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Kld TR-506, Rev. 1, Harris Nuclear Plant Development of Evacuation Time Estimates
	ML123630578
Person / Time
Site:	Harris
Issue date:	12/13/2012
From:	; KLD Engineering, PC
To:	; Carolina Power & Light Co, Duke Energy Carolinas, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
	HNP-12-139 KLD TR-506, Rev 1
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December2012FinalReport,Rev.1KLDTR-506 HarrisNuclearPlantDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesWorkperformedforDukeEnergy,by:KLDEngineering,P.C.43CorporateDriveHauppauge,NY11788mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com SIGNATURE LIST ________ __J/ l d.-)3 Duke Energy Date Project Lead, Eme r gency Pr epa r edness A !f-JrJI-' A _-------__ __,/ 12-. I 2. l tl-K LD Enginee ring , P.C.-Sento r Project Manager Harr is Nucl ea r Pl ant Eva cua tion Ti me Es timat e tz./zlc?-Date KLD Eng i neering, P.C. Rev. 1 HarrisNuclearPlantiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableofContents1INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................1 11.1OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................1 21.2TheHarrisNuclearPlantLocation..............................................................................................1 41.3PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................1 61.4ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy............................................................................................1 102STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................2 12.1DataEstimates...........................................................................................................................2 12.2StudyMethodologicalAssumptions..........................................................................................2 22.3StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................2 53DEMANDESTIMATION.......................................................................................................................3 13.1PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................3 23.2ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................3 73 93.3TransientPopulation................................................................................................................3 103.4Employees...............................................................................................................................

.3 153.5MedicalFacilities......................................................................................................................3 193.6TotalDemandinAddi tiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................3 193.7SpecialEvent............................................................................................................................3 193.8SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................3 224ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................4 14.1CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................4 24.2CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................4 44.3ApplicationtotheHNPStudyArea............................................................................................4 64.3.1Two LaneRoads.................................................................................................................4 64.3.2Multi LaneHighway...........................................................................................................4 64.3.3Freeways............................................................................................................................4 74.3.4Intersections......................................................................................................................4 84.4SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................4 85ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................5 15.1Background...............................................................................................................................

.5 15.2FundamentalConsiderations.....................................................................................................5 35.3EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................5 65.4CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................5 115.4.1StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................5 125.4.2StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................5 155.4.3TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreas.................................................5 166DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................6 17GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................7 17.1VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................7 17.2StagedEvacuation......................................................................................................................7 1 HarrisNuclearPlantiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.3PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................7 27.4EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................7 47.5EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................7 47.6StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................7 67.7GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................7 78TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................8 18.1TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate............................................................................8 28.2SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................8 48.3MedicalFacilityDemand............................................................................................................8 48.4EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople.......................................................8 58.5SpecialNeedsPopulation.........................................................................................................8 119TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................9 110EVACUAT IONROUTES..................................................................................................................10 1ListofAppendicesA.GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A 1B.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B 1C.DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C 1C.1Methodology..............................................................................................................................C 5C.1.1TheFundamentalDiagram.................................................................................................C 5C.1.2TheSimulationModel........................................................................................................C 5C.1.3LaneAssignment..............................................................................................................C 13C.2Implementation.......................................................................................................................C 13C.2.1ComputationalProcedure................................................................................................C 13C.2.2InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)...................................................C 16D.DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D 1E.FACILITYDATA....................................................................................................................................E 1F.TELEPHONESURVEY...........................................................................................................................F 1F.1Introduction...............................................................................................................................F 1F.2SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F 2F.3SurveyResults............................................................................................................................F 3F.3.1HouseholdDemographicResults...........................................................................................F 3F.3.2EvacuationResponse.............................................................................................................F 8F.3.3TimeDistributionResults.....................................................................................................F 10F.4Conclusions..............................................................................................................................F 12G.TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G 1G.1TrafficControlPoints................................................................................................................G 1G.2Securi tyRoadBlocks.................................................................................................................G 2HEVACUATIONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H 1 HarrisNuclearPlantiiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1J.REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J 1K.EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K 1L.SUB ZONEBOUNDARIES....................................................................................................................L 1M.EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.............................................................................................M 1M.1EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M 1M.2EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M 2M.3EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M 3M.4Effectof50%ReductioninCapacityandFreeFlowSpeedforIceScenarios..........................M 5M.5EffectofAdditionalConstructionEmployeesatPeakConstructionYearof2022..................M 5N.ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N 1Note:AppendixIintentio nallyskipped HarrisNuclearPlantivKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofFiguresFigure1 1.HNPLocation...........................................................................................................................1 5Figure1 2.HNPLink NodeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................1 8Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................2 4Figure3 1.HNPEPZ..................................................................................................................................3 3Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................3 5Figure3 3.PermanentRe sidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................3 6Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector.................................................................................................3 8Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector.....................................................................................................3 9Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................3 13Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................3 14Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySe ctor............................................................................................3 17Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................3 18Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams..........................................................................................................4 10Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................5 5Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................5 10Figure5 3.ComparisonofDa taDistributionandNormalDistribution.......................................................5 13Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................5 19Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUn stagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion...................................................................................................................................5 21Figure6 1.HNPEPZSubZones.................................................................................................................6 7Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................7 17Figure7 2.HNPShadowRegion.............................................................................................................7 18Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate....................................7 19Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate............................................7 20Figure7 5.CongestionPa tternsat1Hour30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.........................7 21Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat2Hours30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.......................7 22Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat3Hours25MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.......................7 23Figure7 8.CongestionPatternsat4HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................7 24Figure7 9.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03......................................................7 25Figure7 10.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03....................................................7 25Figure7 11.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 12.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03....................................................7 26Figure7 13.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03....................................................7 27Figure7 14.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR03....................................................7 27Figure7 15.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03....................................................7 28Figure7 16.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03....................................................7 28Figure7 17.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03....................................................7 29Figure7 18.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03..................................................7 29Figure7 19.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03..................................................7 30Figure7 20.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03..................................................7 30Figure7 21.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03..................................................7 31Figure7 22.EvacuationTi meEstimatesScenario14forRegionR03..................................................7 31Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................8 13Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes.............................................................................................8 14Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationReceptionCentersandRelocationSchools........................................10 2 HarrisNuclearPlantvKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.EvacuationRoutes..............................................................................................................10 3FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulation DTRADInterface........................................................................B 5FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C 4FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C 6FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0..............................................................................C 7FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3)....................................................C 15FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D 5FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................................E 14FigureE 2.OverviewofChildCareCenterswithintheEPZ....................................................................E 15FigureE 3.ChildCareCenterswithinSub ZoneE..................................................................................E 16FigureE 4.ChildCareCenterswithinSub ZonesFandG.......................................................................E 17FigureE 5.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E 18FigureE 6.OverviewofMajorEmployerswithintheEPZ......................................................................E 19FigureE 7.MajorEmployerswithinSub ZoneE.....................................................................................E 20FigureE 8.MajorEmployerswithinSub ZonesFandG.........................................................................E 21FigureE 9.CampgroundswithintheEPZ................................................................................................E 22FigureE 10.OverviewofParksandCommunityCenterswithintheEPZ...............................................E 23FigureE 11.ParksandCommunityCenterswithinSub ZoneE.............................................................E 24FigureE 12.ParksandCommunityCenterswithinSub ZonesFandG..................................................E 25FigureE 13.GolfCourseswithintheEPZ................................................................................................E 26FigureE 14.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ.........................................................................................E 27FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F 4FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F 4FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F 5FigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds....................................................................F 5FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference.........................................................................................F 6FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F 7FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F 8FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation...............................................................................F 9FigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets...........................................................................................F 9FigureF 10.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School..............................................................F 11FigureF 11.WorktoHomeTravelTime.................................................................................................F 11FigureF 12.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F 12FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlocksfortheHNPSite.........................................G 3FigureG 2.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlockswithinSub ZoneE.....................................G 4FigureG 3.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlockswithinSub ZonesEandF..........................G 5FigureG 4.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlockswithinSub ZoneG.....................................G 6FigureG 5.RevisedTrafficControlPoint-StateHighway55&HighHouseRd......................................G 7FigureG 6.RevisedTrafficControlPoint-StateHighway55&WilbonRd............................................G 8FigureG 7.RevisedTrafficControlPoint-StateHi ghway55&USHighway64(West)Ramps..............G 9FigureG 8.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1415&HWY401...............................G 10FigureG 9.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1427&HWY401...............................G 11FigureG 10.Existin gTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1443&HWY401.............................G 12FigureG 11.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1403&HWY401.............................G 13FigureG 12.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1403&HWY210.............................G 14FigureG 13.Existin gTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1403&SR1513...............................G 15FigureG 14.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-HWY210&HWY401&HWY421.......G 16 HarrisNuclearPlantviKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 15.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1412&HWY401.............................G 17FigureG 16.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1431&SR1412...............................G 18FigureG 17.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-2529HarnettCentralRd......................G 19FigureG 18.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-NC 540TOLL&GreenLevelWestRd............................G 20FigureG 19.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-USHWY64&KellyRd...................................................G 21FigureG 20.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-NC55&NC 540TOLL....................................................G 22FigureG 21.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-NC 540TOLL&OldUSHWY1.......................................G 23FigureG 22.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-USHWY64&NC540TOLL............................................G 24FigureG 23.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-NC55BYPASS&NC 540TOLL.......................................G 25FigureG 24.ProposedSecurityRoadBlock-NC55&NC 540TOLL.....................................................G 26FigureH 1.RegionR01.............................................................................................................................H 4FigureH 2.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H 5FigureH 3.RegionR03.............................................................................................................................H 6FigureH 4.RegionR04.............................................................................................................................H 7FigureH 5.RegionR05.............................................................................................................................H 8FigureH 6.RegionR06.............................................................................................................................H 9FigureH 7.RegionR07...........................................................................................................................H 10FigureH 8.RegionR08...........................................................................................................................H 11FigureH 9.RegionR09...........................................................................................................................H 12FigureH 10.RegionR10.........................................................................................................................H 13FigureH 11.RegionR11.........................................................................................................................H 14FigureH 12.RegionR12.........................................................................................................................H 15FigureH 13.RegionR13.........................................................................................................................H 16FigureH 14.RegionR14.........................................................................................................................H 17FigureH 15.RegionR15.........................................................................................................................H 18FigureH 16.RegionR16.........................................................................................................................H 19FigureH 17.RegionR17.........................................................................................................................H 20FigureH 18.RegionR18.........................................................................................................................H 21FigureH 19.RegionR19.........................................................................................................................H 22FigureH 20.RegionR20.........................................................................................................................H 23FigureH 21.RegionR21.........................................................................................................................H 24FigureH 22.RegionR22.........................................................................................................................H 25FigureH 23.RegionR23.........................................................................................................................H 26FigureH 24.RegionR24.........................................................................................................................H 27FigureH 25.RegionR25.........................................................................................................................H 28FigureH 26.RegionR26.........................................................................................................................H 29FigureH 27.RegionR27.........................................................................................................................H 30FigureH 28.RegionR28.........................................................................................................................H 31FigureH 29.RegionR29.........................................................................................................................H 32FigureH 30.RegionR30.........................................................................................................................H 33FigureH 31.RegionR31.........................................................................................................................H 34FigureH 32.RegionR32.........................................................................................................................H 35FigureH 33.RegionR33.........................................................................................................................H 36FigureH 34.RegionR34.........................................................................................................................H 37FigureH 35.RegionR35.........................................................................................................................H 38FigureH 36.RegionR36.........................................................................................................................H 39FigureJ 1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J 9 HarrisNuclearPlantviiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureJ 2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)...............................J 9FigureJ 3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)............J 10FigureJ 4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)............................J 10FigureJ 5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5).............................................................................................................................................J 11FigureJ 6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)..............J 11FigureJ 7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)...............................J 12FigureJ 8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Ice(Scenario8)..................................J 12FigureJ 9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)..............J 13FigureJ 10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)...........................J 13FigureJ 11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,We ekend,Midday,Ice(Scenario11).............................J 14FigureJ 12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12)...........................................................................................................................................J 14FigureJ 13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)............................................................................................................................................J 15FigureJ 14.ETEandTripGeneration:Su mmer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)............................................................................................................................................J 15FigureK 1.HarrisLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork........................................................................................K 2FigureK 2.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1.....................................................................................K 3FigureK 3.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Gri d2.....................................................................................K 4FigureK 4.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3.....................................................................................K 5FigureK 5.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4.....................................................................................K 6FigureK 6.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5.....................................................................................K 7FigureK 7.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6.....................................................................................K 8FigureK 8.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7.....................................................................................K 9FigureK 9.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8...................................................................................K 10FigureK 10.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9.................................................................................K 11FigureK 11.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10...............................................................................K 12FigureK 12.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11...............................................................................K 13FigureK 13.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12...............................................................................K 14FigureK 14.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13...............................................................................K 15FigureK 15.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14...............................................................................K 16FigureK 16.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15...............................................................................K 17FigureK 17.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16...............................................................................K 18FigureK 18.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17...............................................................................K 19FigureK 19.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18...............................................................................K 20FigureK 20.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19...............................................................................K 21FigureK 21.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20...............................................................................K 22FigureK 22.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21...............................................................................K 23FigureK 23.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22...............................................................................K 24FigureK 24.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23...............................................................................K 25FigureK 25.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24...............................................................................K 26FigureK 26.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25...............................................................................K 27FigureK 27.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26...............................................................................K 28FigureK 28.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27...............................................................................K 29FigureK 29.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28...............................................................................K 30FigureK 30.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29...............................................................................K 31 HarrisNuclearPlantviiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureK 31.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30...............................................................................K 32FigureK 32.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31...............................................................................K 33FigureK 33.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32...............................................................................K 34FigureK 34.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid33...............................................................................K 35FigureK 35.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid34...............................................................................K 36FigureK 36.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid35...............................................................................K 37FigureK 37.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid36...............................................................................K 38FigureK 38.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid37...............................................................................K 39FigureK 39.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid38...............................................................................K 40FigureK 40.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid39...............................................................................K 41FigureK 41.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid40...............................................................................K 42FigureK 42.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid41...............................................................................K 43FigureK 43.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid42...............................................................................K 44FigureK 44.Link NodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid43...............................................................................K 45 HarrisNuclearPlantixKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ListofTablesTable1 1.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................1 1Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................1 6Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisons..........................................................................................................1 11Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................2 3Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................2 7Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................3 4Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbySubZone....................................................3 4Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................3 7Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................3 12Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles......................................3 16Table3 6.HNPEPZExternalTraffic.........................................................................................................3 21Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemand...........................................................................................3 23Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemand.................................................................................................3 24Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities................................................................................5 3Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................5 6Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................5 7Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................5 8Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.......................................................5 9Table5 6.MappingDistri butionstoEvents............................................................................................5 11Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................5 11Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUn stagedEvacuation....................5 18Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.........................5 20Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRe gions...........................................................................................6 6Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................6 8Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................6 9Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario................................................................................................6 10Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.........................7 10Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.......................7 12Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion............................7 14Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................7 15Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................7 16Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates..............................................................................8 15Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates...................................................................................8 16Table8 3.RelocationSchoolsforSchoolsandChildCareCenters.........................................................8 18Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemand............................................................................................8 20Table8 5.Su mmaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................8 22Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................8 24Table8 7.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather..........................8 28Table8 8.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain..........................................8 31Table8 9.SchoolandChil dCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesIce.............................................8 34Table8 10.SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutes........................................................................8 37Table8 11.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather........................................8 38Table8 12.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain.........................................................8 40Table8 13.Tran sitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesIce...........................................................8 42Table8 14.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeather.............................................8 44 HarrisNuclearPlantxKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 15.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain..............................................................8 46Table8 16.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesIce.................................................................8 48Table8 17.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates....................................8 50TableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A 1TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C 2TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C 3TableC 3.Glossary....................................................................................................................................C 8TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ.............................................................................................................E 2TableE 2.ChildCareCenterswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 3TableE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 5TableE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E 7TableE 5.CampgroundswithintheEPZ.................................................................................................E 10TableE 6.ParksandCommunityCenterswithintheEPZ.......................................................................E 11TableE 7.GolfCourseswithinth eEPZ...................................................................................................E 13TableE 8.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E 13TableF 1.HarrisTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan...................................................................................F 2TableH 1.PercentofSub ZonePopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion................................................H 2TableJ 1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHi ghestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J 2TableJ 2.SampleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J 4TableJ 3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)...........................J 5TableJ 4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)forMajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)...........................................................................................................................J 6TableJ 5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1.........................J 7TableK 1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K 46TableK 2.NodesintheLink NodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled.........................................K 148TableM 1.EvacuationTi meEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M 1TableM 2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M 2TableM 3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M 4TableM 4.ETEVariationfor50%IceReduction-Scenario8................................................................M 5TableM 5.ETEVariationfor50%IceReduction-Scenario11..............................................................M 5TableM 6.ETEforPeakConstructionYear2022...................................................................................M 6TableN 1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N 1

HarrisNuclearPlantES 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

ThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheHarrisNuclearPlant(HNP)locatedinWakeCounty,NorthCarolina.ETEprovideDukeEnergyandStateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare: CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,December2011. CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG 0654/FE MA REP 1,Rev.1,November1980. DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005. EmergencyPlanningandPreparednessforProductionandUtilizationFacilities,10CFR50,AppendixE.OverviewofProjectActivitiesThisprojectbeganinMarch,2012andextendedoveraperiodof9months.Themajoractivitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence: Attended"kick off"meetingwithDukeEnergypersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateandcountygovernments. AccessedU.S.CensusBureaudatafilesfortheyear2010. StudiedGeographicalInformationSystems(GIS)mapsoftheareainthevicinityoftheHNP,thenconductedadetailedfieldsurveyofth ehighwaynetwork. SynthesizedthisinformationtocreateananalysisnetworkrepresentingthehighwaysystemtopologyandcapacitieswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ),plusaShadowRegioncoveringtheregionbetweenth eEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant. DesignedandsponsoredatelephonesurveyofresidentswithintheEPZtogatherfocuseddataneededforthisETEstudythatwerenotcontainedwithinthecensusdatabase.Thesurveyinstrumentwasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsiteresponseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey. AdataneedsmatrixwasprovidedtotheOROsatthekickoffmeeting.TheOROsprovidedallavailabledatapertainingtoemployment,transients,andsp ecialfacilitiesintheEPZ.

HarrisNuclearPlantES 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Thetrafficdemandandtrip generationratesofevacuatingvehicleswereestimatedfromthegathereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilizationtime(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computedusingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Followingfederalguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto14Sub Zones.TheseSubZonesarethengroupedwithincircularareasor"keyhole"configurations(circlesplusradialsectors)thatdefineatotalof36EvacuationRegions. Thetime varyingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,eachdescribedintermsofthefollowingfactors:(1)Season(Summer,Winter);(2)DayofWeek(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,Rain,Ice).OnespecialeventscenarioforFourthofJulyonJordanLakewasconsidered.OneroadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasinglelanewasclosedonUS 1northbound(fromNewHillHollemanRdtoI 40)andUS 64eastbound(fromNC 751toI 40)fo rthedurationoftheevacuation. Stagedevacuationwasconsideredforthoseregionswhereinthe2mileradiusandsectorsdownwindto5milesareevacuated. AsperNUREG/CR 7002,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis: Arapidlyes calatingaccidentattheHNPthatquicklyassumesthestatusofarapidlyescalatingeventattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplementedsuchthattheAdvisorytoEvacuateisvirtuallycoincidentwiththesirenalert,an dnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented. Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measuredastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthestatedpercentageofthepopulationexitstheimpactedRegion,thatrepresent"upperbound"estimates.ThisconservativePlanningBasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents. Iftheemergencyoccurswhileschoolsareinsession,theETEstudyassumesthatthechildrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytoreceptioncentersorhostschoolslocatedoutsidetheEPZ.Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtono tpickuptheirchildrenatschoolpriortothearrivalofthebusesdispatchedforthatpurpose.TheETEforschoolchildrenarecalculatedseparately. Evacueeswhodonothaveaccesstoaprivatevehiclewilleitherride sharewithrelatives,friendsorneighbors,orbeevacuatedbybusesprovidedasspecifiedinthecountyevac uationplans.Thoseinspecialfacilitieswilllikewisebeevacuatedwithpublictransit,asneeded:bus,minivan,passengercar,wheelchairtransportorambulance,asrequired.SeparateETEarecalculatedforthetransit dependentevacuees,forhomeboundspecialneedspopulation,andforthoseevacuatedfr omspecialfacilities.

HarrisNuclearPlantES 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 Attended"final"meetingwithDukeEnergypersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateandcountygovernmentstopresentresultsfromthestudy.ComputationofETEAtotalof504ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifiestheaggregateevacuationtimeestimatedforthepopulationwithinoneofthe36EvacuationRegionstoevacuatefromthatRegion,underthecircumstancesdefinedforoneofthe14EvacuationScenarios(36x14=504).Sepa rateETEarecalculatedfortransit dependentevacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeoplewithintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlytothosepeopleoccupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthepeoplewithintheimpactedregionwillevacuateinresponsetothisAdvisory.ThepeopleoccupyingtheremainderoftheEPZoutsidetheimpactedregionmaybeadvisedtotakeshelter.ThecomputationofETEassumesthat20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZbutoutsidetheimpactedregion,willel ectto"voluntarily"evacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationintheShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewhoareevacuatingfromwithintheimpactedregion.TheimpedancethatcouldbecausedbyvoluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfo rtheimpactedregion.Stagedevacuationisconsideredwhereinthosepeoplewithinthe2 mileregionevacuateimmediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelter in place.Once90%ofthe2 mileregionisevacuated,thosepeoplebeyond2milesbegintoevacuate.Asperfederalguidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillev acuateeventhoughtheyareadvisedtoshelter in place.Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows: Alink noderepresentationofthehighwaynetworkiscoded.Eachlinkrepresentsaunidirectionallengthofhighway;ea chnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormergepoint.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsandonestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures. Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalled"zonalcentroids"locatedwithintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thetripgenerationratesvaryovertimereflectingthemobilizationprocess,andfromonelocation(centroid)toanotherdependingonpopulationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea. Theevacuationmodelcomputestheroutingpatternsforevacuatingvehiclesthatarecompliantwithfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),th ensimulatethetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocessestimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofthepopulationwithintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.These HarrisNuclearPlantES 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1statisticsarepresentedintabularandgraphicalformats.The90 thpercentileETEhavebeenidentifiedasthevaluesthatshouldbeconsideredwhenmakingprotectiveactiondecisionsbecausethe100 thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelongertomobilize.Thisisreferredtoasthe"evacuationtail"inSection4.0ofNUREG/CR 7002.TrafficManagementThisstudyreferencesthecomprehensiveexistingtrafficmanagementplansprovidedbyChatham,Harnett,LeeandWakeCounties.SeveraladditionaltrafficcontrolpointsaresuggestedinAppendixGtofacilitatetrafficflowtothenewlyconstructedNC 540Tollhighway.Theseadditionaltrafficcontrolmeasureshavebeenreviewedandapprovedbytheemergencymanagementagencies.SelectedResultsAcompilationofselectedinformationispresentedonthefollowingpagesintheformoffiguresandtablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow. Figure6displaysamapoftheHNPEPZshowingthelayoutofthe14Sub Zonesthatcomprise,inaggregate,theEPZ. Table3pr esentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpopulationineachSub Zonebasedonthe2010Censusdata. Table6 1defineseachofthe36EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroupsofSubZones. Table6 2liststheEvacuationScenarios. Tables7 1and7 2arecompilationsofETEforthegeneralpopulation.Thesedataarethetimesneededtocleartheindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopul ationoccupyingtheseregions,respectively.ThesecomputedETEincludeconsiderationofmobilizationtimeandofestimatedvoluntaryevacuationsfromotherre gionswithintheEPZandfromtheShadowRegion. Tables7 3and7 4presentETEforthe2 mileregionforun stagedandstagedevacuationsforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles,respectively. Table8 7presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather. Table8 11presentsETEforthetransit dependentpopulationingoodweather. FigureH 8presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR08)tobeevacuatedunderthecircumstancesdefinedinTable6 1.Mapsofal lregionsareprovidedinAppendixH.Conclusions GeneralpopulationETEwerecomputedfor504uniquecases.Table7 1andTable7 2documenttheseETEforthe90 thand100 thpercentiles.TheseETErangefrom1:00(hr:min)to3:40atthe90 thpercentile. InspectionofTable7 1andTable7 2indicatesthattheETEforthe100 thpercentilearesignificantlylongerthanthoseforthe90 thpercentile.ThisistheresultofthecongestionwithintheEPZ.Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatrates HarrisNuclearPlantES 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1somewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.SeeFigures7 9through7 22. InspectionofTable7 3andTable7 4indicatesthatastagedevacuat ionprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregionandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationofthosebeyond2miles(compareRegionsR02andR04throughR12withRegionsR27throughR36,respectively,inTable7 1).SeeSection7.6fo radditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios5(summer,midweek/weekend,evening)and13(summer,weekend,evening)inTable7 2indicatesthatthespecialeventdoesnotmateriallyaffecttheETE.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonUS 1andonelaneeastboundonUS 64-doesnothaveamaterialimpacton90 thpercentileETE.Bothroadwaysareoperatingbelowcapacitythroughoutthedurationoftheevacuation,withtheexceptionofsomesignalizedintersectionsalongUS 64experiencingLOSF.Availablecapacityonothermajorevacuationroutes,mostnotablyNC 540TollandNC 55northboundalleviatesanynotablenegativeimpactcausedbyclosingonelan eonbothUS 1andUS 64.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion. ThepopulationcentersofApex,HollySpringsandFuquay Varinaarethemostcongestedareasthroughouttheevacuation.ThelastlocationintheEPZtoexhibittrafficcongestionisFuquay Varina;thisistheresultoftwomajorevacuationroutes,NC 55andUS 401comingtogetherinthecitycent erofFuquay VarinaasevacueesmaketheirwayoutoftheEPZ.AllcongestionwithintheEPZclearsby3hoursand30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.SeeSection7.3andFigures7 3through7 8. Separat eETEwerecomputedforschoolsandchildcarecenters,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpersonsandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.Theaveragesingle waveETEforhomeboundspecialneedspersonsarecomparabletothegenerationpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentile;averagesingle waveETEformedicalfacilitiesandschoolsandchildcarecentersarelessthanthe90 thpercentileforthegeneralpopulation;and,averagesingle waveETEfortransitdependentpersonsaregreaterthanthe90 thpercentileforthegeneralpopulation.SeeSection8. Table8 5indicatesthatthereareenoughbus,wheelchairtransport,passengercarandambulanceresourcesavailabletoevacuateeveryoneinasinglewave;however,therearenotenoughminivanstoevacuatemedicalfacilitiesinasinglewave.Therearesurplusbusesandpassengercarsavailabletosupplementtheshortageinminivanssuchthatallpeoplecanevac uateinasinglewave.SeeSections8.4and8.5. ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe90 thpercentileisinsensitivetoreductionsinthebasetripgenerationtimeof41/2hoursduetothetrafficcongestionwithintheEPZ.SeeTableM 1. ThegeneralpopulationETEisrelativelyinsensitivetothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesintheShadowRegion(triplingtheshadowevacuationpercentageonly HarrisNuclearPlantES 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1increases90 thpercentileETEby5minutes).100%shadowevacuationincreasestheETEby20minutesforthe90 thpercentile.SeeTableM 2. Anincreaseinpermanentresidentpopulation(EPZplusShadowRegion)of14%ormoreresultsinETEchangeswhichmeetthecriterionforupdatingETEbetweendecennialCensuses.SeeSectionM.3. Asevereicestormresultingina50%reductioninlinkcapacityandfreeflowspeedincreasesETEforthe2 Mileand5 MileRegionsbyatmost5minutes;however,increasesthe90 thpercentilefortheentireEPZbyupto1hourand25minutesandupto2hoursand35minutesatthe100 thpercentileETE.SeeSectionM 4 Projectingthestudyarea(EPZplusShadowRegion)permanentresidentpopulationtothepeakconstructionyearof2022forthenewplantsiteincreasesthe90 thpercentileETEby5minutesforthe2 mileregionand5 mileregionand25minutesforthefullEPZ.Addingthe3,271constructionworkervehiclesfurtherincreasesthe90 thpercentileETEby1hourand40minutesforthe2 mileregion,55minutesforthe5 mileregionand5minutesforthefullEPZ.SeeSectionM 5.

HarrisNuclearPlantES 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.HNPEPZSubZones HarrisNuclearPlantES 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationSub Zone2000Population2007Population(Estimated) 12010PopulationA143180134B1,2341,3971,257C3314162,086D258319346E26,08232,87945,269F10,76413,53422,342G12,86415,49721,463H2,9063,4443,868I804947963J1,1451,3481,126K619763688L708874815M1,4401,7781,753N584721851TOTAL59,88274,097102,961EPZPopulationGrowth(2000 2010):71.9%EPZPopulationGrowth(2007 2010):39.0%1Rev.42007COLAETE2000Censusextrapolatedto2007basedonaverageannualcountygrowthratesfrom20052007 HarrisNuclearPlantES 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR012 MileRadius2 MileRadiusxR025 MileRadius5 MileRadiusxxxxxxR03FullEPZ10 MileRadiusxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR04NNW,N327°010°xxxR05NNE,NE011°056°xxR06ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR07SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR08SSW192°214°xxR09SW,WSW215°259°xxxR10260°281°xxR11W,WNW282°304°xxxR12NW305°326°xxEvacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR13N348°034°xxxxxxxxR14NNExxxxxxxxxR15NExxxxxxxxR16ENE035°079°xxxxxxxxxR17E,ESE080°101°xxxxxxxxR18102°124°xxxxxxxR19SE125°146°xxxxxxxxR20SSE147°191°xxxxxxxxxR21S,SSWxxxxxxxxR22192°236°xxxxxxxR23SW237°259°xxxxxxxxR24WSW,WxxxxxxxxxR25WNW260°326°xxxxxxxxxR26NW,NNW327°347°xxxxxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR275 MileRadiusxxxxxxR28NNW,N327°010°xxxR29NNE,NE011°056°xxR30ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR31SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR32SSW192°214°xxR33SW,WSW215°259°xxxR34260°281°xxR35W,WNW282°304°xxxR36NW305°326°xxShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateSub Zone(s)Shelter in PlaceSub Zone(s)Evacuate HarrisNuclearPlantES 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 2DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodFourthofJulyonJordanLake14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosuresonUS 1andUS 642Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.

