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#REDIRECT [[RS-14-014, Attachment 2: Kld TR-631, Rev. 0, Quad Cities Generating Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Cover Through Page 5-21]]
| number = ML14128A179
| issue date = 04/08/2014
| title = Attachment 2: Kld TR-631, Rev. 0, Quad Cities Generating Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Cover Through Page 5-21
| author name =
| author affiliation = KLD Engineering, PC
| addressee name =
| addressee affiliation = Exelon Generation Co, LLC, NRC/NMSS, NRC/NRR
| docket = 05000254, 05000265, 07200053
| license number = DPR-029, DPR-030
| contact person =
| case reference number = RS-14-0145
| document report number = KLD TR-631, Rev 0
| package number = ML14128A158
| document type = Evacuation Time Estimate/Report (ETE)
| page count = 104
}}
 
=Text=
{{#Wiki_filter:Attachment 2Quad Cities Generating StationDevelopment of Evacuation Time Estimates Z)KLQUAD CITIES GENERATING STATIONDevelopment of Evacuation Time Estimates Work performed for Exelon Generation, by:KLD Engineering, P.C.1601 Veterans Memorial
: Highway, Suite 340Islandia, NY 11749mailto: kweinisch@kldcompanies.com April 8, 2014Final Report, Rev. 0KLD TR -631 Table of Contents1 INTRODUCTIO N ..................................................................................................................................
1-11.1 Overview of the ETE Process ......................................................................................................
1-21.2 The Quad Cities Generating Station Location
............................................................................
1-31.3 Prelim inary Activities
.................................................................................................................
1-51.4 Com parison w ith Prior ETE Study ..............................................................................................
1-92 STUDY ESTIM ATES AND ASSUM PTIONS .............................................................................................
2-12.1 Data Estim ates ...........................................................................................................................
2-12.2 Study M ethodological Assum ptions ..........................................................................................
2-22.3 Study Assum ptions .....................................................................................................................
2-53 DEM AND ESTIM ATION .......................................................................................................................
3-13.1 Perm anent Residents
.................................................................................................................
3-23.1.1 Special Facilities
.................................................................................................................
3-23.1.2 Colleges and Universities
...................................................................................................
3-33.2 Shadow Population
....................................................................................................................
3-93.3 Transient Population
................................................................................................................
3-123.4 Em ployees ................................................................................................................................
3-173.5 M edical Facilities
......................................................................................................................
3-213.6 Total Dem and in Addition to Perm anent Population
..............................................................
3-213.7 Special Event ............................................................................................................................
3-213.8 Sum m ary of Dem and ...............................................................................................................
3-244 ESTIM ATION OF HIGHW AY CAPACITY
................................................................................................
4-14.1 Capacity Estim ations on Approaches to Intersections
..............................................................
4-24.2 Capacity Estim ation along Sections of Highw ay ........................................................................
4-44.3 Application to the QDC Study Area ............................................................................................
4-64.3.1 Tw o-Lane Roads .................................................................................................................
4-64.3.2 M ulti-Lane Highw ay ...........................................................................................................
4-64.3.3 Freew ays ............................................................................................................................
4-74.3.4 Intersections
......................................................................................................................
4-84.4 Sim ulation and Capacity Estim ation ..........................................................................................
4-85 ESTIM ATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIM E ..........................................................................................
5-15.1 Background
................................................................................................................................
5-15.2 Fundam ental Considerations
.....................................................................................................
5-35.3 Estim ated Tim e Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5 ...................................................
5-65.4 Calculation of Trip Generation Tim e Distribution
....................................................................
5-115.4.1 Statistical Outliers
............................................................................................................
5-125.4.2 Staged Evacuation Trip Generation
.................................................................................
5-155.4.3 Trip Generation for W aterw ays and Recreational Areas .................................................
5-176 DEM AND ESTIM ATION FO R EVACUATION SCENARIOS
.....................................................................
6-17 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATIO N TIM E ESTIM ATES (ETE) ..........................................................
7-1Quad Cities Generating Station i KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 7.1 Voluntary Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation
.........................................................................
7-17.2 Staged Evacuation
......................................................................................................................
7-17.3 Patterns of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation
.....................................................................
7-27.4 Evacuation Rates ........................................................................................................................
7-37.5 Evacuation Tim e Estim ate (ETE) Results ....................................................................................
7-47.6 Staged Evacuation Results .........................................................................................................
7-67.7 Guidance on Using ETE Tables ...................................................................................................
7-68 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES
.............................
8-18.1 Transit Dependent People Dem and Estim ate ............................................................................
8-28.2 School Population
-Transit Dem and .........................................................................................
8-38.3 M edical Facility Dem and ............................................................................................................
8-48.4 Evacuation Tim e Estim ates for Transit Dependent People .......................................................
8-48.5 Special Needs Population
...........................................................................................................
8-98.6 Correctional Facilities
...............................................................................................................
8-109 TRAFFIC M ANAGEM ENT STRATEGY
...................................................................................................
9-110 EVACUATION ROUTES ..................................................................................................................
10-111 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS
...........................................................................
11-112 CONFIRM ATION TIM E ..................................................................................................
.... 12-113 REFERENCES
.................................................................................................................................
13-1List of Appendices A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERM S ..............................................................................
A-1B. DYNAM IC TRAFFIC ASSIGNM ENT AND DISTRIBUTION M ODEL ...................................................
B-1C. DYNEV TRAFFIC SIM ULATION M ODEL ..........................................................................................
C-1C. M ethodology
..............................................................................................................................
C-5C.1.1 The Fundam ental Diagram ............................................................................................
C-5C.1.2 The Sim ulation M odel ...................................................................................................
C-5C.1.3 Lane Assignm ent ..............................................................................................................
C-12C.2 Im plem entation
.......................................................................................................................
C-12C.2.1 Com putational Procedure
................................................................................................
C-12C.2.2 Interfacing w ith Dynam ic Traffic Assignm ent (DTRAD) ..............................................
C-i5D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE
..........................................................................
D-1E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA ......................................................................................................................
E-1F. TELEPHONE SURVEY ...........................................................................................................................
F-1F.1 Introduction
...............................................................................................................................
F-1F.2 Survey Results ............................................................................................................................
F-1F.2.1 Household Dem ographic Results ...........................................................................................
F-2F.2.2 Evacuation Response
.............................................................................................................
F-4F.2.3 Tim e Distribution Results .......................................................................................................
F-6Quad Cities Generating Station ii KID Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 F.3 Conclusions
................................................................................................................................
F-9G. TRAFFIC M ANAGEM ENT PLAN ..........................................................................................................
G-1G.1 Traffic Control Points ................................................................................................................
G-1G.2 Access Control Points ................................................................................................................
G-1H. EVACUATION REGIONS .....................................................................................................................
H-1J. REPRESENTATIVE INPUTS TO AND OUTPUTS FROM THE DYNEV II SYSTEM ..................................
J-1K. EVACUATION ROADW AY NETW ORK ...............................................................................................
K-1L. SUB-AREA BOUNDARIES
....................................................................................................................
L-1M .EVACUATION SENSITIVITY STUDIES ..........................................................................................
M -1M .1 Effect of Changes in Trip Generation Tim es .........................................................................
M -1M.2 Effect of Changes in the Number of People in the Shadow Region Who Relocate
.................
M-2M .3 Effect of Changes in EPZ Resident Population
.........................................................................
M -3M .4 Enhancem ents in Evacuation Tim e ..........................................................................................
M -4N. ETE CRITERIA CHECKLIST
...................................................................................................................
N-1Note: Appendix I intentionally skippediii KLD Engineering, P.C.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateiiiKLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 List of FiguresFigure 1-1. Q D C Locatio n ..........................................................................................................................
1-4Figure 1-2. Q DC Link-Node Analysis Netw ork ...........................................................................................
1-7Figure 2-1. Voluntary Evacuation M ethodology
.......................................................................................
2-4Fig u re 3 -1 .Q D C EPZ ...................................................................................................................................
3-4Figure 3-2. Perm anent Resident Population by Sector .............................................................................
3-7Figure 3-3. Perm anent Resident Vehicles by Sector .................................................................................
3-8Figure 3-4. Shadow Population by Sector ...............................................................................................
3-10Figure 3-5. Shadow Vehicles by Sector ...................................................................................................
3-11Figure 3-6. Transient Population by Sector .............................................................................................
3-15Figure 3-7. Transient V ehicles by Sector .................................................................................................
3-16Figure 3-8. Em ployee Population by Sector ............................................................................................
3-19Figure 3-9. Em ployee Vehicles by Sector ................................................................................................
3-20Figure 4-1. Fundam ental D iagram s ...........................................................................................................
4-9Figure 5-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip ..............................................................
5-5Figure 5-2. Evacuation M obilization Activities
........................................................................................
5-10Figure 5-3. Comparison of Data Distribution and Normal Distribution
......................................................
5-14Figure 5-4. Com parison of Trip Generation Distributions
.......................................................................
5-18Figure 5-5. Comparison of Staged and Un-staged Trip Generation Distributions in the2 to 5 M ile R eg io n ....................................................................................................................................
5-20Figure 6-1. Q D C EPZ Sub-areas
.................................................................................................................
6-6Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation M ethodology
.....................................................................................
7-17Figure 7-2. Q DC Shadow Region .............................................................................................................
7-18Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate
....................................
7-19Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate
............................................
7-20Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour and 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate
..................
7-21Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours and 15 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate
................
7-22Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours and 15 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate
................
7-23Figure 7-8. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours and 45 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate
................
7-24Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 1 for Region R03 ......................................................
7-25Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 2 for Region R03 ....................................................
7-25Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 3 for Region R03 ....................................................
7-26Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 4 for Region R03 ....................................................
7-26Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 5 for Region R03 ....................................................
7-27Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 6 for Region R03 ....................................................
7-27Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 7 for Region R03 ....................................................
7-28Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 8 for Region R03 ....................................................
7-28Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 9 for Region R03 ....................................................
7-29Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 10 for Region R03 ..................................................
7-29Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 11 for Region R03 ..................................................
7-30Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 12 for Region R03 ..................................................
7-30Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 13 for Region R03 ..................................................
7-31Figure 7-22. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 14 for Region R03 ..................................................
7-31Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations
......................................................................
8-11Figure 8-2. Q DC Transit-Dependent Bus Routes .....................................................................................
8-12Figure 10-1. General Population Reception Centers and Relocation Centers ........................................
10-2Quad Cities Generating Station iv KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure 10-2. M ajor Evacuation Routes ....................................................................................................
10-3Figure B-i. Flow Diagram of Sim ulation-DTRAD Interface
........................................................................
B-5Figure C-1. Representative Analysis Network ...........................................................................................
C-4Figure C-2. Fundam ental Diagram s ...........................................................................................................
C-6Figure C-3. A UNIT Problem Configuration with t1  > 0 ..............................................................................
C-6Figure C-4. Flow of Sim ulation Processing (See Glossary:
Table C-3) ..............................................
C-14Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities
.....................................................................................................
D-5Figure E-1. Schools w ithin the QDC EPZ ............................................................................................
E-10Figure E-2. Daycares and Preschools w ithin the QDC EPZ .................................................................
E-11Figure E-3. Correctional and M edical Facilities w ithin the QDC EPZ .................................................
E-12Figure E-4. M ajor Em ployers within the QDC EPZ -Clinton and Cam anche ..........................................
E-13Figure E-5. M ajor Em ployers w ithin the QDC EPZ ..............................................................................
E-14Figure E-6. Recreational Areas within the QDC EPZ ..........................................................................
E-15Figure E-7. Lodging Facilities w ithin the QDC EPZ ...............................................................................
E-16Figure F-1. Household Size in the EPZ .......................................................................................................
F-2Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability
................................................................................................
F-2Figure F-3. Com m uters in Households in the EPZ .....................................................................................
F-3Figure F-4. Num ber of Vehicles Used for Evacuation
...............................................................................
F-4Figure F-5. Com m uter Evacuation Response
........................................................................................
F-5Figure F-6. Tim e Required to Prepare to Leave W ork ...............................................................................
F-6Figure F-7. W ork to Hom e Travel Tim e .....................................................................................................
F-7Figure F-8. Tim e to Prepare Hom e for Evacuation
....................................................................................
F-8Figure F-9. Tim e to Clear Driveway of 6"-8" of Snow ...............................................................................
F-9Figure G-1. Traffic and Access Control Points for the Quad Cities Generating Station ...........................
G-3Figure G-2. Recom m ended TCP -Intersection of Z36 and Fi2 ................................................................
G-4Figure G-3. Recom m ended TCP -Intersection of Z36 and Route 136 .....................................................
G-5Figure H-1. Region R01 .............................................................................................................................
H-4Figure H-2. Region R02 .............................................................................................................................
H-5Figure H-3. Region R03 .............................................................................................................................
H-6Figure H-4. Region R04 .............................................................................................................................
H-7Figure H-5. Region R05 .............................................................................................................................
H-8Figure H-6. Region R06 .............................................................................................................................
H-9Figure H-7. Region R07 ...........................................................................................................................
H-10Figure H-8. Region R08 ...........................................................................................................................
H-11Figure H-9. Region R09 ...........................................................................................................................
H-12Figure H-10. Region RiO .........................................................................................................................
H-13Figure H-11. Region R11 .........................................................................................................................
H-14Figure H-12. Region R12 .........................................................................................................................
H-15Figure H-13. Region R13 .........................................................................................................................
H-16Figure H-14. Region R14 .........................................................................................................................
H-17Figure H-15. Region R15 .........................................................................................................................
H-18Figure H-16. Region R16 .........................................................................................................................
H-19Figure H-17. Region R17 .........................................................................................................................
H-20Figure H-18. Region R18 .........................................................................................................................
H-21Figure H-19. Region R19 .........................................................................................................................
H-22Figure H-20. Region R20 .........................................................................................................................
H-23Figure H-21. Region R21 .........................................................................................................................
H-24Quad Cities Generating Station v KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure H -22. Regio n R22 .........................................................................................................................
H -25Fig u re H -23 .Regio n R 23 .........................................................................................................................
H -26Figure H -24 .Regio n R24 .........................................................................................................................
H -27Figure H -25. Regio n R25 .........................................................................................................................
H -28Figure H -26 .Regio n R26 .........................................................................................................................
H -29Figu re H -27 .Regio n R27 .........................................................................................................................
H -30Fig u re H -28 .R eg io n R 28 .........................................................................................................................
H -3 1Figure H -29 .Regio n R29 .........................................................................................................................
H -32Figure H -30 .Regio n R30 .........................................................................................................................
H -33Fig u re H -3 1. Reg io n R3 1 .........................................................................................................................
H -34Figure H -32. Regio n R32 .........................................................................................................................
H -35Figure H -33. Regio n R33 .........................................................................................................................
H -36Figure H -34 .Regio n R34 .........................................................................................................................
H -37Figu re H -35 .Regio n R 35 .........................................................................................................................
H -38Figure H -36. Regio n R36 .........................................................................................................................
H -39Figure J-1. ETE and Trip Generation:
Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario
: 1) ..............
J-8Figure J-2. ETE and Trip Generation:
Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario
: 2) ...............................
J-8Figure J-3. ETE and Trip Generation:
Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario
: 3) ..............
J-9Figure J-4. ETE and Trip Generation:
Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario
: 4) ..........................
J-9Figure J-5. ETE and Trip Generation:
Summer, Midweek,
: Weekend, Evening,G ood W eather (Scenario
: 5) .....................................................................................................................
J-i0Figure J-6. ETE and Trip Generation:
Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario
: 6) ....... J-10Figure J-7. ETE and Trip Generation:
Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario
: 7) ...........................
J-11Figure J-8. ETE and Trip Generation:
Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario
: 8) .........................
J-11Figure J-9. ETE and Trip Generation:
Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good Weather (Scenario
: 9) ..............
J-12Figure J-1O. ETE and Trip Generation:
Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario
: 10) ...........................
J-12Figure J-li. ETE and Trip Generation:
Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario
: 11) .........................
J-13Figure J-12. ETE and Trip Generation:
Winter, Midweek,
: Weekend, Evening, Good Weather(S ce n a rio 1 2 ) ............................................................................................................................................
J-1 3Figure J-13. ETE and Trip Generation:
Summer, Midweek Weekend,
: Evening, Good Weather,Special Event (Scenario
: 13) ......................................................................................................................
J-14Figure J-14. ETE and Trip Generation:
Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good Weather,Roadw ay Im pact (Scenario
: 14) ................................................................................................................
J-14Figure K-1. Quad Cities Generating Station Link-Node Analysis Network ................................................
K-2Figure K-2. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 1 ......................................................................................
K-3Figure K-3. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 2 ......................................................................................
K-4Figure K-4. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 3 ................................................................................
K-5Figure K-5. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 4 ......................................................................................
K-6Figure K-6. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 5 ......................................................................................
K-7Figure K-7. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 6 ......................................................................................
K-8Figure K-8. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 7 ......................................................................................
K-9Figure K-9. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 8 ..............................................................................
K-10Figure K-10. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 9 .............................................................................
K-liFigure K-11. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 10 ................................................................................
K-12Figure K-12. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 11 ................................................................................
K-13Figure K-13. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 12 ................................................................................
K-14Figure K-14. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 13 ................................................................................
K-15Quad Cities Generating Station vi KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure K-15. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 14 ................................................................................
K-16Figure K-16. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 15 ................................................................................
K-17Figure K-17. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 16 ................................................................................
K-18Figure K-18. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 17 ................................................................................
K-19Figure K-19. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 18 ................................................................................
K-20Figure K-20. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 19 ................................................................................
K-21Figure K-21. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 20 ................................................................................
K-22Figure K-22. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 21 ................................................................................
K-23Figure K-23. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 22 ................................................................................
K-24Figure K-24. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 23 ................................................................................
K-25Figure K-25. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 24 ................................................................................
