector WindDirection 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region From: Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R36 5MileRegion X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R37 S X X X X X R38 SSW X X X X X R39 SW X X X X X R40 WSW X X X X X R41 W X X X X X R42 WNW X X X X X R43 NW X X X X X R44 NNW X X X X X R45 N X X X X X R46 NNE X X X X X R47 NE X X X X X R48 ENE X X X X X R49 E X X X X X X X R50 ESE X X X X X X X R51 SE X X X X X X X R52 SSE X X X X X Sector(s)Evacuate Sector(s)ShelterinPlace Sector(s)ShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuate
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 64 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table62.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions
Scenarios Season1 DayofWeek TimeofDay Weather Special
1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None
2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None
3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None
4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None
Midweek,
5 Summer Evening Good None
Weekend
6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None
7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None
8 Winter Weekend Midday Good None
9 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None
Midweek,
10 Winter Evening Good None
Weekend
11 Winter Midweek Midday Good SpecialEvent:
OutageatPVNGS
RoadwayImpact:
12 Summer Midweek Midday Good LaneClosureon
I10Eastbound
1 Winter means that school is in session, at normal enrollment levels (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer means that school is in session at summer school enrollment levels (lower than normal enrollment).
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 65 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table63.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios
Households Households
With Without School External
Returning Returning Special Buses/Passenger Transit Through
Scenario Commuters Commuters Employees Transients Shadow Events Vans Buses Traffic
1 24% 76% 96% 30% 28% 0% 10% 100% 100%
2 24% 76% 96% 30% 28% 0% 10% 100% 100%
3 2% 98% 10% 30% 21% 0% 0% 100% 100%
4 2% 98% 10% 30% 21% 0% 0% 100% 100%
5 2% 98% 10% 40% 21% 0% 0% 100% 40%
6 24% 76% 100% 75% 28% 0% 100% 100% 100%
7 24% 76% 100% 75% 28% 0% 100% 100% 100%
8 2% 98% 10% 75% 21% 0% 0% 100% 100%
9 2% 98% 10% 75% 21% 0% 0% 100% 100%
10 2% 98% 10% 100% 21% 0% 0% 100% 40%
11 24% 76% 100% 10% 28% 100% 100% 100% 100%
12 24% 76% 96% 30% 28% 0% 10% 100% 100%
ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters.......HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.
ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters..HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.
Employees.................................................EPZemployeeswholiveoutsidetheEPZ
Transients..................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.
Shadow......................................................ResidentsandemployeesintheShadowRegion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisfor
thevaluesshownisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.
SpecialEvent..............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.
SchoolandTransitBuses............................Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschoolsandtransitdependentpeople(1bus/passengervanisequivalentto2
passengervehicles).
ExternalThroughTraffic.............................TrafficpassingthroughtheEPZoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbybarricades
(onI10)45minutesaftertheevacuationbegins.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 66 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table64.VehicleEstimates2byScenario
Households Households
With Without School External Total
Returning Returning Special Buses/Passenger Transit Through Scenario
Scenario Commuters Commuters Employees Transients Shadow Events Vans3 Buses Traffic Vehicles
1 1,397 4,315 2,312 2 1,959 0 10 12 3,070 13,077
2 1,397 4,315 2,312 2 1,959 0 10 12 3,070 13,077
3 140 5,572 241 2 1,453 0 0 12 3,070 10,490
4 140 5,572 241 2 1,453 0 0 12 3,070 10,490
5 140 5,572 241 3 1,453 0 0 12 1,228 8,649
6 1,397 4,315 2,408 6 1,983 0 102 12 3,070 13,293
7 1,397 4,315 2,408 6 1,983 0 102 12 3,070 13,293
8 140 5,572 241 6 1,453 0 0 12 3,070 10,494
9 140 5,572 241 6 1,453 0 0 12 3,070 10,494
10 140 5,572 241 8 1,453 0 0 12 1,228 8,654
11 1,397 4,315 2,408 1 1,983 1,105 102 12 3,070 14,393
12 1,397 4,315 2,312 2 1,959 0 10 12 3,070 13,077
2 Vehicle estimates are for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) 3 The school bus/passenger vans include the 14 vehicles (7 buses) from Palo Verde Elementary School, as the school evacuates even though the school is outside of the EPZ.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 67 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure61.PVNGSEPZSectors
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 68 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
7 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)
This section presents the ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II System
described in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover 52 Evacuation Regions within the
PVNGSEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)andthe12EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.
TheETEforallEvacuationCasesarepresentedinTable71andTable72.Thesetablespresent
theestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegions
forallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2MileRegioninbothstagedandunstagedregions
arepresentedinTable73andTable74.Table75definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.
The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which are
generatedat5minuteintervals.
7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation
VoluntaryevacueesarepermanentresidentswithintheEPZinSectorsforwhichanAdvisory
toEvacuate(ATE)hasnotbeenissued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate.ShadowEvacuationisthe
voluntaryoutwardmovementofsomepermanentresidentsfromtheShadowRegion(outside
theEPZ)forwhomnoprotectiveactionrecommendationhasbeenissued.Bothvoluntaryand
shadow evacuations are assumed to take place over the same time frame as the evacuation
fromwithintheimpactedEvacuationRegion.
TheETEforthePVNGSEPZaddressestheissueofvoluntaryevacueesinthemannershownin
Figure71.WithintheEPZ,20percentofpermanentresidentslocatedinSectorsoutsideofthe
Evacuation Region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate.
Similarly,itisassumedthat20percentofthosepermanentresidentsintheShadowRegionwill
choosetoleavethearea.
Figure72presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.Thisregionextendsradiallyfrom
the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and 15 miles. The population and
number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using the 2020 U.S.
Census data from the Census Bureau website1 projected to September 2021. As discussed in
Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 11,911 permanent residents reside in the Shadow
Region; 20 percent of them would evacuate. See Table 64 for the number of evacuating
vehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.
TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion(includingexternalexternaltraffic),travelingaway
from the plant location, has the potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the
EvacuationRegion.AllETEcalculationsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.
1 www.census.gov
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 71 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
7.2 StagedEvacuation
AsdefinedinNUREG/CR7002,Rev.1,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:
- 1. Sectorscomprisingthe2MileRegionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.
- 2. Sectorscomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelter
inplacewhilethe2MileRegioniscleared.
- 3. As vehicles evacuate the 2Mile Region, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue
preparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.
- 4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5MileRegionisadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhen
approximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2MileRegionevacuateacrossthe2 MileRegionboundary.
- 5. Noncompliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow
evacuationpercentageof20%.
SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.
7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation
Figure 73 through Figure 77. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours and 55 Minutes after the
AdvisorytoEvacuatillustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestionthatariseforthecasewhenthe
entire EPZ (Region R03) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, midday period
undergoodweatherconditions(Scenario1).
Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F is
definedasfollows(HCM2016):
TheHCMusesLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demand
exceeds capacity) or have reached a point that most users would consider
unsatisfactory, as described by a specified service measure value (or combination of
servicemeasurevalues).However,analystsmaybeinterestedinknowingjusthowbad
theLOSFconditionis,particularlyforplanningapplicationswheredifferentalternatives
may be compared. Several measures are available for describing individually, or in
combination,theseverityofaLOSFcondition:
- Demandtocapacity ratios describe the extent to which demand exceeds
capacityduringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%.).
- DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,
3h).
- SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.They
includemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecific
intersectionapproachesorsystemelementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 72 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedintheseFiguresbyathickredline;all
othersarelightlyindicated.
At30minutesaftertheATE,Figure73displayscongestiononWBaselineRoadcausedbythe
PVNGS employee vehicles evacuating from the major parking lots along W Baseline Road. A
roundabout, constructed on W Baseline Road between S Wintersburg Road and the plants
parkinglots,delaytheplantemployeeevacueesduetothereducedcapacityandspeedofthe
roundabout.Atthistime,30%ofemployeesandtransientshavebeguntheirevacuationtrip,
while only 3% of permanent residents (without commuters) have mobilized. Minimal traffic
congestion (LOS B) exists on S Wintersburg Road and W Salome Highway eastbound as plant
employeesareevacuatingtowardBuckeye,locatedeastoftheplant.Minimaltrafficcongestion
(LOSB)existsonI10eastboundandwestboundasexternaltrafficcontinuesonI10beforethe
Roadblocksareestablished.
At1houraftertheATE,Figure74displaysminimaltoheavylevelsoftrafficcongestion(LOSB,
CandD)withintheEPZ.WBaselineRoad,eastoftheroundabout,attheplantsite,stillexhibits
a LOS F. At this time, approximately 85% of employees have mobilized. Congestion (LOS D)
exists on I10 eastbound, as a large number of vehicles evacuating on I10 eastbound merge
withthetrafficonI10withintheShadowRegion.ThiscongestiononI10propagatesthetraffic
tothesinglelaneonrampandeventuallycausingcongestion(LOSC)atS339thAvenuewhich
then delays vehicles from W Van Buren Street. This delay also causes moderate congestion
(LOSC)onWVanBurenStreet.
At1hourand45minutesaftertheATE,Figure75displayscongestionpersistingonWBaseline
Roadattheplant,includingtheroundaboutwhereplantemployeesfromtheparkinglotsare
evacuating. At this point, all (100%) employees and transients have mobilized and 24% of
permanent residents have begun their evacuation trip. S 339th Avenue is showing increased
congestion (LOS D) due to vehiclesaccessing I10 from a singlelane onramp which acts as a
bottleneckandmeterstheflowoftraffic.Duetothismeteringoftrafficflow,congestionhas
increasedtoLOSFonWVanBurenStreet,asvehiclesaretryingtomakealeftontoS339th
Avenue.
At 2 hours and 15 minutes, Figure 76 displays the plant and the 2Mile Region are clear of
congestion. Moderate levels of traffic congestion (LOS B and C) exist on I10 eastbound, W
Salome Highway and W Baseline Road located east of the plant and within Buckeye. At this
point, approximately 70% of permanent residents have mobilized and 81% have successfully
evacuatedtheEPZ.
At2 hours and55minutesaftertheATE,Figure77. showsthattheEPZandstudyareaare
now clear of congestion. Therefore, any evacuees who depart after this time encounters no
trafficcongestionordelay.Atthistime,approximately90%ofthepopulationhavemobilized
and approximately 92% have successfully evacuated the EPZ. This indicates that the trip
generation plus the time to travel to EPZ boundary (5 hours and 55 minutes) is dictating the
100thpercentileETE.ThelastofthevisiblecongestionislocatedoutsideofthestudyareaonI 10eastboundeastofMillerRoad,whichclears5minuteslaterat3hoursaftertheATE.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 73 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
7.4 EvacuationRates
Evacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure78throughFigure719.Thesefigures
displaytherateatwhichtrafficflowsoutoftheindicatedareasforthecaseofanevacuationof
the full EPZ (Region R03) under the indicated conditions. One figure is presented for each
scenarioconsidered.
As indicated in Figure 78 through Figure 719, there is typically a long "tail" to these
distributionsduetomobilizationandnotcongestion(lowpopulationdemand).Vehiclesbegin
toevacuateanareaslowlyatfirst,aspeoplerespondtotheATEatdifferentrates.Thentraffic
demandbuildsrapidly(slopesofcurvesincrease).Whenthesystembecomescongested,traffic
exitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.As
moreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadyleftthe
EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining
demand.
Thisdeclineinaggregateflowrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythese
curves flattening and gradually becoming horizontal. Ideally, it would be desirable to fully
saturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatallwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandall
willclearatthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeuntil
theendofmobilizationtime-thusminimizingevacuationtime.Inreality,thisidealisgenerally
unattainable reflecting the spatial variation in population density, mobilization rates and in
highwaycapacityovertheEPZ.
7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimateResults
Table 71 through Table 72 present the ETE values for all 52 Evacuation Regions and all 12
EvacuationScenarios.Table73throughTable74presenttheETEvaluesforthe2MileRegion
forbothstagedandunstagedkeyholeregionsdownwindto5miles.Thetablesareorganized
asfollows:
Table Contents
The ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90% of the population within a
71 Region,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStaged
Evacuationscenarios.
The ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100% of the population within a
72 Region,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStaged
Evacuationscenarios.
TheETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90%ofthepopulationwithinthe2 73 Mile Region, to evacuate from the 2Mile Region with both Concurrent and Staged
EvacuationsofadditionalSectorsdownwindinthekeyholeRegion.
TheETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100%ofthepopulationwithinthe2 74 Mile Region, to evacuate from the 2Mile Region with both Concurrent and Staged
EvacuationsofadditionalSectorsdownwindinthekeyholeRegion.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 74 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TheanimationsnapshotsdescribedinSection7.3,reflecttheETEstatisticsfortheconcurrent
(unstaged)evacuationscenariosandregions,whicharedisplayedinFigure73throughFigure
77.ThereisminimaltrafficcongestionwiththeEPZ,whichresultsinETEvalueswhichparallel
mobilizationtime;thisisreflectedintheETEstatistics:
x The2MileRegion(R01)consistsofmostlyplantemployees.Thecongestionwithinthis
region,ismostlybasedontheplantemployeesexitingthesitetoaccessSWintersburg
Road.Assuch,the90thpercentileETEforthisregionisbetween2:05(hr:min)and2:15
for all scenarios (excluding the special event) which mimics the rapidly mobilizing
employees and congestion within PVNGS. As shown in Figure 54, employees fully
mobilize in 1 hours and 45 minutes. The additional 30 minutes is the result of the
congestionaccessingtheroundaboutslightlywestoftheplantparkinglots,asdiscussed
inSection7.3.
x The5MileRegion(R02)ismostlyclearofcongestionexceptforWSalomeHighwayeast
oftheplant.R02hasmorepermanentresidentvehiclesthanR01,whichincreasesthe
mobilizationtime(seeFigure54-mobilizationtimeislongerforpermanentresidents
thanforemployees/transients).Asaresult,the90th percentileETEfortheR02ranges
between2:45and2:50(excludingthespecialevent).
x The 90th percentile ETE for the full EPZ (Region R03) ranges between 2:40 and 2:55
(excluding the roadway impact). This is comparable or 10 minutes shorter (during
weekendmiddayscenarios)whencomparedtoR02.Duringtheweekend,thenumber
ofemployeeswithinthe5MileRegionisless.Assuch,thecongestionduetoemployees
isconsiderablyreducedwithinthe2Mileand5MileRegionallowingR03toreachthe
90thpercentileETEmorequicklythaninR02.
x The100thpercentileETEforallRegionsandforallScenariosparallelmobilizationtime,
as congestion within the EPZ dissipates, so no speed and capacity reductions exist, as
displayedinFigure77.The100thpercentileETErangesfrom5hoursand45minutesto
5hoursand55minutes(mobilizationtimeplus10minutestotraveloutoftheEPZ).
ComparisonofScenarios6and11inTable71indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-anoutageat
theplant-hasasignificantimpactontheETEforthe90thpercentileandnoimpacttothe100th
percentileETE.AsdiscussedinSection3.6,anadditional1,105vehiclesarepresentattheplant
duringanoutage.TheadditionalvehiclesincreasethecongestiononWBaselineRoadwithin
theplantsite,extendingtheETEforthe2MileRegion(R01)by40minutes.Forthosekeyhole
regions with wind from the north, west and southwest, the ETE is largely dictated by plant
employeesandthecongestiononWSalomeHighwayduetotheadditionalvehicles;therefore
the90thpercentileETEfortheseregionsarealsosignificantlyimpactedbytheadditionaloutage
employees(withincreasesofupto40minutes).Evenwiththeadditionalvehiclespresentfor
thespecialevent,trafficcongestionwithintheEPZstillclearsbeforethemobilizationtime.Asa
result,the100thpercentileETEarenotimpactedbythespecialevent.
ComparisonofScenarios1and12inTable71indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-singlelane
eastboundonI10fromtheinterchangewithSWintersburgRoad(Exit98)totheinterchange
with State Highway 85 (Exit 112) - has no impact on the 90th percentile ETE for all Regions
exceptforRegionR03.DuringanevacuationofthefullEPZ,the90thpercentileETEincreasesby
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 75 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
25 minutes. Congestion is visible on I10 eastbound or from roads accessing I10 eastbound,
outsideofthe5MileRegion.Assuch,theclosureofasinglelanereducestheroadwaycapacity,
prolonging traffic congestion and ETE. For all other Regions, the interstate never experiences
sustained traffic congestion (LOS F), as shown in Figure 73 through Figure 77. Congestion
Patternsat2Hoursand55MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,whichmeansithasexcess
capacity to service the evacuating traffic demand. The ramps to access the interstate are
bottlenecks,notthemainlineoftheinterstate.Thereisnoimpacttothe100thpercentileETE,
asthetripgeneration(plusthetraveltimetotheEPZboundary)dictatestheETE.
7.6 StagedEvacuationResults
Table 73 and Table 74 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un staged) and staged evacuation studies. Note that Regions R36 through R52 are the same
geographicareasasRegionsR02,R04throughR19,respectively.ThetimesshowninTable73
andTable74arewhenthe2MileRegionis90%clearand100%clear,respectively.
The objective of a staged evacuation is to show that the ETE for the 2Mile Region can be
significantlyreduced(30minutesor25%,whicheverisless)withoutsignificantlyimpactingthe
regionbetween2milesand5miles.Inallcases,asshowninTable73andTable74,the90th
and 100th percentile ETE for the 2Mile Region is unchanged when a staged evacuation is
implemented for all scenarios. As discussed in Section 7.3 and shown in Figure 73 through
Figure77,thereislittletonocongestionbeyond2milesofthePVNGS.
Todeterminetheeffectofstagedevacuationonresidentsbeyondthe2MileRegion,theETE
forRegionsR02,R04throughR19arecomparedtoR36throughR52,respectively,inTable71
andTable72.AcomparisonofETEbetweenthesesimilarregionsrevealsthatstagingincreases
theETEforthoseinthe2to5mileareabyatmost25minutesforthe90thpercentileandhas
no impact on the 100th percentile. The increase in the 90th percentile ETE is due to the
evacuating vehicles, beyond the 2Mile Region, sheltering and delaying the start of their
evacuation.AsshowninFigure55,stagingtheevacuationcausesasignificantspike(sharp
increase)inmobilization(tripgenerationrate)orevacuatingvehicles.Thisspikeoversaturates
evacuationroutes,whichincreasestrafficcongestionandprolongsETE.
Insummary,stagingevacuationprovidesnobenefitstoevacueeswithinthe2MileRegionand
adverselyimpactsevacueeslocatedbeyondthe2milesfromtheplant.
7.7 GuidanceonUsingETETables
The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRC
guidancecallsforthe90thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosentablemay
thenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:
- 1. IdentifytheapplicableScenario(Step1):
- Season
Summer
Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 76 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
- DayofWeek
Midweek
Weekend
- TimeofDay
Midday
Evening
- WeatherCondition
GoodWeather
Rain
- SpecialEvent-AnOutageatPVNGS
- RoadwayImpact-SingleLaneClosureonI20Eastbound
- EvacuationStaging
No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered
Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsidered
WhiletheseScenariosaredesigned,inaggregate,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,
somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:
- Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenot
explicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.
- The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not
explicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(7)and(9)forrain
apply.
- Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows:
Summerassumespublicschoolisinsessionatsummerschoolenrollmentlevels
(lowerthannormalenrollment).
Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession
atnormalenrollmentlevels.
- Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or
aretravellingto/fromwork.