HarrisNuclearPlantES 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R021:451:451:301:301:451:501:501:501:351:351:351:551:401:45R032:503:002:402:502:402:503:003:102:402:503:052:402:402:552 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR041:351:351:301:301:451:401:401:401:351:351:351:551:451:35R051:301:301:301:301:451:301:351:351:351:351:351:501:451:30R061:201:201:151:151:301:201:201:201:151:151:151:401:251:20R071:301:301:201:201:351:301:301:301:201:201:201:401:301:30R081:451:451:351:351:451:451:451:451:351:351:351:501:451:45R092:002:001:451:451:552:052:052:051:501:501:502:001:552:00R101:501:501:401:401:501:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:501:50R111:551:551:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:55R121:201:201:151:151:251:201:201:201:151:151:151:301:251:205 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR132:002:001:401:401:552:002:002:001:451:451:452:001:452:00R142:002:001:401:401:552:052:052:051:451:451:452:001:502:00R151:551:551:351:351:501:551:551:551:401:401:402:001:451:55R161:551:551:351:351:502:002:002:001:451:451:452:001:401:55R171:501:501:351:351:502:002:002:001:401:401:402:001:401:50R181:501:501:301:301:451:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:401:50R191:501:501:351:351:451:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:401:50R202:252:302:202:252:202:302:352:452:202:252:302:202:202:30R212:252:352:202:252:202:302:352:402:252:252:302:202:202:30R222:252:352:202:252:202:302:352:402:252:252:302:202:202:30R232:352:402:302:352:302:352:402:502:302:352:402:302:302:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR242:402:552:352:452:352:452:553:052:352:452:552:352:352:50R252:553:152:503:052:453:003:153:302:503:003:202:452:503:00R263:003:202:553:152:503:053:203:402:553:103:302:502:553:00StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR271:451:451:301:301:451:501:501:501:351:351:351:551:401:45R281:351:351:301:301:451:401:401:401:351:351:351:551:451:35R291:301:301:301:301:451:351:351:351:351:351:351:501:451:30R301:201:201:201:201:301:251:251:251:201:201:201:401:251:20R311:301:301:201:201:351:301:301:301:201:201:201:401:301:30R321:451:451:351:351:451:451:451:451:351:351:351:501:451:45R332:002:001:451:451:552:052:052:051:501:501:502:001:552:00R341:501:501:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:50R351:551:551:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:55R361:201:201:151:151:251:201:201:201:201:201:201:301:251:20 HarrisNuclearPlantES 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend MidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend Weekend MidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R024:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R034:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:402 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R054:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R064:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R074:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R084:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R094:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R104:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R114:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R124:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:355 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR134:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R144:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R154:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R164:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R174:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R184:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R194:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R204:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R214:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R224:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R234:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend MidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend Weekend MidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR244:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R254:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R264:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR274:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R284:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R294:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R304:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R314:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R324:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R334:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R344:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R364:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35

HarrisNuclearPlantES 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR011:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R021:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR041:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R051:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R061:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R071:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R081:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R091:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R101:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R111:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R121:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR271:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R281:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R291:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R301:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R311:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R321:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R331:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R341:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R351:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R361:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05 HarrisNuclearPlantES 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R024:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR044:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R054:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R064:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R074:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R084:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R094:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R104:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R114:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R124:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR274:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R284:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R294:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R314:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R324:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R334:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R344:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R354:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R364:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30 HarrisNuclearPlantES 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool90154.745.071:558.4122:10HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 190150.00.001:453.961:55LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 190150.00.001:458.8122:00WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool90153.041.251:5017.3242:15ApexElementarySchool90153.345.051:5014.7202:10ApexMiddleSchool90152.945.041:5017.1232:15ApexSeniorHighSchool90150.84.2122:0015.9222:25LufkinRoadMiddleSchool90151.245.021:5017.1232:15OliveChapelElementarySchool90153.38.0252:1017.4242:35St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool90154.940.581:5510.6152:10ThalesAcademy90152.936.351:5014.7202:10HollyGroveElementarySchool90158.330.7172:0513.5192:25HollyGroveMiddleSchool90158.230.7172:0524.9342:40HollyRidgeElementarySchool90153.211.4172:0524.7332:40HollyRidgeMiddleSchool90153.211.4172:0524.7332:40HollySpringsElementarySchool90153.77.7302:1524.7332:50HollySpringsHighSchool90158.730.7172:0513.5192:25NewSchool,Inc.Montessori90152.721.781:5513.4182:15Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool90150.93.9142:0028.4382:40Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool90153.335.361:5527.0372:35LincolnHeightsElementarySchool90151.73.6292:1528.4382:55SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool90153.13.2582:4512.8183:05 HarrisNuclearPlantES 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids90151.545.031:5016.1222:15ApexBaptistChurchPreschool90152.718.491:5514.7202:15ApexChildCarewithDebbie90153.036.351:5014.7202:10ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool90152.718.491:5514.7202:15EarthAngel'sDayCareHome90151.839.131:5016.1222:15EdithFranklinDayCareHome90152.718.491:5514.7202:15GoddardSchoolApex90152.718.491:5514.7202:15GraceChurchPreschool90151.545.031:5016.1222:15GrowingYearsLearningCenter90152.718.491:5514.7202:15HopeChapelPreschool90151.411.381:5515.9222:20Judy'sHomeCare90150.84.2122:0015.9222:25Karin' 4 Kidz90154.426.2112:0014.7202:20Lori'sFamilyDayCare90151.042.821:5014.7202:10MoravicFamilyDayCare90151.042.821:5014.7202:10PlayCare90153.219.2112:0015.9222:25Vickie'sDayCareHome90152.718.491:5514.7202:15WoodhavenBaptistPre school90151.545.031:5016.1222:15HollySpringsLearningCenter90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare90158.330.7172:0513.5192:25KiddieAcademyofHollySprings90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25LittleDreamersPreschool90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20Sisters'ChildCareServices90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25StellaLowerySmallDayCare90151.521.651:5013.4182:10SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool90152.721.781:5513.4182:15 HarrisNuclearPlantES 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25AMother'sLove90152.94.0442:3012.8182:50ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina90151.13.1222:1013.0182:30Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare90150.83.9132:0013.0182:20Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith90150.83.9132:0013.0182:20GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown90151.13.1222:1013.0182:30LittleAngelsPreparatory90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00LittleMiracles90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00ReadyOrNotHereIGrow90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25ShiningStarChildCareHome90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00SouthWakePreschool&Academy90153.13.2582:4512.8183:05SpinningWheelsLearningCenter90151.439.031:5011.2152:05VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25MaximumforEPZ:2:45Maximum:3:05AverageforEPZ:2:05Average:2:25Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow HarrisNuclearPlantES 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool100204.741.072:108.4132:25HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 1100200.00.002:003.962:10LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 1100200.00.002:008.8132:15WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool100203.035.062:1017.3262:40ApexElementarySchool100203.341.052:0514.7222:30ApexMiddleSchool100202.941.052:0517.1262:35ApexSeniorHighSchool100200.85.1102:1015.9242:35LufkinRoadMiddleSchool100201.241.022:0517.1262:35OliveChapelElementarySchool100203.38.1252:2517.4262:55St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool100204.936.492:1010.6162:30ThalesAcademy100202.936.752:0514.7222:30HollyGroveElementarySchool100208.331.1162:2013.5202:40HollyGroveMiddleSchool100208.231.1162:2024.9373:00HollyRidgeElementarySchool100203.212.1162:2024.7373:00HollyRidgeMiddleSchool100203.212.1162:2024.7373:00HollySpringsElementarySchool100203.77.6302:3024.7373:10HollySpringsHighSchool100208.731.1172:2013.5202:40NewSchool,Inc.Montessori100202.727.072:1013.4202:30Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool100200.92.9182:2028.4423:05Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool100203.334.962:1027.0402:50LincolnHeightsElementarySchool100201.72.9362:4028.4423:25SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool100203.13.0613:0512.8193:25 HarrisNuclearPlantES 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids100201.541.032:0516.1242:30ApexBaptistChurchPreschool100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40ApexChildCarewithDebbie100203.036.752:0514.7222:30ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40EarthAngel'sDayCareHome100201.835.442:0516.1242:30EdithFranklinDayCareHome100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40GoddardSchoolApex100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40GraceChurchPreschool100201.541.032:0516.1242:30GrowingYearsLearningCenter100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40HopeChapelPreschool100201.44.9182:2015.9242:45Judy'sHomeCare100200.85.1102:1015.9242:35Karin' 4 Kidz100204.440.472:1014.7222:35Lori'sFamilyDayCare100201.036.522:0514.7222:30MoravicFamilyDayCare100201.036.522:0514.7222:30PlayCare100203.29.9202:2015.9242:45Vickie'sDayCareHome100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40WoodhavenBaptistPre school100201.541.032:0516.1242:30HollySpringsLearningCenter100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation100204.530.792:1013.5202:30HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare100208.331.1162:2013.5202:40KiddieAcademyofHollySprings100204.530.792:1013.5202:30Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45LittleDreamersPreschool100204.530.792:1013.5202:30Sisters'ChildCareServices100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45StellaLowerySmallDayCare100201.522.542:0513.4202:25SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100202.727.072:1013.4202:30 HarrisNuclearPlantES 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45AMother'sLove100202.94.4402:4012.8193:00ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina100201.12.4302:3013.0202:50Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare100200.82.9182:2013.0202:40Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith100200.82.9182:2013.0202:40GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown100201.12.4302:3013.0202:50LittleAngelsPreparatory100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20LittleMiracles100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20ReadyOrNotHereIGrow100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45ShiningStarChildCareHome100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20SouthWakePreschool&Academy100203.13.0613:0512.8193:25SpinningWheelsLearningCenter100201.435.832:0511.2172:25VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45MaximumforEPZ:3:05Maximum:3:25AverageforEPZ:2:20Average:2:45Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow

HarrisNuclearPlantES 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool110254.736.082:258.4142:40HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 1110250.00.002:153.972:25LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 1110250.00.002:158.8152:30WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool110253.031.762:2517.3292:55ApexElementarySchool110253.336.062:2514.7252:50ApexMiddleSchool110252.936.052:2017.1292:50ApexSeniorHighSchool110250.85.492:2515.9272:55LufkinRoadMiddleSchool110251.236.022:2017.1292:50OliveChapelElementarySchool110253.38.1252:4017.4293:10St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool110254.935.892:2510.6182:45ThalesAcademy110252.932.662:2514.7252:50HollyGroveElementarySchool110258.325.7202:3513.5233:00HollyGroveMiddleSchool110258.225.7202:3524.9423:20HollyRidgeElementarySchool110253.210.7182:3524.7423:20HollyRidgeMiddleSchool110253.210.7182:3524.7423:20HollySpringsElementarySchool110253.77.1322:5024.7423:35HollySpringsHighSchool110258.727.8192:3513.5233:00NewSchool,Inc.Montessori110252.719.992:2513.4232:50Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool110250.92.9182:3528.4483:25Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool110253.328.572:2527.0463:15LincolnHeightsElementarySchool110251.72.2473:0528.4483:55SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool110253.13.1593:1512.8223:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids110251.536.032:2016.1272:50ApexBaptistChurchPreschool110252.723.182:2514.7252:50ApexChildCarewithDebbie110253.032.562:2514.7252:50ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool110252.723.182:2514.7252:50EarthAngel'sDayCareHome110251.831.042:2016.1272:50EdithFranklinDayCareHome110252.723.182:2514.7252:50GoddardSchoolApex110252.723.182:2514.7252:50GraceChurchPreschool110251.536.032:2016.1272:50GrowingYearsLearningCenter110252.723.182:2514.7252:50HopeChapelPreschool110251.44.1212:4015.9273:10Judy'sHomeCare110250.85.492:2515.9272:55Karin' 4 Kidz110254.436.082:2514.7252:50Lori'sFamilyDayCare110251.033.522:2014.7252:45MoravicFamilyDayCare110251.033.522:2014.7252:45PlayCare110253.28.0252:4015.9273:10Vickie'sDayCareHome110252.723.182:2514.7252:50WoodhavenBaptistPre school110251.536.032:2016.1272:50HollySpringsLearningCenter110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare110258.325.7202:3513.5233:00KiddieAcademyofHollySprings110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00LittleDreamersPreschool110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50Sisters'ChildCareServices110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00StellaLowerySmallDayCare110251.518.452:2013.4232:45SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool110252.719.992:2513.4232:50 HarrisNuclearPlantES 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00AMother'sLove110252.94.0443:0012.8223:25ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina110251.12.6272:4513.0223:10Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare110250.82.9182:3513.0223:00Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith110250.82.9182:3513.0223:00GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown110251.12.6272:4513.0223:10LittleAngelsPreparatory110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45LittleMiracles110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45ReadyOrNotHereIGrow110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05ShiningStarChildCareHome110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45SouthWakePreschool&Academy110253.13.1593:1512.8223:40SpinningWheelsLearningCenter110251.431.932:2011.2192:40VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05MaximumforEPZ:3:20Maximum:3:55AverageforEPZ:2:35Average:3:05Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow HarrisNuclearPlantES 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 312020.245.027303:0010.01351067305:054 613520.245.027303:1510.01351067305:206 915020.245.027303:3010.01351067305:35411 312014.710.584303:5512.81751056305:554 613014.711.378304:0012.81751056306:006 914014.712.570304:0012.81751056306:009 1215014.713.963304:0512.81751056306:05421 312013.045.017302:506.5951044304:304 613013.045.017303:006.5951044304:406 914013.045.017303:106.5951044304:509 1115013.045.017303:206.5951044305:00431 512017.219.254303:2514.72051066305:406 1012517.221.847303:2514.72051066305:4011 1513017.222.546303:3014.72051066305:4516 2013517.223.544303:3014.72051066305:4521 2514017.226.539303:3014.72051066305:4526 2914517.227.737303:3514.72051066305:5030 3315017.230.534303:3514.72051066305:50441 412020.519.862303:3513.41851073305:555 712520.520.560303:3513.41851073305:558 1013020.521.358303:4013.41851073306:0011 1313520.524.151303:4013.41851073306:0014 1614020.525.349303:4013.41851073306:0017 1914520.526.746303:4513.41851073306:0520 2215020.527.844303:4513.41851073306:05 HarrisNuclearPlantES 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41208.35.787304:0013.71851043305:505 71308.36.182304:0513.71851043305:558 101358.36.379304:0513.71851043305:5511 131408.36.576304:1013.71851043306:0014 161458.36.873304:1013.71851043306:0017 191508.37.170304:1013.71851043306:0046112014.345.019302:5024.23251070305:20215014.345.019303:2024.23251070305:5047112017.335.929303:0018.82551071305:25213517.339.027303:1518.82551071305:40315017.338.927303:3018.82551071305:554811206.045.08302:4010.51451030304:104911209.945.013302:457.41051036304:2021509.945.013303:157.41051036304:50MaximumETE:4:10MaximumETE:6:05AverageETE:3:35AverageETE:5:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table812.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 313020.241.030403:2010.01551074405:454 614520.241.030403:3510.01551074406:006 916020.241.030403:5010.01551074406:15411 313014.79.593404:2512.81951062406:454 614014.710.287404:3012.81951062406:506 915014.711.080404:3512.81951062406:559 1216014.712.173404:3512.81951062406:55421 313013.041.019403:106.5951047405:054 614013.041.019403:206.5951047405:156 915013.041.019403:306.5951047405:259 1116013.041.019403:406.5951047405:35431 513017.219.553403:4514.72151071406:156 1013517.220.251403:5014.72151071406:2011 1514017.221.049403:5014.72151071406:2016 2014517.223.644403:5014.72151071406:2021 2515017.224.742403:5514.72151071406:2526 2915517.227.138403:5514.72151071406:2530 3316017.228.237404:0014.72151071406:30441 413020.518.666404:0013.42051080406:355 713520.519.364404:0013.42051080406:358 1014020.521.757404:0013.42051080406:3511 1314520.522.854404:0013.42051080406:3514 1615020.523.952404:0513.42051080406:4017 1915520.524.949404:0513.42051080406:4020 2216020.527.445404:0513.42051080406:40 HarrisNuclearPlantES 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41308.34.8105404:3513.72051047406:405 71408.35.099404:4013.72051047406:458 101458.35.296404:4513.72051047406:5011 131508.35.493404:4513.72051047406:5014 161558.35.590404:5013.72051047406:5517 191608.35.787404:5013.72051047406:5546113014.341.021403:1524.23551077406:05216014.341.021403:4524.23551077406:3547113017.330.134403:2518.82751078406:05214517.335.030403:3518.82751078406:15316017.335.329403:5018.82751078406:304811306.041.09403:0010.51551033404:454911309.940.815403:057.41151040404:5521609.941.014403:357.41151040405:25MaximumETE:4:50MaximumETE:6:55AverageETE:4:00AverageETE:6:20

HarrisNuclearPlantES 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 314020.236.034503:4510.01751084506:354 615520.236.034504:0010.01751084506:506 917020.236.034504:1510.01751084507:05411 314014.78.6102504:5512.82151070507:354 615014.79.395504:5512.82151070507:356 916014.711.180504:5012.82151070507:309 1217014.712.173504:5512.82151070507:35421 314013.036.022503:356.51151054505:454 615013.036.022503:456.51151054505:556 916013.036.022503:556.51151054506:059 1117013.036.022504:056.51151054506:15431 514017.217.659504:1014.72451081507:006 1014517.218.257504:1514.72451081507:0511 1515017.219.154504:1514.72451081507:0516 2015517.221.249504:1514.72451081507:0521 2516017.222.047504:2014.72451081507:1026 2916517.223.943504:2014.72451081507:1030 3317017.224.642504:2514.72451081507:15441 414020.516.475504:3013.42251090507:305 714520.516.973504:3013.42251090507:308 1015020.518.866504:3013.42251090507:3011 1315520.519.463504:3013.42251090507:3014 1616020.520.261504:3513.42251090507:3517 1916520.520.959504:3513.42251090507:3520 2217020.522.954504:3513.42251090507:35 HarrisNuclearPlantES 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41408.33.9128505:2013.72351054507:455 71508.34.1122505:2513.72351054507:508 101558.34.2120505:2513.72351054507:5011 131608.34.3117505:3013.72351054507:5514 161658.34.4114505:3013.72351054507:5517 191708.35.689505:1013.72351054507:3546114014.336.024503:3524.24051088506:50217014.336.024504:0524.24051088507:2047114017.324.443503:5518.83151089507:00215517.331.034504:0018.83151089507:05317017.332.032504:1518.83151089507:204811406.034.211503:2510.51751037505:254911409.935.917503:307.41251045505:3521709.936.017504:007.41251045506:05MaximumETE:5:30MaximumETE:7:55AverageETE:4:25AverageETE:7:05 HarrisNuclearPlantES 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureH 8.RegionR08 HarrisNuclearPlant1 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11 INTRODUCTIONThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheHarrisNuclearPlant(HNP),locatedinWakeCounty,NC.ETEprovidesDukeEnergyandstateandlocalgovernmentswithsite specificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecision making.Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:* CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR 7002,November2011.* CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMAREP1,Rev.1,November1980.* AnalysisofTechniquesforEstimatingEvacuationTimesforEmergencyPlanningZones,NUREG/CR1745,November1980.* DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR 6863,January2005.Theworkeffortreportedhereinwassupportedandguidedbylocalstakeholderswhocontributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table1 1presentsasummaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.Table1 1.StakeholderInteractionStakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionDukeEnergyMeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagencies.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumptions.Attendedfinalmeeting.ChathamCountyEmergencyManagementMettodiscussprojectmethodology,keyprojectassumptionsandtodefinedataneeds.Obtaincountyemergencyplans,specialfacilitydataandexistingtrafficmanagementplansthroughe mailandphonecalls.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumptions.HarnettCountyEmergencyManagementMettodiscussprojectmethodology,keyprojectassumptionsandtodefinedataneeds.Obtaincountyemergencyplans,specialfacilitydataandexistingtrafficmanagementplansthroughe mailandphonecalls.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumption.Attendedfinalmeeting.LeeCountyOfficeofEmergencyServices HarrisNuclearPlant1 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1StakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionWakeCountyEmergencyManagementMettodiscussprojectmethodology,keyprojectassumptionsandtodefinedataneeds.Obtaincountyemergencyplan,GISdata,specialfacilitydataandexistingtrafficmanagementplansthroughe mailandphonecalls.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumptions.Attendedfinalmeeting.NorthCarolinaEmergencyManagementMettodiscussprojectmethodology,keyprojectassumptionsandtodefinedataneeds.Obtainstateemergencyplans.Reviewedandapprovedallprojectassumptions.Attendedfinalmeeting.OfficesofJordanLakeStateRecreationArea(SRA)ObtaintransientdataforJordanLakeNorthCarolinaDepartmentofTransportationandNorthCarolinaTurnpikeAuthorityObtainroadwayandinterchangeinformationforNC 540Toll.1.1 OverviewoftheETEProcessThefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:1. InformationGathering:a. DefinedthescopeofworkindiscussionswithrepresentativesfromDukeEnergy.b. AttendedmeetingswithemergencyplannersfromChathamCountyEmergencyManagement,HartnettCountyEmergencyManagement,LeeCountyOfficeofEmergencyServices,WakeCountyEmergencyManagementandNorthCarolinaEmergencyManagementtoidentifyissuestobeaddressedandresourcesavailable.c. ConductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaysystemandofareatrafficconditionswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)1andShadowRegion.d. Obtaineddemographicdatafromthe2010census.e. ConductedarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.f. Conductedadatacollectionefforttoidentifyanddescribeschoolsandchildcarecenters,medicalfacilities,transientattractions,majoremployers,transportationresourcesavailable,andotherimportantinformation.2. Estimateddistributionsoftripgenerationtimesrepresentingthetimerequiredbyvariouspopulationgroups(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare(mobilize)fortheevacuationtrip.Theseestimatesareprimarilybasedupontherandomsampletelephonesurvey.1AllreferencestoEmergencyPlanningZoneorEPZrefertotheplumeexposurepathwayEPZ.

HarrisNuclearPlant1 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13. DefinedEvacuationScenarios.Thesescenariosreflectthevariationindemand,intripgenerationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdifferentseasons,dayofweek,timeofdayandweatherconditions.4. Reviewedtheexistingtrafficmanagementplantobeimplementedbylocalandstatepoliceintheeventofanincidentattheplant.Trafficcontrolisappliedatspecif iedTrafficControlPoints(TCP)locatedwithintheEPZ.5. UsedexistingSub Zonestodefineevacuationregions.TheEPZispartitionedinto14Sub Zonesalongjurisdictionalandgeographicboundaries."Regions"aregroupsofcontiguousSub ZonesforwhichETEarecalculate d.TheconfigurationsoftheseRegionsreflectwinddirectionandtheradialextentoftheimpactedarea.EachRegion,otherthanthosethatapproximatecircularareas,approximatesa"key holesection"withintheEPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR 7002.6. Estimateddemandfortransitservicesforpersonsatspecialfacilitiesandfortransit dependentpersonsatho me.7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheDYNEVIIsystemwhichcomputesETE(SeeAppendicesBandC).a. Estimatedtheevacuationtrafficdemand,basedontheavailableinformationderivedfromCensusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagencies,DukeEnerg yandfromthetelephonesurvey.b. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM 2)tothedataacquiredduringthefieldsurvey,toestimatethecapacityofallhighwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.c. Developedthelink noderepresentationoftheevacuationnetwork,whichisusedasthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.d. CalculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandforeachRegionandforeachScenario.e. Specifiedselectedcand idatedestinationsforeach"origin"(locationofeach"source"whereevacuationtripsaregeneratedoverthemobilizationtime)tosupportevacuationtravelconsistentwithoutboundmovementrelativetothelocationoftheHNP.8. ExecutedtheDYNEVIImodeltodetermineoptimalevacuat ionroutingandcomputeETEforallresidents,transientsandemployees("generalpopulation")withaccesstoprivatevehicles.GeneratedacompletesetofETEforallspecifiedRegionsandScenarios.9. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.10. CalculatedtheETEforalltransitactivitiesincludingthoseforspecialfacilities(schools,childcarecenters,andmedicalfacilities),forthetransit dependentpopulationandforhomeboundspecialneedspopulation.2HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010),TransportationResearchBoard,NationalResearchCouncil,2010.

HarrisNuclearPlant1 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.2 TheHarrisNuclearPlantLocationTheHNPislocatedonLakeHarrisapproximately20milessouthwestofRaleigh,NorthCarolina.TheEPZconsistsofpartsofChatham,Harnett,LeeandWakeCounties.AmajorityofthenorthwesternportionoftheEPZismadeupofBEverettJordanLake.Figure1 1displaystheareasurroundingtheHNP.Thismapidentifiesthecommunitiesintheareaan dthemajorroads.

HarrisNuclearPlant1 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 1.HNPLocation HarrisNuclearPlant1 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.3 PreliminaryActivitiesTheseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetworkKLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegionwhichconsistsoftheareabetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.ThesecharacteristicsareshowninTable1 2:Table1 2.HighwayCharacteristics Numberoflanes Postedspeed Lanewidth Actualfreespeed Shouldertype&width Abuttinglanduse Interchangegeometries Controldevices Lanechannelization&queuingcapacity(includingturnbays/lanes) Intersectionconfiguration(includingroundaboutswhereapplicable) Geometrics:curves,grades(>4%) Trafficsignaltype Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarningsigns,inadequatedelineations,tollbooths,etc.Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighwayinfrastructure.Noattemptwasmadetometiculouslymeasuresuchattributesaslanewidthandshoulderwidth;estimatesofthesemeasuresbasedonvisualobservationandrecordedimageswereconsideredappropriateforthepurposeofestimatingthecapacityofhighwaysections.Forexample,Exhibit15 7intheHCMindicatesthatareductioninlanewidthfrom12feet(the"base"value)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-notamaterialdifference-fortwo lanehighways.Exhibit15 30intheHCMshowslittlesensitivityfortheestimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),withrespecttoFFS,fortwo lanehighways.Thedatafromtheaudioandvideorecordingswereusedtocreatedetailedgeographicalinformationsystems(GIS)shapefilesanddatabasesoftheroadwaycharacteristicsandofthetrafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhilepreparingtheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.Asdocumentedonpage15 5oftheHCM2010,thecapacityofatwo lanehighwayis1,700passengercarsperhourinonedirection.Forfreewa ysections,avalueof2,250vehiclesperhourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Theroadsurveyhasidentifiedseveralsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwo lanehighwayswhicharereflectedinreducedvaluesforbothcapacityandspeed.TheseestimatesareconsistentwiththeservicevolumesforLOSEpresentedinHCMExhibit15 30.Theselinksmaybe HarrisNuclearPlant1 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1identifiedbyreviewingAppendixK.LinkcapacityisaninputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputestheETE.FurtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovidedinSection4ofthisreport.Trafficsignalsareeitherpre timed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewiththetrafficvolumeoncompetingapproaches),orareactuated(signaltimingsvaryovertimebasedonthechangingtrafficvolumesoncompetingap proaches).Actuatedsignalsrequiredetectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthesignalmastsandpointedtowardtheinters ectionapproaches.Ifdetectorswereobservedontheapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswerenotcollectedasthetimingsvarywithtrafficvolume.TCPsatlocationswhichhavecontroldevicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVIIsystem.Ifnodetectorswereob served,thesignalcontrolattheintersectionwasconsideredpre timed,anddetailedsignaltimingsweregatheredforseveralsignalcycles.ThesesignaltimingswereinputtotheDYNEVIIsystemusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Figure1 2presentsth elink nodeanalysisnetworkthatwasconstructedtomodeltheevacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.ThedirectionalarrowsonthelinksandthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure1 2toclarifythefigure.ThedetailedfiguresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanal ysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownandnodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibratetheanalysisnetwork.TelephoneSurveyAtelephonesurveywasundertakentogatherinformationneededfortheevacuationstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveyinstrument,theproceduresusedandtabulationsofdatacompiledfromthesurveyreturns.Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateel ementsofthemobilizationprocess.Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransit dependentresidents.ComputingtheEvacuationTimeEstimatesTheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfromseveralsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedintovehicledemanddata.Thevehicledemandwasloadedontoappropriate"source"linksoftheanalysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIsystemwasthenusedtocomput eETEforallRegionsandScenarios.AnalyticalToolsTheDYNEVIISystemthatwasemployedforthisstudyiscomprisedofseveralintegratedcomputermodels.OneoftheseistheDYNEV(DYnamicNetworkEVacuation)macroscopicsimulationmodel,anewversionoftheIDYNEVmodelthatwasdevelopedbyKLDundercontractwiththeFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA).

