ML19330B602
| ML19330B602 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Limerick  |
| Issue date: | 07/31/1980 |
| From: | Berkley J, Chang Li, Naft B NUS CORP. |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19330B601 | List: |
| References | |
| NUS-3552, NUDOCS 8008050167 | |
| Download: ML19330B602 (70) | |
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LIMERICK NUCLEAR GENERATING STATICN PRELIMINARY EVACUATICN .. TIME ESTIMATES Prepared for
. . . PEILADEL2EIA ELEC"3IC CCMPANY 1
l by c. 1. J. E. Berkley, Jr. T' C. 7. Li . l 5 L .. F. M. Quinn i 1
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July 1980 l I l c. c- Approved: , N . d.N.Naft, Manager Licensing and Tecnnology i
.s NUS CORPCRATICN i .' 4 Research Place k _. Rockville, Maryland 20850 -
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l 1 r s TABLE CF CCNTE'ITS Section and Title i
.' Pace No.
a - 4 1 1 l LIST CF TABLIS iii ) LIST CF FIGURES iv : 1 l i 1.O INTRCDUCTICU AND SUM 2C.2? l-1 : 1 1.1 Introduction 1-1 l 1.2 S u:mnarv l-5 1 2.O TEE 10-MILE DiERGENCE PLANNING ZONE (EPZ) 2-1 l i 2.1 General Descriction and Site Location 2-1 l
- 2. 2 Use of Lands and ' daters in the 10-Mile IPZ 2-5 2.3 Poculation within the Emercencv Planninc Zone 2-5
- 2. 4 Meteorolocv 2-15 2.5 Emergencv Planninc Zone Sectors 2-17
- 2. 6 References 2-19 l 1
3.0 METECDOLCGI 3-1 l 3.1 Evacation Time Estimates 3-1 I 3.2 Po'culation of the Sectors of the EPZ 3-2 l 1 3.3 Evacuation Routes and Highway Cacacities 3-8 3.4 Evacuation Eichway Load Distribution 3-13 3.5 Evacuation Times 3-18 3.6 Adverse Weather 3-24 3.7 References 3-27 l 4.0 SPECIAL FACILITIES 4-1 4.1 Graterford Prison 4-1 4.'2 Pottstown Memorial Medical Center 4-3 4.3 Nursinc Eemes 4-6 4.4 Pennhurst Center 4-10 1 1 ii NUS CCFFCFA T"CN
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- LIST OF TA3LES Table :
No. -: Title f Pace No. 1.1-1 Su= mary o f Evacuation-Time Es timates 1-2 2.3-1 Montgomery County Population within EP: 2-12 2.3.2 Chester County Population within EP2 2-13 2.3.3 Berks County Population within EPZ , 2-14 2.4-1 Monthly Snowf all 2-16 3.2-1 Population 3-3 3.4-1 Evacuation Times by Routes--NNW Secto r 3-14
- 3.4-2 Evacuation Times bv Routes--E Sector 3-15 3.4-3 Evacuation Times by Routes--S Sector 3-16 3.4-4 Evacuation Times by Routes--WSW Secto r '3-17 3.5-1 Basic Evacuation Data - Transportation 3-21 4.2-1 List of Eospitals within the EPZ 4-5 4 . 3 - 1. Nursing Ecce Facilities within the EP2 4-9 I
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l l iii 1 1 NUS CCFFCRAECN 1 1
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t LIST OF FIGURES Figure . . No. I: Title .- Pace No. 1.1-1 Limerick 10-mile Emergency Popularien 1-3 Zone Sectors 2.2-1 Site Lccation Map 2-4 i 3.2-1 Population Distributien by Sec:crs 3-5
. 3.2-2 Populatien Distribution.by Tcwnship 3-6 3.2-3 Vehicle Distributica 3-8 3.3-1 Evacuaticn acutes in mr4 Sector 3-9
- 3. 3-2' Evacua~ ion Routes in E Sector 3-10 3.3-3 kvacuarion acutes in 5 Sector 3-11 3.3-4 Evacuation Routes in WSW Sector 3-12 3.5-1 Notification Time and Highway McVement 3-22 Time 3.5-2 Evacuaticn Times by Sector 3-23 3.6-1 . Notification Time and Highway Movement 3-25 Time in Adverse Weather 3.6-2 Evacuation Time in Adverse Weather 3-26 4.4-1 Pennhurst Center Evacuee Leading Points 4-12 l
l 1 i l 1 l I iv NUS CCAi:C AATICN 1 1 l
- -- --. - ~ - - . _ , . ~ . .
f l.0 INTRODUCTION AND
SUMMARY
1.1 Introduction This report is a responsb to a generic letter from the NRC Emergency Preparedness Task Group to Philadelphia Electric Company (PECO) dated D5cember 26, 1979. The NRC letter requests a preliminary estimate of the time required to evacuate a 10-mile radius from the Limerick plant. At the outset it must be recognized that a comprehensive analysis of the factors requiring population evacuation as a result of an assumed hazard at the Limerick Nuclear Station cannot be completed until the final NRC/ FEMA position is available, and the plans of the appropriate 3 State and local agencies developed thereon. Accordingly, for the purpose of this preliminary estimate, it is necessary to make certain assumptions based upon generic information. For example, it is well recognized that there is little definitive data on traffic flow patterns in emergency conditions. The best study, and the one which is most current, is the Transportation Research Circular No. 212,--/ January 1980, published by the Transportation Research Board, the National Academy of Sciences. The circular itself recognizes the paucity of data. We wish to emphasize that the Philadelphia Electric Company, of course, will update this information when the above conditions are satisfied and provide it in compliance with Appendix E. __/ The circular supplements the Highway Capacity Manual of the NAS, Special Report 87, 1965.
No stendcrd modolo for making the requestod preliminary estimates ara currently provided by the NRC. We have, however, consulted the avail-able data provided by the NRC and FEMA, particularly NUREG-0654,
~
FEMA Rep. 1, and NUREG-0660. In preparing the analysis, NUS first consulted the available literature, particularly that listed in refer-ences to 3.7 infra. It also reviewed the existing demographic informa-tion, including that filed in the construction pe_m t phase of this proceeding, and the updating of this caterial being prepared for sub-mission in the Environmental Report, operating license stage for'the Limerick facility. NUS also performed an analysis of evacuation times from the various sectors, using highway capacity information obtained from the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission, the Berks County Planning Commission, and techniques obtained from the 1965 U.S. Highway capacity Manual, and the Pennsylvania Department of Transportation. NUS then conducted an on-site investigation and int'erviewed the appro-priate State and local officials for their input and comments. --/ Finally, NUS conducted an aerial inspection of the area and drove over some of the indicated evacuation routes. A summary of the evacuation-time estimates is presented in Table 1.1-1. A composite map of the area around the station is presented in Figure 1.1-1. The 2 , 5, and 10-mile sectors within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ), population centers, and evacuation routes are chown on this figure. More detailed maps for each sector are provided in the section on evacuation routes and highway capacities. __/ All of the comments provided by these officials have been incor-
-porated in this report to the extent feasible at this time.
Obviously,-all of these matters will be finally resolved in the final emergency plan. 1-2 i i I
t I
- TABLE 1.1-1 EVACUATICN TIME ESTIMATES SY SECTOR (Ecurs)
Section i Highway Movemer.: Total and Weather No ti'f ic a t io n 0-2 Miles 4
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1 2 miW t o i - e.
