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#REDIRECT [[RS-14-014, Attachment 2: Kld TR-631, Rev. 0, Quad Cities Generating Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Page 6-1 Through Page 9-3]]
| number = ML14128A180
| issue date = 04/08/2014
| title = Attachment 2: Kld TR-631, Rev. 0, Quad Cities Generating Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Page 6-1 Through Page 9-3
| author name =
| author affiliation = KLD Engineering, PC
| addressee name =
| addressee affiliation = Exelon Generation Co, LLC, NRC/NMSS, NRC/NRR
| docket = 05000254, 05000265, 07200053
| license number = DPR-029, DPR-030
| contact person =
| case reference number = RS-14-0145
| document report number = KLD TR-631, Rev 0
| package number = ML14128A158
| document type = Evacuation Time Estimate/Report (ETE)
| page count = 81
}}
 
=Text=
{{#Wiki_filter:6 DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation "case" defines a combination of Evacuation Region and Evacuation Scenario.
The definitions of "Region" and "Scenario" are as follows:Region A grouping of contiguous evacuating Sub-areas that forms either a "keyhole" sector-based area, or a circular area within the EPZ, that must be evacuated inresponse to a radiological emergency.
Scenario A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season,and weather conditions.
Scenarios define the number of people in each of theaffected population groups and their respective mobilization time distributions.
A total of 36 Regions were defined which encompass all the groupings of Sub-areas considered.
These Regions are defined in Table 6-1. The Sub-area configurations are identified in Figure6-1. Each keyhole sector-based area consists of a central circle centered at the power plant,and three adjoining
: sectors, each with a central angle of 22.5 degrees, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance.
The central sector coincides with the wind direction.
These sectors extend to 5 milesfrom the plant (Regions R04 through R13) or to the EPZ boundary (Regions R14 through R25).Regions R01, R02 and R03 represent evacuations of circular areas with radii of 2, 5 and 10 miles,respectively.
Regions R26 through R36 are identical to Regions R02 and R04 through R13,respectively;
: however, those Sub-areas between 2 miles and 5 miles are staged until 90% of the2-mile region (Region R01) has evacuated.
Each Sub-area that intersects the keyhole is included in the Region, unless specified in theProtective Action Recommendation (PAR) determination flowchart on page QC 4-3 of theExelon Radiological Emergency Plan Annex for Quad Cities Station (Exelon, 2013). There areinstances when a small portion of a Sub-area is within the keyhole and the population withinthat small portion is low (500 people or 10% of Sub-area population, whichever is less). Underthose circumstances, the Sub-area would not be included in the Region.A total of 14 Scenarios were evaluated for all Regions.
Thus, there are a total of 36 x 14 = 504evacuation cases. Table 6-2 is a description of all Scenarios.
Each combination of Region and Scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated.
Table6-3 presents the percentage of each population group estimated to evacuate for each Scenario.
Table 6-4 presents the vehicle counts for each Scenario for an evacuation of Region R03 -theentire EPZ.The vehicle estimates presented in Section 3 are peak values. These peak values are adjusteddepending on the Scenario and Region being considered, using Scenario and Region specificpercentages, such that the average population is considered for each evacuation case. TheScenario percentages are presented in Table 6-3, while the regional percentages are provided inTable H-1. The percentages presented in Table 6-3 were determined as follows:Quad Cities Generating Station 6-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The number of residents with commuters during the week (when workforce is at its peak) is theproduct of 50% (the number of households with at least one commuter
-see Figure F-3) and45% (the number of households with a commuter that would await the return of the commuterprior to evacuating
-see Figure F-5) which equals 23%. See assumption 3 in Section 2.3. It isestimated for weekend and evening scenarios that 10% of households with returning commuters will have a commuter at work during those times.Employment is assumed to be at its peak (100%) during the winter, midweek, midday scenarios.
Employment is reduced slightly (96%) for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.
This is based onthe estimation that 50% of the employees commuting into the EPZ will be on vacation for aweek during the approximate 12 weeks of summer. It is further estimated that those takingvacation will be uniformly dispersed throughout the summer with approximately 4% ofemployees vacationing each week. It is further estimated that only 10% of the employees areworking in the evenings and during the weekends.
Transient activity is estimated to be at its peak (100%) during summer weekends due to theRiverview Park and Stadium, Wild Rose Casino and Resort, marinas and campgrounds.
Transient activity during the week in the summertime is estimated to be half (50%) of itsweekend peak. Transient activity is estimated to be slightly less during winter weekends andweekdays, 70% and 35%, respectively, due to the large number of golf courses, parks, andmarinas within the EPZ that are closed during winter months. Due to the casino and the largenumber of lodging facilities and campgrounds offering overnight accommodations, transient activity during the evening is estimated to be 70% in the summer and 50% in the winter.As noted in the shadow footnote to Table 6-3, the shadow percentages are computed using abase of 20% (see assumption 5 in Section 2.2); to include the employees within the shadowregion who may choose to evacuate, the voluntary evacuation is multiplied by a scenario-specific proportion of employees to permanent residents in the shadow region. For example,using the values provided in Table 6-4 for Scenario 1, the shadow percentage is computed asfollows:20% (x + 2,694 220 5,921 + 20,366)=One special event -the Great River Tug Fest -was considered as Scenario
: 13. Thus, the specialevent traffic is 100% evacuated for Scenario 13, and 0% for all other scenarios.
It is estimated that summer school enrollment is approximately 10% of enrollment during theregular school year for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.
School is not in session duringweekends and evenings, thus no buses for school children are needed under thosecircumstances.
As discussed in Section 7, schools are in session during the winter season,midweek, midday and 100% of buses will be needed under those circumstances.
The commutercolleges
-Ashford College, Clinton Community
: College, and Clinton Community CollegeTechnology Center -are assumed to have the same scenario percentages as schools within theEPZ.Quad Cities Generating Station 6-2 KID Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Transit buses for the transit-dependent population are set to 100% for all scenarios as it isassumed that the transit-dependent population is present in the EPZ for all scenarios.
External traffic is estimated to be reduced by 60% during evening scenarios and is 100% for allother scenarios.
Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate6-3KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation RegionsSub-AreaI1L2 IlL3 I IL4 I ILS I IL6 I Ml I IA2 I IA3 I IA4 I IA5 I IA6 I IA7 I IAS I IA9 I IA10 I IA11 I IA12 IQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate6-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 r -IQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate6-5KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 6-1. QDC EPZ Sub-areas Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate6-6KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions 1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain NoneMdSummer week, Evening Good NoneSumer Weekend6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None12 Winter Midweek, Evening Good NoneSummer Midweek, Evening Good Great River Tug13 Weekend FestSingle Lane14 Summer Midweek Midday Good Closure on 1-80and 1-88' Winter assumes that school is in session (also applies to spring and autumn).
Summer assumes that school is notin session.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate6-7KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-3. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios Houseolds Ho se~~(With W1~:~fu ithutI Extrna123%77%96%50%22%0%10%10%100%100%2 23% 77% 96% 50% 22% 0% 10% 10% 100% 100%3 2% 98% 10% 100% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%4 2% 98% 10% 100% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%5 2% 98% 10% 70% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100% 40%6 23% 77% 100% 35% 22% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100%7 23% 77% 100% 35% 22% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100%8 23% 77% 100% 35% 22% 0% 100% 100% 100% 100%9 2% 98% 10% 70% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%10 2% 98% 10% 70% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%11 2% 98% 10% 70% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100% 100%12 2% 98% 10% 50% 20% 0% 0% 0% 100% 40%13 2% 98% 10% 70% 20% 100% 0% 0% 100% 40%14 23% 77% 96% 50% 22% 0% 10% 10% 100% 100%Resident Households with Commuters
....... Households of EPZ residents who await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Resident Households with No Commuters
.Households of EPZ residents who do not have commuters or will not await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Employees
.................................................
EPZ employees who live outside the EPZTransients
.................................................
People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident for recreational or other (non-employment) purposes.
Shadow .....................................................
Residents and employees in the shadow region (outside of the EPZ) who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation.
The basis for the values shown is a 20% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees.
Special Events ............................................
Additional vehicles in the EPZ due to the identified special event.Commuter Colleges
...................................
Colleges wherein all students drive themselves and would evacuate using their personal vehicles.
School and Transit Buses ...........................
Vehicle-equivalents present on the road during evacuation servicing schools and transit-dependent people (1 bus is equivalent to 2passenger vehicles).
External Through Traffic ............................
Traffic on interstates/freeways and major arterial roads at the start of the evacuation.
This traffic is stopped by access control 2 hoursafter the evacuation begins.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate6-8KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-4. Vehicle Estimates by ScenarioReunn Reunn pca omtrSho rni hog SceaiScnai Comtr Comtr Emlye Trniet Shdo Evn Colege Bue Bue Tf c Veice1 5,921 20,366 2,694 1,721 5,864 -67 33 28 8,788 45,4822 5,921 20,366 2,694 1,721 5,864 -67 33 28 8,788 45,4823 592 25,695 281 3,442 5,376 ---28 8,788 44,2024 592 25,695 281 3,442 5,376 -28 8,788 44,2025 592 25,695 281 2,409 5,376 ---28 3,515 37,8966 5,921 20,366 2,806 1,205 5,887 -670 332 28 8,788 46,0037 5,921 20,366 2,806 1,205 5,887 -670 332 28 8,788 46,0038 5,921 20,366 2,806 1,205 5,887 -670 332 28 8,788 46,0039 592 25,695 281 2,409 5,376 ---28 8,788 43,16910 592 25,695 281 2,409 5,376 ---28 8,788 43,16911 592 25,695 281 2,409 5,376 ---28 8,788 43,16912 592 25,695 281 1,721 5,376 ---28 3,515 37,20813 592 25,695 281 2,409 5,376 1,116 --28 3,515 39,01214 5,921 20,366 2,694 1,721 5,864 -67 33 28 8,788 45,482Note: Vehicle estimates are for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (Region R03)Quad Cities Generating Station 6-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE)This section presents the ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II Systemdescribed in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover the 36 regions within the QDC EPZ andthe 14 Evacuation Scenarios discussed in Section 6.The ETE for all Evacuation Cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables presentthe estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the Evacuation Regionsfor all Evacuation Scenarios.