HarrisNuclearPlant1 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure1 2.HNPLink NodeAnalysisNetwork HarrisNuclearPlant1 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursub models: Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC). ATripDistribution(TD),modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesforeach"origin"(O)locatedwithintheanalysisnetwork,whereevacuationtripsare"generated"overtime.ThisestablishesasetofO Dtables. ADynamicTrafficAssignment(DT A),modelwhichassignstripstopathsoftravel(routes)whichsatisfytheO Dtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmodelsareintegratedtoformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedinAppendixB. AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwh ichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,ifpossible.AnothersoftwareproductdevelopedbyKLD,namedUNITES(UNIfiedTransportationEngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutputtables.Thedynamicsoftrafficflowoverthenetworkaregraphicallyanimatedusingthesoftwareproduct,EVAN(EVacuationANimator),developedbyKLD.EVANisGISbased,anddisplaysstatisticssuchasLOS,vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,outputbytheDYNEVIISystem.TheuseofaGISframeworkenablestheusertozoominonareasofcongestionandqueryroadname,townnameandothergeographicalinformation.TheprocedureforapplyingtheDYNEVIISystemwithintheframeworkofdevelopingETEisoutlinedinAppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.Forthereaderinterestedinanevaluationoftheoriginalmodel,I DYNEV,thefollowingreferencesaresuggested: NUREG/CR 4873-BenchmarkStudyoftheI DYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode NUREG/CR 4874-TheSensitivityofEvacuati onTimeEstimatestoChangesinInputParametersfortheI DYNEVComputerCodeTheevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto: RoutetrafficalongpathsoftravelthatwillexpeditetheirtravelfromtheirrespectivepointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ. Restrictmovementtowardtheplanttotheextentpracticable,anddispersetrafficdemandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways. Movetrafficindirectionsthataregenerallyoutbound,relativetothelocationoftheHNP.DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.Thisdescriptionenablestheanalysttoidentifybottlenecksandtodevelopcountermeasuresthataredesignedtorepresentthebehavioralresponsesofevacuees.Theeffectsofthesecountermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel.

HarrisNuclearPlant1 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudyTable1 3presentsacomparisonofthepresentETEstudywiththeprevious(2007)study.ThemajorfactorscontributingtothedifferencesbetweentheETEvaluesobtainedinthisstudyandthoseofthepreviousstudycanbesummarizedasfollows: ChangeswhichcauseanincreaseinETE:o Significant(39%)increaseinpermanentresidentpopulationo Adecreaseintheaveragevehicleoccupancy(1 2%)whichresultsin12%moreevacuatingvehicleso Residentswithcommuterstake30minuteslongertomobilizeo Residentswithoutcommuterstake45minuteslongertomobilize ChangeswhichcauseadecreaseinETE:o Adecrease(13%)inemployeescommutingintotheEPZo Adecrease(23%)intransientswithintheEPZ.The2007studyconsideredthe4 thofJulypeaktransientlevelsatJordanLakeastheaveragetransientpopulation.ThisstudyusesaveragesummertransientpopulationatJordanLake.o Adecreaseinshadowandvoluntaryevacuationbyasmuchas30%.o Theproceduresoutlinedinthe2010HCMresultinslightlyhigherbaselineroadwaycapacitiesthantheproceduresintheHCM2000.o Increasedroadwayca pacity-thenewlyconstructedNC 540TollandJuddParkwayprovidesignificantcapacityimprovementsinthestudyareao Transientsandemployeesmobilize35minutesfaster.o Evacuationmodelimprovements-theDYNEVIIsystemusesDynamicTrafficAssignment(SeeAppendicesBan dC)whichadjustsroutingtoavoidtrafficcongestiontotheextentfeasible(similartoamodernGPS).Thesignificantincreaseinpermanentresidentpopulationcoupledwiththesignificantdecreaseinvehicleoccupancyresultsinmanymoreevacuatingvehiclesinthisstudythaninthepreviousstudy,whichwouldtypicallyleadtosignificant(greaterthan30minutes)increasesinETE.However,thevariousfactorsthatdecreaseETE,especiallytheadditionalroadwaycapacit yprovidedbyNC 540TollandJuddParkway,helptooffsetthesignificantincreaseinevacuatingvehicles.Theendresultisa15minuteincreaseinETEatthe90 thpercentileforwinterweekdaycasesanda25minuteincreaseforsummerweekendcases.

HarrisNuclearPlant1 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table1 3.ETEStudyComparisonsTopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyResidentPopulationBasisArcGISSoftwareusing2000USCensusblocks;blockcentroidmethodused;populationextrapolatedto2007.Population=74,097ArcGISSoftwareusing2010USCensusblocks;arearatiomethodused.Population=102,961ResidentPopulationVehicleOccupancy3.05persons/household,1.33evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:2.29persons/vehicle.2.82persons/household,1.39evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:2.02persons/vehicle.EmployeePopulationEmployeestreatedasseparatepopulationgroup.EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployersinEPZ,supplementedbyobservationsofcommercialpropertyinEPZfromaerialimagery.1.08employees/vehiclebasedontelephonesurveyresults.Employees=3,984EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedaboutmajoremployersinEPZ.1.07employeespervehiclebasedontelephon esurveyresults.Employees=3,467TransitDependentPopulationDefinedashouseholdswith0vehicles.Telephonesurveyresultsusedtoestimatetransitdependentpopulation.Atotalof345peoplerequiring12busestoevacuate.Anadditional99homeboundspecialneedspersonsneedspecialtransportationtoevacuate(76requireabus,17requireawheelchair accessiblevehicle,and6requireanambulance).EstimatesbaseduponU.S.Censusdataandtheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.Includeshouseholdswith0vehiclesandhouseholdswith1or2vehicleswhichareusedbyacommuterwhowouldnotreturnhome.Atotalof3,419peoplewhodonothaveaccesstoavehicle,requiring114busestoevacuate.Anadditional103homeboundspecialneedspersonsneedspecialtransportationtoevacuate(75requireabus,19requireawheelchair accessiblevehicle,and9requireanambulance).TransientPopulationTransientestimatesbasedoninformationfromcountyandinternetsearcheswereusedtoobtainmoredetailedinformation.Transients=14,831TransientestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Transients=11,442 HarrisNuclearPlant1 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyMedicalFacilityPopulationMedicalfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.MedicalFacilityPopulation=686Vehiclesoriginatingatspecialfacilities=78SpecialfacilitypopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.MedicalFacilityPopulation=896Vehiclesoriginatingatspecialfacilities=143SchoolPopulationSchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.Schoolenrollment=16,850Busesrequired=309SchoolpopulationbasedoninformationprovidedbyeachcountywithintheEPZ.ChildCareCentersincludedintheseestimates.Schoolenrollment=23,530Busesrequired=445VoluntaryevacuationfromwithinEPZinareasoutsideregiontobeevacuated50%ofpopulationwithinthecircularportionoftheregion;35%,inannularringbetweenthecircleandtheEPZboundary.20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZ,butnotwithintheEvacuationRegion(seeFigure2 1)ShadowEvacuation30%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheshadowregion.20%ofpeopleoutsideoftheEPZwithintheShadowRegion(seeFigure7 2)NetworkSize1,720Links;1,234Nodes.2,311links;1,613nodesRoadwayGeometricDataFieldsurveysconductedin2006.Majorintersectionswerevideoarchived.GISshape filesofsignallocationsandroadwaycharacteristicscreatedduringroadsurvey.RoadcapacitiesbasedonHCM2000.FieldsurveysconductedinMarch2012.Roadsandintersectionswerevideoarchived.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2010HCM.SchoolEvacuationDirectevacuationtodesignatedRelocationSchool.DirectevacuationtodesignatedRelocationSchool.Ridesharing50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighboroffriend.50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillevacuatewithaneighbororfriend.

HarrisNuclearPlant1 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyTripGenerationforEvacuationBasedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersleavebetween30and240minutes.Householdswithoutcommutersleavebetween15and180minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and150minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Basedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpre tripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween30and270minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and225minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and105minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.WeatherNormal,Rain,orIce.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainand20%forice.Normal,Rain,orIce.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainand20%forice.ModelingI DYNEVSystem:TRADandPC DYNEV.DYNEVIISystem-Version4.0.10.0SpecialEventsNewPlantConstruction.SpecialEventPopulation:3,500additionalemployeesFourthofJulyonJordanLakeSpecialEventPopulation=7,112additionaltransientsEvacuationCases25Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and12Scenariosproducing300uniquecases36Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and14Scenariosproducing504uniquecases.EvacuationTimeEstimatesReportingETEreportedfor50 th ,90 th ,95 th ,and100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.ETEreportedfor90 thand100 thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheentireEPZ,90 thpercentileWinterWeekdayMiddayGoodWeather=2:35SummerWeekendMiddayGoodWeather=2:15WinterWeekdayMidday,GoodWeather=2:50SummerWeekend,Midday,GoodWeather=2:40 HarrisNuclearPlant2 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONSThissectionpresentstheestimatesandassumptionsutilizedinthedevelopmentoftheevacuationtimeestimates.NUREG/CR 7002wasusedasthebasisformostoftheassumptionsprovidedinthissection.KLDhasbeendoingETEstudiesforU.S.nuclearpowerplantsforover30years,including16newplantapplicationsduringthelast5years.Duringthattime,KLDhasworkedwithmorethan100stateandcountyemergencymanagementagencies.ThenewplantapplicationETEstudieswerereviewedextensivelybytheU.S.NuclearRegulatoryCommission(NRC)andrefinedthroughtheRequestforAdditionalInformation(RAI)process.KLDdevelopedalistofkeyprojectass umptionsbasedonNUREG/CR 7002,onyearsofETEexperienceandinteractionwithoffsiteagencies,andonfeedbackfromtheNRCthroughRAIs.Thelistwasdiscussedwithstakeholdersattheprojectkickoffmeeting.Thelistwasthenrefinedbasedoninputsfromstakeholdersanddocumentedinatechnicalme mo.ThememowasapprovedbyallstakeholderspriortocomputingETE.2.1 DataEstimates1. PermanentresidentpopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.2. EstimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZarebasedupondataprovidedbycountyemergencymanagementdepartments.3. Populationestimatesatspecialfacilitiesarebasedonavailabledatafromcountyemergencymanagementdepartments.4. RoadwaycapacityestimatesarebasedonfieldsurveysandtheapplicationoftheHighwayCapacityManual2010.5. Populationmobilizationtimesarebasedonastatisticalanal ysisofdataacquiredfromarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents(seeSection5andAppendixF).6. TherelationshipbetweenresidentpopulationandevacuatingvehiclesisdevelopedfromtheU.S.Censusandthetelephonesurvey(SeeAppendixF).Averagevaluesof2.82peopleperhouseholdand1.39evacuatingvehiclespe rhouseholdareused.Therelationshipbetweenpersonsandvehiclesfortransientsandemployeesisasfollows:a. Employees:1.07employeespervehicle(telephonesurveyresults)forallmajoremployers.b. Campgrounds,parks,communitycenters,golfcoursesandlodgingfacilities:Vehicleoccupancyvariesbasedupondataprovidedforlocaltransientfacilities.SeeAppendixE.c. SpecialEv ent:VehicleoccupancyfortransientsattendingFourthofJulyonJordanLakewasderivedfromdataprovidedbytheofficesoftheJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaforeachJordanLakefacility.Vehicleoccupancyvariesbyfacilityandtheoverallaverageis3.5peoplepervehicle.11DatafromRevision4ofthe2007COLAETEstudywasappliedtooneoftheJordanLakeFacilities(Poe'sRidge)

HarrisNuclearPlant2 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.2 StudyMethodologicalAssumptions1. ETEarepresentedfortheevacuationofthe90 thand100 thpercentilesofpopulationforeachRegionandforeachScenario.ThepercentileETEisdefinedastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateissuedtoaspecificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethatRegionisclearoftheindicatedpercentileofevacuees.ARegionisdefinedasagroupofSub ZonesthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuate.Ascenarioisacombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.2. Evacuationmovements(pathsoftravel)aregenerallyoutboundrelativetotheplanttotheextentpermittedbythehighwaynetwork.Allmajorevacuationroutesareusedintheanalysis.3. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlying"keyhole"orcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedinSection1.4ofNUREG/CR 7002.Th eseRegions,asdefined,displayirregularboundariesreflectingthegeographyoftheSubZonesincludedwithintheseunderlyingconfigurations.4. AsindicatedinFigure2 2ofNUREG/CR 7002,100%ofpeoplewithintheimpacted"keyhole"evacuate.Twentypercent(20%)ofthosepeoplewithintheEPZ,notwithintheimpactedkeyhole,willvoluntarilyevacuate.Twentypercent(20%)ofthosepeoplewithintheShadowRegionwillvoluntarilyevacuate.SeeFigure2 1foragraphicalrepresentationoftheseevacuationpercentages.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentageofvoluntaryevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).5. Atotalof14"Scenarios"representingdifferenttemporalvariations(season,timeofday,dayofweek)andweatherconditionsareconsidered.TheseScenariosareou tlinedinTable2 1.6. Scenario14considerstheclosureofonelanenorthboundonUS 1fromjusteastoftheinterchangewithNewHillHollemanRd(Exit89)totheinterchangewithI 40(Exit1A)andonelaneeastboundonUS 64fromNewHillOliveChapelRd/NC 751totheinterchang ewithI 40(Exit1A).

HarrisNuclearPlant2 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table2 1.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 2DayofWeekTimeofDay WeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodFourthofJulyonJordanLake14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosuresonUS 1andUS 64

2Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnotinsession.

HarrisNuclearPlant2 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure2 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology HarrisNuclearPlant2 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12.3 StudyAssumptions1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingeventattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplementedthatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing:a. AdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.b. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesaftersirennotification.c. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.2. ItisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofSubZonesformingaRegionthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuatewill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththeplannedroutes.3. 68percentofthehouseholdsintheEPZhaveatleast1commuter;41percentofthosehouseholdswithcommuterswillawaitthereturnofacommuterbeforebeginningtheirevacuationtrip,basedonthetelephonesurveyresults.Therefore28percent(68%x41%=28%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnofacommuter,priortobeginningtheirevacua tiontrip.Itisassumedthattheresponsestothetelephonesurveyregardingthereturnofcommuterspriortoevacuatingareapplicableforthisstudy.4. TheETEwillalsoincludeconsiderat ionof"through"(External External)tripsduringthetimethatsuchtrafficispermittedtoentertheevacuatedRegion."Normal"trafficflowisassumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergency.5. SecurityRoadBlocks(SRB)willbestaffedwithinapproximately30minutesfollowingthesirennotifications(basedupondataprovidedbyemergencymanagementagencies),todiverttrafficattemptingtoentertheEPZ.EarlieractivationofSRBlocationscoulddelayreturningcommuters.ItisassumedthatnothroughtrafficwillentertheEPZafterthis30minutetimeperiod.6. TrafficControlPoints(TCP)withintheEPZwillbestaffedovertime,beginningatth eAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheirnumberandlocationwilldependontheRegiontobeevacuatedandresourcesavailable.TheobjectivesoftheseTCPare:a. Facilitatethemovementsofall(mostlyevacuating)vehiclesatthelocation.b. Discourageinadvertentvehiclemovementstowardstheplant.c. Provideassuranceandguidancetoanytrav elerwhoisunsureoftheappropriateactionsorrouting.d. Actaslocalsurveillanceandcommunicationscenter.e. Provideinformationtotheemergencyoperationscenter(EOC)asneeded,basedondirectobservationoroninformationprovidedbytravelers.7. TheETEarecomputedandpresentedintabularformatandgraphically,inaformatcompliantwithNUREG/CR 7002.

HarrisNuclearPlant2 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18. ThemodelsoftheI DYNEVSystemwererecognizedasstateoftheartbytheAtomicSafety&LicensingBoard(ASLB)inpasthearings.(Sources:AtomicSafety&LicensingBoardHearingsonSeabrookandShoreham;Urbanik 3).ThemodelshavecontinuouslybeenrefinedandextendedsincethosehearingsandwereindependentlyvalidatedbyaconsultantretainedbytheNRC.ThenewDYNEVIImodelincorporatesthelatesttechnologyintrafficsimulationandindynamictrafficassignment.TheDYNEVIISystemisusedtocomputeETEinthisstudy.InformationprovidedbylocallawenforcementandcountyemergencymanagementdepartmentsindicatedthatPriority1TCPcouldbemannedwithin30minutesandallotherTCPcouldbemannedwithin120minutes.IncalculatingETE,itisassumedthatevacueeswilldrivesafely,travelindirectionsidentifiedintheplan,andobeyallcontroldevicesandtrafficguides.9. Buses,vans,ambulances,andminivanswillbeus edtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:a. Ifschoolsareinsession,transport(buses)willevacuatestudentsdirectlytothedesignatedrelocationschools.b. Studentsatprivateschoolsandchildcarecenterswillevacuatedirectlytothedesignatedrelocationschools.c. Buses,wheelchairvansandambulanceswillevacuatepatientsatmedicalfacilitiesandatanyseniorfacilitieswithintheEPZ,asneeded.d. Transit dependentgeneralpopulationwillbeevacuatedtoreceptioncenters.e. Schoolchildren,ifschoolsandchildcarecentersareinsession,aregivenpriorityinassigningtransitvehicles.f. BusmobilizationtimeisconsideredinETEcalculations.g. Analysisofthenumberofrequiredround trips("waves")ofevacuatingtransitvehiclesispresented.h. Transportoftransit dependentev acueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecentersisnotconsideredinthisstudy.10. Provisionsaremadeforevacuatingthetransit dependentportionofthege neralpopulationtoreceptioncentersbybus,basedontheassumptionthatsomeofthesepeoplewillride sharewithfamily,neighbors,andfriends,thusreducingthedemandforbuses.Weassumethatthepercentageofpeoplewhorideshareis50percent.Thisassumptionisbaseduponreportedexperienceforotheremergencies 4 ,andonguidanceinSection2.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.3Urbanik,T.,et.al.BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode,NUREG/CR4873,NuclearRegulatoryCommission,June,1988.4InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofToronto,THEMISSISSAUGAEVACUATIONFINALREPORT,June1981.Thereportindicatesthat6,600peopleofatransitdependentpopulationof8,600peoplesharedrideswith HarrisNuclearPlant2 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.111. Twotypesofadverseweatherscenariosareconsidered.Rainmayoccurforeitherwinterorsummerscenarios;iceoccursinwinterscenariosonly.Itisassumedthattherainoricebeginsearlierorataboutthesametimetheevacuationadvisoryisissued.Noweather relatedreductioninthenumberoftransientswhomaybepresentintheEPZisassumed.Itisassumedthatroadsarepassableandthattheappropriateagenci esareclearingtheroadsastheywouldnormallywhenicyconditionsarepresent.Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.ThefactorsappliedfortheETEstudyarebasedonrecentresearchontheeffectsofweatheronroadwayoperations 5;thefactorsareshowninTable2 2.12. Schoolbusesusedtotransportstudentsareassumedtotransport70studentsperbusforelementaryschoolsand50studentsperbusformiddleandhighschools,basedondiscussionswithcountyofficesofemergencymanagement.Transitbusesusedtotransportthetransit dependentgeneralpopulationareassumedtotransport30peopleperbus.ItisassumedthatdriversforvehiclesidentifiedinTable8 5ar eavailable.13. Schoolbuseswillbeloadedin15minutes.Busesformedicalfacilitiesandseniorfacilitieswillrequire2minutesofloadingtimeperpassengerandwheelchairtransportvehicleswillrequire7minutesofloadingtimeperpassenger.Ambulanceswillrequire15minutesofloadingtimeperpassenger.Table2 2.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeatherScenarioHighwayCapacity*FreeFlowSpeed*MobilizationTimeforGeneralPopulationMobilizationTimeforTransitVehiclesRain90%90%NoEffect10minuteincreaseIce80%80%NoEffect20minuteincreaseIce(Sensitivity) 650%50%NoEffectN/ATransitdependentETEnotconsideredforthissensitivitystudy*Adverseweathercapacityandspeedvaluesaregivenasapercentageofgoodweatherconditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.otherresidents;aridesharerateof76%(Page510).5Agarwal,M.et.al.ImpactsofWeatheronUrbanFreewayTrafficFlowCharacteristicsandFacilityCapacity,Proceedingsofthe2005Mid ContinentTransportationResearchSymposium,August,2005.TheresultsofthispaperareincludedasExhibit10 15intheHCM2010.6Asensitivitystudywasconsideredforamajoricestormwitha50%reductionincapacityandfreeflowspeed.SeeAppendixM.

HarrisNuclearPlant3 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13 DEMANDESTIMATIONTheestimatesofdemand,expressedintermsofpeopleandvehicles,constituteacriticalelementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:1. AnestimateofpopulationwithintheEPZ,stratifiedintogroups(resident,employee,transient).2. Anestimate,foreachpopulationgroup,ofmeanoccupancyperevacuatingvehicle.Thisestimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.3. Anestimateofpotentialdouble countingofvehicles.AppendixEpresentsmuchofthesourcematerialforthepopulationestimates.Ourprimarysourceofpopulationdata,the2010Census,however,isnotadequatefordirectlyestimatingsometransientgroups.Throughouttheyear,v acationersandtouristsentertheEPZ.Thesenon residentsmaydwellwithintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.afewdaysoroneortwoweeks),ormayenterandleavewithinoneday.Estimatesofthesizeofthesepopulationcomponentsmustbeobtained,sothattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeas certained.Thepotentialfordouble countingpeopleandvehiclesmustbeaddressed.Forexample: AresidentwhoworksandshopswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresident,againasanemployeeandonceagainasashopper. Avisitorwhostaysatahotelandspendstimeatapark,the ngoesshoppingcouldbecountedthreetimes.Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motelparkinglotsmaybefullatdawnandemptyatnoon.Similarly,parkinglotsatareaparks,whicharefullatnoon,maybealmostem ptyatdawn.EstimatingcountsofvehiclesbysimplyaddingupthecapacitiesofdifferenttypesofparkingfacilitieswilltendtooverestimatethenumberoftransientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.AnalysisofthepopulationcharacteristicsoftheHNPEPZindicatestheneedtoidentifythreedistinctgroups: PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ. TransientspeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZwhoentertheareaforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation)andthenleavethearea. EmployeespeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZonadailybasis.EstimatesofthepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesforeachofthepopulationgroupsarepresentedforeachSub Zoneandbypolarcoordinaterepresentation(populationdistribution).TheHNPEP Zissubdividedinto14Sub Zones.TheEPZisshowninFigure3 1.

HarrisNuclearPlant3 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.1 PermanentResidentsTheprimarysourceforestimatingpermanentpopulationisthelatestU.S.Censusdata.Theaveragehouseholdsize(2.82persons/householdwasestimatedusingU.S.Censusdata-seeSectionF.3.1).Thenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhousehold(1.39vehicles/household-SeeFigureF 8)wasadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults.PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.TheestimatesarecreatedbycuttingthecensusblockpolygonsbytheSub ZoneandEPZboundariesusingGISsoftware.Aratiooftheoriginalareaofeachcensusblockandtheupdatedarea(aftercutting)ismultipliedbythetotalblockpopulationtoestimatethepopulationwithintheEPZ.Thismethodologyassumesthatthepopulationisevenlydistributedacr ossacensusblock.Table3 1providesthepermanentresidentpopulationwithintheEPZbySub Zonebasedonthismethodology.Theyear2010permanentresidentpopulationisdividedbytheaveragehouseholdsizeandthenmultipliedbytheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdinordertoestimatenumberofvehicles.PermanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresentedinTable3 2.Figure3 2andFigure3 3presentthepermanentresidentpopulationandpermanentresidentvehicleestimatesbysectoranddistancefromHNP.ThispopulationdistributionwasconstructedusingGISsoftware.Itcanbeargue dthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumberofevacuatingvehicles,especiallyduringthesummer.Itiscertainlyreasonabletoassertthatsomeportionofthepopulationwouldbeonvacationduringthesummerandwouldtravelelsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductioncanbeobtainedasfollows: Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforaperiodoverthesummer. Assumethesevacations,inaggregate,areuniformlydispersedover10weeks,i.e.10percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwo weekinterval. Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.Onthisbasis,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummerandbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedtoapplynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountfo rresidentswhomaybeoutofthearea.

HarrisNuclearPlant3 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 1.HNPEPZ HarrisNuclearPlant3 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 1.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationSub Zone2000Population2007Population(Estimated) 12010PopulationA143180134B1,2341,3971,257C3314162,086D258319346E26,08232,87945,269F10,76413,53422,342G12,86415,49721,463H2,9063,4443,868I804947963J1,1451,3481,126K619763688L708874815M1,4401,7781,753N584721851TOTAL59,88274,097102,961EPZPopulationGrowth(2000 2010):71.9%EPZPopulationGrowth(2007 2010):39.0%Table3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbySubZoneSub Zone2010Population2010ResidentVehiclesA13464B1,257618C2,0861,026D346168E45,26922,279F22,34210,993G21,46310,556H3,8681,902I963473J1,126552K688336L815399M1,753858N851415TOTAL102,96150,6391Rev.42007COLAETE2000Censusextrapolatedto2007basedonaverageannualcountygrowthratesfrom2005 2007 HarrisNuclearPlant3 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 2.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 3.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.2 ShadowPopulationAportionofthepopulationlivingoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesradiallyfromtheHNP(intheShadowRegion)mayelecttoevacuatewithouthavingbeeninstructedtodoso.BaseduponNUREG/CR 7002guidance,itisassumedthat20percentofthepermanentresidentpopulation,basedonU.S.CensusBureaudata,inthisShadowRegionwillelecttoevacuate.Shadowpopulationcharacteristics(householdsize,evacuationvehiclesperhousehold,mobilizationtime)areassumedtobethesameasthosefortheEPZpermanentresidentpopulation.Table3 3,Figure3 4,andFigure3 5presentestimatesoftheshadowpopulationandvehicles,bysector.Table3 3.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySectorSectorPopulationEvacuatingVehiclesN6,3743,138NNE49,71524,478NE57,32128,239ENE22,33810,995E16,9958,365ESE11,4145,611SE6,0362,966SSE1,965969S1,777874SSW3,5061,723SW2,9151,428WSW2,9181,434W1,236605WNW4,9822,438NW2,9111,429NNW5,6872,798TOTAL198,09097,490

HarrisNuclearPlant3 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 4.ShadowPopulationbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 5.ShadowVehiclesbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.3 TransientPopulationTransientpopulationgroupsaredefinedasthosepeople(whoarenotpermanentresidents,norcommutingemployees)whoentertheEPZforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation).Transientsmayspendlessthanonedayorstayovernightatcampingfacilities,hotelsandmotels.TheHNPEPZhasanumberofareasandfacilitiesth atattracttransients,including: Campgrounds Parks CommunityCenters GolfCourses LodgingFacilitiesJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaistheprimarytransientattractionwithintheEPZ.JordanLakeisa46,768acrelakelocatedinthenorthwesternportionoftheEPZ,occupyingpartsofSub ZonesL,M,andN.TheJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaconsistsof12separatefacilities(11ofwhichareintheEPZwithCrosswindsCampgroundandMarinaaccountingfor2facilities)thatoffercamping,fishing,swimming,andboating.ThereareeightcampgroundswithintheEPZ.DataprovidedbyChathamCountyandtheofficesoftheJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaincludedthenumberofcampsites,peakoccupancyandthenumberofvehiclesandpeoplepercampsiteforeachfacility.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfortransientsateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof4,060transi entsand1,338vehicleshavebeenassignedtocampgroundswithintheEPZ.Themajority,3,775transientsand1,161vehiclesareattributedtothefivedifferentJordanLakecampgroundfacilities(NewHopeOverlook,PoplarPoint,VistaPoint,CrosswindsCampgroundandMarina,andParker'sCreek).TherearenumerousparksandcommunitycenterswithintheEPZ.FiveofthefacilitiesareJordanLakeStateRecreationAreas(EbenezerChurch,Poe'sRidge,RobesonCreek,SeaforthandWhiteOak).DataprovidedbyChatham,HarnettandWakeCountiesandtheofficesoftheJordanLakeStateRecreationAreaincludedthenumberoftransientsandvehiclesvisitingeachfacilityonapeakday.Atotalof6,296transientsand2,234vehicleshavebeenassignedtoparksandcommunitycenterswithintheEPZ.3,337transientsand873vehiclesareattributedtothefivedifferentJordanLakeparkfacilities.TherearethreegolfcourseswithintheEPZ.DataprovidedbyWakeCountyincludedthenumberofgolfersandvehiclesateachfacilityonapeakday,andthenumberofgolfersthattravelsfromoutsidethearea.Atotalof620transientsand410vehiclesareassignedtogolfcourseswithintheEPZ.ThereareninelodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.DataprovidedbyWakeCountyincludedth enumberofrooms,percentageofoccupiedroomsatpeaktimes,andthenumberofpeopleandvehiclesperroomforeachfacility.Thesedatawereusedtoestimatethenumberoftransientsandevacuatingvehiclesateachofthesefacilities.Atotalof466transientsin402vehiclesareassignedtolodgingfacilitiesintheEPZ.

HarrisNuclearPlant3 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AppendixEsummarizesthetransientdatathatwasestimatedfortheEPZ.TableE 5presentsthenumberoftransientsvisitingcampgrounds,TableE 6presentsthenumberoftransientsatparksandcommunitycenters,TableE 7presentsthenumberoftransientsatgolfcoursesandTableE 8presentsthenumberoftransientsatlodgingfacilitieswithintheEPZ.Table3 4presentstran sientpopulationandtransientvehicleestimatesbySub Zone.Figure3 6andFigure3 7presentthesedatabysectoranddistancefromtheplant.