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WSW Foul . l.25 1.25 2.50 NNW 3 oc 3 9: e 20 e 1l33 E35 3.50 S l.25 1.25 2.50 WSW 0-5 Miles Fair 3 6 NNW 3 3 6 3 ' E ' 6 3 3 S 6 3 3 WSW Foul r 3.75 3.75 7.50 l NNW 3. -/: e . : u-i . 3. 5 c 3.75
/
3.75 7.50 5 3.75 7.50 WSW 3.75 0-10 Miles-Fai: 4 9 5 NNW 4 9 5 E 4 9 5 5 3 8 5 WSi Foul 6.25 5 11.25 NNW 11.25 E 6.25 5 11.25 s 6.25 5 10 6.25 3.75 - WSW 1-3 NUS CORPC;:ATICN
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Th?'NRC letttr rcqusatcd octimates for the EPZ in a 10-mile radius divided into 10 geometric sectors around the plant. Since the station is on the Schuylkill River, the sectors were modified slightly to accommodate local preli inary evacuation p anning efforts. After receipt of the NRC letter, Philadelphia Electric Company and NUS representatives met with officials from Montgomery and Chester counties to discuss evacuation considerations relative to the NRC letter. A PECO onsite representative also met with the Berks County Emergency Managemee t Agency (EM71) and a regional Pennsylvania Emergency Manage-ment Agency (PEMA) official. During the course of this study, PECO and NUS representatives discussed emergency planning with various institutional and public officials. A draft of this report was presented and discussed at a meeting among PECO,. NUS, PEMA, Montgomery County, Chester County, Berks County, and the Pennsylvania State Police. Comments from these organizations were solicited. As noted above, these ecmments have been incorporated herein to the extent possible at this time. 5
l'. C Su=marv The total evacuation-time estimate for the entire 10-mile, 173,704 population is 9 hours in fair weather conditions and 11 hours and i 15 minutes in adverse weather conditions.' These estimates are rooted in conservative assumptions and procedures including the rounding of fractions to the next higher whole number. For instance, in Perkiomen where the actual computed maximum local highway movement time is 3.8 hours, the estimate is rounded to 4 hour's. Adverse weather estimates were then computed using these rounded-off local highway movement times. This conservatism is employed by the district traffic engineer who performed the evacuation time estimate for the Three Mile Island Generating Station EPZ. Where other pro-cedures or assumptions were found to be more conservative than those cmployed at Three Mile Island, those assumptions were used, such as certain assumptions regarding highway capacities. 'These are dis-cussed in Section 3.0 Methodology. A future consideration in the Limerick EPZ is the fact that these estimates are based on existing highway systems even though the Schuylkill Expressway leg to Pottstown has just be rescheduled for completion _in 1983 instead of 1985. Parts of the expressway are already open but were not used in forming these estimates. The Schuylkill Expressway will connect the Pottstown bypass to the Betzwood Bridge, thus providing a high-capacity modern expressway linking one of the most time consuming sectors in the Limerick EPZ with major highways.outside the EPZ, thus reducing the evacuation time in that sector. Other conservative methods, such as the cal-culations for the number of vehicles, are discussed in Section 3.0, 1-6 g --a i
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Me thodolo gy . This section also provides all evacuation-time estimates and specific highway-capacity and evacuation-
- o u te in fo rm a t _, o n. ; -
Section 2.0 is a description o f the 10-mile IP':, including a general description, land use, population by counties and sectors, meteorology, and a discussion on the way sectors were drawn. Section 4.0 discusses the evacuation of a sample special f acility f rom each' o f four dif ferent kinds of special facil-4 i.s 4.. .a.e e.,e. 1-7 NUS CCA1 C;:A'MC N
r e 2.0 THE.10-MILE EMERGENCY PLANNING IONE 2.1 General Description and Site Location The 10-mile Emergency Planning Zone (EPI) of the Limerick Generating Station is about 300 square miles, reaching into Montgomery, Chester, and Berks counties in southeastern Pennsylvania. The city limit of Philadelphia is 20.7 miles from the plant site and 10.7 miles from the 10-mile EPI boundary. The northwestern boundary of the 10-mile EPZ is approximately 8 miles from the eastern boundary of the City of Reading. The Allentown, Bethlehem, and Easton popu-4 (1) lation center is 16 miles north of the EPZ. Overall, the 10-mile EPZ is rural and open, with suburban development. There are many large forests and hundreds of smaller clusters of woodlands. The predominant land use category is agricultural. The Delaware Valley Regional Planning' Commission (DVRPC) estimates the ratio of available land to total usable land to be over 75% for Montgomery County and between 60% to 74.9% for the Chester County . portions of this. region. Available land is land that is not in_some urban use, whereas usable land is available land that excludes swamps, water, streambeds, and steep hills. The bulk of the residential development is concentrated in urban _ areas; however, most of the major and secondary roads surrounding these areas are developing suburban com-munities. 2-1
t 2.1.1 Tococrach? of the Emercencv Planninc Zone The topography with(n a 10-mile radius 5f the Limerick site is varied. Elevatic'ns range f:cm 80 fee t above mean sea level on the eastern boundary o f the 10-mile radius at the confluence of the Schuylkill River and the Perkiomen Creek to 1,030 feet on the western boundary just west of Soye: town Borough. The topography within a 5-mile radius of the Limerick site can be' generally characterized as a gently rolling to hilly land f o rm, dissected by the Schuylkill River, strea= valleys, and runs leading into the Schuylkill River. There is an ample number'of bridges crossing the Schuylkill River. Vehicle capacities at these crossings were examined specifi-cally, and are re flec ted in the first time estimate. Most of these stream valleys are located below the 200-foot eleva-tion. . The relative position of these rolling hills to the Schuyl-kill floodplain varies within the 5-mile radius. In the , vicinity of the Limerick site, the hills fall rather sharply I to a narrow floodplain on the north side of the Schuylkill River. In contrast, the other side the river has a flood-plain nearly 0.5 mile in width. This situation is typical as the Schuylkill River vends its way through the area. Most of the land within the 5-mile radius lies between 200 and 400 feet in elevation. There are seven isolated hills located in this 5-mile radius--five to the north and two 1 to the south located' generally 3 to 4 miles from the site. These hills are not seen as posing a barrier to evacuation. i Most of the land within this 5-mile radius slopes toward , the'Schuylkill River and the Limerick site. j i l i i l i 2-2 l Num w rm-%e AT!CN 4 l
$1 opes in this area are generally under 10% in grade, and
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therefore are not expected to be a limiting factor in vehicle movement away from the plant. Similar topographic charac-teristics can be fouhd west and northwe'st in the 5- to 10-mile ring, although the hills are higher in elevation and steeper. In the 5- to 10-mile ring south of the site, elevations reach 800 feet in height with most land located between 400 to 600 feet. 2.1.2 Site-Location The Limerick Generating Station is on a 595-acre site that extends on both sides of the Schuylkill River into two counties and three townships in southeastern Pennsylvania. The plant itself is sited in Limerick Township of Montgomery County. The land portion of the site is 595 acres and the Schuylkill River, which traverses the site, is the boundary between Montgomery and Chester counties. The boundary of the closest and largest population center, the Borough of Pottstown, is 1.7 miles to the west northwest. Continuing in this direction, the limits of the Borough of Stowe are approxi-mately 4.5 miles from the plant. Southeast of the site, the limits of the Borough of Royersford are approxir.ately 3.4 miles away and the boundary of Spring City is approxi-mately 3.1 miles from the~ plant. Phoenixville is approxi-mately 7.1 miles from the plant, and the city limits of Philadelphia are approximately 20.7 miles away from the plant. 2-3
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2.2 Use of Lands and Waters in the 10-Mile EPI The general land use character of the area within 5 miles of the Limerick sitefis rural and subur,b'an and contains one major forest, located in northern Limerick and Lower Pottsgrove townships. - The predominant land use category within the 10-mile radius is agricultural. The agricultural industry in the vicinity of the Limerick site consists mainly of sma.1 independen't farms producing small amounts of agricultural goods for local distribution. An agricultural land use survey in the vicinity of Limerick was performed in early 1976. This survey used data from a doo.-to-door survey of farmers within 5 miles of the site, and published agricultural data for the area from 5 to 50 miles. The State of Pennsyl-vania had lost about 170,000 acres of farm land per year from 1960 through 1974. The urban development and population concentration near Limerick lie outside a 2-mile ring and, historically, have been oriented along the Schuylkill River, with suburban growth spilling out over municipal boundaries. Po tts town Borough, with a 1977 population of 25,739, is the largest municipality within the 10-mile radius. Industrial operations, for the most part, are clustered along the Schuylkill River, adjacent to rail lines, in the urban areas. The major industrial concentration is 2-5
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'in tha Wost Pottsgrove, Pottstown, Lower Pottsgrove section of the Schuylkill River. Both Royersford and Spring City,
' located _on opposite sides of the Schuylkill River, have
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a river-oriented indnstrial pattern. Phoenixville's indus-trial pattern parallels French Creek. Other industrial locations are found in smaller urban centers such as Boyer-town, Collegeville, Trappe, East Coventry Township, and Linfield just east of the site. There are 91 industries with ten or more ecployees within 5 miles of Limerick Generating Station, with a total work population of approximately 13,254. Nineteen of these industries are across the Schuylkill in Chester County and represent approximately 2,119 employees. There are no major parks or recreational areas w thin 5 miles of the Limerick site. However, the Schuylkill River downstream of the site is utilized for recreational boating and fishing. The Hopewell Village National Historic Site is cut by the 10-mile radius southwest of the plant. Valley Forge State Park is approximately 1 mile beyond the 10-mile EPZ limit. The 5-mile area contains the Eastern State Game Farm and ' State Game Refuge. The Eastern State Game Farm raised and-released 20,000 pheasants between July 1, 1975 and June 30, 1976. No other wildlife is raised or released
.from.this facility.