K-26Figure K-26. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 25 ................................................................................
K-27Figure K-27. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 26 ................................................................................
K-28Figure K-28. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 27 ................................................................................
K-29Figure K-29. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 28 ................................................................................
K-30Figure K-30. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 29 ................................................................................
K-31Figure K-31. Link-Node Analysis Network-Grid 30 ................................................................................
K-32Figure K-32. Link-Node Analysis Network -Grid 31 ................................................................................
K-33Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateviiKLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 List of TablesTable 1-1. Stakeholder Interaction
...........................................................................................................
1-1Table 1-2. H ighw ay Characteristics
...........................................................................................................
1-5Table 1-3. ETE Study Com parisons
............................................................................................................
1-9Table 2-1. Evacuation Scenario Definitions
...............................................................................................
2-3Table 2-2. M odel Adjustm ent for Adverse W eather .................................................................................
2-6Table 3-1. EPZ Perm anent Resident Population
.......................................................................................
3-5Table 3-2. Permanent Rlesident Population and Vehicles by Sub-area
.....................................................
3-6Table 3-3. Shadow Population and Vehicles by Sector .............................................................................
3-9Table 3-4. Sum m ary of Transients and Transient Vehicles
.....................................................................
3-14Table 3-5. Summary of Non-EPZ Resident Employees and Employee Vehicles
......................................
3-18Table 3-6. Q DC EPZ External Traffic ........................................................................................................
3-23Table 3-7. Sum m ary of Population Dem and ...........................................................................................
3-25Table 3-8. Sum m ary of Vehicle Dem and .................................................................................................
3-26Table 5-1. Event Sequence for Evacuation Activities
................................................................................
5-3Table 5-2. Tim e Distribution for Notifying the Public ...............................................................................
5-6Table 5-3. Time Distribution for Employees to Prepare to Leave Work ...................................................
5-7Table 5-4. Time Distribution for Com m uters to Travel Home ..................................................................
5-8Table 5-5. Time Distribution for Population to Prepare to Evacuate
.......................................................
5-8Table 5-6. Time Distribution for Population to Clear 6"-8" of Snow ........................................................
5-9Table 5-7. M apping Distributions to Events ............................................................................................
5-11Table 5-8. Description of the Distributions
.............................................................................................
5-12Table 5-9. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Un-staged Evacuation
....................
5-19Table 5-10. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Staged Evacuation
.......................
5-21Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions ...........................................................................................
6-4Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions
...............................................................................................
6-7Table 6-3. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios
............................................
6-8Table 6-4. Vehicle Estim ates by Scenario
..................................................................................................
6-9Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population
...........................
7-9Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population
.......................
7-11Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region ............................
7-13Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region ..........................
7-14Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions .........................................................................................
7-15Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estim ates ..............................................................................
8-13Table 8-2. School and Preschool Population Demand Estimates
...........................................................
8-14Table 8-3. School and Preschool Relocation Facilities
............................................................................
8-16Table 8-4. M edical Facility Transit Dem and ............................................................................................
8-18Table 8-5. Sum m ary of Transportation Resources
..................................................................................
8-19Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions
..........................................................................................................
8-20Table 8-7. School and Preschool Evacuation Time Estimates
-Good Weather ......................................
8-22Table 8-8. School and Preschool Evacuation Time Estimates
-Rain .....................................................
8-24Table 8-9. School and Preschool Evacuation Time Estimates
-Snow .....................................................
8-26Table 8-10. Sum m ary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes ........................................................................
8-28Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates
-Good Weather ........................................
8-29Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates
-Rain .........................................................
8-30Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates
-Snow .......................................................
8-31Quad Cities Generating Station viii KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 8-14. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates
-Good Weather .............................................
8-32Table 8-15. M edical Facility Evacuation Tim e Estimates
-Rain .............................................................
8-34Table 8-16. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates
-Snow ............................................................
8-36Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates
....................................
8-38Table 12-i. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation
..............
12-2Table A-1. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Term s .................................................................................
A-iTable C-i. Selected Measures of Effectiveness Output by DYNEV II ........................................................
C-2Table C-2. Input Requirem ents for the DYNEV II M odel ...........................................................................
C-3T a b le C -3 .G lo ssa ry ....................................................................................................................................
C -7Table E-1. Schools w ithin the EPZ .............................................................................................................
E-2Table E-2. Preschools w ithin the EPZ ........................................................................................................
E-3Table E-3. M edical Facilities w ithin the EPZ ..............................................................................................
E-4Table E-4. M ajor Em ployers w ithin the EPZ ..............................................................................................
E-5Table E-5. Recreational Areas w ithin the EPZ ............................................................................................
E-7Table E-6. Lodging Facilities w ithin the EPZ ..............................................................................................
E-8Table E-7. Correctional Facilities w ithin the EPZ .......................................................................................
E-9Table H-i. Percent of Sub-area Population Evacuating for Each Region .................................................
H-2Table J-i. Characteristics of the Ten Highest Volume Signalized Intersections
....................................
J-2Table J-2. Sam ple Sim ulation M odel Input ..........................................................................................
J-3Table J-3. Selected Model Outputs for the Evacuation of the Entire EPZ (Region R03) .......................
J-4Table J-4. Average Speed (mph) and Travel Time (min) for Major Evacuation Routes (Region R03,S ce n a rio 1 ) .................................................................................................................................................
J-5Table J-5. Simulation Model Outputs at Network Exit Links for Region R03, Scenario 1 .........................
J-6Table K-i. Evacuation Roadway Network Characteristics
......................................................................
K-34Table K-2. Nodes in the Link-Node Analysis Network which are Controlled
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K-82Table M-i. Evacuation Time Estimates for Trip Generation Sensitivity Study ...................................
M-1Table M-2. Evacuation Time Estimates for Shadow Sensitivity Study ....................................................
M-2Table M -3. ETE Variation w ith Population Change .................................................................................
M -4Table N-1. ETE Review Criteria Checklist
............................................................................................
N-1Quad Cities Generating Station ix KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThis report describes the analyses undertaken and the results obtained by a study to developEvacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the Quad Cities Generating Station (QDC) located inCordova, Illinois.
ETE are part of the required planning basis and provide Exelon and state andlocal governments with site-specific information needed for Protective Action decision-making.
In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by FederalGovernmental agencies.
Most important of these are:" Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-7002, SAND 2010-0061P, "Criteria forDevelopment of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies,"
November 2011. (NRC, 2011a)." Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-1745, "Analysis of Techniques forEstimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones," November, 1980. (NRC,1980a)." Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG-0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, "Criteria forPreparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans and Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants,"
November 1980. (NRC, 1980b)* Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-6863, SAND2004-5900, "Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants,"
January2005. (NRC, 2005)." Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, AppendixE to Part 50 -Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and Utilization Facilities, 2011. (NRC, 2011b).Overview of Project Activities This project began in January, 2014 and extended over a period of 4 months. The majoractivities performed are briefly described in chronological sequence:
" Accessed U.S. Census Bureau data files for the year 2010. Studied Geographical Information Systems (GIS) maps of the area in the vicinity of QDC, then conducted adetailed field survey of the highway network." Synthesized this information to create an analysis network representing the highwaysystem topology and capacities within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ), plus aShadow Region covering the region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15miles radially from the plant." Analyzed the results of a telephone survey of residents within the EPZ to gather focuseddata needed for this ETE study that were not contained within the census database.
Thesurvey instrument was reviewed and modified by the licensee and offsite responseorganization (ORO) personnel prior to conducting the survey.Quad Cities Generating Station ES-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
* Data pertaining to employment, transients, and special facilities in each county wereprovided by Exelon and local offsite response organizations (OROs).* The traffic demand and trip-generation rates of evacuating vehicles were estimated from the gathered data. The trip generation rates reflected the estimated mobilization time (i.e., the time required by evacuees to prepare for the evacuation trip) computedusing the results of the telephone survey of EPZ residents.
" The EPZ is subdivided into 18 Sub-areas.
Following federal guidelines, these Sub-areas are grouped within circular areas or "keyhole" configurations (circles plus radial sectors)that define a total of 36 Evacuation Regions." The time-varying external circumstances are represented as Evacuation Scenarios, eachdescribed in terms of the following factors:
(1) Season (Summer, Winter);
(2) Day ofWeek (Midweek, Weekend);
(3) Time of Day (Midday, Evening);
and (4) Weather (Good,Rain, Snow). One special event scenario
-Grand River Tug Fest -was considered.
Oneroadway impact scenario was considered wherein a single lane on 1-80 westbound wasclosed from the junction with US-67 (Exit 306) to US-61 (Exit 295) and a single laneeastbound was closed from the junction of US-67 to 1-88 (Exit 4). Also, a single laneclosure is considered on 1-88 westbound from the junction with Moline Rd (Exit 10) to I-80 and a single lane closure eastbound from the junction of Moline Rd to the end of thestudy area (approximately 5 miles east of the interchange
-Exit 18 -with Albany Rd).* Staged evacuation was considered for those regions wherein the 2 mile radius andsectors downwind to 5 miles were evacuated.
" As per NUREG/CR-7002, the Planning Basis for the calculation of ETE is:" A rapidly escalating accident at QDC that quickly assumes the status of GeneralEmergency such that the Advisory to Evacuate is virtually coincident with thesiren alert, and no early protective actions have been implemented.
" While an unlikely accident
: scenario, this planning basis will yield ETE, measuredas the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the stated percentage ofthe population exits the impacted Region, that represent "upper bound"estimates.
This conservative Planning Basis is applicable for all initiating events." If the emergency occurs while schools and daycares are in session, the ETE studyassumes that the children will be evacuated by bus directly to relocation or reception centers located outside the EPZ. Parents, relatives, and neighbors are advised to notpick up their children at school prior to the arrival of the buses dispatched for thatpurpose.
The ETE for schoolchildren are calculated separately.
" Evacuees who do not have access to a private vehicle will either ride-share withrelatives, friends or neighbors, or be evacuated by buses provided as specified in thecounty evacuation plans. Those in special facilities will likewise be evacuated withpublic transit, as needed: bus, wheelchair van, or ambulance, as required.
Separate ETEare calculated for the transit-dependent
: evacuees, for homebound special needsQuad Cities Generating Station ES-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 population, and for those evacuated from special facilities.
Computation of ETEA total of 504 ETE were computed for the evacuation of the general public. Each ETE quantifies the aggregate evacuation time estimated for the population within one of the 36 Evacuation Regions to evacuate from that Region, under the circumstances defined for one of the 14Evacuation Scenarios (36 x 14 = 504). Separate ETE are calculated for transit-dependent
: evacuees, including schoolchildren for applicable scenarios.
Except for Region R03, which is the evacuation of the entire EPZ, only a portion of the peoplewithin the EPZ would be advised to evacuate.
That is, the Advisory to Evacuate applies only tothose people occupying the specified impacted region. It is assumed that 100 percent of thepeople within the impacted region will evacuate in response to this Advisory.
The peopleoccupying the remainder of the EPZ outside the impacted region may be advised to takeshelter.The computation of ETE assumes that 20% of the population within the EPZ but outside theimpacted region, will elect to "voluntarily" evacuate.
In addition, 20% of the population in theShadow Region will also elect to evacuate.
These voluntary evacuees could impede those whoare evacuating from within the impacted region. The impedance that could be caused byvoluntary evacuees is considered in the computation of ETE for the impacted region.Staged evacuation is considered wherein those people within the 2-mile region evacuateimmediately, while those beyond 2 miles, but within the EPZ, shelter-in-place.
Once 90% of the2-mile region is evacuated, those people beyond 2 miles begin to evacuate.
As per federalguidance, 20% of people beyond 2 miles will evacuate (non-compliance) even though they areadvised to shelter-in-place.
The computational procedure is outlined as follows:" A link-node representation
-of the highway network is coded. Each link represents aunidirectional length of highway; each node usually represents an intersection or mergepoint. The capacity of each link is estimated based on the field survey observations andon established traffic engineering procedures.
" The evacuation trips are generated at locations called "zonal centroids" located withinthe EPZ and Shadow Region. The trip generation rates vary over time reflecting themobilization
: process, and from one location (centroid) to another depending onpopulation density and on whether a centroid is within, or outside, the impacted area." The evacuation model computes the routing patterns for evacuating vehicles that arecompliant with federal guidelines (outbound relative to the location of the plant), andthen simulates the traffic flow movements over space and time. This simulation processestimates the rate that traffic flow exits the impacted region.The ETE statistics provide the elapsed times for 90 percent and 100 percent, respectively, of thepopulation within the impacted region, to evacuate from within the impacted region. TheseQuad Cities Generating Station ES-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 statistics are presented in tabular and graphical formats.
The 90th percentile ETE have beenidentified as the values that should be considered when making protective action decisions because the 100th percentile ETE are prolonged by those relatively few people who take longerto mobilize.
This is referred to as the "evacuation tail" in Section 4.0 of NUREG/CR-7002.
Traffic Management This study references the comprehensive traffic management plan provided by the IllinoisEmergency Management Agency (IEMA) and the counties within the EPZ.The ETE simulations discussed in Section 7 indicate that evacuation routes servicing the City ofClinton are oversaturated and experience pronounced traffic congestion during evacuation dueto the limited capacity of the roadways and the large volume of evacuating traffic.
Based onpreliminary simulations, it is recommended that the intersection of County Route (CR) Z36(380th Ave) and CR F12 (Elvira Rd) and the intersection of CR Z36 and State Route 136 beconsidered as additional TCPs. See Section 9 and Appendix G.Selected ResultsA compilation of selected information is presented on the following pages in the form ofFigures and Tables extracted from the body of the report; these are described below." Figure 6-1 displays a map of the QDC EPZ showing the layout of the 18 Sub-areas thatcomprise, in aggregate, the EPZ." Table 3-1 presents the estimates of permanent resident population in each Sub-areabased on the 2010 Census data." Table 6-1 define each of the 36 Evacuation Regions in terms of their respective groups ofSub-areas.
" Table 6-2 defines the Evacuation Scenarios.
* Tables 7-1 and 7-2 are compilations of ETE. These data are the times needed to clearthe indicated regions of 90 and 100 percent of the population occupying these regions,respectively.
These computed ETE include consideration of mobilization time and ofestimated voluntary evacuations from other regions within the EPZ and from theShadow Region.* Tables 7-3 and 7-4 present ETE for the 2-mile region for un-staged and stagedevacuations for the 90th and 100th percentiles, respectively.
" Table 8-7 presents ETE for the schoolchildren in good weather." Table 8-11 presents ETE for the transit-dependent population in good weather." Figure H-8 presents an example of an Evacuation Region (Region R08) to be evacuated under the circumstances defined in Table 6-1. Maps of all regions are provided inAppendix H.Conclusions
* General population ETE were computed for 504 unique cases -a combination of 36unique Evacuation Regions and 14 unique Evacuation Scenarios.
Table 7-1 and Table 7-2document these ETE for the 90th and 100th percentiles.
These ETE range from 1:20Quad Cities Generating Station ES-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 (hr:min) to 3:35 at the 90th percentile.
" Inspection of Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 indicates that the ETE for the 100th percentile arean hour and a half to 2 hours longer than those for the 90th percentile, ranging from3:30 to 5:10." Inspection of Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 indicates that a staged evacuation protective action strategy provides no benefits to the 2-mile Region. See Section 7.6 for additional discussion.
* Comparison of Scenarios 5 and 13 in Table 7-1 indicates that the Special Event -anevent at Great River Tug Fest -has no impact on the 90th and 100th percentile ETE. SeeSection 7.5 for additional discussion.
" Comparison of Scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2 indicates that events suchas adverse weather or traffic accidents which cause a roadway closure -i.e., one lane on1-80 and one lane on 1-88 (see Section 2.2, item 7 for additional information)
-do nothave a material impact on ETE at the 90th or 100th percentiles.
See Section 7.5 foradditional discussion.
* Clinton experiences the most congestion within the EPZ, yet clears relatively quickly.
Alltraffic congestion within the EPZ clears by 3 hours and 50 minutes after the Advisory toEvacuate.
See Section 7.3 and Figures 7-3 through 7-8." Separate ETE were computed for schools, medical facilities, transit-dependent persons,and homebound special needs persons.
The average single-wave ETE for these facilities are up to 1Y hours longer than the general population ETE at the 90th percentile.
SeeSection 8." Table 8-5 indicates that there are enough buses, wheelchair vans, and ambulances available to evacuate the transit-dependent population within the EPZ in a single wave." Two additional traffic control points are suggested at the intersection of CR Z36 (380thAve) with CR F12 (Elvira Ave) and with State Route 136 to facilitate the evacuation of theCity of Clinton.
See Section 9 and Appendix G." The general population ETE at the 90th percentile is insensitive to changes in the basetrip generation time of 3 hours and 30 minutes due to the traffic congestion within theCity of Clinton.
See Table M-1.* The general population ETE is not significantly affected by the voluntary evacuation ofvehicles in the Shadow Region (tripling the shadow evacuation percentage increases 90th percentile ETE by 5 minutes).
An evacuation of 100 percent of the Shadow Regionincreases 90th percentile ETE by 15 minutes.
See Table M-2." A population increase of 21% or more results in 90th percentile ETE changes which meetthe federal criteria for updating ETE between decennial Censuses.