HarrisNuclearPlant3 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 4.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehiclesSub ZoneTransientsTransientVehiclesA401182B289131C7030D224102E1,230771F703428G824375H8052I00J00K440210L2,767909M2,306667N2,108527TOTAL11,4424,384 HarrisNuclearPlant3 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 6.TransientPopulationbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 7.TransientVehiclesbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.4 EmployeesEmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintotwocategories: ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ.Thoseofthefirstcategoryarealreadycountedaspartofthepermanentresidentpopulation.Toavoiddoublecounting,wefocusonlyonthoseemployeescommutingfromoutsidetheEPZwhowillevacuatealongwiththepermanentresidentpopulation.DataprovidedbyChathamandWakeCountieswereusedtoestimatethenumberofemployeescommutingintotheEPZforthoseemployerswhodidnotprovidedata.AccordingtoNUREG/CR 7002,employeesareconsideredtransients.Forthisstud y,transientsandemployeescommutingfromoutsideoftheEPZareconsideredseparately.Employeesandtransientshavedifferentscenariopercentages(seeTable6 3).Forexample,employeespeakduringthewinter,weekday,middayscenarioswhiletransientspeakduringsummerweekends.Forthisreason,employeesweretreatedseparatelyfromtransients.InTableE 4,theE mployees(MaxShift)aremultipliedbythepercentNon EPZfactortodeterminethenumberofemployeeswhoarenotresidentsoftheEPZ.Avehicleoccupancyof1.07employeespervehicleobtainedfromthetelephonesurvey(SeeFigureF 7)wasusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingemployeevehiclesforallmajoremployers.Table3 5presentsnon EPZResidentemployeeandvehicleestimatesbySub Zone.Figure3 8andFigure3 9presentthesedatabysector.

HarrisNuclearPlant3 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 5.SummaryofNon EPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesSub ZoneEmployeesEmployeeVehiclesA519485B00C00D00E1,2281,150F789739G582545H00I00J5753K247230L4542M00N00TOTAL3,4673,244 HarrisNuclearPlant3 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 8.EmployeePopulationbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure3 9.EmployeeVehiclesbySector HarrisNuclearPlant3 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.5 MedicalFacilitiesDatawereprovidedbythecountiesforeachofthemedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZ.TableE 3inAppendixEsummarizesthedatagathered.Section8detailstheevacuationofmedicalfacilitiesandtheirpatients.Thenumberandtypeofevacuatingvehiclesthatneedtobeprovideddependonthepatients'stateofhealth.Itisestimatedthatbusescantransportupto30people;wheelchairvans,upto4people;wheelchairbusesupto15people;minivansupto5people;passengercarsupto4peopleandambulances,upto2people.3.6 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulationVehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(externalexternaltrips)atthetimeofanemergencyevent.AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thesethrough travelerswillalsoevacuate.Thesethroughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutestraversingthestudyarea-US 1,US 64,US 401,US 421andI 40).Emergencymanagementagenciesindicatedthatthistrafficwillcontinuetoenterthestudyduringthefirst30minutesfollowingtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)datawasobtainedfromFederalHighwayAdministrationtoestimatethenumberofvehiclesperhourontheaforementionedroutes.Th eAADTwasmultipliedbytheKFactor,whichistheproportionoftheAADTonaroadwaysegmentorlinkduringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusuallythe30 thhighesthourlytrafficvolumeoftheyear,measuredinvehiclesperhour(vph).TheDHVisthenmultipliedbytheD Factor,whichistheproportionoftheDHVoccurringinthepeakdirectionoftravel(alsoknownasthedirectionalsplit).Theresultingvaluesarethedirectionaldesignhourlyvolumes(DDHV),an darepresentedinTable3 6,foreachoftheroutesconsidered.TheDDHVisthenmultipliedby1/2hour(SecurityRoadBlocks-SRB-areassumedtobeactivatedat30minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuatebasedupondataprovidedbyemergencymanagementagencies)toestimatethetotalnumberofexternalvehiclesloadedontheanalysisnetwork.Asindicated,thereare6,963vehiclesenteringthestudyareaasexternal externaltripspriortotheactivationoftheSRBandthediversionofthistraffic.Thisnumberisreducedby60%foreveningscenarios(Scenarios5and12)asdiscussedinSection6.3.7 SpecialEventDuringtheprojectkickoffmeeting,theoffsiteagenciesdiscussedtwospecialeventsinthestudyarea.EventsattheKokaBoothAmphitheatre(locatedinCaryjustoutsidetheEPZ)canattractatmost31,000people,15%ofwhomaretransientsforatotalof4,650transients(dataprovidedbyWakeCounty).DataprovidedbytheOfficesofJordanLakeSRAindicatedthat75%ofindividualsvisitingJordanLakefacilitiesaretransients,resultinginpermanentresidentswithintheEPZmakinguptheremaining25%.ThefireworksdisplayduringFourthofJulyonJordanLakeattracts14,224people,factoringoutthepermanentresidents.Basedonfederalguidance,Four thofJulywaschosenasthespecialevent(Scenario13)becauseithasthelargest HarrisNuclearPlant3 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1transientpopulation.Peopleattendingthefireworksshowaredispersedbetweenthe11differentJordanLakefacilitieswithintheEPZ.DatawereobtainedfromtheofficesoftheJordanLakeSRA.Accordingtothedataprovided,the14,224peopleattendingthefireworkstravelin4,067vehicles.Fiftypercent(50%)ofthesetransientsarealreadypresentonJordanLakeduringanaveragesummerweekend.Thus,thereareanadditional7,112transientstravelinginapproximately2,033vehiclesforthespecialevent.TheseadditionalvehicleswereloadedontoappropriateroadwaysintheanalysisnetworkateachofthedifferentJordanLakefacilities.Thespecialeventvehicletripswer egeneratedutilizingthesamemobilizationdistributionsfortransients.Publictransportationisnotprovidedforthiseventandwasnotconsideredinthespecialeventanalysis.

HarrisNuclearPlant3 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 6.HNPEPZExternalTrafficUpstreamNodeDownstreamNodeRoadNameDirectionHPMS 1AADTK Factor 2DFactor 2HourlyVolumeExternalTraffic8590590US 1NB17,0000.1160.254932478375375US 1SB17,0000.1160.59864938137137US 64EB17,0000.1160.254932478375375US 64WB17,0000.1160.59864938222222US 401NB11,0000.1160.56383198224224US 401SB11,0000.1160.563831981031103US 421EB5,7000.1180.53361688666666US 421WB5,7000.1180.5336168802020I 40EB110,0000.0820.54,5102,2558359359I 40WB110,0000.0820.54,5102,255TOTAL 6,9631 HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS),FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),Washington,D.C.,20122 HCM2010 HarrisNuclearPlant3 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.13.8 SummaryofDemandAsummaryofpopulationandvehicledemandisprovidedinTable3 7andTable3 8,respectively.ThissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedinthissectionandSection8.Additionalpopulationgroups-transit dependent,specialfacilityandschoolpopulation-aredescribedingreaterdetailinSection8.Atotalof185,323peopleand86,017vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy.

HarrisNuclearPlant3 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 7.SummaryofPopulationDemandSubZoneResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalA1344401519440001,102B1,25742289000001,588C2,0866970030002,228D3461122400000581E45,2691,5041,2301,2282618,8890058,376F22,342743703789447,9360032,552G21,4637138245824075,0020028,991H3,86812880000004,076I96332000000995J1,126370571370001,357K6882344024700001,398L815272,7674500003,654M1,753582,30600285004,402N851282,108000002,987Shadow000001,418 239,618041,036Total102,9613,41911,4423,46789623,53039,6180185,323NOTE:ShadowPopulationhasbeenreducedto20%.RefertoFigure2 1foradditionalinformation.NOTE:SpecialFacilitiesonlyincludesmedicalfacilities.

2TherearetwoschoolsintheShadowthatevacuate-DeepRiverElementarySchoolinLeeCountyandLafayetteElementarySchoolinHarnettCounty.CountyemergencyplanscallforthesefacilitiestobeevacuatedbecauseoftheircloseproximitytotheEPZboundary.

HarrisNuclearPlant3 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table3 8.SummaryofVehicleDemandSubZoneResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees Special Facilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternal TrafficTotalA6421824857000740B618213100000751C1,026430010001,061D168210200000272E22,2791007711,150563420024,696F10,99348428739132960012,515G10,55648375545701980011,792H1,902852000001,962I4732000000475J552205328000635K33622102300000778L39929094200001,352M85846670010001,539N415252700000944Shadow000004419,4986,96326,505Total50,6392284,3843,24417589019,4986,96386,017NOTE:Busesrepresentedastwopassengervehicles.RefertoSection8foradditionalinformation.

HarrisNuclearPlant4 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITYTheabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghowrapidlyanevacuationcanbecompleted.Thecapacityofaroadisdefinedasthemaximumhourlyrateatwhichpersonsorvehiclescanreasonablybeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofalaneofroad wayduringagiventimeperiodunderprevailingroadway,trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010).Indiscussingcapacity,differentoperatingconditionshavebeenassignedalphabeticaldesignations,AthroughF,toreflecttherangeoftrafficoperationalcharacteristics.Thesedesignationshavebeentermed"LevelsofService"(LOS).Forexample,LOSAconnotesfree flowandhigh speedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSEdescribestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,is"ServiceVolume"(SV).Servicevolumeisdefinedas"Themaximu mhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofaroadwayduringanhourunderspecificassumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice."Thisdefinitionissimilartothatforcapacity.Themajordistinctionisthatva luesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,whilecapacityistheservicevolumeattheupperboundofLOSE,only.ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit11 17oftheHCM2010.Asindicatedthere,theSVvarieswithFreeFlowSpeed(FFS),andLOS.TheSViscalculatedbytheDYNEVIIsimulationmodel,basedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto: Lanewidth Shoulderwidth Pavementcondition Horizontalandverticalalignment(curvatureandgrade) Percenttrucktraffic Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal) Weatherconditions(rain,snow,fog,windspeed,ice)Thesefactorsareconsideredduringtheroadsurveyandinthecapacityestimationprocess;somefactorshavegreaterinfluenceoncapacitythanothers.Forexample,laneandshoulderwidthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS 1)accordingtoExhibit15 7oftheHCM.Consequently,laneandshoulderwidthsatthenarrowestpointswereobservedduringtheroadsurveyandtheseobservationswererecorded,butnodetailedmeasurementsoflaneorshoulderwidthweretaken.HorizontalandverticalalignmentcaninfluencebothFFSandcapacity.TheestimatedFFSweremeasuredusingth esurveyvehicle'sspeedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.Capacityisestimatedfromtheproceduresof1AveryroughestimateofBFFSmightbetakenasthepostedspeedlimitplus10mph(HCM2010Page1515)

HarrisNuclearPlant4 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1the2010HCM.Forexample,HCMExhibit7 1(b)showsthesensitivityofServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSDtograde(capacityistheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLOSE).AsdiscussedinSection2.3,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailingconditionsduringinclementweather.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuchasrainreducethevaluesoffreespeedandofhighwaycapacitybyapproximately10percent.Overthelastdecadenewstudieshavebeenmadeontheeffectsofrainontrafficcapacity.Thesestudiesindicatearangeofeffectsbetween5and20percentdependingonwindspeedandprecipitationrates.AsindicatedinSection2.3,weemployareductioninfreespeedandinhighwaycapacityof10percentand20percentforrainandice,respectively.Sincecongestionarisingfromevacuationmaybesignificant,estimatesofroadwaycapacit ymustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajorfactorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.Ruralhighwaysgenerallyconsistof:(1)oneormoreuniformsectionswithlimitedaccess(driveways,parkingareas)characterizedby"uninterrupted"flow;and(2)approachestoat gradeinters ectionswhereflowcanbe"interrupted"byacontroldeviceorbyturningorcrossingtrafficattheintersection.Duetothesedifferences,separateestimatesofcapacitymustbemadeforeachsection.Often,theapproachtotheintersectioniswidenedbytheadditionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsortur nbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacityoftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.TheseadditionallanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersectionsAt gradeintersectionsareapttobecomethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytrafficvolumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespectivecompetingtrafficstreamsbyexertingsomeformofcontrol.Duringevacuation,controlatcriticalintersectionswilloftenbeprovidedbytrafficcontrolpersonnelassignedforthatpurpose,whosedirectionsmaysupersedetrafficcontroldevices.Theex istingtrafficmanagementplansdocumentedinthecountyemergencyplansareextensiveandwereupdatedbaseduponconstructionofNC 540TollandthecompletionofJuddPkwyinFuquay Varina.SeeAppendixGformoreinformation.Theper lan ecapacityofanapproachtoasignalizedintersectioncanbeexpressed(simplistically)inthefollowingform:where:

HarrisNuclearPlant4 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Qcap,m=Capacityofasinglelaneoftrafficonanapproach,whichexecutesmovement,m ,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)h m=Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecutingmovement,m;secondspervehicleG=MeandurationofGREENtimeservicingvehiclesthatareexecutingmovement,m ,foreachsignalcycle;secondsL=Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;secondsC=Durationofeachsignalcycl e;secondsP m=ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m ,fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.m=Themovementexecutedbyvehiclesaftertheyentertheintersection:through,left turn,right turn,anddiagonal.Theturn movement specificmeandischargeheadwayh m ,dependsinacomplexwayuponmanyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischargeheadway",h sat ,whichappliestothroughvehiclesthatarenotimpededbyotherconflictingtrafficstreams.Thisvalue,itself,dependsuponmanyfactorsincludingmotoristbehavior.Formally,wecanwrite,where:h sat=Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicleF 1 ,F 2=Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencingh mf m ()=Complexfunctionrelatingh mtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,-Theestimationofh mforspecifiedvaluesofh sat ,F 1 ,F 2 ,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelbyamathematicalmodel 2.Theresultingvaluesforh malwayssatisfythecondition:2 Lieberman,E.,"DeterminingLateralDeploymentofTrafficonanApproachtoanIntersection",McShane,W.&Lieberman,E.,"ServiceRatesofMixedTrafficonthefarLeftLaneofanApproach".BothpapersappearinTransportationResearchRecord772,1980.Lieberman,E.,Xin,W.,"MacroscopicTrafficModelingForLarge ScaleEvacuationPlanning",presentedattheTRB2012AnnualMeeting,January22 26,2012 HarrisNuclearPlant4 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thatis,theturn movement specificdischargeheadwaysarealwaysgreaterthan,orequaltothesaturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles.Theseheadways(oritsinverseequivalent,"saturationflowrate"),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheproceduresoftheHCM2010.TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisETEreportandthecomplexityofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters18,19and20intheHCM2010addressthistopic.Thefactors,F 1 ,F 2 ,-,influencingsaturationflowrateareidentifiedinequation(18 5)oftheHCM2010.ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasingplansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignalinstallationsallowtheproportionofgreentimeallocated(P m)foreachapproachtoeachintersectiontobedeterminedbytheexpectedtrafficvolumesoneachapproachduringevacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumandminimumphasedurationconstraints;2secondsofyellowtimeareindicatedforeachsignalphaseand1secondofall redtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispre timed,theyellowandall redtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighwayThecapacit yofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunctionofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetrafficstream)and,ofcourse,motoristbehavior.Thereisafundamentalrelationshipwhichrelatesservicevolume(i.e.thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiventimeperiod)totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure4 1illustratesthisrelationship.Asindicated,therearetw oflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve);and(2)ForcedFlow(rightside).IntheFreeFlowregime,thetrafficdemandisfullyserviced;theservicevolumeincreasesasdemandvolumeanddensityincrease,untiltheservicevolumeattainsit smaximumvalue,whichisthecapacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighwaydensityincreasebeyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.theservicevolume)canactuallydeclinebelowcapacity("capacitydrop").Therefore,inordertorealisticallyrepresenttrafficperformanceduringcongestedconditions(i.e.whendemandexceedscapacity),itisnecessarytoestimatetheservicevolume,V F ,undercongestedconditions.ThevalueofV Fcanbeexpressedas:where:R=Reductionfactorwhichislessthanunity HarrisNuclearPlant4 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1WehaveemployedavalueofR=0.90.Theadvisabilityofsuchacapacityreductionfactorisbaseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafall offintheserviceflowratewhencongestionoccursat"bottlenecks"or"chokepoints"onafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson 3describearesearchprogramthatcollecteddatafromacomputer basedsurveillancesystem(loopdetectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincitiesmetroareainMinnesotaovera7 weekperiod.Whenflowbreakdownoccurs,queuesareformedwhichdischargeatlowerflowratesthanthemaximumcapacitypriortoobservedbreakdown.Thesequeuedischargeflow(QDF)ratesvaryfromonelocationtothenextandalsovarybydayofweekandtimeofdaybaseduponlocalcircumstances.ThecitedreferencepresentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompar eswiththenominalcapacityestimateof2,250pcphplestimatedfortheETEandindicatedinAppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoacapacityreductionfactorof0.90.Sincetheprincipalobjectiveofevacuationtimeestimateanalysesistodevelopa"realistic"estimateofevacuationtimes,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor(R=0.90)isjustified.Thisfactorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel.Ruralroads,likefreeways,areclassifiedas"uninterruptedflow"facilities.(Thisisincontrastwithurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedinters ectionsandareclassifiedas"interruptedflow"facilities.)Assuch,trafficflowalongruralroadsissubjecttothesameeffectsasfreewaysintheeventtrafficdemandexceedsthenominalcapacity,resultinginqueuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocationsawayfromintersections.Anybreakdownsonruralroadsaregenerallyexperiencedatintersectionswhereothermodellogicapplies,oratlanedropswhichreducecapacitythere.Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroads,butrarely,ifever,activated.Theestimatedvalueofcapacit yisbasedprimarilyuponthetypeoffacilityandonroadwaygeometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfree flowspeedsandlanecapacity.Exhibit15 30intheHighwayCapacityManualwasreferencedtoestimatesaturationflowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshould ersonfree flowspeedandoncapacityisnotmaterial,particularlywhenflowispredominantlyinonedirectionasisthecaseduringanevacuation.Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,V E ,basedonobservationsmadetravelingovereachsectionoftheevacuationnetwork,basedonthepostedspeedlimitsandtravelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetothe2010HCM.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodeldeterminesforeachhighwaysection,representedasanetworklink,whetheritscapacitywouldbelimitedbythe"section specific"servicevolume,V E ,orbytheintersection specificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.3 LeiZhangandDavidLevinson,"SomePropertiesofFlowsatFreewayBottlenecks,"TransportationResearchRecord1883,2004.

HarrisNuclearPlant4 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3 ApplicationtotheHNPStudyAreaAspartofthedevelopmentofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateofroadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedhereiniscontainedin:2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM)TransportationResearchBoardNationalResearchCouncilWashington,D.C.Thehighwaysysteminthestudyareaconsistsprimarilyofthreecategoriesofroadsand,ofcourse,intersections: Two Laneroads:Local,State Multi LaneHighways(at grade) FreewaysEachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.4.3.1 Two LaneRoadsRef:HCMChapter15TwolaneroadscomprisethemajorityofhighwayswithintheEPZ.Theperlanecapacityofatwo lanehighwayisestimatedat1700passengercarsperhour(pc/h).Thisestimateisessentiallyindependentofthedirectionaldistributionoftrafficvolumeexceptthat,forextendeddistances,thetwo waycapacitywillnotexceed3200pc/h.Th eHCMproceduresthenestimateLevelofService(LOS)andAverageTravelSpeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelacceptsthespecifiedvalueofcapacityasinputandcomputesaveragespeedbasedonthetime varyingdemand:capacityrelations.Basedonthefieldsurveyandonexpectedtrafficoperationsassociatedwithevacuationscenarios: Mostsectionsoftwo laneroadswithintheEPZareclassifiedas"Clas sI",with"levelterrain";someare"rollingterrain". "ClassII"highwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.4.3.2 Multi LaneHighwayRef:HCMChapter14Exhibit14 2oftheHCM2010presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaper lanecapacityrangingfromapproximately1900to2200pc/h,forfree speedsof45to60mph,respectively.Basedonobservation,themulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareaswithintheEPZservicetrafficwithfree speedsinthisrang e.Theactualtime varyingspeedscomputedbythesimulationmodelreflectthedemand:capacityrelationshipandtheimpactofcontrolatintersections.A HarrisNuclearPlant4 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1conservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof1900pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyformulti lanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.4.3.3 FreewaysRef:HCMChapters10,11,12,13Chapter10oftheHCM2010describesaprocedureforintegratingtheresultsobtainedinChapters11,12and13,whichcomputecapacityandLOSforfreewa ycomponents.Chapter10alsopresentsadiscussionofsimulationmodels.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelautomaticallyperformsthisintegrationprocess.Chapter11oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSfor"BasicFreewaySegments".Exhibit11 17oftheHCM2010presentscapacit yvs.freespeedestimates,whichareprovidedbelow.FreeSpeed(mph):55606570+Per LaneCapacity(pc/h):2250230023502400Theinputstothesimulationmodelarehighwaygeometrics,free speedsandcapacitybasedonfieldobservations.Thesimulationlogiccalculatesactualtime varyingspeedsbasedondemand:capacityrelationships.Aconservativeestimateofper lanecapacityof2250pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyforfreeways,asshowninAppendixK.Chapter12oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapa city,speed,densityandLOSforfreewayweavingsections.Thesimulationmodelcontainslogicthatrelatesspeedtodemandvolume:capacityratio.ThevalueofcapacityobtainedfromthecomputationalproceduresdetailedinChapter12dependsonthe"Type"andgeometricsoftheweavingsegmentan donthe"VolumeRatio"(ratioofweavingvolumetototalvolume).Chapter13oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacitiesoframpsandof"merge"areas.Therearethreesignificantfactorstothedeterminationofcapacityofarampfreewayjunction:Thecapacityofthefreewayimmediatelydownstreamofanon ramporimmediatelyupstreamofanoff ramp;thecapacityoftheramproadway;andthemaximumflowrateenteringtherampinfluencearea.Inmostcases,thefreewaycapacityisthecontrollingfactor.ValuesofthismergeareacapacityarepresentedinExhibit13 8oftheHCM2010,anddependonthenumberoffreewaylanesandonthefreewayfreespeed.RampcapacityispresentedinExhibit13 10andisafunctionoftherampfreeflowspeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodellogicsimulatesthemergingoperationsoftherampandfreewaytrafficinaccordwiththeproceduresinCh apter13oftheHCM2010.Ifcongestionresultsfromanexcessofdemandrelativetocapacity,thenthemodelallocatesserviceappropriatelytothetwoenteringtrafficstreamsandproducesLOSFconditions(TheHCMdoesnotaddressLOSFexplicitly).

HarrisNuclearPlant4 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14.3.4 IntersectionsRef:HCMChapters18,19,20,21ProceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSforapproachestointersectionsarepresentedinChapter18(signalizedintersections),Chapters19,20(un signalizedintersections)andChapter21(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelengthofthesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both2 wayandall way)andtrafficsignalcontrolledintersections.Whereintersectionsarecontrolledbyfixedtimecontrollers,trafficsignaltimingsaresettoreflectaverage(non evacuation)trafficconditions.Actuatedtrafficsignalsettingsrespondtothetime varyingdemandsofevacuationtraffictoadjusttherelativecapacitiesofthecompetingintersect ionapproaches.Themodelisalsocapableofmodelingthepresenceofmannedtrafficcontrol.Atspecificlocationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontroltoimplementmannedcontrol,themodelwilluseactuat edsignaltimingsthatreflectthepresenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleft turns,contra flowlanes)isused,thestrategyismodeledexplicitly.Whereapplicable,thelocationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendixK.ThecharacteristicsofthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsaredetailedinAppendixJ.4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimationChapter6oftheHCMisentitled,"HCMandAlternativeAnalysisTools."Thechapterdiscussestheuseofalternativetoolssuchassimulationmodelingtoevaluatetheoperationalperformanceofhighwaynetworks.AmongthereasonscitedinChap ter6toconsiderusingsimulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:"ThesystemunderstudyinvolvesagroupofdifferentfacilitiesortravelmodeswithmutualinteractionsinvokingseveralproceduralchaptersoftheHCM.Alternativetoolsareabletoanalyzethesefacilitiesasasinglesystem."ThisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacrossanareaencompassinganEPZoperatingunderevacuationconditions.Themodelutilizedforthisstudy,DYNEVII,isfurtherdescribedinAppendixC.Itisessentialtorecognizethatsimulationmodelsdonotreplicat ethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM-theyreplacetheseproceduresbydescribingthecomplexinteractionsoftrafficflowandcomputingMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeandbylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2010proceduresonlyforthepurposeofestimatingcapacity.Allsimulationmodelsmustbecalibratedproperlywithfieldobservationsthatquantifytheperformanceparametersapplicabletotheanalysisnetwork.Twoofthemostimportantof HarrisNuclearPlant4 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1theseare:(1)Freeflowspeed(FFS);and(2)saturationheadway,h sat.Thefirstoftheseisestimatedbydirectobservationduringtheroadsurvey;thesecondisestimatedusingtheconceptsoftheHCM2010,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,foreachnetworklink.

HarrisNuclearPlant4 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure4 1.FundamentalDiagrams HarrisNuclearPlant5 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIMEFederalGovernmentguidelines(seeNUREG/CR 7002)specifythattheplannerestimatethedistributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublictopreparefortheevacuationtrip.Theelapsedtimeassociatedwitheachactivityisrepresentedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesbetweenmembersofthepublic.Thequantificationoftheseactivity baseddistributionsrelieslargelyontheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.WedefinethesumofthesedistributionsofelapsedtimesastheTripGenerationTimeDistribution.5.1 BackgroundAsaPlanningBasis,wewilladoptaconservativeposture,inaccordancewithSection1.2ofNUREG/CR 7002,thatarapidlyescalatingeventattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplementedwillbeconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationTime.Wewillassume:1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuatewillbeannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesafterthesirennotification.3. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseeventswilloccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorderto:1. EstablishatemporalframeworkforestimatingtheTripGenerationdistributionintheformatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863.2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.Forexample,supposeonehourelapsesfromthesirenalerttotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Inthi scase,itisreasonabletoexpectsomedegreeofspontaneousevacuationbythepublicduringthisone hourperiod.Asaresult,thepopulationwithintheEPZwillbelowerwhentheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenal ert.Inaddition,manywillengageinpreparationactivitiestoevacuate,inanticipationthatanAdvisorywillbebroadcast.Thus,thetimeneededtocompletethemobilizationactivitiesandthenumberofpeopleremainingtoevacuatetheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,willbothbesomewhatlessthantheestimatespresentedinthisreport.Consequently,theETEpresentedinthisreportarelikelytobehigherthantheactualevacuationtime,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.Thenotificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:1. TransmittinginformationusingthealertandnotificationsystemsavailablewithintheEPZ(e.g.sirens,tonealerts,EASbroadcasts,loudspeakers).2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.ThepopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaof330squaremilesandisengagedina HarrisNuclearPlant5 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1widevarietyofactivities.Itmustbeanticipatedthatsometimewillelapsebetweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromoneindividualtothenextdependingonwherethatpersonis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowillbedirectlyinvolvedwiththeevac uationprocessmaybeoutsidetheEPZatthetimetheemergencyisdeclared.Thesepeoplemaybecommuters,shoppersandothertravelerswhoresidewithintheEPZandwhowillreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceivin gnotificationofanemergency.AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR 6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptofnotificationcanbeexpressedasadistributionreflectingthedifferentnotificationtimesfordifferentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibletodistinguishbetweendifferentpopulationgroupsanddifferentday of weekandtime of dayscenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysiren,and/ortonealertand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbyteleph one,radio,TVandword of mouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistributionoftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,butdispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.AsindicatedinSection4.1ofNUREG/CR 7002,theinformationrequiredtocomputetripgenerationtimesistypicallyobtainedfromatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.SuchasurveywasconductedinsupportofthisETEstudy.AppendixFpresentsthesurveysamplingplan,surveyinstrument,andrawsurveyresults.TheremainingdiscussionwillfocusontheapplicationofthetripgenerationdataobtainedfromthetelephonesurveytothedevelopmentoftheETEdocumentedinthisreport.

HarrisNuclearPlant5 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.2 FundamentalConsiderationsTheenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofasequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintimeandistheoutcomeofanactivity.Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybein"series"(i.e.toundertakeanactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormoreactivitiesmaytakeplaceoverthesameperiodoftime).Activitiesconductedinseriesarefunctionallydependentonthecom pletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelarefunctionallyindependentofoneanother.Therelevanteventsassociatedwiththepublic'spreparationforevacuationare:EventNumberEventDescription1Notification2AwarenessofSituation3DepartWork4ArriveHome5DepartonEvacuationTripAssociatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedbelow:Table5 1.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivitiesEventSequenceActivityDistribution12ReceiveNotification 123PreparetoLeaveWork 22,34TravelHome 32,45PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate 4 TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure5 1. AnEventisa'state'thatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome) AnActivityisa'process'thattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleavework,travelhome)Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthe'state'ofanindividual(e.g.theactivity,'travelhome'changesthestatefrom'departwork'to'arrivehome').Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedasan'EventSequence';theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothenextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages.

HarrisNuclearPlant5 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1AnemployeewholivesoutsidetheEPZwillfollowsequence(c)ofFigure5 1.AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasoneormorecommutersatwork,andwillawaittheirreturnbeforebeginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure5 1(a).AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,willfollowthesecondsequenceofFigure5 1(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.Householdswithnocommutersonweekendsorintheevening/night time,willfollowtheapplicablesequenceinFigure5 1(b).Transientswillalwaysfollowon eofthesequencesofFigure5 1(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediatelywithoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.ItisseenfromFigure5 1,thattheTripGenerationtime(i.e.thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent1toEvent5)dependsonthescenarioandwillvaryfromonehouseholdtothenext.Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicatedway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivitiesprecedingthatevent.Thatis,toestimatethetimedistributionofEvent5,wemustobtainestimatesofthetimedistributionsofallprecedingevents.Forthi sstudy,weadopttheconservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.Insomecases,assumingcertaineventsoccurstrictlysequential(forinstance,commuterreturninghomebeforebeginningpreparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,longer)estimatesofmobilizationtimes.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatatleastsomepartsoftheseeventswilloverlapformanyhouseholds,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy.

HarrisNuclearPlant5 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 1.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTripHouseholds wait for Commuters 1 Residents 12345EVENTS 1. Notification 2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters Residents 125Residents, Transients at Residence 125 (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 2 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ Residents, Transients away from Residence 124 5 123,5Return to residence, then evacuate Residents at home; transients evacuate directly 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.