2-6
Thoro is no other designated hunting area. However, small. game hunting is extensively' pursued in almost all areas
-except where prohibited by Pennsylvania . law.
The Countryside Swim Club is located approximately 1 mile from'the site. Estimated average daily attendance during the swimming season is 400 people; it is likely that people at' recreational sport siter, such as swimming pools, came. in cars and w'ould return h,me in cars parked at the site. There is no commercial fishing er she11 fishing industry throughout the. entire length of the Schuylkill River. Furthermore, as a result of the river's physical restraints, , future commercial fishing development is not anticipated. The river downstream of the Limerick site is used-for recreational boating and fishing. There are eight sites that are presently accessible for these purposes, and eight other potential downstream recreational areas within the 10-mile EPZ. Vincent Dam is the only boating recreation site.within 2 miles of the site, or 3.3 river miles. 2-7 m
2.3 Population within the Emergency Planning Zone The most recent figure for total population within the 10-mile radius extending into all three. counties is 173,704. t l Populations within the 2 , 5, and 10-mile rings are as follows: 0 to 2 miles 3,932 2 to 5 miles 58,378 5 to 10 miles 109.394 Total 173,704 The source for the 2- to 5-mile population data is the (2) Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC). The population data for the 5- to 10-mile ring comes from two sources. All Montgomery and Chester county data come from the DVRPC. Berks County data come from the 1970 U.S. Census. The DVRPC does not keep data on Berks County because of jurisdictional limitations. The Berks County Planning Commission supplied 1970 U.S. Census data. The Berks County townships within the 10-mile EPZ lie outside the 5-mile limit. Only portions of each county are within the 10-mile radius. For the purpose of this study, the population within the , EPZ on a county basis is as follows: Montgomery County 100,328 Chester County 53,276 Berks County 20,100 Total 173,704 2-8
Population densities are greatest along the Schuylkill River where the largest boroughs in the IPZ occur. The Borough of Pottstow?. is the la:ces: pop'ula: ion cente within the entire EPZ .with a popula:icn of 25,739, according to 1977 data f:cm the Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission (DVRPC) . Located nor thwest of the plant, the closest boundary of the borough is 1.7 miles away and the most distant borough boundary is approximately 4.2 miles away. Most of the town area is 3 miles f:cm the plant. . To the southeast, Roye:sford Borough, Montgomery County, and Spring City, Chester County, are inside the 5-mile limit with populations of 4,932, and 3,736, respectively. Phoenix-ville, the only other large population center within the 10-mile EPZ, has a population of 14,880. Where the 10-mile I?Z cuts through a population.. center, the inhabitants of those communities are included in the evacuation esthnates. This holds true for population centers such as Green Lane and Sumneytown northeast of the plant, Monocacy Station to the northwest, and the Lower Providence area along the Schuylkill River and Perkio-men Creek. The ten evacuation sectors used in this report are discussed in detail in the Emergency Planning Zone Sectors section. Growth in Montgomery County as a whole appears to have been leveling off. The DVRFC shows a 1970 population of 624,000 and projects an increase of 26,000 to a new total of 650,000 in 1990. Rural Chester County had a 1970 population of 278,000 and the DVRPC projects a total population of 320,000 in 1990, an increase of 42,000 during 2-9 NUS CC A;:C RA'MCN m_ '
the 20-year period. The 1977 average family sizes for the (3) Montgomery, Chester, arid Berks counties are 3.38, 3.16, (4) and 3.0, respectively. However, for e.stimating purposes, 3.0 was used for air counties, thus reddering a more conser-vative approach in the determination of the num'oer of vehicles (refer to Section 3.0, Methodology). 2-10
9 TABLE 2.3-1 MONTGCMERY CCUMTY PCPCLATICM
.- WITEIN IPZ* .-
Munici=ality Po culatio n Pottstown Borough 25,739 Lower Pottsgrove Township 6,681 Limerick Township 5,441 Royersford Borough 4,932 Upper Pottsgrove Township 2,589 Wes: Pottsgrove Township 4,015 Douglass Township 4,950 New Hanover Township 4,004 Upper Frederick Township 1,409 Lower Frederick T'ownship 2,436 Green Lane Borough 685 Upper Salford Township 1,800 Schwenksville Borough 810 Perkiomen Township 2,661 Skippack Township 5,131 Upper Providence Township 9,199 Trappe Borough 1,959 Collegeville Borough 3,281 Lower P:cvidence Township (19,833 x 0.5**) = 9,917 Lower Salford Township (3,147 x 0.33**) = 2,689 TOTAL 100,328
- From DVRFC, 1977 Data Bank Report, Reference 2.
** Fraction indicates the amount of the tow ns h ip ' s population to be within the Limerick EPZ.
2-11 NUS CC AFC AA ;*iCN
E i s TABLZ 2.3-2 CHESTER COUNTY POPULATICM i WITRIN EPZ* .~ i . Municioality Pooulation North Covenrry 7,142 East Coventry 3,774 South Coventry 1,063 Warwick 1,468 East Nant=eal 944 East Vincent 4,226 Wert Vincent 1,866 East Pikeland 4,346 West Pikeland 1,697 Schuylkill 5,762 Phoenixville 14,880 , Charlestown 2,172 Upper Uwchlan(1,353x0.ll**) = 150 Spring City 3,786 TOTAL 53,276
- Population within 10-mile radius frcm DVRPC, 1977 Data Bank.Hepo:t,
- Reference 2.
** Fraction indicates the a=o un t o f the township's population es timated r to be within the Limerick EPZ.
k I L r L L 2'-12 NUS CCFPCFA NCN r , _. _ _ . ___ .- .. - .
t-9 o TABLZ 2.3-3 3ERKS CCCNTY POPULATICN r WITHIN EPZ* - Municipaliti Poculatio n Celebrockdale 3,034 Washing ton ( 2,273 x 0. 25 ** ) ,= 568 Douglass , 2,944 Earl (2,290 x 0.5**) = 1,146 Amity 5,648 Union 2,332 Soyertown 4.428 TOTAL 20,100
- Population within 10-mile radius, 1970 Census Data f:cm Berks County Planning Commission, Reference 4.