- 2. WiththedesiredpercentileETEandScenarioidentified,nowidentifytheEvacuationRegion
(Step2):
- Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewind
direction).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcompassorientation:fromS,SSW,
SW,
- Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclear
power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions are
givenbelow:
2Miles(RegionR01)
To5Miles(RegionR02,R04throughR19)
ToEPZboundary(to10Miles)(RegionsR03,R20throughR35)
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 77 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
EnterTable75andidentifytheapplicablegroupofcandidateRegionsbasedon
the distance that the selected Region extends from the plant. Select the
EvacuationRegionidentifierinthatrow,basedontheazimuthdirectionofthe
plume,fromthefirstcolumnoftheTable.
- 3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected. Then, for the Scenario
identifiedinStep1andtheEvacuationRegionidentifiedinStep2,proceedasfollows:
- ThecolumnsofTable71arelabeledwiththeScenarionumbers.Identifytheproper
columnintheselectedTableusingtheScenarionumberdefinedinStep1.
- Identify the row in this table that provides ETE values for the Region identified in
Step2.
- The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the
desiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:Minutes.
Example
ItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:
- Sunday,August10that4:00AM.
- Itisraining.
- Winddirectionisfromthenortheast(NE).
- Windspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea2mileradius
anddownwindto10miles(toEPZboundary).
- The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90th percent of the population
fromwithintheimpactedRegion.
- Astagedevacuationisnotdesired.
Table71isapplicablebecausethe90thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:
- 1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable71,itis
seenthatthereisnomatchforthesedescriptors.However,theclarificationgivenabove
assignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.
- 2. Enter Table 75 and locate the Region described as Evacuate 2Mile Region and
DownwindtoEPZBoundaryforwinddirectionfromtheNEandreadRegionR30inthe
firstcolumnofthatrow.
- 3. Enter Table 71 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 and
RegionR30.Thisdatacellisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR30;itcontainsthe
ETEvalueof2:25.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 78 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table71.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
Entire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZ
R01 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R02 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 3:00 2:45
R03 2:45 2:45 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:45 2:45 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:55 3:10
2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R04 2:35 2:35 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:35 2:35 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:55 2:35
R05 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:55 2:40
R06 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:20
R07 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:15
R08 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:15
R09 2:10 2:10 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:10
R10 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:40 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:40 2:35 2:45 2:10
R11 2:05 2:05 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:05
R12 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R13 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:05
R14 2:05 2:05 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:05
R15 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:05
R16 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:05
R17 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:40 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:40 2:35 2:45 2:10
R18 2:20 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:20
R19 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:25
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 79 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
2MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundary
R20 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:40 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:40 2:45 2:25
R21 2:30 2:30 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:30 2:30 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:30
R22 2:20 2:20 2:25 2:25 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:25 2:25 2:40 2:45 2:20
R23 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:50 2:30
R24 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:55 2:30
R25 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:55 2:25
R26 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:15
R27 2:05 2:05 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:05
R28 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:05
R29 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:05
R30 2:05 2:05 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:05
R31 2:05 2:05 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:10 2:10 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:05
R32 2:10 2:10 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:10
R33 2:05 2:05 1:50 1:50 2:30 2:10 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:30 2:35 2:05
R34 2:15 2:15 2:10 2:10 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:40 2:40 2:15
R35 2:20 2:25 2:20 2:20 2:40 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:40 2:40 2:20
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 710 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
StagedEvacuation-5MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R36 2:55 2:55 3:00 3:00 3:00 2:55 2:55 3:00 3:00 3:00 3:00 2:55
R37 2:50 2:50 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:50 2:50 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:50
R38 2:50 2:50 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:50 2:50 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:50
R39 2:45 2:45 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:45 2:45 2:55 2:55 2:55 2:50 2:45
R40 2:40 2:40 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:35 2:40 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:40
R41 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:30 2:35 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:35
R42 2:25 2:30 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:25
R43 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:25 2:25 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:25
R44 2:05 2:05 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:10 2:10 2:40 2:40 2:40 2:45 2:05
R45 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:05 2:05 2:20 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:05
R46 2:05 2:05 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:10 2:10 2:30 2:30 2:30 2:45 2:05
R47 2:05 2:05 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:05
R48 2:05 2:05 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:05
R49 2:05 2:05 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:35 2:35 2:35 2:45 2:05
R50 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:20 2:20 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:20
R51 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:40 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:45
R52 2:45 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:40 2:45 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:50 2:45
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 711 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table72.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
Entire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZ
R01 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R02 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R03 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R04 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R05 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R06 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R07 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R08 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R09 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R10 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R11 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R12 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R13 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R14 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R15 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R16 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R17 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R18 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R19 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 712 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
2MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundary
R20 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R21 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R22 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R23 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R24 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R25 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R26 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R27 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R28 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R29 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R30 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R31 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R32 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R33 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R34 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
R35 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55 5:55
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 713 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
StagedEvacuation-5MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R36 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R37 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R38 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R39 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R40 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R41 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R42 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R43 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R44 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R45 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R46 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R47 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R48 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R49 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R51 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
R52 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 714 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table73.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2MileRegionwithintheIndicatedRegion
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
UnstagedEvacuation-2MileRegionand5MileRegion
R01 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R02 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R04 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R05 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R06 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R07 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R08 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R09 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R10 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R11 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R12 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R13 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R14 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R16 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R17 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R18 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R19 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 715 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
StagedEvacuation-5MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R36 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R37 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R38 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R39 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R40 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R41 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R42 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R43 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R44 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R45 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R46 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R47 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R48 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R49 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R50 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R51 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
R52 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 716 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table74.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2MileRegionwithintheIndicatedRegion
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
UnstagedEvacuation-2MileRegionand5MileRegion
R01 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R02 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R04 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R05 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R06 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R07 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R08 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R09 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R10 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R11 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R12 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R13 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R14 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R15 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R16 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R17 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R18 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R19 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 717 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer
Midweek Midweek
Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek
Weekend Weekend
Scenario: (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (10) (11) (12)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday
Region Good Good Good Good Good Good Special Roadway
Rain Rain Rain Rain
Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Event Impact
StagedEvacuation-5MileRegion,2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles
R36 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R37 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R38 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R39 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R40 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R41 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R42 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R43 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R44 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R46 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R47 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R48 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R49 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R50 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R51 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
R52 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 718 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table75.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions
RadialRegions Sector 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region Description Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R01 2MileRegion X X R02 5MileRegion X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R03 FullEPZ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Evacuate2MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles Sector WindDirection 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region From: Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R04 S X X X X X R05 SSW X X X X X R06 SW X X X X X R07 WSW X X X X X R08 W X X X X X R09 WNW X X X X X R10 NW X X X X X R11 NNW X X X X X R12 N X X X X X R13 NNE X X X X X R14 NE X X X X X R15 ENE X X X X X R16 E X X X X X X X R17 ESE X X X X X X X R18 SE X X X X X X X R19 SSE X X X X X Sector(s)Evacuate Sector(s)ShelterinPlace
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 719 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Evacuate2MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundary Sector WindDirection 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region From: Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R20 S X X X X X X X X R21 SSW X X X X X X X X R22 SW X X X X X X X X R23 WSW X X X X X X X X R24 W X X X X X X X X R25 WNW X X X X X X X X R26 NW X X X X X X X X R27 NNW X X X X X X X X R28 N X X X X X X X X R29 NNE X X X X X X X X R30 NE X X X X X X X X R31 ENE X X X X X X X X R32 E X X X X X X X X X X X X R33 ESE X X X X X X X X X X X X R34 SE X X X X X X X X X X X X R35 SSE X X X X X X X X StagedEvacuation2MileRegionEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5Miles Sector WindDirection 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region From: Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R36 5MileRegion X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R37 S X X X X X R38 SSW X X X X X R39 SW X X X X X R40 WSW X X X X X R41 W X X X X X R42 WNW X X X X X R43 NW X X X X X R44 NNW X X X X X R45 N X X X X X R46 NNE X X X X X R47 NE X X X X X R48 ENE X X X X X R49 E X X X X X X X R50 ESE X X X X X X X R51 SE X X X X X X X R52 SSE X X X X X Sector(s)Evacuate Sector(s)ShelterinPlace Sector(s)ShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuate
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 720 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure71.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 721 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure72.PaloVerdeShadowRegion
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 722 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure73.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 723 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure74.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 724 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure75.CongestionPatternsat1Hourand45MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 725 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure76.CongestionPatternsat2Hoursand15MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 726 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure77.CongestionPatternsat2Hoursand55MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 727 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
EvacuationTimeEstimates
Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1) 2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ 90% 100%
16 14 12 VehiclesEvacuating 10 8
(Thousands) 6 4
2 0
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(h:mm)
Figure78.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03
EvacuationTimeEstimates
Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2) 2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ 90% 100%
16 14 12 VehiclesEvacuating 10 8
(Thousands) 6 4
2 0
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(h:mm)
Figure79.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 728 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
EvacuationTimeEstimates
Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3) 2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ 90% 100%
12 10 VehiclesEvacuating 8
6 (Thousands) 4 2
0 0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(h:mm)
Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03
EvacuationTimeEstimates
Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4) 2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ 90% 100%
12 10 8
VehiclesEvacuating 6 (Thousands) 4 2
0 0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 2
ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(h:mm)
Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 729 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
EvacuationTimeEstimates
Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather
(Scenario5) 2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ 90% 100%
9 8
7 VehiclesEvacuating 6
5 4
(Thousands) 3 2
1 0
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(h:mm)
Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03
EvacuationTimeEstimates
Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6) 2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ 90% 100%
16 14 12 VehiclesEvacuating 10 8
(Thousands) 6 4
2 0
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(h:mm)
Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR03
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 730 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
EvacuationTimeEstimates
Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7) 2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ 90% 100%
16 14 12 VehiclesEvacuating 10 8
(Thousands) 6 4
2 0
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(h:mm)
Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03
EvacuationTimeEstimates
Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario8) 2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ 90% 100%
12 10 VehiclesEvacuating 8
6 (Thousands) 4 2
0 0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(h:mm)
Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 731 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
EvacuationTimeEstimates
Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9) 2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ 90% 100%
12 10 8
VehiclesEvacuating 6 (Thousands) 4 2
0 0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 2
ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(h:mm)
Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03
EvacuationTimeEstimates
Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather
(Scenario10) 2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ 90% 100%
9 8
7 VehiclesEvacuating 6
5 4
(Thousands) 3 2
1 0
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(h:mm)
Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 732 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
EvacuationTimeEstimates
Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent
(Scenario11) 2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ 90% 100%
16 14 12 VehiclesEvacuating 10 8
(Thousands) 6 4
2 0
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(h:mm)
Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03
EvacuationTimeEstimates
Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact
(Scenario12) 2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ 90% 100%
14 12 VehiclesEvacuating 10 8
(Thousands) 6 4
2 0
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(h:mm)
Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 733 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
8 TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES
Thissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtime
estimates (ETE) for transit vehicles (buses, passenger vans, and paratransit vehicles). The
demandfortransitservicereflectstheneedsofthreepopulationgroups:
x residentswithnovehiclesavailable,
x residentsofspecialfacilitiessuchasschools,and
x accessand/orfunctionalneedspopulation.
These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of
passengercars(pcs).Thepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamis
representedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopcs.
Thisequivalencefactorrepresentsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristics
ofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.
Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.
Specifically:
- Busdriversmustbealerted
- Theymusttraveltothebusdepot
- Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacility
These activities consume time. Based on discussion with the offsite agencies, it is estimated
that bus mobilization time is 10 minutes of the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE) at Crossroads
Academy,ArlingtonSchool,TonopahValleyHighSchoolandRuthFisherSchool,asbusesand
drivers remain at the schools throughout theday. Winters Well ElementarySchool buses will
arrive at the school within 20 minutes extending from the ATE to the time when buses first
arriveattheschooltobeevacuated.
During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is
the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school
prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families. Virtually all studies of
evacuations have concluded that this bonding process of uniting families is universally
prevalent during emergenciesand should be anticipated in the planning process.The current
public information disseminated to residents of the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station
(PVNGS)EPZindicatesthatschoolchildrenwillbeevacuatedtoreceptionandcarecenters(RCC)
priortotheevacuationofthegeneralpublic,andparentsshouldpickschoolchildrenupatthe
RCC.
As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a rapidly escalating event at the plant wherein
evacuation is ordered promptly and no early protective actions have been implemented.
Therefore,childrenareevacuatedtotheRCC.Thisreportprovidesestimatesofbusesunderthe
assumptionthatnochildrenwillbepickedupbytheirparents(inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002, Rev. 1) to present an upper bound estimate of buses required. Picking up children at
school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 81 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent wave to the EPZ to
evacuatethetransitdependentpopulation.
TheprocedureforcomputingtransitdependentETEisto:
- Estimatedemandfortransitservice(discussedinSection3)
- Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions
- EstimateroutetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtotheRCC
8.1 ETEsforTransitDependentPeople
EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if schools are in session at the
time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency. In the event that the
allocationofbusesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesis
somewhatinefficient,orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneed
forsomebusestoreturntotheEPZfromtheRCCaftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,to
completeasecondwaveofprovidingtransportationservicetoevacuees.Forthisreason,the
ETE for the transitdependent population will be calculated for both a singlewave transit
evacuationandfortwowaves.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR03
(the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the
impacted Region and this discussion of a secondwave would likely not apply. A list of the
available transportation resources was provided by the County of Maricopa and is shown in
Table81.Itisassumedthatthereareenoughdriversavailabletomanallresourceslistedin
Table81.
When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the
transitdependentshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbe
dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to
boardthebuseswhentheyarriveatthevariousroutesshowngraphicallyinFigure102.
The ETEs for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather
conditions. Figure 81 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations. The
elapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure81.
Activity:MobilizeDrivers(ABC)
MobilizationtimeistheelapsedtimefromtheATEuntilthetimethebusesarriveattheschool
tobeevacuatedortotheirdesignatedroute.BasedondiscussionswiththeCountyofMaricopa
and discussed above, for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable
indication before the fact, drivers would require 10 minutes to mobilize at the Crossroads
Academy,ArlingtonSchool,TonopahValleyHighSchoolandtheRuthFisherSchoolbecausethe
passengervans/busesanddriversremainonsiteduringtheschoolday.Driverswouldrequire
20 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed and to travel to Winters Well
Elementary School, as buses are not onsite. Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse
weather-20minutes(30minutesforWintersWellElementarySchool)whenraining.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 82 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transitdependent evacuees will be
scheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompleted
theirmobilization.AsshowninFigure54(ResidentswithnoCommuters),90%oftheevacuees
will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 165
minutesaftertheATE.Twogroupsofbuseswillbedispatched.Mobilizationtimeis10minutes
longerinraintoaccountforslowertravelspeedsandreducedroadwaycapacity.
Activity:BoardPassengers(CD)
As discussed in Section 2.4, a loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain) for all school
buses,exceptfortheCrossroadsAcademypassengervans,wheretheloadingtimeis8minutes
(13minutesforrain).
For multiple stops along a pickup route (transitdependent bus routes) estimation of travel
timemustallowforthedelayassociatedwithstoppingandstartingateachpickuppoint.The
time,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,a,expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,
v, expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final
speedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:
2 ,
WhereB=Dwelltimetoservicepassengers.Thetotaldistance,sinfeet,travelledduringthe
deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service
passengers,but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over thedistance, s,
wouldbe:s/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.,pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:
Assigningreasonableestimates:
- B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,to
boardperstop
- v=25mph=37ft/sec
- a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerate
Then,P1minuteperstop.Allowing30minutespickuptimeperbusrunimplies30stopsper
run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain;
resultingin40minutesofpickuptimeperbus.
Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(DE)
The transportation resources available were provided by Maricopa County. Table 81
summarizestheavailablecapacityoftransportationresourcesandthetransportationresource
capacity needed to evacuate schools, transitdependent population, and access and/or
functional needs (discussed below in Section 8.2). These numbers indicate there arent
sufficient resources available to evacuate all the schools, transitdependent population, and
accessand/orfunctionalneedspopulationinasinglewave.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 83 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
EvacuationofSchools
The buses servicing Arlington Elementary School, Tonopah Valley High School, Ruth Fisher
School and Palo Verde Elementary School are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 25
minutes(35minutesforWintersWellElementarySchoolbusesand18minutesforCrossroads
Academy passenger vans) after the ATE - a 10minute mobilization time (20 minutes for
WintersWellElementarySchoolbuses)plusa15minuteloadingtime(8minutesforCrossroads
Academypassengervans)-ingoodweather.
The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most
likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the
appropriateRCC.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromthe
schooltotheEPZboundary.Eachbusrouteisgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittento
theDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVcomputestheroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeed
for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in
Section10inTable102(refertothemapsofthelinknodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfor
nodelocations).DataprovidedbyDYNEVduringtheappropriatetimeframedependingonthe
mobilization and loading times (i.e., 18 to 35 minutes after the ATE for good weather) were
usedtocomputetheaveragespeedforeachroute,asfollows:
60 .
1 .
. 60 .
1 .
Theaveragespeedcomputed(usingthismethodology)forthebusesservicingtheEPZisshown
inTable82andTable83forschoolevacuation,andinTable84andTable85forthetransit dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was
computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ
boundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.ThetraveltimefromtheEPZboundaryto
theRCCwascomputedassuminganaveragespeedof65mphand60mph(10%less)forgood
weather and rain, respectively. Speeds were reduced in Table 82, Table 83, Table 84 and
Table85to65mph(60mphforrain-10%decrease)forthosecalculatedbusspeedswhich
exceed65mph,astheschoolbusspeedlimitforstateroutesinArizonais65mph.
Table82(goodweather)andTable83(rain)presenttheETEs(roundeduptothenearest5
minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:
- 1. TheelapsedtimefromtheATEuntilthebusexitstheEPZ;and
- 2. TheelapsedtimeuntilthebusreachestheSchoolRCC.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 84 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with
Activities ABC, CD, and DE (For example: 10 min. + 15 + 13 = 0:40 for Ruth Fisher
ElementarySchool,withgoodweather).TheaveragesinglewaveETE(40minutes),forschools,
issignificantlyless(2hoursand5minutes)thanthe90thpercentileETEforevacuationofthe
generalpopulationintheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underwinter,midweek,midday,withgood
weather(Scenario6)conditionsandwillnotimpactprotectiveactiondecisionmaking.
The evacuation time to the School RCC is determined by adding the time associated with
ActivityEF(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevacuaonme.
AsshowninTable81,thereisashortfallofschoolbusesforevacuationofchildreninasingle
wave, if the entire EPZ is evacuated at once (a highly unlikely event) at Ruth Fisher Middle
School, Tonopah Valley High School and Winters Well Elementary School. As these three
schools use the same bus transportation resources, the following representative ETE is
provided to estimate the additional time needed for a secondwave evacuation of these
schools.
The travel time from the RCC back to the EPZ boundary and then back to the school was
computedassuminganaveragespeedof65mph(goodweather)and60mph(rain)asbuses
willbetravelingcountertoevacuatingtraffic.Timesanddistancesarebasedonaveragesfor
RuthFisherMiddleSchool,TonopahValleyHighSchoolandWintersWellElementarySchoolin
theEPZforgoodweather:
- a. SchoolbusesarriveattheRCC:1:00onaverage(theaverageETAofRuthFisherMiddle
School,TonopahValleyHighSchoolandWintersWellElementarySchool(1:00+1:00+
0:55)/3,seeTable82)
- b. Busunloadstudents(5minutes)anddrivertakes10minuterest:15minutes.