2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

ACTIVITIES 1 2 Receive Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 4 Travel Home 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time HarrisNuclearPlant5 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedby"summing"thetimedistributionsofallpriorcontributingactivities.(This"summing"processisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceitisperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity12Inaccordancewiththe2012FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)RadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessProgramManual,100%ofthepopulationisnotifiedwithin45minutes.Itisassumed(basedonthepresenceofsirenswithintheEPZ)thatabout87percentofthosewithintheEPZwillbeawareoftheaccidentwithin30minuteswiththeremaindernotifiedwithinthefollowing15minutes.Thenotificationdistributionisgivenbelow:Table5 2.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublicElapsedTime(Minutes)PercentofPopulationNotified0 0.0%5 7.1%10 13.3%15 26.5%20 46.9%25 66.3%30 86.7%35 91.8%40 96.9%45 100.0%

HarrisNuclearPlant5 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity23ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelecttoshutdownfollowingnotificationandmostemployeeswouldleaveworkquickly.Commuters,whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysincefacilitiesoutsidetheEPZwouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelorfarmersre sponsibleforequipment/livestockwouldrequireadditionaltimetosecuretheirfacility.ThedistributionofActivity23showninTable5 3reflectsdataobtainedbythetelephonesurvey.Thisdistributionisalsoapplicableforresidentstoleavestores,restaurants,parksandotherlocationswithintheEPZ.Thisdi stributionisplottedinFigure5 2.Table5 3.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWork00.0%4090.0%542.9%4592.2%1063.7%5092.6%1575.4%5592.6%2079.8%6098.8%2580.6%7599.2%3088.6%90100.0%3589.2%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesamplewasreducedinsizetoincludeonlythosehouseholdswhorespondedtothisquestion.Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthedistributionofthisactivityforthe"Don'tknow"responders,iftheeventtakesplace,wouldbethesameasthoseresponderswhoprovidedestimates.

HarrisNuclearPlant5 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity34Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 4.Table5 4.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHome00.0%4087.3%59.0%4594.0%1022.4%5094.8%1534.6%5594.8%2050.8%6098.7%2557.4%7599.8%3078.5%90100.0%3580.9%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response

HarrisNuclearPlant5 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome:Activity2,45Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure5 2andlistedinTable5 5.Table5 5.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuate00.0%1515.8%3056.4%4565.3%6079.8%7587.2%9088.7%10589.2%12093.7%13597.6%15098.0%16598.0%18098.7%195100.0%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response HarrisNuclearPlant5 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 2.EvacuationMobilizationActivities0%10%20%30%40%

50%

60%70%80%

90%100%0153045607590105120135150165180195

%ofHouseholdsCompletingActivityElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)MobilizationActivitiesNotification PreparetoLeaveWork TravelHome PrepareHome HarrisNuclearPlant5 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistributionThetimedistributionsforeachofthemobilizationactivitiespresentedhereinmustbecombinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudyassumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbecompletedbeforethecurrenteven tcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturnofacommuter,thework to hometrip(Activity34)mustprecedeActivity45.Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itisnecessaryto"sum"thedistributionsassociatedwiththeseprioractivities.Thedistributionsummingalgorithmisappliedrepeatedlyasshowntoformtherequireddistribution.Asanoutcomeofthisprocedure,newtimedistributionsareformed;weassign"letter"designationstotheseintermediatedistributionstodescribetheprocedure.Table5 6presentsthesummingpr oceduretoarriveateachdesignateddistribution.Table5 6.MappingDistributionstoEventsApply"Summing"AlgorithmTo:DistributionObtainedEventDefinedDistributions1and2DistributionAEvent3DistributionsAand3DistributionBEvent4DistributionsBand4DistributionCEvent5Distributions1and4DistributionDEvent5Table5 7presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthesummingprocessiscompleted.Table5 7.DescriptionoftheDistributionsDistributionDescriptionATimedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).AlsoappliestoemployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZwholiveoutside,andtoTransientswithintheEPZ.BTimedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).CTimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).DTimedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).

HarrisNuclearPlant5 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.1 StatisticalOutliersAsalreadymentioned,someportionofthesurveyrespondentsanswer"don'tknow"tosomequestionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebaseduponactualresponses.But,itisthenatureofsurveysthatafewnumericresponsesareinconsistentwiththeoverallpatternofresults.Anexamplewouldbeacaseinwhichfor500responses,almostallofthemestimatelessthantwohoursforagivenanswer,but3say"fourhours"and4say"sixormorehours".These"outliers"mustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbedroppedfromthesample?Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternatestoconsider:1)Someresponseswithverylongtimesmaybevalid,butreflecttherealitythattherespondentreallyneedstobeclassifiedinadifferentpopulationsubgroup,baseduponspecialneeds;2)Otherresponse smaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspartoftheconsiderationofoutliers.Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobeconsidered"outliers"forthecomponentmobilizationactivities,usingamethodthatobjectivelyquantifiestheprocess.Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssinglyoringroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnonparametricmethodstoavoidthatassumption.Theliteraturecitesthatlimitedworkhasbeendonedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciplesareused:1) Itisrecognizedthattheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsareconservativeestimates,becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withnooverlapofactivities;2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome)arereviewedforoutliers,andthentheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsarecreated(seeFigure5 1,Table5 6,Table57);3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.specialneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurposeistoestimatetripgenerationpatternsforpersonalvehicles; HarrisNuclearPlant5 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.14) Toeliminateoutliers,a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromtheresponses,b) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemeannoted,c) thehistogramofthedataisinspected,andd) allvaluesgreaterthan3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,takingspecialnoteofwhethertherearegaps(categorieswithzeroentries)inthehistogramdisplay.Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowedtobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,steps"a"to"d"arerepeated.5) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,viewedasacumulativedistribution,isnotanormaldistribution.AtypicalsituationthatresultsisshownbelowinFigure5 3.

0.0%10.0%20.0%

30.0%

40.0%50.0%60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%100.0%2.5 7.512.5 17.5 22.527.532.5 37.542.547.5 52.557.567.582.597.5112.5 CumulativePercentage(%)CenterofInterval(minutes)CumulativeData CumulativeNormalFigure5 3.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution HarrisNuclearPlant5 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16) Inparticular,thecumulativedistributiondiffersfromthenormaldistributionintwokeyaspects,bothveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes: Mostoftherealdataistotheleftofthe"normal"curveabove,indicatingthatthenetworkloadsfasterforthefirst80 85%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(andearlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled; Thelast10 15%oftherealdata"tailsoff"slowerthanthecomparable"normal"curve,indicatingthatthereissignificanttrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathatisusedtodescribethemobilizationactivities,nota"normal"curvefittothedata.Onecouldconsiderotherdistributions,butusingtheshapeoftheactualdatacurveisunambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures;7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps1 6,includingpreservingthefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.Thisisdonebyusingthedatasetsanddistributionsunderdifferentscenarios(e.g.commuterreturning,nocommuterreturningineach).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,usingweightingbasedupontheprobabilitydistributionsofeachelement;Figure5 4presentsthecombinedtripgenerationdistributionsdesignatedA,CandD.Thesedistributionsarepresentedonthesametimescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisaconservativeapproach,becauseitmakesallactivitiessequential-preparationfordeparturefollowsthereturnofthecommuter,andsoforth.Inpractice,itisreasonablethatsomeoftheseactivitiesaredoneinparallel,atleasttosomeextent-forinstance,preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhilethecommuterisstillontheroad.)Themobilizationdistributionsthatresultareusedintheirtabular/graphicalformasdirectinputstolatercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationforeachorigincentroid,expressedintheformofhistograms.Thesehistograms,whichrepresentDistributionsA,CandD,properlydisplacedwithrespecttooneanother ,aretabulatedinTable5 8(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).Thefinaltimeperiod(15)is600minuteslong.Thistimeperiodisaddedtoallowtheanalysisnetworktoclear,intheeventcongestionpersistsbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Notethattherearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod.

HarrisNuclearPlant5 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.15.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGenerationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. Sub Zonescomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately2. Sub Zonescomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethe2mileregioniscleared3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,shelteredpeoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuation4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionareadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhenapproximately90%ofthoseoriginallywithinthe2mileregionevacuateacrossthe2mileregionboundary5. Non compliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%Assumptions1. TheEPZpopulationinSub Zonesbeyond5mileswillreactasdoesthepopulationinthe2to5mileregion;thatistheywillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90 thpercentileETEforthe2mileregion2. ThepopulationintheshadowregionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingtoapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstagedevacuationscenarios.Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithnoshelterdelay.3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthelimitedshelteringoptionsavailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,onabeach,oratothervenues.Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwouldprovedifficult.4. Employeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutfirstsheltering.Procedure1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2mileregionwillbeascomputedbasedupontheresultsofthetelephonesurveyandanalysis.2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedasfollows:a. Identifythe90 thpercentileevacuationtimefortheSubZonescomprisingthetwomileregion.Thisvalue,T Scen*,isobtainedfromsimulationresults.Itwillbecomethetimeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetoldtoevacuateforeachscenario.b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%ofthetotaltrip saregenerated(toaccountforshelternon compliance).

HarrisNuclearPlant5 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeT Scen*iii. FollowingtimeT Scen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenonsheltertripgenerationcurve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or2. bysteppingupto100%(ifT Scen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgenerationdistributionsfordifferentscenarios,however,thatwasnotthecaseforthissite.NUREG/CR 7002usesthestatement"approximately90 thpercentile"asthetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.ThevalueofTScen*is1:00forallscenarios.d. Note:Sinceapproximately90%ofthe2mileregion(Sub ZoneA)iscomprisedofemployeesandtransients,theTScen*valueof1:00isdictatedbythetripgenerationofthesepopulationgroupsasopposedtothetripgenerationofresidents.3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:a. Residentswithreturningcommutersb. ResidentswithoutreturningcommutersFigure5 5presentsthestagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswithandwithoutreturningcommutersandemployees/transients;the90 thpercentiletwo mileevacuationtimeisapproximately1hourforallscenarios.Atthe90 thpercentileevacuationtime,20%ofthepopulation(whonormallywouldhavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesforanun stagedevacuation)advisedtoshelterhasneverthelessdepartedthearea.Thesepeopledonotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory.Alsoincludedontheplotarethetripgenerationdistributionsforthesegroupsasappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.Sincethe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeoccursbeforetheendofthetripgenerationtime,aftertheshelteredregionisadvisedtoevacuate,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisestomeetthebalanceofthenonstagedtripgenerationdistribution.FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.AfterT Scen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtripgenerationdistribution.Table5 9providesthetripgenerationhistogramsforstagedevacuation.5.4.3 TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreasAppendix2toAnnexGoftheNorthCarolinaRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlan(January2012)establishesthebasicproceduresandorganizationalresponsibilitiesfortheemergencyalertandnotificationonHarrisandJordanLakes,theHaw,DeepandCapeFearRiversinadditiontoassociatedrecreationalsites,surroundingareasandotherfacilitieswithinthe10 mileEPZ.IndividualsonJordanLake,UpperCapeFear,DeepandHawRiverswillbenotifiedbytheChatha mCountyEmergencyManagementOffice,assistedbytheMoncureFireDepartment,NCWildlifeResourcesCommission,NCDepartmentofEnvironmentandNaturalResources(DENR),UnitedStatesArmyCorpsofEngineers(USACE)fromB.EverettJordanLakeandDamfieldofficeandtheCommunicationsandLogisticsSectionandSpecial HarrisNuclearPlant5 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Operations/AviationUnitoftheNCHighwayPatrol.IndividualsonHarrisLakewillbenotifiedbytheWakeCountyEmergencyManagement,assistedbytheWakeCountySheriff'sDepartment,CommunicationsandLogisticsSectionandSpecialOperations/AviationUnitoftheNCHighwayPatrol,ChathamCountyEmergencyManagementOfficeandNCWildlifeResourcesCommission.IndividualsontheLowerCapeFearRiverwillbenotifiedbyHarnettCountyEmergencyManagement,assistedbytheCommunicationsandLogisticsSectionandSpecialOperations/AviationUnitoftheNCHighwayPatrol.AsindicatedinTable5 2,thisstudyassumes100%notificationin45minuteswhichisconsistentwiththeFEMAREPManual.Table5 8indicatesthatalltransientswillhavemobilizedwithin1hour45minutes.Itisassumedthatthistimeframeissufficienttimeforboaters,campersan dothertransientstoreturntotheirvehiclesorlodgingfacilitiesandbegintheirevacuationtrip.

HarrisNuclearPlant5 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 8.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUn stagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriodEmployees(DistributionA)Transients(DistributionA)ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)1157%7%0%1%21535%35%0%9%31534%34%2%24%41513%13%8%24%5155%5%15%14%6154%4%18%10%7152%2%15%5%8150%0%13%2%9150%0%8%3%10300%0%10%5%11300%0%6%1%12300%0%3%2%13150%0%1%0%14300%0%1%0%156000%0%0%0%NOTE: Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure1 2)usingDistributionCforgoodweather. SpecialeventvehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA.

HarrisNuclearPlant5 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 4.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270

%ofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuatingAdvisory(min)TripGenerationDistributions Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommuters HarrisNuclearPlant5 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table5 9.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriod*ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)1150%0%2150%2%3150%5%4152%5%51523%60%61518%10%71515%5%81513%2%9158%3%103010%5%11306%1%12303%2%13151%0%14301%0%156000%0%*TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable5 8)isthesameforUn stagedandStagedEvacuation.

HarrisNuclearPlant5 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure5 5.ComparisonofStagedandUn stagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe2to5MileRegion0 20 40 60 801000306090120150180210240270

%ofPopulationBeginningEvacuationTripElapsedTimefromEvacuatingAdvisory(min)StagedandUnstagedEvacuationTripGeneration Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersStagedResidentswithCommutersStagedResidentswithnoCommuters HarrisNuclearPlant6 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.16 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOSAnevacuation"case"definesacombinationofEvacuationRegionandEvacuationScenario.Thedefinitionsof"Region"and"Scenario"areasfollows:RegionAgroupingofcontiguousevacuatingSub Zonesthatformseithera"keyhole"sector basedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedinresponsetoaradiologicalemergenc y.ScenarioAcombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachoftheaffectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.Adescriptionofeachscenarioisprovidedbelow:1. SummerMidweekMidday(normal):ThisscenariorepresentsatypicalnormalweatherdaytimeperiodwhenpermanentresidentsaregenerallydispersedwithintheEPZperformingdailyactivitiesandmajorworkplacesareattypicaldaytimelevels.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;summerschoolisinsession;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerdaytimelevels.2. SummerMidweekMidday(adverse):ThisscenariorepresentsanadverseweatherdaytimeperiodwhenpermanentresidentsaregenerallydispersedwithintheEPZperformingdailyactivitiesandmajorworkplacesareattypicaldaytimelevels.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;summerschoolsareinsession;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerdaytimelevels.3. SummerWeekendMidday(normal):ThisscenariorepresentsatypicalnormalweatherweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZperformingtypicalsummerweekendactivities.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathomeorwiththeirfamilies;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweek endlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerweekendlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerweekendlevels.4. SummerWeekendMidday(adverse):Thisscenariorepresentsanadverse(rain)weatherweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZperformingtypicalsummerweekendactivities.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathomeorwiththeirfamilies;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweekendlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataverage HarrisNuclearPlant6 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1summerweekendlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummerweekendlevels.5. SummerMidweekandWeekendEvening(normal):ThisscenariorepresentsatypicalnormalweathermidweekandweekendeveningperiodwhenpermanentresidentsaregenerallyathomewithfewerdispersedwithintheEPZperformingeveningactivities.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicaleveninglevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragesummerlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareataveragesummereveninglevels.Externaltrafficisreduced.6. WinterMidweekMidday(normal):Thisscenariorepresent satypicalnormalweatherweekdayperiodduringthewinterwhenschoolisinsessionandtheworkforceisatafulldaytimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;studentswillevacuatedirectlyfromtheschools;workplacesar efullystaffedattypicaldaytimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterdaytimelevels.7. WinterMidweekMidday(adverse):Thisscenariorepresentsanadverse(rain)weatherweekdayperiodduringthewinterwhenschoolisinsessionandthewor kforceisatafulldaytimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;studentswillevacuatedirectlyfromtheschools;workplacesarefullystaffedattypicaldaytimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterdaytimelevels.8. WinterMidweekMidday(adverse):Thisscenariorepresentsanadverse(ice)weatherweekdayperiodduringthewinterwhenschoolisinsessionandtheworkforceisatafulldaytimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;studentswillevacuatedirectlyfromtheschools;workplacesar efullystaffedattypicaldaytimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterdaytimelevels.9. WinterWeekendMidday(normal):ThisscenarioreflectsatypicalnormalweatherwinterweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZ,andtheworkforceisataweekendlevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweek endlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterweekendlevelsandrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterweekendlevels.10. WinterWeekendMidday(adverse):Thisscenarioreflectsanadverse(rain)weatherwinterweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebothathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZ,andtheworkforceisataweek endlevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence; HarrisNuclearPlant6 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweekendlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterweekendlevelsandrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterweekendlevels.11. WinterWeekendMidday(adverse):Thisscenarioreflectsanadverse(ice)weatherwinterweekendperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarebot hathomeanddispersedwithintheEPZ,andtheworkforceisataweekendlevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalweekendlevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterweekendlevelsandrecreationalfacilitiesareatwinterweekendlevels.12. WinterMidweekandWeekendEvening(normal):Thisscenarioreflectsatypicalnormalmidweekandweekendeveningperiodwhenpermanentresidentsarehomeandtheworkforceisatanighttimelevel.Thisscenarioincludesassumptionsthatpermanentresidentswillevacuatefromtheirplaceofresidence;schoolsareclosedandstudentsareathome;workplacesarestaffedattypicalnighttimelevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedataveragewinterlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatwintereveninglevels.13. SpecialEvent,SummerWeekendEvening(normal):ThisscenarioreflectsaspecialeventactivitywherepeaktouristpopulationsarepresentwithintheEPZ.AssumptionsmadeareindicatedinSection3.7.ThepopulationattendingtheeventisdevelopedconsideringbothtransientsandpermanentEPZresidentswhoareinattendancetoavoiddouble countingresidents.Theremainingpermanentresidentpercentage,thosenotattendingtheevent,willbeassumedtoevacuatefromtheirresidence.Workplaceswillbestaffedattypicallevels;hotelandmotelfacilitiesareoccupiedatpeakspecialeventlevels;andrecreationalfacilitiesareatappropriatelevelsbasedontheeventandtimeofyear.14. RoadwayImpact,SummerMidweekMidday(normal):Theintentofthisscenarioistorepresentavarietyofconditionsthatmayimpactaroadwaysegmentsuchasconstruction,flooding,vehicleaccidents,etc.Theroadwayimpactscenarioassumedthatduringasummermidweeknormalweatherdaytimescenario,onelaneonUS 1andonelaneonUS 64wasclosedthroughoutth eEPZ.Atotalof36RegionsweredefinedwhichencompassallthegroupingsofSubZonesconsidered.TheseRegionsaredefinedinTable6 1.TheSub ZoneconfigurationsareidentifiedinFigure6 1.Eachkeyholesector basedareaconsistsofacentralcirclecenteredatthepowerplant,andthreeadjoiningsectors,eachwithacentralangleof22.5degrees,asperNUREG/CR 7002guidance.Thecentralsectorcoincideswiththewinddirection.Thesesectorsextendto5milesfromtheplant(RegionsR04throughR12)ortotheEPZboundary(RegionsR13throughR26).RegionsR01,R02andR03representevacuationsofcircularareaswithradiiof2,5and10miles,respectively.RegionsR27throughR36areidenticaltoRegionsR02andR04throughR12,respectively;however,thoseSub Zonesbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%ofthe2 milere gion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.

HarrisNuclearPlant6 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Atotalof14ScenarioswereevaluatedforallRegions.Thus,thereareatotalof36x14=504evacuationcases.Table6 2providesisadescriptionofallScenarios.Eachcombinationofregionandscenarioimpliesaspecificpopulationtobeevacuated.ThepopulationdataprovidedinSection3andAppendixEarepeakpopulationvalu es.Table6 3presentsthepercentageofeachpopulationgroupestimatedtoevacuateforeachscenario.Table6 4presentsthevehiclecountsforeachscenarioforanevacuationofRegionR03-theentireEPZ.ThepopulationandvehicleestimatespresentedinSection3andAppendixEarepeakvalues.Thesepeakvaluesareadjusteddependingonthescenarioandregionbeingconsidered,usingscenarioandregionspecificpercentages,suchthattheaveragepopulationisconsideredforeachevacuationcase.ThescenariopercentagesarepresentedinTable6 3,whiletheregionalpercentagesareprovidedinTableH 1.Th epercentagespresentedinTable6 3weredeterminedasfollows:Thenumberofresidentswithcommutersduringtheweek(whenworkforceisatitspeak)isequaltotheproductof68%(thenumberofhouseholdswithatleastonecommuter)and41%(thenumberofhouseholdswithacommutertha twouldawaitthereturnofthecommuterpriortoevacuating).Seeassumption3inSection2.3.Itisestimatedforweekendandeveningscenariosthat10%ofhouseholdswithreturningcommuterswillhaveacommuteratworkduringthosetimes.Employmen tisassumedtobeatitspeakduringthewinter,midweek,middayscenarios.Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedontheestimationthat50%oftheemployeescommutingintotheEPZwillbeonvacationforaweekduringtheapproximate12weeksofsummer.Itisfurtherestimatedthatthosetakingvacationwillbeuniformlydispersedthroughoutthesummerwithapproximately4%ofemployeesvacationingeachweek.Itisfurtherestimatedthatonly10%oftheemployeesareworkingintheeveningsandduringtheweekends.Transientactivityisestimatedtobeatitspeakduringsummerweeken dsandless(65%)duringtheweek.AsshowninAppendixE,therearemanycampgroundsandlodgingfacilitiesofferingovernightaccommodationsintheEPZ,offsetbyothertransientfacilitiesinwhicheveninguseisminimal(parksandcommunitycenters);thus,eveningtransientactivityisestimatedtobe50%forsummerand20%fo rwinter.Transientactivityonwinterweekendsisestimatedtobe40%andless(25%)duringtheweek.AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable6 3,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusingabaseof20%(seeassumption5inSection2.2);toincludetheemployeeswithintheshadowregionwhomaychoosetoevacuate,thevoluntaryevacuationismultipliedbyascenario specificproportionofemployeestopermanentresidentsintheshadowregion.Forexample,usingthevaluesprovidedinTable6 4forScenario1,theshadowpercentageiscomputedasfollows:

HarrisNuclearPlant6 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Onespecialevent-FourthofJulyonJordanLake-wasconsideredasScenario13.Thus,thespecialeventtrafficis100%evacuatedforScenario13,and0%forallotherscenarios.Basedondataprovidedbycountyemergencymanagementdepartments,summerschoolenrollmentisapproximately28%ofenrollmentduringtheregularschoolyearformidweek ,middayscenarios.Schoolisnotinsessionduringweekendsandevenings,thusnobusesforschoolchildrenareneededunderthosecircumstances.AsdiscussedinSection7,schoolsareinsessionduringthewinterseason,midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillbeneededunderthosecircumstances.Transitbusesforthetransit dependentpopulationaresetto100%forallscenariosasitisassumedthatthetransit dependentpopulationispresentintheEPZatalltimes.Externaltrafficisestimatedtobereducedby60%duringeveningscenariosandis100%forallotherscenarios.

HarrisNuclearPlant6 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 1.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR012 MileRadius2 MileRadiusxR025 MileRadius5 MileRadiusxxxxxxR03FullEPZ10 MileRadiusxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR04NNW,N327°010°xxxR05NNE,NE011°056°xxR06ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR07SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR08SSW192°214°xxR09SW,WSW215°259°xxxR10260°281°xxR11W,WNW282°304°xxxR12NW305°326°xxEvacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR13N348°034°xxxxxxxxR14NNExxxxxxxxxR15NExxxxxxxxR16ENE035°079°xxxxxxxxxR17E,ESE080°101°xxxxxxxxR18102°124°xxxxxxxR19SE125°146°xxxxxxxxR20SSE147°191°xxxxxxxxxR21S,SSWxxxxxxxxR22192°236°xxxxxxxR23SW237°259°xxxxxxxxR24WSW,WxxxxxxxxxR25WNW260°326°xxxxxxxxxR26NW,NNW327°347°xxxxxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR275 MileRadiusxxxxxxR28NNW,N327°010°xxxR29NNE,NE011°056°xxR30ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR31SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR32SSW192°214°xxR33SW,WSW215°259°xxxR34260°281°xxR35W,WNW282°304°xxxR36NW305°326°xxShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateSub Zone(s)Shelter in PlaceSub Zone(s)Evacuate HarrisNuclearPlant6 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure6 1.HNPEPZSubZones HarrisNuclearPlant6 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 2.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason 1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13SummerWeekendEveningGoodFourthofJulyonJordanLake14SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosuresonUS 1andUS 641Wintermeansthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summermeansthatschoolisnotinsession.

HarrisNuclearPlant6 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 3.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenariosScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployees TransientsShadowSpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTraffic128%72%96%65%21%0%28%100%100%228%72%96%65%21%0%28%100%100%33%97%10%100%20%0%0%100%100%43%97%10%100%20%0%0%100%100%53%97%10%50%20%0%0%100%40%628%72%100%25%21%0%100%100%100%728%72%100%25%21%0%100%100%100%828%72%100%25%21%0%100%100%100%93%97%10%40%20%0%0%100%100%103%97%10%40%20%0%0%100%100%113%97%10%40%20%0%0%100%100%123%97%10%20%20%0%0%100%40%133%97%10%50%20%100%0%100%40%1428%72%96%65%21%0%28%100%100%ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters.......HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters..HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.Employees.................................................EPZemployeeswh oliveoutsidetheEPZTransients..................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.Shadow......................................................Residentsandemployeesintheshadowregion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisforthevaluesshownisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.SpecialEvents............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.SchoolandTransitBuses............................Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschoolsandtransitdependentpeople(1busisequivalentto2passengervehicles).ExternalThroughTraffic.............................Trafficoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbysecurityroadblocks30minutesaftertheevacuationbegins.

HarrisNuclearPlant6 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table6 4.VehicleEstimatesbyScenarioScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployeesTransientsShadow SpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTrafficTotalScenarioVehicles 114,11536,5243,1142,85020,69702492286,96384,740214,11536,5243,1142,85020,69702492286,96384,74031,41249,2273244,38419,623002286,96382,16141,41249,2273244,38419,623002286,96382,16151,41249,2273242,19219,623002282,78575,791614,11536,5243,2441,09620,74708902286,96383,807714,11536,5243,2441,09620,74708902286,96383,807814,11536,5243,2441,09620,74708902286,96383,80791,41249,2273241,75419,623002286,96379,531101,41249,2273241,75419,623002286,96379,531111,41249,2273241,75419,623002286,96379,531121,41249,22732487719,623002282,78574,476131,41249,2273242,19219,6232,03302282,78577,8241414,11536,5243,1142,85020,69702492286,96384,740Note:VehicleestimatesareforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)

HarrisNuclearPlant7 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)ThissectionpresentstheETEresultsofthecomputeranalysesusingtheDYNEVIISystemdescribedinAppendicesB,CandD.Theseresultscover36regionswithintheHNPEPZandthe14EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.TheETEforallEvacuatio nCasesarepresentedinTable7 1andTable7 2.ThesetablespresenttheestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegionsforallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2 mileregioninbothstagedandunstagedregionsarepresentedinTable7 3andTabl e7 4.Table7 5definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.ThetabulatedvaluesofETEareobtainedfromtheDYNEVIISystemoutputswhicharegeneratedat5 minuteintervals.7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation"Voluntaryevacuees"arepeoplewithintheEPZinSub ZonesforwhichanAdvisorytoEvacuatehasnotbeenissued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate."Shadowevacuation"isthevolunt aryoutwardmovementofsomepeoplefromtheShadowRegion(outsidetheEPZ)forwhomnoprotectiveactionrecommendationhasbeenissued.Bothvoluntaryandshadowevacuationsareassumedtotakeplaceoverthesametimeframeastheevacuationfromwithinth eimpactedEvacuationRegion.TheETEfortheHNPEPZaddressestheissueofvoluntaryevacueesinthemannershowninFigure7 1.WithintheEPZ,20percentofpermanentresidentslocatedinSub Zonesoutsideoftheevacuationregionwhoarenotadvisedtoevacuate,areassumedtoelecttoevacuate.Similarly,itisassumedtha t20percentofthosepermanentresidentsintheShadowRegionwillchoosetoleavethearea.Figure7 2presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.ThisregionextendsradiallyfromtheplanttocoveraregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15miles.ThepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesintheShadowRegionwereestimatedusingthesamemethodologythatwasusedforpermanentresidentswithintheEPZ(seeSection3.1).AsdiscussedinSection3.2,itisestimatedthatatotalof198,090peopleresideintheShadowRegion;20percentofthemwouldevacuate.SeeTable6 4fo rthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion(includingexternalexternaltraffic),travelingawayfromtheHNPlocation,hasthepotentialforimpedingev acuatingvehiclesfromwithintheEvacuationRegion.AllETEcalculationsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.7.2 StagedEvacuationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR 7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. Sub Zonescomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.