** Fractions indicate the amount of the tow ns h ip ' s population estimated to be within the Limerick reu.
~.
2-13 NUS CC;:;:CRATICN
*2 . 4 Matoorology s
The climate of Montgomery and Chester counties and the southeastern portion;;of Berks County is- characteri:ed by warm,'hdmid-summers, and moderately cold winters. The average temperature of the three-county area is approxi-mately 55*F. Temperatures below 0*F and above 100*F are rare; average daily maximum temperatures range from 87'F in July to 40*F in January, and average daily minimum temperatures range from 23*F in January and February to 65'F in July and August. The average annual precipitation is 45 inches and is rather uniformly distributed throughout the year, with only small differences between the wettest and driest months. These weather conditions are due in large measure to the protection given.by the Allegheny Mountains to the west. For information on normal and maximum monthly snowfalls and greatest 24-hour snowfalls at Reading and in Phila-delphia, refer to Table 2.4-1. 2-14
1-
. - TABLZ 2.4-1 MONTEL? SNCWFALL 1931 throuch 1967*
(In Inenes) . At Philadelphia At Reading International Air or Air ort No rmal Maximum No rmal Maximum Month 5.6 19.7 8.4 24.3 January 5.7 17.8 8.8 21.0 February March 4.1 13.4 5.5 21.5 0.1 3.0 0.4 4.8 April T** T T T May June July August September --- --- T T T T October November 0.8 8.8 1.1 11.5 4.2 17.5 6.4 27.1 December TOTAL 20.5 30.6
- From applicant's Environmental Report--Construction Pe rmit S tage , (Revised), Limerick Generating S tation, Philadelphia Electric Company, May 1972.
** Trace of precipitation.
NOTE: Readings's greatest sncvf all: Monthly: 27.1 inches, December 1966 24-Ecurs: 18.7 inches, February 1958 Philadelphia's greatest snowfall: Monthly: 31.5 inches, February 1899 24-Ecurs: 21.0 inches, December 1909 2-15 NUS CCFPCRATCN 1 a
2.3 Imercencv P1'anninc Zone sectors The NRC request see ks.-.* a f o rna containing two 150-sectors at 2 miles, fou 90-s'ectors at 5 miles, and four 90-sectors at 10 miles. The request also suggests that pcpulation centers be kept intac: " to the ex tent practical." In the Limerick I?Z, the Schuylkill River is the predominant topographical feature and the boundary between Montgomery and Chester counties. As such, it is an important factor in local evacuation planning. The only river crossings used in the evacuation plan are the three crossings in Potts-town that are used to evacuate about 40% of the pcpulation of pottstown on Eighway 422. This limited access highway returns to the north bank of the Schuylkill River in Berks County. Therefore, for this report, the NRC sector f o rma t. f o r evacuation time estimates has been modified to comply with this_ local evacuation planning approach. In doing so, the resulting sectors divide into practical land areas which conform to the planning needs of the Limerick I?:. Refer to Figure 1.1-1 in the sum =ary of this report and to the individual-sector maps in the methodology section for details of evacuation routes in each sector. In doing so, the resulting sectors represent practical and manageable land areas that conform to the planning needs o f the Limerick EPZ. The sectors are approximate designations, not crisply defined boundaries which theoreti-cians may use to divide the area for evacuation purposes. 2-16 L NUS C=FFCFATICN ' ~
9 For these reasons , the sect.::s and the populations within them are defined best by the townships o.f which they are composed. With thisfunderstanding, the' sector maps in this report may be applied realistically. For the detailed breakdown of populations and cars by sector, refer to the methodology section of this report. Whe re the 10-mile limit is seen to divide populated areas, population estimates for those sectors were adjusted to include those areas. Places falling into this category include Washington in the north and parts of Lower
?:ovidence Township.
k
- 2'-17 NUS CC;:F:C AATICN t- -
n
t 2.6 Rnfornncos
- 1. Final Environmental Statement Related to the Proposed Limerick Gener$.tinc Station Units i and 2, Philadelphia Electric Coatpany, Docket Numbers 50-352 and 50-353, United States Atomic Energy Cc= mission, Directorate of Licensing, 1973.
- 2. "1977 Data 3ank for Transportation Planning," Delaware Valley Planning Commission, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, October 1979. .
- 3. Personal Communication between Jack Berkley, MUS Corporation and Don Shanis, DVRFC, February 27, 1980.
- 4. Berks County Data Scok, Berks County Planning Commis-sion, Reading, Pennsylvania, June 1979.
M t c 2'-18 NL!S CCi:. C;:ATICN j 'r
, _s -
. - - . - _. es
3 . 0' XETHOCOLCGT 3.1 Evacuation Time Istimates Portinent census data and highway capacity 15 formation voro given to NUS by the Delaware Valley Regional Planning and Berks County Planning C:mmission Commission (DVRPC) information is used to determine highway (3CPC). This movcment times f rom the various sectors. (' ) The notification times are based on a previcus study - which medeled the evacuacion time as the sum of a delay The delay time, which time and an actual travel time. was evaluated f:c= statistical data,( 2) is used as the no tification time in this recort. is the sum of the longest highway The evacuation time movement time in a sector and the notification time. . 3-1 NUS CC A;:CFt TICN
, , 3.2 Population of'the. Sectors of the E?Z - The populations of each sector are list,ed in Table 3.2.1 and shown graphically in Figure 3.2-1.-~ Other sectors in the figure are defined by the appropriate townships and portions thereof as shown in Table 3.2-1. The populations of each township are listed in Tables 2.3-1, 2.3-2, and 2.3-3, and Figure 3.2-2. Cars The number of. vehicles is assumed to be the same as the number of households. The number of people per household is assumed to be three. The number of vehicles of each township is shown graphically in Figure 3.2-3. I
\
2 l v
TA3LZ 3.2-1 POPULATICM
~
Sector - Citv/Townshio - Poculation 2-Mile Radius NNW ' E Limerick (1,667)" 3,894 Lower Pottsgrove (2,227)** WSW + 5 East Coventry (2,038)*** 2,038 2- to 5-Mile Radius E Limerick (3,774)* 8,706 Royersford NNW Lower Pottsg cve (4,454)** 32,782 Upper Pottsgrove Po t ts town S Spring City 8,012 East Vincent . Won -ast Coventry (1,736)*** 8,878 North Coventry 5- to 10-Mile Rad ius E Upper Providence 41,977 Lower Providence Collegeville Trappe Skippack Upper Salford Lower Salford Upper Frederick Lower Frederick . Schwenksville Perkiomen Greenlane
- Out of to tal o f 5,4 41.
- ** Out o f toal o f 6,681.