- c. Busreturnstoschools:25minutes(averagedistancefromEPZboundarytoRCC15.5
miles plus the average distance to EPZ boundary 12.0 miles traveling at 65 mph in
goodweather)
- d. LoadingTime:15minutes
- e. Buscompletesecondwaveofservicealongroute:14minutes(averagedistancetoEPZ
boundary12.0miles-atnetworkwideaveragespeedat1:55of53mph)
- f. Bus exits EPZ at time: 1:00 + 0:15 + 0:25 + 0:15 + 0:14 = 2:10 (rounded to nearest 5
minutes)aftertheATE.
Given the average singlewave ETE for schools is 0:55 (see Table 82); a secondwave would
requireanadditionalhourand15minutes,onaverage.TheaveragesecondwaveETE(2hours
and 5 minutes), of Ruth Fisher Middle School, Tonopah Valley High School and Winters Well
ElementarySchoolisconsiderablyless(40minutes)thanthe90thpercentileETEforevacuation
ofthegeneralpopulationintheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underwinter,midweek,midday,with
good weather (Scenario 6) conditions and also will not impact protective action decision
making.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 85 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
EvacuationofTransitDependentPopulation
Discussions with the County of Maricopa stated no buses are available for the transit dependentgeneralpopulation,assuch,fixedbusrouteswouldnotbeusedfortheevacuation
oftransitdependentpeoplewithinthePVNGSEPZ.KLDdevelopedasetoftransitroutesthat
wouldencompassthemostpopulatedareasoftheEPZ.Busesservicingthetransitdependent
evacueeswillfirsttravelalongtheseroutes,thenproceedoutoftheEPZ.Buseswilltravelalong
the major routes in the EPZ as described in Table 101 and shown graphically in Figure 102.
TheseroutesareonlyusedinthisstudyforthepurposeofcomputingETE.Nopreestablished
transitdependentbusroutesexistinthecountyemergencyplans.OnpagePP7oftheStateof
Arizona-MaricopaCountyOffsiteEmergencyResponsePlans,itstatesthatMaricopaCounty
Department of Emergency Management will respond to the requests for transportation from
thoseresidentsofthePlumeExposurePathwayEPZ.
As discussed in Section 3.6, four (4) buses are needed to service the transitdependent
population, as shown in Table 101, which ensures there is one bus service for each Sector
withintheEPZ.
Table 84 and Table 85 present the transitdependent population ETEs for each bus route
calculated using the above procedures (as discussed under School Evacuation) for good
weatherandrain,respectively.
As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30
individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaverageofoneminuteofdelayassociatedwith
eachstop.Longerpickuptimesof40minutesareusedforrain.
The travel distance along the respective pickup routes within the EPZ is estimated using the
UNITES software. Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds
computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school
evacuation.
For example, the ETE for the Transit Dependent Bus Route 4, servicing the 1Mile Ring, and
Sectors A, Q and R, is computed as 165 + 21 + 30 = 3:40 for good weather (rounded up to
nearest5minutes).Here,21minutesisthetimetotravel22.5milesat63.3mph,theaverage
speedoutputbythemodelforthisroutestartingat165minutes.TheaveragesinglewaveETE
(3hoursand35minutes)fortransitdependentpeopleis50minuteslongerthanthegeneral
population90thpercentileETE(2hoursand45minutes)fortheevacuationoftheentireEPZfor
Scenario6conditionsandcouldimpacttheprotectiveactiondecisionmaking.
The ETE for a secondwave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of
availablebusesorbusdrivers,aspreviouslydiscussedandshowninTable81.
Activity:TraveltoRCCs(EF)
ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytotheRCCsaremeasuredusingGISsoftwarealongthe
mostlikelyroutefromtheEPZexitpointtotheRCC.TheRCCsaremappedinFigure103.Fora
singlewave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 86 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Assumed bus speeds of 65 mph and 60 mph for good weather and rain, respectively, will be
appliedforthisactivityforbusesservicingschoolsandthetransitdependentpopulation.
Forasecondwaveevacuation,theETEforbusesmustbeconsideredseparately,sinceitcould
exceedtheETEforthegeneralpopulation.
Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(FG)
Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.
Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(GC)
The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a secondwave evacuation of transit dependentevacueeswillbethosethathavealreadyevacuatedtransitdependentpeoplewho
mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transitdependent people departs the bus, and the
bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit dependentevacueesalongtheroute.ThetraveltimebacktotheEPZisequaltothetraveltime
totheRCC.BustraveltimeswithintheEPZarecomputedusingaveragespeedscomputedby
DYNEV,usingtheaforementionedmethodologythatwasusedforschoolevacuation.
ThesecondwaveETEfortheTransitDependentBusRoute4iscomputedasfollowsforgood
weather:
- BusarrivesatRCCat4:08ingoodweather(3:40toexitEPZ+28minutestraveltime
toRCC).
- Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10minute rest: 15
minutes.
- Bus returns to EPZ and completes secondwave of evacuation along the route: 28
minutes (bus returns to EPZ boundary, equal to travel time to RCC) + 21 minutes
(busreturnstostartoftheroutetravelingcountertoevacuationtraffic,22.5miles
@65mph)+21minutes(buscompletessecondwaveservicealongroute,22.5miles
@61.4mph-averagespeedalongrouteoutputbyDYNEVat5hoursand5minutes
whenthebusbeginssecondwaveevacuationalongroute))=71minutes
- Buscompletespickupsalongroute:30minutes.
- BusexitsEPZattime3:40+0:28+0:15+1:18+0:30=6:05(roundedtonearest5
minutes)aftertheATE.
The ETE for the completion of the secondwave for all transitdependent bus routes are
providedinTable84andTable85.
TheaverageETE(6hours)forasecondwaveevacuationoftransitdependentpeopleis3hours
and 15 minutes longer than the ETE for the general population at the 90th percentile for an
evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under winter, midweek, midday, good weather
conditions(Scenario6)andcouldimpacttheprotectiveactiondecisionmaking.
TherelocationoftransitdependentevacueesfromtheRCCstocongregatecarecenters,ifthe
countydecidestodoso,isnotconsideredinthisstudy.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 87 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
8.2 ETEsforAccessand/orFunctionalNeedsPopulation
Theaccessand/orfunctionalneedspopulationregisteredwithintheEPZwasprovidedbythe
CountyofMaricopaandisfurtherdiscussedinSection3.9.Table86summarizestheETEfor
accessand/orfunctionalneedspeople.Thetableiscategorizedbytypeofvehiclerequiredand
thenbrokendownbyweathercondition.Thetabletakesintoconsiderationthedeploymentof
multiplevehicles(notfilledtocapacity)toreducethenumberofstopspervehicle.Duetothe
limitations on driving for access and/or functional needs persons, it is assumed they will be
picked up from their homes. Furthermore, it is conservatively assumed that households that
haveambulatoryandwheelchairboundandbedriddenpeoplehouseholdsarespaced3miles
apart. Paratransit vehicles and bus speeds approximate 40 mph between households in good
weather(10%slowerinrain).Amobilizationtimeof165minuteswereused(175minutesfor
rain). Loading time of 1 minute per person are assumed for ambulatory and 5 minutes per
person for wheelchair bound and bedridden people. The last household is assumed to be 5
milesfromtheEPZboundary,andthenetworkwideaveragespeed,cappedat65mph(60mph
forrain),afterthelastpickupisusedtocomputetraveltime.
ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at first household, travel to
subsequent households, loading time at subsequent households, and travel time to EPZ
boundary.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.
Forexample,assumingnomorethanoneaccessand/orfunctionalneedspersonperhousehold
implies that 284 ambulatory households need to be serviced. While only 10 buses for
ambulatory patients are needed from a capacity perspective, if 21 buses are deployed to
servicethesehouseholds,theneachwouldrequireabout14stops.Thefollowingoutlinesthe
ETEcalculationsforabus:
- 1. Assume 21 buses are deployed, each with about 14 stops, to service a total of 284
households.
- 2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:
- a. Busesarriveatthefirstpickuplocation:165minutes
- b. Loadhouseholdmembersatfirstpickup:1minute
- c. Traveltosubsequentpickuplocations:13@5minutes(3miles@40mph)=59
minutes
- d. Loadhouseholdmembersatsubsequentpickuplocations:13@1minute=13
minutes
- e. TraveltoEPZboundary:5minutes(5miles@58.5mph-blendednetworkwide
averagespeedat238minutes).
ETE:165+1+59+13+5=4:05(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)
TheaverageETE(4hoursand5minutes)ofalltheaccessand/orfunctionalneedspopulation
withintheEPZislonger(2hoursand30minutes)thanthe90thpercentileETEforevacuationof
the general population in the entire EPZ (Region R03) under winter, midweek, midday, with
good weather (Scenario 6) conditions. Therefore, the evacuation of access and/or functional
needspopulationwillimpacttheprotectiveactiondecisionmaking.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 88 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
A secondwave ETE, for the access and/or functional needs population needing buses and
paratransitvehicles,isneeded.ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculationsifasecondwaveETE
iscomputedforbusesasfollowsforgoodweather:
- a. SchoolbusesarriveatRCC(averagevaluefromTable82):50minutes.
- b. UnloadstudentsatRCC(5minutes)anddrivertakesa10minuterest:15minutes
- c. Travel time back to EPZ: 13 minutes (average time of Travel Time from EPZ bdry to
RCCfromTable82andTable83)
- d. Bustravelstoallstops:14stops@5minutes=63minutes
- e. Loadingtimeatallstops:14stops@1minutes=14minutes
- f. TraveltimetoEPZboundary::6minutes(5miles@53.7mph-blendednetworkwide
averagespeedat240minutes)
ETE:0:50+0:15+0:13+0:63+0:14+0:06=2:45(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)
The average ETE (3 hours) for a secondwave evacuation of access and/or functional needs
populationwithintheEPZis15minuteslongerthantheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe
90th percentile for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) under winter, midweek,
midday, with good weather conditions (Scenario 6) and could impact the protective action
decisionmaking.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 89 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table81.SummaryofTransportationResource
Transportation Passenger Paratransit
Resource Buses Vans Vehicles
ResourcesAvailable
RuthFisherElementary/TonopahValley
30 0 0
HighSchool/WintersWellElementarySchool
ArlingtonElementarySchool 7 0 0
PaloVerdeElementarySchool1 8 0 0
CrossroadsAcademy 0 2 0
TOTAL: 45 2 0
ResourcesNeeded
Schools(Table38): 50 1 0
TransitDependentPopulation(Table312): 4 0 0
Accessand/orFunctionalNeedsPopulation
10 0 7
(Table39):
TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS: 64 1 7
1 Palo Verde Elementary School is located in the Shadow Region. MCDEM indicated these schools would evacuate in the event of an emergency at the PVNGS.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 810 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table82.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather
Travel TravelTime
Driver Loading Dist.To Average Timeto Dist.EPZ fromEPZ ETAto
Mobilization Time EPZBdry Speed EPZBdry ETE Bdryto BdrytoRCC RCC
School Time(min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) RCC(mi.) (min) (hr:min)
MARICOPACOUNTYSCHOOLS
CrossroadsAcademy 10 8 12.4 62.7 12 0:30 19.0 18 0:50
RuthFisherElementarySchool 10 15 13.2 61.2 13 0:40 19.0 18 1:00
TonopahValleyHighSchool 10 15 13.2 61.2 13 0:40 19.0 18 1:00
WintersWellElementarySchool 20 15 9.8 61.3 10 0:45 8.4 8 0:55
ArlingtonElementarySchool 10 15 8.4 50.9 10 0:35 8.4 8 0:45
PaloVerdeElementarySchool2 10 15 0.0 0.0 0 0:25 10.8 10 0:35
MaximumforEPZ: 0:45 Maximum: 1:00
AverageforEPZ: 0:40 Average: 0:50
Table83.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain
Travel TravelTime
Driver Loading Dist.To Average Timeto Dist.EPZ fromEPZ ETAto
Mobilization Time EPZBdry Speed EPZBdry ETE Bdryto BdrytoRCC RCC
School Time(min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) RCC(mi.) (min) (hr:min)
MARICOPACOUNTYSCHOOLS
CrossroadsAcademy 20 13 12.4 54.8 14 0:50 19.0 19 1:10
RuthFisherElementarySchool 20 20 13.2 54.5 14 0:55 19.0 19 1:15
TonopahValleyHighSchool 20 20 13.2 54.5 14 0:55 19.0 19 1:15
WintersWellElementarySchool 30 20 9.8 48.2 12 1:05 8.4 8 1:15
ArlingtonElementarySchool 20 20 8.4 45.4 11 0:55 8.4 8 1:05
PaloVerdeElementarySchool2 20 20 0.0 0.0 0 0:40 10.8 11 0:55
MaximumforEPZ: 1:05 Maximum: 1:15
AverageforEPZ: 1:00 Average: 1:10
2 Palo Verde Elementary School is located in the Shadow Region. MCDEM indicated that this school would evacuate in the event of an emergency at the PVNGS.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 811 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table84.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather
OneWave SecondWave
Route Travel Route
Number Route Travel Pickup Distance Timeto Driver Travel Pickup
Route of Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE toRCC RCC Unload Rest Time Time ETE
Number Buses (min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) (miles) (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min)
4 1 165 22.5 63.3 21 30 3:40 29.8 28 5 10 71 30 6:05
5 12 165 12.4 61.0 12 30 3:30 36.7 34 5 10 58 30 5:50
6 1 165 13.8 53.0 16 30 3:35 38.0 35 5 10 63 30 6:00
MaximumETE: 3:40 MaximumETE: 6:05
AverageETE: 3:35 AverageETE: 6:00
Table85.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain
OneWave SecondWave
Route Travel Route
Route Travel Pickup Distance Timeto Driver Travel Pickup
Route Number Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE toRCC RCC Unload Rest Time Time ETE
Number ofBuses (min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) (miles) (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min)
4 1 175 22.5 58.1 23 40 4:00 29.8 30 5 10 73 40 6:40
5 12 175 12.4 56.1 13 40 3:50 36.7 37 5 10 61 40 6:25
6 1 175 13.8 48.6 17 40 3:55 38.0 38 5 10 67 40 6:35
MaximumETE: 4:00 MaximumETE: 6:40
AverageETE: 3:55 AverageETE: 6:35
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 812 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Table86.Accessand/orFunctionalNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates
Travel
TotalLoading Timeto
People Loading Travelto Timeat EPZ
Requiring Vehicles Weather Mobilization Timeat1st Subsequent Subsequent Boundary ETE
VehicleType Vehicle deployed Stops Conditions Time(min) Stop(min) Stops(min) Stops(min) (min) (hr:min)
Good 165 59 5 4:05
Buses 284 21 14 1 13
Rain 175 65 5 4:20
Paratransit Good 165 41 5 4:25
70 7 10 5 45
Vehicles Rain 175 45 5 4:35
MaximumETE: 4:35
AverageETE: 4:25
Table87.Accessand/orFunctionalNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates-SecondWaveforBusesandParatransitVehicles
Total
Loading Travel
One Travel Travel Timeat Timeto
People Wave Unload Driver TimeBack toAll All EPZ
Requiring Vehicles Weather ETE3 Passengers Rest toEPZ4 Stops Stops Boundary ETE
VehicleType Vehicle deployed Stops Conditions (hr:min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min)
Good 0:50 5 10 13 63 6 2:45
Buses 284 21 14 14
Rain 1:10 5 10 14 70 6 3:10
Paratransit Good 0:50 5 10 13 45 6 2:25
70 7 10 10
Vehicles Rain 1:10 5 10 14 50 6 2:50
MaximumETE: 3:10
AverageETE: 3:00
3 Average ETA to the RCC from Table 8-2 and Table 8-3, respectively.
4 Average of travel time from EPZ boundary to the RCC from Table 8-2 and Table 8-3, respectively.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 813 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
(SubsequentWave)
A B C D E F G Time
Event
A AdvisorytoEvacuate
B BusDispatchedfromDepot
C BusArrivesatFacility/PickupRoute
D BusDepartsforReceptionandCareCenter
E BusExitsRegion
F BusArrivesatReceptionandCareCenter
G BusAvailableforSecondWaveEvacuationService
Activity
AoB DriverMobilization
BoC TraveltoFacilityortoPickupRoute
CoD PassengersBoardtheBus
DoE BusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundary
EoF BusTravelsTowardsReceptionandCareCenterOutsidetheEPZ
FoG PassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreak
Figure81.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 814 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
9 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY
This section discusses the suggested Traffic Management Plan (TMP) that is designed to
expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement the TMP
include:
- Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic
guides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers).
- The Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal
HighwayAdministration(FHWA)oftheU.S.D.O.T.providesguidanceforTrafficControl
Devicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.Allstateandmost
county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available online:
http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.govwhichprovidesaccesstotheofficialPDFversion.
- A written plan that defines all Traffic Control Points and Access Control Points
(Roadblocks)locations,providesnecessarydetailsandisdocumentedinaformatthatis
readilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.
Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:
- 1. FacilitateevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.
- 2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakes
themsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflow
ofotherevacuees.
Theterms"facilitate"and"discourage"areemployedratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"to
indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function. There are always
legitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.
Forexample:
- Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamily
memberspriortoevacuating.
- Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.
- Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenteringtheareabeingevacuatedtoperform
animportantemergencyservice.
The implementation of a TMP must also be flexible enough for the application of sound
judgmentbythetrafficguide.
TheTMPistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:
- 1. The PVNGS 10Mile Emergency Planning Zone with Roadblocks Figure, provided by
Maricopa County and discussed in the Maricopa County Emergency Operations Plan,
serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR7002, Rev. 1.
Initially,theETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingRoadblock
locations as being controlled by actuated signals. The Roadblocks were then removed
exceptforthoselocatedonI10(tostopexternalexternaltraffic),asdiscussedbelow.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 91 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Appendix K identifies the number of intersections that were ultimately modeled as
Roadblocks.
- 2. Evacuation simulations were run using DYNEV II with the TMP and then run again
incorporating only the Roadblocks on I10, to predict traffic congestion during
evacuation.TheevacuationsimulationsusingRoadblocksonI10iswhatisdiscussedin
Section7.3andasseeninFigures73through77.Thesesimulationshelptoidentifythe
best routing and critical intersections that experience pronounced congestion during
evacuation. Any critical intersections that would benefit from traffic or access control
whicharenotalreadyidentifiedonI10areexamined.NoadditionalRoadblockswere
identifiedaspartofthisstudy.
- 3. PrioritizationofRoadblocks(SeeAppendixGformoredetail.):
- a. Application of traffic and access control at some Roadblocks will have a more
pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other
Roadblocks.Forexample,Roadblockscontrollingtrafficoriginatingfromareasin
close proximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on
minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those located far from the
power plant. Key locations for manual traffic control (MTC) was analyzed and
theirimpacttoETEwasquantified,asperNUREG/CR7002,Rev.1.
- b. ThisanalysisdeterminedthattheTMPwerenotbeneficialduringtheevacuation
andsimulationswererunusingonlytheRoadblocksonI10.
Appendix G documents the existing TMP and list of priority Roadblocks using the process
enumeratedabove.
9.1 Assumptions
TheETEcalculationsdocumentedinSections7and8assumethattheTMPisnotimplemented
(exceptonI10)duringevacuation.
TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatallexternalexternaltripsareinterdictedand
divertedafter45minuteshaveelapsedfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE).
All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are
assumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningRoadblocks.
StudyAssumptions1,2,and3inSection2.5discusstheRoadblocksoperations.