See Section M.3.Quad Cities Generating Station ES-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure 6-1. QDC EPZ Sub-areas Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-6KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 3-1. EPZ Permanent Resident Population Sub-are 2000 Pouato 201 PoplaioIAM7163IA2 16 25IA3 706 637IA4 498 459IA5 5,032 4,640IA6 1,317 1,361IA7 374 355lA8 506 467IA9 476 437IA1O 388 311IAll 26,910 26,567IA12 4,070 4,773ILl 256 260IL2 1,060 1,076IL3 1,008 977IL4 678 635IL5 434 461IL6 2,754 2,883EPZ Population Growth: -0.36%Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.ES-7KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation RegionsRegionSub-AreaI 1L2 I1L3 I IL4 I IL5 I IL6 I IAl IA2 I IA3 I IA4 I IA5 I IA6 I IA7 I lAB I MA9 I IA1O I IA11 I A12 IQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-8KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Sub-AreaRegionDescription IL2 113 114SwwSwwWN WV,NWA IL6 IAI IA2 IA3 IM IAS IA6 IA7 IA8 IA9iiiWVQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-9KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions ScenrioSesn Day of Wee Tim of Day Wetepca1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain NoneMdSummer week, Evening Good NoneSume Weekend6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None12 Winter Midweek, Evening Good NoneSummer Midweek, Evening Good Great River Tug13 Weekend FestSingle Lane14 Summer Midweek Midday Good Closure on 1-80and 1-881 Winter assumes that school is in sessionin session.(also applies to spring and autumn).
Summer assumes that school is notQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-1OKLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer SummerMdekWeed MdekMdekWeedMidweek Midweek MidweekWeedMdekWeekend Weekend WeekendMidday Midday Evening _____Midday
_________Midday
____ Evening Evening MiddayRegion Good Good Good Good Good Goo Great RodaWeather Ran Weather Rain Weather Weather Ri Snw Weather RanWeather RiersTu Impact________
_______ ______________Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ ___R01 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 T1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R02 1:50 1:50 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:40 j1:40 2:10 1:40 1:40 1:50R03 2:45 2:55 2:35 2:55 2:35 j 2:45 3:00 3:20 j 2:30 2:40 3:05 j 2:35 2:35 2:452-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 MilesR04 1:45 1:50 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:40 1:45 2:10 1:40 1:40 1:45R05 1:45 1:45 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:45 1:45 2:10 1:40 1:40 2:10 1:40 1:40 1:45R06 1:40 1:40 1:30 1:30 1:30 1:40 1:40 2:00 1:30 1:35 2:00 1:35 1:30 1:40R07 1:45 1:45 1:35 1:35 1:35 1:45 1:45 2:10 1:35 1:35 2:05 1:35 1:35 1:45ROB 1:35 1:35 1:30 1:30 1:35 1:35 1:40 2:00 1:35 1:35 2:00 1:35 1:35 1:35R09 1:45 1:45 1:35 1:35 1:35 1:45 1:45 2:10 1:35 1:35 2:05 1:35 1:35 1:45R1O 1:40 1:40 1:35 1:35 1:35 1:40 1:45 2:05 1:35 1:35 2:05 1:35 1:35 1:40R11 1:45 1:45 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:45 1:50 2:15 1:40 1:40 2:10 1:40 1:40 1:45R12 1:45 1:45 1:35 1:35 1:35 1:45 1:45 2:10 1:35 1:40 2:05 1:40 1:35 1:45R13 1:40 1:45 1:35 1:35 1:35 1:45 1:45 2:05 1:35 1:40 2:05 1:40 1:35 1:405-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary
___R14 3:00 3:10 2:55 3:05 2:45 3:00 3:15 3:35 2:45 3:00 3:30 2:45 2:45 3:00R15 3:00 3:10 2:55 3:05 2:45 3:00 3:15 3:35 2:45 3:05 3:30 2:45 2:45 3:00R16 2:55 3:05 2:50 3:10 2:45 2:55 3:10 3:30 2:40 2:55 3:25 2:40 2:45 2:55R17 1:50 1:50 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:50 1:55 2:10 1:45 1:45 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:50R18 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:50 1:45 1:55 1:55 2:15 1:50 1:55 2:10 1:45 1:45 1:55R19 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:50 1:45 1:55 1:55 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:10 1:45 1:45 1:55R20 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:50 1:55 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:05 1:50 1:55 2:00R21 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:50 2:00 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:00R22 1:55 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 2:00 2:10 1:55 1:55 2:10 1:50 1:55 2:00R23 1:50 1:50 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:50 1:50 2:20 1:40 1:45 2:10 1:40 1:40 1:50R24 1:50 1:50 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:50 1:50 2:15 1:40 1:45 2:10 1:40 1:40 1:50R25 3:00 3:10 2:55 3:05 2:45 3:00 3:15 3:35 2:45 3:00 3:30 2:45 2:45 3:00Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-11KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer SummerMidweek Midweek Midweek MiweMidweek Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend WeekWeek MidweekWeekend Weekend WeekendMidday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening MiddayI I TZ" _ _ _RegionGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainGood GoodWeather WeatherRainSnowGoodWeatherSnowGoodWeatherGreatRiver TugFestRoadwayImpactStaged Evacuation  Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 MilesR26 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:10 2:15 2:35 2:10 2:15 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:10R27 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:40 2:15 2:20 2:40 2:15 2:15 2:15R28 2:10 2:15 2:10 2:15 2:10 2:15 2:15 2:35 2:10 2:15 2:35 2:10 2:10 2:10R29 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 2:05 1:45 1:45 2:05 1:45 1:45 1:45R30 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:05 1:50 1:50 1:50R31 1:45 1:50 1:45 1:50 1:50 1:45 1:50 2:05 1:50 1:50 2:05 1:50 1:50 1:45R32 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:10 1:50 1:50 1:50R33 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:50 2:10 1:50 1:50 2:10 1:50 1:50 1:50R34 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 2:20 1:55 1:55 2:15 1:55 1:55 1:55R35 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:15 1:55 1:55 1:55R36 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 1:55 2:15 1:55 1:55 2:15 1:55 1:55 1:55Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-12KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer SummerMidweek Weekend Miwe Midweek Weekend MidweekMiwe MdekRegion Good Good Goodood Good RoadwayWeather Weather ain Weather Weather Sno Weather Rain Snow Weather River Tug ImpactFestEntire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZR01 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R02 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R03 4:00 4:20 3:50 4:10 3:50 4:00 4:25 5:10 3:50 3:55 5:10 3:50 3:50 4:002-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 MilesR04 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35ROS 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R06 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R07 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R08 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R09 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R10 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R11 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R12 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R13 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:355-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ BoundaryR14 3:55 4:20 3:50 3:55 3:50 3:55 4:25 5:10 3:50 3:55 5:10 3:40 3:50 3:55R15 4:00 4:20 3:50 3:55 3:50 4:00 4:25 5:10 3:50 3:55 5:10 3:50 3:50 4:00R16 3:50 4:15 3:45 4:10 3:50 4:00 4:20 5:10 3:50 3:50 5:10 3:45 3:50 3:50R17 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R18 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R19 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R20 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R21 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R22 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R23 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R24 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 5:10 3:40 3:40 3:40R2S 4:00 4:20 3:50 3:55 3:50 3:55 4:25 5:10 3:50 3:55 5:10 3:50 3:50 4:00Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-13KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer SummerMidweek Midweek MidweekMidweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weekend dweek MidweekWeekend Weekend WeekendMidday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening MiddayRegion Good Good Rain Good Good Good Good Great RoadwayWeather Weather Weather Weather Rain Snow Weather Weather River Tug ImpactFestStaged Evacuation  Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 MilesR26 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R27 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R28 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R29 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R30 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R31 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R32 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R33 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R34 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35R36 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 5:05 3:35 3:35 3:35ES-14 KL0 Engineering, P.C.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-14KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated RegionSummer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer SummerMidweek Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek MidweekWeekend Weekend WeekendMidday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening MiddayRain ain Sow Ran Sno Good Great RodaRegion Good Good Good Good Good Good RoadwayWeather Weather Rain Weather Weather Weather Weather River Tug ImpactFestUn-staged Evacuation  Mile and 5-Mile RegionRO 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R02 1:20] 1:201 1:20 [1:20] 1:25 11:20 1 1:20!1 1:40 11:25 11:25] 1:451 1:25 j 1:25 j 1:20Un-staged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-MilesR04 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20ROS 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R06 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R07 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20ROB 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R09 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R10 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R11 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R12 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R13 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20Staged Evacuation  Mile RegionR14 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 [ 1:20 1 1:20 1:40 [ 1:25 ] 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20Staged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 MilesR15 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R16 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R16 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R17 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R18 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R19 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R21 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R22 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R23 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20R24 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:20 1:25 1:20 1:20 1:40 1:25 1:25 1:45 1:25 1:25 1:20Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-15KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated RegionSummer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer SummerMidweek Midweek MidweekMidweek Weekend Midweek Weekend MidweekWeekend weekend WeekendMidday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening MiddayI GreatRegion Good Good Good Good Good Good RoadwayRain Rain Rain Snow Rain Snow River TugWeather Weather Weather Weather Weather Weather ImpactUn-staged Evacuation  Mile and 5-Mile RegionR01 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:301 3:3013:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R02 :03:3013:30 3:30 13:30 3:30 3:301 3:301 5:001 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30Un-staged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-MilesR04 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R05 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R06 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R07 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30ROB 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R09 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30RIO 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R11 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R12 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R13 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30Staged Evacuation  Mile RegionR14 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 [ 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30Staged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 MilesR15 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R16 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R16 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R17 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R18 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R19 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R20 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R21 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 S:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R22 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R23 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30R24 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 5:00 3:30 3:30 3:30Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-16KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-7. School and Preschool Evacuation Time Estimates
-Good WeatherRiverdale Elementary SchoolI 90 15 I 6.3 1 46.6 1 8Riverdale Junior High School 90 15 16.3 46.6 18Camanchle Meiddleig School 90 15 614. 46.7 18CClinton CounH1Bluff Elementary School 90 15 13.7 49.6 12Camanche Elementary School 90 15 13.9 46.7 18Camanche High School 90 15 14.3 46.7 18Camanche Middle School 90 15 14.3 46.7 18Clinton High School 90 15 14.4 49.6 17Eagle Heights Elementary School 90 15 16.7 50.3 20Jefferson Elementary School 90 15 16.1 49.2 20Lincoln High School 90 15 13.2 49.6 16Lyons Middle School 90 15 18.6 49.1 23Prince of Peace Catholic School 90 15 15.5 49.2 19Washington Middle School 90 15 16.1 49.2 20Whittier Elementary School 90 15 16.9 49.1 21Scott CountyBridgeview Elementary School 90 15 3.9 55.0 4Cody School 90 15 6.6 35.2 11Pleasant Valley Junior High School 90 15 0.2 27.7 0Virgil Grissom Elementary School 90 15 10.3 52.2 12School Maximum for EPZ:School Average for EPZ:25.7 2825.7 2825.7 2821.824.724.724.726.821.821.85.121.223.521.221.82427272729242462326232413.7 1513.7 1516.3 184.3 5School Maximum:School Average:Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-17KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 KI!I Life's Little Miracles Inc.I 90 1 15 1 2.5 I 47.9 I 321.3 2321_3 71Messiah Lutheran Church Preschool 90 15 2.5 6.9 22_Clinton CountyAshford Pre-School 90 15 3.5 2.8 77Clinton Head Start 90 15 4.7 5.7 49Kids' First Academy 90 15 11.2 11.0 62Mercy Child & Pre 90 15 6.0 5.8 62St John Lutheran Preschool 90 15 2.8 6.9 25Stay & Play Daycare 90 15 8.1 8.4 58Unity Christian 90 15 7.0 8.1 51Wee School 90 15 3.5 5.5 39YWCA 90 15 5.2 8.1 38YWCA Children's Center 90 15 3.3 5.5 36Zion Day Care 90 15 5.2 6.1 51Scott CountyKiddie Karrasel Academy 90 15 4.1 1 6.1 40Preschool Maximum for EPZ:Preschool Average for EPZ:10.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.210.2111111111111111111111i13.7 1 15Preschool Maximum:Preschool Average:ES-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-18KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates
-Good WeatherIL & IL4 1 120 10. 4b.3 13 30_IL6 1 120 7.9 50.3 9 30IA6 & IA12 2 120 11.0 49.6 13 30IA3 & IAS 2 120 18.0 48.3 22 30IAll (1) 4 120 8.9 11.6 46 30IAll (2) 4 120 7.9 5.5 86 30Maximum ETE:Average ETE:9.010510343021.5 23 5 10 41 3012.2 13 5 10 38 307.0 8 5 10 50 3012.3 13 5 10 32 309.9115102830Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-19KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure H-8. Region ROBES-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time EstimateES-20KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 1 INTRODUCTION This report describes the analyses undertaken and the results obtained by a study to developEvacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the Quad Cities Generating Station (QDC), located inCordova, Illinois.
ETE provide state and local governments with site-specific information needed for Protective Action decision-making.
In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by FederalGovernmental agencies.
Most important of these are:* Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-7002, SAND 2010-0061P, "Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies,"
November 2011.(NRC, 2011a)* Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-1745, "Analysis of Techniques forEstimating Evacuation Times for Emergency Planning Zones," November, 1980.(NRC, 1980a)* Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG-0654/FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, "Criteria for Preparation and Evaluation of Radiological Emergency Response Plans andPreparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants,"
November 1980. (NRC, 1980b)* Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). NUREG/CR-6863, SAND2004-5900, "Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies for Nuclear Power Plants,"January 2005. (NRC, 2005)* Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Title 10, Code of Federal Regulations, Appendix E to Part 50 -Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production andUtilization Facilities, 2011. (NRC, 2011b)The work effort reported herein was supported and guided by Exelon who contributed suggestions, critiques, and the local knowledge base required.
Table 1-1 presents a summary of stakeholders and interactions.
Table 1-1. Stakeholder Interaction Saeolde Naur of Stkhle IneactoProvided data (telephone survey, employees, transients, special facilities, transit resources)
Exelon needed for the study. Coordinated information exchange with offsite response organizations.
Reviewed draft report and provided comments.
Illinois Emergency Management Agency Provided existing emergency plan, including trafficand access control points and other information Clinton County Office of Emergency Management critical to the ETE study. Provided special facilitydata. Engaged in the ETE development andScott County Office of Emergency Management informed of the study results.Quad Cities Generating Station 1-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 1.1 Overview of the ETE ProcessThe following outline presents a brief description of the work effort in chronological sequence:
: 1. Information Gathering:
: a. Defined the scope of work in discussions with representatives from Exelon.b. Conducted bi-weekly conference calls with Exelon to identify issues to beaddressed and resources available.
: c. Conducted a detailed field survey of the highway system and of area trafficconditions within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) and Shadow Region.d. Obtained demographic data from the 2010 Census and from Exelon.e. Obtained results of a random sample telephone survey of EPZ residents fromExelon.f. Obtained data from Exelon and local offsite response organizations (OROs) toidentify and describe
: schools, special facilities, major employers, transient attractions, transportation providers, and other important information.
: 2. Estimated distributions of Trip Generation times representing the time required byvarious population groups (permanent residents, employees, and transients) to prepare(mobilize) for the evacuation trip. These estimates are primarily based upon therandom sample telephone survey.3. Defined Evacuation Scenarios.
These scenarios reflect the variation in demand, in tripgeneration distribution and in highway capacities, associated with different
: seasons, dayof week, time of day and weather conditions.
: 4. Reviewed the existing traffic management plan to be implemented by local and statepolice in the event of an incident at the plant. Traffic and access control are applied atspecified Traffic Control Points (TCP) and Access Control Points (ACP) located within thestudy area.5. Utilized the 18 existing Sub-areas which generally follow township boundaries andmajor roadways or rivers to define Evacuation Regions.
"Regions" are groups ofcontiguous Sub-areas for which ETE are calculated.
The configurations of these Regionsreflect wind direction and the radial extent of the impacted area. Each Region, otherthan those that approximate circular areas, approximates a "key-hole section" withinthe EPZ as recommended by NUREG/CR-7002.
: 6. Estimated demand for transit services for persons at special facilities and for transit-dependent persons at home.7. Prepared the input streams for the DYNEV II system.a. Estimated the evacuation traffic demand, based on the available information derived from Census data, and from data provided by local and state agencies, Quad Cities Generating Station 1-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Exelon and from the telephone survey.b. Applied the procedures specified in the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual (TRB,2010) to the data acquired during the field survey, to estimate the capacity of allhighway segments comprising the evacuation routes.c. Developed the link-node representation of the evacuation
: network, which isused as the basis for the computer analysis that calculates the ETE.d. Calculated the evacuating traffic demand for each Region and for each Scenario.
: e. Specified selected candidate destinations for each "origin" (location of each"source" where evacuation trips are generated over the mobilization time) tosupport evacuation travel consistent with outbound movement relative to thelocation of the QDC.8. Executed the DYNEV II model to determine optimal evacuation routing and compute ETEfor all residents, transients and employees
("general population")
with access to privatevehicles.
Generated a complete set of ETE for all specified Regions and Scenarios.
: 9. Documented ETE in formats in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.
: 10. Calculated the ETE for all transit activities including those for special facilities (schools, preschools, and medical facilities),
for the transit-dependent population and forhomebound special needs population.
1.2 The Quad Cities Generating Station LocationThe QDC site is located just west of State Highway 84 in Cordova, Rock Island County, Illinois.
The site is approximately 20 miles northeast of Moline, IL and 150 miles west of Chicago, IL. TheEPZ consists of part of Rock Island and Whiteside Counties in Illinois and Clinton and ScottCounties in Iowa. Figure 1-1 shows the location of the QDC site relative to Chicago, as well asthe major population centers and roadways in the area.Quad Cities Generating Station 1-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure 1-1. QDC LocationQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate1-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 1.3 Preliminary Activities These activities are described below.Field Surveys of the Highway NetworkKLD personnel drove the entire highway system within the EPZ and the Shadow Region whichconsists of the area between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles radially from theplant. The characteristics of each section of highway were recorded.