*** Cut of to tal o f 3,774.
t 3-3 NUS CC;::PCRA MCN
' TABLE 3. 2-1 (Continued)
,. PCPULATION .
a . Sector Citv/Townshi Poculation 5- te 10-Mile Rad ius (Continued) NNW New Eanover 30,737 Douglass (Montgomery) Douglass (Serks) West Pottsgrove A:aity Colebrockdale Zarl Boye r town Washing to n S West Vincent 30,873 East Pikeland West Pikeland Schuylkill Phoeni:cville Charlestown Upper Uwchlan WSW Union 5,807 Warwick 2 South Coventry East NantCeal i i i {- t 4 t 1 3-4 NUSCCAFCRATCN
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' 3894 }
8,706 43 gy, 2,023 . 8,878 5,807 8,012 WSW 30,873 - 1 S Figure 3,2_3 CMI don Distribution by Sec:cn
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.- 3.3 Evacuation Routes and Highway Canacities The highway capacity data is based on the DVRPC 1972 Route and Intersection Inventory. (4)
Level E ca acity, as defined therein, is the assumed level of service for these estimates. This capacity is defined as the " maximum number of vehicles which has a reasonable expectation of passing over a given roadway during a given time period under prevailing roadway and traffic conditions ." The evacuation routes of each sector are shown in Figures 3.3-1, 3.3-2, 3.3-3, and 3.3-4 The routes are designated with a letter followed by a two-digit number. The letters N, E, S, and W represent the sectors NNW, E,S, and WSW, respectively. The two-digit numbers are assigned as route reference numbers for this report. For each proposed evacuation route, the figures on each cap reflect the number of vehicles which will pass a given point on that road in the number of hours designated in parentheses. In the Pottstown area, the vehicles-per-hour values provided by the DVRPC were used directly. For the other areas in the 10 mile zone, a conservative capacity of 700 vehicles per hour was used, except in the Schuylkill and Charlestown Townships where only a 600 vehicles-per-hour factor was employed. 3-8
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i i 1 3.4 . Evacuation Highway Load Distribution The evacuation highway load distribution is listed in Tables
~
3.4-1 through 3.4-4', and in Figures 3.'3-1 through 3.3-4. The routes have been given temporary designations as core than one Federal or State routes cay be involved. The final emergency plan will, of course, identify these routes in terms of their , current designations. 3-13
( - ( TABLE 3.4-1 FAIR WEATHER EVACUATION TIMES j ' North Northwest Sector i_
.. $ of Total Time * !. Townshio/Borocqh Route Cars 4 Cars (Hours) Remarks **
0-2 Miles l' ' Lower PottsTrove N01 556 556 0.8 (, (556) 0-5 Miles (- Lower Pottsgrove N09 1671 1671 2.4 2227 Total I (1671) Lower Pottsgrove Po tts town N06 4400 4400 2.1 2100 cars /hr (8580) N08 880 880 1.3
; N01 3300 3856 0.9 4200 cars /h'r Upper Pottsgrove N07 863 863 1.3 (863) 0-10 Miles West Pottsgrove NO2 1339 1339 1.6 850 cars /hr (1339)
I Douglass (Berks) NO2 200 1539 2.2 (982) NO3 782 782 1.1 942 4798 1700 cars /hr i} Amity N01 2.9 {; (1883) NO2 942 2481 3.6 New Hanover N08 1335 2215 3.2 l~ (1335) 'I Couglass(Mont.Co.) N07 1650 2513 3.6 (1650)
! Soyertown N04 738 738 1.1 (1476) NOS 738 738 1.1 ;
Colebrookdale N04 1012 1750 2.5 (1012) . Earl NO3 382 1164 1.7 (382)
! Washing to n NOS 190 929 1.4 ,
(190) {
- Time underlined represents longest time in sector.
** Road capacity assumed to be 700 cars /hr except where noted.
1 3-14 l NUS CCP3CP:'r CN l
TABLE 3.4-2
. FAIR WIATIER IVACCATICN TIMES East Sector
! Total-' Time *
# of Townshic/3 crouch Route Cars aCars (Iours)* Remarks **
0-2 Miles Limerick E02 556 556 0.3 (556/1316)
~0-5 Miles Limerick E02 631 1187 1.7 (1258/1816) E03 627 627 0.9
. Royesford E03 1096 1723 2.5 (1644) E10 548 548 0.8 0-10 Miles Upper Providence E10 1534 2082 3.0 (3067) E06 1534 1534 2 . 7. -
Schwenksville E02 270 1457 2.1 (270) Trappe IO6 327 1861 2.7 (653) 207 327 327 0.6 Collegeville E07 1127 1454 2.5 (1127) - Lower Providence E09 1354 1354 2.4 (3306) EOS 1354 1354 2.4 E07 600 2054 3.0 Perkiomen E03 887 2610 3.8 (887) Skippack E05 1711 1711 2.5 (1711) Lower Salford IO4 906 906 1.3 (906) Lower Frederick E01 812 812 1.2 (812) Upper Frederick E01 470 1282 1.9 (470) e Green Lane E01 229 1511 2.2 (229) Upper Salford 702 600 2057 3.0 (600)
-
- Time underlined represents icncest time in sector.
** Road capacity assumed to be 700 cars /hr except where no ted .
~ 3-15 1 L l NUS CCFFCPATCN f._
TABLZ 3.4-3 FAIR WEATHER EVACUATICU TIMES South Sector 5 a of Total.- Time
- Townshic/3 crouch Route Cars iCars (Ecurs) Remarks **
0-2 Miles-East Covenrry 509 340 340 ,0 . 5 See Table 3.4-4 (340/1258) 629 in WSW Sector 0-5 Miles 629 in S Sector Spring C.ty 509 631 971 1.4 1258 East Coventry (1263, S08 632 632 0.9 East. Vincent 508 1409 2041 2.9 (1409) East Coventry 509 289 1260 1.8 S09 joins WO2 ('39/1253) in WSW Secco: 0-10 Miles Phoe nixville 501 992 992 1.4 (4960) S02 992 992 1.4 S03 992 992 1.4 SO4 992 992 1.4 S07 992 992 1.4 _ Schuylkill S01 641 1633 2.8 - 600 cars /hr (1921) S02 641 1633 2.8 600 cars /hr S03 641 1633 2.3 600 cars /hr Charlestown 503 362 1995 3.4 600 cars /hr (724) SO4 362 1354 2.3 600 cars /hr East Pikeland S05 725 725 1.1 (1449) 506 725 725 1.1 West Pikeland SOS 283 1008 1.5 (566) S06 283 1008 1.5 Upper Uwchlan 507 50 1042 1.5 50 out of 451 (50) West Vincent 507 622 1664 2.4 (622)
- Time underlined represents longest time in sector.
** Road capacity assumed to be 700 cars /hr except where noted.
3-16 NLjs CCFPCF4T:CN
p-, TABL2 3.4-4 FAIR WEATHER E*7ACUATICN TIMES West Southwest Sector
# of Totai W e" Townshic/Borouch Route Cars dCars (Ecurs) Remarks **
H 0-2 Miles East Coventry WOS 340 340 0.5 See Table 3.4-3 (340/1258) 629 in WSW Sector 629 in S Sector 1258 East Coventry 0-5 Miles East Coventry WO2 289 1549 2. 2- 1260 from 509 (289/1258) North Coventry WOS 1500 1840 2. 7 (2381) WO3 881 88' 1 3 0-10 Miles Union WO4 778 773 1.1 (778) South Coven ry WO2 355 1904 2.7 (355) > Warwick WO3 490 1371 2.0 (490) East Nantrieal WOl 315 315 0.5 (315)
- Time underlined represents loncest time in sector.
