ML19347A659

Forwards Midland Intervenors' Exhibits 17-20 Re Domestic Average Use,Estimate of Dow Electric Demand & Energy Consumption, & Industrial & Commercial Sales Growth.Source Is P Bickel Matl from 770121 Hearing.Related Correspondence

ML19347A659
Person / Time
Site:	Midland
Issue date:	01/25/1977
From:	Bartelman C ISHAM, LINCOLN & BEALE
To:	Coufal F, Leeds J, Luebke E Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel
References
NUDOCS 8007310564
Download: ML19347A659 (5)

Text

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GEOmCC w. CILLMC# DAMES a. FLETCMgm fMOM AS OmaOY avam ALEMANOCm MCMMCvtm mostm?E. GANJA AeuL w.SCMnOCOCm MAmyMA g.OsSSS DavtO M. S*CCTom orCouMStb pCTNALCO P. GLOVER D AVIO M. STAML paul P. MAM2WN Mama M. vimSM50 CMai AftNC Men.MEHugv gm aCaget M.wMttLtm DONALO 9. MeLUKEm RON ALO G. *AMa ntN 500.& E E M ~ 5M January 25, 1977 Dr. J. Venn Leeds, Jr., Esquire Dr. Emmeth A. Luebke 10807 Atwell Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel Houston, Texas 77096 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D. C. 20555 Frederic J. Coufal, Esquire, Chairman Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D. C. 20555 Gentlemen:

We have copied and are producing for your convenience documents marked for identification as Midland Intervenors Exhibits 17, 18, 19, 20.

Tha source of the original documents is Consumers Power Company witness Phillip Bickel's back-up materials used at the Midland hearing on Jcnuary 21, 1977.

Respectfully, W h. .  ;

Cary A. Bartelman .

One_of the Attorneys d

m For Consumers Power Company

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S RESIDENTIAL DOMESTIC AVERAGE USE Projecticn. - 2% mn==1 growth-

. Historic Rate l+% =n==1 growth.(during 1960s)

Back-up'for 24 growth rate Saturation Study (JECliner) Pre-embargo study indicated residential growth slowing to approxi:nately 2 5%

Incredsing efficiency of appliances'- complex, replacement of modern and old Conservation and price clasticity. Cli=er studies since embargo observed actual effeet ,,

Judgment of Energy Forecast Executive Review Committee I

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'ffl ESTI7&TE OF DoW C:f?i4TCAL CC!a?A*T'S' ELECTRIC DE!MI!D- A!.7 EIERGY C0;;GU:?2IO!I Midland Complex

. 1973 1985

.on Dow Generation on Const:=ers Power Total Ymt tG

• i.:.ih g* t.;in d*  :.Mh 1973- 120 982,938 81 370,062- 172 1,353,000 197h 106 860,600 100 558,23o 178 1,418,830 1975 85 -657,000 85 463,900 144 1,12o,9c0 1976', t u 7.s) '

83 648,2co 90 462,000 140 1,no,200 1977 83 683,300 71 432,000' 149 1,n5,300 F

1978 83 683,300 85 h83,000 157 1,166,300 1979 80 630,700. 100 567,oco 166 1,197,700 F

s 1980 So 630,700 n5 651,000 175 1,281,700-1981 75 '595,700 130 742,000 185 1,337,700 1982F ** ho 315,hoo 175 1,o93,000 195 1,408,400 -

I 1983 ++ 1,463,000 190 - 190 1,463,0co F

-198h ** 1,h63,000 190- 190 1,h63,000 1985 ** - -

190 1,463,cco 190 1,h63,0co -

• Th2.Dow generction und Consumers Power demands are noncoincident peck

' d;= ands. - The. sum of these de=nnds will not' equal the total derand

shown.

1-GA-Th2 estit:.ates for these years assume that Midland #2.will be'in ec=:ercial operaticn tiarch 1981 and Midland #1:in 'cc==ercial operation March 1982.

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,. f$. Ad COMMERCT.AL SAIZS GROWTH RATE Kistoric Rste: 9%[yr 1952 - 1973 :(See attached graph) 1974- - -0.5% change, 1975 .

-- 3 9% growth 11976 Pr= W e**y - Approximately 3 9% growth.

Projectedpost1977growthrate-5.5%-

BASIS FOR PROJECTED 5 54 GROWTH RA_TE

'l. Conservation and price els.sticity

2. Eigh saturation of lighting and air conditiening. (Prior to 1973 it-it was becoming obvious that commercial lighting upgrading and air

. conditioning additions were reaching a high level and were slowing down. Thus, a' decreasing growth rate aas projected even before the "EnergyCrisis".)-

3 Analyses of commercial sales by SIC codes

4. Regression analysis using residential and iriustrial kWh sales as the independent variables..

5. As an offsetting factor, expected shortages of alterne.te fuels.

This w'" tend to keep commercial sales higher than they might otherwise be.

The Energy Forecast Executive Review Cor::mittee has adopted 5.5% as the projected growth sate based on the above factors. Factors such as price elasticity have'not been specifically quantified.-

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' The Committee has been reducing this ce=mercial growth figure startir4 in October, 1973, based on an anticipated slowdown in commereial -

construction.

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