HarrisNuclearPlant7 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.12. Sub Zonescomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterin placewhilethetwomileregioniscleared.3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,peoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter.4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionisadvisedtoevacuatewhenapproximately90%ofth e2mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe2mileregionboundary.5. Non compliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%.SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuationFigure7 3throughFigure7 8illustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestionthatariseforthecasewhentheentireEPZ(RegionR03)isadvisedtoevacuateduringthesummer,midweek,middayperiodundergoodweatherconditions(Scenario1).Trafficcongestion,asthetermisusedhere,isdefinedasLevelofService(LOS)F.LOSFisdefinedasfollows(HCM2010,page5 5):TheHCMus esLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demandexceedscapacity)orhaveexceededaspecifiedservicemeasurevalue,orcombinationofservicemeasurevalues,thatmostuserswouldconsiderunsatisfactory.However ,particularlyforplanningapplicationswheredifferentalternativesmaybecompared,analystsmaybeinterestedinknowingjusthowbadtheLOSFconditionis.Severalmeasuresareavailabletodescribeindividually,orincombination,theseverityofaLOSFcondition:*Demand to capacityratiosdescribetheextenttowhichcapacityisexceededduringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%,etc.);*DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,3h);and*SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.Theseincludemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecificintersectionapproachesorsystemelementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedintheseFiguresbyathickredline;allothersarelightlyindicated.Congestiondevelopsrapidlyaroundconcentrationsofpopulationandtrafficbottlenecks.Figure7 3displayscon gestionpatternswithinthestudyareaat30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE).Thereistrafficvolumeineachofthethreemajorpopulationcenters(Apex,Fuquay VarinaandHollySprings)intheEPZ,asindicatedbytheprevalen ceofcoloredlinks.Thisistobeexpectedasthepopulationdensityintheseareasishighandtherearemanyvehiclesbeginningtheirevacuationtripsfromthesecities.Theonly HarrisNuclearPlant7 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1roadwaysexperiencingpronouncedtrafficcongestion(LOSF)atthistimeareHollySpringsRdnorthbound,US 64eastboundandLauraDuncanRdnorthboundattheintersectionofthesetworoads,US 64westboundandBeaverCreekRdnorthbound(transientsevacuatingfromJordanLakeStateRecreationArea)attheintersectionofthesetworoads,Par ker'sCreekRecreationAreaRdsouthboundapproachtoUS 64andSeaforthRecreationAreaRdnorthboundapproachtoUS 64(transientsevacuatingfromJordanLake).At1houraftertheATE,Figure7 4indicatesthattrafficcongestionwithinthestudyareahasintensified.AllofthemajorevacuationroutesservicingthethreepopulationcentersareexperiencingLOSFconditions.SeveralroadsintheShadowRegionarealsooperatingatLOSF,includingUS 401southboundleavingFuquay Varina,Ten TenRdeastboundleavingHollySprings,NC 55northboundleavingApex,andUS 64westboundinPittsboro.Notethatallroadwaysinthe2and5 MileRegion sarenotcongested(LOSA)atthistime.At1hourand30minutesaftertheATE,asshowninFigure7 5,trafficcongestioninthestudyareapeaks.Allroutesleavingthethreepopulationcentersareheavilycongested.Allroadswhichhaveinterchang eswithUS 1inWakeCountyarecongested.SeveralroadsintheShadowRegionareoperatingatLOSF,includingNC 55northbound,US 401southbound,Ten TenRdeastbound,andPennyRdeastbound.Thesecongestionpatternsreflectthelargenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromthethreepopulationcent erstryingtoaccessthemajorevacuationroutes-US 1,US 64,US 401,I 40,I 440andI 540-leavingthearea.Figure7 6displaysthecongestionpatternsat2hoursand30minutesaftertheATE.TrafficcongestioninApexandHollySpringsisdissipating,withonlyafewroutesoperatingatLOSF.Trafficcong estioninFuquay Varinaisalsodissipating,thoughallmajorevacuationroutesinthecityarestilloperatingatLOSF.CongestionintheShadowRegionisalsodissipating-Ten TenRdeastboundisclearing.LOSFconditionsexistatthistimealongHollySpringsRd/WalnutStattheinterchangewithUS 1/US 64,OptimistFarmRdeastbound,US 401southbound,LauraDuncanRdnorthboundandOldRaleighRdnorthbound.Overthenexthour,trafficcongestionclearsinApexandHollySprings.Figure7 7displaysthecongestionpatternsat3hoursand25minutesaftertheATE.ThelastofthecongestionintheEPZisinFuquay VarinaattheintersectionsofJuddParkwayandSunsetLakeRdwithUS 401.US 401isoperatingatLOSFsouthboundintheShadowRe gion,andLOSBnorthbound.HollySpringsRd/WalnutStattheinterchangewithUS 1/US 64isstilloperatingatLOSFintheShadowRegion.Finally,Figur e7 8displaysastudyareathatisessentiallyclearofevacuatingtraffic,at4hoursaftertheATE,whichis30minutespriortothecompletionofthetrip generation(mobilization)time.Thelastofthecongestioninth eEPZ,inFuquay Varina,clearsat3hoursand30minutesaftertheATE.

HarrisNuclearPlant7 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.4 EvacuationRatesEvacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure7 9throughFigure7 22.TheseFiguresindicatetherateatwhichtrafficflowsoutoftheindicatedareasforthecaseofanevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR03)undertheindicatedconditions.Onefigureispresentedforeachscenarioco nsidered.AsindicatedinFigure7 9,thereistypicallyalong"tail"tothesedistributions.Vehiclesbegintoevacuateanareaslowlyatfirst,aspeoplerespondtotheATEatdifferentrates.Thentrafficdemandbuildsrapidly(slopesofcurvesincrease).Whenthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.Thisdeclineinaggregateflowrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythesecurvesflatteningandgraduallybecominghorizontal.Ideally,itwouldbedesirabletofullysaturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatallwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandallwillclearatthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeunti ltheend-thusminimizingevacuationtime.Inreality,thisidealisgenerallyunattainablereflectingthespatialvariationinpopulationdensity,mobilizationratesandinhighwaycapacityovertheEPZ.7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)ResultsTable7 1throughTable7 2presenttheETEvaluesforall36Evacua tionRegionsandall14EvacuationScenarios.Table7 3throughTable7 4presenttheETEvaluesforthe2 Mileregionforbothstagedandun stagedkeyholeregionsdownwindto5miles.Theyareorganizedasfollows:TableContents 7 1ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 2ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.7 3ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.7 4ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinthe2 mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.

HarrisNuclearPlant7 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TheanimationsnapshotsdescribedabovereflecttheETEstatisticsfortheconcurrent(un staged)evacuationscenariosandregions,whicharedisplayedinFigure7 3throughFigure7 8.Allofthecongestionislocatedbeyondthe5 mileradius;thisisreflectedintheETEstatistics: The2 mileRegion(R01)consistsofmorethan90%employeesandtransients.Thereisnocongestionwithinthisregion,whichmeansthatETEisdictatedbymobilizationti me.Assuch,the90 thpercentileETEforthisregionisequaltothe90 thpercentilemobilizationtimeforemployeesandtransients-about1:00(hr:min)onaverage. The5 mileRegion(R02)alsohasnocongestion,buthasmanymoreresidentvehiclesthanR01,whichincreasesthemobilizationtime(seeFigure5 4-mobilizationtimeislongerforresidentsthanforemployeesandtransients).The90 thpercentileETEforRegionR02isabout1:45onaverage. The90 thpercentileETEforRegionsR03(fullEPZ)andR13-R26(whichextendtotheEPZboundary)areapproximatelyanhourlonger,onaverage,duetothecongestionbeyondthe5 mileradius.The100 thpercentileETEforallRegionsandforallScenariosaretheequaltomobilizationtime.ThisfactimpliesthatthecongestionwithintheEPZdissipatespriortotheendofmobilization,asisdisplayedinFigure7 8.ComparisonofScenarios5and13inTable7 1indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-Fo urthofJulyfireworksonJordanLake-doesnotmateriallyimpactthe90 thpercentileETE.TheETEincreasesbyatmost15minutes.AsshowninFigure7 3throughFigure7 8anddiscussedinSection7.3,thecongestionwithintheEPZispredominantlytotheeastoftheplantnearthemajorpopulationcenters.Theadditional2,033vehiclespresentforthespecialeventarelocatedwes toftheplantandpredominantlyevacuatewestonUS 64.ThereissufficientadditionalcapacityonUS 64toservicetheseadditionalvehicles,whichexplainswhyETEarenotmateriallyaffected.ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable7 1indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-onelanenorthboundonUS 1fromjusteastoftheinterchangewithNewHillHollemanRd(Exit89)totheinterch angewithI 40(Exit1A)andonelaneeastboundonUS 64fromNewHillOliveChapelRd/NC 751totheinterchangewithI 40(Exit1A)-causesatmosta10minuteincreaseinETE.Thisisnotamateri alchange.AsshowninFigure7 3throughFigure7 8,US 1northboundisoperatingbelowcapacity(LOSAthroughD),whilemostofUS 64eastboundisalsooperatingbelowcapacity(LOSFatsomesignalizedintersections).TherampstoUS 1havelimitedcapacityandthusmeterthetrafficenteringthemainthoroughfareofUS 1.Asaresult,thereisunusedcapacityonUS 1forallnon roadwayimpactscenarios.Thus,closingalanedoesnothaveanimpact.Inaddition,thereareotheralternateroutes-mostnotablyNC 55northboundandNC 540Tolleastboundwhichhaveavailablecapacity.SomevehiclesrerouteontotheseroadwaysasaresultofthelaneclosuresonUS 1andUS 64,offsettinganysubstantialincreaseinETE.NUREG/CR 7002recommendsthattheETEstudyconsiderpotentialenhancementsthatcouldimproveETE.AccordingtotheInstituteofNuclearPowerOperations(INPO)timelineforthe HarrisNuclearPlant7 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1March2011accidentattheFukushimaDaiichiPowerStation,nearly18hourselapsedbetweenthelossofpoweratthesiteandthefirstreleasetotheatmosphere.The90 thpercentileETEforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)islessthan4hoursforallscenarios.ThepossiblecountermeasurestoreduceETEare: Reducethenumberofvehiclesontheroadbyeducatingthepublictousefewervehiclestoevacuate.Thisisverydifficulttoimplementasevacueesareunlikelytoleaveasignificanteconomicassetsuchasapersonalvehiclebehind. Usecontrafloworreverse laning.Thistechniqueissomanpowerandequipmentintensive,90percentofevacueeswillhavealreadylefttheEPZbythetimecontraflowisestablished.Assuch,ETEbenefitswouldbeminimal.Also,contraflowisasignificantliabilityinth atvehiclesaretravelingthewrongwayonaroad.Mostoffsiteagenciesarehesitanttousecontraflowforthisreasonalone. Identifyspecialtreatmentsatcriticalintersections-i.e.ifnorthboundandeastboundarebothviableevacuationdirectionsfromtheplant,conesandbarricadescouldbeusedtochannelizetheintersectionsuchthatonetrafficstreamisdirectednorthboundandtheothereastboundtoeliminateanyvehicleconflictattheintersectionandkeeptheintersectionflowingcontinuously.ThisisalsomanpowerandequipmentdependentandwillhavelittleimpactonETE.7.6 StagedEvacuationResultsTable7 3andTable7 4presentacomparisonoftheETEcompiledfortheconcurrent(un staged)andstagedevacuationstudies.NotethatRegionsR27throughR36arethesamegeographicareasasRegionsR02andR04throughR12,respectively.Todeterminewhetherthestagedevacuationstrategyisworthyofconsideration,onemustshowthattheETEforthe2mil eregioncanbereducedwithoutsignificantlyaffectingtheregionbetween2milesand5miles.Inallcases,asshowninthesetables,theETEforthe2mileregionisunchangedwhenastagedevacuationisimplemented.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,thereisnocongestionwithinthe2and5 mileregions.Inaddition,thecongestionbeyond5milesdoesnotextendupstreamtotheextentthatitpenetratestowithin2or5milesoftheHNP.Consequently,evacueesfromwithinthe2 mileregionareunimpeded.Therefore,stagingtheevacuati onprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregion.Whilefailingtoprovideassistancetoevacueesfromwithin2milesoftheHPP,stagingproducesanegativeimpactontheETEforthoseevacuatingfromwithinthe5 milearea.AcomparisonofETEbetweenRegionsR02andR04throughR12withRegionsR27throughR36revealsthatstagingretardsthe90 thpercentileevacuationtimeforthoseinthe2to5 mileareaby5minutes(seeTable7 1)forsomecases.ThisextendingofETEisduetothedelayinbeginningtheevacuationtrip,experiencedbythosewhoshelter.Insummary,thestagedevacuationoptionprovidesnobenefitsandadverselyimpactssomeevacueeslocatedbeyond2milesfromtheHNP.

HarrisNuclearPlant7 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.17.7 GuidanceonUsingETETablesTheuserfirstdeterminesthepercentileofpopulationforwhichtheETEissought(TheNRCguidancecallsforthe90 thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosenTablemaythenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:1. IdentifytheapplicableScenario:* Season Summer Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)* DayofWeek Midweek Weekend* TimeofDay Midday Evening* WeatherCondition GoodWeather Rain Ice* SpecialEven t FourthofJulyonJordanLake* RoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonUS 1andUS 64* EvacuationStaging No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsideredWhiletheseScenariosaredesigned,inaggregat e,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:* Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(7)and(10)forrainapply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andicearenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(8)and(11)foriceapply.* Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows: Summerassumesthatpublicschoolsarenotinsession. Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession.* TimeofDay:Middayimpliesthetimeoverwhichmostcommutersareatworkoraretravellingto/fromwork.2. WiththedesiredpercentileETEandScenarioidentified,nowidentifytheEvacuationRegion:* Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewind HarrisNuclearPlant7 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1direction).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcompassorientation-fromN,NNE,NE-orindegrees.* DeterminethedistancethattheEvacuationRegionwillextendfromthenuclearpowerplant.TheapplicabledistancesandtheirassociatedcandidateRegionsaregivenbelow: 2Miles(RegionR01) To5Miles(RegionR02,R04throughR12) ToEPZBoundary(RegionsR03,R13throughR26)* EnterTable7 5andidentifytheap plicablegroupofcandidateRegionsbasedonthedistancethattheselectedRegionextendsfromtheHNP.SelecttheEvacuationRegionidentifierinthatrow,basedontheazimuthdirectionofth eplume,fromthefirstcolumnoftheTable.3. DeterminetheETETablebasedonthepercentileselected.Then,fortheScenarioidentifiedinStep1andtheRegionidentifiedinStep2,proceedasfollows:* ThecolumnsofTable7 1arelabeledwiththeScenarionumbers.IdentifythepropercolumnintheselectedTableusingtheScenarionumberdefinedinStep1.* IdentifytherowinthistablethatprovidesETEvaluesfortheRegionidentifiedinStep2.* TheuniquedatacelldefinedbythecolumnandrowsodeterminedcontainsthedesiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:Minutes

.

HarrisNuclearPlant7 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ExampleItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:* Sunday,August10 that4:00AM.* Itisraining.* Winddirectionisfromthe180.* Windspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea5 mileradiusanddownwindto10miles(toEPZboundary).* ThedesiredETEisthatvalueneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopul ationfromwithintheimpactedRegion.* Astagedevacuationisnotdesired.Table7 1isapplicablebecausethe90 thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable7 1,itisseenthatthereisnomatchforthesedescriptors.However,theclarificationgivenaboveassignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.2. EnterTable7 5andlocatetheRegiondescribedas"Evacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary"forwinddirectionfrom180andreadRegionR20inthefirstcolumnofthatrow.3. EnterTable7 1tolocatethedatacellcontainingthevalueofETEforScenario4andRegionR20.Thisdatace llisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR20;itcontainstheETEvalueof2:25.

HarrisNuclearPlant7 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 1.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R021:451:451:301:301:451:501:501:501:351:351:351:551:401:45R032:503:002:402:502:402:503:003:102:402:503:052:402:402:552 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR041:351:351:301:301:451:401:401:401:351:351:351:551:451:35R051:301:301:301:301:451:301:351:351:351:351:351:501:451:30R061:201:201:151:151:301:201:201:201:151:151:151:401:251:20R071:301:301:201:201:351:301:301:301:201:201:201:401:301:30R081:451:451:351:351:451:451:451:451:351:351:351:501:451:45R092:002:001:451:451:552:052:052:051:501:501:502:001:552:00R101:501:501:401:401:501:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:501:50R111:551:551:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:55R121:201:201:151:151:251:201:201:201:151:151:151:301:251:205 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR132:002:001:401:401:552:002:002:001:451:451:452:001:452:00R142:002:001:401:401:552:052:052:051:451:451:452:001:502:00R151:551:551:351:351:501:551:551:551:401:401:402:001:451:55R161:551:551:351:351:502:002:002:001:451:451:452:001:401:55R171:501:501:351:351:502:002:002:001:401:401:402:001:401:50R181:501:501:301:301:451:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:401:50R191:501:501:351:351:451:551:551:551:401:401:401:551:401:50R202:252:302:202:252:202:302:352:452:202:252:302:202:202:30R212:252:352:202:252:202:302:352:402:252:252:302:202:202:30R222:252:352:202:252:202:302:352:402:252:252:302:202:202:30R232:352:402:302:352:302:352:402:502:302:352:402:302:302:40 HarrisNuclearPlant7 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactR242:402:552:352:452:352:452:553:052:352:452:552:352:352:50R252:553:152:503:052:453:003:153:302:503:003:202:452:503:00R263:003:202:553:152:503:053:203:402:553:103:302:502:553:00StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR271:451:451:301:301:451:501:501:501:351:351:351:551:401:45R281:351:351:301:301:451:401:401:401:351:351:351:551:451:35R291:301:301:301:301:451:351:351:351:351:351:351:501:451:30R301:201:201:201:201:301:251:251:251:201:201:201:401:251:20R311:301:301:201:201:351:301:301:301:201:201:201:401:301:30R321:451:451:351:351:451:451:451:451:351:351:351:501:451:45R332:002:001:451:451:552:052:052:051:501:501:502:001:552:00R341:501:501:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:50R351:551:551:401:401:501:551:551:551:451:451:451:551:501:55R361:201:201:151:151:251:201:201:201:201:201:201:301:251:20 HarrisNuclearPlant7 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 2.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend MidweekWeekendMidweekWeekend Weekend MidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R024:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R034:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:402 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR044:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R054:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R064:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R074:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R084:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R094:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R104:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R114:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R124:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:355 MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR134:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R144:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R154:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R164:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R174:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R184:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R194:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R204:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R214:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R224:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R234:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40 HarrisNuclearPlant7 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1R244:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R254:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40R264:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:404:40StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR274:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R284:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R294:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R304:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R314:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R324:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R334:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R344:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35R364:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:354:35 HarrisNuclearPlant7 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 3.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR011:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R021:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR041:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R051:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R061:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R071:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R081:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R091:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R101:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R111:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R121:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR271:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R281:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R291:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R301:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R311:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R321:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R331:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R341:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R351:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05R361:051:051:001:001:101:051:051:051:001:001:001:151:101:05 HarrisNuclearPlant7 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 4.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2 MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterSummerSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendWeekendMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningEveningMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2 MileRegionand5 MileRegionR014:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R024:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30UnstagedEvacuation2MileRegionandKeyholeto5 MilesR044:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R054:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R064:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R074:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R084:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R094:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R104:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R114:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R124:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30StagedEvacuation2 MileRegionandKeyholeto5MilesR274:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R284:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R294:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R314:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R324:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R334:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R344:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R354:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30R364:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:304:30 HarrisNuclearPlant7 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table7 5.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionSitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR012 MileRadius2 MileRadiusxR025 MileRadius5 MileRadiusxxxxxxR03FullEPZ10 MileRadiusxxxxxxxxxxxxxxEvacuate2 MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR04NNW,N327°010°xxxR05NNE,NE011°056°xxR06ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR07SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR08SSW192°214°xxR09SW,WSW215°259°xxxR10260°281°xxR11W,WNW282°304°xxxR12NW305°326°xxEvacuate5 MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR13N348°034°xxxxxxxxR14NNExxxxxxxxxR15NExxxxxxxxR16ENE035°079°xxxxxxxxxR17E,ESE080°101°xxxxxxxxR18102°124°xxxxxxxR19SE125°146°xxxxxxxxR20SSE147°191°xxxxxxxxxR21S,SSWxxxxxxxxR22192°236°xxxxxxxR23SW237°259°xxxxxxxxR24WSW,WxxxxxxxxxR25WNW260°326°xxxxxxxxxR26NW,NNW327°347°xxxxxxxxStagedEvacuation2 MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:SitePARDescriptionSubZoneABCDEFGHIJKLMNR275 MileRadiusxxxxxxR28NNW,N327°010°xxxR29NNE,NE011°056°xxR30ENE,E,ESE057°124°xxxR31SE,SSE,S125°191°xxxR32SSW192°214°xxR33SW,WSW215°259°xxxR34260°281°xxR35W,WNW282°304°xxxR36NW305°326°xxShelter in Placeuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuateSub Zone(s)Shelter in PlaceSub Zone(s)Evacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 1.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology HarrisNuclearPlant7 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 2.HNPShadowRegion HarrisNuclearPlant7 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 3.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 4.CongestionPatternsat1HouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 5.CongestionPatternsat1Hour30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 6.CongestionPatternsat2Hours30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 7.CongestionPatternsat3Hours25MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 8.CongestionPatternsat4HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate HarrisNuclearPlant7 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure7 9.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

HarrisNuclearPlant7 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

HarrisNuclearPlant7 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

HarrisNuclearPlant7 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Ice(Scenario8)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

HarrisNuclearPlant7 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario9)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

HarrisNuclearPlant7 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03Figure720.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Ice(Scenario11)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario12)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

HarrisNuclearPlant7 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure721.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03Figure722.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario14forRegionR030 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Evening,Good,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 700306090120150180210240270300 VehiclesEvacuating(Thousands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact (Scenario14)2MileRegion 5MileRegion EntireEPZ90%100%

HarrisNuclearPlant8 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18 TRANSIT DEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATESThissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtimeestimatesfortransitvehicles(buses,ambulances,andwheelchairtransportvehicles).Thedemandfortransitservicereflectstheneedsofthreepopulationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)residentsofspecialfacilitiessuchasschoolsandmedica lfacilities;and(3)homeboundspecialneedspopulation.Thesetransitvehiclesmixwiththegeneralevacuationtrafficthatiscomprisedmostlyof"passengercars"(pc's).ThepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamisrepresentedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopc's.Thisequivalencefactorrepresentsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristicsofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.Transitvehiclesmustbemobilizedinpreparationfortheirrespectiveevacuationmissions.Specifically:* Busdriversmustbealerted* Theymusttraveltothebusdepot* Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacilit yTheseactivitiesconsumetime.Basedondiscussionwiththeoffsiteagencies,itisestimatedthatbusmobilizationtimewillaverageapproximately90minutesextendingfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate,tothetimewhenbusesfirstarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Thelocationofbusdepotsimpactsthetimetotravelfromthebusdepotstothefacilitiesbeingevacuated.Locationsofbusdepotswerenotidentifiedinthisstudy.Rather,theoffsiteagencieswereaskedtofactorthelocationofthedepotsandthedistancetotheEPZintotheestimateofmobilizationtime.Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizat ionactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseistheactiontakenbyparents,neighbors,relativesandfriendstopickupchildrenfromschoolpriortothearrivalofbuses,sothattheymayjointh eirfamilies.Virtuallyallstudiesofevacuationshaveconcludedthatthis"bonding"processofunitingfamiliesisuniversallyprevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.ThecurrentpublicinformationdisseminatedtoresidentsoftheHNPEPZindicatesthatschoolchildren(includesprivateschoolsandchildcarecenters)willbeevacuatedtorelocationschoolswheretheycanbepickedupbytheirparents.AsdiscussedinSection2,thisstudyassumesarapidlyescalatingeventattheplantwhereinevacuationisorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.Therefore,childrenareevacuatedtorelocationschools.Pickingupchildrenatschoolcouldaddtotrafficcongestionattheschools,delayingthedepartureofthebusesevacuatingschoolchildren,whichmayhavetoreturninasubsequent"wave"totheEPZtoevacuatethetransit dependentpopulation.Thisreportprovidesestimatesofbusesundertheassumptionthatnochildrenw illbepickedupbytheirparents(inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002),topresentanupperboundestimateofbusesrequired.Itisassumedthatchildrenatday carecentersarepickedupbyparentsorguardiansandthatthe HarrisNuclearPlant8 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1timetoperformthisactivityisincludedinthetripgenerationtimesdiscussedinSection5.Theprocedureforcomputingtransit dependentETEisto:* Estimatedemandfortransitservice* Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions* EstimateroutetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtothereceptioncenters8.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimateThetelephonesurvey(seeAppendixF)resultswereusedtoestimatetheportionofthepopulationrequiringtransitservice:* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicleavailable.* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailabl eatthetimetheevacuationisadvised.Inthelattergroup,thevehicle(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnotexpectedtoreturn)hometoevacuatethehousehold.Table8 1presentsestimatesoftransit dependentpeople.Note:* Estimatesofpersonsrequiringtransitvehiclesincludeschoolchildren.Forthoseevacuationscenarioswherechildrenareatschoolwhenanevacuationisordered,separatetransportationisprovidedfortheschoolchildren.Theactualneedfortransitvehiclesbyresidentsistherebylessthanthegivenestimates.However,estimatesoftransitvehiclesarenotreducedwhenschoolsareinsession.* Itisreasonableandappropriatetoconsiderthatmanytransit dependentpersonswillevacuat ebyride sharingwithneighbors,friendsorfamily.Forexample,nearly80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheirowncars,sharedaridewithneighborsorfriends.Otherdocumentsreportthatapproximately70percentoftransitdependentpersonswereevacuatedviaridesharing.Wewilladoptaconservativeestimatethat50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideshare,inaccordancewithNUREG/CR 7002.Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransit dependentpersonsisbasedonanestimateofaveragebusoccupancyof30personsattheconclusionofthebusrun.Transi tvehicleseatingcapacitiestypicallyequalorexceed60childrenonaverage(roughlyequivalentto40adults).Iftransitvehicleevacueesaretwothirdsadultsandonethirdchildren,thenthenumberof"adultseats"takenby30personsis20+(2/3x10)=27.Onthisbasis,theaverag eloadfactoranticipatedis(27/40)x100=68percent.Thus,iftheactualdemandforserviceexceedstheestimatesofTable8 1by50percent,thedemandforservicecanstillbeaccommoda tedbytheavailablebusseatingcapacity.

HarrisNuclearPlant8 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1indicatesthattransportationmustbeprovidedfor3,419people.Therefore,atotalof114busrunsarerequiredtotransportthispopulationtoreceptioncenters.Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublictransitorride share,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredfortheHNPEPZ:Where,A=PercentofhouseholdswithcommutersC=PercentofhouseholdswhowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuterThesecalculationsareexplainedasfollows:* Allmembers(2.00avg.)ofhouseholds(HH)withnovehicles(1.9%)willevacuatebypublictransitorride share.Theterm36,511(numberofhouseholds)x0.019x2.00,accountsforthesepeople.* ThemembersofHHwith1vehicleaway(19.0%),whoareathome,equal(1.86 1).ThenumberofHHwherethecomm uterwillnotreturnhomeisequalto(36,511x0.190x0.68x0.59),as68%ofEPZhouseholdshaveacommuter,59%ofwhichwouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergency.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms.* ThemembersofHHwith2vehiclesthatareaway(51.5%),whoareathome,equal(3.01-2).ThenumberofHHwhereneithercommuterwillreturnhomeisequalto36,511x0.515x(0.68x0.59)2.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorride shareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms(thelasttermissquaredtorepresenttheprobabilitythatneithercommuterwillreturn).* Householdswith3ormorevehiclesareassumedtohavenoneedfortransitvehicles.* ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHHwithnovehi cles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.Theestimateoftransit dependentpopulationinTable8 1farexceedsthenumberofregisteredtransit dependentpersonsintheEPZasprovidedbythecounties(discussedbelowinSection8.5).ThisisconsistentwiththefindingsofNUREG/CR 6953,Volume2,inthatalargemajorityofthetransit dependentpopulationwithintheEPZsofU.S.nuclearplantsdoesnotregisterwiththeirlocalemergencyresponseagency.

HarrisNuclearPlant8 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemandTable8 2presentstheschoolpopulationandtransportationrequirementsforthedirectevacuationofallschoolsandchildcarecenterswithintheEPZforthe2011 2012schoolyear.Thisinformationwasprovidedbythelocalcountyemergencymanagementagencies.ThecolumninTable8 2entitled"BusesRequired"specifiesthenumberofbusesrequiredforeachschoolunde rthefollowingsetofassumptionsandestimates:* Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.* Whilemanyhighschoolstudentscommutetoschoolusingprivateautomobiles(asdiscussedinSection2.4ofNUREG/CR 7002),theestimateofbusesrequiredforschoolevacuationdoesnotconsidertheuseoftheseprivatevehicles.* Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto70forprimaryschoolsandchildcarecentersand50formiddleandhighschools.* Thosestaffmemberswhodonotaccompanythestudentswillevacuateintheirprivatevehicles.* Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.Implementationofaprocesstoconfirmindividualschooltransportationneedspriortobusdispatchmayimprovebusutilization.Inthisway,thenumberofbusesdispatchedtotheschoolswillreflecttheactualnumberneeded.Theneedforbuseswouldbereducedbyanyhighschoolstudentswhohaveevacuatedusingprivateautomobiles(ifpermittedbyschoolauthorities).Thosebusesoriginallyallocatedtoevacuateschoolchildrenthatarenotneededduetochildrenbeingpickedupbytheirparents,canbegainfullyassignedtoserviceotherfacilitiesorthosepersonswhodonothaveacces stoprivatevehiclesortoride sharing.Table8 3presentsalistoftherelocationschoolsforeachevacuatingschoolandchildcarecenterintheEPZ.Studentswillbetransportedtotheserelocationschoolswheretheywillbesubsequentlyretrievedbytheirrespectivefamilies.8.3 MedicalFacilityDemandTable8 4presentsthecensusofmedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.896peoplehavebeenidentifiedaslivingin,orbeingtreatedin,thesefacilities.Sincetheaveragenumberofpatien tsasthesefacilitiesfluctuatesoften,thecapacity,currentcensusandbreakdownofambulatory,wheelchairboundandbedriddenpatientsforeachfacilitywereprovidedbythecountyemergencymanagementagencies.ThetransportationrequirementsforthemedicalfacilitypopulationarealsopresentedinTable8 4.Thenumberofambulancerunsisdeterminedbyassumingth at2patientscanbeaccommodatedperambulancetrip;thenumberofwheelchairbusrunsassumes15wheelchairspertrip;thenumberofwheelchairvanrunsassumes4wheelchairspertrip;thenumberofminivanrunsassumes5patientspertrip;thenumberofpassengercarrunsassumes4patientspertripandthenumberofbusrunsestimatedassumes30ambulatorypatientspertrip.