** Road capacity asst =ed to be 700 cars /hr except where noted.
i 3-17 NUS CCFFC AAECN l
3.5 Evacuation Times - 3.5.1 Limerick Evacuation Times The evacuation time for a given sector is the sua of the notification time and the sector highway covement time. The sector highway movement time is the maximum local highway movement eine of each sector, which is underscored in Table 3.4-1. Each sector highway movement time is rounded off to the, next higher whole nt=ber before it is added to the notification tiae. The local highway covement time is the time required to move the accumulated vehicles out of the township on the specified evacuation route. The " notification times," as applied in this study, include notification, preparation, and initial movement times. Notification times are assumed to be 1, 3, and 5 hours for 2 , 5 , and 10-mile radii, respectively. 1 The maxi =um evacuation time is represented by the parenthetical ' number closest to the point where each designated evacuation route crosses the 10-mile perimeter. Hence, the estimated evacuation time represents the most conservative assumptions possible, i.e., I the person who receives notification and initiates movement at the i i last possible moment, so that he is the last person in the traffic ; l flow to utilize the designated evacuation route. Obviously, l therefore, all other persons will have crossed prior thereto. 3-18 l l l
Realistically, it is clear that the existing road network will permit evacuation of all of the population in the 10-mile zone on a much shorter time frame. Moreover,'it is unlikely that notification frames of 3 and 5 hours would be required in an actual situation. Notification is assumed to be achieved by door-to-door contact, radio and television broadcasts, and public address systems including mobile units with loud speakers. Confirmation times were thoroughly explored with the pertinent local officials. The directors of the emergency preparedness agencies for Montgomery, Chester and Berks Counties believe that confirmation can be achieved by some method such as traffic monitoring, but not by a door-to-door check. This method of confirmation does not add to the total evacuation times. A summnry of the notification times and the highway movement times is shown in Figure 3.5-1. When the highway movement times rest in fractions, the fractions are rounded off to the next higher whole number. The evacuation times are summarized in Figure 3.5-2. 3-19
T' 3.5.2 A Comparison With An EPA Evacuation Study Evacuation experience in 'the -United S'tates for the period from 1959 to 1973 is su=mIrized in a report hublished by the U.S. (2) Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The report provides data on 64 evacuation events, most of which were in response to hazards from transportation accidents, floods or hurricanes. (6) The Reactor Safety Study (RSS) found that evacuation times from transportation accidents were more appropriate for the evaluation of evacuation times in reactor accidents. (Table 3.5-l' presents the collected data for transportation accidents.) Based on a distribution of evacuation speeds for evacuations of all types, the RSS concluded that cn effective speed of 1.2 mph had the highest probability of occurrence during evacuations. In applying this conclusion, a simple estimate for an evacuation of a-10-mile' radius is 8 hours 20 minutes. This is reasonably close to the estimates of 9, 9, 9, and 8 hours shown in
\
Figure 3.5-2. l i l l 3-20 l 4
, ., --c , .-,-s c .,,.u - - . .wr- ------. e
r - s TABLZ 3.5-1 3ASIC EVACUATICN DATA - TRANSPORTATICN s . E
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,w fw> a- aw a- w- a. - m a > u a 1.2 :o.c.isgtse.. Su.bu=maa 0.03 733 o f 1.2 2.0 22:4 Ory Cauc7 wig.M 7c ?;gynt.m m i,1 7As */2/73 200 3 15 ::sv. Ca.u. . .tural 13 7.500 12 1.2 SCG Ory Ts.g Might. Ps ?;ivue, vsniales rca 3/1/61 rssiden ti.al s 3 su:rursaan u:3.M5 13 C:a42cu.m.. Sumu:2.ma , 0.3 250 1.3 5.3 *:0 :r:- c1=udy Ou.ma xy 7 dvae w.ici NCJ 1/12/53 ,
3 M163~- 33 V.carh. CT.4 it=r al 3 2.000 :.3 a 647 == f cloudy :ny ye priv.as, ,x1,.1,, 4/4/45 residential 3 , *4 ladsvilla. ::5.us 0.0.3 4.000 1 3 11.4co u.c nais ay 73 p;ivag, ,,.tggg,,, C 3/1S/72 O c.hlo e,,=. 3, cg . , no cm.1ma d mc r l. 23 :::.ana. CM s u.=urt.an 3.1 4.0C0 c.73 3.3 1.20s df clea.: =am s.:. Privae, ,,31 1,, 3/12/%3 5 24 34can ?_-ug.. t=taa 5 1.* C . 000 23 2.3 13.303 / Clea- cay 77 '7:ivata weaicias ,
'.A s 3/53 C. I 'chloria. tase, I r.s ca.La:L .a :elmaa 23
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. 0:24m 1.3 3.000 of 4 1.30 *em 3r. w :.a7 7C Privace vehici s;
*As 1/13/73
. 3.23 3 chis is ,t.ary.s 4
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> 44 01 erd.=rs. Ru.:31 1.000 25.000 22 4 13 ==f 01sWy ric .= p p-tys t, m ger,, 1
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rural resident 1A1 su.tur .as urban (61 Iays 3 *::.aa : sad 3 - su=u :.as read
- X - *:ral gisada r - e rpress .ey (uall=.itad acress)
C - erpress way (' ' -' tad ac= e ss) . f31 teye ? - plaa ava112.31e (not asedl 70 - plan used np - no plan s . :. . m e.a ca S
- 7. 7 NtJS CC.::;: car;ICN A. l
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1 3 5 p Highway Movement Time (Heur) NNW -
" 4 b
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S Figure 3.5-1
.' Notification Time and Sec ::r Highway Movement Time 1
3-22
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'NNW 9
-6.
8 9 2
- 2 E o
8 6
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l 9 , S Figure 3.5-2 Evacuation Times By Sec cr*
- *sveevation cim inctue. nouncarian ur, G
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23 i ..- )
$ .' 6 Advarsa '.Jeather s
Obviously, the impact of weather conditions may . vary widely
~
as illustrated by thi data on snowfalls -(see Table 2.4-1) . However, in order to respond, we have taken the 20% figure-(5) from the Transportation Research Circular, p.261. Ob-viously, as is recognited by the Grimes letter, if one assu=es a _ blizzard to occur simultaneously with an evacuation, it is li.kely that the responsible authorities would determine that the more effective protection-of the public health and safety would be to-have the populace recain sheltered. This-20% reduction in highway capacity resulted in a 25% increase in local highway movecent times. .No:ification times, which include notification, preparation, and initial movement times, are also increased by 25%. These results are shown-in Figures 3.6-1 and 3.6-2. For more details on the meteorology and adverse weather in the EPZ, refer to
~
Section 2.4. 3-24 s
s
\
. \
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y
. s 1:1 3% ! 6;i
( H!gnway Movement Time (Heur)" NNW 5 3% /
/ s 3%
1,4, e 1:1 . 3% 3% . 3% WSW s S
- Notification times are cumulative. The notification time for the entire 10-mile E7Z is 6'A hours.
**Hignway moveme*tt times art cumulative. The outer numeer reoresents tne total sector hignway movement time.
Figure 3.6-1 Notificatien Time and Sector Hichway Mcvement Times in Adversa Yleather 1 3-25 l l l ~ M i 1
a- ' b
~ '
NNW 11%
/
/
7%
,, 7 72 2% 5 7:
10 7% Wsw ' 11% S - Figure 3.5-2 Evacuation Time in Adverse 'Neather
' Times for tne 5. and 10eile racial sectors are cumulative. The outer nummer is tne total for the enure to. mile sector.
s 3-26 i~ .
i
-3.7 Roferences
- 1. Aldrich, D. C., " Examination of Offsite Radiological Emergency Protective Measures for Nuclear Reactor Acci-dents Involving Core Melt," Ph.D. Thesis, MIT, 1978.
- 2. Hans, J. M. and T. C. Sell, " Evacuation Risks--An Evalua-tion, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, EPA-520/6-74-002, 1974."
- 3. "1972 Route and Intersection Inventory, Delaware Valley Regional Planning Cocnission, June 1977."
- 4. Transportation Research Circular, Nu=ber 212, Trans-portation Research Board, National Academy of Sciences, 2102 Constitution Avenue, Washington, D.C., January 1980.
- 5. WAS'd-1400, Appendix VI, Reactor Safety Study.
3-27 l i
4.0 -SPECIAL FACILITIES
- Special facilities are nursing homes, general hospitals , mental institutions,.and prisons. Public and frivate educational in-stitutions are also considered in this: category.