These characteristics areshown in Table 1-2:Table 1-2. Highway Characteristics
* Number of lanes 0 Posted speed* Lane width 0 Actual free speed* Shoulder type & width 0 Abutting land use* Interchange geometries 0 Control devices* Lane channelization
& queuing 0 Intersection configuration (including capacity (including turn bays/lanes) roundabouts where applicable)
* Geometrics:
curves, grades (>4%) 0 Traffic signal type* Unusual characteristics:
Narrow bridges, sharp curves, poor pavement, flood warningsigns, inadequate delineations, toll booths, etc.Video and audio recording equipment were used to capture a permanent record of the highwayinfrastructure.
No attempt was made to meticulously measure such attributes as lane widthand shoulder width; estimates of these measures based on visual observation and recordedimages were considered appropriate for the purpose of estimating the capacity of highwaysections.
For example, Exhibit 15-7 in the HCM indicates that a reduction in lane width from 12feet (the "base" value) to 10 feet can reduce free flow speed (FFS) by 1.1 mph -not a materialdifference
-for two-lane highways.
Exhibit 15-30 in the HCM shows little sensitivity for theestimates of Service Volumes at Level of Service (LOS) E (near capacity),
with respect to FFS, fortwo-lane highways.
The data from the audio and video recordings were used to create detailed geographical information systems (GIS) shapefiles and databases of the roadway characteristics and of thetraffic control devices observed during the road survey; this information was referenced whilepreparing the input stream for the DYNEV II System.As documented on page 15-5 of the HCM 2010, the capacity of a two-lane highway is 1700passenger cars per hour in one direction.
For freeway sections, a value of 2250 vehicles perhour per lane is assigned, as per Exhibit 11-17 of the HCM 2010. The road survey has identified several segments which are characterized by adverse geometrics on two-lane highways whichare reflected in reduced values for both capacity and speed. These estimates are consistent with the service volumes for LOS E presented in HCM Exhibit 15-30. These links may beQuad Cities Generating Station 1-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 identified by reviewing Appendix K. Link capacity is an input to DYNEV II which computes theETE. Further discussion of roadway capacity is provided in Section 4 of this report.Traffic signals are either pre-timed (signal timings are fixed over time and do not change withthe traffic volume on competing approaches),
or are actuated (signal timings vary over timebased on the changing traffic volumes on competing approaches).
Actuated signals requiredetectors to provide the traffic data used by the signal controller to adjust the signal timings.These detectors are typically magnetic loops in the roadway, or video cameras mounted on thesignal masts and pointed toward the intersection approaches.
If detectors were observed onthe approaches to a signalized intersection during the road survey, detailed signal timings werenot collected as the timings vary with traffic volume. TCPs at locations which have controldevices are represented as actuated signals in the DYNEV II system.If no detectors were observed, the signal control at the intersection was considered pre-timed, and detailed signal timings were gathered for several signal cycles. These signal timings wereinput to the DYNEV II system used to compute ETE, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance.
Figure 1-2 presents the link-node analysis network that was constructed to model theevacuation roadway network in the EPZ and Shadow Region. The directional arrows on the linksand the node numbers have been removed from Figure 1-2 to clarify the figure. The detailedfigures provided in Appendix K depict the analysis network with directional arrows shown andnode numbers provided.
The observations made during the field survey were used to calibrate the analysis network.Telephone SurveyThe results of a telephone survey conducted in 2011 were obtained to gather information needed for the evacuation study. Appendix F presents the survey instrument, the procedures used and tabulations of data compiled from the survey returns.These data were utilized to develop estimates of vehicle occupancy to estimate the number ofevacuating vehicles during an evacuation and to estimate elements of the mobilization process.This database was also referenced to estimate the number of transit-dependent residents.
Computing the Evacuation Time Estimates The overall study procedure is outlined in Appendix D. Demographic data were obtained fromseveral sources, as detailed later in this report. These data were analyzed and converted intovehicle demand data. The vehicle demand was loaded onto appropriate "source" links of theanalysis network using GIS mapping software.
The DYNEV II system was then used to computeETE for all Regions and Scenarios.
Analytical ToolsThe DYNEV II System that was employed for this study is comprised of several integrated computer models. One of these is the DYNEV (DYnamic Network EVacuation) macroscopic simulation model, a new version of the IDYNEV model that was developed by KLD undercontract with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).Quad Cities Generating Station 1-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Figure 1-2. QDC Link-Node Analysis Network1-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate1-7KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 DYNEV II consists of four sub-models:
" A macroscopic traffic simulation model (for details, see Appendix C)." A Trip Distribution (TD), model that assigns a set of candidate destination (D) nodes foreach "origin" (0) located within the analysis
: network, where evacuation trips are"generated" over time. This establishes a set of O-D tables." A Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA), model which assigns trips to paths of travel(routes) which satisfy the O-D tables, over time. The TD and DTA models are integrated to form the DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) model, as described inAppendix B." A Myopic Traffic Diversion model which diverts traffic to avoid intense, local congestion, if possible.
Another software product developed by KLD, named UNITES (UNified Transportation Engineering System) was used to expedite data entry and to automate the production of outputtables.The dynamics of traffic flow over the network are graphically animated using the softwareproduct, EVAN (EVacuation ANimator),
developed by KLD. EVAN is GIS based, and displaysstatistics such as LOS, vehicles discharged, average speed, and percent of vehicles evacuated, output by the DYNEV II System. The use of a GIS framework enables the user to zoom in onareas of congestion and query road name, town name and other geographical information.
The procedure for applying the DYNEV II System within the framework of developing ETE isoutlined in Appendix D. Appendix A is a glossary of terms.For the reader interested in an evaluation of the original model, I-DYNEV, the following references are suggested:
" NUREG/CR-4873, PNL-6171, "Benchmark Study of the I-DYNEV Evacuation TimeEstimate Computer Code," 1988. (NRC, 1988a)" NUREG/CR-4874, PNL-6172, "The Sensitivity of Evacuation Time Estimates to Changes inInput Parameters for the I-DYNEV Computer Code," 1988. (NRC, 1988b)The evacuation analysis procedures are based upon the need to:* Route traffic along paths of travel that will expedite their travel from their respective points of origin to points outside the EPZ." Restrict movement toward the plant to the extent practicable, and disperse trafficdemand so as to avoid focusing demand on a limited number of highways.
* Move traffic in directions that are generally
: outbound, relative to the location of theQDC.DYNEV II provides a detailed description of traffic operations on the evacuation network.
Thisdescription enables the analyst to identify bottlenecks and to develop countermeasures thatare designed to represent the behavioral responses of evacuees.
The effects of thesecountermeasures may then be tested with the model.Quad Cities Generating Station 1-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 1.4 Comparison with Prior ETE StudyTable 1-3 presents a comparison of the present ETE study with the previous (1994) study. Anupdate to the 1994 study was completed in 2005. All entries in Table 1-3 are taken from the1994 study with the exception of: resident population basis, resident population vehicleoccupancy, trip generation for evacuation, modeling
: platform, and Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE). The ETE in this study are slightly longer (15 minutes) than in the previous study. Themajor factors contributing to the differences between the ETE values obtained in this study andthose of the previous study can be summarized as follows:" A decrease in resident vehicle occupancy, which results in more evacutaing vehicles andlonger ETE." Consideration of shadow evacuations which can delay the egree of the City of Clinton(see Appendix M).Table 1-3. ETE Study Comparisons To-i Prviu .T td urn T tdResidentPopulation BasisData obtained from 2000 Census data,field survey work, state and countyagencies.
Population
= 46,562ArcGIS Software using 2010 USCensus blocks; area ratio methodused.Population
= 46,387Resident Data based upon 2000 Census average 2.24 persons/household, 1.29household occupancy rates. Assumed toPopulation Vehicle householdhiccupanryhouseholdssielding:
evacuating vehicles/household Occupancy be one vehicle per household yielding:
yielding:
1.74 persons/vehicle 2.44 persons/vehicle
_________________
Employee estimates based oninformation provided about majorData obtained from 1990 Census data, emporsain eP US CensuEmployee field survey work, state and county Longitudinal Employer-Household Population agencies.
Dynamics and phone calls to someEmployees
= 4,019 employers Employees
= 2,806Estimates based upon U.S. Censusdata and the results of the telephone survey. A total of 404 people who donot have access to a vehicle,Transit-Dependent requiring 14 buses to evacuate.
AnPopulation Not Considered.
additional 85 homebound specialneeds persons require specialtransportation to evacuate (8 buses,8 wheelchair vans and 1 ambulance
-are required to evacuate thispopulation).
Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate1-9KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0
-I Toi rvosEE td urn T StuyTransient Population Data obtained from 1990 Census data,field survey work, state and countyagencies.
Based on data available as ofOctober 1993.Transients
= 6,185Transient estimates based uponinformation provided about transient attractions in EPZ.Transients
= 7,519Special facility population based onData obtained from 1990 Census data, information provided by ExelonSpecial Facilities field survey work, state and county Current Census = 724Population agencies.
Buses Required
= 19Total Population
= 1,835 Wheelchair Buses = 68Ambulances
= 11Data obtained from 1990 Census data, School population based onSchool Population field survey work, state and county information provided by Exelonagencies.
School enrollment
= 9,064School enrollment
= 11,785 Preschool enrollment
= 1,087Voluntary evacuation from 20 percent of the population withinwithin EPZ in areas Not Considered.
the EPZ, but not within theoutside region to Evacuation Region (see Figure 2-1)be evacuated Shadow 20% of people outside of the EPZEvacuation Not considered.
within the Shadow RegionEvacuation
__(see Figure 7-2)Network Size 243 links 1,235 links; 969 nodesField surveys conducted in JanuaryRoadway 2014. Roads and intersections wereGeometric Data Not specified.
video archived.
Road capacities based on 2010 HCM.Direct evacuation to designated Direct evacuation to designated Relocation Center. Relocation Center.50 percent of transit-dependent Ridesharing Not considered.
persons will evacuate with aneighbor or friend.Based on residential telephone survey of specific pre-tripmobilization activities:
Some data reproduced from 1994 study Residents with commuters returning with added variance for time of day and leave between 15 and 210 minutes.Trip Generation weather.
Residents leave between 15 and Residents without commuters for Evacuation 150 minutes.
Employees and transients returning leave between 15 and 150leave between 15 and 45 minutes.
minutes.Employees and transients leavebetween 15 and 105 minutes.All times measured from the Advisoryto Evacuate.
Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate1-10KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 To-ic Prvos StuyCretEESu WeatherNormal or Adverse.
The capacity and freeflow speed of all links in the network arereduced by 20% in adverse conditions.
Normal, Rain, or Snow. The capacityand free flow speed of all links in thenetwork are reduced by 10% in theevent of rain and 20% for snow.Modeling NetVac2 DYNEV II System -Version 4.0.18.0Multi-State Event -Great River TugNo specific Event. Increased peak Festtransient population by 50 to 300 percent.
Special Event Population
= 2,500additional transients 36 Regions (central sector wind8 conditions for 13 evacuation zones direction and each adjacent sectorproducing 104 scenarios, technique used) and 14 Scenarios producing 504 unique cases.Evacuation Time ETE reported for 100th percentile for each ETE reported for 90th and 100thEstimates Evacuation Section.
Results presented by percentile population.
ResultsReporting Scenario.
presented by Region and Scenario.
Evacuation Time Winter Weekday Midday,Estimates for the Winter, Daytime, Normal Weather:
3:45 Good Weather:
4:00entire EPZ, 100th Summer, Daytime, Normal Weather:
3:44 Summer Weekday, Midday,percentile IGood Weather:
4:00Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate1-11KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 2 STUDY ESTIMATES AND ASSUMPTIONS This section presents the estimates and assumptions utilized in the development of theevacuation time estimates.
2.1 Data Estimates
: 1. Population estimates are based upon Census 2010 data.2. Estimates of employees who reside outside the EPZ and commute to work within theEPZ are based upon data provided by Exelon and on the US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics tools (see Section 3.4).3. Population estimates at special and transient facilities are based on data provided byExelon and state and county agencies.
: 4. Roadway capacity estimates are based on field surveys and the application of theHighway Capacity Manual 2010.5. Population mobilization times are based on a statistical analysis of data acquired from arandom sample telephone survey of EPZ residents (see Section 5 and Appendix F).6. The relationship between resident population and evacuating vehicles is developed from the telephone survey. Average values of 2.24 persons per household (SeeAppendix F, Figure F-i) and 1.29 evacuating vehicles per household (Figure F-4) areused. The relationship between persons and vehicles for employees, transients, andspecial events is as follows:a. Employees:
vehicle occupancy data was provided by Exelon; one employee pervehicle.b. Transients:
varies from 2.00 to 2.24 persons per vehicle depending on the typeof facility.
: c. Special Events: Great River Tug Fest has an estimated occupancy of 2.24 personsper vehicle (average household size from telephone survey).Quad Cities Generating Station 2-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 2.2 Study Methodological Assumptions
: 1. ETE are presented for the evacuation of the 90th and 100th percentiles of population foreach Region and for each Scenario.
The percentile ETE is defined as the elapsed timefrom the Advisory to Evacuate issued to a specific Region of the EPZ, to the time thatRegion is clear of the indicated percentile of evacuees.
A Region is defined as a group ofSub-areas that is issued an Advisory to Evacuate.
A scenario is a combination ofcircumstances, including time of day, day of week, season, and weather conditions.
: 2. The ETE are computed and presented in tabular format and graphically, in a formatcompliant with NUREG/CR-7002.
: 3. Evacuation movements (paths of travel) are generally outbound relative to the plant tothe extent permitted by the highway network.
All major evacuation routes are used inthe analysis.
: 4. Regions are defined by the underlying "keyhole" or circular configurations as specified inSection 1.4 of NUREG/CR-7002.
These Regions, as defined, display irregular boundaries reflecting the geography of the Sub-areas included within these underlying configurations.
: 5. As indicated in Figure 2-2 of NUREG/CR-7002, 100% of people within the impacted"keyhole" evacuate.
20% of those people within the EPZ, not within the impactedkeyhole, will voluntarily evacuate.
20% of those people within the Shadow Region willvoluntarily evacuate.
See Figure 2-1 for a graphical representation of these evacuation percentages.
Sensitivity studies explore the effect on ETE of increasing the percentage of voluntary evacuees in the Shadow Region (see Appendix M).6. A total of 14 "Scenarios" representing different temporal variations (season, time ofday, day of week) and weather conditions are considered.
These Scenarios are outlinedin Table 2-1.7. Scenario 14 considers the closure of a single lane on 1-80 westbound from the junctionwith US-67 (Exit 306) to US-61 (Exit 295) and a single lane eastbound from the junctionof US-67 to 1-88 (Exit 4). Also, a single lane closure is considered on 1-88 westbound fromthe junction with Moline Rd (Exit 10) to 1-80 and a single lane eastbound from thejunction of Moline Rd to the end of the study area (approximately 5 miles east of theinterchange
-Exit 18 -with Albany Rd).8. The models of the I-DYNEV System were recognized as state of the art by the AtomicSafety & Licensing Board (ASLB) in past hearings (NRC, 1988a). The models havecontinuously been refined and extended since those hearings and were independently validated by a consultant retained by the NRC. The new DYNEV II model incorporates the latest technology in traffic simulation and in dynamic traffic assignment.
The DYNEVII System is used to compute ETE in this study.Quad Cities Generating Station 2-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 2-1. Evacuation Scenario Definitions Scnai Seso 2 Da of Wee Tim of Day Weahe Specia1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None5 Summer Midweek, Evening Good NoneWeekend6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None12 Winter Midweek,Weekend Evening Good None13 Summer Midweek, Evening Good Great River TugWeekend FestSingle Lane14 Summer Midweek Midday Good Closure on 1-80and 1-882 Winter assumes that school is in session (also applies to spring and autumn).
Summer assumes that school is notin session.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate2-3KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 2-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate2-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.2-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 2.3 Study Assumptions
: 1. The Planning Basis Assumption for the calculation of ETE is a rapidly escalating accidentthat requires evacuation, and includes the following:
: a. Advisory to Evacuate is announced coincident with the siren notification.
: b. Mobilization of the general population will commence within 15 minutes aftersiren notification.
: c. ETE are measured relative to the Advisory to Evacuate.
: 2. It is assumed that everyone within the group of Sub-areas forming a Region that isissued an Advisory to Evacuate will, in fact, respond and evacuate in general accord withthe planned routes.3. 50 percent of the households in the EPZ have at least 1 commuter (see Figure F-3); 45percent of those households with commuters will await the return of a commuterbefore beginning their evacuation trip (see Figure F-5), based on the telephone surveyresults.
Therefore 23 percent (50% x 45% = 23%) of EPZ households will await the returnof a commuter, prior to beginning their evacuation trip.4. The ETE will also include consideration of "through" (External-External) trips during thetime that such traffic is permitted to enter the evacuated Region. "Normal" traffic flowis assumed to be present within the EPZ at the start of the emergency.
: 5. Access Control Points (ACP) will be staffed within approximately 120 minutes following the siren notifications, to divert traffic attempting to enter the EPZ. Earlier activation ofACP locations could delay returning commuters.
It is assumed that no through traffic willenter the EPZ after this 120 minute time period.6. Traffic Control Points (TCP) within the EPZ will be staffed over time, beginning at theAdvisory to Evacuate.
Their number and location will depend on the Region to beevacuated and resources available.
The objectives of these TCP are:a. Facilitate the movements of all (mostly evacuating) vehicles at the location.
: b. Discourage inadvertent vehicle movements towards the plant.c. Provide assurance and guidance to any traveler who is unsure of the appropriate actions or routing.d. Act as local surveillance and communications center.e. Provide information to the emergency operations center (EOC) as needed, basedon direct observation or on information provided by travelers.
In calculating ETE, it is assumed that evacuees will drive safely, travel in directions identified in the plans, and obey all control devices and traffic guides.7. Buses will be used to transport those without access to private vehicles:
: a. If schools are in session, transport (buses) will evacuate students directly to thedesignated relocation centers.b. Buses, wheelchair vans, and ambulances will evacuate patients at medicalfacilities and at any senior facilities within the EPZ, as needed.c. Transit-dependent general population will be evacuated to Reception Centers.Quad Cities Generating Station 2-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
: d. Schoolchildren, if school is in session, are given priority in assigning transitvehicles.