The ETE for the 2-mile region in both staged and un-staged regionsare presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5 defines the Evacuation Regions considered.
The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which aregenerated at 5-minute intervals.
7.1 Voluntary Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation "Voluntary evacuees" are people within the EPZ in Sub-areas for which an Advisory to Evacuatehas not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate.
"Shadow evacuation" is the voluntary outwardmovement of some people from the Shadow Region (outside the EPZ) for whom no protective action recommendation has been issued. Both voluntary and shadow evacuations are assumedto take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted Evacuation Region.The ETE for the QDC EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown inFigure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20 percent of people located in Sub-areas outside of the evacuation region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate.
Similarly, it isassumed that 20 percent of those people in the Shadow Region will choose to leave the area.Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially fromthe plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. Thepopulation and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using thesame methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). Asdiscussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 47,316 people reside in the ShadowRegion; 20 percent of them would evacuate.
See Table 6-4 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.Traffic generated within this Shadow Region, traveling away from the QDC site, has thepotential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the Evacuation Region. All ETEcalculations include this shadow traffic movement.
7.2 Staged Evacuation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:
: 1. Sub-areas comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately.
: 2. Sub-areas comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised toshelter in-place while the two mile region is cleared.Quad Cities Generating Station 7-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
: 3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continuepreparation for evacuation while they shelter.4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region is advised to evacuate whenapproximately 90% of the 2 mile region evacuating traffic crosses the 2 mile regionboundary.
: 5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadowevacuation percentage of 20%.See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.
7.3 Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the casewhen the entire EPZ (Region R03) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, middayperiod under good weather conditions (Scenario 1).Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F isdefined as follows (HCM 2010, page 5-5):The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demandexceeds capacity) or have exceeded a specified service measure value, or combination of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory.
However,particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Severalmeasures are available to describe individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOSF condition:
* Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceededduring the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);a Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, I h, 3h); and* Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions.
Theseinclude measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specificintersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.
All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these figures by a thick red line; allothers are lightly indicated.
Congestion develops rapidly around concentrations of population and traffic bottlenecks.
Figure 7-3 displays the traffic congestion within the EPZ 30 minutesafter the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE). At this time, about one third of transients and employees have begun their evacuation trips, as well as about 10% of the EPZ residents.
Congestion existsat this time along most of the major evacuation routes within Clinton, Iowa -the most denselypopulated area of the EPZ. Congestion also exists along State Route (SR) 136 eastbound at theintersection with SR 84 in Fulton, Illinois in the Shadow Region. All other areas of the EPZ areoperating at LOS C or better.Quad Cities Generating Station 7-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 At 1 hour after the ATE, Figure 7-4 displays peak congestion within the EPZ. At this time, morethan half of evacuees have begun their evacuation trip and a third have successfully evacuated the EPZ. Congestion within Clinton has intensified with all routes in the city operating at LOS F.Congestion within Fulton has also intensified
-SR 136 eastbound is operating at LOS F from theintersection with US-30 across the bridge into Clinton as evacuees from Clinton cross intoIllinois to avoid traffic congestion within Clinton.
Evacuees from Clinton are also using the US-30bridge to enter Illinois.
This results in traffic congestion at the intersection of US-30 and SR 84south of Fulton, just north of the EPZ boundary.
Elvira Rd (County Route F12 -CR F12) iscongested at the intersection with 380th Ave (CR Z36) as evacuees from Clinton travelwestbound and then turn northbound on CR Z36 to leave the EPZ and travel toward thereception center in Goose Lake. Wisconsin St eastbound and US-67 southbound are congested in Le Claire, Iowa. Both 7th Ave and US-67 within Camanche, Iowa are congested at this time.Camanche is located just beyond the 5-mile radius from the plant. There is no traffic congestion within 5 miles of the plant. All roadways in Port Byron, Illinois are operating at LOS D or better.At 1 hour and 30 minutes after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-5, congestion is beginning todissipate.
At this time, more than 80% of vehicles have begun their evacuation trips, and 56% ofvehicles have successfully evacuated the EPZ. None of the routes in Camanche or south ofFulton in Illinois are operating at LOS F at this time. Traffic congestion within Clinton is stillpronounced.
Wisconsin St eastbound and US-67 southbound in Le Claire are still congested.
Allroads in Port Byron are operating at LOS B or better. There is also significant congestion in theShadow Region (CR Z36 northbound and SR 136 eastbound in Fulton) and beyond (approaches to US-61 near Welton, Iowa and Dewitt, Iowa, and Garden Plain Rd at US-30 in Morrison, Illinois).
At 2 hours and 15 minutes after the ATE, Figure 7-6 shows that all congestion in the EPZ hascleared, excluding Clinton.
All routes leaving Clinton are still heavily congested.
At this time,97% of vehicles have begun their evacuation trips; 81% have evacuated.
Congestion in theShadow Region persists
-SR 136 eastbound in Fulton and CR Z36 northbound toward thereception center in Goose Lake.At 3 hours and 15 minutes after the ATE, as shown in Figure 7-7, congestion in Clinton isbeginning to dissipate as US-67 northbound clears. Traffic congestion in Fulton has cleared.Traffic congestion persists northbound on CR Z36 in the Shadow Region. Almost all vehicleshave mobilized; 97% have evacuated.
Finally at 3 hours and 45 minutes after the ATE (Figure 7-8) the last road within the EPZ toexhibit traffic congestion is 442nd Ave northbound at the intersection with SR 136 leavingClinton.
The EPZ and study area completely clear of congestion 10 minutes later.7.4 Evacuation RatesEvacuation is a continuous
: process, as implied by Figure 7-9 through Figure 7-22. These figuresindicate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation of the full EPZ (Region R03) under the indicated conditions.
One figure is presented for eachscenario considered.
Quad Cities Generating Station 7-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 As indicated in Figure 7-9, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions.
Vehicles begin toevacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then trafficdemand builds rapidly (slopes of curves increase).
When the system becomes congested, trafficexits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared.
Asmore routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left theEPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.The rate of egress for the 2-mile and 5-mile Regions remains relatively constant after the firsthour of the evacuation.
As discussed in Section 7.3, there is no congestion within 5 miles of theplant. The rate of egress is equal to the mobilization time for the population in this area. Thelong "tail" of the evacuation plots is due to the relatively few stragglers within 5 miles who takesignificantly longer to mobilize.
Conversely, the rate of egress for the Entire EPZ decreases sharply after the first 90 minutes ofthe evacuation as a result of the pronounced congestion within Clinton.
The long "tail" for thiscurve is due to the heavy congestion resulting from a surplus of demand relative to available roadway capacity.
: Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes equally so that all willservice traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, allcurves would retain the same slope until the end -thus minimizing evacuation time. In reality,this ideal is generally unattainable reflecting the spatial variation in population density,mobilization rates and in highway capacity over the EPZ.7.5 Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) ResultsTable 7-1 and Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 36 Evacuation Regions and all 14Evacuation Scenarios.
Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present the ETE values for the 2-Mile region forboth staged and un-staged keyhole regions downwind to 5 miles. The tables are organized asfollows:Tabl ConentETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the7-1 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. AllScenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.
ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the7-2 population within a Region, to evacuate from that Region. AllScenarios are considered, as well as Staged Evacuation scenarios.
ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the7-3 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Regionwith both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.
ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the7-4 population within the 2-mile Region, to evacuate from that Regionwith both Concurrent and Staged Evacuations.
Quad Cities Generating Station 7-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The animation snapshots described above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8.There is no congestion within the 2- and 5-mile regions.
There is congestion beyond the 5-mileradius in Clinton.
This is reflected in the ETE statistics:
" The 90th percentile ETE for Region R01 (2-mile region) are 15 to 30 minutes shorter thanRegion R02 (5-mile region) for good weather and rain and range between 1:20 (hr:min)and 1:25 (higher for snow). These ETE are the time needed to mobilize 90 percent ofthe population within the 2-mile region. The 100th percentile ETE are equal to themobilization time of 3:30 (5:00 for snow).* The 90th percentile ETE for Region R02 (5-mile region) are on average approximately 1hour shorter than for Region R03 (full EPZ) due to the prevalence of traffic congestion inClinton beyond the 5-mile radius, and generally range between 1:40 and 1:50 (higher forsnow).These ETE are also the time needed to mobilize 90 percent of the population within the 5-mile region. These ETE are longer than the 2-mile region because thepercentage of residents versus employees/transients is higher in the 5-mile region andresidents take longer to mobilize.
The 100th percentile ETE are approximately equal tomobilization time -3:35 for good weather and rain, 5:05 for snow." The 90th percentile ETE for Region R03 (full EPZ) generally range between 2:30 and 3:00(higher for snow). The 100th percentile ETE exceed mobilization time by about 30minutes in good weather and rain as a result of the congestion in Clinton.
The 100thpercentile ETE are equal to mobilization time -5:10 -for snow.Comparison of Scenarios 5 and 13 in Table 7-1 indicates that the Special Event -Friday nightfireworks at the Great River Tug Fest -does not have a significant impact on ETE at the 90th or100th percentiles.
The additional 1,116 vehicles present for the event increase local congestion in Le Claire and Port Byron; however, the traffic congestion in Clinton lasts longer and dictatesthe ETE.Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure -one lane on1-80 and one lane on 1-88 (see Section 2.2, item 7 for additional information)
-does not have amaterial impact on ETE at the 90th or 100th percentiles.
Although Port Byron and Le Claire relyon these roads as major evacuation routes, the single lane access ramps to these roadways arebottlenecks such that the loss of a lane on the main thoroughfare has no impact.Despite the results of the roadway impact scenario, events such as adverse weather or trafficaccidents which close a lane on a major evacuation route, could impact ETE. State and localpolice could consider traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as atravel lane or re-routing of traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming any ofthe major evacuation routes. All efforts should be made to remove the blockage, particularly within the first 2 hours of the evacuation when most people begin their evacuation trip.Quad Cities Generating Station 7-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 7.6 Staged Evacuation ResultsTable 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies.
Note that Regions R26 through R36 are the samegeographic areas as Regions R02 and R04 through R13, respectively.
The times shown in Table7-3 and Table 7-4 are when the 2-mile region is 90% clear and 100% clear, respectively.