HarrisNuclearPlant8 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeopleEPZbusresourcesareassignedtoevacuatingschoolchildren(ifschoolisinsessionatthetimeoftheATE)asthefirstpriorityintheeventofanemergency.Intheeventthattheallocationofbusesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesissomewhatinefficient,orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneedforsomebusestoreturntotheEPZfromthereceptioncenteraftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,tocompletea"secondwave"ofprovidingtransportservicetoevacuees.Forthisreason,theETEforthetransit dependentpopulationwascalculatedforbothaonewavetransitevacuationandfortwowaves.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR03(theentireEPZ),thentherewilllikelybeampletransitresourcesrelativetodemandintheimpactedRegionandthisdiscussionofasecondwavewouldlikelynotapply.Itisassumedth atthereareenoughdriversavailabletomanallresourceslistedinTable8 5.Whenschoolevacuationneedsaresatisfied,subsequentassignmentsofbusestoservicethetransit dependentshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbedispatchedafterpeoplehavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesandareinapositiontoboardthebuseswhentheyaredispatchedtothevariousroutesdescribedbelow.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortransittripsweredevelopedusingbothgoodweatherandadverseweatherconditions.Figure8 1presentsthechronologyofeventsrelevanttotransitoperations.TheelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure8 1.Activity:MobilizeDrivers(A B C)MobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Basedondiscussionswiththecountyemergencymanagementagencies,driverswouldlikelyrequire90minutestobecontacted,totraveltothedepot,bebriefed,andtotraveltothetransit dependentfacilitiesforarapidlyescalatingradiologicalemergenc ywithnoobservableindicationbeforethefact.Mobilizationtimeisslightlylongerinadverseweather-100minuteswhenraining,110minuteswithice.Activity:BoardPassengers(C D)Basedondiscussionswiththeoffsiteagencies,aloadingtimeof15minutes(20minutesforrainand25minutesforice)forschoolbusesisused.Formultiplestopsalongapick uproute(transit dependentbusroutes)estimationoftraveltimemustallowforthedelayassociatedwithstoppingandstartingateachpick uppoint.Thetime,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,"a",expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,"v",expressedinft/sec,toastop,ist=v/a.Assumingthesameaccelerationrateandfinalspeedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:,WhereB=Dwelltimetoservicepassengers.Thetotaldistance,"s"infeet,travelledduringthedecelerationandaccelerationactivitiesis:s=v 2/a.Ifthebushadnotstoppedtoservice HarrisNuclearPlant8 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1passengers,buthadcontinuedtotravelatspeed,v,thenitstraveltimeoverthedistance,s,wouldbe:s/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:Assigningreasonableestimates:* B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,toboardperstop* v=25mph=37ft/sec* a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerateThen,P1minuteperstop.Allowing30minutespick uptimeperbusrunimplies30st opsperrun,forgoodweather.Itisassumedthatbusaccelerationandspeedwillbelessinrain;totalloadingtimeis40minutesperbusinrain,50minutesinice.Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(D E)SchoolEvacuationTransportationresourcesavailablewereprovidedbytheEPZcountyemergencymanagementagenciesandaresummarizedinTable8 5.Alsoincludedinthetablearethenumberofbusesneededtoevacuateschoolsandchildcarecenters,medicalfacilities,transit dependentpopulationandhomeboundspecialneedspersons(discussedbelowinSection8.5).Thesenumbersin dicatetherearesufficientbus,wheelchairtransport,passengercarandambulanceresourcesavailabletoevacuateeveryoneinasinglewave.Therearenotenoughminivanstoevacuateinasinglewave.Therearesurplusbusesandpassengercarsavailabletosupplementtheshortageinminivanssuchthatallpeopleca nevacuateinasinglewave.Thebusesservicingtheschoolsarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsat105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate-90minutesmobilizationtimeplus15minutesloadingtime-ingoodweather.TheUNITESsoftwarediscussedinSection1.3wasusedtodefinebusrout esalongthemostlikelypathfromaschoolbeingevacuatedtotheEPZboundary,travelingtowardtheappropriateschoolreceptioncenter.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromtheschooltotheEPZboundary.Eachbusrouteisgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittentoth eDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVcomputestheroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeedforeach5minuteinterval,foreachbusroute.ThespecifiedbusroutesaredocumentedinTable8 6(refertothemapsofthelink nodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfornodelocations).DataprovidedbyDYNEVduringtheappropriatetimeframedependingonthemobilizationandloadingtimes(i.e.,100to105minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuateforgoodweather)wereusedtocomputetheaveragespeedforeachroute,asfollows:

HarrisNuclearPlant8 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theaveragespeedcomputed(usingthismethodology)forthebusesservicingeachoftheschoolsandchildcarecentersintheEPZisshowninTable8 7throughTable8 9forschoolandchildcarecenterevacuation,andinTable8 11throughTable8 13forthetransitvehiclesevacuatingtransit dependentpersons,whicharediscussedlater.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaveragespeedandthedistancetotheEPZboundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.ThetraveltimefromtheEPZboundarytothereloca tionschoolwascomputedassuminganaveragespeedof45mph,41mph,and36mphforgoodweather,rainandice,respectively.SpeedswerereducedinTable8 7throughTable8 9andinTable8 11throughTable8 13to45mph(41mphforrain-10%decrease-and36mphforice-20%decrease)forthosecalculatedbusspeedswhichexceed45mph,astheschoolbusspeedlimitinNorthCarolinais45mph.Table8 7(goodweather),Table8 8(rain)andTable8 9(ice)presentthefollowingevacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:(1)Th eelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthebusexitstheEPZ;and(2)Theelapsedtimeuntilthebusreachestherelocationschool.TheevacuationtimeoutoftheEPZcanbecomputedasthesumoftimesassociatedwithActivitiesA B C,C D,andD E(Forexample:90min.+15+7=1:55forMoncureElementarySchool,ingoodweather).TheevacuationtimetotherelocationschoolisdeterminedbyaddingthetimeassociatedwithActivityE F(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevac uationtime.NotetheaveragesinglewaveETEforschoolsandchildcarecentersislessthanthe90 thpercentileETEforRegionR03forthegeneralpopulation.Therefore,theevacuationofschoolsandchildcarecenterswillnotimpactprotectiveactiondecisionmakingasthegeneralpopulationtakeslongertoevacuate.EvacuationofTransit DependentPopulationThebusesdispatchedfromthedepotstoservicethetransit dependentevacueeswillbescheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompletedtheirmobilization.AsshowninFigure5 4(ResidentswithnoCommuters),90percentoftheevacueeswillcompletetheirmobilizationwhenthebuseswillbegintheirroutes,approximately120minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Sub ZonesE,FandGhavehightransit dependentpopulationsandrequiremorebusesthananyotherSub Zones(Table8 10).Assuch,separateroutescircu latingApex,HollySpringsandFuquay Varina(Sub ZonesE,FandG,respectively)

HarrisNuclearPlant8 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1havebeenidentified.OtherroutesservicingSub Zoneswithalowertransit dependentpopulationwerealsoidentified.Thoserouteswithmultiplebuseshavebeendesignedsuchthatindividualbusesorgroupsofbusesaredispatchedusingvaryingheadways(5to30minutes),asshowninTable8 11throughTable8 13.Theuseofbusheadwaysensuresthatthosepeoplewhotakelongertomobilizewillbepickedup.Mobilizationtimeis10minuteslongerinra in(20minutesinice)toaccountforslowertravelspeedsandreducedroadwaycapacity.Thosebusesservicingthetransit dependentevacueeswillfirsttravelalongtheirpick uproutes,thenproceedoutofth eEPZtotheirrespectiveReceptionCenter.Thecountyemergencyplansdonotidentifypredefinedbusroutesorpick uppointstoservicethetransit dependentpopulationintheEPZ.The10busroutesshowngraphicallyinFigure8 2anddescribedinTable8 10weredesignedbyKLDtoservicethemajo rroutesthrougheachSub Zone.Itisassumedthatresidentswillwalktothenearestmajorroadwayandflagdownapassingbus,andthattheycanarriveattheroadwaywithinthe120minutebusmobilizationtime(goodweather).Aspreviouslydiscussed,apickuptimeof30minutes(goodweather)isestimatedfor30individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaverageofoneminuteofdelayassociatedwitheachstop.Longerpickuptimesof40minutesand50m inutesareusedforrainandice,respect ively.Thetraveldistancealongtherespectivepick uprouteswithintheEPZisestimatedusingtheUNITESsoftware.BustraveltimeswithintheEPZarecomputedusingaveragespeedscomputedbyDYNEV,usingtheaforementionedmethodologythatwasusedforschoolevacuation.Table8 11throughTable8 13presentthetransit dependentpopulationevacuationtimeestimatesforeachbusroutecalculatedusingtheaboveproceduresforgoodweather,rainandice,respectively.Forexample,theETEforthefirstgroupof3busesservicingthesouthernportionoftheEPZ(Route40-NC 42spanningSub ZonesG,H,Ian dK)iscomputedas120+27+30=3:00forgoodweather(roundeduptonearest5minutes).Here,27minutesisthetimetotravel20.2milesat45.0mph,theaveragespeedoutputbythemodelforthisroutestartingat120minutes.TheETEforasecondwave(discussedbelow)ispresentedintheeventthereisashortfallofavailablebusesorbusdrivers;however,thisisunlikelygiventheampletransportationresourcesspreadbetweenthefourcountiesasshowninTable8 5.Activity:TraveltoRelocationSchoolsandReceptionCenters(E F)ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytotherelocationschoolsandreceptioncentersaremeasuredusingGISsoftwarealongthemostlikelyroutefromtheEPZexitpointtothereceptioncenter.TherelocationschoolsandreceptioncentersaremappedinFigure10 1.Foraone waveevacuation,thistraveltimeoutsidetheEPZdoesnotcontributetotheETE.Foratwo waveevacuation,theETEforbusesmustbeconsider edseparately,sinceitcouldexceedtheETEforthegeneralpopulation.Assumedbusspeedsof45mph,41mph,and36mphforgoodweather,rain,andice,respectively,w illbeappliedforthisactivityforbusesservicingthe HarrisNuclearPlant8 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1transit dependentpopulation.Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(F G)Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(G C)ThebusesassignedtoreturntotheEPZtoperforma"secondwave"evacuationoftransit dependentevacueeswillbethosethathavealreadyevacuatedtransit dependentpeoplewhomobilizedmorequickly.Thefirstwaveoftransit dependentpeopledepartthebus,andthebusthenreturnstotheEPZ,travelstoitsrouteandproceedstopickupmor etransit dependentevacueesalongtheroute.ThetraveltimebacktotheEPZisequaltothetraveltimetothereceptioncenter.Thesecond waveETEforRoute40(NC 42spanningSub ZonesG,H,IandK)iscomputedasfollowsfo rgoodweather:* Busarrivesatreceptioncenterat3:13ingoodweather(3:00toexitEPZ+13minutetraveltimetoreceptioncenter).* Busdischargespassengers(5minutes)anddrivertakesa10minuterest:15minutes.* BusreturnstoEPZ,drivestothestartoftherouteandco mpletessecondroute:13minutes(equaltotraveltimetoreceptioncenter)+27minutes(equaltotraveltimetostartofroute,i.e.,20.2miles@45mph)+27minutes(equaltotraveltimeforsecondroute)=67minutes* Buscompletespick upsalongroute:30minutes.* BusexitsEP Zattime3:00+0:13+0:15+1:07+0:30=5:05(roundedtonearest5minutes)aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheETEforthecompletionofthesecondwaveforalltransit dependentbusroutesareprovidedinTable8 11throughTable8 13.NotetheaveragesinglewaveETEforthetransit dependentpopulationisgreaterthanthe90 thpercentileETEforRegionR03forthegeneralpopulation.Therefore,theevacuationoftransit dependentscouldimpactprotectiveactiondecisionmakingandshouldbeconsidered.TheaverageETEforatwo waveevacuationoftransit dependentpeoplealsoexceedstheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90 thpercentileandcouldalsoimpactprotectactiondecisionmaking.Therelocationoftransit dependentevacueesfromthereceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdecidetodoso,isnotconsideredinthisstudy.EvacuationofMedicalFacilitiesTheevacuationofthesefacilitiesissimilartoschoolevacuationexcept:* Busesareassignedonthebasisof30patientstoallowforstafftoaccompanythepatients.Wheelchairbusescanaccommodate15patients;wheelchairvans-4patients;ambulances-2patients;minivans-5patients,passengerscars-4patients.

HarrisNuclearPlant8 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1* Basedonfeedbackfromthecountyemergencymanagementagencies,loadingtimesof2minutes,7minutes,and15minutesperpatientareusedforambulatory,wheelchairbound,andbedriddenpatients,respectively.Thevehiclesownedby/availabletoeachmedicalfacilitywereprovidedbythecountyemergencymanagementagencies.Itisassumedthatfacilitieswithahighwheelchair boundpopulationwillevacuateusingawheelchairbusandthatwheelchairvanswillevacuatethosefacilitieswithasmallerwheelchair boundpopulation.ItisassumedthatWakeCountymedicalfacilitieswithalowambulatorycensuswillevacuateviaminivansandpassengercars,sincethosearethetransportationassetsthosefacilitieshaveon site.Usingthedataprovided,theseassumptions,andtheaforementionedvehiclecapacities,Table8 4indicatesthat17busruns,15wheelchairbusruns,18wheelchairvanruns,27minivanruns,10passengercarrunsand56ambulancerunsareneededtoserviceallofthemedi calfacilitiesintheEPZ.Aspreviouslydiscussedtheshortfallinminivanscanbesupplementedbythesurplusbusandpassengercarresourcesavailable.Asisdonefortheschools,itisestimatedthatmobilizationtimeaverages90minutesingoodweather(100inrain,110inice).Speciallytrainedmedicalsupportstaff(workingtheirregularshift)willbeonsitetoassistintheevacuationofpatients.Additionalstaff(ifneeded)couldbemobilizedoverthissame90minutetimeframe.Table8 14throughTable8 16summarizetheETEformedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZforgoodweather,rain,andice.ThedistancesfromthemedicalfacilitiestotheEPZboundarywereestimatedusingGISsoftware.AveragespeedsoutputbythemodelforScenario6(Scenario7forrainandScenario8forice)Region3,cappedat45mph(41mphforrainand36mphforice),areusedtocomputetraveltimetoEPZboundary.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundaryiscomputedbydividingthedistancetotheEPZboundarybytheaveragetravelspeed.TheETEisthesumofthemobilizationtime,totalpassengerloadingtime,andtraveltimeoutoftheEPZ.Concurrentloadingonmultiplebuses,wheelchairbuses/vans,minivans,passengercarsandambulancesatcapacityisassumedsuchthatthemaximumloadingtimesforbuses(maximumcapacityof30times2minutesperpassenger),minivans(5times2),passengercars(4times2),wheelchairbuses(15times7),wheelchairvans(4times7),andambulances(2times15)are60,10,8,105,28and30mi nutes,respectively.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexample,thecalculationofETEforSanfordHealth&Rehabwith41ambulatoryresidentsduringgoodweatheris:ETE:90+30x2+3=153min.or2:35roundedtothenearest5minutes.Itisassumedthatmedi calfacilitypopulationisdirectlyevacuatedtoappropriatehostmedicalfacilities.Relocationofthispopulationtopermanentfacilitiesand/orpassingthroughthereceptioncenterbeforearrivingatthehostfacilityarenotconsideredinthisanalysis.AverageETEformedicalfacilitiesarelessthanthe90 thpercentileETEfortheevacuationofthegeneralpopulationfromRegionR03andwillnotimpactprotectiveactiondecisionmaking.

HarrisNuclearPlant8 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18.5 SpecialNeedsPopulationThecountyemergencymanagementagencieshaveacombinedregistrationfortransit dependentandhomeboundspecialneedspersons.Basedondataprovidedbythecounties,thereareanestimated19homeboundspecialneedspeople(14ambulatory,4wheelchair boundand1bedridden)withintheChathamCountyportionoftheEPZ;12homeboundspecialneedspeople(8ambulatory,3wheelchair boundand1bedridden)withintheHarnettCountyportionoftheEPZ;3homeboundspecialneedspeople(allambulatory)withintheLeeCountyportionoftheEPZand69homeboundspecialneedspeople(50ambulatory,12wheelchair boundand7bedridden)withinth eWakeCountyportionoftheEPZ.Thisresultsin75ambulatorypersons,19wheelchair boundpersonsand9bedriddenpersonsforatotalspecialneedspopulationof103people.Parentsareencouragedtoregistertheirchildreniftheywouldneedarideatanytimetoevacuate.Assuch,itisassumedth atlatchkeychildren,childrenwhoareathomewhilebothparentsareatwork,areincludedinthisdata.ETEforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersonsTable8 17summarizestheETEforhomeboundspecialneedspeople.Thetableiscategorizedbytypeofvehiclerequiredandthenbrokendownbyweathercondition.Thetabletakesintoconsiderationthedeploymentofmultiplevehicles(notfilledtocapacity)toreducethenumberofstopspervehicle.DuetothelimitationsondrivingforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersons,itassumedtheywillbepickedupfromtheirhomes.Furthermore,itisconservativelyassumedthatambulatoryandwheel chairboundspecialneedshouseholdsarespaced3milesapartandbedriddenhouseholdsarespaced5milesapart.Vanandbusspeedsapproximate20mphbetweenhouseholdsandambulancespeedsap proximate30mphingoodweather(10%slowerinrain,20%slowerinice).Mobilizationtimesof90minuteswereused(100minutesforrain,and110minutesforice).ThelastHHisassumedtobe5milesfromtheEPZboundary,andthenetwork wideaveragespeed,cappedat45mp h(41mphforrainand36mphforice),afterthelastpickupisusedtocomputetraveltime.ETEiscomputedbysummingmobilizationtime,loadingtimeatfirsthousehold,traveltosubsequenthouseholds,loadingtimeatsubsequenthouseholds,andtraveltimetoEPZboundary.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.Forexampl e,assumingnomorethanonespecialneedspersonperHHimpliesthat75ambulatoryhouseholdsneedtobeserviced.Whileonly3busesareneededfromacapacityperspective,if10busesaredeployedtoservicethesespecialneedsHH,theneachwouldrequireatmost8stops.ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculations:1. Assume10busesaredeployed,eachwithatmost8stops,toserviceatotalof75HH.2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:a. Busesarriveatthefirstpickuplocation:90minutesb. LoadHHmembersatfirs tpickup:5minutesc. Traveltosubsequentpickuplocations:7@9minutes(3miles@20mph)=63minutesd. LoadHHmembersatsubsequentpickuplocations:7@5minutes=35minutese. TraveltoEPZboundary:12minutes(5miles@24.5mph).

HarrisNuclearPlant8 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ETE:90+5+63+35+12=3:25roundedtothenearest5minutesTheaverageETEforhomeboundspecialneedspopulationiscomparabletothe90 thpercentileETEforevacuationofthegeneralpopulationinRegionR03andwillnotimpactprotectiveactiondecisionmaking.

HarrisNuclearPlant8 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Event AAdvisorytoEvacuate BBusDispatchedfromDepot CBusArrivesatFacility/Pick upRoute DBusDepartsforReceptionCenter/RelocationSchoolEBusExitsRegion FBusArrivesatReceptionCenter/RelocationSchoolGBusAvailablefor"SecondWave"EvacuationServiceActivity A BDriverMobilization B CTraveltoFacilityortoPick upRoute C DPassengersBoardtheBus D EBusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundary E FBusTravelsTowardsReceptionCenter/RelocationSchoolOutsidetheEPZ F GPassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreak Figure8 1.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperationsA B C D E F G Time(SubsequentWave)

HarrisNuclearPlant8 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure8 2.Transit DependentBusRoutes HarrisNuclearPlant8 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 1.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates2010EPZPopulationSurveyAverageHHSizewithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesEstimatedNo.ofHouseholdsSurveyPercentHHwithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesSurveyPercentHH withCommutersSurveyPercentHH withNonReturning CommutersTotalPeopleRequiringTransportEstimatedRidesharing PercentagePeopleRequiringPublicTransitPercentPopulationRequiringPublicTransit012012102,9612.001.863.0136,5111.9%19.0%51.5%68%59%6,83850%3,4193.3%