: e. Bus mobilization time is considered in ETE calculations.
: f. Analysis of the number of required round-trips
("waves")
of evacuating transitvehicles is presented.
: 8. Provisions are made for evacuating the transit-dependent portion of the generalpopulation to reception centers by bus, based on the assumption that some of thesepeople will ride-share with family, neighbors, and friends, thus reducing the demand forbuses. We assume that the percentage of people who rideshare is 50 percent.
Thisassumption is based upon reported experience for other emergencies, and on guidancein Section 2.2 of NUREG/CR-7002 (IES, 1981).9. Two types of adverse weather scenarios are considered.
Rain may occur for eitherwinter or summer scenarios; snow occurs in winter scenarios only. It is assumed that therain or snow begins earlier or at about the same time the evacuation advisory is issued.No weather-related reduction in the number of transients who may be present in theEPZ is assumed.
It is assumed that roads are passable and that the appropriate agenciesare plowing the roads as they would normally when snowing.Adverse weather scenarios affect roadway capacity and the free flow highway speeds.The factors applied for the ETE study are based on recent research on the effects ofweather on roadway operations; the factors are shown in Table 2-2 (Agarwal, 2005).10. School buses used to transport students are assumed to transport 70 students per busfor elementary schools and 50 students per bus for middle and high schools.
Transitbuses used to transport the transit-dependent general population are assumed totransport 30 people per bus. Buses evacuating patients from medical facilities cantransport 30 ambulatory people per bus; 4 wheelchair bound persons per wheelchair van; and 2 bedridden patients per ambulance.
Table 2-2. Model Adjustment for Adverse WeatherScnai Caacty Sped Moiizto Tim fo Geea Population Rain 90% 90% No EffectSnow 80% 80% Clear driveway before leaving home (See Figure F-9)*Adverse weather capacity and speed values are given as a percentage of good weatherconditions.
Roads are assumed to be passable.
Quad Cities Generating Station 2-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 3 DEMAND ESTIMATION The estimates of demand, expressed in terms of people and vehicles, constitute a criticalelement in developing an evacuation plan. These estimates consist of three components:
: 1. An estimate of population within the EPZ, stratified into groups (resident,
: employee, transient).
: 2. An estimate, for each population group, of mean occupancy per evacuating vehicle.
This estimate is used to determine the number of evacuating vehicles.
: 3. An estimate of potential double-counting of vehicles.
Appendix E presents much of the source material for the population estimates.
Our primarysource of population data, the 2010 Census, however, is not adequate for directly estimating some transient groups.Throughout the year, vacationers and tourists enter the EPZ. These non-residents may dwellwithin the EPZ for a short period (e.g. a few days or one or two weeks), or may enter and leavewithin one day. Estimates of the size of these population components must be obtained, sothat the associated number of evacuating vehicles can be ascertained.
The potential for double-counting people and vehicles must be addressed.
For example:* A resident who works and shops within the EPZ could be counted as a resident, again asan employee and once again as a shopper.* A visitor who stays at a hotel and spends time at a park, then goes shopping could becounted three times.Furthermore, the number of vehicles at a location depends on time of day. For example, motelparking lots may be full at dawn and empty at noon. Similarly, parking lots at area parks, whichare full at noon, may be almost empty at dawn. Estimating counts of vehicles by simply addingup the capacities of different types of parking facilities will tend to overestimate the number oftransients and can lead to ETE that are too conservative.
Analysis of the population characteristics of the QDC EPZ indicates the need to identify threedistinct groups:" Permanent residents
-people who are year round residents of the EPZ.* Transients
-people who reside outside of the EPZ who enter the area for a specificpurpose (shopping, recreation) and then leave the area.* Employees
-people who reside outside of the EPZ and commute to businesses withinthe EPZ on a daily basis.Estimates of the population and number of evacuating vehicles for each of the population groups are presented for each Sub-area and by polar coordinate representation (population rose). The QDC EPZ is subdivided into 18 Sub-areas.
The EPZ is shown in Figure 3-1.Quad Cities Generating Station 3-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 3.1 Permanent Residents The primary source for estimating permanent population is the latest U.S. Census data. Theaverage household size (2.24 persons/household
-See Figure F-i) and the number ofevacuating vehicles per household (1.29 vehicles/household
-See Figure F-4) were adaptedfrom the telephone survey results.Population estimates are based upon Census 2010 data. The estimates are created by cuttingthe census block polygons by the Sub-area and EPZ boundaries.
A ratio of the original area ofeach census block and the updated area (after cutting) is multiplied by the total blockpopulation to estimate what the population is within the EPZ. This methodology assumes thatthe population is evenly distributed across a census block. Table 3-1 provides the permanent resident population within the EPZ by Sub-area based on this methodology.
The year 2010 permanent resident population is divided by the average household size andthen multiplied by the average number of evacuating vehicles per household in order toestimate number of vehicles.
Permanent resident population and vehicle estimates arepresented in Table 3-2. Figure 3-2 and Figure 3-3 present the permanent resident population and permanent resident vehicle estimates by sector and distance from QDC. This "rose" wasconstructed using GIS software.
It can be argued that this estimate of permanent residents overstates,
: somewhat, the numberof evacuating
: vehicles, especially during the summer. It is certainly reasonable to assert thatsome portion of the population would be on vacation during the summer and would travelelsewhere.
A rough estimate of this reduction can be obtained as follows:" Assume 50 percent of all households vacation for a two-week period over the summer." Assume these vacations, in aggregate, are uniformly dispersed over 10 weeks, i.e. 10percent of the population is on vacation during each two-week interval.
" Assume half of these vacationers leave the area.On this basis, the permanent resident population would be reduced by 5 percent in the summerand by a lesser amount in the off-season.
Given the uncertainty in this estimate, we elected toapply no reductions in permanent resident population for the summer scenarios to account forresidents who may be out of the area.3.1.1 Special Facilities The Clinton County Jail and several large medical facilities are located within the EPZ (see TableE-3 and Table E-7). These facilities have permanent residents that are included in the Census;however, the correctional facility will shelter-in-place (based on discussions with Exelon),
andthe medical facilities are transit dependent (will not evacuate in personal vehicles) and areaddressed in Section 8. As such, these residents are included in the EPZ resident population, but no evacuating vehicles are considered for these residents.
The vehicles in Table 3-2 andFigure 3-3 have been adjusted accordingly.
Quad Cities Generating Station 3-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 3.1.2 Colleges and Universities There are three higher education facilities with the EPZ. It is assumed that students willevacuate using personal vehicles.
Thus, no buses were considered for these facilities.
The sametrip generation distribution (see Section 5) as employees was used for those studentsevacuating in private vehicles as they are essentially commuters.
Clinton Community College Technology Center (located in Clinton, 8.0 miles north-northeast ofQDC) has a total of 100 students according to enrollment data provided by Exelon. It isconservatively assumed that none of the students are EPZ residents.
Each student is assumedto commute daily in a personal vehicle.
Thus, 100 evacuating vehicles are considered for thisschool.Clinton Community College (located in Clinton, 9.0 miles northeast of QDC) has a total of 400students according to enrollment data provided by Exelon. It is conservatively assumed thatnone of the students are EPZ residents.
Each student is assumed to commute daily in a personalvehicle.
Thus, 400 evacuating vehicles are considered for this school.Ashford University (located in Clinton, 10.3 miles northeast of QDC) has a total of 340 studentsaccording to enrollment data provided by Exelon. Aerial imagery was used to locate studentparking lots and count parking spaces. A total of 170 evacuating vehicles are considered for thisschool based on the parking lot capacity.
It is assumed that 50% of students will rideshare suchthat all students can be evacuated in the 170 vehicles.
Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-3KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Figure 3-1. QDC EPZQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 3-1. EPZ Permanent Resident Population IAM7163IA2 16 25IA3 706 637IA4 498 459IA5 5,032 4,640IA6 1,317 1,361IA7 374 355IA8 506 467IA9 476 437IA10 388 311IAll 26,910 26,567IA12 4,070 4,773ILl 256 260IL2 1,060 1,076IL3 1,008 977IL4 678 635IL5 434 461IL6 2,754 2,883EPZ Population Growth: -0.36%Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-5KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 3-2. Permanent Resident Population and Vehicles by Sub-areaIAM 63 35IA2 25 15IA3 637 366IA4 459 262IA5 4,640 2,670IA6 1,361 782IA7 355 202lA8 467 268IA9 437 254-1 17nIAll 26,567 14,873IA12 4,773 2,750ILl 260 149IL2 1,076 623IL3 977 559IL4 635 366IL5 461 268IL6 2,883 1,666--iim -8Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-6KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 NNNW 632 NNEF723 167IS65 -8650WNW466---3OWF651 1 22 162 1211 10 71WSW 98-545 -1SWe658Resident Population
-' ENE320150I54 s54E72 64 26 F3 38 5316 ESE23/ E172--0,-- SE24810 Miles to EPZ BoundaryN00051 0 014 000 0 E432SSW5,874-- I 0S2,855442--IMiles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total0-1 65 651-2 87 1522-3 340 4923 -4 1,205 1,6974 -5 2,927 4,6245-6 3,498 8,1226-7 2,161 10,2837-8 3,117 13,4008- 9 7,021 20,4219 -10 11,218 31,63910 -EPZ 14,748 46,387Total: 46,387WInset0 -2 Miles SFigure 3-2. Permanent Resident Population by Sector3-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-7KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 NNNWF416 IS 38364 NNE4.708oWNWF267IILW3737- 13WSW 56F3121-' ENE' 1881322932E41 37 15 67 F2232/13 i ESEF99/ ,/0SEF14310 Miles to EPZ BoundaryN0029 J0 08 000 0 E-.. 248SSW3,38-0 -S1,644F2-5 7Resident VehiclesMiles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total0-1 37 371-2 50 8722-3 194 2813-4 690 9714 -5 1,683 2,6545-6 2,019 4,6736-7 1,244 5,9177-8 1,797 7,7148- 9 4,036 11,7509 -10 6,320 18,07010 -EPZ 8,217 26,287Total: 26,287WInset0 -2 Miles SFigure 3-3. Permanent Resident Vehicles by SectorQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 3.2 Shadow Population A portion of the population living outside the evacuation area extending to 15 miles radiallyfrom the QDC (in the Shadow Region) may elect to evacuate without having been instructed todo so. Based upon NUREG/CR-7002
: guidance, it is assumed that 20 percent of the permanent resident population, based on U.S. Census Bureau data, in this Shadow Region will elect toevacuate.
Shadow population characteristics (household size, evacuating vehicles per household, mobilization time) are assumed to be the same as that for the EPZ permanent residentpopulation.
Table 3-3, Figure 3-4, and Figure 3-5 present estimates of the shadow population and vehicles, by sector.Note there is a large jail -the East Moline Correctional Center -within the Shadow Region. TheCensus block for this facility indicates a large resident population with no households assigned.
This block was filtered out and not included as part of the shadow population as jails outside ofthe EPZ would shelter-in-place.
Table 3-3. Shadow Population and Vehicles by SectorSector ~ ~ 6 Pouato EvcaigVhce N364208NNE 511 294NE 4,368 2,517ENE 442 254E 319 186ESE 2,151 1,240SE 712 410SSE 842 485S 2,348 1,356SSW 9,059 4,561SW 13,939 8,028WSW 2,865 1,649W 3,272 1,883WNW 5,689 3,274NW 215 124NNW 220 127Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-9KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 NNNWF220NNEF511WNWF5,689w3,272WSWENE95toE109 61 F3194069 ESEF2,15 11SEF 712S-, EPZ Boundary to 11 MilesSSW -- J- SSE~sShadow Population Miles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative TotalEPZ- 11 2,712 2,71211 -12 3,339 6,05112- 13 12,366 18,41713 -14 9,995 28,41214-15 18,904 47,316Total: 47,316Figure 3-4. Shadow Population by SectorQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-10KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 NF208NNWNNEWNWw1,883WSWENE5512E63 36 1855ESEF1,240SEF 410EPZ Boundary to 11 MilesSSW -J i -SSE4,561 S481T,3-5 6Shadow VehiclesMiles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative TotalEPZ -11 1,563 1,56311 -12 1,925 3,48812- 13 7,121 10,60913 -14 5,753 16,36214- 15 10,234 26,596Total 26,596Figure 3-5. Shadow Vehicles by SectorQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-11KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 3.3 Transient Population Transient population groups are defined as those people (who are not permanent residents, nor commuting employees) who enter the EPZ for a specific purpose (shopping, recreation).
Transients may spend less than one day or stay overnight at camping facilities, hotels andmotels. Data for these facilities were provided by Exelon. The QDC EPZ has a number of areasand facilities that attract transients, including:
" Lodging Facilities
-1,464 transients; 732 vehicles; 2.00 people per vehicle" Campgrounds
-719 transients; 322 vehicles; 2.24 people per vehicle* Parks -800 transients; 358 vehicles; 2.24 people per vehicle (NOTE: Local parks are notincluded; visitors to these facilities are local residents and have already been counted aspermanent residents in Section 3.1.)" Golf Courses -690 transients; 310 vehicles; 2.24 people per vehicle* Marinas -666 transients; 299 vehicles; 2.24 people per vehicle* Cordova Dragway -300 transients; 134 vehicles; 2.24 people per vehicle* Wild Rose Casino & Resort -1,500 transients; 670 vehicles; 2.24 people per vehicle* Riverview Stadium -1,200 transients; 536 vehicles; 2.24 people per vehicle" Showboat Theatre -180 transients; 81 vehicles; 2.24 people per vehicleIt is assumed that families will travel to marinas, campgrounds, parks, and other recreational facilities together in a single vehicle.
Thus, the average household size in the EPZ of 2.24persons (Figure F-i) is used as the vehicle occupancy for these facilities.
It is further assumedthat there are 2 people and 1 vehicle per occupied room at lodging facilities.
Appendix E summarizes the transient data that was gathered for the EPZ. Table E-5 presentsthe number of transients and vehicles at recreational areas, while Table E-6 presents thenumber of transients and vehicles at lodging facilities within the EPZ.Data provided by Exelon for the Riverview City Park (located in Clinton, 10.4 miles northeast ofQDC) indicated there are 1,500 people in the park during peak times. It is conservatively assumed that 50% of those in the park are transients as it is a city park intended for residents ofthe City of Clinton, which have already been counted as permanent residents in Section 3.1above. Thus, 750 transients evacuating in 335 vehicles were incorporated considered in thisstudy for Riverview City Park.Data for smaller facilities in Clinton, Iowa were also provided by Exelon. These facilities include:" Ericksen Community Center" Riverview Swimming Pool" George 0. Morris Park" Emma Young Park" Discovery TrailQuad Cities Generating Station 3-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time EstimateRev. 0 The mission statement of the City of Clinton Recreation department is to "meet the leisureprogram service needs of its citizens."
Thus, these facilities operate to serve the needs of theresidents of Clinton, whom have already been counted as permanent residents in Section 3.1above. Thus, no transients are considered at these facilities.
The Illinois Emergency Management Agency (IEMA) requested that the facilities identified inthe EPZ county plans be considered in this study. In addition to the major transient attractions discussed above and enumerated in Appendix E, the following smaller facilities within the EPZare listed in the county plans:SSSSSAlbany MarinaAlbany Indian MoundsDolan ParkGolden Meals SiteDorrance ParkThere are no transients considered at these facilities in this study. The people visiting thesefacilities have already been counted as permanent residents in Section 3.1 above.In total, there are 7,519 transients evacuating in 3,442 vehicles, an average of 2.18 transients per vehicle.
Table 3-4 presents transient population and transient vehicle estimates by Sub-area. Figure 3-6 and Figure 3-7 present these data by sector and distance from the plant.3-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-13KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 3-4. Summary of Transients and Transient VehiclesSubae.rninsTasetVhce IA1245110IA2 50 23IA3 0 0IA4 0 0IA5 348 166IA6 0 0IA7 0 0IA8 0 0IA9 0 0IA10 0 0IAll 5,398 2,465IA12 504 242ILl 300 134IL2 0 0IL3 0 0IL4 0 0IL5 0 0IL6 674 302Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-14KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 NNNW LITZF-245 - 0NNEWNWwwWSWENE0Eo' ESE0,/W-1-232ssw0SF200W---Transients Miles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total0-1 0 01-2 350 3502-3 245 5953-4 0 5954-5 0 5955-6 624 1,2196-7 1,752 2,9717-8 1,354 4,3258-9 140 4,4659- 10 276 4,74110 -EPZ 2,778 7,519Total: 7,519-,10 Miles to EPZ BoundaryN0 000 0 000 EWInset0 -2 Miles SFigure 3-6. Transient Population by SectorQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.3-15KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 NNNW-- 0-0 -' 1- 7NNEWNWw---IL-WWSW 0ENEwEF-0ESEZ Boundaryssw-I oSE90--wNTransient VehiclesMiles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total0-1 0 01-2 157 1572-3 110 2673-4 0 2674-5 0 2675-6 279 5466-7 791 1,3377 -8 654 1,9918-9 63 2,0549 -10 138 2,19210 -EPZ 1,250 3,442Total: 3,442WEInset0 -2 Miles SFigure 3-7. Transient Vehicles by SectorQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-16KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0
 
===3.4 Employees===
Employees who work within the EPZ fall into two categories:
" Those who live and work in the EPZ* Those who live outside of the EPZ and commute to jobs within the EPZ.Those of the first category are already counted as part of the permanent residentpopulation.
To avoid double counting, we focus only on those employees commuting fromoutside the EPZ who will evacuate along with the permanent resident population.