To determine whether the staged evacuation strategy is worthy of consideration, it must beshown that the ETE for the 2-mile region can be reduced without significantly affecting theexposure of those in the region between 2 miles and 5 miles. In all cases, as shown in thesetables, the ETE for the 2 mile region is unchanged when a staged evacuation is implemented.
The reason for this is that the nearest traffic congestion to the plant is in Camanche, Iowa -justbeyond the 5-mile radius. This congestion does not extend upstream to the extent that itpenetrates to within the 2-mile region. Consequently, the impedance, due to this congestion within the 5-mile region, to evacuees from within the 2-mile region is not sufficient tomaterially influence the 90th or 100th percentile ETE for the 2-mile region.To determine the effect of staged evacuation on residents outside the 2-mile Region, RegionsR02 and R04 through R13 are compared to Regions R26 through R36, respectively, in Table 7-1.The ETE for most keyholes increases when staging evacuation with some regions increasing byup to 35 minutes.
As shown in Figure 5-5, staging the evacuation causes a significant "spike"(sharp increase) in mobilization (trip-generation rate) of evacuating vehicles:
nearly 80 percentof the evacuating vehicles between 2 and 5 miles who have sheltered in place while residents within 2 miles evacuated, begin their evacuation trip over a 15 minute timeframe.
This spikeoversaturates evacuation routes, causing significant traffic congestion, rerouting and prolonged ETE.In summary, the staged evacuation protective action strategy provides no benefit to the 2-mileRegion and adversely impacts many evacuees located beyond 2 miles from QDC. Stagedevacuation is not recommended.
7.7 Guidance on Using ETE TablesThe user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRCguidance calls for the 90th percentile).
The applicable value of ETE within the chosen Table maythen be identified using the following procedure:
: 1. Identify the applicable Scenario:
" Season" Summer" Winter (also Autumn and Spring)" Day of Week" Midweek" Weekend" Time of Day0 MiddayQuad Cities Generating Station 7-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 E Evening* Weather Condition
" Good Weather" Rain" Snow* Special Event" Great River Tug Fest" Road Closure (One lane on 1-80 eastbound and westbound, one lane on 1-88eastbound and westbound)
" Evacuation Staging" No, Staged Evacuation is not considered
" Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these Scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year,some further clarification is warranted:
* The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are notexplicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (2) and (4) apply.0 The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are notexplicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (7) and (10) forrain apply.0 The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and snow are notexplicitly identified in the Tables. For these conditions, Scenarios (8) and (11) forsnow apply.* The seasons are defined as follows:" Summer assumes that public schools are not in session." Winter (includes Spring and Autumn) considers that public schools are in session.0 Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work orare travelling to/from work.2. With the desired percentile ETE and Scenario identified, now identify the Evacuation Region:* Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the winddirection).
This direction is expressed in terms of compass orientation:
towards N,NNE, NE, ...* Determine the distance that the Evacuation Region will extend from the nuclearpower plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate Regions aregiven below:0 2 Miles (Region R01)0 To 5 Miles (Region R02, and R04 through R13)0 To EPZ Boundary (Regions R03, R14 through R25)* Enter Table 7-5 and identify the applicable group of candidate Regions based on thedistance that the selected Region extends from the plant. Select the Evacuation Region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from thefirst column of the Table.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-7KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0
: 3. Determine the ETE Table based on the percentile selected.
Then, for the Scenarioidentified in Step 1 and the Region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:* The columns of Table 7-1 through Table 7-4 are labeled with the Scenario numbers.Identify the proper column in the selected Table using the Scenario number definedin Step 1.* Identify the row in the table that provides ETE values for the Region identified inStep 2.* The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains thedesired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.
ExampleIt is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:
* Sunday, August 10th at 4:00 AM.* It is raining.* Wind direction is toward the northeast (NE).* Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 5-mile radiusand downwind to 10 miles (to EPZ boundary).
* The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population fromwithin the impacted Region.* A staged evacuation is not desired.Table 7-1 is applicable because the 90th percentile ETE is desired.
Proceed as follows:1. Identify the Scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining.
Entering Table 7-1, it isseen that there is no match for these descriptors.
: However, the clarification givenabove assigns this combination of circumstances to Scenario 4.2. Enter Table 7-5 and locate the Region described as "Evacuate 5-Mile Radius andDownwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction toward the NE and read Region R16.3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for Scenario 4 andRegion R20. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for Region R16; it contains theETE value of 3:10.Quad Cities Generating Station 7-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer SmeMidweek Weekend MdekMidweek Weekend Miidweekdee Weekend Weekend WeekendMidday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening MiddayRegion Good Good Good Good Good Good reat RoadwayWeather Rain Weather Rain Weather Weather Weather RaiWeather River Tug ImpactFestEntire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZRO 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R02 1:50 1:50 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:10 1:40 1:40 1:50R03 2:45 2:55 2:35 2:55 2:35 2:45 3:00 3:20 2:30 2:40 3:05 2:35 2:35 2:452-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 MilesR04 1:45 1:50 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:40 1:45 2:10 1:40 1:40 1:45ROS 1:45 1:45 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:45 1:45 2:10 1:40 1:40 2:10 1:40 1:40 1:45R06 1:40 1:40 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:40 1:40 2:00 1:30 1:35 2:00 1:35 1:30 1:40R07 1:45 1:45 1:35 1:35 1:35 1:45 1:45 2:10 1:35 1:35 2:05 1:35 1:35 1:45ROB 1:35 1:35 1:30 1:30 1:35 1:35 1:40 2:00 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:35 1:35 1:35R09 1:45 1:45 1:35 1:35 1:35 1:45 1:45 2:10 1:35 1:35 2:05 1:35 1:35 1:45R10 1:40 1:40 1:35 1:35 1:35 1:40 1:45 2:05 1:35 1:35 2:05 1:35 1:35 1:40R11 1:45 1:45 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:45 1:50 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:10 1:40 1:40 1:45R12 1:45 1:45 1:35 1:35 1:35 1:45 1:45 2:10 1:35 1:40 2:05 1:40 1:35 1:45R13 1:40 1:45 1:35 1:35 1:35 1:45 1:45 2:05 1:35 1:40 2:05 1:40 1:35 1:40S-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ BoundaryR14 3:00 3:10 2:55 3:05 2:45 3:00 3:15 3:35 2:45 3:00 3:30 2:45 2:45 3:00RIS 3:00 3:10 2:55 3:05 2:45 3:00 3:15 3:35 2:45 3:05 3:30 2:45 2:45 3:00R16 2:55 3:05 2:50 3:10 2:45 2:55 3:10 3:30 2:40 2:55 3:25 2:40 2:45 2:55R17 1:50 1:50 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:50 1:55 2:10 1:45 1:45 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:50R18 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:50 1:45 1:55 1:55 2:15 1:50 1:55 2:10 1:45 1:45 1:55R19 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:50 1:45 1:55 1:55 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:10 1:45 1:45 1:55R20 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:55 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:05 1:50 1:55 2:00R21 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:00R22 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:10 1:50 1:55 2:00R23 1:50 1:50 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:50 1:50 2:20 1:40 1:45 2:10 1:40 1:40 1:50R24 1:50 1:50 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:40 1:45 2:10 1:40 1:40 1:50R25 3:00 3:10 2:55 3:05 2:45 3:00 3:15 3:35 2:45 3:00 3:30 2:45 2:45 3:00Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-9KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer SummerMidweek Midweek MidweekMidweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weekend dweek MidweekWeekend Weekend WeekendMidday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening MiddayRegion Good Good Good Good Good Good Great RoadwayRanRain Rain Snow Rin Snow River Tug Ipcr Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather ImpactFestStaged Evacuation  Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 MilesR26 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:15 2:35 2:10 2:15 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:10R27 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:15 2:20 2:40 2:15 2:15 2:15R28 2:10 2:15 2:10 2:15 2:10 2:15 2:15 2:35 2:10 2:15 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:10R29 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 1:45 1:45 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45R30 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:05 1:50 1:50 1:50R31 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:50 1:50 1:45 1:50 2:05 1:50 1:50 2:05 1:50 1:50 1:45R32 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:10 1:50 1:50 1:50R33 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:10 1:50 1:50 1:50R34 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 2:20 1:55 1:55 2:15 1:55 1:55 1:55R35 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:15 1:55 1:55 1:55R36 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:15 1:55 1:55 1:55Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-10KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Midweek Weekend Eire2 R Midweek Weekend Midweek Midwee MidweekWeekend Weekend WeekendMidday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening MiddayRegion Good Good Good Good Good Good Get RoadwayWeather RanWeather Ran Weather Weather Ri SnwWeather Ri Snw Weather RvrTg ImpactFestEntire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZR01 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R02 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R03 4:00 4:20 3:50 4:10 3:50 4:00 4:25 5:10 3:50 3:55 5:10 3:50 3:50 4:002-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 MilesR04 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35ROS 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R06 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R07 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R08 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R09 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35RIO 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R11 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R12 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R13 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35S-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ BoundaryR14 3:55 4:20 3:50 3:55 3:50 3:55 4:25 5:10 3:50 3:55 5:10 3:40 3:50 3:55RIS 4:00 4:20 3:50 3:55 3:50 4:00 4:25 5:10 3:50 3:55 5:10 3:50 3:50 4:00R16 3:50 4:15 3:45 4:10 3:50 4:00 4:20 5:10 3:50 3:50 5:10 3:45 3:50 3:50R17 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R18 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R19 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R20 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R21 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R22 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R23 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R24 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R25 4:00 4:20 3:50 3:55 3:50 3:55 4:25 5:10 3:50 3:55 5:10 3:50 3:50 4:00Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-11KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer SummerMidweek Midweek MidweekMidweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weekend dweek MidweekWeekend Weekend WeekendMidday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening MiddayRegion Good Good Good Good Good Good Great RoadwayWahrRain WahrRain Wahr eterRain Snow WahrRain Snow WahrRiver Tug IpcWeather Weather Rain Weather Weather TWeather Weather est ImpaStaged Evacuation  Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 MilesR26 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R27 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R28 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R29 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R30 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R31 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R32 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R33 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R34 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R36 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-12KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated RegionSummer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer SummerMidweek Weekend Miwe Midweek Weekend MidweekMiwe MdekWeekend Weekend WeekendMidday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening MiddayGreatRegion Good Ran Good Ran Good Good Ri Snw Good Ri Snw Good RvrTgRoadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather T ImpactFestUn-staged Evacuation  Mile and S-Mile RegionR01 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1 :1:251:25 1:45 [1:25 1:25 1:20R02 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 J 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20Un-staged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-MilesR04 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20ROS 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R06 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R07 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R08 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R09 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20RIO 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R11 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R12 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R13 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20Staged Evacuation  Mile RegionR14 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1 1:20 1:20 1 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20Staged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 MilesR1S 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R16 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R16 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R17 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R18 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R19 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R21 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R22 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R23 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R24 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-13KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated RegionRegion Good GodGod Good GoTdGo ra RoadwaySummer RaWter Summer W in Snow Rain Snow ter iver Tug ImpactWeterWahe an eterWate eahrWete Fest _____SUn-staged Evacuation  Mile and 5-Mile RegionRO 3:01 3:3013:301 3:30 3:3013:30 3:30 [5:00 [3:3013:3015:0013:30 T3:30 33R0 0 3:30 3:30 1 3:30 3:30 3:30 1 3:30 1 5:00 13:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30Un-staged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-MilesR04 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30ROS 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R06 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R07 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30ROB 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R09 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30RIO 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R11 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R12 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R13 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30_ 3:30_ 3:30_ 3:30 :30 :30 :30 :30Staged Evacuation-_5
-Mile Region3 _ _ _0:30R14 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 1 3:30 [ 3:30 [ 5:00 1 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30Staged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 MilesR1S 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R16 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R16 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R17 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R18 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R19 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R20 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R21 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R22 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R23 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R24 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-14KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation RegionsISub-Area
_ _ _ _ _ILl IL2 IL3 IL4 1IL5 1IL6 I IAMSub-AreaI IA3 I IM I lA5 I IA6 I IA7 I iA8 I iA9 I IA10 I IAll I IA12IRegionR14R15R16R17R18R19WindDirection Toward:NNNENE, ENEEESE,SESSEi lLl IL2 IL3 IL4 ILS IL6 IA1 IA2 IA3 IM IAS IA6 IA7i I1A 19 IAlO Il IA12Sub-Area--IQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-15KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-16KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-17KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-2. QDC Shadow RegionQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-18KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 30 Minutes after the Advisory to EvacuateQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-19KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to EvacuateQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-20KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 C o n g e s t i o n P a t t e r n s a t 0 1 : 3 0 -, t * .....s ...........