9.2 AdditionalConsiderations
TheuseofIntelligentTransportationSystems(ITS)technologiescanreducethemanpowerand
equipmentneeds,whilestillfacilitatingtheevacuationprocess.DynamicMessageSigns(DMS)
can also be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic
conditions,routeselection,andreceptioncenterinformation.TheDMSplacedoutsideofthe
EPZwillwarnmotoriststoavoidusingroutesthatmayconflictwiththeflowofevacueesaway
fromthepowerplant.HighwayAdvisoryRadio(HAR)canbeusedtobroadcastinformationto
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 92 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
evacueesduringegressthroughtheirvehiclesstereosystems.AutomatedTravelerInformation
Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information. Internet websites can
providetrafficandevacuationrouteinformationbeforetheevacueebeginstheirtrip,whilethe
onboardnavigationsystems(GPSunits),andsmartphonescanbeusedtoprovideinformation
duringtheevacuationtrip.
These areonly severalexamples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process.
Consideration should be given that ITS technologies can be used to facilitate the evacuation
process,andanyadditionalsignageplacedshouldconsiderevacuationneeds.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 93 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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10 EVACUATIONROUTESANDRECEPTIONCENTERS
10.1 EvacuationRoutes
Evacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:
- Routing from Sectors being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and
thenceoutoftheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ).
- Routingoftransitdependentevacuees(schoolsandresidents,employeesortransients
whodonotownorhaveaccesstoaprivatevehicle)fromtheEPZboundarytoreception
andcarecenters.
EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsuchawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.
This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model, routing traffic away from the location of the
plant to the extent practical. The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic to
balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible. See
Appendices B through D for further discussion. The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are
presented in Figure 101. These routes will be used by the general population evacuating in
private vehicles and by the transitdependent population evacuating in buses. Transit dependentevacueeswillberoutedtoreceptioncenters.Generalpopulationmayevacuatetoa
reception center or some alternate destination (e.g., lodging facility, relatives home,
campground)outsidetheEPZ.
The routing of transitdependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception and care
centersisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswhere
theseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.ThethreebusroutesshowngraphicallyinFigure102and
described in Table 101 were designed by KLD, as no preestablished transitdependent bus
routes exist within the county emergency plans. The routes were designed to service the
transitdependentpopulationwithineachSector.Thisdoesnotimplythattheseexactroutes
would be used in an emergency. It is assumed that residents will walk to the nearest major
evacuationrouteandflagdownapassingbus,andthattheycanarriveattheroadwaywithin
the165minutebusmobilizationtime(goodweather).Theseroutesareonlyusedinthisstudy
forthepurposeofcomputingETE.
Schools were routed along the most likely path from the school being evacuated to the EPZ
boundary,travelingtowardthenearestreceptionandcarecenter.
ThespecifiedbusroutesforallthetransitdependentpopulationaredocumentedinTable102
(refer to the maps of the linknode analysis network in Appendix K for node locations). This
studydoesnotconsiderthetransportofevacueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecare
centersifthecountydoesmakethedecisiontorelocateevacuees.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 101 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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10.2 ReceptionandCareCenters
AccordingtocurrentpublicinformationissuedtoEPZresidents,evacueeslivingwithintheEPZ
will be directed to the appropriate reception and care center location. The current public
information lists the reception and care centers. It is assumed that the transitdependent
evacueeswillberoutedtothenearestreceptionandcarecenters.Figure103presentsamap
showingthereceptionandcarecentersforevacuees.Table103presentsalistofthereception
andcarecentersforeachevacuatingschoolintheEPZ.Itisassumedthatallschoolevacuees
will be taken to the closest reception and care center and will be subsequently picked up by
parentsorguardians.Noschoolevacueeswillbepickedupbyparentspriortothearrivalofthe
buses.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 102 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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Table101.SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutes
No.of Length
Route Buses RouteDescription Sector(s)Serviced (mi.)
4 1 TransitDependentBusRoute2 1MileRing,A,QandR 22.5
5 2 TransitDependentBusRoute1 B,C,D,EandF 12.4
6 1 TransitDependentBusRoute3 G,H,J,K,L,M,NandP 13.8
Total: 4
Table102.BusRouteDescriptions
BusRoute
Number Description NodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary
1 ArlingtonElementarySchool 147,79,82,80,130,45,46,47,187,151
RuthFisherElementary
2 86,153,126,87,134,67,11,12
School/TonopahValleyHighSchool
3 WintersWellElementarySchool 149,148,113,67,11,12
4 TransitDependentBusRoute2 25,26,189,193,27,38,30,117,136,7,8,9,10,11,12
TransitDependentBusRoute1/
5 25,186,185,184,116,83,44,157,45,46,47,187,151
CrossroadsAcademy
6 TransitDependentBusRoute3 238,100,174,81,147,79,82,80,130,45,46,47,187,151
Table103.SchoolReceptionandCareCenters
School ReceptionandCareCenter
ArlingtonElementarySchool BuckeyeYoungkerHighSchool
PaloVerdeElementarySchool1 BuckeyeYoungkerHighSchool
TonopahValleyHighSchool
GoodyearDesertEdgeHighSchool
RuthFisherMiddleSchool
WintersWellElementarySchool BuckeyeYoungkerHighSchool
CrossroadsAcademy GoodyearDesertEdgeHighSchool
1 Palo Verde Elementary School is outside of the study area. Maricopa County Radiological Emergency Preparedness Plan indicates that this school would evacuate in the event of an emergency at the PVNGS.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 103 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure101.EvacuationRoute
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 104 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure102.TransitDependentBusRoutes
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 105 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Figure103.ReceptionandCareCenters
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation 106 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
APPENDIXA
GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms
A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS
TableA1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms
Term Definition
AnalysisNetwork Agraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysical
roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and
nodes.
Link A network link represents a specific, onedirectional section of
roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes,
topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages,
servicerate,freeflowspeed)characteristics.
MeasuresofEffectiveness Statisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.
Node A network node generally represents an intersection of network
links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of
servicetimetoeachapproachlink.
Origin A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow
Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles
perhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotravelto
theirrespectivedestinations.
PrevailingRoadwayand Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g.,
TrafficConditions composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions
(weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).
ServiceRate Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn
maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the
prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or
vehiclesperhour(vph).
ServiceVolume Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of
roadway in one direction during a specified time period with
operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service
VolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).
ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).
SignalCycleLength Thetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.
Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.
SignalInterval Asinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationis
expressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequenceof
signalintervals,usuallygreen,yellow,red.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation A1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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Term Definition
SignalPhase A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a
particular combination of traffic movements on selected
approachestotheintersection.Thephasedurationisexpressedin
seconds.
Traffic(Trip)Assignment Aprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayasto
satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel
from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination)
and to optimize some stated objective or combination of
objectives. In general, the objective is stated in terms of
minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be
expressedintermsoftraveltime.
TrafficDensity Thenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysection
of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per
mile(vpm).
Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofalltrafficgenerated
at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table,
whichisamatrixoforigindestinationtrafficvolumes.
TrafficSimulation Acomputermodeldesignedtoreplicatetherealworldoperation
of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics
describing traffic performance. These statistics are called
MeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE).
TrafficVolume Thenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinone
direction,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,
trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.
TravelMode Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air
travelmodes.
TripTableorOrigin A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number
DestinationMatrix oftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtime
period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its
specifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesper
hour(vph)orinvehicles.
TurningCapacity Thecapacityassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstream
whichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatan
intersection.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation A2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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APPENDIXB
DTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel
B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL
Thisappendixdescribestheintegrateddynamictripassignmentanddistributionmodelnamed
DTRAD (Dynamic TRaffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in
analyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpathchoiceprinciplesandisoneof
themodelsoftheDYNEVIISystem.TheDTRADmoduleimplementspathbasedDynamicTraffic
Assignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOriginDestination(OD)tripsareassignedtoroutes
overthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.
To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity
information,thetimevaryingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,
a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the Emergency Planning
Zone(EPZ)forselectedorigins.DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,trip
destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic
generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to
minimizeevacueetravelcost.
B.1 OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModel
Theunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledin
anevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialrisk
as rapidly as possible by selecting the best routes. The model is designed to identify these
bestroutesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsand
routesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacuee
behavior.
Foreachorigin,asetofcandidatedestinationnodesisselectedbythesoftwarelogicandby
theanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccess
majorhighways.Thespecificdestinationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersand
the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This
determinationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip
cost,asdiscussedlater.
Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthe
network(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.
TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimulationmodel,executesasuccession
of sessions wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for
theconditionsthatexistatthattime.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation B1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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B.2 InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRAD
The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general
direction away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed to
support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (OD matrix) over time from
one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a mapping from the specified
geometricnetwork(linknodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,
to a path network that represents the vehicle [turn] movements. DTRAD computations are
performedonthepathnetwork:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthegeometricnetwork.
B.2.1 DTRADDescription
DTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.
When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available
betweentriporiginsanddestinations.Theproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagating
them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEV II using
macroscopic traffic simulation modeling. Traffic assignment deals with computing the
distributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenODdemandsandisamodelofthe
route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road
networkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,timevaryingsignaltimingorreduced
road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion. To consider these time
dependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.
The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the
specificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutes
throughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbythesimulation
model).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetimedependent
conditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofDTRADinclude:
x Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsome
alsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral
efficientroutesforeachODpairfromwhichthedriverschoose.
x Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeofdiscretechoice
modeling.Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdrivers
that choose each route is computed. The most prevalent model for discrete choice
modeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of PathSizeLogit model (PSL). PSL
overcomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatingan
additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the
randomutilityexpression.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation B2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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x DTRAD executes the traffic assignment (TA) algorithm on an abstract network
representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link nodeanalysisnetwork.Thisexecutioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:the
volumesandtraveltimesontheedgesofthepathnetworkdonotchangesignificantly
fromoneiterationtothenext.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser.
x Travel cost plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear
summationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralized
costforalink,a,isexpressedas
,
Where isthegeneralizedcostforlinkand, ,and,arecostcoefficientsforlink
travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively. Distance and supplemental
costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a
dynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel
computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationto
constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next
simulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.This
way,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyreassignedbasedontimedependentconditions.
TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodels
isdepictedinFigureB1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession
(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopBinthe
figure.
x The supplemental cost is based on the survival distribution (a variation of the
exponential distribution). The Inverse Survival Function is a cost term in DTRAD to
representthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:
sa=ln(p),0pl;0
p=
dn=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplant
d0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk
=Scalingfactor
Thevalueofdo =10miles,theouterdistanceoftheEPZ.Notethatthesupplemental
cost,sa, oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)thepower
plant.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation B3 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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B.2.2 NetworkEquilibrium
In1952,JohnWardropwrote:
Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchaway
thatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.
TheabovestatementdescribestheUserEquilibriumdefinition,alsocalledtheSelfishDriver
Equilibrium.Itisahypothesisthatrepresentsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeas
drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective
costs.Ithasbeenfoundthatthisequilibriumobjectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealized
bymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,
commuters).Effectively,suchdriverslearnwhichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,
thetrafficenvironmentsettlesdowntoanearequilibriumstate.
Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was
not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar
situation, who respond in a flexible manner to realtime information (either broadcast or
observed)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation B4 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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StartofnextDTRADSession
A
Set T0 Clocktime.
ArchiveSystemStateat T0
DefinelatestLinkTurn
Percentages
ExecuteSimulationModelfrom
B time, T0 to T1 (burntime)
ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEat
time, T1
ExecuteDTRADiteration;
GetnewTurnPercentages
RetrieveSystemStateat T0 ;
ApplynewLinkTurnPercents
DTRADiterationconverges?
No Yes
Nextiteration Simulatefrom T0 to T2
(DTAsessionduration)
SetClockto T2
B A
FigureB1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterface
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation B5 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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APPENDIXC
DYNEVTrafficSimulationModel
C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL
This appendix describes the DYNEV traffic simulation model. The DYNEV traffic simulation
modelisamacroscopicmodelthatdescribestheoperationsoftrafficflowintermsofaggregate
variables: vehicles, flow rate, mean speed, volume, density, queue length, on each link, for
each turn movement, during each Time Interval (simulation time step). The model generates
trips from sources and from Entry Links and introduces them onto the analysis network at
ratesspecifiedbytheanalystbasedonthemobilizationtimedistributions.Themodelsimulates
the movements of all vehicles on all network links over time until the network is empty. At
intervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)suchasthoselistedinTableC1.
ModelFeaturesInclude:
x Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterative
procedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepfor
thepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles.
x Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedto
estimatethenumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturn
movement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel.
x Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queued
andmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehicle
spillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredand
quantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineach
timestepofthesimulation.Thereisnoverticalstackingofqueuesonalink.
x Any link can accommodate source flow from zones via side streets and parking
facilities that are not explicitly represented. This flow represents the evacuating trips
thataregeneratedatthesource.
x Therelationbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacity
ismonitoredeverytimestepforeverylinkandforeveryturnmovement.Iftheavailable
storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the simulator
applies a metering rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream feeders and
sourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacityisnotexceeded.
x A path network that represents the specified traffic movements from each network
linkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel.
x AtwowayinterfacewithDTRAD:(1)provideslinktraveltimes;(2)receivesdatathat
translatesintolinkturnpercentages.
x ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN
x CalculatesETEstatistics
All traffic simulation models are dataintensive. Table C2 outlines the necessary input data
elements.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway
environment is represented as a network. The unidirectional links of the network represent
roadway sections: rural, multilane, urban streets or freeways. The nodes of the network
generallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges
(e.g.,alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).
Figure C1 is an example of a small network representation. The freeway is defined by the
sequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExit
links,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithin
agridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregradeseparated.
C.1 Methodology
C.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagram
It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flowdensity and speeddensity
relationships. Rather than settling for a triangular representation, a more realistic
representation that includes a capacity drop, (IR)Qmax, at the critical density when flow
conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This
representation,showninFigureC2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, k ,andthen
alinearreductioninspeedintherange, k k k 45 vpm, thedensityatcapacity.Inthe
flowdensityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange, k k 95 vpm
whichroughlyrepresentsthestopandgoconditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflow
rate, Q , corresponding to k , is approximated at 0.7 RQ . A linear relationship
between k and k completesthediagramshowninFigureC2.TableC3isaglossaryofterms.
The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration
values for each link are: (1) Free speed, v ; (2) Capacity, Q ; (3) Critical density, k 45 vpm ; (4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity, k . Then, v , k k
. Setting k k k , then Q RQ k for 0 k k 50 . Itcanbe
shownthatQ 0.98 0.0056 k RQ for k k k , where k 50 and k 175.
C.1.2 TheSimulationModel
Thesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceofunitproblems.Eachunitproblemcomputesthe
movementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval
(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC3isarepresentationofthe
unitprobleminthetimedistanceplane.TableC3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedin
thefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.
The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit
problemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementserviced
oneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationofthe
evacuation.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Given Q , M , L , TI , E , LN , GC , h , L , R , L , E , M
Compute O , Q , M
Define O O O O ; E E E
- 1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity, k ,theR-factor,
R andenteringtraffic, E , usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.
Foreachsubsequentsweep, s 1 , calculate E P O S where P , O arethe
relevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)over
thisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.
Setiterationcounter,n=0, k k , and E E .
- 2. Calculate v k such that k 130 usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthe
fundamentaldiagram.
Q TI G Calculate Cap C LN , in vehicles, this value may be reduced
3600 due to metering
Set R 1.0 if GC 1 or if k k ; Set R 0.9 only if GC 1 and k k
L Calculate queue length, L Q
LN
- 3. Calculate t TI . If t 0 , set t E O 0 ; Else, E E .
- 4. Then E E E ; t TI t
- 5. If Q Cap , then
O Cap , O O 0
If t 0 , then
Q Q M E Cap
Else
Q Q Cap
Endif
Calculate Q and M using Algorithm A below
- 6. Else Q Cap
O Q , RCap Cap O
- 7. If M RCap , then
- 8. If t 0 , O M , O min RCap M , 0
Q E O
If Q 0 , then
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C3 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Calculate Q , M with Algorithm A
Else
Q 0 , M E
End if
Else t 0
O M and O 0
M M O E ; Q 0
End if
9. Else M
O 0
If t 0 , then
O RCap , Q M O E
Calculate Q and M using Algorithm A
10. Else t 0
M M
If M ,
O RCap
Q M O
Apply Algorithm A to calculate Q and M
Else
O M
M M O E and Q 0
End if
Endif
Endif
Endif
- 11. Calculate a new estimate of average density, k k 2 k k ,
where k =densityatthebeginningoftheTI
k =densityattheendoftheTI
k =densityatthemidpointoftheTI
Allvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.
If k k and n N
where N max number of iterations, and is a convergence criterion, then
- 12. set n n 1 , and return to step 2 to perform iteration, n, using k k .
Endif
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C4 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Computation of unit problem is now complete. Check for excessive inflow causing
spillback.
- 13. If Q M , then
The number of excess vehicles that cause spillback is: SB Q M ,
where W is the width of the upstream intersection. To prevent spillback, meter the
outflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbythe
amount,SB.Thatis,set
SB M1 0 , where M is the metering factor over all movements.
E S Thismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobe
appliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.
AlgorithmA
This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can
join a standing or discharging queue. For the case
Qb v Q shown, Q Cap, with t 0 and a queue of
Q Qe length, Q ,formedbythatportionof M and E that
reaches the stopbar within the TI, but could not
v discharge due to inadequate capacity. That is, Q Mb M E . Thisqueuelength, Q Q M v L3 E Cap canbeextendedto Q bytrafficentering
the approach during the current TI, traveling at
t1 t3 speed, v, and reaching the rear of the queue within
T theTI.Aportionoftheenteringvehicles, E E ,
will likely join the queue. This analysis calculates
t , Q and M fortheinputvaluesofL,TI,v,E,t,L ,LN,Q .
When t 0 and Q Cap:
L L Define: L Q . From the sketch, L vTI t t L Q E .
LN LN Substituting E E yields: vt E L vTI t L .Recognizingthat
thefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefor t toobtain:
L t such that 0 t TI t
E L v
TI LN
Ifthedenominator,v 0, set t TI t .
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C5 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
t t t Then, Q Q E , M E 1
TI TI The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its
inclusion,here.
C.1.3 LaneAssignment
Theunitproblemissolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessaryto
calculateavalue, LN , ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecified
by,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,then
theproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainunchannelizedlanesonalink,thenan
analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement
specificvirtuallanes,LNx.
C.2 Implementation
C.2.1 ComputationalProcedure
ThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigure
C4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link
independentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststep
istoexecuteanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedso
thatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthe
samenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibleto
guaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.
Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulation
is completed. Within each time step, the processing performs a series of sweeps over all
network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire
network.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthe
contextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSarealldefinedforeachlinksuch
thattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutbound
links.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.
Withineachsweep,processingsolvestheunitproblemforeachturnmovementoneachlink.
WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm
allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,if
any,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltiming
needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the
capabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsresponding
tothetimevaryingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.
Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischarge
fromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkatthe
end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles: Q and M . The
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C6 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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procedure considers each movement separately (multipiping). After all network links are
processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E;
meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythenospillbackcondition.
The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the
followingsweep.
Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandSsettledownfor
allnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyundersaturatedorinfoursweeps
in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link
usesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,
the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn
movementforoutputpurposes.Itthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthe
valuesof Q and M forthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesof Q and M attheend
ofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntil
the end of the run. Note that there is no spacediscretization other than the specification of
networklinks.