Maximum shift employment data were provided by Exelon for the major employers (generally speaking 50 or more employees in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002) in the EPZ. The IEMArequested that major employers listed in the county emergency plans be considered in thisstudy. These employers
-many of which have less than the 50 employees typical of a majoremployer
-are listed in Table E-4 along with the major employers in the EPZ. Phone calls wereplaced to some of these employers to gather data.Data obtained from the US Census Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics OnTheMapCensus analysis tool1 were used to estimate the number of employees commuting into the EPZto avoid double counting.
This tool allows the user to draw a cordon around any area in the USand a report of the number of employees commuting into and out of the cordoned area isproduced.
The tool was used to draw a cordon around the EPZ. The inflow/outflow report forthe EPZ was then used to calculate the percent of employees that work within the EPZ but liveoutside.
This value, 50.3%, was applied to the maximum shift employment to compute thenumber of people commuting into the EPZ to work at peak times.In Table E-4, the Employees (Max Shift) column is multiplied by the percent of employees commuting into the EPZ (50.3%) factor to determine the number of employees who are notresidents of the EPZ. It is conservatively assumed for all other major employers that there is 1employee per vehicle as carpooling in the US is minimal.Table 3-5 presents employees commuting into the EPZ and their vehicles by Sub-area.
Figure3-8 and Figure 3-9 present these data by sector.1 http://onthemap.ces.census.gov/
Quad Cities Generating Station 3-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 Table 3-5. Summary of Non-EPZ Resident Employees and Employee Vehiclesar 0o VehiclesIAM 0 0IA2 0 0IA3 0 0IA4 0 0IA5 856 856IA6 26 26I/I U UIA8 0 0IA9 0 0IA10 0 0IAll 1,324 1,324IA12 0 0ILl 562 562IL2 3 3IL3 25 25U14 0 0IL5 0 0IL6 10 10Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-18KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 NNNW-- 0i _ NNE-1 37 .37WNWr---1IIWW0WSWEmployees
-' ENE0E00i ESo S ["W0SEEo0 Mieo EZ Boundary, -T-o00 00 EE10Mls oEZBondr]* 0SSWF26I-0SF4361ELIMiles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total0-1 401 4011-2 161 5622-3 25 5873-4 26 6134-S 0 6135-6 218 8316-7 251 1,0827-8 739 1,8218-9 280 2,1019- 10 159 2,26010 -EPZ 546 2,806Total: 2,806WInset0 -2 Miles SFigure 3-8. Employee Population by Sector3-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-19KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 NNNW-015 NNES- -o 1,22~137 ',WNWin,'0 oW0 0 00WSW 0SWEmployee VehiclesI- ENE00oE0 0 01 Fi i0i0 ESE, --0,161/I" SE10 Miles to EPZ BoundaryR00 000 0 EI0SSW26--0 0S436F-0 --1Miles Subtotal by Ring Cumulative Total0-1 401 4011-2 161 5622-3 25 5873-4 26 6134-5 0 6135-6 218 8316-7 251 1,0827-8 739 1,8218-9 280 2,1019-10 159 2,26010 -EPZ 546 2,806Total: 2,806WInset0 -2 Miles SFigure 3-9. Employee Vehicles by SectorQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-20KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 3.5 Medical Facilities Data were provided by Exelon and Clinton County Emergency Management for each of themedical facilities within the EPZ. Table E-3 in Appendix E summarizes the data provided.
Section8 details the evacuation of medical facilities and their patients.
The number and type ofevacuating vehicles that need to be provided depend on the patients' state of health. It isestimated that buses can transport up to 30 people; wheelchair vans, up to 4 people; andambulances, up to 2 people.3.6 Total Demand in Addition to Permanent Population Vehicles will be traveling through the EPZ (external-external trips) at the time of an accident.
After the Advisory to Evacuate is announced, these through-travelers will also evacuate.
Thesethrough vehicles are assumed to travel on the major routes traversing the EPZ 80, 1-88 andState Route (SR) 5. It is assumed that this traffic will continue to enter the EPZ during the first120 minutes following the Advisory to Evacuate.
Average Annual Daily Traffic (AADT) data was obtained from Federal Highway Administration (HPMS, 2013) to estimate the number of vehicles per hour on the aforementioned routes. TheAADT was multiplied by the K-Factor (TRB, 2010), which is the proportion of the AADT on aroadway segment or link during the design hour, resulting in the design hour volume (DHV).The design hour is usually the 301h highest hourly traffic volume of the year, measured invehicles per hour (vph). The DHV is then multiplied by the D-Factor (TRB, 2010), which is theproportion of the DHV occurring in the peak direction of travel (also known as the directional split). The resulting values are the directional design hourly volumes (DDHV), and arepresented in Table 3-6, for each of the routes considered.
The DDHV is then multiplied by 2hours (access control points -ACP -are assumed to be activated at 120 minutes after theadvisory to evacuate) to estimate the total number of external vehicles loaded on the analysisnetwork.
As indicated, there are 8,788 vehicles entering the EPZ as external-external trips priorto the activation of the ACP and the diversion of this traffic.
This number is reduced by 60% forevening scenarios (Scenarios 5, 12 and 13) as discussed in Section 6.3.7 Special EventOne special event (Scenario
: 13) is considered for the ETE study -the Great River Tug Fest,which occurs annually in August (summer) over 3 days (Thursday through Saturday).
The eventoccurs in Le Claire, IA and Port Byron, IL.Tug Fest personnel indicated the Friday night fireworks show has the peak attendance duringthe event. Tug Fest personnel also indicated the total attendance for the event isapproximately 25,000 people for both sides of the river and over all three days. It is assumedthat 40% of the total population is in attendance during the peak times. Thus, 10,000 peopleare within Le Claire, IA and Port Byron, IL during the Friday night fireworks show. It is assumedthat the population is evenly split between the two cities, such that there are approximately 5,000 people within each city during the fireworks show. Tug Fest personnel indicated most ofQuad Cities Generating Station 3-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 these people are local residents.
Assuming 75% of these people are local residents and usingthe average household size of 2.24 people per household, there are 1,250 additional transients in 558 vehicles present in each city (2,500 total transients and 1,116 transient vehicles) duringthe Friday night fireworks show of the Great River Tug Fest.Temporary road closures are used for the parade portion of the festival, but all roadways couldbe quickly re-opened in the event of an emergency.
It is assumed that the roads would be re-opened by the time transients at the event gather their belongings and return to their vehiclesto begin their evacuation trip. Vehicles were loaded on local streets near the event for thisscenario.
Transit buses to transport attendees to parking lots are not considered as part of thisstudy.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-22KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 3-6. QDC EPZ External TrafficUptra Do ntra Roa Na e DrcinHIVSKFc.
-at oryEtraNode Noes-*. AAm Voum Traffic80581 58SR 5Eastbound 12,8000.1160.57421,4848050 50 1-80 Westbound 27,200 0.107 0.5 1,455 2,9108028 28 1-80 Wastbound 27,200 0.107 0.5 1,455 2,910Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.3-23KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 3.8 Summary of DemandA summary of population and vehicle demand is provided in Table 3-7 and Table 3-8,respectively.
This summary includes all population groups described in this section.
Additional population groups -transit-dependent, special facility and school population
-are described ingreater detail in Section 8. A total of 77,486 people and 47,857 vehicles are considered in thisstudy.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-24KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 3-7. Summary of Population DemandIAM 63 0 245 0 0 0 0 0 0 308IA2 25 0 50 0 0 0 0 0 0 75IA3 637 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 643IA4 459 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 459IAS 4,640 43 348 856 0 1,185 0 0 0 7,072IA6 1,361 12 0 26 0 264 0 0 0 1,663IA7 355 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 355IA8 467 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 467IA9 437 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 437IAlO 311 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 311IAll 26,567 240 5,398 1,324 756 5,289 840 0 0 40,414IA12 4,773 48 504 0 0 1,340 0 0 0 6,665ILl 260 0 300 562 0 0 0 0 0 1,122IL2 1,076 15 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 1,094IL3 977 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 1,002IL4 635 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 645IL5 461 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 461IL6 2,883 30 674 10 0 1,233 0 0 0 4,830Shadow 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 9,463 0 9,4632 Special Facilities include medical facilities and the Clinton County Jail.Shadow Population has been reduced to 20%. Refer to Figure 2-1 for additional information.
Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-25KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 3-8. Summary of Vehicle DemandIAM350110000000145IA2 15 0 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 38IA3 366 With IA57  0 0 0 0 0 0 0 366IA4 262 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 262IA5 2,670 4 166 856 0 42 0 0 0 3,738IA6 782 With IA12 0 26 0 8 0 0 0 816IA7 202 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 202IA8 268 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 268IA9 254 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 254IA10 179 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 179IAll 14,873 16 2,465 1,324 185 192 670 0 0 19,725IA12 2,750 4 242 0 0 46 0 0 0 3,042ILl 149 0 134 562 0 0 0 0 0 845IL2 623 2 0 3 0 0 0 0 0 628I13 559 0 0 25 0 0 0 0 0 584IL4 366 With IL2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 366IL5 268 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 268IL6 1,666 2 302 10 0 44 0 0 0 2,024Shadow 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,319 8,788 14,1074 Vehicles for special facilities include wheelchair vans, ambulances and buses. No vehicles are considered for the Clinton County Jail as it shelters-in-place.
5 School buses represented as two passenger vehicles.
Refer to Section 8 for additional information.
6 Vehicles for shadow population have been reduced to 20%. Refer to Figure 2-1 for additional information.
7 Transit-dependent residents from Sub-area IA3 evacuate on the same buses as Sub-area IAS.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate3-26KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 4 ESTIMATION OF HIGHWAY CAPACITYThe ability of the road network to service vehicle demand is a major factor in determining howrapidly an evacuation can be completed.
The capacity of a road is defined as the maximumhourly rate at which persons or vehicles can reasonably be expected to traverse a point oruniform section of a lane of roadway during a given time period under prevailing roadway,traffic and control conditions, as stated in the 2010 Highway Capacity Manual (TRB, 2010).In discussing
: capacity, different operating conditions have been assigned alphabetical designations, A through F, to reflect the range of traffic operational characteristics.
Thesedesignations have been termed "Levels of Service" (LOS). For example, LOS A connotesfree-flow and high-speed operating conditions; LOS F represents a forced flow condition.
LOS Edescribes traffic operating at or near capacity.
Another concept, closely associated with capacity, is "Service Volume" (SV). Service volume isdefined as "The maximum hourly rate at which vehicles, bicycles or persons reasonably can beexpected to traverse a point or uniform section of a roadway during an hour under specificassumed conditions while maintaining a designated level of service."
This definition is similar tothat for capacity.
The major distinction is that values of SV vary from one LOS to another, whilecapacity is the service volume at the upper bound of LOS E, only.This distinction is illustrated in Exhibit 11-17 of the HCM 2010. As indicated there, the SV varieswith Free Flow Speed (FFS), and LOS. The SV is calculated by the DYNEV II simulation model,based on the specified link attributes, FFS, capacity, control device and traffic demand.Other factors also influence capacity.
These include, but are not limited to:" Lane width" Shoulder width" Pavement condition
* Horizontal and vertical alignment (curvature and grade)* Percent truck traffic" Control device (and timing, if it is a signal)" Weather conditions (rain, snow, fog, wind speed, ice)These factors are considered during the road survey and in the capacity estimation process;some factors have greater influence on capacity than others. For example, lane and shoulderwidth have only a limited influence on Base Free Flow Speed (BFFS') according to Exhibit 15-7of the HCM. Consequently, lane and shoulder widths at the narrowest points were observedduring the road survey and these observations were recorded, but no detailed measurements of lane or shoulder width were taken. Horizontal and vertical alignment can influence both FFSand capacity.
The estimated FFS were measured using the survey vehicle's speedometer andobserving local traffic, under free flow conditions.
Capacity is estimated from the procedures ofIA very rough estimate of BFFS might be taken as the posted speed limit plus 10 mph (HCM 2010 Page 15-15)Quad Cities Generating Station 4-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 the 2010 HCM. For example, HCM Exhibit 7-1(b) shows the sensitivity of Service Volume at theupper bound of LOS D to grade (capacity is the Service Volume at the upper bound of LOS E).As discussed in Section 2.3, it is necessary to adjust capacity figures to represent the prevailing conditions during inclement weather.
Based on limited empirical data, weather conditions suchas rain reduce the values of free speed and of highway capacity by approximately 10percent.
Over the last decade new studies have been made on the effects of rain on trafficcapacity.
These studies indicate a range of effects between 5 and 20 percent depending onwind speed and precipitation rates. As indicated in Section 2.3, we employ a reduction in freespeed and in highway capacity of 10 percent and 20 percent for rain and snow, respectively.
Since congestion arising from evacuation may be significant, estimates of roadway capacitymust be determined with great care. Because of its importance, a brief discussion of the majorfactors that influence highway capacity is presented in this section.Rural highways generally consist of: (1) one or more uniform sections with limited access(driveways, parking areas) characterized by "uninterrupted" flow; and (2) approaches to at-grade intersections where flow can be "interrupted" by a control device or by turning orcrossing traffic at the intersection.
Due to these differences, separate estimates of capacitymust be made for each section.
Often, the approach to the intersection is widened by theaddition of one or more lanes (turn pockets or turn bays), to compensate for the lower capacityof the approach due to the factors there that can interrupt the flow of traffic.
These additional lanes are recorded during the field survey and later entered as input to the DYNEV II system.4.1 Capacity Estimations on Approaches to Intersections At-grade intersections are apt to become the first bottleneck locations under local heavy trafficvolume conditions.
This characteristic reflects the need to allocate access time to the respective competing traffic streams by exerting some form of control.
During evacuation, control atcritical intersections will often be provided by traffic control personnel assigned for thatpurpose, whose directions may supersede traffic control devices.
The existing trafficmanagement plans documented in the county emergency plans are extensive and wereadopted without change.The per-lane capacity of an approach to a signalized intersection can be expressed (simplistically) in the following form:Qca~m= 3600) (G -L) =3600)Ocap,m Chm )X ) m = hm ] X Pmwhere:Qcap,m Capacity of a single lane of traffic on an approach, which executesmovement, m, upon entering the intersection; vehicles per hour (vph)Quad Cities Generating Station 4-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 hm Mean queue discharge headway of vehicles on this lane that are executing
: movement, m; seconds per vehicleG = Mean duration of GREEN time servicing vehicles that are executing
: movement, m, for each signal cycle; secondsL = Mean "lost time" for each signal phase servicing
: movement, m; secondsC = Duration of each signal cycle; secondsPm = Proportion of GREEN time allocated for vehicles executing
: movement, m,from this lane. This value is specified as part of the control treatment.
m = The movement executed by vehicles after they enter theintersection:
: through, left-turn, right-turn, and diagonal.
The turn-movement-specific mean discharge headway hm, depends in a complex way uponmany factors:
roadway geometrics, turn percentages, the extent of conflicting traffic streams,the control treatment, and others. A primary factor is the value of "saturation queue discharge headway",
hsat, which applies to through vehicles that are not impeded by other conflicting traffic streams.
This value, itself, depends upon many factors including motorist behavior.
: Formally, we can write,hm = fm(hsat, F1, F2...)where:hsat = Saturation discharge headway for through vehicles; seconds per vehicleF1,F2  = The various known factors influencing hmfM() = Complex function relating hm to the known (or estimated) values of hsat,F1, F2, ...The estimation of hm for specified values of hsat, F1, F2, ... is undertaken within the DYNEV IIsimulation model by a mathematical model (Lieberman, 1980), (McShane, 1980), (Lieberman, 2012). The resulting values for hm always satisfy the condition:
hm >_ hsatThat is, the turn-movement-specific discharge headways are always greater than, or equal tothe saturation discharge headway for through vehicles.
These headways (or its inverseequivalent, "saturation flow rate"), may be determined by observation or using the procedures of the HCM 2010.The above discussion is necessarily brief given the scope of this ETE report and the complexity of the subject of intersection capacity.
In fact, Chapters 18, 19 and 20 in the HCM 2010 addressthis topic. The factors, F1, F2,..., influencing saturation flow rate are identified in equation (18-5)of the HCM 2010.Quad Cities Generating Station 4-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 The traffic signals within the EPZ and Shadow Region are modeled using representative phasingplans and phase durations obtained as part of the field data collection.
Traffic responsive signalinstallations allow the proportion of green time allocated (Pm) for each approach to eachintersection to be determined by the expected traffic volumes on each approach duringevacuation circumstances.
The amount of green time (G) allocated is subject to maximum andminimum phase duration constraints; 2 seconds of yellow time are indicated for each signalphase and 1 second of all-red time is assigned between signal phases, typically.
If a signal is pre-timed, the yellow and all-red times observed during the road survey are used. A lost time (L) of2.0 seconds is used for each signal phase in the analysis.
4.2 Capacity Estimation along Sections of HighwayThe capacity of highway sections
-- as distinct from approaches to intersections
-- is a functionof roadway geometrics, traffic composition (e.g. percent heavy trucks and buses in the trafficstream) and, of course, motorist behavior.
There is a fundamental relationship which relatesservice volume (i.e. the number of vehicles serviced within a uniform highway section in a giventime period) to traffic density.
The top curve in Figure 4-1 illustrates this relationship.
As indicated, there are two flow regimes:
(1) Free Flow (left side of curve); and (2) Forced Flow(right side). In the Free Flow regime, the traffic demand is fully serviced; the service volumeincreases as demand volume and density increase, until the service volume attains its maximumvalue, which is the capacity of the highway section.
As traffic demand and the resulting highwaydensity increase beyond this "critical" value, the rate at which traffic can be serviced (i.e. theservice volume) can actually decline below capacity
("capacity drop"). Therefore, in order torealistically represent traffic performance during congested conditions (i.e. when demandexceeds capacity),
it is necessary to estimate the service volume, VF, under congested conditions.