.i .-- .' ..---. -; -.- -.. -, ...... .I,- {.'. "tt ..- 7 .- 1 ".. y "- ,/' " ", '' '.. ... .IA7 84 ILA/ 1;~ ~ ~ ~" I Aa ......Y- -..<-K2 I;; .....;-'Do*u .... x, J -" " '> "- d,. ... k ..... ... .,+ .. .......... --Legen .......Fiue7-.CngsinPatrs tIHurad30Mnts fe1teAvso&0 EautO, ucl itis GeeraingStaion
-21KLDEngieerngP.I Evauaio Time Rockat Rev.l 0&#xfd; Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours and 15 Minutes after the Advisory to EvacuateQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-22KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Congestion Pattem s at 03:15 ./ .,"... .. .."" -....../ / --, :il :.:- 4A9... .............
i ~ ~ D .: 'tt .-: -' : 1.,",-',. ,N.;" twLegenow Af P5 [A ,ILAre , .cAfA 2, 5,1, 5MieRigFigure -7. Conestion atternsat3Horan15MntsferheAvoytoEcue O,~~~~V ua iisGnrtngSain724L Egneig .:4Acato TieEsiat ev Congestion Patterns at 03:45 ..54.IAI -1 ... ..... ....--V-U
~~W78-7. 7-6" LudCte eneraigSaind 7-24"-KIDEngineering.....P.C.
EvacuationioTime.Estimate ReM.l0Fiur 78 Cngsto Pttrn t Hur nd45Miuesaferte dvsoytoEvcut Evanono TieEsiae 2e 78 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ0 90% 0 100%hO4-Umwa,-'5a,04540353025201510S00 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240270Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 1 for Region R03Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ0 90% 0 100%OnC4.(UUwIna,Ua,CIn04540353025201510500 30 60 90 120 10s 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 2 for Region R03Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-25KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)-2-Mile Region Mile Region I Entire EPZ 9 90%* 100%4540M 35m 30M 25o 20* -15> 10500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 3 for Region R03Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%454035m '7 30U,I 20* E 15U 0> 10500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 4 for Region R037-26 KID Engineering, P.C.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-26KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek,
: Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% a 100%4540an 35.1_S30U5o2015 15> 10500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 5 for Region R03Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90%9 100%anU5'=IA-f:.4540353025201510500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 6 for Region R03Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-27KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ* 90% 0 100%4.rIAC'UIn0I-4540353025201510500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 7 for Region R03Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%-Uj0C504540353025201510500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 2Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 330Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 8 for Region R03Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-28KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ
* 90%0 100%LU:E-oC'U0I-504540353025201510500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 9 for Region R03Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%4540to 35'7 30r 250 20* 15> 10500 30 60 90 120 150 180 2107Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240270Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 10 for Region R03Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-29KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 9 90% 0 100%MLU:EU'-UCEuIA0-CI-504540353025201510500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 11 for Region R03Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek,
: Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%4540bA 35t- 330E 25IMFA 207 15> 10500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 12 for Region R037-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-30KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek,
: Weekend, Evening, Good, Special Event(Scenario 13)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ* 90% 0 100%4540a0.35S30250o 202- 1510500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240270Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 13 for Region R03Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact(Scenario 14)-2-Mile Region Mile Region -Entire EPZ0 90% 0 100%an.6-LU-o4A4540353025201510500 30 60 90 120 150 180 210Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)240 270Figure 7-22. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 14 for Region R03Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate7-31KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation timeestimates for transit vehicles.
The demand for transit service reflects the needs of threepopulation groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities suchas schools, medical facilities, and correctional facilities; and (3) homebound special needspopulation.
These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of"passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream isrepresented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.
Specifically:
* Bus drivers must be alerted* They must travel to the bus depot* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facilityThese activities consume time. It is estimated that bus mobilization time will averageapproximately 90 minutes for schools and 120 minutes (210 for snow) for transit dependent buses extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at thefacility to be evacuated.
During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these isthe action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from schoolprior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families.
Virtually all studies ofevacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting families is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process.
The currentpublic information disseminated to residents of the QODC EPZ indicates that schoolchildren willbe evacuated to relocation
: centers, and that parents should pick schoolchildren up at therelocation centers.As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a fast breaking general emergency.
Therefore, children are evacuated to relocation centers.
Picking up children at school could add to trafficcongestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, whichmay have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population.
This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children willbe picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002),
to present an upper boundestimate of buses required.
This study assumes that pre-schools and day-care centers are alsoevacuated to relocation centers and parents will pick up these children at the relocation centers.Quad Cities Generating Station 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to:* Estimate demand for transit service* Estimate time to perform all transit functions
* Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the relocation centers andreception centers8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand EstimateThe telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of thepopulation requiring transit service based on the percentage of households with no vehicleavailable.
Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note:* Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.
For thoseevacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered,separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren.
The actual need fortransit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.
However,estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent personswill evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use theirown cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends (IES, 1981). Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing.
We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transitdependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.
The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on anestimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transitvehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average (roughly equivalent to 40 adults).
If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then thenumber of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 x10) = 27. On this basis, the averageload factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent.
Thus, if the actual demand for serviceexceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still beaccommodated by the available bus seating capacity.
[20 + (32 x 10)] + 40 x 1.5 = 1.00Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 404 people. Therefore, a total of14 bus runs are required to transport this population to reception centers.Quad Cities Generating Station 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring publictransit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the QDC EPZ:P = (EPZ Population
+ Average HH Size of EPZ) x % of HH with 0 Vehiclesx Average HH Size of HH with 0 VehiclesP = (46,387 + 2.24) x 3.9% x 1.00 = 808B = (0.5 x P) + 30 = 14According to the telephone survey results, 3.9% of households do not have access to a vehicle(Figure F-2); there are 1.00 people per house -on average -in households with no vehiclesavailable.
The estimate of transit-dependent population in Table 8-1 far exceeds the number of registered transit-dependent persons in the EPZ as provided by Exelon (discussed below in Section 8.5).This is consistent with the findings of NUREG/CR-6953, Volume 2, in that a large majority of thetransit-dependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants does not register with theirlocal emergency response agency.8.2 School Population
-Transit DemandTable 8-2 presents the school and preschool population and transportation requirements forthe direct evacuation of all facilities within the EPZ for the 2012 school year. The column inTable 8-2 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required for each schoolunder the following set of assumptions and estimates:
* No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (asdiscussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002),
the estimate of buses required forschool evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.
Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for primary schools and 50for middle and high schools.Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in theirprivate vehicles.
No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.It is recommended that the counties in the EPZ introduce procedures whereby the schools arecontacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot, to ascertain the current estimate ofstudents to be evacuated.
In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools willreflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high schoolstudents who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities).
Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to childrenbeing picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or thosepersons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.
Quad Cities Generating Station 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 8-3 presents a list of the relocation centers for each school and preschool in the EPZ.Students will be transported to these schools where they will be subsequently retrieved bytheir respective families.
8.3 Medical Facility DemandTable 8-4 presents the census of medical facilities in the EPZ. A total of 724 people have beenidentified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities.
The current census for each facilitywas provided by Exelon and county emergency management personnel.
This data includes thenumber of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden patients at each facility.
The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table8-4. The number of ambulance runs is determined by assuming that 2 patients can beaccommodated per ambulance trip; the number of wheelchair van runs assumes 4 wheelchairs per trip and the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip.8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Dependent PeopleEPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if school is in session at the timeof the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency.
In the event that the allocation ofbuses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat"inefficient",
or if there is a shortfall of available
: drivers, then there may be a need for somebuses to return to the EPZ from the reception center after completing their first evacuation trip,to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees.
For this reason, theETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transitevacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R03(the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in theimpacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service thetransit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should bedispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position toboard the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather andadverse weather conditions.
Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transitoperations.
The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure8-1.Activity:
Mobilize Drivers (A--)B3C)
Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive atthe facility to be evacuated.
It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, school bus drivers would likely require 90minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities.
Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -100 minutes whenraining, 110 minutes when snowing.Quad Cities Generating Station 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Activity:
Board Passengers (C-)D)A loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses isassumed.For multiple stops along a pick-up route, (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of traveltime must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. Thetime, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed,"v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and finalspeed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:
T=t+B+t=B+2t=B+
2,aWhere B = Dwell time to service passengers.
The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during thedeceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v2/a. If the bus had not stopped to servicepassengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s,would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e. pickup time, P) to service passengers is:a aAssigning reasonable estimates:
B = 50 seconds:
a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, toboard per stopS v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec* a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rateThen, P = 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops perrun, for good weather.
It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; totalloading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.Activity:
Travel to EPZ Boundary (D->E)School and Preschool Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by Exelon and are summarized in Table 8-5.Also included in the table is the number of buses needed to evacuate
: schools, medical facilities, transit-dependent population, and homebound special needs (discussed below in Section 8.5).These numbers indicate there are sufficient resources available to evacuate all transit-dependent people in a single wave.The buses servicing the schools and preschools are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105minutes after the advisory to evacuate
-90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loadingtime -in good weather.
The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define busroutes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate relocation center. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting theseries of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary.
Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes the route length andoutputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified busQuad Cities Generating Station 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network inAppendix K for node locations).
Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory toevacuate for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, asfollows:Average Speed(-r)
Z&#xfd;= length of link i (mi) 60 min.X hr.Delay on link i (min.) + length of link i (mi.) 60 min.L=1(mi.x 1 hr.current speed on link iThe average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of theschools and preschools in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for schoolevacuation, and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent
: persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary wascomputed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZboundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary tothe Relocation center or Reception Center was computed assuming an average speed of 55mph, 50 mph, and 45 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.
Speeds were reducedin Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 to 55 mph (50 mph for rainand 45 mph for snow) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 45 mph, as the school busspeed limit for state routes in Illinois and Iowa is 55 mph.Table 8-7 (good weather),
Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools and preschools inthe EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2)The elapsed time until the bus reaches the relocation center. The evacuation time out of theEPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with Activities A->B-->C, C--)D, and D--E(For example:
90 min. + 15 + 8 = 1:55 for Riverdale Elementary School, in good weather,rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes).
The evacuation time to the Relocation center isdetermined by adding the time associated with Activity E--F (discussed below), to this EPZevacuation time.Evacuation of Transit-Dependent Population The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will bescheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization.
As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters),
the majority (89%)of evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes,approximately 120 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate (210 minutes for snow).Quad Cities Generating Station 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes,then proceed out of the EPZ. The county emergency plans do not define bus routes to servicethe transit dependent population.
The 6 bus routes shown graphically in Figure 8-2 anddescribed in Table 8-10 were designed as part of this study to service the major routes througheach Sub-area with a resident population greater than 500. It is assumed that residents willwalk to and congregate along these routes to flag down a bus, and that they can arrive at thestop/route within the 120 minute and 130 minute bus mobilization time during good weatherand rain, respectively (210 minutes in snow).Due to the high transit-dependent population of Clinton, IA, more buses are required for Sub-area IAll than any other Sub-area (Table 8-10). As such, two unique routes were developed forSub-area IAll.As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated witheach stop. Longer pickup times of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow,respectively.
The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using theUNITES software.
Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speedscomputed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for schoolevacuation.
Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation timeestimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain andsnow, respectively.
For example, the ETE for the bus route servicing Sub-areas IL2 and IL4 iscomputed as 120 + 13 + 30 = 2:45 for good weather.
Here, 13 minutes is the time to travel 10.4miles at 46.3 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route starting at 120minutes.
The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is ashortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.
Activity:
Travel to Reception Centers (E--F)The distances from the EPZ boundary to the reception centers are measured using GIS softwarealong the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the reception center. The reception centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZdoes not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must beconsidered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general population.
Assumed busspeeds of 55 mph, 50 mph, and 45 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will beapplied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.
Activity:
Passengers Leave Bus (F--G)A bus can empty within 5 minutes.
The driver takes a 10 minute break.Activity:
Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G->C)The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people whoQuad Cities Generating Station 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 mobilized more quickly.
The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and thebus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel timeto the reception center.The second-wave ETE for the bus route servicing Sub-area 112 and IL4 is computed as follows forgood weather:Bus arrives at reception center at 2:55 in good weather (2:45 to exit EPZ + 10 minutetravel time to reception center).Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15minutes.Bus returns to EPZ and completes second route: 10 minutes (equal to travel time toreception center) + 13 minutes (10.4 miles @ 47.6 mph) + 11 minutes (10.4 miles @55 mph)= 34 minutes* Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.* Bus exits EPZ at time 2:45 + 0:10 + 0:15 + 0:34 + 0:30 = 4:15 (rounded to nearest 5minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.
The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes areprovided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a one-wave evacuation oftransit-dependent people is slightly longer than the ETE for the general population at the 90thpercentile.
The two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people is 1 to 2 hours longer thanthe ETE for the general population at the 90th percentile.
The relocation of transit-dependent evacuees from the reception centers to congregate carecenters, if PEMA and the counties decide to do so, is not considered in this study.Evacuation of Medical Facilities The evacuation of these facilities is similar to school evacuation except:Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany thepatients.
Wheelchair vans can accommodate 4 patients, and ambulances canaccommodate 2 patients.
Loading times of 1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes per patient are assumed forambulatory
: patients, wheelchair bound patients, and bedridden
: patients, respectively.
Table 8-4 indicates that 19 bus runs, 68 wheelchair van runs and 11 ambulance runs are neededto service all of the medical facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, the counties cancollectively provide 403 buses, 122 wheelchair accessible vans, and 70 ambulances.
Thus, thereare sufficient resources to evacuate the ambulatory, wheelchair-bound, and bed-ridden persons from the medical facilities in a single wave.As is done for the schools, it is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes (100 inrain and 110 in snow). Specially trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) willQuad Cities Generating Station 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.
Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90 minute timeframe.
Table 8-14 through Table 8-16 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for goodweather, rain, and snow. Average speeds output by the model for Scenario 6 (Scenario 7 forrain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph forsnow), are used to compute travel time to EPZ boundary.
The travel time to the EPZ boundaryis computed by dividing the distance to the EPZ boundary by the average travel speed. The ETEis the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of theEPZ. Concurrent loading on multiple buses, wheelchair vans, and ambulances at capacity isassumed such that the maximum loading times for buses, wheelchair vans and ambulances are30, 20 and 30 minutes, respectively.
All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.
Forexample, the calculation of ETE for Alverno Health Care Facility with 92 ambulatory residents during good weather is:ETE: 90 + 1 x 30 + 46 = 166 min. or 2:50 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.It is assumed that medical facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate host medicalfacilities outside of the EPZ. Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passingthrough the reception center before arriving at the host facility are not considered in thisanalysis.
8.5 Special Needs Population The special needs population was estimated from the transit-dependent population dataprovided by local OROs. There is 85 homebound special needs people within the EPZ whorequire transportation assistance to evacuate.
Using average percentages from Table 8-4,approximately 52 transit dependent people would require a bus, 31 would require wheelchair capable vehicle, and 1 would require an ambulance.
ETE for Homebound Special Needs PersonsTable 8-17 summarizes the ETE for homebound special needs people. The table is categorized by type of vehicle required and then broken down by weather condition.
The table takes intoconsideration the deployment of multiple vehicles to reduce the number of stops per vehicle.It is conservatively assumed that ambulatory and wheelchair bound special needs households are spaced 3 miles apart and bedridden households are spaced 5 miles apart. Van and busspeeds approximate 20 mph between households and ambulance speeds approximate 15 mphin good weather (10% slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). Mobilization times of 90 minuteswere used (100 minutes for rain, and 110 minutes for snow). Loading times of 5 minute, 5minutes, and 15 minutes per person are assumed for ambulatory people, wheelchair boundpeople, and bedridden people, respectively.
The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZboundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45mph for snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. ETE is computed bysumming mobilization time, loading time at first household, travel to subsequent households, Quad Cities Generating Station 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 loading time at subsequent households, and travel time to EPZ boundary.
All ETE are roundedto the nearest 5 minutes.For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 52ambulatory households need to be serviced.
Given a bus capacity of 30 people, 2 buses areneeded to service the population.
While only 2 buses are needed from a capacity perspective, if 8 buses are deployed to service these special needs HH, then each would require about 7stops. The following outlines the ETE calculations:
: 1. Assume 8 buses are deployed, each with about 7 stops, to service a total of 52 HH.2. The following outlines the ETE calculations:
: a. Bus arrive at the first pickup location:
90 minutesb. Load HH members at first pickup: 5 minutesc. Travel to subsequent pickup locations:
6 @ 9 minutes = 54 minutesd. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations:
6 @ 5 minutes = 30 minutese. Travel to EPZ boundary:
12 minutes (5 miles @ 24.6 mph).ETE: 90 + 5 + 54 + 30 + 12 = 3:15 rounded up to the nearest 5 minutesTable 8-5 indicates that there are sufficient transportation resources available in the EPZ toevacuate the medical facilities and the homebound special needs population simultaneously.
The average ETE for homebound special needs is approximately 30 minutes longer than thegeneral population ETE at the 90th percentile for a single wave.8.6 Correctional Facilities As detailed in Table E-7, there is one correctional facility within the EPZ -Clinton County Jail.The total inmate capacity of these facilities is 32 persons.
According to the discussions withExelon and local OROs, the inmates would shelter-in-place if an evacuation were ordered.
Thus,ETE are not computed for this facility.