C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)
The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general
directionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedto
identifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandonthe
expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically
varyingtheTripTable(ODmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.
FigureB1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEV
IIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRADsessions;eachsuchsession
computestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,
T , T , specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfrom
each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the
networkwide cost function. The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn
percentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.
As indicated in Figure B1, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it
with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the
DTRAD cost function. These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time,
T T , which lies within the session duration, T , T . This burn time, T T , is
selectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechange
in network operations over this burn time using the latest set of link turn percentages
computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the
simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the Dynamic Traffic
Assignment(DTA)model,returnstotheorigintime, T ,andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheend
oftheDTRADsessiondurationattime, T .AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedand
thewholeprocessrepeatsuntiltheendoftheDYNEVIIrun.
AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C7 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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TableC1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII
Measure Units AppliesTo
VehiclesDischarged Vehicles Link,Network,ExitLink
Speed Miles/Hours(mph) Link,Network
Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link
LevelofService LOS Link
Content Vehicles Network
TravelTime Vehiclehours Network
EvacuatedVehicles Vehicles Network,ExitLink
TripTravelTime Vehicleminutes/trip Network
CapacityUtilization Percent ExitLink
Attraction Percentoftotalevacuatingvehicles ExitLink
MaxQueue Vehicles Node,Approach
TimeofMaxQueue Hours:minutes Node,Approach
Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel
RouteStatistics Route
Time(min)
MeanTravelTime Minutes EvacuationTrips;Network
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C8 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TableC2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel
HIGHWAYNETWORK
x Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers
x Linklengths
x Numberoflanes(upto9)andchannelization
x Turnbays(1to3lanes)
x Destination(exit)nodes
x Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink
x NodeCoordinates(X,Y)
x NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)
GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES
x Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriod
TRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS
x Trafficsignals:linkspecific,turnmovementspecific
x Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated
x Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals)
x StopandYieldsigns
x Rightturnonred(RTOR)
x Routediversionspecifications
x Turnrestrictions
x Lanecontrol(e.g.,laneclosure,movementspecific)
DRIVERSANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS
x Drivers(vehiclespecific)responsemechanisms:freeflowspeed,dischargeheadway
x Busroutedesignation.
DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT
x Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional)
x DurationofDTAsessions
x Durationofsimulationburntime
x Desirednumberofdestinationnodesperorigin
INCIDENTS
x IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes
x IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C9 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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TableC3.Glossary
Themaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischarge
Cap
fromalinkwithinatimeinterval.
The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the
E
timeinterval.Theportion,ETI,canreachthestopbarwithintheTI.
The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn
G/C
movementonalink.
h Themeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.
k Densityinvehiclesperlanepermile.
TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,ona
k
link.
L Thelengthofthelinkinfeet.
Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofa
L , L
timeinterval.
Thenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoservicea
LN
particularmovementonalink.
L Themeaneffectivelengthofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.
M Meteringfactor(Multiplier):1.
The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are
M , M movingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumed
tobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.
Thetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfroma
O
linkoveratimeinterval.
The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged
fromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningof
O , O , O
the TI; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the TI;
vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.
The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link that
P
executesaparticularturnmovement,x.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C10 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe
Q , Q
[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.
Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovement
Q intheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateof
linkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM2016.
R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the capacity
drop when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower
capacityatthatpointisequalto RQ .
RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement
afterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressed
asvehicles.
S Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).
t Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirst t seconds
of a time interval, can reach the stopbar (in the absence of a queue down stream)withinthesametimeinterval.
TI Thetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.
v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of
movingvehiclesonthelink.
v Themeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithin
theTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.
W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link
lengthwhichextendsfromstopbartostopbarandtheblocklength.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C11 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
8011 8009 2 3 8104 8107 6 5 8008 8010 8 9 10 8007 8012 12 11 8006 8005 13 14 8014 15 25 8004 16 24 8024 17 8003 23 22 21 20 8002 Entry,ExitNodesare 19 numbered8xxx
8001
FigureC1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C12 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Volume, vph Capacity Drop Qmax R Qmax Qs Density, vpm Flow Regimes Speed, mph Free Forced vf R vc Density, vpm kf kc kj ks
FigureC2.FundamentalDiagrams
Distance
Qb vQ Qe v
v L
Mb Me Up
t1 t2 Time
E1 E2 TI
FigureC3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht1>0
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C13 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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SequenceNetworkLinks
NextTimestep,ofduration,TI
A
Nextsweep;DefineE,M,Sforall
B
Links
C NextLink
D NextTurnMovement,x
Getlanes,LNx
ServiceRate,Sx ;G/Cx
GetinputstoUnitProblem:
Q b , Mb ,E
SolveUnitProblem:Q e , Me , O
No D
LastMovement?
Yes
No
LastLink? C
Yes
No B
LastSweep?
Yes
Calc.,storeallLinkMOE
SetupnextTI:
No A
LastTime-step?
Yes
DONE
FigureC4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC3)
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation C14 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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APPENDIXD
DetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure
D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE
This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time
Estimates(ETE).TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigure
D1.Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelement
intheflowdiagram.
Step1
The first activity was to verify the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) boundary information and
create a geographical information system (GIS) base map. The base map extends beyond the
ShadowRegionwhichextends15miles(radially)fromthepowerplantlocation.Thebasemap
incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ
boundary.
Step2
The 2021 EPZ residential population was obtained from the Maricopa County Department of
Emergency Management (MCDEM). The 2020 Census block population information was
obtainedinGISformatandwasextrapolatedto2021usingthecompoundgrowthformulain
ordertoestimatethepermanentresidentpopulationwithintheShadowRegionandtodefine
the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study
area.EmployeeandtransientdatawereobtainedfromMCDEMandemergencymanagement
personnelatAPS.InformationconcerningschoolswithintheEPZwasobtainedfromMaricopa
County.
Step3
A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and county local emergency
managers, onsite and offsite APS personnel). The purpose of the kickoff meeting was to
present an overview of the work effort, identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data
requirements for the study. Specific requests for information were presented to, state and
county emergencyofficials and APS utility managers. Unique featuresof the study area were
discussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETEstudy.
Step4
Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodetermine
any changes to the roadway network since the previous study. This survey included
considerationofthegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanes
on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of
traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal
timings for pretimed traffic signals (if any exist within the study area), and to make the
necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity. Roadway
characteristicswerealsoverifiedusingaerialimagery.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation D1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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Step5
A demographic survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household
dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuationrelated demographic information of
theEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincluding
theaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredto
performpreevacuationmobilizationactivities.
Step6
A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a linknode analysis
network,wasupdatedusingthemostrecentUNITESsoftware(seeSection1.3)developedby
KLD.Oncetheupdatedgeometryofthenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibrated
usingtheinformationgatheredduringtheroadsurvey(Step4)andinformationobtainedfrom
aerialimagery.Estimatesofhighwaycapacityforeachlinkandotherlinkspecificcharacteristics
wereintroducedtothenetworkdescription.Trafficsignaltimingswereinputaccordingly.The
linknode analysis network was imported into a GIS map. The 2021 permanent resident
populationdata(Step2)wereoverlaidinthemap,andorigincentroidswheretripswouldbe
generatedduringtheevacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.
Step7
TheEPZissubdividedinto145Sectors.Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupings
ofSectorsthatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,)weredeveloped.
The need for evacuation can occur over a range of timeofday, dayofweek, seasonal and
weatherrelated conditions. Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation
demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week,
timeofyear,andweatherconditions.
Step8
TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentand
distributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototype
evacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.
Step9
After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype
evacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriate
NRC guidelines. DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the
completenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarningand
error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input
streamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.
The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial
evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or
replacethesemodelassigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthe
topology of the analysis highway network. The model produces link and networkwide
measuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation D2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
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Step10
The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined. The
examinationincludesobservingtheanimatedgraphics(usingtheEVANsoftware-seeSection
1.3)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.Thisisalaborintensiveactivity,requiring
thedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossessthenecessarypracticalexperienceto
interprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofanyproblemsreflectedintheresults.
Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent
locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this
congestion.Thiscausecantakemanyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftrip
generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the
physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two
conclusions:
x Theresultsaresatisfactory;or
x Theinputstreammustbemodifiedaccordingly.
Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebased
upontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresults
of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are
satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise,
proceedtoStep11.
Step11
There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems. These
treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation
destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce
significantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionsso
as to provide improved service for one or more movements, adding minor routes (which are
pavedandtraversable)thatwerenotpreviouslymodelledbutmayassistinanevacuationand
increase the available roadway network capacity, or in prescribing specific treatments for
channelizingtheflowsoastoexpeditethemovementoftrafficalongmajorroadwaysystems.
Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case
input stream. All treatments are designed to improve the representation of evacuation
behavior.
Step12
As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the
modificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnsto
Step9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation D3 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Step13
Evacuationoftransitdependentevacueesandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuation
analysis. Fixed routing for transit buses, school buses, ambulatory buses, and paratransit
vehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEVIIgenerates
routespecific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit
dependentandspecialfacilitypopulationgroups.
Step14
The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuser
interface. For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation
distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a
customizedcasespecificdataset.
Step15
AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultsare
available, quality control procedures are used to assure the results are consistent, dynamic
routingisreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottlenecksareaddressedproperly.
Step16
Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special
facilityroutesareusedtocomputeETEfortransitdependentpermanentresidents,schoolsand
accessand/orfunctionalneedspopulation.
Step17
The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed. Traffic management plans are
analyzed,andtrafficcontrolpointsareprioritized,ifapplicable.Additionalanalysisisconducted
toidentifythesensitivityoftheETEtochangesinsomebaseevacuationconditionsandmodel
assumptions.Theresultsarethendocumented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR7002,Rev.1.
Step18
Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklist(seeAppendix
N)iscompleted.Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthe
checklist.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation D4 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
A Step1 Step10 CreateGISBaseMap ExaminePrototypeEvacuationCaseusingEVAN
and
DYNEVIIOutput Step2 GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDatafor ResultsSatisfactory StudyArea Step11 Step3 ModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelop
ConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholders TrafficControlTreatments Step4 Step12 FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyArea ModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototype
EvacuationCase Step5 ConductandAnalyzeDemographicSurveyand
DevelopTripGenerationCharacteristics B
Step13 Step6 EstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuation
CreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork RoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase
Step14 Step7 GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAll
EvacuationCases DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenarios Step15 Step8 ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAll
CreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStream EvacuationCases Step16 Step9 UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoCompute
ETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes B ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase Step17 Documentation A Step18 CompleteETECriteriaChecklist
FigureD1.FlowDiagramofActivities
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation D5 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
APPENDIXE
FacilityData
E. FACILITYDATA
The following tables list population information, as of November 2021, for special facilities,
transientfacilitiesandmajoremployersthatarelocatedwithinthePVNGSEPZ.Specialfacilities
aredefinedasschools,medicalfacilitiesandcorrectionalfacilities.Note,howeverthatthere
arenomedicalfacilitiesorcorrectionalfacilitiesinthePVNGSEPZ.Thus,specialfacilitieswithin
the EPZ consist of schools only. Employment data is summarized in the table for major
employers.Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetableforlodgingfacilities.
Thelocationofthefacilityisdefinedbyitsstraightlinedistance(miles)anddirection(magnetic
bearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant.Mapsofeachschool,majoremployer,andlodging
facilityarealsoprovided.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation E1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TableE1.SchoolswithintheStudyArea
Distance Dire Enroll
Sector (miles) ction SchoolName StreetAddress Municipality ment
MARICOPACOUNTY,AZ
A3 2.6 N CrossroadsAcademy 38013WSalomeHwy Tonopah 15
A8 7.2 N TonopahValleyHighSchool 38201WIndianSchoolRd Tonopah 810
A8 7.3 N RuthFisherMiddleSchool 36201WIndianSchoolRd Tonopah 731
C5 4.7 NE WintersWellElementarySchool 35220WBuckeyeRd Tonopah 460
F4 3.3 ESE ArlingtonElementarySchool 9410S355thAve Arlington 280
S.R. 11.1 ESE PaloVerdeElementarySchool1 10700SPaloVerdeRd PaloVerde 450
MaricopaCountySubtotal: 2,746
EPZTOTAL: 2,746
TableE2.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ
Employee
%Employees Employees Vehicles
Distance Dire Employees Commuting Commuting Commuting
Sector (miles) ction FacilityName StreetAddress Municipality (MaxShift) intotheEPZ intotheEPZ intotheEPZ
MARICOPACOUNTY,AZ
PVNGS PVNGS 5801SWintersburgRd Tonopah 2,611 95% 2,480 2,102
D7 6.7 ENE Hickman'sFamilyFarms2 1909S331stAve Tonopah 96 59% 57 48
E6 6.0 E Hickman'sFamilyFarms2,3 32911WardRd Buckeye 239 92% 221 23
H4 3.7 SSE SunStreams2 11801S363rdAve Arlington 250 97% 243 206
R9 8.8 NNW Hickman'sFamilyFarms2 41717WIndianSchoolRd Tonopah 112 30% 34 29
MaricopaCountySubtotal: 3,308 3,035 2,408
EPZTOTAL: 3,308 3,035 2,408
1 According to Maricopa County Emergency Plans, Palo Verde Elementary School would evacuate even though it is located in the Shadow Region.
2 Hickmans Family Farms has multiple locations in the EPZ with a total of 447 employees per single shift.
3 According to Hickmans Family Farms, there are 210 inmates from the Arizona State Prison currently working at Hickmans Family Farm. Based on the data provided, these inmates are included in the 239 employees (Max Shift) at 32911 Ward Rd. Of the remaining 29 employees (239 - 210 = 29), approximately 11 people reside outside of the EPZ. Assuming a capacity of 30 people per bus, 7 buses (14 vehicles) will be needed to transport the 210 inmates plus 9 vehicles for the remaining 11 employees (11 non-inmate employees ÷ 1.18 employee vehicle occupancy rate), which results in a total of 23 employee vehicles.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation E2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TableE3.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ
Distance Dire
Sector (miles) ction FacilityName StreetAddress Municipality Transients Vehicles
MARICOPACOUNTY,AZ
R9 8.2 NNW SaguaroMineralWellsMotel 3847N411thAve Tonopah 23 8
MaricopaCountySubtotal: 23 8
EPZTOTAL: 23 8
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation E3 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureE1.Schools,LodgingFacilitiesandMajorEmployerswithintheStudyArea
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation E4 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
APPENDIXF
DemographicSurvey
F. DEMOGRAPHICSURVEY
F.1 Introduction
The development of evacuation time estimates (ETEs) for the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating
Station(PVNGS)EmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)requirestheidentificationoftravelpatterns,car
ownershipandhouseholdsizeofthepopulationwithintheEPZ.Demographicinformationcan
be obtained from Census data. The use of this data has several limitations when applied to
emergencyplanning.First,theCensusdatadonotencompasstherangeofinformationneeded
toidentifythetimerequiredforpreliminaryactivities(mobilization)thatmustbeundertaken
priortoevacuatingthearea.Secondly,Censusdatadonotcontainattitudinalresponsesneeded
fromthepopulationoftheEPZandconsequentlymaynotaccuratelyrepresenttheanticipated
behavioralcharacteristicsoftheevacuatingpopulace.
Theseconcernsareaddressedbyconductingademographicsurveyofarepresentativesample
oftheEPZpopulation.Thesurveyisdesignedtoelicitinformationfromthepublicconcerning
familydemographicsandestimatesofresponsetimestowelldefinedevents.Thedesignofthe
surveyincludesalimitednumberofquestionsoftheformWhatwouldyoudoif?andother
questionsregardingactivitieswithwhichtherespondentisfamiliar(Howlongdoesittakeyou
to?).
F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan
AttachmentApresentsthefinalsurveyinstrumentusedforthedemographicsurvey.Adraftof
theinstrumentwassubmittedtostakeholdersforcomment.Commentswerereceivedandthe
surveyinstrumentwasmodifiedaccordingly,priortoconductingthesurvey.
Following the completion of the instrument, a sampling plan was developed. Since the
demographicsurveydiscussedhereinwasperformedinOctober2020andthe2020Censusdata
hadnotbeenreleased,2010Censusdatawasusedtodevelopthesamplingplan.
Asamplesizeofapproximately370completedsurveyformsyieldsresultswithasamplingerror
of+/-5%atthe95%confidencelevel.ThesamplemustbedrawnfromtheEPZpopulation.Alistof
zipcodesintheEPZwasdevelopedusinggeographicinformationsystem(GIS)software.Thislist
isshowninTableF1.Alongwitheachzipcode,anestimateofthepopulationandnumberof
householdsineachareawasdeterminedbyoverlaying2010CensusdataandtheEPZboundary,
againusingGISsoftware.Theproportionalnumberofdesiredcompletedsurveyinterviewsfor
eachareawasidentified,asshowninTableF1.Notethattheaveragehouseholdsizecomputed
inTableF1wasanestimateforsamplingpurposesandwasnotusedintheETEstudy.
Theresultsofthesurveyexceededthesamplingplan.Atotalof392completedsampleswere
obtainedcorrespondingtoasamplingerrorof+/-4.5%atthe95%confidencelevelbasedonthe
2010Censusdata.TableF1alsoshowsthenumberofsamplesobtainedwithineachzipcode.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation F1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
F.3 SurveyResults
Theresultsofthesurveyfallintotwocategories.First,thehouseholddemographicsofthearea
canbeidentified.Demographicinformationincludessuchfactorsashouseholdsize,automobile
ownership, and automobile availability. The distributions of the time to perform certain pre evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to
developthetripgenerationdistributionsusedintheevacuationmodelingeffort,asdiscussedin
Section5.
AreviewofthesurveyinstrumentrevealsthatseveralquestionshaveaDontknoworDecline
toStateentryforaresponse.Itisacceptedpracticeinconductingsurveysofthistypetoaccept
the answers of a respondent who offers a Dont know or who declines to answer a few
questions. To address the issue of occasional Dont know/declined responses from a large
sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the
underlyingdistributionofthepositiveresponses.Ineffect,theDontknow/declinedresponses
areignoredandthedistributionsarebaseduponthepositivedatathatisacquired.
F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResults
HouseholdSize
FigureF1presentsthedistributionofhouseholdsizewithintheEPZ,basedontheresponsesto
thedemographicsurvey.Theaveragehouseholdcontains2.65people.Accordingtothe2020
Censusdatatheaveragehouseholdsizeis3.15peopleperhousehold,whichis18.9%higherthan
the value obtained from the demographic survey. This falls outside of the sampling error of
+/-4.5%.However,eachyear,MaricopaCountyundertakesapopulationanalysiswithinthePVNGS
EPZ based on electrical hookup information. The data gathered by the county indicates an
averagehouseholdsizeof2.75people.Thedifferencebetweenthecountydataandsurveydata
is3.8%,whichdoesnotexceedthesamplingerrorof4.5%.Itwasdeterminedthatthevalue
obtained from the demographic survey (2.65 people) will be used for this study. The close
agreementbetweentheaveragehouseholdsizeobtainedfromthesurveyandfromthecounty
dataisanindicationofthereliabilityofthesurvey.
AutomobileOwnership
TheaveragenumberofautomobilesavailableperhouseholdintheEPZis2.30.Itshouldbenoted
thatallhouseholdswithintheEPZhaveaccesstoanautomobileaccordingtothedemographic
survey.ThedistributionofautomobileownershipispresentedinFigureF2.FigureF3andFigure
F4presenttheautomobileavailabilitybyhouseholdsize.