The value of VF can be expressed as:VF = R x Capacitywhere:R Reduction factor which is less than unityQuad Cities Generating Station 4-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 We have employed a value of R=0.90. The advisability of such a capacity reduction factor isbased upon empirical studies that identified a fall-off in the service flow rate when congestion occurs at "bottlenecks" or "choke points" on a freeway system. Zhang and Levinson describe aresearch program that collected data from a computer-based surveillance system (loopdetectors) installed on the Interstate Highway System, at 27 active bottlenecks in the twin citiesmetro area in Minnesota over a 7-week period (Zhang, 2004). When flow breakdown occurs,queues are formed which discharge at lower flow rates than the maximum capacity prior toobserved breakdown.
These queue discharge flow (QDF) rates vary from one location to thenext and also vary by day of week and time of day based upon local circumstances.
The citedreference presents a mean QDF of 2,016 passenger cars per hour per lane (pcphpl).
This figurecompares with the nominal capacity estimate of 2,250 pcphpl estimated for the ETE andindicated in Appendix K for freeway links. The ratio of these two numbers is 0.896 whichtranslates into a capacity reduction factor of 0.90.Since the principal objective of evacuation time estimate analyses is to develop a "realistic" estimate of evacuation times, use of the representative value for this capacity reduction factor(R=0.90) is justified.
This factor is applied only when flow breaks down, as determined by thesimulation model.Rural roads, like freeways, are classified as "uninterrupted flow" facilities.
(This is in contrastwith urban street systems which have closely spaced signalized intersections and are classified as "interrupted flow" facilities.)
As such, traffic flow along rural roads is subject to the sameeffects as freeways in the event traffic demand exceeds the nominal capacity, resulting inqueuing and lower QDF rates. As a practical matter, rural roads rarely break down at locations away from intersections.
Any breakdowns on rural roads are generally experienced atintersections where other model logic applies, or at lane drops which reduce capacity there.Therefore, the application of a factor of 0.90 is appropriate on rural roads, but rarely, if ever,activated.
The estimated value of capacity is based primarily upon the type of facility and on roadwaygeometrics.
Sections of roadway with adverse geometrics are characterized by lower free-flow speeds and lane capacity.
Exhibit 15-30 in the Highway Capacity Manual was referenced toestimate saturation flow rates. The impact of narrow lanes and shoulders on free-flow speedand on capacity is not material, particularly when flow is predominantly in one direction as isthe case during an evacuation.
The procedure used here was to estimate "section"
: capacity, VE, based on observations madetraveling over each section of the evacuation
: network, based on the posted speed limits andtravel behavior of other motorists and by reference to the 2010 HCM. The DYNEV II simulation model determines for each highway section, represented as a network link, whether itscapacity would be limited by the "section-specific" service volume, VE, or by theintersection-specific capacity.
For each link, the model selects the lower value of capacity.
Quad Cities Generating Station 4-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 4.3 Application to the QDC Study AreaAs part of the development of the link-node analysis network for the study area, an estimate ofroadway capacity is required.
The source material for the capacity estimates presented hereinis contained in:2010 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM)Transportation Research BoardNational Research CouncilWashington, D.C. (TRB, 2010)The highway system in the study area consists primarily of three categories of roads and, ofcourse, intersections:
* Two-Lane roads: Local, State" Multi-Lane Highways (at-grade)
" FreewaysEach of these classifications will be discussed.
4.3.1 Two-Lane RoadsRef: HCM Chapter 15 (TRB, 2010)Two lane roads comprise the majority of highways within the EPZ. The per-lane capacity of atwo-lane highway is estimated at 1,700 passenger cars per hour (pc/h). This estimate isessentially independent of the directional distribution of traffic volume except that, forextended distances, the two-way capacity will not exceed 3,200 pc/h. The HCM procedures then estimate Level of Service (LOS) and Average Travel Speed. The DYNEV II simulation modelaccepts the specified value of capacity as input and computes average speed based on thetime-varying demand: capacity relations.
Based on the field survey and on expected traffic operations associated with evacuation scenarios:
" Most sections of two-lane roads within the EPZ are classified as "Class I", with "levelterrain";
some are "rolling terrain".
" "Class II" highways are mostly those within urban and suburban centers.4.3.2 Multi-Lane HighwayRef: HCM Chapter 14 (TRB, 2010)Exhibit 14-2 of the HCM 2010 presents a set of curves that indicate a per-lane capacity rangingfrom approximately 1,900 to 2,200 pc/h, for free-speeds of 45 to 60 mph, respectively.
Basedon observation, the multi-lane highways outside of urban areas within the EPZ service trafficwith free-speeds in this range. The actual time-varying speeds computed by the simulation model reflect the demand: capacity relationship and the impact of control at intersections.
AQuad Cities Generating Station 4-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 conservative estimate of per-lane capacity of 1,900 pc/h is adopted for this study for multi-lane highways outside of urban areas, as shown in Appendix K.4.3.3 FreewaysRef: HCM Chapters 10, 11, 12, 13 (TRB, 2010)Chapter 10 of the HCM 2010 describes a procedure for integrating the results obtained inChapters 11, 12 and 13, which compute capacity and LOS for freeway components.
Chapter 10also presents a discussion of simulation models. The DYNEV II simulation model automatically performs this integration process.Chapter 11 of the HCM 2010 presents procedures for estimating capacity and LOS for "BasicFreeway Segments".
Exhibit 11-17 of the HCM 2010 presents capacity vs. free speed estimates, which are provided below.Free Speed (mph): 55 60 65 70+Per-Lane Capacity (pc/h): 2250 2300 2350 2400The inputs to the simulation model are highway geometrics, free-speeds and capacity based onfield observations.
The simulation logic calculates actual time-varying speeds based on demand:capacity relationships.
A conservative estimate of per-lane capacity of 2,250 pc/h is adopted forthis study for freeways, as shown in Appendix K.Chapter 12 of the HCM 2010 presents procedures for estimating
: capacity, speed, density andLOS for freeway weaving sections.
The simulation model contains logic that relates speed todemand volume: capacity ratio. The value of capacity obtained from the computational procedures detailed in Chapter 12 depends on the "Type" and geometrics of the weavingsegment and on the "Volume Ratio" (ratio of weaving volume to total volume).Chapter 13 of the HCM 2010 presents procedures for estimating capacities of ramps and of"merge" areas. There are three significant factors to the determination of capacity of a ramp-freeway junction:
The capacity of the freeway immediately downstream of an on-ramp orimmediately upstream of an off-ramp; the capacity of the ramp roadway; and the maximumflow rate entering the ramp influence area. In most cases, the freeway capacity is thecontrolling factor. Values of this merge area capacity are presented in Exhibit 13-8 of the HCM2010, and depend on the number of freeway lanes and on the freeway free speed. Rampcapacity is presented in Exhibit 13-10 and is a function of the ramp free flow speed. The DYNEVII simulation model logic simulates the merging operations of the ramp and freeway traffic inaccord with the procedures in Chapter 13 of the HCM 2010. If congestion results from anexcess of demand relative to capacity, then the model allocates service appropriately to thetwo entering traffic streams and produces LOS F conditions (The HCM does not address LOS Fexplicitly).
Quad Cities Generating Station 4-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
 
====4.3.4 Intersections====
Ref: HCM Chapters 18, 19, 20, 21 (TRB, 2010)Procedures for estimating capacity and LOS for approaches to intersections are presented inChapter 18 (signalized intersections),
Chapters 19, 20 (un-signalized intersections) and Chapter21 (roundabouts).
The complexity of these computations is indicated by the aggregate lengthof these chapters.
The DYNEV II simulation logic is likewise complex.The simulation model explicitly models intersections:
Stop/yield controlled intersections (both2-way and all-way) and traffic signal controlled intersections.
Where intersections arecontrolled by fixed time controllers, traffic signal timings are set to reflect average (non-evacuation) traffic conditions.
Actuated traffic signal settings respond to the time-varying demands of evacuation traffic to adjust the relative capacities of the competing intersection approaches.
The model is also capable of modeling the presence of manned traffic control.
At specificlocations where it is advisable or where existing plans call for overriding existing traffic controlto implement manned control, the model will use actuated signal timings that reflect thepresence of traffic guides. At locations where a special traffic control strategy (continuous left-turns, contra-flow lanes) is used, the strategy is modeled explicitly.
Where applicable, thelocation and type of traffic control for nodes in the evacuation network are noted in AppendixK. The characteristics of the ten highest volume signalized intersections are detailed inAppendix J.4.4 Simulation and Capacity Estimation Chapter 6 of the HCM is entitled, "HCM and Alternative Analysis Tools." The chapter discusses the use of alternative tools such as simulation modeling to evaluate the operational performance of highway networks.
Among the reasons cited in Chapter 6 to consider usingsimulation as an alternative analysis tool is:"The system under study involves a group of different facilities or travel modes withmutual interactions invoking several procedural chapters of the HCM. Alternative toolsare able to analyze these facilities as a single system."This statement succinctly describes the analyses required to determine traffic operations acrossan area encompassing an EPZ operating under evacuation conditions.
The model utilized forthis study, DYNEV II, is further described in Appendix C. It is essential to recognize thatsimulation models do not replicate the methodology and procedures of the HCM -they replacethese procedures by describing the complex interactions of traffic flow and computing Measures of Effectiveness (MOE) detailing the operational performance of traffic over time andby location.
The DYNEV II simulation model includes some HCM 2010 procedures only for thepurpose of estimating capacity.
All simulation models must be calibrated properly with field observations that quantify theperformance parameters applicable to the analysis network.
Two of the most important ofQuad Cities Generating Station 4-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 these are: (1) Free flow speed (FFS); and (2) saturation
: headway, hsat. The first of these isestimated by direct observation during the road survey; the second is estimated using theconcepts of the HCM 2010, as described earlier.
These parameters are listed in Appendix K, foreach network link.Volume, vphDropR.. QSVfR vc -* lowRegimes mph :m Free: Forced:---II ,,II II I* I* !* !Density, vpm-*. Density, vpmi
* ik0o~t k5k)!Figure 4-1. Fundamental DiagramsQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate4-9KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 5 ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIMEFederal Government guidelines (see NUREG CR-7002) specify that the planner estimate thedistributions of elapsed times associated with mobilization activities undertaken by the publicto prepare for the evacuation trip. The elapsed time associated with each activity isrepresented as a statistical distribution reflecting differences between members of the public.The quantification of these activity-based distributions relies largely on the results of thetelephone survey. We define the sum of these distributions of elapsed times as the TripGeneration Time Distribution.
 
===5.1 Background===
In general, an accident at a nuclear power plant is characterized by the following Emergency Classification Levels (see Appendix 1 of NUREG 0654 for details):
: 1. Unusual Event2. Alert3. Site Area Emergency
: 4. General Emergency At each level, the Federal guidelines specify a set of Actions to be undertaken by the Licensee, and by State and Local offsite authorities.
As a Planning Basis, we will adopt a conservative
: posture, in accordance with Section 1.2 of NUREG/CR-7002, that a rapidly escalating accident willbe considered in calculating the Trip Generation Time. We will assume:1. The Advisory to Evacuate will be announced coincident with the siren notification.
: 2. Mobilization of the general population will commence within 15 minutes after the sirennotification.
: 3. ETE are measured relative to the Advisory to Evacuate.
We emphasize that the adoption of this planning basis is not a representation that these eventswill occur within the indicated time frame. Rather, these assumptions are necessary in orderto:1. Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Generation distribution in theformat recommended in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863.
: 2. Identify temporal points of reference that uniquely define "Clear Time" and ETE.It is likely that a longer time will elapse between the various classes of an emergency.
For example, suppose one hour elapses from the siren alert to the Advisory to Evacuate.
In thiscase, it is reasonable to expect some degree of spontaneous evacuation by the public duringthis one-hour period. As a result, the population within the EPZ will be lower when theAdvisory to Evacuate is announced, than at the time of the siren alert. In addition, many willengage in preparation activities to evacuate, in anticipation that an Advisory will be broadcast.
Thus, the time needed to complete the mobilization activities and the number of peopleremaining to evacuate the EPZ after the Advisory to Evacuate, will both be somewhat less thanQuad Cities Generating Station 5-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 the estimates presented in this report. Consequently, the ETE presented in this report arehigher than the actual evacuation time, if this hypothetical situation were to take place.The notification process consists of two events:1. Transmitting information using the alert notification systems available within the EPZ(e.g. sirens, tone alerts, EAS broadcasts, loud speakers).
: 2. Receiving and correctly interpreting the information that is transmitted.
The population within the EPZ is dispersed over an area of approximately 367 square miles andis engaged in a wide variety of activities.
It must be anticipated that some time will elapsebetween the transmission and receipt of the information advising the public of an accident.
The amount of elapsed time will vary from one individual to the next depending on where thatperson is, what that person is doing, and related factors.
Furthermore, some persons who willbe directly involved with the evacuation process may be outside the EPZ at the time theemergency is declared.
These people may be commuters, shoppers and other travelers whoreside within the EPZ and who will return to join the other household members upon receiving notification of an emergency.
As indicated in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863, the estimated elapsed times for the receipt ofnotification can be expressed as a distribution reflecting the different notification times fordifferent people within, and outside, the EPZ. By using time distributions, it is also possible todistinguish between different population groups and different day-of-week and time-of-day scenarios, so that accurate ETE may be computed.
For example, people at home or at work within the EPZ will be notified by siren, and/or tonealert and/or radio (if available).
Those well outside the EPZ will be notified by telephone, radio,TV and word-of-mouth, with potentially longer time lags. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the EPZ population will differ with time of day -families will be united in the evenings, butdispersed during the day. In this respect, weekends will differ from weekdays.
As indicated in Section 4.1 of NUREG/CR-7002, the information required to compute tripgeneration times is typically obtained from a telephone survey of EPZ residents.
Such a surveywas conducted in support of this ETE study. Appendix F discusses the survey sampling plan anddocuments the survey instrument and survey results.
The remaining discussion will focus onthe application of the trip generation data obtained from the telephone survey to thedevelopment of the ETE documented in this report.Quad Cities Generating Station 5-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 5.2 Fundamental Considerations The environment leading up to the time that people begin their evacuation trips consists of asequence of events and activities.
Each event (other than the first) occurs at an instant in timeand is the outcome of an activity.
Activities are undertaken over a period of time. Activities may be in "series" (i.e. to undertake an activity implies the completion of all preceding events) or may be in parallel (two or moreactivities may take place over the same period of time). Activities conducted in series arefunctionally dependent on the completion of prior activities; activities conducted in parallel arefunctionally independent of one another.
The relevant events associated with the public'spreparation fo'r evacuation are:Event Number12345Event Description Notification Awareness of Situation Depart WorkArrive HomeDepart on Evacuation TripAssociated with each sequence of events are one or more activities, as outlined below:Table 5-1. Event Sequence for Evacuation Activities 1 -- 2 Receive Notification 12 -- 3 Prepare to Leave Work 22,3 -4 4 Travel Home 32,4 -- 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate 4N/A Snow Clearance 5These relationships are shown graphically in Figure 5-1.SSAn Event is a 'state' that exists at a point in time (e.g., depart work, arrive home)An Activity is a 'process' that takes place over some elapsed time (e.g., prepare to leavework, travel home)As such, a completed Activity changes the 'state' of an individual (e.g. the activity,
'travel home'changes the state from 'depart work' to 'arrive home'). Therefore, an Activity can be described asan 'Event Sequence';
the elapsed times to perform an event sequence vary from one person to thenext and are described as statistical distributions on the following pages.An employee who lives outside the EPZ will follow sequence (c) of Figure 5-1. A household Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-3KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 within the EPZ that has one or more commuters at work, and will await their return beforebeginning the evacuation trip will follow the first sequence of Figure 5-1(a). A household withinthe EPZ that has no commuters at work, or that will not await the return of any commuters, willfollow the second sequence of Figure 5-1(a), regardless of day of week or time of day.Households with no commuters on weekends or in the evening/night-time, will follow theapplicable sequence in Figure 5-1(b). Transients will always follow one of the sequences ofFigure 5-1(b). Some transients away from their residence could elect to evacuate immediately without returning to the residence, as indicated in the second sequence.
It is seen from Figure 5-1, that the Trip Generation time (i.e. the total elapsed time from Event 1to Event 5) depends on the scenario and will vary from one household to the next.Furthermore, Event 5 depends, in a complicated way, on the time distributions of all activities preceding that event. That is, to estimate the time distribution of Event 5, we must obtainestimates of the time distributions of all preceding events. For this study, we adopt theconservative posture that all activities will occur in sequence.
In some cases, assuming certain events occur strictly sequential (for instance, commuterreturning home before beginning preparation to leave, or removing snow only after thepreparation to leave) can result in rather conservative (that is, longer) estimates of mobilization times. It is reasonable to expect that at least some parts of these events will overlap for manyhouseholds, but that assumption is not made in this study.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-4KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 1 2Alk -f345Residents Residents W MWHouseholds waitfor Commuters 11As25AmhHouseholds withoutCommuters andhouseholds who do notwait for Commuters
-IWMWwI (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year roundIResidents, Transients away fromResidence Residents, Transients atResidence 1 2Aft-f4-Af5w1_MW _M WReturn to residence, then evacuateResidents at home;transients evacuate directly2As5Aa-3~~ bWWW(b) Accident occurs durngw eekendI lor dturing the vnn?1 2 3,5-A h PZACTIVITIES 1 .2 Receive Notification 2 -- 3 Prepare to Leave Work2, 3 .4 Travel Home2, 4 0 5 Prepare to Leave to EvacuateActivities Consume TimeEVENTS1. Notification
: 2. Aware of situation
: 3. Depart work4. Arrive home5. Depart on evacuation trip01 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.2 Applies throughout the year for transients.