Quad Cities Generating Station 8-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 (Subsequent Wave)TimeA Advisory to EvacuateB Bus Dispatched from DepotC Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up RouteD Bus Departs for Reception CenterE Bus Exits RegionF Bus Arrives at Reception Center/Host FacilityG Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation ServiceA-->B Driver Mobilization B->C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up RouteC-->D Passengers Board the BusD---E Bus Travels Towards Region BoundaryE---F Bus Travels Towards Reception Center Outside the EPZF--*G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a BreakFigure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Quad Cities Generating Station 8-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure 8-2. QDC Transit-Dependent Bus RoutesQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-12KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates Avrg Percent.Percent~~~~S H Sie TtlPope PpltoAvrg H. wit Toa H for HH Pepe Etmtd Reurn eurnQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-13KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-2. School and Preschool Population Demand Estimates 1L6 1 Riverdale Senior High School3467116 Riverdale Junior High School 250 4116 Riverdale Elementary School 599 9Rock Island County Subtotal:
1,195 20Clinton CounyIAll Ashford College 340 0IAll Bluff Elementary School 507 8IA5 Camanche Elementary School 381 6IA5 Camanche High School 326 6IA5 Camanche Middle School 345 7IAll Clinton Community College 400 0IAll Clinton Community College Technology Center 100 0IAll Clinton High School 1,250 23IAll Eagle Heights Elementary School 580 9IAll Jefferson Elementary School 471 7IAll Lincoln High School 98 2IAll Lyons Middle School 342 7IAll Prince of Peace Catholic School 291 6IAll Washington Middle School 630 12IAll Whittier Elementary School 309 5Clinton County Subtotal:
6,370 98_Scott CountyIA12 Bridgeview Elementary School 331 5IA12 Cody School 332 5IA12 Pleasant Valley Junior High School 572 11IA6 Virgil Grissom Elementary School 264 4SoffCounty Sub Total 1,499Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-14KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Sub BuseRock Isl and Co u ntyIL6 Life's Little Miracles Inc. 20 1IL6 Messiah Lutheran Church Preschool 18 1Rock Island County Subtotal.
38 2Clinton County____
IAll Ashford Pre-School 50 1IAll Clinton Head Start 88 2IA5 Kids' First Academy 133 2IAll Mercy Child & Pre 147 3IAll St John Lutheran Preschool 24 1IAll Stay & Play Daycare 52 1IAll Unity Christian 50 1IAll Wee School 90 2IAll YWCA 92 2IAll YWCA Children's Center 103 2IAll Zion Day Care 115 2Clinton County Subtotal:
944 19Scott County _05_IA12 Kiddie Karrasel Academy 105 2rnftf rnnt, Cih Tntnl lna I 2Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-15KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-3. School and Preschool Relocation Facilities Schoo Reoato CenteLife's Little Miracles Inc.Messiah Lutheran Church Preschool Riverdale Elementary SchoolRiverdale Junior High SchoolRock Island High SchoolRiverdale Senior High SchoolIowaClno ContAshford CollegeNortheast Senior High SchoolAshford Pre-School Bluff Elementary School North High SchoolCamanche Elementary SchoolCamanche High School Central High SchoolCamanche Middle SchoolClinton Community CollegeClinton Community College Technology Northeast Senior High SchoolCenterClinton Head StartClinton High School West High SchoolEagle Heights Elementary SchoolJefferson Elementary SchoolKids' First Academy North Scott Senior High SchoolLincoln High School DeWitt Central Middle/ High SchoolLyons Middle School Calamus/Wheatland Elementary SchoolMercy Child & Pre Northeast Senior High SchoolPrince of Peace Catholic School Wood Junior High SchoolSt John Lutheran Preschool Stay & Play Daycare Northeast Senior High SchoolUnity Christian Washington Middle School Calamus/Wheatland High SchoolWee School Northeast Senior High SchoolWhittier Elementary School North High SchoolYWCAYWCA Children's Center Northeast Senior High SchoolZion Day CareQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-16KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 School, ReoainCne Bridgeview Elementary SchoolCody SchoolKiddie Karrasel Academy North Scott Junior High SchoolPleasant Valley Junior High SchoolVirgil Grissom Elementary SchoolQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-17KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-4. Medical Facility Transit DemandWhel Wheel.. .-Sub- Curn 0.bu chi Bed Bus 0chair~IAll Alverno Health Care Facility Clinton 126 30 92 4 1 23 2IAll Bickford Cottage Clinton 37 27 10 0 1 3 0IAll Country Side Clinton 33 33 0 0 2 0 0IAll Eagle Point Nursing and Rehabilitation Center Clinton 69 58 10 1 2 3 1IAll Lyons Manor Clinton 50 41 8 1 2 2 1IAll Mercy Hospital Clinton 66 43 19 4 2 5 2IAll Mercy Living North Clinton 67 9 58 0 1 15 0IAll Mercy Living South Clinton 79 23 48 8 1 12 4IAll Park Towers Clinton 71 59 11 1 2 3 1IAll Prairie Hills Clinton 79 77 2 0 3 1 0IAll Sarah Harding Retirement Clinton 47 44 3 0 2 1 0Quad Cities Generating Station 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources Clinton County, IA 1 50 1 60 19 1Scott County, IA 149 60 22Rock Island, IL 100 2 4Whiteside, IL 104 0 35Schools and Preschools/Daycares (Table 8-2): 166 0 0Medical Facilities (Table 8-4): 19 68 11Transit-Dependent Population (Table 8-10): 14 0 0Homebound Special Needs (Section 8.5): 8 8 1Correctional Facilities (Section 8.6): Shelter-In-Place Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-19KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions BusNube De scito Noe Trvese fro Rout Str to BoudarCamanche Elementary School, 848, 938, 623, 192, 618, 619, 620, 621, 622, 97, 96, 100,1 Middle School, & High School 401, 101, 102, 1032 Mercy Living North and Mercy 134,135,136,579,555,556,557,583,558,559 Living SouthSara Harding Retirement and 611, 612, 613, 614, 132, 133, 134, 135, 136, 579, 555,Mercy Child and Preschool 556, 557, 583, 558, 5594 Alverno Health 413, 412, 411, 580, 557, 583, 558, 5595 Bickford Cottage 411, 580, 557, 583, 558, 5596 Country Side and Wee School 412, 411, 580, 557, 583, 558, 5597iagle Point "Nursing
& KenaD,Messiah Preschool, St JohnLutheran Preschool, YWCA DayCare, and Lyons Manor579,555,556,557,583,558,559 8 Park Towers 127, 128, 129, 130, 742, 131, 132, 133, 134, 135, 136,579, 555, 556, 557, 583, 558, 559Prairie Hills, Zion Day Care, and 410,580,557,583,558,559 YWCA Day CareRiverdale Elementary School,10 Middle S lmenHigh School 797, 800, 439, 503, 440, 465, 464, 79, 78, 943Middle School, & High School376, 378, 379, 377, 380, 375, 374, 287, 280, 303, 281,11 Grissom Elementary School89891Lincoln High School, Clinton High12 School and Bluff Elementary 605, 604, 98, 97, 96, 100, 401, 101, 102, 103School13 Eagle Heights Elementary School 98, 97, 96, 100, 401, 101, 102, 103Lyons Middle School, Prince ofPeace High School, Whittier14 Elementary School, Jefferson 99, 625, 604, 98, 97, 96, 100, 401, 101, 102, 103Elementary School, andWashington Middle School15 Pleasant Valley Jr High School 819, 707, 82016 Bridgeview Elementary School 443, 175, 164, 442, 40, 39, 38, 445289, 288, 159, 160, 161, 162, 163, 176, 175, 164, 442,17 Cody Elementary School40393845 40, 39, 38, 445848, 849, 624, 195, 196, 99, 109, 110, 111, 112, 922,18 Kids' First Academy 113, 114, 115, 116, 127, 128, 129, 130, 742, 131, 132,133, 134, 135, 136, 579, 555, 556, 557, 583, 558, 55919 IECT Clinton Head St 131, 132, 133, 134, 135, 136, 579, 555, 556, 557, 583,558, 55920 Ashford Pre-School 612, 413, 412, 411, 580, 557, 583, 558, 559Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-20KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Bus .