Ridesharing
Themajority(72%)ofthehouseholdssurveyedrespondedthattheywouldsharearidewitha
neighbor,relative,orfriendifacarwasnotavailabletothemwhenadvisedtoevacuateinthe
eventofanemergency,asshowninFigureF5.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation F2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Commuters
FigureF6presentsthedistributionofthenumberofcommutersineachhousehold.Commuters
aredefinedashouseholdmemberswhotraveltoworkorcollegeonadailybasis.Thedatashows
anaverageof0.81commutersperhouseholdintheEPZ,andapproximately49.1%ofhouseholds
haveatleastonecommuter.
CommuterTravelModes
FigureF7presentsthemodeoftravelthatcommutersuseonadailybasis.Thevastmajority
(82%)ofcommutersusetheirprivateautomobilestotraveltoworkorcollege.Thedatashows
anaverageof1.18commuterspervehicle,assuming2 peoplepervehicle-onaverage-for
carpools.
ImpactofCOVID19onCommuters
FigureF8presentsthedistributionofthenumberofcommutersineachhouseholdthatwere
temporarilyimpactedbytheCOVID19pandemic.Thedatashowsanaverageof0.54commuters
per household were affected by the COVID19 pandemic. Approximately 69% of households
indicated that no commuter in their household had a work and/or school commute that was
temporarilyimpactedbytheCOVID19pandemic.Approximately31%ofhouseholdsindicated
someoneintheirhouseholdwasimpacted.
F.3.2 EvacuationResponse
Questions were asked to gauge the populations response to an emergency. These are now
discussed:
Howmanyvehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?Theresponseisshown
inFigureF9.Onaverage,evacuatinghouseholdswoulduse1.56vehicles.
Wouldyourfamilyawaitthereturnofotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuatingthearea?
Of the survey participants who responded, 49.86% said they would await the return ofother
familymembersbeforeevacuatingand50.14%indicatedthattheywouldnotawaitthereturnof
otherfamilymembers,asshowninFigureF10.
Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutoshelterinplaceinanemergencybecauseyouarenotinthe
areaofrisk.Wouldyou?Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationregardingcompliance
withinstructionstoshelterinplace.Theresults,asshowninFigureF11,indicatethat90%of
householdswhoareadvisedtoshelterinplacewoulddoso;theremaining10%wouldchoose
toevacuatethearea.
NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20%ofhouseholdswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,
asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR7002,Rev.1.Thus,thedataobtainedaboveisconsiderably
lowerthanthefederalguidancerecommendation.Asensitivitystudywasconductedtoestimate
theimpactofshadowevacuationnoncomplianceofshelteradvisoryonETE-seeAppendixM.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation F3 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutoshelterinplaceinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelater
whilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou?Thisquestionisdesigned
toelicitinformationspecificallyrelatedtothepossibilityofastagedevacuation.Thatis,askinga
populationtoshelterinplacenowandthentoevacuateafteraspecifiedperiodoftime.
Results indicate that 71.6% of households would follow instructions and delay the start of
evacuation until so advised, while the balance of 28.4% would choose to begin evacuating
immediately,asshowninFigureF12.
F.3.3 TimeDistributionResults
Thesurveyaskedseveralquestionsabouttheamountoftimeittakestoperformcertainpre evacuationactivities.Theseactivitiesinvolveactionstakenbyresidentsduringthecourseoftheir
daytodaylives.Thus,theanswersfallwithintherealmoftherespondersexperience.
The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis
describedinSection5.4.1onthecomponentactivitiesofthemobilization.
As discussed in Section F.3.1 and shown in Figure F8, the majority (69.3%) of respondents
indicatednocommuterswereimpactedbytheCOVID19pandemic;thereforetheresultsforthe
timedistributionofcommuters(timetopreparetoleavework/collegeandtimetotravelhome
fromwork/college)wereusedasisinthisstudy.
Howlongdoesittakethecommutertocompletepreparationforleavingwork?FigureF13
presentsthecumulativedistribution;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedbyabout75minutes.
Eightyonepercent(81%)canleavewithin30minutes.
Howlongwouldittakethecommutertotravelhome?FigureF14presentstheworktohome
traveltimefortheEPZ.Seventysevenpercent(77%)ofcommuterscanarrivehomewithin45
minutesofleavingwork;allwithin105minutes.
Howlongwouldittakethefamilytopackclothing,securethehouse,andloadthecar?Figure
F15presentsthetimerequiredtoprepareforleavingonanevacuationtrip.Inmanywaysthis
activitymimicsafamilyspreparationforashortholidayorweekendawayfromhome.Hence,
theresponsesrepresenttheexperienceoftheresponderinperformingsimilaractivities.
ThedistributionshowninFigureF15hasalongtail.Approximately91%ofhouseholdscanbe
readytoleavehomewithin2hoursand30minutes;theremaininghouseholdsrequireuptoan
additional1hourand45minutes.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation F4 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TableF1.PVNGSDemographicSurveySamplingPlan
EPZHouseholds
EPZPopulations withinZipCode Required Samples
ZipCode (2010) (2010) Samples Obtained
85322 675 223 36 13
85326 522 156 25 126
85343 48 12 2 3
85354 5,601 1,845 293 124
85396 277 86 14 126
Total 7,123 2,322 370 392
AverageHouseholdSize: 3.07
HouseholdSize 60%
50%
Percent ofHouseholds 40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1 2 3 4 5 6+
HouseholdSize
FigureF1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation F5 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
VehicleAvailability 60%
49%
50%
Percent ofHouseholds 40%
30%
22%
20% 17%
6%
10% 6%
0%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5+
Vehicles
FigureF2.VehicleAvailability
DistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 15PersonHouseholds 1Person 2People 3People 4People 5People 100%
80%
Percent ofHouseholds 60%
40%
20%
0%
1 2 3 4 5+
Vehicles
FigureF3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation F6 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
DistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 69+PersonHouseholds 6People 7People 8People 9+People 100%
80%
Percent ofHouseholds 60%
40%
20%
0%
2 3 4 5+
Vehicles
FigureF4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds
RidesharewithNeighbor/Friend 100%
80%
72%
Percent ofHouseholds 60%
40%
28%
20%
0%
Yes No
FigureF5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation F7 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
CommutersPerHousehold 60%
50.90%
50%
Percent ofHouseholds 40%
30% 27.37%
20%
14.83%
10%
3.32% 3.58%
0%
0 1 2 3 4+
Commuters
FigureF6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ
TravelModetoWork 100%
81.94%
80%
PercentofCommuters 60%
40%
17.74%
20%
0.32%
0%
Walk/Bike DriveAlone Carpool(2+)
ModeofTravel
FigureF7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation F8 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
COVID19PandemicImpact 80%
70%
Percent ofHouseholds 60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0 1 2 3 4+
Commuters
FigureF8.CommutersImpactedbyCOVID19
EvacuatingVehiclesPerHousehold 100%
80%
PercentofHouseholds 58.46%
60%
32.56%
40%
20%
8.72%
0.26%
0%
0 1 2 3+
Vehicles
FigureF9.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation F9 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
AwaitReturningCommuterBeforeLeaving 100%
80%
Percent ofHouseholds 60%
49.86% 50.14%
40%
20%
0%
Yes,wouldawaitreturn No,wouldevacuate
FigureF10.PercentofHouseholdsthatAwaitReturningCommuterBeforeLeaving
ShelterInPlaceCharacteristics 100%
90.2%
80%
Percent ofHouseholds 60%
40%
20%
9.8%
0%
Shelter Evacuate
FigureF11.ShelterinPlaceCharacteristics
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation F10 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
ShelterthenEvacuateCharacteristics 100%
80% 71.6%
Percent ofHouseholds 60%
40%
28.4%
20%
0%
Shelter,thenEvacuate EvacuateImmediately
FigureF12.ShelterthenEvacuateCharacteristics
TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork/College 100%
80%
PercentofCommuters 60%
40%
20%
0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 PreparationTime(min)
FigureF13.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/College
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation F11 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TimetoCommuteHomefromWork/College 100%
80%
Percent ofCommuters 60%
40%
20%
0%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 TravelTime(min)
FigureF14.Work/CollegetoHomeTravelTime
TimetoPreparetoLeaveHome 100%
80%
Percent ofHouseholds 60%
40%
20%
0%
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 PreparationTime(min)
FigureF15.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation F12 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
ATTACHMENTA
DemographicSurveyInstrument
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation F13 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
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APPENDIXG
TrafficManagementPlan
G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN
NUREG/CR7002, Rev.1 indicates that the existing traffic control points and access control
points (Roadblocks) identified by the offsite agencies should be used in the evacuation
simulationmodeling.TheRoadblocklocationmapfortheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)was
providedbytheCountyofMaricopa.
This traffic management plan (TMP) was reviewed and the Roadblocks were modeled
accordingly. An analysis of the Roadblock locations was performed and it was determined to
model the ETE simulations with no Roadblocks, except those located on Interstate (I)10, as
discussedinSectionG.2.
G.1 Roadblocks
AsdiscussedinSection9,Roadblocks(mannedbytheCountyofMaricopa)thatarewithinthe
EPZ at intersections (which are controlled) were initially modeled as actuated signals. If an
intersectionhasapretimedsignal,stop,oryieldcontrol,andtheintersectionisidentifiedasa
Roadblock, the control type was changed to an actuated signal in the DYNEV II system, in
accordancewithSection3.3ofNUREG/CR7002,Rev.1.Roadblocksatexistingactuatedtraffic
signalizedintersectionswereessentiallyleftalone.TheseRoadblocks,asshownintheCounty
ofMaricopaMap,aremappedasbluedotsinFigureG1.Theselocationswereultimatelynot
consideredinthisstudy.(SeeSectionG.2.)
ItisassumedthattheRoadblocks(mannedbytheStateofArizona)onI10willbeestablished
within45minutesoftheadvisorytoevacuate(ATE)todiscouragethroughtravelersfromusing
majorthroughrouteswhichtraversetheEPZ.AsdiscussedinSection3.9,externaltrafficwas
onlyconsideredonI10inthisanalysis.Thegenerationoftheseexternaltrips(3,070vehicles
duringdayconditions,1,228vehiclesineveningconditions)ceasedat45minutesaftertheATE
inthesimulation.TheseRoadblocks,asshownintheCountyofMaricopaMap,aremappedas
redsquaresinFigureG1.
G.2 AnalysisofKeyRoadblockLocations
As discussed in Section 5.2 of NUREG/CR7002, Rev. 1, manual traffic control (MTC) at
intersections could benefit from ETE analysis. The Roadblocks locations contained within the
TMPwereanalyzedtodeterminekeylocationswhereMTCwouldbemostusefulandcanbe
readily implemented. As previously mentioned, signalized intersections that were actuated
basedonfielddatacollectionwereessentiallyleftasactuatedtrafficsignalsinthemodel,with
modifications to green time allocation as needed. Other controlled intersections (pretimed
signals, stop signs and yield signs) were changed to actuated traffic signals to represent the
MTCthatwouldbeimplementedaccordingtotheTMP.
TableG1showsalistofthecontrolledintersectionsthatwereidentifiedasRoadblocksinthe
TMP that were not previously actuated signals, including the type of control that currently
exists at each location. To determine the impact of MTC at these locations, a summer,
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation G1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
midweek, midday, good weather scenario (Scenario 1) evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region
R03)wassimulatedwhereintheseintersectionsweretreatedasRoadblocks(withMTC).These
results were compared to the results presented in Section 7 (where these intersections were
nottreatedasRoadblocks).TheETEhadnochangeinthe90thand100thpercentileETEwhen
MTCwaspresentattheseintersections.
As shown in Figure 73 through Figure 77, the southern and western portion of the EPZ
experience very little traffic congestion during an evacuation of the EPZ. As such, the
RoadblocksinthesouthernandwesternportionoftheEPZdonothelptheETE.Thenorthern
andeasternportionoftheEPZexperiencestrafficcongestion,asheavytrafficflowsexistwithin
PVNGS and on both the north (on S 339th Avenue) and east (on W Van Buren Street and W
Salome Highway) direction, as vehicles evacuate PVNGS and the area. When heavy traffic
persists in competing directions, MTC provides no benefit since both approaches need equal
amountsofgreentime.Asaresult,theRoadblocksinthenorthernandeasternportionofthe
Study Area do not help the ETE as well. In addition, traffic congestion clears prior to the
completionoftripgeneration.The100thpercentileETEisdictatedbytripgeneration(plus10
minutetraveltimetoEPZboundary).Assuch,thereisnoimpacttothe100thpercentileETE.
Therefore,theimplementationofRoadblockshasnoimpactstoETE.Thus,wedidnotconsider
theRoadblocks(mappedasbluedotsinFigureG1)forthisstudy,exceptforthoselocatedonI 10 (mapped as red squares in Figure G1) as they serve to discourage the externalexternal
trafficfromenteringI10.WhileRoadblocksarenotnecessarytoevacuatetheEPZexpediently,
staffing these locations does still provide value during an evacuation such as guiding those
evacueeswhoarenotfamiliarwiththeareaandservingasfixedpointsurveillanceifthereisan
incidentononeofthemajorevacuationroutes.
TableK1providesthenumberofnodeswitheachcontroltype.IftheexistingcontrolonI10
waschangedduetobeingaRoadblock,thecontroltypeisindicatedasRoadblockinTableK 1.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation G2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TableG1.ListofKeyRoadblockLocations
Roadblock UNITESNode# PreviousControl Roadblock UNITESNode# PreviousControl
A1 150 StopControl 152 StopControl
E17
A3 112 StopControl 50 StopControl
B5 135 StopControl E18 77 StopControl
A8 154 StopControl F1 82 NoControl
ADOT1 59 NoControl F2 130 NoControl
AJ2 100 StopControl F3 45 StopControl
B2 173 StopControl F6 47 StopControl
B7 126 StopControl F11 49 NoControl
C2 149 StopControl G1 81 StopControl
C3 148 StopControl G3 159 StopControl
C4 113 StopControl G4 160 NoControl
C6 114 StopControl G5 68 StopControl
C7 67 StopControl H3 70 NoControl
C8 134 StopControl M2 101 NoControl
C9 87 StopControl N1 105 NoControl
D1 116 NoControl P1 32 NoControl
D7 196 NoControl Q1 38 NoControl
D10 197 StopControl Q3 190 NoControl
D12 90 StopControl Q4 39 StopControl
E1 83 StopControl R2 26 NoControl
E2 44 NoControl R5 117 NoControl
E3 157 NoControl R7 222 StopControl
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation G3 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureG1.RoadblocksforthePVNGSSite
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation G4 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
APPENDIXH
EvacuationRegions
H EVACUATIONREGIONS
ThisappendixpresentstheevacuationpercentagesforeachEvacuationRegion(TableH1)and
mapsofallEvacuationRegions(FigureH1throughFigureH52).Thepercentagespresentedin
TableH1arebasedonthemethodologydiscussedinassumption7ofSection2.2andshownin
Figure21.
NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhouseholdswillnotcomplywiththeshelter
advisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR7002,Rev.1.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TableH1.PercentofSectorPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion
RadialRegions Sector 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region Description Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R01 2MileRegion X X R02 5MileRegion X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R03 FullEPZ X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X Evacuate2MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles Sector WindDirection 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region From: Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R04 S X X X X X R05 SSW X X X X X R06 SW X X X X X R07 WSW X X X X X R08 W X X X X X R09 WNW X X X X X R10 NW X X X X X R11 NNW X X X X X R12 N X X X X X R13 NNE X X X X X R14 NE X X X X X R15 ENE X X X X X R16 E X X X X X X X R17 ESE X X X X X X X R18 SE X X X X X X X R19 SSE X X X X X Sector(s)Evacuate Sector(s)ShelterinPlace
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Evacuate2MileRegionandDownwindtoEPZBoundary Sector WindDirection 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region From: Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R20 S X X X X X X X X R21 SSW X X X X X X X X R22 SW X X X X X X X X R23 WSW X X X X X X X X R24 W X X X X X X X X R25 WNW X X X X X X X X R26 NW X X X X X X X X R27 NNW X X X X X X X X R28 N X X X X X X X X R29 NNE X X X X X X X X R30 NE X X X X X X X X R31 ENE X X X X X X X X R32 E X X X X X X X X X X X X R33 ESE X X X X X X X X X X X X R34 SE X X X X X X X X X X X X R35 SSE X X X X X X X X StagedEvacuation2MileRegionEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5Miles Sector WindDirection 2Mile A B C D E F G H J K L M N P Q R PVNGS Region From: Radius 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 25 510 R36 5MileRegion X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X X R37 S X X X X X R38 SSW X X X X X R39 SW X X X X X R40 WSW X X X X X R41 W X X X X X R42 WNW X X X X X R43 NW X X X X X R44 NNW X X X X X R45 N X X X X X R46 NNE X X X X X R47 NE X X X X X R48 ENE X X X X X R49 E X X X X X X X R50 ESE X X X X X X X R51 SE X X X X X X X R52 SSE X X X X X Sector(s)Evacuate Sector(s)ShelterinPlace Sector(s)ShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuate
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H3 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH1.RegionR01
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H4 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH2.RegionR02
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H5 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH3.RegionR03
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H6 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH4.RegionR04
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H7 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH5.RegionR05
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H8 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH6.RegionR06
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H9 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH7.RegionR07
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H10 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH8.RegionR08
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H11 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH9.RegionR09
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H12 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH10.RegionR10
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H13 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH11.RegionR11
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H14 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH12.RegionR12
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H15 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH13.RegionR13
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H16 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH14.RegionR14
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H17 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH15.RegionR15
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H18 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH16.RegionR16
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H19 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH17.RegionR17
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H20 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH18.RegionR18
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H21 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH19.RegionR19
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H22 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH20.RegionR20
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H23 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH21.RegionR21
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H24 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH22.RegionR22
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H25 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH23.RegionR23
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H26 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH24.RegionR24
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H27 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH25.RegionR25
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H28 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH26.RegionR26
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H29 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH27.RegionR27
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H30 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH28.RegionR28
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H31 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH29.RegionR29
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H32 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH30.RegionR30
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H33 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH31.RegionR31
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H34 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH32.RegionR32
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H35 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH33.RegionR33
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H36 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH34.RegionR34
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H37 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH35.RegionR35
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H38 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH36.RegionR36
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H39 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH37.RegionR37
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H40 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH38.RegionR38
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H41 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH39.RegionR39
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H42 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH40.RegionR40
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H43 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH41.RegionR41
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H44 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH42.RegionR42
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H45 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH43.RegionR43
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H46 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH44.RegionR44
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H47 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH45.RegionR45
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H48 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH46.RegionR46
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H49 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH47.RegionR47
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H50 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH48.RegionR48
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H51 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH49.RegionR49
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H52 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH50.RegionR50
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H53 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH51.RegionR51
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H54 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureH52.RegionR52
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation H55 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
APPENDIXJ
RepresentativeInputstoandOutputsfromtheDYNEVIISystem
J. REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM
ThisappendixpresentsdatainputtoandoutputfromtheDYNEVIISystem.
Table J1 provides source (vehicle loading) and destination information for several roadway
segments(links)intheanalysisnetwork.Intotal,thereareatotalof97sourcelinks(origins)in
the model The source links are shown as centroid points in Figure J1. On average, evacuees
travelastraightlinedistanceof9.9milestoexitthenetwork.