Within the 10-mile EPZ of Limerick, there are 15 special facilities. Eleven of them are beyond the 5-mile limit and only Pottstown Flemorial Medical Center is within the 2-mile radius. It is-1.8 miles from Limerick-Station. In order to establish a reasonable perspective on.the evacuation times of such institu-tions,-onsite interviews were conducted with the directors A and/or other responsible personnel of institutions representing each type of special facility within the 10-mile EPZ: nursing homes, general hospitals, mental hospitals, and correctional institutions. There are 9 nursing homes, 3 gene'ral hospitals , 1 mental hospital, and 2 correctional institutions within the . EPZ. Neither of the correctional institutions, Montgomery County Prison Farm or Graterford Prison, are within the 5-mile radius. In fact, Graterford, an 1,800-person maximum security prison, is approximately 8.3-miles from the plant, and the Montgomery County Prison Farm is at the 10-mile limit, just west of
, . Eagleville.
The crucial time-factor for a special facility is the time it takes to prepare the special facility population to evacuate, including.the' time'it takes: to load-the population onto 4-1
, waiting vehicles. Depending upon the facility, the' emergency planning agencies will be. required toLprovide supplemental means of transportati.on. This fact is f.ully understood by
~
the local authorities. It is assumed that all special facilities would be notified' rapidly in the event of a general evacuation per theLPEMA plan, thus making notification almost immediate. It is also reasonable to assume that in a slowly developing incident at the plant, advance notification to special facili-ties would permit certain preparatory measures to commence well before notification to the general public to evaucate the 10-mile EPZ. This advance notification would reduce the preparation time but credit for this reduction is not included in these estimates.
. 4 .1 Graterford Prison -
Graterford Prison is an 1,800-inmate, maximum security, state prison facility that comes under the purview of the Pennsylvania Commissioner of Corrections. The prison is approximately S.3 miles from the Limerick Station with as much underground space as aboveground space. This under-ground space was previously used for Civil Defense. The Commissioner of Corrections has had the experience of planning for and estimating the approximate evacuation time of an 1,100-inmate _ facility in Camp Hill. He was required to formulate these plans for the Camp Hill facility because of the Three . Mile Island incident. l 4-2
. l l
iheStatoCcamissionerofCorrectionsestimatedatotal evacuition time of 5 hours and 30 minutes for Graterford, if theLevacuation order is given in the, daytime. (Prisoners 7 would not be moved outside the prison at night for security reasons.) Mobilization time (i.e., time to get buses to the site and get the prisoners ready to load onto the buses) is 4 hours and'15 minutes. Loading and driving time to beyond the. 10-mile limit was estimated at 1 hour and 15 minutes. This estimate assumes the availability of 90 buses. I2 the order to evacuate was given just after sunset, the mobilization would commence 4 hours and 15 minutes before sunrise, and loading and departure would begin at first light. Other planning information and details are proprietary. .i Y 4
.._ 4-3
c
- 4. 2 - Pottstown Memorial Medical Center The~ hospital is wihhin the 2-mile rad i'us o f the plant.
Located app:cximat'ely 1. 8 miles from'the plan:, Po t ts town
. Memorial Medical Center is the largest hospital in the 10-mile EPZ, based on licensed and approved bed capacity statistics f rom the Pennsylvania Depar tment' of Health,' and on onsite
-interviews with Pottstown Memorial Medical Center officials.
.With a current to tal capacity o f 275 beds, it is almost double the capacity c f the second, largest hospital within the 10-mile IPZ.
Eospi:al officials estimated that approximately 50% of the patients within the hospital at any given time would be ambulatory and could go home with relatives, thus not requiring any special transportation a::angements other than contacting f amilies- to pick them up. w. Ambulatory patients, who could not be discharged in time due to problems with contacting relatives, would be moved to a safe staging area from which f amilies would be notified. Hospital of ficials estimated it would take an estimated
'3 to 4 hours to discharge these patients. A more difficult consideration is the evacuation of oatients requiring medical equipment.such as respirators, or orthopedic patients unable to be ~ transported by ambulance. These patients would have to be transported in bed and.it is assumed they would be transported by moving van. This method was used recently when all such patients were moved into the newly constructed . hospital building.
l Directory of Licensed / App:cved Hospitals in Pennsyl-vania, Pennsylvania Depar tment of Health, 1976. 4-4 NUS CCRFCAATCN
4 Psychiatric pacients would recuire one employee .:e: patien : however, it is ant {cipa:ed tha: in an,.~ emergency, the level of hospital personnel support necessary :o cove: :his con-tingency would be present. So, with these considerations, hospital o fficials estimated j it would take them 3 to 4 hours (maxi =um) to move all o ther patients from thei: rooms and load them into ambulances or other rescue transp'ortation vehicles. It is assumed that the necessary vehicles would a::ive at the hospital
-within the first 3 hours'of preparation. It is likely tha:
under ar7 circumstances in which an evacuation is even remo tely possible, special facilities would be given special at:en-tion by state and local o f ficials so that such facilities would have notice in advance of the general pub.lic to pre-pare well before the general evacuation order is given. It is asst =ed that under these conditions and g.ith proper .
'c.olice escort evacuation time of the hos=. ital could be sie.ni .
ficantly reduced. In the unlikely event the hospital were to no t receive advance notification to prepare, its preparation time of 4 hours would be added to the local . highway movement time o f 4 hours. This assumes the hospital evacuation vehicles would use evacuation route N06. Thus, the worst case fair weather estimate would be 3 hours, and the worst case adverse weather estimate is 9 hours. 3 Table 4.2-1 lists hospitals within the I?Z, including addresses,
~1icensed/ approved bed capacities, and approximate d is tances f rom the plant. It is assumed that.these hospitals would proceed in a fashion similar to Po tts town in the event of a decision to evacuate.
4'-5 NUS CCP.:C A AECN
s ; TABLZ 4.2-1 -
. LAe. Os- =C s- . . e,.c.c-
.v I . .n.I
. T TE... .~..v Approximate
[ Facilitv/ Address Beds Distance Potestown Memorial Center 275 1.8 miles Fires tene 3oulevard and High Stree t Potts town, Mcntgcme ry County, PA Eagleville Hospital and 126 9.0 miles Rehabilitation Center P. O. Box 45, Eagleville Road . Eagleville, Montgcmery County, PA Phoenixville Hospital 139 7.8 miles 140 trutt Road Phoenixville, Chester County, PA a 4-6' 3 - NUS CCFFCPATICN
4
. 4.3 Nursing Ecmas Two nursing hcmes Were selected to represent this category:
one in the North Nd:thwes: Sector with' 143 beds, and one in the Eas tern 'Secto: vith 600 beds. 4.3.1 Frederick Mennonite Home r The Frederick Mennonite Home is approximately 6.4 miles a f rom the plant and has a total bed capacity of 143 beds.
- Its physical plant consists of retirement residences and nursing facilities. The requirement for x=bulances would be minimal in the worst ci:cums:ances since there are no bed-ridden patients in the facility. (only those recovering f rom an operation or injury would recuire embulance service.)
It is assumed that the demand for c:bulances could vary considerably at each nursing heme. (See Montgomery County Geriatric Center, Section 4.3.2.) The facility conducts 3 fire drills every month. As part of the drill procedure, each resident goes to a predetermined exit. An evacuation would not require a change in this routine generally except that the residents would then continue f:cm their stations to the vehicles. Also, those residents who normally remain in bed during fire drills
- would be moved to exit points in wheel chairs. Accounting for this additional time to the fire drill time, the director estimated a total 10 minutes time for all patients to go from bed to the appropriate exits.