** .6 I* ..21Stay & Play Day Care and UnityChristian 110, 111, 112, 922, 113, 114, 115, 116, 127, 128, 129,130, 742, 131, 132, 133, 134, 135, 136, 579, 555, 556,557,583,558,559 22 Life's Little Miracles Inc. 841,232,233,234,235 23 Kiddie Karrasel 161,162,163,176,175,164,442,40,39,38,445 24 US 61 South 920, 919, 918, 24, 23, 22, 21, 20, 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14,13, 344, 12, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 1, 25, 26, 2725 US 61 North 27, 26, 25, 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 344, 13,14,15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 918, 919, 92028, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37, 445, 38, 39, 40, 41,805, 42, 43, 44, 45, 46, 47, 48, 49, 5027 1-80Westbound 50,49,48,47,46,45,44,43,42,805,41,40,39,38, 445,37,36,35,34,33,32,31,30,29,28 28 1-74 Eastbound 51, 52, 53, 936, 54, 55, 902, 905, 917, 903, 90429 1-74 Westbound 904, 903, 917, 905, 902, 55, 54, 936, 53, 52, 5195, 94, 93, 92, 91, 90, 89, 88, 87, 86, 85, 84, 83, 82, 81,30 1-88 Westbound 80, 79, 78, 943, 77, 76, 75, 74, 73, 72, 71, 70, 69, 68, 67,6666, 67, 68, 69, 70, 71, 72, 73, 74, 75, 76, 77, 943, 78, 79,31 1-88 Eastbound 80, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89, 90, 91, 92, 93, 94,9532 112 & 1-4 201,202,203,204,205,206,207,208,209,210,211, 527,528,889 33 I16 223,224,225,226,227,228,229,230,231,841,232, 233,234,235 34 IA6 & IA12 152, 153, 154, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 160, 161, 162,163,176,175,164,442,40,39,38,445 181,182,183,184,185,186,187,197,188,189,198, 35 IA3 & IA5 190,191,192,618,619,830,831,832,833,834,354, 355,35698,604,625,99,109,110,111,730,844,609,610,611, 36 IAll (1) 612,613,614,132,133,134,135,136,137,138,139, 140,141111, 112, 922, 113, 114, 115, 116, 127, 128, 129, 130,37 IAl (2) 742,548,549,550,551,552,133,414,413,412,411, 580,557,583,558,559 Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-21KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-7. School and Preschool Evacuation Time Estimates
-Good WeatherI Riverdale Elementary SchoolI 90Riverdale Junior High SchoolIRiverdale Senior Hi~yh School15 6.3 46.6 815 6.3 46.6 815 6.1 46.6 825.7 2825.7 2825.7 28I IBluff Elementary School 90 15 13.7 49.6 17Camanche Elementary School 90 15 13.9 46.7 18Camanche High School 90 15 14.3 46.7 18Camanche Middle School 90 15 14.3 46.7 18Clinton High School 90 15 14.4 49.6 17Eagle Heights Elementary School 90 15 16.7 50.3 20Jefferson Elementary School 90 15 16.1 49.2 20Lincoln High School 90 15 13.2 49.6 16Lyons Middle School 90 15 18.6 49.1 23Prince of Peace Catholic School 90 15 15.5 49.2 19Washington Middle School 90 15 16.1 49.2 20Whittier Elementary School 90 15 16.9 49.1 21Scott CountyBridgeview Elementary School 90 15 3.9 55.0 4Cody School 90 15 6.6 35.2 11Pleasant Valley Junior High School 90 15 0.2 27.7 0Virgil Grissom Elementary School 90 15 10.3 52.2 12School Maximum for EPZ:School Average for EPZ:21.824.724.724.726.821.821.85.121.223.521.221.82427272729242462326232413.7 1513.7 1516.3 184.3 5School Maximum:School Average:Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-22KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-23KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-8. School and Preschool Evacuation Time Estimates
-RainRiverdale Elementary School100I 20 I 6.3 1 44.5 I9Riverdale Junior High School 100 20 6.3 44.5 9Riverdale Senior High School 100 20 1 44.7 1.......o CounyBluff Elementary School 100 20 13.7 44.7 18Camanche Elementary School 100 20 13.9 42.4 20Camanche High School 100 20 14.3 42.6 20Camanche Middle School 100 20 14.3 42.6 20Clinton High School 100 20 14.4 44.7 19Eagle Heights Elementary School 100 20 16.7 45.1 22Jefferson Elementary School 100 20 16.1 44.4 22Lincoln High School 100 20 13.2 44.7 18Lyons Middle School 100 20 18.6 44.4 25Prince of Peace Catholic School 100 20 15.5 44.4 21Washington Middle School 100 20 16.1 44.4 22Whittier Elementary School 100 1 20 16.9 44.4 23... ... ... .::Scott CountyBridgeview Elementary School 100 20 3.9 50.0 5Cody School 100 20 6.6 29.6 13Pleasant Valley Junior High School 100 20 0.2 44.8 0Virgil Grissom Elementary School 100 20 10.3 47.7 13School Maximum for EPZ:School Average for EPZ:25.7 3125.7 31') C '121.8 2624.7 3024.7 3024.7 3026.8 3221.8 2621.8 265.1 621.2 2523.5 2821.2 2521.8 2613.7 1613.7 1616.3 204.3 5School Maximum:School Average:_
Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-24KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 I Life's Little Miracles Inc.100 20 2.5 43.4 421.321.3Messiah Lutheran Church Preschool 100 20 2.5 _F 6.8 22Clinton CountyAshford Pre-School 100 20 3.5 2.6 82Clinton Head Start 100 20 4.7 5.8 48Kids' First Academy 100 20 11.2 11.3 60Mercy Child & Pre 100 20 6.0 6.2 58St John Lutheran Preschool 100 20 2.8 6.8 25Stay & Play Daycare 100 20 8.1 8.8 55Unity Christian 100 20 7.0 8.6 49Wee School 100 20 3.5 4.4 48YWCA 100 20 5.2 6.3 50YWCA Children's Center 100 20 3.3 6.9 28Zion Day Care 100 20 5.2 6.3 50Scott CountyKiddie Karrasel Academy 100 20 4.1 127.7 9Preschool Maximum for EPZ:Preschool Average for EPZ:10.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.2121212121212121212121213.7 16Preschool Maximum:Preschool Average:Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-25KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-9. School and Preschool Evacuation Time Estimates
-SnowRiverdale Elementary School1 110Riverdale Junior High School 1Riverdale Senior High School 125 6.3 38.2 1025 6.3 38.2 1025 6.1 38.2 1025.7 3425.7 3425.7 34Bluff Elementary School 110 25 13.7 40.5 20Camanche Elementary School 110 25 13.9 38.5 22Camanche High School 110 25 14.3 38.5 22Camanche Middle School 110 25 14.3 38.5 22Clinton High School 110 25 14.4 40.5 21Eagle Heights Elementary School 110 25 16.7 41.0 24Jefferson Elementary School 110 25 16.1 40.3 24Lincoln High School 110 25 13.2 40.4 20Lyons Middle School 110 25 18.6 40.4 28Prince of Peace Catholic School 110 25 15.5 40.3 23Washington Middle School 110 25 16.1 40.3 24Whittier Elementary School 110 25 16.9 40.4 25_________________
______ ____Scott County___
Bridgeview Elementary School 110 25 3.9 45.0 5Cody School 110 25 6.6 40.2 10Pleasant Valley Junior High School 110 25 0.2 40.0 0Virgil Grissom Elementary School 110 25 10.3 42.2 15School Maximum for EPZ:School Average for EPZ:21.824.724.724.726.821.821.85.121.223.521.221.82933333336292972831282913.7 1813.7 1816.3 224.3 6School Maximum:School Average:Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-26KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Life's Little MiuInc.I 110 II 2.5 38.2 421.3 2821.3 28i I.I Irch PolI 110 II 2.5 I6.8 1 23Ashford Pre-School 110 25 3.5 2.6 83Clinton Head Start 110 25 4.7 5.0 56Kids' First Academy 110 25 11.2 9.4 72Mercy Child & Pre 110 25 6.0 5.6 64St John Lutheran Preschool 110 25 2.8 6.8 25Stay & Play Daycare 110 25 8.1 7.4 66Unity Christian 110 25 7.0 7.1 58Wee School 110 25 3.5 3.9 54YWCA 110 25 5.2 5.4 58YWCA Children's Center 110 25 3.3 6.8 29Zion Day Care 110 25 5.2 5.4 58Scott CountyKiddie Karrasel Academy 110 25 4.1 1 43.2 6Preschool Maximum for EPZ:Preschool Average for EPZ:10.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.2141414141414141414141413.7 18Preschool Maximum:Preschool Average:Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-27KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus RoutesN. ofLntRoute ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ I Bue Rot ecito MLIL2 & IL41From plant entrance, follow IL-84 northbound to Garden Plain Road. Make aright turn onto Garden Plain Road and follow to EPZ boundary.
Continue toMorrison High School.10.4IL6 1 Take IL-84 southbound from 171st Ave North through Port Byron and to the EPZ 7.9boundary at Rapids City. Continue to Rock Island High School.From Lost Grove Rd take US-67 South into Le Claire. Make a right turn onto theIA6 & IA12 2 1-80 westbound entrance ramp. Follow 1-80 westbound to the EPZ boundary.
11.0Continue to North Scott Senior High School.From 380th Ave take US-67 north towards Camanche.
Make a right turn onto SWashington Blvd. Continue on S Washington Blvd and make a right onto 4thAve. Follow 4th Ave to the right turn at the end onto 2nd St. Make a right turnIA3 & IAS 2 off of 2nd St onto 9th Ave. Continue on 9th Ave and follow it around the bend to 18.0the left where the road turns into 21st Street. Take 21st Street to 380th Ave andmake a right turn. Follow 380th Ave out of the EPZ. Continue to Northeast Senior High School.Starting at Mill Creek Parkway head east on US-30 towards Clinton.
Make a leftonto S 14th Street. Continue to end and make a right onto S Bluff Blvd. Follow SIAll (1) 4 Bluff Blvd to 2nd Ave S. Make a right onto 2nd Ave S and continue until S 3rd St. 8.9Make a Left onto S 3rd Street and take to the EPZ boundary.
Continue toNortheast Senior High School.Starting at S 14th St drive east on US-30. Follow US 30 around a large bend tothe left and continue north on S 3rd Street. Make a right onto 2nd Ave S andIAll (2) 4 then a left onto US-67. Make a Left onto 13th Ave N and follow until 16th St 7.9NW. Follow 16th St NW to State Road 136. Make a left onto State Road 136 andfollow to the EPZ boundary.