Table J2 provides network-wide statistics (average travel time, average delay time1 average
speed and number of vehicles) for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03) for each
scenario.Rainscenarios(Scenarios2,4,7and9)exhibitsloweraveragespeeds,higherdelays
andlongeraveragetraveltimesthangoodweatherscenarios.Scenario12(singlelaneclosed
onInterstate(I)10eastbound)exhibitstheslowestaveragespeed,highestdelaysandlongest
traveltimeduetothecombinationofthereducedcapacityofI10.
TableJ3providesstatistics(averagespeedandtraveltime)forthemajorevacuationroute,I 10,foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.Asdiscussed
throughout the report roadblocks on I10 is established 45 minutes after the advisory to
evacuate(ATE).Assuch,theaveragespeedsareslowerandtraveltimesarelongerduringthe
firsthouroftheevacuationwhenexternaltripsarestilltravelingalongI10.
Table J4 provides the number of vehicles discharged and the cumulative percent of total
vehicles discharged foreach link exiting the analysis network, for anevacuationof the entire
EPZ (Region R03) under Scenario 1 conditions. Refer to the figures in Appendix K for a map
showingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.
FigureJ2throughFigureJ13plotthetripgenerationtimeversustheETEforeachofthe12
Scenarios considered. The distance between the trip generation and ETE curves is the travel
time.PlotsoftripgenerationversusETEareindicativeoftheleveloftrafficcongestionduring
evacuation. For low population density sites, the curves are close together, indicating short
traveltimesandminimaltrafficcongestion.Forhigherpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesare
fartherapartindicatinglongertraveltimesandthepresenceoftrafficcongestion.Eventhough
the site is sparsely populated, the large number of employees at the PVNGS site causes
congestion over the first 2 hours and 15 minutes following the ATE. As seen in Figure J2
throughFigureJ13,thecurvesarespatiallyseparatedforabout2hoursand30minutesduring
midweek,middayscenarios,duetotheemployeesevacuatingtheEPZandthenbecomecloser
together as a result of the minimal traffic congestion in the EPZ after this time, which was
discussedindetailinSection7.3.Duringweekendandeveningscenarios,therearelessPVNGS
employees,sothecurvesforthosescenariosareclosetogether.
1 Computed as the difference of the average travel time and the average ideal travel time under free flow condition.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation J1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TableJ1.SampleSimulationModelInput
VehiclesEntering
Link Upstream Downstream Network Directional Destination Destination
Number Node Node onthisLink Preference Nodes Capacity
8021 4,500
303 226 225 113 N
8198 1,275
258 183 149 92 NE 8021 4,500
8062 3,800
121 81 147 53 SE 8198 1,275
8021 4,500
8021 4,500
219 154 86 225 N
8198 1,275
160 114 113 216 NE 8021 4,500
8062 3,800
105 68 180 52 SE 8198 1,275
8021 4,500
8021 4,500
175 124 125 20 N
8198 1,275
116 77 191 20 E 8021 4,500
280 203 277 13 E 8198 1,275
TableJ2.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)
Scenario 1 2 3 4 5 6
NetworkWideAverage
1.0 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0
TravelTime(Min/VehMi)
NetworkWideAverage
0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
DelayTime(Min/VehMi)
NetworkWideAverage
60.0 53.7 60.0 57.5 60.0 60.0
Speed(mph)
TotalVehicles
15,250 15,346 12,566 12,660 9,591 15,477
ExitingNetwork
Scenario 7 8 9 10 11 12
NetworkWideAverage
1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.6
TravelTime(Min/VehMi)
NetworkWideAverage
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5
DelayTime(Min/VehMi)
NetworkWideAverage
53.5 60.0 57.5 60.0 58.7 38.2
Speed(mph)
TotalVehiclesExiting
15,576 12,568 12,666 9,607 16,641 15,250
Network
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation J2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TableJ3.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)
ElapsedTime(hours)
1 2 3 4 5 6
Travel
Length Speed Time Travel Travel Travel Travel Travel
RouteName (miles) (mph) (min) Speed Time Speed Time Speed Time Speed Time Speed Time
I10Eastbound 34.9 56.2 37.3 72.6 28.9 70.4 29.8 69.0 30.4 66.3 31.6 64.3 32.6
I10Westbound 34.9 56.5 37.1 75.0 27.9 74.2 28.2 73.5 28.5 72.2 29.0 75.0 27.9
TableJ4.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1
ElapsedTime(hours)
Network Upstream Downstream 1 2 3 4 5 6
ExitLink Node Node CumulativeVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTime
CumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedbytheIndicatedTime
35 109 154 167 171 172
114 75 76
0.7% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%
11 246 575 737 795 821
141 99 205
0.2% 2.4% 4.2% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4%
87 308 403 431 440 441
279 202 52
1.7% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9% 2.9% 2.9%
9 51 84 98 104 105
282 206 200
0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
1,966 2,538 2,636 2,690 2,710 2,714
290 213 137
39.0% 24.6% 19.5% 18.3% 17.9% 17.8%
224 819 1,201 1,278 1,305 1,310
388 302 198
4.5% 7.9% 8.9% 8.7% 8.6% 8.6%
2,704 6,261 8,493 9,311 9,607 9,687
390 303 20
53.7% 60.6% 62.7% 63.3% 63.5% 63.5%
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation J3 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureJ1.NetworkSources/Origins
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation J4 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
ETEandTripGeneration
Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather (Scenario1)
TripGeneration ETE 100%
PercentofTotalVehicles 80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTime(h:mm)
FigureJ2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)
ETEandTripGeneration
Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario2)
TripGeneration ETE 100%
PercentofTotalVehicles 80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTime(h:mm)
FigureJ3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation J5 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
ETEandTripGeneration
Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather (Scenario3)
TripGeneration ETE 100%
PercentofTotalVehicles 80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTime(h:mm)
FigureJ4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)
ETEandTripGeneration
Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario4)
TripGeneration ETE 100%
PercentofTotalVehicles 80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTime(h:mm)
FigureJ5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation J6 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
ETEandTripGeneration
Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather (Scenario5)
TripGeneration ETE 100%
PercentofTotalVehicles 80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTime(h:mm)
FigureJ6.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)
ETEandTripGeneration
Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather (Scenario6)
TripGeneration ETE 100%
PercentofTotalVehicles 80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTime(h:mm)
FigureJ7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation J7 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
ETEandTripGeneration
Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain (Scenario7)
TripGeneration ETE 100%
PercentofTotalVehicles 80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTime(h:mm)
FigureJ8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)
ETEandTripGeneration
Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather (Scenario8)
TripGeneration ETE 100%
PercentofTotalVehicles 80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTime(h:mm)
FigureJ9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario8)
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation J8 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
ETEandTripGeneration
Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain (Scenario9)
TripGeneration ETE 100%
PercentofTotalVehicles 80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTime(h:mm)
FigureJ10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario9)
ETEandTripGeneration
Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather (Scenario10)
TripGeneration ETE 100%
PercentofTotalVehicles 80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTime(h:mm)
FigureJ11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario10)
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation J9 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
ETEandTripGeneration
Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent (Scenario11)
TripGeneration ETE 100%
PercentofTotalVehicles 80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTime(h:mm)
FigureJ12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario11)
ETEandTripGeneration
Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact (Scenario12)
TripGeneration ETE 100%
PercentofTotalVehicles 80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
0:00 0:30 1:00 1:30 2:00 2:30 3:00 3:30 4:00 4:30 5:00 5:30 6:00 6:30 ElapsedTime(h:mm)
FigureJ13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario12)
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation J10 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
APPENDIXK
EvacuationRoadwayNetwork
K. EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK
AsdiscussedinSection1.3,alinknodeanalysisnetworkwasconstructedtomodeltheroadway
network within the study area. Figure K1 provides an overview of the linknode analysis
network. The figure has been divided up into 30 more detailed figures (Figure K2 through
FigureK31)whichshoweachofthelinksandnodesinthenetwork.
The analysis network was calibrated using the observations made during the field surveys
conductedinOctober2020.
Table K1 summarizes the number of nodes by the type of control (stop sign, yield sign, pre timedsignal,actuatedsignal,roadblocks,uncontrolled).
TableK1.SummaryofNodesbytheTypeofControl
Numberof
ControlType
Nodes
Uncontrolled 224
Pretimed 0
Actuated 12
Stop 52
Roadblocks 3
Yield 6
Total: 297
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK1.PVNGSLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK2.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K3 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK3.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K4 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK4.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K5 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK5.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K6 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK6.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K7 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK7.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K8 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK8.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K9 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK9.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K10 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK10.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K11 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK11.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K12 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK12.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K13 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK13.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K14 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK14.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K15 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK15.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K16 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK16.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K17 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK17.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K18 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK18.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K19 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK19.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K20 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK20.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K21 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK21.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K22 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK22.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K23 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK23.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K24 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK24.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K25 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK25.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K26 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK26.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K27 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK27.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K28 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK28.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K29 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK29.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K30 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK30.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K31 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureK31.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation K32 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
APPENDIXL
SectorBoundaries
L. SECTORBOUNDARIES
TheemergencyplansforthePaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation(PVNGS)indicatetheuseof
asectorapproachinsteadofemergencyresponseplanningareas.TheSectorsarebrokenupby
compassdirection(22.5°each)andradialdistance(1mileincrements)fromtheplant.Theone
mile region consists of primarily the plant site. There are a total of 145 Sectors as shown in
FigureL1.
According to the latest public information brochure, permanent residents are instructed to
determinetheirSectorletterandmileringclosesttowheretheirhomeislocatedandtorecord
itforfuturereference.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation L1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
FigureL1.PVNGSSectors
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation L2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
APPENDIXM
EvacuationSensitivityStudies
M. EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES
This appendix presents the results of a series of sensitivity analyses. These analyses are
designedtoidentifythesensitivityoftheEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)tochangesinsome
baseevacuationconditions.
M.1 EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes
A sensitivity study was performed to determine whether changes in the estimated trip
generation time have an effect on the ETE for the entire Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ).
Specifically, if the tail of the mobilization distribution were truncated (i.e., if those who
respondedmostslowlytotheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE),couldbepersuadedtorespondmuch
morerapidly)orifthetailwereelongated(i.e.,spreadingoutthedepartureofevacueestolimit
the demand during peak times), how would the ETE be affected? The case considered was
Scenario1,Region3;asummer,midweek,midday,withgoodweatherevacuationoftheentire
EPZ.TableM1presentstheresultsofthisstudy.
If evacueesmobilize one hour quicker, the 90th percentile ETE is reduced by 30 minutes, and
the100thpercentileETEisreducedby1hour-asignificantchange.Anincreaseinmobilization
timeby1hourincreasesthe90thand100thpercentileETEby1hour.
AsindicatedinSection7.3,trafficcongestionwithintheEPZclearsat2hoursand55minutes
aftertheATE,wellbeforethecompletionoftripgenerationtime.Assuch,congestiondictates
the100thpercentileuntil2hoursand55minutesaftertheATE.Afterthistime,tripgeneration
(plusa10minutetraveltimetotheEPZboundary),dictatesthe100thpercentileETE.
M.2 EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate
A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect on ETE due to changes in the
percentage of people who decide to relocate from the Shadow Region. The case considered
wasScenario1,Region3;asummer,midweek,midday,withgoodweatherevacuationforthe
entireEPZ.ThemovementofpeopleintheShadowRegionhasthepotentialtoimpedevehicles
evacuating from an Evacuation Region within the EPZ. Refer to Sections 3.2 and 7.1 for
additionalinformationonpopulationwithintheShadowRegion.
TableM2presentstheETEforeachofthecasesconsidered.Theresultsshowthateliminatingthe
shadowevacuation(0%)hasnoimpacttothe90thand100thpercentileETEs.Triplingtheshadow
percentage(60%)increasesthe90thpercentileETEby5minutesandhasnoimpacttothe100th
percentile ETE. Full evacuation (100%) of the Shadow Region increases the 90th and 100th
percentileETEby5minutes-minimalimpact.
Note,thedemographicsurveyresultspresentedinAppendixFindicatethatapproximately10%of
households would elect to evacuate if advised to shelter, which differs from the assumption of
20% noncompliance suggested in NUREG/CR7002, Rev 1. A sensitivity study was considered
usingthe10%shadowevacuationandthe90thand100thpercentileETEswerenotimpacted.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation M1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TheShadowRegionforPVNGSissparselypopulatedexceptnearBuckeye,outsideofSectorsC,D,
E,FandG.AsshowninFigures73through77,thereissomecongestionintheShadowRegionto
gainaccesstoI10butdoesnotpropagateintotheEPZ(after2hoursand55minutes),suchthat
the EPZ evacuees would be delayed. Therefore, any additional shadow residents that decide to
voluntarily evacuate are accommodated by the excess capacity available in the study area such
that ETE are not significantly impacted. In addition, the trip generation (plus a 10minute travel
timetotheEPZboundary),dictatesthe100thpercentileETE.
M.3 EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation
A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect on ETE due to changes in the
permanentresidentpopulationwithinthestudyarea(EPZplusShadowRegion).Aspopulation
in the study area changes over time, the time required to evacuate the public may increase,
decrease,orremainthesame.SincetheETEisrelatedtothedemandtocapacityratiopresent
within the study area, changes in population will cause the demand side of the equation to
changeandcouldimpactETE.
As per the NRCs response to the Emergency Planning Frequently Asked Question (EPFAQ)
2013001, the ETE population sensitivity study must be conducted to determine what
percentageincreaseinpermanentresidentpopulationcausesanincreaseinthe90thpercentile
ETEof25%or30minutes,whicheverisless.Thesensitivitystudymustusethescenariowith
the longest90th percentile ETE(excluding the roadway impact scenario and the special event
scenarioifitisaonedayperyearspecialevent).
Thus,thesensitivitystudywasconductedusingthefollowingplanningassumptions:
- 1. Thepercentchangeinpopulationwithinthestudyareawasincreasedbyupto143%.
Changes in population were applied to permanent residents only (as per federal
guidance),inboththeEPZandtheShadowRegion.
- 2. The transportation infrastructure remained fixed (as presented in Appendix K); the
presenceoffutureproposedroadwaychangesand/orhighwaycapacityimprovements
werenotconsidered.
- 3. Thestudywasperformedforthe2MileRegion(R01),the5MileRegion(R02)andthe
entireEPZ(R03).
- 4. Thescenario(excludingroadwayimpact)whichyieldedthelongest90thpercentileETE
valueswasselectedasthecasetobeconsideredinthesensitivitystudy(Scenario11
Winter, Midweek, Midday, with Good Weather, Special Event). The Special Event
consideredisarefuelingoutageattheplant,whichisjustifiedduetothedurationofthe
outage,whichcouldlastmorethanamonth.
TableM3presentstheresultsofthesensitivitystudy.SectionIVofAppendixEto10CFRPart
50, and NUREG/CR7002, Rev 1, Section 5.4, require licensees to provide an updated ETE
analysis to the NRC when a population increase within the EPZ causes the longest 90th
percentileETEvalues(forthe2MileRegion,5MileRegionorentireEPZ)toincreaseby25%or
30minutes,whicheverisless.AllbaseETEvaluesaregreaterthan2hours;25percentofthese
baseETEisalwaysgreaterthan30minutes.Therefore,thecriterionforupdatingis30minutes.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation M2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Those percent population changes which result in the longest 90th percentile ETE change
greater than or equal to 30 minutes are highlighted in red in Table M3 - a 143% or greater
increase in the full EPZ population. APS will have to estimate the full EPZ population on an
annualbasis.IfthefullEPZpopulationincreasesby143%ormore,anupdatedETEanalysiswill
beneeded.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation M3 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
TableM1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy
Trip EvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ
Generation
Time 90thPercentile 100thPercentile
4Hours45Minutes 2:15 4:55
5Hours45Minutes(Base) 2:45 5:55
6Hours45Minutes 3:45 6:55
TableM2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy
Evacuating EvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ
PercentShadow
Shadow
Evacuation 90thPercentile 100thPercentile
Vehicles1
0 0 2:45 5:55
10 980 2:45 5:55
20(Base) 1,959 2:45 5:55
40 3,918 2:50 5:55
60 5,877 2:50 5:55
80 7,836 2:50 5:55
100 9,795 2:50 6:00
TableM3.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforVariationwithPopulationChange
EPZand20% PopulationChange
ShadowPermanent Base 141% 142% 143%
Resident
Population 12,094 29,147 29,268 29,389
th ETEforthe90 Percentile
PopulationChange
Region Base 141% 142% 143%
2MILE 2:45 2:45 2:45 2:45
5MILE 3:00 3:05 3:05 3:05
FULLEPZ 2:55 3:20 3:20 3:25
th ETEforthe100 Percentile
PopulationChange
Region Base 141% 142% 143%
2MILE 5:45 5:45 5:45 5:45
5MILE 5:50 5:50 5:50 5:50
FULLEPZ 5:55 6:00 6:00 6:00
1 The Evacuating Shadow Vehicles, in Table M-2, represent the residents and employees who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation. The basis, for the base values shown, is a 20% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees. See Section 6 for further discussion.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation M4 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
APPENDIXN
ETECriteriaChecklist
N. ETECRITERIACHECKLIST
TableN1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
1.0Introduction
- a. Theemergencyplanningzone(EPZ)andsurroundingareais Yes Section1
described.
- b. Amapisincludedthatidentifiesprimaryfeaturesofthesite Yes Figures11,31,61
includingmajorroadways,significanttopographicalfeatures,
boundariesofcounties,andpopulationcenterswithintheEPZ.
- c. AcomparisonofthecurrentandpreviousETEisprovided Yes Table13
includinginformationsimilartothatidentifiedinTable11,
ETEComparison.
1.1Approach
- a. Thegeneralapproachisdescribedinthereportasoutlinedin Yes Section1.1,Section1.3,AppendixD,
Section1.1,Approach. Table11,
1.2Assumptions
- a. AssumptionsconsistentwithTable12,GeneralAssumptions, Yes Section2
ofNUREG/CR7002areprovidedandincludethebasisto
supportuse.
1.3ScenarioDevelopment
- a. ThescenariosinTable13,EvacuationScenarios,are Yes Table21,Section6,Table62
developedfortheETEanalysis.Areasonisprovidedforuseof
otherscenariosorfornotevaluatingspecificscenarios.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N1 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
1.4EvacuationPlanningAreas
- a. AmapoftheEPZwithemergencyresponseplanningareas Yes Figure31,Figure61
(ERPAs)isincluded.
1.4.1KeyholeEvacuation
- a. AtablesimilartoTable14EvacuationAreasforaKeyhole Yes Table61,Table75,TableH1
Evacuation,isprovidedidentifyingtheERPAsconsideredfor
eachETEcalculationbydownwinddirection.
1.4.2StagedEvacuation
- a. Theapproachusedindevelopmentofastagedevacuationis Yes Section7.2
discussed.
- b. AtablesimilartoTable15,EvacuationAreasforaStaged Yes Table73,Table74
Evacuation,isprovidedforstagedevacuationsidentifyingthe
ERPAsconsideredforeachETEcalculationbydownwind
direction.
2.0DemandEstimation
- a. Demandestimationisdevelopedforthefourpopulationgroups Yes Section3
(permanentresidentsoftheEPZ,transients,specialfacilities,
andschools).