The nursing home _ director estimated that approximately 35% ; o f the resident population would need close personal attention => in moving while the. remaining 65% would no t rec.uire an enc.lovee i 1 I 4-7 l NUS COR;:CRATICNl l he I
, 'ct thair side. Thoso residen:s requiring close a::ention vould.need help in boarding cars and buses. Three minutes per person was assumed ' jus: for leadi.}g these persons, based on the directc 's experience in sendfag g: cups of residents on field trips and visits.
To move residents from the beds to the e::its and then to vehicles in the middle of the night when staff attendance f is lowest and during adverse wea:her conditions, the director estimated 2 hours and 15 minutes. Driving. time to beyond the 10-mile limit is considered to be negligible at 6.4 miles f:cm the Limerick Station. With advance nctice it is likely that the nursing home could evacua:e faster than the general population for the North Northwest Sector. In the unlikely event that the nursing home was not notified in advance, and preparation started at the same time as for the general population, the nursing home peculation would be on the read with the general coc.ulati'on in 2 hcurs and 15 minutes. Assuming the facility vehicles used Evacu-ation Route N09, the total f air weather evacuation time is an estimated a_ hours anc. 3 . s minutes, ,
.n adverse weatn.e:
6 hours and 45 minutes. 4.3.2 Montgcmery County Geriatric and Rehabilitation - Center
- The Montgomery County Geriatric Center, outside Royersford, is a maximum 600-patient care f acility, approximately 6 miles from the Limerick Station. There are 350 skilled patients (i.e.,. patients requiring close attention) and 241 inter-mediate care patients (i.e., Enbulatory patients).
I
- This facility was added to the. study as a result of comments f:cm local officials. 1 1
1 1 4-8 NUS CC. FmPAT"CN
\
1
. Interviews wi:h the director of the f acility indicated' that C, the facility conducts one house. drill each month wi:h several smaller drills dur,ing the month. Althcugh no general evacua-
, . tion of the entire {f acility has been J:ehearsed at one time, each unit within the facility has experienced a fire drill. After consultation with his staff, che director of the center estimated that the: entire facility could be mobili:ad within 3.5 hours a: night. This time includes preparation f:cm the moment of notification through completion of the process of loading all patients onto wait'ing vehicles. This time assumes tha: the squired staff members assemble at the facility to help the residents. The mobilization time estimate also assu=es the availability of fifteen 30-passenger buses more than those available onsite f ull- time , 20 a=bulances capable of carrying two patients each, and 4 wheelchair vans. The dire.ctor estimated conservatively that approximately 40 patients would require ambulances; the remainder could travel by bus. With advance notification, the nursing home could evacuate the EP: f aster by starting its preparation before no tifi-cation that there is a general evacuation. no advance noti:: cation were provicec, anc assum.,ng tne I., nursing home population uses the closest evacuation route (also the = cst conservative in terms of highway movemen: times), the to tal f air weather-evacuation es timate is 8.5 hours. i The adverse weather estimate ~is 9.75 hours, assuming Evacua-tion Route E13 is used in both cases. Table. 4.3-1 is a list of nursing home facilities within the.EPZ, including addresses , numbed of beds and approximate , distance from:the plant. y. 4-9 Nt.JS CC;:;:C;:AT;CN
- TABLZ 4.3-1 NURSING HCMZ FACILITIE5
- WITHIN TE:. .r .
?
App roxima te
' ~
Distance Nursing Home from Plant Facilitv/ Address Beds (miles) Leade: Nursing and Rehabilitation 159 4.0 P Center 724 North Charlotte Street Po tts town, PA 194 64 , Montgomery County Geriatric and 600 6.0 Rehabilitation Center 1600 Slack Rock Road Royersford, PA 19468 Frederick Mennonite Home for Aged 143 6.1 Route 73 Frederick, PA 19435 - Manatawny Manor and Residential Care 99 4.8 Route 724, Old Schuylkill Road - Po t ts tow n , PA 19466 Douglassville Home 40 7.2 R.D. 1 Douglassville, PA Rive Road Home 25 6.7 R.D. 1 Douglassville, PA
. Mary Hill Rest Haven 17 8.0 Cold Stream and Mary Hill Roads Phoenixville, PA Coventry Mano: 41 5.5 Chestnut Hill Road Coventryville, PA Phoenixville Mano: 135 7.7
-833 S. Main Street Phoenixville,-PA hee 4-10 NUS CC;:PCFA :CNi
4.4 Pennhurst Center
/
The pennhurst Cente: is a state mental-institution including , :esidents ranging f:cm hyperactive child:s
. to those who would require tight security, plus escort in the event of a decision to evacuate the facility. The 1003-resident population is distribu:ed among 24 buildings, and the center itself is a.ccroximately 2.5 miles f:cm the plant, .i u s t north 1 o f Spring City. Each building has a separate evacuation plan geared to the occucants and layout o f that building.
The Center's existing evacua:icn plan require; furtner work to set up reception centers. It is necessary to send the residents to a similar institution capable of housing and caring for these clients' special needs. The existing plan now p ro v .; d e s :.o a c..a.,n s o,. commanc :o cecision ma..v. ng, tentatively sets plans for obtaining vehicles, specifies the need for pharmacists to dispense drugs and allocate
. drug supplies, and sets the priorities for client evacuation by class cf client (i.e., first--physically ill or bed f as t; second--non-ambulatory; and third--ambulatory). Some per-centage of the clients would be discharged to their families, according to the plan.
There are extensive underground facilities at Pennhurst that will accommodate up to 10,000 people. This is sufficient for the residents and staff of Pennhurst as well as the
. .cooulation of Chester County within three miles of the Cen:er.
Elmer 3. McSurdy, the Dir.ector of Administrative Services at Pennhurst is a licensed Shelter Manager. p,. 4-11 NUS CCFPC At T!CN
/
Transportation of the Pennhurst Cente clients would require 33 buses, 76 ambulances, and 2 furniture vans for wheel chait clients. No f suitable transport ,Is available at the > Center. It will h5ve to be brought to the Cancer during the advance notification pericd. The Center has an employee pool of 1,600, 600 of whcm repre-a sent the maximum staff at any daytime hour. The availability ? o f a suf ficie.nt number o f the regular staff would have to be planned and assumed for an evacu:* tion time estimate. Based on these considerations, the , director o f the facility es timates that the total institution could be mobilized and loaded within 2 hours. This estimate is based on the availability of many loading points for the a=bulances and buses (Figure 4.4-1). Because there are 24 separate occupied buildings, Pennhurst clients can be conveniently loaded into their transport at many points simultaneously without interfering with other clients. Emb ryv ille and. .No r r is tow n are two possible reception sites. s Advance notification of about 6 ho6:s is required to allow the f acility to begin preparation before the general public gets the no tification that it is to evacuate. 4 In a. worst case situation where this special facility is not given advance no tification, the preparation time is added to the estimated evacuation time yielding a fair weather estimate of a hours and an adverse weather evacuation esti-mate of .10 hours, which include notification and preparation time, loading time, and highway movement time. b -
,4-12 NUS CCR;:C;:,:.- ICN f
'4 . 5 Schools There are 12 school districts within the 10-mile EPI, 10 of which have schools within the EP2.
School bus drivers and school buses-are-most often contract'ed from a private company and, for the purposes of this preliminary estimate, these buses and. drivers are assumed to be available. Assuming the availability of buses, these schools represent a controlled population for the purpose of evacuation. . The school districts having schools within the 10-mile EPI are as follows:
- Montgomery County:
Pottstown, Pottsgrove, Spring Ford, Perkiomen i Valley, Methacton, and Boyertown - l
- Chester County:
Owen J. Roberts, Phoenixville, and Great Valley Berks County: Daniel Boone and part of Boyertown
'In the affected counties, school districts are required to bus students within their school districts to schools in other districts up'to 10 miles from their borders.
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