Figure 5-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation TripQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-5KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 5.3 Estimated Time Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5The time distribution of an event is obtained by "summing" the time distributions of all priorcontributing activities.
(This "summing" process is quite different than an algebraic sum since itis performed on distributions
-not scalar numbers).
Time Distribution No. 1, Notification Process:
Activity 1 -- 2Federal regulations (10CFR 50 Appendix E, Item IV.D.3) stipulate,
"[t]he design objective of theprompt public alert and notification system shall be to have the capability to essentially completethe initial alerting and initiate notification of the public within the plume exposure pathway EPZwithin about 15 minutes" (NRC, 2011b) Furthermore, Item 2 of Section B in Appendix 3 ofNUREG/CR-0654/FEMA-REP-1 states that "special arrangements will be made to assure 100%coverage within 45 minutes of the population who may not have received the initial notification within the entire plume exposure EPZ" (NRC, 1980b). Given the federal regulations and guidance, and the presence of sirens within the EPZ, it is assumed that 100% of the population in the EPZ canbe notified within 45 minutes.
The assumed distribution for notifying the EPZ population isprovided in Table 5-2.Table 5-2. Time Distribution for Notifying the PublicElase Tim Pecn of(iue)Ppulaio Notifie0 0%5 7%10 13%15 27%20 47%25 66%30 87%35 92%40 97%45 100%Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-6KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Distribution No. 2, Prepare to Leave Work: Activity 2 -> 3It is reasonable to expect that the vast majority of business enterprises within the EPZ will electto shut down following notification and most employees would leave workquickly.
Commuters, who work outside the EPZ could, in all probability, also leave quickly sincefacilities outside the EPZ would remain open and other personnel would remain. Personnel orfarmers responsible for equipment/livestock would require additional time to secure theirfacility.
The distribution of Activity 2 ->) 3 shown in Table 5-3 reflects data obtained by thetelephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2.Table 5-3. Time Distribution for Employees to Prepare to Leave WorkCuuatv00%15 73%30 92%45 95%60 97%75 100%NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response.
That is, the sample was reduced insize to include only those households who responded to this question.
The underlying assumption is that thedistribution of this activity for the "Don't know" responders, if the event takes place, would be the same as thoseresponders who provided estimates.
Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-7KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Distribution No. 3. Travel Home: Activity 3 -> 4These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-4.Table 5-4. Time Distribution for Commuters to Travel Home00%15 58%30 90%45 94%60 98%75 100%NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" responseDistribution No. 4, Prepare to Leave Home: Activity 2, 4 -> 5These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-5.Table 5-5. Time Distribution for Population to Prepare to Evacuate.0-Cumulative 00%20 27%40 73%60 88%90 96%120 100%NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" responseQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-8KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Distribution No. 5, Snow Clearance Time Distribution Inclement weather scenarios involving snowfall must address the time lags associated withsnow clearance.
It is assumed that snow equipment is mobilized and deployed during thesnowfall to maintain passable roads. The general consensus is that the snow-plowing effortsare generally successful for all but the most extreme blizzards when the rate of snowaccumulation exceeds that of snow clearance over a period of many hours.Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that the highway system will remain passable
-albeitat a lower capacity
-under the vast majority of snow conditions.
Nevertheless, for the vehiclesto gain access to the highway system, it may be necessary for driveways and employee parkinglots to be cleared to the extent needed to permit vehicles to gain access to the roadways.
These clearance activities take time; this time must be incorporated into the trip generation time distributions.
This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-6.The data in Table 5-6 are adapted from a survey conducted of households in the Duane ArnoldEnergy Center (DAEC) EPZ in 2012. DAEC is located in Iowa, approximately 80 miles west-northwest of QDC. It is assumed that snowfall and snow removal times are comparable in bothEPZs.Table 5-6. Time Distribution for Population to Clear 6V-8" of SnowEumlaiv046%15 60%30 82%45 88%60 96%75 97%90 98%105 98%120 100%NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" responseQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-9KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Mobilization Activities 100%U<Cf0.N4..(UN.00300CLE0(UL.00.C.0J1..80%60%40%20%-Notification
-Prepare to Leave Work-Travel Home-Prepare to Leave Home-Clear Snow0%0153045607590105120Elapsed Time from Start of Mobilization Acitivty (min)Figure 5-2. Evacuation Mobilization Activities Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-10KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 5.4 Calculation of Trip Generation Time Distribution The time distributions for each of the mobilization activities presented herein must becombined to form the appropriate Trip Generation Distributions.
As discussed above, this studyassumes that the stated events take place in sequence such that all preceding events must becompleted before the current event can occur. For example, if a household awaits the returnof a commuter, the work-to-home trip (Activity 3 -> 4) must precede Activity 4 --> 5.To calculate the time distribution of an event that is dependent on two sequential activities, it isnecessary to "sum" the distributions associated with these prior activities.
The distribution summing algorithm is applied repeatedly as shown to form the required distribution.
As anoutcome of this procedure, new time distributions are formed; we assign "letter" designations to these intermediate distributions to describe the procedure.
Table 5-7 presents the summingprocedure to arrive at each designated distribution.
Table 5-7. Mapping Distributions to EventsAppl "Smig Aloih To Ditibto Obaie Even DefneDistributions 1 and 2Distribution AEvent 3Distributions A and 3 Distribution B Event 4Distributions B and 4 Distribution C Event 5Distributions 1 and 4 Distribution D Event 5Distributions C and 5 Distribution E Event 5Distributions D and 5 Distribution F Event 5Table 5-8 presents a description of each of the final trip generation distributions achieved after thesumming process is completed.
Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-11KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 5-8. Description of the Distributions i stri .t, Desc io.neTime distribution of commuters departing place of work (Event 3). Also appliesA to employees who work within the EPZ who live outside, and to Transients within the EPZ.B Time distribution of commuters arriving home (Event 4).Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving hometo begin the evacuation trip (Event 5).D Time distribution of residents without commuters returning home, leaving hometo begin the evacuation trip (Event 5).Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving homeEto begin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).Time distribution of residents with no commuters returning home, leaving tobegin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).5.4.1 Statistical OutliersAs already mentioned, some portion of the survey respondents answer "don't know" to somequestions or choose to not respond to a question.
The mobilization activity distributions are basedupon actual responses.
But, it is the nature of surveys that a few numeric responses areinconsistent.with the overall pattern of results.
An example would be a case in which for 500responses, almost all of them estimate less than two hours for a given answer, but 3 say "fourhours" and 4 say "six or more hours".These "outliers" must be considered:
are they valid responses, or so atypical that they should bedropped from the sample?In assessing
: outliers, there are three alternates to consider:
: 1) Some responses with very long times may be valid, but reflect the reality that therespondent really needs to be classified in a different population
: subgroup, based uponspecial needs;2) Other responses may be unrealistic (6 hours to return home from commuting
: distance, or 2 days to prepare the home for departure);
: 3) Some high values are representative and plausible, and one must not cut them as partof the consideration of outliers.
The issue of course is how to make the decision that a given response or set of responses are to beconsidered "outliers" for the component mobilization activities, using a method that objectively quantifies the process.There is considerable statistical literature on the identification and treatment of outliers singly orin groups, much of which assumes the data is normally distributed and some of which uses non-Quad Cities Generating Station 5-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 parametric methods to avoid that assumption.
The literature cites that limited work has beendone directly on outliers in sample survey responses.
In establishing the overall mobilization time/trip generation distributions, the following principles are used:1) It is recognized that the overall trip generation distributions are conservative estimates, because they assume a household will do the mobilization activities sequentially, with nooverlap of activities;
: 2) The individual mobilization activities (prepare to leave work, travel home, prepare home,clear snow) are reviewed for outliers, and then the overall trip generation distributions arecreated (see Figure 5-1, Table 5-7, Table 5-8);3) Outliers can be eliminated either because the response reflects a special population (e.g.special needs, transit dependent) or lack of realism, because the purpose is to estimate tripgeneration patterns for personal vehicles;
: 4) To eliminate
: outliers, a) the mean and standard deviation of the specific activity are estimated from theresponses, b) the median of the same data is estimated, with its position relative to the meannoted,c) the histogram of the data is inspected, andd) all values greater than 3.5 standard deviations are flagged for attention, takingspecial note of whether there are gaps (categories with zero entries) in thehistogram display.In general, only flagged values more than 4 standard deviations from the mean are allowedto be considered
: outliers, with gaps in the histogram expected.
When flagged values are classified as outliers and dropped, steps "a" to "d" are repeated.
Quad Cities Generating Station 5-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
: 5) As a practical matter, even with outliers eliminated by the above, the resultant histogram, viewed as a cumulative distribution, is not a normal distribution.
A typical situation thatresults is shown below in Figure 5-3.100.0%90.0%80.0%7g 70.0%U 60.0%U50.0%Z 40.0%4-= 30.0%E20.0%10.0%0.0%Lq Lq LA Lq LA LA Ln LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA LA-4 -1 rq rq m n 4 n L L LA L 66 in v -4Center of Interval (minutes)
-Cumulative Data --Cumulative NormalFigure 5-3. Comparison of Data Distribution and Normal Distribution
: 6) In particular, the cumulative distribution differs from the normal distribution in two keyaspects, both very important in loading a network to estimate evacuation times:Most of the real data is to the left of the "normal" curve above, indicating that thenetwork loads faster for the first 80-85% of the vehicles, potentially causing more (andearlier) congestion than otherwise modeled;The last 10-15% of the real data "tails off' slower than the comparable "normal" curve,indicating that there is significant traffic still loading at later times.Because these two features are important to preserve, it is the histogram of the data thatis used to describe the mobilization activities, not a "normal" curve fit to the data. Onecould consider other distributions, but using the shape of the actual data curve isunambiguous and preserves these important features;
: 7) With the mobilization activities each modeled according to Steps 1-6, including preserving the features cited in Step 6, the overall (or total) mobilization times are constructed.
Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-14KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 This is done by using the data sets and distributions under different scenarios (e.g. commuterreturning, no commuter returning, no snow or snow in each). In general, these are additive, usingweighting based upon the probability distributions of each element; Figure 5-4 presents thecombined trip generation distributions designated A, C, D, E and F. These distributions arepresented on the same time scale. (As discussed
: earlier, the use of strictly additive activities is aconservative
: approach, because it makes all activities sequential
-preparation for departure follows the return of the commuter; snow clearance follows the preparation for departure, and soforth. In practice, it is reasonable that some of these activities are done in parallel, at least tosome extent -for instance, preparation to depart begins by a household member at home whilethe commuter is still on the road.)The mobilization distributions that result are used in their tabular/graphical form as direct inputsto later computations that lead to the ETE.The DYNEV II simulation model is designed to accept varying rates of vehicle trip generation foreach origin centroid, expressed in the form of histograms.
These histograms, which represent Distributions A, C, D, E and F, properly displaced with respect to one another, are tabulated inTable 5-9 (Distribution B, Arrive Home, omitted for clarity).
The final time period (15) is 600 minutes long. This time period is added to allow the analysisnetwork to clear, in the event congestion persists beyond the trip generation period. Note thatthere are no trips generated during this final time period.5.4.2 Staged Evacuation Trip Generation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:
: 1. Sub-areas comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately
: 2. Sub-areas comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised toshelter in-place while the 2 mile region is cleared3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, sheltered people from 2 to 5 miles downwindcontinue preparation for evacuation
: 4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region are advised to begin evacuating whenapproximately 90% of those originally within the 2 mile region evacuate across the 2mile region boundary5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadowevacuation percentage of 20%Assumptions
: 1. The EPZ population in Sub-areas beyond 5 miles will react as does the population in the2 to 5 mile region; that is they will first shelter, then evacuate after the 90th percentile ETE for the 2 mile region2. The population in the shadow region beyond the EPZ boundary, extending toapproximately 15 miles radially from the plant, will react as they do for all non-staged Quad Cities Generating Station 5-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 evacuation scenarios.
That is 20% of these households will elect to evacuate with noshelter delay.3. The transient population will not be expected to stage their evacuation because of thelimited sheltering options available to people who may be at parks, on a beach, or atother venues. Also, notifying the transient population of a staged evacuation wouldprove difficult.
: 4. Employees will also be assumed to evacuate without first sheltering.
Procedure
: 1. Trip generation for population groups in the 2 mile region will be as computed basedupon the results of the telephone survey and analysis.
: 2. Trip generation for the population subject to staged evacuation will be formulated asfollows:a. Identify the 90th percentile evacuation time for the Sub-areas comprising the 2mile region. This value, Tscen*, is obtained from simulation results.
It will becomethe time at which the region being sheltered will be told to evacuate for eachscenario.
: b. The resultant trip generation curves for staging are then formed as follows:i. The non-shelter trip generation curve is followed until a maximum of 20%of the total trips are generated (to account for shelter non-compliance).
ii. No additional trips are generated until time Tscen*iii. Following time Tscen*, the balance of trips are generated:
: 1. by stepping up and then following the non-shelter trip generation curve (if Tscen* is < max trip generation time) or2. by stepping up to 100% (if Tscen* is > max trip generation time)c. Note: This procedure implies that there may be different staged trip generation distributions for different scenarios.
NUREG/CR-7002 uses the statement "approximately 90th percentile" as the time to end staging and begin evacuating.
The value of Tscen* is 1:30 for non-snow scenarios and 1:45 for snow scenarios.
: 3. Staged trip generation distributions are created for the following population groups:a. Residents with returning commuters
: b. Residents without returning commuters
: c. Residents with returning commuters and snow conditions
: d. Residents without returning commuters and snow conditions Figure 5-5 presents the staged trip generation distributions for both residents with and withoutreturning commuters; the 90th percentile two-mile evacuation time is 90 minutes for goodweather and 105 minutes for snow scenarios.
At the 90th percentile evacuation time, 20% ofthe population (who normally would have completed their mobilization activities for an un-staged evacuation) advised to shelter has nevertheless departed the area. These people do notcomply with the shelter advisory.
Also included on the plot are the trip generation distributions for these groups as applied to the regions advised to evacuate immediately.
Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-16KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Since the 90th percentile evacuation time occurs before the end of the trip generation time,after the sheltered region is advised to evacuate, the shelter trip generation distribution rises tomeet the balance of the non-staged trip generation distribution.
Following time Tscen*, thebalance of staged evacuation trips that are ready to depart are released within 15 minutes.
AfterTscen*+15, the remainder of evacuation trips are generated in accordance with the un-staged tripgeneration distribution.
provides the trip generation histograms for staged evacuation.
5.4.3 Trip Generation for Waterways and Recreational AreasPage 88 of the Scott County Radiological Emergency Response Plan indicates the US CoastGuard is responsible for closing the Mississippi River to all traffic and recreational activities from river mile marker 490 to river mile marker 520 in the event of an emergency at QDC.Additionally, item number 4 of Part D of the Illinois Plan for Radiological Accidents indicates theIllinois Department of Natural Resources staff is responsible for warning and/or evacuating traffic on the Mississippi River.As indicated in Table 5-2, this study assumes 100% notification in 45 minutes.
Table 5-9indicates that all transients will have mobilized within 1 hour and 45 minutes.
It is assumed thatthis 1 hour and 45 minute timeframe is sufficient time for boaters, campers and othertransients to return to their vehicles and begin their evacuation trip.5-17 KLD Engineering, p.c.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-17KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 1000.I-UmCCCO.Wko03C00.0CL49-0CL80604020Trip Generation Distributions
-Employees/Transients
-Residents with Commuters
-Residents with no Commuters
-Res with Comm and Snow -Res no Comm with Snow0060120 180Elapsed Time from Evacuation Advisory (min)240300Figure 5-4. Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-18KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 5-9. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Un-staged Evacuation 21530%30%0%10%UYO5%3 15 41% 41% 3% 23% 2% 13%4 15 16% 16% 11% 27% 5% 19%5 15 4% 4% 18% 19% 12% 19%6 15 2% 2% 20% 9% 15% 15%7 15 2% 2% 18% 5% 16% 10%8 15 0% 0% 11% 3% 15% 7%9 15 0% 0% 8% 2% 11% 4%10 15 0% 0% 5% 1% 8% 3%11 30 0% 0% 5% 0% 10% 3%12 30 0% 0% 1% 0% 4% 1%13 30 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%14 60 0% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%15 600 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%" 0%NOTE:* Shadow vehicles are loaded onto the analysis network (Figure 1-2) using Distributions C and E for good weather and snow, respectively.
" Special event vehicles are loaded using Distribution A.Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-19KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Staged and Un-staged Evacuation Trip Generation
-Employees
/ Transients
-Residents with no Commuters
-Res no Comm with Snow-Staged Residents with no Commuters
-Residents with Commuters
-Res with Comm and Snow-Staged Residents with Commuters
-Staged Residents with Commuters (Snow)100ccI-CCCLAlCL0L80604020//000`0;Ooe00306090120150180210240270300Elapsed Time from Evacuation Advisory (min)Figure 5-5. Comparison of Staged and Un-staged Trip Generation Distributions in the 2 to 5 Mile RegionQuad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-20KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0 Table 5-10. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Staged Evacuation Pecn Toa Trip Generated Withi -T IIndicate Ti-meT Period*1150%0%0%0%2 15 0% 2% 0% 1%3 15 1% 5% 0% 3%4 15 2% 5% 1% 4%5 15 3% 4% 3% 3%6 15 4% 2% 3% 3%7 15 60% 76% 3% 2%8 15 11% 3% 55% 73%9 15 8% 2% 11% 4%10 15 5% 1% 8% 3%11 30 5% 0% 10% 3%12 30 1% 0% 4% 1%13 30 0% 0% 1% 0%14 60 0% 0% 1% 0%15 600 0% 0% 0% 0%*Trip Generation for Employees and Transients (see Table 5-9) is the same for Un-staged and Staged Evacuation.
Quad Cities Generating StationEvacuation Time Estimate5-21KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 0}}

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