2.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulation
- a. TheU.S.Censusisthesourceofthepopulationvalues,or Yes Section3.1,2021PopulationData
anothercrediblesourceisprovided. providedbyMCDEM(withinEPZ)and
2020U.S.CensusDataextrapolatedto
2021(withinShadowRegion)
- b. Theavailabilitydateofthecensusdataisprovided. Yes Section3.2
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N2 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
- c. Populationvaluesareadjustedasnecessaryforgrowthto Yes Section3.1,Section3.2
reflectpopulationestimatestotheyearoftheETE.
- d. Asectordiagram,similartoFigure21,PopulationbySector, Yes Figure32
isincludedshowingthepopulationdistributionforpermanent
residents.
2.1.1PermanentResidentswithVehicles
- a. Thepersonspervehiclevalueisbetween1and3orjustification Yes Section3.1.AppendixF
isprovidedforothervalues.
2.1.2TransientPopulation
- a. Alistoffacilitiesthatattracttransientpopulationsisincluded, Yes Section3.3,TableE3
andpeakandaverageattendanceforthesefacilitiesislisted.
Thesourceofinformationusedtodevelopattendancevaluesis
provided.
- b. Majoremployersarelisted. Yes Section3.4,TableE2
- c. Theaveragepopulationduringtheseasonisused,itemizedand Yes Table35,Table36andAppendixE
totaledforeachscenario. itemizethetransientpopulationand
employeeestimates.Theseestimates
aremultipliedbythescenariospecific
percentagesprovidedinTable63to
estimatetransientpopulationby
scenario-seeTable64.
- d. Thepercentageofpermanentresidentsassumedtobeat Yes Section3.3andSection3.4
facilitiesisestimated.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N3 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
- e. Thenumberofpeoplepervehicleisprovided.Numbersmay Yes Section3.3andSection3.4
varybyscenario,andifso,reasonsforthevariationare
discussed.
- f. Asectordiagramisincluded,similartoFigure21,Population Yes Figure36(transients)andFigure38
bySector,isincludedshowingthepopulationdistributionfor (employees)
thetransientpopulation.
2.2TransitDependentPermanentResidents
- a. Themethodology(e.g.,surveys,registrationprograms)usedto Yes Section3.5
determinethenumberoftransitdependentresidentsis
discussed.
- b. TheStateandlocalevacuationplansfortransitdependent Yes Section8.1
residentsareusedintheanalysis.
- c. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberofpeoplewith Yes Section3.9
disabilitiesandthosewithaccessandfunctionalneedswho
mayneedassistanceanddonotresideinspecialfacilitiesis
provided.Datafromlocal/countyregistrationprogramsare
usedintheestimate.
- d. Capacitiesareprovidedforalltypesoftransportation Yes Item3ofSection2.4
resources.Busseatingcapacityof50percentisusedor
justificationisprovidedforhighervalues.
- e. Anestimateofthetransitdependentpopulationisprovided. Yes Section3.5,Table37,Table39
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N4 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
- f. Asummarytableshowingthetotalnumberofbuses, Yes Table39,Table81
ambulances,orothertransportassumedavailabletosupport
evacuationisprovided.Thequantificationofresourcesis
detailedenoughtoensurethatdoublecountinghasnot
occurred.
2.3SpecialFacilityResidents
- a. Specialfacilities,includingthetypeoffacility,location,and N/A
averagepopulation,arelisted.Specialfacilitystaffisincluded
inthetotalspecialfacilitypopulation.
- b. Themethodofobtainingspecialfacilitydataisdiscussed. N/A Nospecialfacilities(otherthanschools
- c. Anestimateofthenumberandcapacityofvehiclesassumed N/A whicharediscussedbelow)existwithin
availabletosupporttheevacuationofthefacilityisprovided. theEPZ.
- d. Thelogisticsformobilizingspeciallytrainedstaff(e.g.,medical N/A
supportorsecuritysupportforprisons,jails,andother
correctionalfacilities)arediscussedwhenappropriate.
2.4Schools
- a. Alistofschoolsincludingname,location,studentpopulation, Yes Table38,TableE1,Section3.6
andtransportationresourcesrequiredtosupportthe
evacuation,isprovided.Thesourceofthisinformationshould
beidentified.
- b. Transportationresourcesforelementaryandmiddleschools Yes Section3.6
arebasedon100percentoftheschoolcapacity.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N5 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
- c. Theestimateofhighschoolstudentswhowillusepersonal Yes Section3.6
vehicletoevacuateisprovidedandabasisforthevaluesusedis
given.
- d. Theneedforreturntripsisidentified. Yes Section8.1
2.5OtherDemandEstimateConsiderations
2.5.1SpecialEvents
- a. Acompletelistofspecialeventsisprovidedincluding Yes Section3.7
informationonthepopulation,estimatedduration,andseason
oftheevent.
- b. Thespecialeventthatencompassesthepeaktransient Yes Section3.7
populationisanalyzedintheETE.
- c. Thepercentageofpermanentresidentsattendingtheeventis Yes Section3.7
estimated.
2.5.2ShadowEvacuation
- a. Ashadowevacuationof20percentisincludedconsistentwith Yes Item7ofSection2.2,Figure21and
theapproachoutlinedinSection2.5.2,ShadowEvacuation. Figure71,Section3.2
- b. Populationestimatesfortheshadowevacuationintheshadow Yes Section3.2,Table34,Figure34
regionbeyondtheEPZareprovidedbysector.
- c. Theloadingoftheshadowevacuationontotheroadway Yes Section5-Table58(footnote)
networkisconsistentwiththetripgenerationtimegenerated
forthepermanentresidentpopulation.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N6 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
2.5.3BackgroundandPassThroughTraffic
- a. Thevolumeofbackgroundtrafficandpassthroughtrafficis Yes Section3.9andSection3.10
basedontheaveragedaytimetraffic.Valuesmaybereduced
fornighttimescenarios.
- b. Themethodofreducingbackgroundandpassthroughtrafficis Yes Section2.2-Assumptions11and12
described. Section2.5
Section3.9andSection3.10
Table63-ExternalThroughTraffic
footnote
- c. Passthroughtrafficisassumedtohavestoppedenteringthe Yes 45minuteswasused.Section2.5,
EPZabouttwo(2)hoursaftertheinitialnotification. Section3.9
2.6SummaryofDemandEstimation
- a. Asummarytableisprovidedthatidentifiesthetotal Yes Table311,Table312,andTable64
populationsandtotalvehiclesusedintheanalysisfor
permanentresidents,transients,transitdependentresidents,
specialfacilities,schools,shadowpopulation,andpassthrough
demandineachscenario.
3.0RoadwayCapacity
- a. Themethod(s)usedtoassessroadwaycapacityisdiscussed. Yes Section4
3.1RoadwayCharacteristics
- a. Theprocessforgatheringroadwaycharacteristicdatais Yes Section1.3,AppendixD
describedincludingthetypesofinformationgatheredandhow
itisusedintheanalysis.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N7 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
- b. Legiblemapsareprovidedthatidentifynodesandlinksofthe Yes AppendixK
modeledroadwaynetworksimilartoFigureA1,Roadway
NetworkIdentifyingNodesandLinks,andFigureA2,Grid
MapShowingDetailedNodesandLinks.
3.2ModelApproach
- a. Theapproachusedtocalculatetheroadwaycapacityforthe Yes Section4
transportationnetworkisdescribedindetail,andthe
descriptionidentifiesfactorsthatareexpresslyusedinthe
modeling.
- b. Routeassignmentfollowsexpectedevacuationroutesand Yes AppendixBandAppendixC
trafficvolumes.
- c. Abasisisprovidedforstaticroutechoicesifusedtoassign N/A Staticroutechoicesarenotusedto
evacuationroutes. assignevacuationroutes.Dynamic
trafficassignmentisused.
- d. Dynamictrafficassignmentmodelsaredescribedincluding Yes AppendixBandAppendixC
calibrationoftherouteassignment.
3.3IntersectionControl
- a. Alistthatincludesthetotalnumbersofintersectionsmodeled Yes TableK1
thatareunsignalized,signalized,ormannedbyresponse
personnelisprovided.
- b. Theuseofsignalcycletiming,includingadjustmentsfor Yes Section4,AppendixG
mannedtrafficcontrol,isdiscussed.
3.4AdverseWeather
- a. Theadverseweatherconditionsareidentified. Yes Assumption2and3ofSection2.6
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N8 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
- b. ThespeedandcapacityreductionfactorsidentifiedinTable31, Yes Table22
WeatherCapacityFactors,areusedorabasisisprovidedfor
othervalues,asapplicabletothemodel.
- c. Thecalibrationandadjustmentofdriverbehaviormodelsfor N/A Driverbehaviorisnotadjustedfor
adverseweatherconditionsaredescribed,ifapplicable. adverseweatherconditions.
- d. Theeffectofadverseweatheronmobilizationisconsideredand N/A Snowisnotconsideredforthissite.
assumptionsforsnowremovalonstreetsanddrivewaysare
identified,whenapplicable.
4.0DevelopmentofEvacuationTimes
4.1TrafficSimulationModels
- a. Generalinformationaboutthetrafficsimulationmodelusedin Yes Section1.3,Table13,AppendixB,
theanalysisisprovided. AppendixC
- b. IfatrafficsimulationmodelisnotusedtoperformtheETE N/A Notapplicablesinceatrafficsimulation
calculation,sufficientdetailisprovidedtovalidatethe modelwasused.
analyticalapproachused.
4.2TrafficSimulationModelInput
- a. Trafficsimulationmodelassumptionsandarepresentativeset Yes Section2,AppendixJ
ofmodelinputsareprovided.
- b. Thenumberoforiginnodesandmethodfordistributing Yes AppendixJ,AppendixC
vehiclesamongtheoriginnodesaredescribed.
- c. Aglossaryoftermsisprovidedforthekeyperformance Yes AppendixA,TableC1andTableC3
measuresandparametersusedintheanalysis.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N9 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
4.3TripGenerationTime
- a. Theprocessusedtodeveloptripgenerationtimesisidentified. Yes Section5
- b. Whensurveysareused,thescopeofthesurvey,areaofthe Yes AppendixF
survey,numberofparticipants,andstatisticalrelevanceare
provided.
- c. Datausedtodeveloptripgenerationtimesaresummarized. Yes AppendixF,Section5
- d. Thetripgenerationtimeforeachpopulationgroupis Yes Section5
developedfromsitespecificinformation.
- e. Themethodsusedtoreduceuncertaintywhendevelopingtrip Yes N/A
generationtimesarediscussed,ifapplicable.
4.3.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulation
- a. Permanentresidentsareassumedtoevacuatefromtheir Yes Section5discussestripgenerationfor
homesbutarenotassumedtobeathomeatalltimes.Trip householdswithandwithoutreturning
generationtimeincludestheassumptionthatapercentageof commuters.
residentswillneedtoreturnhomebeforeevacuating. Table63presentsthepercentageof
householdswithreturningcommuters
andthepercentageofhouseholdseither
withoutreturningcommutersorwithno
commuters.
AppendixFpresentsthepercent
householdswhowillawaitthereturnof
commuters.Section2.3,Assumption3
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N10 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
- b. Thetripgenerationtimeaccountsforthetimeandmethodto Yes Section5
notifytransientsatvariouslocations.
- c. Thetripgenerationtimeaccountsfortransientspotentially Yes Section5,Figure51
returningtohotelsbeforeevacuating.
- d. Theeffectofpublictransportationresourcesusedduring Yes Section3.7
specialeventswherealargenumberoftransientsareexpected
isconsidered.
4.3.2TransitDependentPermanentResidents
- a. Ifavailable,existingandapprovedplansandbusroutesare N/A Establishedbusroutesdonotexist.Basic
usedintheETEanalysis. busroutesweredevelopedfortheETE
analysis.
Section8.1underEvacuationofTransit DependentPopulation,Section20
- b. Themeansofevacuatingambulatoryandnonambulatory Yes Section8.2
residentsarediscussed.
- c. Logisticaldetails,suchasthetimetoobtainbuses,briefdrivers Yes Section8.1,Figure81
andinitiatethebusrouteareusedintheanalysis.
- d. Theestimatedtimefortransitdependentresidentstoprepare Yes Section8.1underEvacuationofTransit andthentraveltoabuspickuppoint,includingtheexpected DependentPopulation
meansoftraveltothepickuppoint,isdescribed.
- e. Thenumberofbusstopsandtimeneededtoloadpassengers Yes Section8.1,Table86andTable87
arediscussed.
- f. Amapofbusroutesisincluded. Yes Figure102
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N11 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
- g. Thetripgenerationtimefornonambulatorypersonsincluding Yes Section8.2
thetimetomobilizeambulancesorspecialvehicles,timeto
drivetothehomeofresidents,timetoload,andtimetodrive
outoftheEPZ,isprovided.
- h. Informationisprovidedtosupportanalysisofreturntrips,if Yes Section8.1and8.2
necessary.
4.3.3SpecialFacilities
- a. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimesis N/A
provided.
- b. Thelogisticsofevacuatingwheelchairandbedboundresidents N/A
arediscussed.
- c. Timeforloadingofresidentsisprovided. N/A
Nospecialfacilities(otherthanschools
- d. Informationisprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuation N/A
whicharediscussedbelow)existwithin
canbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsare
theEPZ.
needed.
- e. Discussionisprovidedonwhetherspecialfacilityresidentsare N/A
expectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterbeforebeing
evacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.
- f. Supportinginformationisprovidedtoquantifythetime N/A
elementsforeachtrip,includingdestinationsifreturntripsare
needed.
4.3.4Schools
- a. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimesis Yes Section2.4,Section8.1,Table82and
provided. Table83
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N12 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
- b. Timeforloadingofstudentsisprovided. Yes Section2.4,Section8.1,Table82and
Table83
- c. Informationisprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuation Yes Section8.1
canbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsare
needed.
- d. Ifused,receptioncentersshouldbeidentified.Adiscussionis Yes Section8.1,Table103
providedonwhetherstudentsareexpectedtopassthroughthe
receptioncenterbeforebeingevacuatedtotheirfinal
destination.
- e. Supportinginformationisprovidedtoquantifythetime Yes Section8.1,Table82andTable83
elementsforeachtrip,includingdestinationsifreturntripsare
needed.
4.4StochasticModelRuns
- a. Thenumberofsimulationrunsneededtoproduceaverage N/A DYNEVdoesnotrelyonsimulation
resultsisdiscussed. averagesorrandomseedsforstatistical
- b. IfonerunofasinglerandomseedisusedtoproduceeachETE N/A confidence.ForDYNEV/DTRAD,itisa
result,thereportincludesasensitivitystudyonthe90percent mesoscopicsimulationanduses
and100percentETEusing10differentrandomseedsfor dynamictrafficassignmentmodelto
evacuationofthefullEPZunderSummer,Midweek,Daytime, obtainthe"average"(stable)network
NormalWeatherconditions. workflowdistribution.Thisisdifferent
frommicroscopicsimulation,whichis
montecarlorandomsamplingbynature
relyingondifferentseedstoestablish
statisticalconfidence.RefertoAppendix
Bformoredetails.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N13 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
4.5ModelBoundaries
- a. Themethodusedtoestablishthesimulationmodelboundaries Yes Section4.5
isdiscussed.
- b. Significantcapacityreductionsorpopulationcentersthatmay Yes Section4.5
influencetheETEandthatarelocatedbeyondtheevacuation
areaorshadowregionareidentifiedandincludedinthemodel,
ifneeded.
4.6TrafficSimulationModelOutput
- a. Adiscussionofwhetherthetrafficsimulationmodelusedmust Yes AppendixB
beinequilibrationpriortocalculatingtheETEisprovided.
- b. Theminimumfollowingmodeloutputsforevacuationofthe Yes 1. AppendixJ,TableJ2
entireEPZareprovidedtosupportreview: 2. TableJ2
- 1. Evacueeaveragetraveldistanceandtime. 3. TableJ4
- 2. Evacueeaveragedelaytime. 4. Noneand0%.100percentETEis
- 3. Numberofvehiclesarrivingateachdestinationnode. basedonthetimethelastvehicle
- 4. Totalnumberandpercentageofevacueevehiclesnot exitstheevacuationarea
exitingtheEPZ. 5. FiguresJ2throughJ13(oneplot
- 5. Aplotthatprovidesboththemobilizationcurveand foreachscenarioconsidered)
evacuationcurveidentifyingthecumulativepercentageof 6. TableJ3
evacueeswhohavemobilizedandexitedtheEPZ.
- 6. Averagespeedforeachmajorevacuationroutethatexits
theEPZ.
- c. Colorcodedroadwaymapsareprovidedforvarioustimes(e.g., Yes Figure73throughFigure77
at2,4,6hrs.)duringafullEPZevacuationscenario,identifying
areaswherecongestionexists.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N14 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
4.7EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheGeneralPublic
- a. TheETEincludesthetimetoevacuate90percentand100 Yes Table71andTable72
percentofthetotalpermanentresidentandtransient
population.
- b. Terminationcriteriaforthe100percentETEarediscussed,if N/A 100percentETEisbasedonthetimethe
notbasedonthetimethelastvehicleexitstheevacuation lastvehicleexitstheevacuationzone.
zone.
- c. TheETEfor100percentofthegeneralpublicincludesall Yes Section5.4.1-truncatingsurveydatato
membersofthegeneralpublic.Anyreductionsortruncated eliminatestatisticaloutliers
dataisexplained. Table72-100thpercentileETEfor
generalpopulation
- d. Tablesareprovidedforthe90and100percentETEssimilarto Yes Table73andTable74
Table43,ETEsforaStagedEvacuation,andTable44,ETEs
foraKeyholeEvacuation.
- e. ETEsareprovidedforthe100percentevacuationofspecial Yes Section8
facilities,transitdependent,andschoolpopulations.
5.0OtherConsiderations
5.1DevelopmentofTrafficControlPlans
- a. Informationthatresponsibleauthoritieshaveapprovedthe Yes Section9,AppendixG
trafficcontrolplanusedintheanalysisarediscussed.
- b. Adjustmentsoradditionstothetrafficcontrolplanthataffect Yes Section9,AppendixG
theETEisprovided.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N15 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0
Addressedin
NRCReviewCriteria ETEAnalysis Comments
(Yes/No/NA)
5.2EnhancementsinEvacuationTime
- a. Theresultsofassessmentsforenhancingevacuationsare Yes AppendixM
provided.
5.3StateandLocalReview
- a. Alistofagenciescontactedisprovidedandtheextentof Yes Table11
interactionwiththeseagenciesisdiscussed.
- b. Informationisprovidedonanyunresolvedissuesthatmay Yes ResultsoftheETEstudywereformally
affecttheETE. presentedtostateandlocalagenciesat
thefinalprojectmeeting.Commentson
thedraftreportwereprovidedandwere
addressedinthefinalreport.Thereare
nounresolvedissues.
5.4ReviewsandUpdates
- a. ThecriteriaforwhenanupdatedETEanalysisisrequiredtobe Yes AppendixM,SectionM.3
performedandsubmittedtotheNRCisdiscussed.
5.4.1ExtremeConditions
- a. TheupdatedETEanalysisreflectstheimpactofEPZconditions N/A ThisETEisbeingupdatedasaresultof
notadequatelyreflectedinthescenariovariations. theavailabilityofUSCensusBureau
decennialcensusdata.
5.5ReceptionCentersandCongregateCareCenter
- a. Amapofcongregatecarecentersandreceptioncentersis Yes Figure103
provided.
PaloVerdeNuclearGeneratingStation N16 KLDEngineering,P.C.
EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.0