Continue to Northeast Senior High School.Total: 14Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-28KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates
-Good WeatherQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-29KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates
-Rain112 & 1L4 1 130 10.4 41.6 15 40IL6 1 130 7.9 45.6 10 40IA6 & IA12 2 130 11.0 40.1 16 40IA3 & IAS 2 130 18.0 44.1 24 40IAll (1) 4 130 8.9 10.3 52 40IAll (2) 4 130 7.9 5.1 92 40Maximum ETE:Average ETE:9.0 11 5 10 37 4021.5 26 5 10 45 4012.2 15 5 10 41 407.0 8 5 10 52 4012.3 15 5 10 35 409.9 12 5 10 30 40Maximum ETE:Average ETE:Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-30KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates
-SnowI112 & IL4121010.4 1 36.91 17509.0125 1 10 1 4050116 1 210 7.9 39.9 12 50IA6 & IA12 2 210 11.0 41.2 16 50IA3 & IA5 2 210 18.0 39.0 28 50IAll (1) 4 210 8.9 18.8 28 50IAll (2) 4 210 7.9 8.4 56 50Maximum ETE:Average ETE:21.5 29 5 10 48 5012.2 16 5 10 44 507.0 9 5 10 53 5012.3 16 5 10 38 509.9 13 5 10 32 50Maximum ETE:Average ETE:Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-31KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-14. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates
-Good WeatherMoiizto (mi per Toa Loadin Dit To.0 onarAlverno Health Care Ambulatory 90 1 92 30 3.2 46 2:50Facility Wheelchair bound 90 5 4 20 3.2 47 2:40Bedridden 90 15 1 15 3.2 49 2:35Ambulatory 90 1 10 10 2.4 24 2:05Bickford Cottage Wheelchair bound 90 5 10 50 2.4 23 2:45Bedridden 90 15 10 30 2.4 22 2:25Ambulatory 90 1 0 0 5.6 64 2:35Country Side Wheelchair bound 90 5 0 0 5.6 64 2:35Bedridden 90 15 0 0 5.6 64 2:35Eagle Point Nursing and Ambulatory 90 1 10 10 2.9 26 2:10Rehabilitation Center Wheelchair bound 90 5 10 50 2.9 18 2:40Bedridden 90 15 10 30 2.9 22 2:25Ambulatory 90 1 8 8 2.9 26 2:05Lyons Manor Wheelchair bound 90 5 8 40 2.9 21 2:35Bedridden 90 15 8 30 2.9 22 2:25Ambulatory 90 1 19 19 6.0 60 2:50Mercy HospitalWheelchair bound 1 90 1 5 ] 19 [ 75 6.0 29 3:15Bedridden 90 15 191 30 6.0 52 2:55Ambulatory 90 1 58 30 3.9 36 2:40Mercy Living North Wheelchair bound 90 5 58 75 3.9 26 3:15Bedridden 90 15 58 30 3.9 36 2:40Ambulatory 90 1 48 30 6.0 52 2:55Mercy Living South Wheelchair bound 90 5 48 75 6.0 36 3:25Bedridden 90 15 48 30 6.0 52 2:55Ambulatory 90 1 11 11 5.3 52 2:35Park Towers Wheelchair bound 90 5 11 55 5.3 34 3:00Bedridden 90 15 11 30 5.3 45 2:45Quad Cities Generating Station 8-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Ambulatory 90 1 2 2 2.2 18 1:50Prairie Hills Wheelchair bound 90 5 2 10 2.2 19 2:00Bedridden 90 15 2 30 2.2 15 2:15Ambulatory 90 1 3 3 2.6 40 2:15Sarah Harding Retirement Wheelchair bound 90 5 3 15 2.6 34 2:20Bedridden 90 15 3 30 2.6 28 2:30Maximum ETE:3:25Average ETE:2:40Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-33KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-15. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates
-RainAlverno Health Care Ambulatory 100 1 92 30 3.2 46 3:00Facility Wheelchair bound 100 5 4 20 3.2 49 2:50Bedridden 100 15 1 15 3.2 52 2:50Ambulatory 100 1 10 10 2.4 29 2:20Bickford Cottage Wheelchair bound 100 5 10 50 2.4 24 2:55Bedridden 100 15 10 30 2.4 28 2:40Ambulatory 100 1 0 0 5.6 72 2:55Country Side Wheelchair bound 100 5 0 0 5.6 72 2:55Bedridden 100 15 0 0 5.6 72 2:55Eagle Point Nursing and Ambulatory 100 1 10 10 2.9 27 2:20" L.: I: ; Wheelchair bound 100 5 10 50 2.9 20 2:50rnte adIIt LIUI on cen~ IterI ~ I I I IBedridden 1001510302.9232:35Ambulatory 100 1 8 8 2.9 27 2:15Lyons Manor Wheelchair bound 100 5 8 40 2.9 21 2:45Bedridden 100 15 8 30 2.9 24 2:35Ambulatory 100 1 19 19 6.0 58 3:00Mercy Hospital Wheelchair bound 100 5 19 75 6.0 32 3:30Bedridden 100 15 19 30 6.0 54 3:05Ambulatory 100 1 58 30 3.9 37 2:50Mercy Living North Wheelchair bound 100 5 58 75 3.9 28 3:25Bedridden 100 15 58 30 3.9 37 2:50Ambulatory 100 1 48 30 6.0 55 3:05Mercy Living South Wheelchair bound 100 5 48 75 6.0 40 3:35Bedridden 100 15 48 30 6.0 55 3:05Ambulatory 100 1 11 11 5.3 52 2:45Park Towers Wheelchair bound 100 5 11 55 5.3 36 3:15Bedridden 100 15 11 30 5.3 45 2:55Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-34KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 LodngTaelTm Rate o EPMobilzatio (mi pe To .a Lodn Dst To
* Boudr E.Medica Failt Pain (min pesn P.eopl Ti e( i) .0y( i mi)(rAmbulatory 1001222.2192:05Prairie HillsWheelchair bound J 100 5 2 J 10 2.2 [ 22 1 2:15Bedridden 100152302.2222:35Ambulatory 100 1 3 3 2.6 41 2:25Sarah Harding Retirement Wheelchair bound 100 5 3 15 2.6 36 2:35Bedridden 100 15 3 30 2.6 30 2:40Maximum ETE: 3:35Average ETE: 2:50Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-35KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-16. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates
-SnowLodn Trve Time.Ambulatory 110192303.2553:15Alverno Health CareFacilityWheelchair bound 110 J 5 1 4 20 1 3.2 57 3:10Bedridden 110151153.2583:05Ambulatory 110 1 10 10 2.4 33 2:35Bickford Cottage Wheelchair bound 110 5 10 50 2.4 31 3:15Bedridden 110 15 10 30 2.4 32 2:55Ambulatory 110 1 0 0 5.6 85 3:15Country Side Wheelchair bound 110 5 0 0 5.6 85 3:15Bedridden 110 15 0 0 5.6 85 3:15Eagle Point Nursing and Ambulatory 110 1 10 10 2.9 28 2:30Rehabilitation Center Wheelchair bound 110 5 10 50 2.9 27 3:10Bedridden 110 15 10 30 2.9 25 2:45Ambulatory 110 1 8 8 2.9 28 2:30Lyons Manor Wheelchair bound 110 5 8 40 2.9 25 2:55Bedridden 110 15 8 30 2.9 25 2:45Ambulatory 110 1 19 19 6.0 66 3:15Mercy Hospital Wheelchair bound 110 5 19 75 6.0 47 3:55Bedridden 110 15 19 30 6.0 63 3:25Ambulatory 110 1 58 30 3.9 48 3:10Mercy Living North Wheelchair bound 110 5 58 75 3.9 42 3:50Bedridden 110 15 58 30 3.9 48 3:10Ambulatory 110 1 48 30 6.0 71 3:35Mercy Living South Wheelchair bound 110 5 48 75 6.0 55 4:00Bedridden 110 15 48 30 6.0 71 3:35Ambulatory 110 1 11 11 5.3 59 3:00Park Towers Wheelchair bound 110 5 11 55 5.3 49 3:35Bedridden 110 15 11 30 5.3 57 3:20Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-36KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Moiizto (mi pe Tota Lodn Dist. To .0 ondrAmbulatory 1101222.2242:20Prairie HillsWheelchair bound J 110 5 1 1 1 10 2.2 1 26 2:30Bedridden 110152302.2232:45Ambulatory 110 1 3 3 2.6 38 2:35Sarah Harding Retirement Wheelchair bound 110 5 3 15 2.6 34 2:40Bedridden 110 15 3 30 2.6 30 2:50Maximum ETE: 4:00Average ETE: 3:10Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-37KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates Requres 52ice Wete 5im 60 St0 3:30en usqun ondr TBuses5287RainSnow100110560663014133:303:45Good 90 27 12 2:30Wheelchair 31 8 4 Rain 100 5 30 15 14 2:45VansSnow 110 33 13 2:55Good 90 20 12 2:35Ambulances 2 1 2 Rain 100 15 22 15 13 2:45Snow 110 25 12 3:00Maximum ETE: 3:45Average ETE: 3:00Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate8-38KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGYThis section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designedto expedite the movement of evacuating traffic.
The resources required to implement thisstrategy include:* Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of trafficguides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers).
" Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. Thesedevices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic ControlDevices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of theU.S.D.O.T.
All state and most county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD,which is available on-line:
http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to theofficial PDF version.* A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in aformat that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.The functions to be performed in the field are:1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takesthem significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flowof other evacuees.
We employ the terms "facilitate" and "discourage" rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" toindicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function.
There are alwayslegitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated.
For example:" A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other familymembers prior to evacuating.
* An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.
* The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.
The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of soundjudgment by the traffic guide.The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process:1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies in their emergency plansserve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002.
: 2. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment (see Figures 7-3 through7-8).This analysis identifies the best routing and those critical intersections thatexperience pronounced congestion.
Any critical intersections that would benefitfrom traffic or access control which are not already identified in the existingoffsite plans are suggested as additional TCPs and ACPs.Quad Cities Generating Station 9-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
: 3. The existing TCPs and ACPs, and how they were applied in this study, are discussed inAppendix G.4. Prioritization of TCPs and ACPs.Application of traffic and access control at some TCPs and ACPs will have a morepronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs andACPs. For example, TCPs controlling traffic originating from areas in closeproximity to the power plant could have a more beneficial effect on minimizing potential exposure to radioactivity than those TCPs located far from the powerplant. These priorities should be assigned by state/local emergency management representatives and by law enforcement personnel.
The ETE simulations discussed in Section 7.3 indicate that the evacuation routes leaving Clintonare oversaturated and experience pronounced congestion due to the limited capacity of theroadways and the large number of evacuating vehicles.
During preliminary simulations, theintersection of CR Z36 (380th Ave) and CR F12 (Elvira Rd) exhibited significant congestion due tothe 4-way stop control at the intersection.
The intersection of CR Z36 and State Route 136 alsoexhibited pronounced congestion.
Evacuees within Clinton County use CR Z36 northbound toaccess the Northeast Senior High School Reception Center in Goose Lake. These vehicles muststop at the intersection with Route 136 which is also servicing evacuees from Clintonattempting to access the Northeast Senior High School Reception Center. Positioning a trafficcontrol officer at these intersections will override the stop signs and hasten the evacuation ofthese vehicles.
It is recommended that the intersection of CR Z36 and CR F12 and theintersection of CR Z36 and State Route 136 be considered as additional TCPs to facilitate theevacuation of the QDC EPZ. These additional TCPs were included in developing the ETE valuesdocumented in Section 7 after preliminary simulations showed a decrease in ETE of up to twohours and 5 minutes when the intersections were considered as TCPs.The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower andequipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process.
Dynamic Message Signs (DMS)can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information.
DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZto warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away fromthe power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information toevacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems.
Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information.
Internet websites canprovide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins their trip, while onboard navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provideinformation en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit theevacuation process.
Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation
: process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing ACP or TCP locations in theoffsite agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals.
Appendix K, Table K-2 identifies those intersections that were modeled as TCPs.Quad Cities Generating Station 9-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should bereviewed during emergency response training.
The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted anddiverted after 2 hours have elapsed from the ATE.All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation areassumed to be unhindered by personnel manning ACPs and TCPs.Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules andoperations.
Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate9-3KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0}}

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