HarrisNuclearPlant8 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 2.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimatesSubZoneSchoolNameEnrollment BusesRequiredEA.V.BaucomElementarySchool96214EApexElementarySchool67010EApexMiddleSchool1,08622EApexSeniorHighSchool2,30046ELufkinRoadMiddleSchool1,01021EOliveChapelElementarySchool93314ESt.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool70411EThalesAcademy3197FHollyGroveElementarySchool98014FHollyGroveMiddleSchool1,13623FHollyRidgeElementarySchool72411FHollyRidgeMiddleSchool1,03321FHollySpringsElementarySchool1,12117FHollySpringsHighSchool2,10843FNewSchool,Inc.Montessori1803GFuquay VarinaMiddleSchool90319GFuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool1,92539GHerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool86713GLincolnHeightsElementarySchool4747GSouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool1193MMoncureElementarySchool2855S.R.DeepRiverElementarySchool63810S.R.LafayetteElementarySchool78012SchoolSubtotal 21,257385SubZoneChildCareCenterNameEnrollment BusesRequiredEAllAboutKids1252EApexBaptistChurchPreschool1743EApexChildCarewithDebbie51EApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool782EGraceChurchPreschool822EHopeChapelPreschool752EWoodhavenBaptistPre school1022EEarthAngel'sDayCareHome81EEdithFranklinDayCareHome51ELori'sFamilyDayCare21 HarrisNuclearPlant8 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SubZoneSchoolNameEnrollment BusesRequiredEPlayCare61EVickie'sDayCareHome51EGoddardSchoolApex1202EGrowingYearsLearningCenter1002EJudy'sHomeCare51EKarin' 4Kidz81EMoravicFamilyDayCare51FHollySpringsLearningCenter1593FHollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation882FHomeAwayFromHomeChildcare51FKiddieAcademyofHollySprings1453FKris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare51FLittleDreamersPreschool1112FSisters'ChildCareServices201FStellaLowerySmallDayCareHome51FSunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool661FTheCarolinaSchool501GAMother'sLove51GChildcareNetwork-Fuquay Varina1132GFuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare982GFuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith1803GGingerbreadLittleversity Downtown992GLittleAngelsPreparatory501GLittleMiracles41GReadyOrNotHereIGrow922GShiningStarChildCareHome51GSouthWakePreschool&Academy371GSpinningWheelsLearningCenter241GVanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome71ChildCareCenterSubtotal 2,27360TOTAL: 23,530445 HarrisNuclearPlant8 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 3.RelocationSchoolsforSchoolsandChildCareCentersSchool/ChildCareCenterRelocationSchoolDeepRiverElementarySchoolBenjaminT.BullockElementarySchoolSt.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchoolCardinalGibbonsHighSchoolFuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchoolGarnerHighSchoolAMother'sLoveChildcareNetwork-Fuquay VarinaFuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCareFuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaithGingerbreadLittleversity DowntownLittleAngelsPreparatoryLittleMiraclesReadyOrNotHereIGrowShiningStarChildCareHomeSouthWakePreschool&AcademySouthernWakeAcademyHighSchoolSpinningWheelsLearningCenterVanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHomeLafayetteElementarySchoolHarnettCentralMiddleSchoolHollyGroveMiddleSchoolKnightdaleHighSchoolHollyRidgeElementarySchoolHollyRidgeMiddleSchoolHollySpringsElementarySchoolA.V.BaucomElementarySchoolLeesvilleHighSchoolApexMiddleSchoolLufkinRoadMiddleSchoolOliveChapelElementarySchoolFuquay VarinaMiddleSchoolMillbrookHighSchoolHerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchoolLincolnHeightsElementarySchoolMoncureElementarySchoolNorthwoodHighSchoolApexElementarySchoolSandersonHighSchoolAllAboutKidsApexBaptistChurchPreschoolApexChildCarewithDebbieApexSeniorHighSchoolApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschoolEarthAngel'sDayCareHome HarrisNuclearPlant8 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1School/ChildCareCenterRelocationSchoolEdithFranklinDayCareHomeGoddardSchoolApexSandersonHighSchoolGraceChurchPreschoolGrowingYearsLearningCenterHopeChapelPreschoolJudy'sHomeCareKarin' 4KidzLori'sFamilyDayCareMoravicFamilyDayCarePlayCareThalesAcademyVickie'sDayCareHomeWoodhavenBaptistPre schoolHollyGroveElementarySchoolSoutheastRaleighHighSchoolHollySpringsHighSchoolHollySpringsLearningCenterHollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducationHomeAwayFromHomeChildcareKiddieAcademyofHollySpringsKris'HomeSweetHomeDaycareLittleDreamersPreschoolNewSchool,Inc.MontessoriSisters'ChildCareServicesStellaLowerySmallDayCareHomeSunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschoolTheCarolinaSchool HarrisNuclearPlant8 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 4.MedicalFacilityTransitDemandSubZoneFacilityNameCapacity CurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedridden BusRunsWheelchairBusRunsWheel chairVanRunsMinivanRunsCarRuns Ambu lanceLEECOUNTYMEDICALFACILITIESJSanfordHealth&Rehab1371374169272500014LeeCountySubtotal:1371374169272500014WAKECOUNTYMEDICALFACILITIESABrown'sFamilyCareHome66600100000AJamesRestHome403828100103000CMurchisonResidentialCorpHome33300000010EAzaleaGardensMentalHealth66600000200EBrookridgeAssistedLiving555240120203000EFavourHome66600000020EKingsGroupHomeforChildren44400000010ELockleyRoadHome66600000200EMasonStreetGroupHome66600000200EOliveHome66600000200ERexRehab&NursingCenterofApex107902040301300015ESeagravesFamilyCareHome64400000100EShackletonHome33300000010ESpringArborofApex766647190205000 HarrisNuclearPlant8 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SubZoneFacilityNameCapacity CurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedridden BusRunsWheelchairBusRunsWheel chairVanRunsMinivanRunsCarRuns Ambu lanceEWakeMedApexHealthplex 11212741101001FAventFerryHome66600000200FBassLakeHome66600000020FCountryLaneGroupHome66600000200FHerbertReidHome55500000100FHickoryAvenueHome66600000200FSt.Mark'sManor99900000200FTrotter'sBluff66600000200GCreekwayHome66600000200GEvans WalstonHome33300000010GFuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderly80626020201000GHopeHouse44400000010GKintonCourtHome16161600000400GLifeSkillsIndependentCare#144400000100GMim'sFamilyCareHome62200000010GWakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacility363502015005008GWindsorPointContinuingCare300275140100355700018WakeCountySubtotal:84175947120781151018271042TOTAL:978896512276108171518271056Notes:1Thisfacilityisastand aloneEmergencyDepartmentwithaconstantlychangingbreakdownofpatients.Anaverageofthe%breakdownofothermedicalfacilitieswasapplied HarrisNuclearPlant8 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 5.SummaryofTransportationResourcesTransportationResourceBusesWheelchair BusesWheelchair VansMinivansPassengerCarsAmbulances MedevacHelicopterResourcesAvailableWakeCountyPublicSchoolSystem883WakeCountyEMSApex3WakeCountyEMSFuquay Varina2WakeCountyEMSHollySprings2EasternWakeandCaryAreaEMS139WakeMedCriticalCare201RexHealthcare4AventFerryHome1AzaleaGardensMentalHealth1BassLakeHome1BrookridgeAssistedLiving2CountryLaneGroupHome1CreekwayHome1Evans WalstonHome1FavourHome4Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderly1HerbertReidHome1HickoryAvenueHome1HopeHouse1KingsGroupHomeforChildren4KintonCourtHome2LifeSkillsIndependentCare#11LockleyRoadHome1MasonStreetGroupHome1Mim'sFamilyCareHome1MurchisonResidentialCorpHome1OliveHome1 HarrisNuclearPlant8 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TransportationResourceBusesWheelchair BusesWheelchair VansMinivansPassengerCarsAmbulances MedevacHelicopterSeagravesFamilyCareHome1ShackletonHome1SpringArborofApex1St.Mark'sManor1Trotter'sBluff1WindsorPointContinuingCare1ChathamTransit131122ChathamCountyEMSStationsFirstHealth8MoncureElementarySchool5LeeCounty1308CentralCarolinaHospital(CCH)1CountyofLeeTransitSystem(COLTS)1518SanfordHealth&Rehab1HarnettCounty2572HarnettAreaTransitSystem1AndersonCreekEmergencyServices3ErwinFireRescue2CoatsGroveFireDepartment2TOTAL: 1,27719351917931ResourcesNeededSchoolsandChildCareCenters(Table8 2): 443MedicalFacilities(Table8 4): 171518271056TransitDependentPopulation(Table8 10): 114HomeboundSpecialNeeds(Section8.5): 1055TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS: 58415242710610 HarrisNuclearPlant8 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 6.BusRouteDescriptionsBusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary1ApexElementarySchool1276,1275,757,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,6012ApexSeniorHighSchool,Judy'sHomeCare1018,1450,1203ApexMiddleSchool319,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,6014A.V.BaucomElementarySchool694,1282,710,669,665,660,325,326,327,396,15786LufkinRoadMiddleSchool447,60,692,6017OliveChapelElementarySchool296,299,1541,1542,1539,1544,434,1543,1343,1532,15318St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool1010,291,1277,292,1276,294,319,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60110HollyGroveElementarySchool,HollyGroveMiddleSchool,HollySpringsHighSchool,HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare156,140,1319,21,33,32,31,30,24,26,25,1566,1564,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60111HollyRidgeElementarySchool,HollyRidgeMiddleSchool555,715,716,52,790,520,522,524,525,51112HollySpringsElementarySchool439,555,715,716,52,790,520,522,524,525,51113SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool,SouthWakePreschool&Academy431,1032,1573,1033,1257,1254,1256,1255,125814NewSchool,Inc.MontessoriSunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool,StellaLowerySmallDayCareHome50,1463,51,52,790,520,522,524,525,51115Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool,ReadyOrNotHereIGrow,VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome1031,1253,424,226,1574,20216Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool957,226,1574,20217LincolnHeightsElementarySchool894,228,959,204,203,1030,226,1574,20218MoncureElementarySchool74,261,770,771,77219HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool789,47,1462,1461,46,44,43,126120ThalesAcademy,ApexChildCarewithDebbie1450,1018,585,1019,1376,704,581,1220,60,692,60140TransitDependentSouthernEPZ872,873,874,875,807,866,809,808,810,811,839,840,841,842 HarrisNuclearPlant8 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary41TransitDependentEasternEPZ31,32,33,21,35,435,1264,615,431,1032,1573,1033,1257,1254,1256,1255,1258,126342TransitDependentNorthernEPZ128,641,129,130,466,1024,1598,1025,135,620,65543TransitDependentApex315,314,306,299,303,304,1280,694,297,703,1378,585,1018,1450,120,587,122,123,1582,672,126,326,325,660,665,669,710,1282,694,702,294,319,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60144TransitDependentHollySprings439,441,1036,443,444,25,26,24,30,31,32,33,21,35,438,1320,1321,439,555,715,716,52,790,520,522,524,525,51145TransitDependentFuquay Varina957,958,229,1250,228,1504,957,226,1030,203,204,959,228,1250,229,1100,1099,1499,1249,1501,1502,1575,20246TransitDependentSub ZonesA,B278,632,436,282,283,235,239,241,243,244,245,246,249,251,128,433,1539,1544,434,1543,1343,1532,153147TransitDependentSub ZonesC,D1318,156,140,1319,21,33,3248TransitDependSub ZoneJ1580,913,915,914,916,918,917,91949TransitDependentSub ZoneM281,280,279,277,27550MajorEvacuationRouteNC 540TollNB1551,1346,1345,1545,1344,1546,1543,1343,1532,1531,1533,1568,1342,1341,1338,1337,134051MajorEvacuationRouteUS 64EB641,128,433,1539,1544,434,127,1584,1593,126,672,1582,123,122,587,120,119,116,1011,583,58452MajorEvacuationRouteUS 64WB128,641,129,130,466,1024,1598,1025,135,620,655,61853MajorEvacuationRouteUS 1NB76,1138,73,72,1557,1555,1560,582,1552,71,690,759,691,1583,692,60154MajorEvacuationRouteUS 1SB76,579,577,575,10,6,1,592,22,78,630,83,8455MajorEvacuationRouteNC 42WB872,873,874,875,807,866,809,808,810,811,839,840,84156MajorEvacuationRouteNC 55NB33,32,31,30,24,26,25,1566,1564,28,27,762,445,68,758,1273,1271,1274,734,320,319,294,702,694,1282,710,669,665,660,325,326,327,396,157859Mim'sFamilyCareHome893,894,228,959,204,203,1030,226,157460Brown'sFamilyCareHome,JamesRestHome452,75,73,72,1557,1555,1560,582,1552,71,690,759,691,1583,692,601 HarrisNuclearPlant8 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary62RexRehab&NursingCenterofApex734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60163SpringArborofApex304,1280,694,297,298,1281,670,671,123,122,587,12071Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderly206,1100,1099,1499,1249,1501,1502,1575,20272WindsorPointContinuingCare1033,425,1031,1253,424,226,1574,20273SanfordHealth&Rehab83,84,87,8974WakeMedApexHealthplex665,660,325,126,672,1582,123,122,587,12075AventFerryHome,CountryLaneGroupHome,Trotter'sBluff1319,21,33,32,31,30,24,26,25,1566,1564,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60176BassLakeHome439,555,715,716,52,790,520,522,524,52577BrookridgeAssistedLiving1276,294,319,320,734,1274,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60179CreekwayHome1499,1249,150180Evans WalstonHome44,43,1261,4281FavourHome444,29,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60182HerbertReidHome,St.Mark'sManor54,53,791,52,790,520,522,524,52583HickoryAvenueHome438,1320,1321,439,441,1036,443,444,29,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,60184KintonCourtHome229,1250,228,959,204,203,1030,226,1574,20285MasonStreetHome1378,585,1019,1376,704,581,1220,60,692,60187SeagravesFamilyCareHome294,1451,703,297,1454,1018,1450,12090WakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacility1100,229,1250,228,959,204,203,1030,226,1574,20291AzaleaGardensMentalHealth,MasonStreetGroupHome,OliveHome1019,1376,704,581,1220,60,692,60192HopeHouse1254,1256,1255,1258,1263,20293KingsGroupHomeforChildren299,1541,1542,1539,1544,434,127,1584,1593,126,672,1582,123,122,587,12094LifeSkillsIndependentCare#11262,1259,1258,1263,202,1576,4295LockleyRoadHome790,520,522,524,52596MurchisonResidentialCorpHome158,156,140,1319,21,33,32,31,30,24,26,25,1566,1564,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,601,693 HarrisNuclearPlant8 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1BusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary97ShackletonHome1272,1271,1273,758,68,690,759,691,1583,692,601,693110Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare,Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith957,226,1574,202111LittleAngelsPreparatory,LittleMiracles,ShiningStarChildCareHome1100,1099,1499,1249112ChildcareNetworkFuquay Varina,GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown959,204,203,1030,226,1574,202113AMother'sLove1032,1573,1033,1257,1254,1256,1255,1258114SpinningWheelsLearningCenter48,47,56115HollySpringsLearningCenter,Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare,Sisters'ChildCareServices,TheCarolinaSchool555,715,716,52,790,520,519,518,517,1436,454,717,459116HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation,KiddieAcademyofHollySprings,LittleDreamersPreschool443,444,29,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,601117Karin' 4Kidz444,29,28,27,762,445,68,690,759,691,1583,692,601118AllAboutKids,GraceChurchPreschool,WoodhavenBaptistPre school517,1436,454,717,459119EarthAngel'sDayCareHome1211,1063,728,727,1374,454,717,459120ApexBaptistChurchPreschool,ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool,EdithFranklinDayCareHome,GoddardSchoolApex,GrowingYearsLearningCenter,Vickie'sDayCareHome294,1451,703,1378,585,1019,1376,704,581,1220,60,692,601121PlayCare682,1283,684,660,325,126,672,1582,123,122,587,120122Lori'sFamilyDayCare,MoravicFamilyDayCare1221,1220,60,692,601123HopeChapelPreschool301,1009,673,671,123,122,587,120 HarrisNuclearPlant8 28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 7.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool90154.745.071:558.4122:10HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 190150.00.001:453.961:55LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 190150.00.001:458.8122:00WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool90153.041.251:5017.3242:15ApexElementarySchool90153.345.051:5014.7202:10ApexMiddleSchool90152.945.041:5017.1232:15ApexSeniorHighSchool90150.84.2122:0015.9222:25LufkinRoadMiddleSchool90151.245.021:5017.1232:15OliveChapelElementarySchool90153.38.0252:1017.4242:35St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool90154.940.581:5510.6152:10ThalesAcademy90152.936.351:5014.7202:10HollyGroveElementarySchool90158.330.7172:0513.5192:25HollyGroveMiddleSchool90158.230.7172:0524.9342:40HollyRidgeElementarySchool90153.211.4172:0524.7332:40HollyRidgeMiddleSchool90153.211.4172:0524.7332:40HollySpringsElementarySchool90153.77.7302:1524.7332:50HollySpringsHighSchool90158.730.7172:0513.5192:25NewSchool,Inc.Montessori90152.721.781:5513.4182:15Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool90150.93.9142:0028.4382:40Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool90153.335.361:5527.0372:35LincolnHeightsElementarySchool90151.73.6292:1528.4382:55SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool90153.13.2582:4512.8183:05 HarrisNuclearPlant8 29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids90151.545.031:5016.1222:15ApexBaptistChurchPreschool90152.718.491:5514.7202:15ApexChildCarewithDebbie90153.036.351:5014.7202:10ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool90152.718.491:5514.7202:15EarthAngel'sDayCareHome90151.839.131:5016.1222:15EdithFranklinDayCareHome90152.718.491:5514.7202:15GoddardSchoolApex90152.718.491:5514.7202:15GraceChurchPreschool90151.545.031:5016.1222:15GrowingYearsLearningCenter90152.718.491:5514.7202:15HopeChapelPreschool90151.411.381:5515.9222:20Judy'sHomeCare90150.84.2122:0015.9222:25Karin' 4 Kidz90154.426.2112:0014.7202:20Lori'sFamilyDayCare90151.042.821:5014.7202:10MoravicFamilyDayCare90151.042.821:5014.7202:10PlayCare90153.219.2112:0015.9222:25Vickie'sDayCareHome90152.718.491:5514.7202:15WoodhavenBaptistPre school90151.545.031:5016.1222:15HollySpringsLearningCenter90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare90158.330.7172:0513.5192:25KiddieAcademyofHollySprings90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25LittleDreamersPreschool90154.520.7132:0013.5192:20Sisters'ChildCareServices90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25StellaLowerySmallDayCare90151.521.651:5013.4182:10SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool90152.721.781:5513.4182:15 HarrisNuclearPlant8 30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool90154.417.0162:0515.0202:25AMother'sLove90152.94.0442:3012.8182:50ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina90151.13.1222:1013.0182:30Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare90150.83.9132:0013.0182:20Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith90150.83.9132:0013.0182:20GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown90151.13.1222:1013.0182:30LittleAngelsPreparatory90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00LittleMiracles90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00ReadyOrNotHereIGrow90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25ShiningStarChildCareHome90151.11.3552:4013.7193:00SouthWakePreschool&Academy90153.13.2582:4512.8183:05SpinningWheelsLearningCenter90151.439.031:5011.2152:05VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome90151.14.0172:0513.0182:25MaximumforEPZ:2:45Maximum:3:05AverageforEPZ:2:05Average:2:25Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow

HarrisNuclearPlant8 31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 8.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool100204.741.072:108.4132:25HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 1100200.00.002:003.962:10LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 1100200.00.002:008.8132:15WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool100203.035.062:1017.3262:40ApexElementarySchool100203.341.052:0514.7222:30ApexMiddleSchool100202.941.052:0517.1262:35ApexSeniorHighSchool100200.85.1102:1015.9242:35LufkinRoadMiddleSchool100201.241.022:0517.1262:35OliveChapelElementarySchool100203.38.1252:2517.4262:55St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool100204.936.492:1010.6162:30ThalesAcademy100202.936.752:0514.7222:30HollyGroveElementarySchool100208.331.1162:2013.5202:40HollyGroveMiddleSchool100208.231.1162:2024.9373:00HollyRidgeElementarySchool100203.212.1162:2024.7373:00HollyRidgeMiddleSchool100203.212.1162:2024.7373:00HollySpringsElementarySchool100203.77.6302:3024.7373:10HollySpringsHighSchool100208.731.1172:2013.5202:40NewSchool,Inc.Montessori100202.727.072:1013.4202:30Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool100200.92.9182:2028.4423:05Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool100203.334.962:1027.0402:50LincolnHeightsElementarySchool100201.72.9362:4028.4423:25SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool100203.13.0613:0512.8193:25 HarrisNuclearPlant8 32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids100201.541.032:0516.1242:30ApexBaptistChurchPreschool100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40ApexChildCarewithDebbie100203.036.752:0514.7222:30ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40EarthAngel'sDayCareHome100201.835.442:0516.1242:30EdithFranklinDayCareHome100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40GoddardSchoolApex100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40GraceChurchPreschool100201.541.032:0516.1242:30GrowingYearsLearningCenter100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40HopeChapelPreschool100201.44.9182:2015.9242:45Judy'sHomeCare100200.85.1102:1015.9242:35Karin' 4 Kidz100204.440.472:1014.7222:35Lori'sFamilyDayCare100201.036.522:0514.7222:30MoravicFamilyDayCare100201.036.522:0514.7222:30PlayCare100203.29.9202:2015.9242:45Vickie'sDayCareHome100202.715.5112:1514.7222:40WoodhavenBaptistPre school100201.541.032:0516.1242:30HollySpringsLearningCenter100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation100204.530.792:1013.5202:30HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare100208.331.1162:2013.5202:40KiddieAcademyofHollySprings100204.530.792:1013.5202:30Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45LittleDreamersPreschool100204.530.792:1013.5202:30Sisters'ChildCareServices100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45StellaLowerySmallDayCare100201.522.542:0513.4202:25SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100202.727.072:1013.4202:30 HarrisNuclearPlant8 33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool100204.415.0182:2015.0222:45AMother'sLove100202.94.4402:4012.8193:00ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina100201.12.4302:3013.0202:50Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare100200.82.9182:2013.0202:40Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith100200.82.9182:2013.0202:40GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown100201.12.4302:3013.0202:50LittleAngelsPreparatory100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20LittleMiracles100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20ReadyOrNotHereIGrow100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45ShiningStarChildCareHome100201.11.3522:5513.7213:20SouthWakePreschool&Academy100203.13.0613:0512.8193:25SpinningWheelsLearningCenter100201.435.832:0511.2172:25VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome100201.13.2212:2513.0202:45MaximumforEPZ:3:05Maximum:3:25AverageforEPZ:2:20Average:2:45Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow HarrisNuclearPlant8 34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table8 9.SchoolandChildCareCenterEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceSchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)CHATHAMCOUNTYSCHOOLSMoncureElementarySchool110254.736.082:258.4142:40HARNETTCOUNTYSCHOOLSLafayetteElementarySchool 1110250.00.002:153.972:25LEECOUNTYSCHOOLSDeepRiverElementarySchool 1110250.00.002:158.8152:30WAKECOUNTYSCHOOLSA.V.BaucomElementarySchool110253.031.762:2517.3292:55ApexElementarySchool110253.336.062:2514.7252:50ApexMiddleSchool110252.936.052:2017.1292:50ApexSeniorHighSchool110250.85.492:2515.9272:55LufkinRoadMiddleSchool110251.236.022:2017.1292:50OliveChapelElementarySchool110253.38.1252:4017.4293:10St.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool110254.935.892:2510.6182:45ThalesAcademy110252.932.662:2514.7252:50HollyGroveElementarySchool110258.325.7202:3513.5233:00HollyGroveMiddleSchool110258.225.7202:3524.9423:20HollyRidgeElementarySchool110253.210.7182:3524.7423:20HollyRidgeMiddleSchool110253.210.7182:3524.7423:20HollySpringsElementarySchool110253.77.1322:5024.7423:35HollySpringsHighSchool110258.727.8192:3513.5233:00NewSchool,Inc.Montessori110252.719.992:2513.4232:50Fuquay VarinaMiddleSchool110250.92.9182:3528.4483:25Fuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05HerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool110253.328.572:2527.0463:15LincolnHeightsElementarySchool110251.72.2473:0528.4483:55SouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool110253.13.1593:1512.8223:40 HarrisNuclearPlant8 35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)WAKECOUNTYCHILDCARECENTERSAllAboutKids110251.536.032:2016.1272:50ApexBaptistChurchPreschool110252.723.182:2514.7252:50ApexChildCarewithDebbie110253.032.562:2514.7252:50ApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool110252.723.182:2514.7252:50EarthAngel'sDayCareHome110251.831.042:2016.1272:50EdithFranklinDayCareHome110252.723.182:2514.7252:50GoddardSchoolApex110252.723.182:2514.7252:50GraceChurchPreschool110251.536.032:2016.1272:50GrowingYearsLearningCenter110252.723.182:2514.7252:50HopeChapelPreschool110251.44.1212:4015.9273:10Judy'sHomeCare110250.85.492:2515.9272:55Karin' 4 Kidz110254.436.082:2514.7252:50Lori'sFamilyDayCare110251.033.522:2014.7252:45MoravicFamilyDayCare110251.033.522:2014.7252:45PlayCare110253.28.0252:4015.9273:10Vickie'sDayCareHome110252.723.182:2514.7252:50WoodhavenBaptistPre school110251.536.032:2016.1272:50HollySpringsLearningCenter110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00HollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50HomeAwayFromHomeChildcare110258.325.7202:3513.5233:00KiddieAcademyofHollySprings110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50Kris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00LittleDreamersPreschool110254.528.7102:2513.5232:50Sisters'ChildCareServices110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00StellaLowerySmallDayCare110251.518.452:2013.4232:45SunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool110252.719.992:2513.4232:50 HarrisNuclearPlant8 36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1SchoolDriverMobilizationTime(min)LoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.S.(mi.)TravelTimefromEPZBdrytoR.S.(min)ETEtoR.S.(hr:min)TheCarolinaSchool110254.414.5192:3515.0253:00AMother'sLove110252.94.0443:0012.8223:25ChildcareNetworkFuquayVarina110251.12.6272:4513.0223:10Fuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare110250.82.9182:3513.0223:00Fuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith110250.82.9182:3513.0223:00GingerbreadLittleversity Downtown110251.12.6272:4513.0223:10LittleAngelsPreparatory110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45LittleMiracles110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45ReadyOrNotHereIGrow110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05ShiningStarChildCareHome110251.11.1613:2013.7233:45SouthWakePreschool&Academy110253.13.1593:1512.8223:40SpinningWheelsLearningCenter110251.431.932:2011.2192:40VanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome110251.13.2222:4013.0223:05MaximumforEPZ:3:20Maximum:3:55AverageforEPZ:2:35Average:3:05Notes:1-NotincludedincalculationforMaximumandAverageETEvaluessinceschoolresidesintheShadow HarrisNuclearPlant8 37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table810.SummaryofTransit DependentBusRoutesRouteNo.ofBusesRouteDescriptionSub ZonesServicedLength(mi.)409SouthernEPZ:NC 42fromFuquay VarinawestoutoftheEPZtowardSanfordG(10%)+H+I+K20.24112EasternEPZ:NC 55southboundfromentranceintoEPZthroughHollySpringsandFuquay VarinaE(15%)+F(10%)+G(10%)14.74211NorthernEPZ:US 64westboundfromintersectionwithSalemSt(SR1011)outofEPZtowardsPittsboroE(20%)+N13.04333CirculatethroughApex,theneastoutofEPZtoReceptionCentersE(65%)17.24422CirculatethroughHollySprings,thennortheastoutofEPZtoReceptionCentersF(90%)20.54519CirculatethroughFuquay Varina,thensouthoutofEPZtoReceptionCentersG(80%)8.3462Sub ZonesA,B:OldUS 1eastboundtoNewHillOliveRdnorthbound,thenoutoftheEPZalongUS 64WBtoNC 540TollA+B14.3473Sub ZonesC,D:CassHoltRdeastboundtowardsHollySprings,thenalongHollySpringsNewHillRdwestbound.ExitsEPZalongUS 1eastboundtoReceptionCentersC+D17.3481Sub ZoneJ:PicksupevacueesalongLowerMoncureRdsouthbound,thenoutofEPZtowardsSanfordJ6.0492Sub ZoneM:OldUS 1inMoncuretoMoncurePittsboroRdnorthbound,toGumSpringsChurchRdoutoftheEPZtowardsPittsboroM9.9Total:114 HarrisNuclearPlant8 38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table811.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 312020.245.027303:0010.01351067305:054 613520.245.027303:1510.01351067305:206 915020.245.027303:3010.01351067305:35411 312014.710.584303:5512.81751056305:554 613014.711.378304:0012.81751056306:006 914014.712.570304:0012.81751056306:009 1215014.713.963304:0512.81751056306:05421 312013.045.017302:506.5951044304:304 613013.045.017303:006.5951044304:406 914013.045.017303:106.5951044304:509 1115013.045.017303:206.5951044305:00431 512017.219.254303:2514.72051066305:406 1012517.221.847303:2514.72051066305:4011 1513017.222.546303:3014.72051066305:4516 2013517.223.544303:3014.72051066305:4521 2514017.226.539303:3014.72051066305:4526 2914517.227.737303:3514.72051066305:5030 3315017.230.534303:3514.72051066305:50441 412020.519.862303:3513.41851073305:555 712520.520.560303:3513.41851073305:558 1013020.521.358303:4013.41851073306:0011 1313520.524.151303:4013.41851073306:0014 1614020.525.349303:4013.41851073306:0017 1914520.526.746303:4513.41851073306:0520 2215020.527.844303:4513.41851073306:05 HarrisNuclearPlant8 39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41208.35.787304:0013.71851043305:505 71308.36.182304:0513.71851043305:558 101358.36.379304:0513.71851043305:5511 131408.36.576304:1013.71851043306:0014 161458.36.873304:1013.71851043306:0017 191508.37.170304:1013.71851043306:0046112014.345.019302:5024.23251070305:20215014.345.019303:2024.23251070305:5047112017.335.929303:0018.82551071305:25213517.339.027303:1518.82551071305:40315017.338.927303:3018.82551071305:554811206.045.08302:4010.51451030304:104911209.945.013302:457.41051036304:2021509.945.013303:157.41051036304:50MaximumETE:4:10MaximumETE:6:05AverageETE:3:35AverageETE:5:40 HarrisNuclearPlant8 40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table812.Transit DependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 313020.241.030403:2010.01551074405:454 614520.241.030403:3510.01551074406:006 916020.241.030403:5010.01551074406:15411 313014.79.593404:2512.81951062406:454 614014.710.287404:3012.81951062406:506 915014.711.080404:3512.81951062406:559 1216014.712.173404:3512.81951062406:55421 313013.041.019403:106.5951047405:054 614013.041.019403:206.5951047405:156 915013.041.019403:306.5951047405:259 1116013.041.019403:406.5951047405:35431 513017.219.553403:4514.72151071406:156 1013517.220.251403:5014.72151071406:2011 1514017.221.049403:5014.72151071406:2016 2014517.223.644403:5014.72151071406:2021 2515017.224.742403:5514.72151071406:2526 2915517.227.138403:5514.72151071406:2530 3316017.228.237404:0014.72151071406:30441 413020.518.666404:0013.42051080406:355 713520.519.364404:0013.42051080406:358 1014020.521.757404:0013.42051080406:3511 1314520.522.854404:0013.42051080406:3514 1615020.523.952404:0513.42051080406:4017 1915520.524.949404:0513.42051080406:4020 2216020.527.445404:0513.42051080406:40 HarrisNuclearPlant8 41KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41308.34.8105404:3513.72051047406:405 71408.35.099404:4013.72051047406:458 101458.35.296404:4513.72051047406:5011 131508.35.493404:4513.72051047406:5014 161558.35.590404:5013.72051047406:5517 191608.35.787404:5013.72051047406:5546113014.341.021403:1524.23551077406:05216014.341.021403:4524.23551077406:3547113017.330.134403:2518.82751078406:05214517.335.030403:3518.82751078406:15316017.335.329403:5018.82751078406:304811306.041.09403:0010.51551033404:454911309.940.815403:057.41151040404:5521609.941.014403:357.41151040405:25MaximumETE:4:50MaximumETE:6:55AverageETE:4:00AverageETE:6:20 HarrisNuclearPlant8 42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceRouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)401 314020.236.034503:4510.01751084506:354 615520.236.034504:0010.01751084506:506 917020.236.034504:1510.01751084507:05411 314014.78.6102504:5512.82151070507:354 615014.79.395504:5512.82151070507:356 916014.711.180504:5012.82151070507:309 1217014.712.173504:5512.82151070507:35421 314013.036.022503:356.51151054505:454 615013.036.022503:456.51151054505:556 916013.036.022503:556.51151054506:059 1117013.036.022504:056.51151054506:15431 514017.217.659504:1014.72451081507:006 1014517.218.257504:1514.72451081507:0511 1515017.219.154504:1514.72451081507:0516 2015517.221.249504:1514.72451081507:0521 2516017.222.047504:2014.72451081507:1026 2916517.223.943504:2014.72451081507:1030 3317017.224.642504:2514.72451081507:15441 414020.516.475504:3013.42251090507:305 714520.516.973504:3013.42251090507:308 1015020.518.866504:3013.42251090507:3011 1315520.519.463504:3013.42251090507:3014 1616020.520.261504:3513.42251090507:3517 1916520.520.959504:3513.42251090507:3520 2217020.522.954504:3513.42251090507:35 HarrisNuclearPlant8 43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RouteNumberBusNumberOne WaveTwo WaveMobilization(min)RouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)DistancetoR.C.(miles)TravelTimetoR.C.(min)Unload(min)DriverRest(min)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTime(min)ETE(hr:min)451 41408.33.9128505:2013.72351054507:455 71508.34.1122505:2513.72351054507:508 101558.34.2120505:2513.72351054507:5011 131608.34.3117505:3013.72351054507:5514 161658.34.4114505:3013.72351054507:5517 191708.35.689505:1013.72351054507:3546114014.336.024503:3524.24051088506:50217014.336.024504:0524.24051088507:2047114017.324.443503:5518.83151089507:00215517.331.034504:0018.83151089507:05317017.332.032504:1518.83151089507:204811406.034.211503:2510.51751037505:254911409.935.917503:307.41251045505:3521709.936.017504:007.41251045506:05MaximumETE:5:30MaximumETE:7:55AverageETE:4:25AverageETE:7:05 HarrisNuclearPlant8 44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table814.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates-GoodWeatherMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)SanfordHealth&RehabAmbulatory90241601.932:35Wheelchairbound907691051.933:20Bedridden 90152730 1.9 32:05 Brown'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory9026123.341:50JamesRestHomeAmbulatory90228563.342:30Wheelchairbound 90 71028 3.3 42:05 MurchisonResidentialCorpHomeAmbulatory902369.7202:00AzaleaGardensMentalHealthAmbulatory9026102.131:45BrookridgeAssistedLivingAmbulatory90240603.652:35Wheelchairbound 90 71228 3.6 52:05 FavourHomeAmbulatory902684.6151:55KingsGroupHomeforChildrenAmbulatory902484.6222:00LockleyRoadHomeAmbulatory9026101.781:50MasonStreetGroupHomeAmbulatory9026102.131:45OliveHomeAmbulatory9026102.131:45RexRehab&NursingCenterofApexAmbulatory90220402.642:15Wheelchairbound907401052.643:20Bedridden 90153030 2.6 42:05 SeagravesFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory902483.5362:15ShackletonHomeAmbulatory902363.041:40SpringArborofApexAmbulatory90247602.982:40Wheelchairbound90719282.9162:15 HarrisNuclearPlant8 45KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary (min)ETE(hr:min)WakeMedApexHealthplexAmbulatory9027142.991:55Wheelchairbound9074282.982:10Bedridden 90 15 1 15 2.9 91:55 AventFerryHomeAmbulatory9026107.4121:55BassLakeHomeAmbulatory902684.1372:15CountryLaneGroupHomeAmbulatory 9026 10 7.4 121:55 HerbertReidHomeAmbulatory9025103.3111:55HickoryAvenueHomeAmbulatory 9026 10 6.8 362:20 St.Mark'sManorAmbulatory9029103.3111:55Trotter'sBluffAmbulatory9026107.4121:55CreekwayHomeAmbulatory9026100.4162:00Evans WalstonHomeAmbulatory902362.5131:50Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderlyAmbulatory90260601.4463:20Wheelchairbound9072141.4632:50HopeHouseAmbulatory902481.7242:05KintonCourtHomeAmbulatory90216101.7332:15LifeSkillsIndependentCare#1Ambulatory902480.8111:50Mim'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory902245.1462:20WakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacilityAmbulatory902001.9282:00Wheelchairbound90720281.9252:25Bedridden 90151530 1.9 252:25 WindsorPointContinuingCareAmbulatory902140601.3132:45Wheelchairbound9071001051.333:20Bedridden 90153530 1.3 192:20MaximumETE:3:20AverageETE:2:15Notes:1-RefertoTable8 4.Somefacilitiesuseminivansandpassengercarstoevacuate.Loadingtimesarelessforthesevehiclesthanforbuses HarrisNuclearPlant8 46KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table815.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)SanfordHealth&RehabAmbulatory100241601.932:45Wheelchairbound1007691051.933:30Bedridden1001527301.932:15Brown'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory10026123.352:00JamesRestHomeAmbulatory100228563.352:45Wheelchairbound100710283.352:15MurchisonResidentialCorpHomeAmbulatory1002369.7222:10AzaleaGardensMentalHealthAmbulatory10026102.131:55BrookridgeAssistedLivingAmbulatory100240603.652:45Wheelchairbound100712283.652:15FavourHomeAmbulatory1002684.672:00KingsGroupHomeforChildrenAmbulatory1002484.6322:20LockleyRoadHomeAmbulatory10026101.752:00MasonStreetGroupHomeAmbulatory10026102.131:55OliveHomeAmbulatory10026102.131:55RexRehab&NursingCenterofApexAmbulatory100220402.642:25Wheelchairbound1007401052.643:30Bedridden1001530302.642:15SeagravesFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory1002483.5392:30ShackletonHomeAmbulatory1002363.041:50SpringArborofApexAmbulatory100247602.9112:55Wheelchairbound100719282.962:30 HarrisNuclearPlant8 47KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)LoadingRate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)WakeMedApexHealthplexAmbulatory10027142.9202:15Wheelchairbound10074282.9152:25Bedridden100151152.9202:15AventFerryHomeAmbulatory10026107.4112:05BassLakeHomeAmbulatory1002684.1382:30CountryLaneGroupHomeAmbulatory10026107.4112:05HerbertReidHomeAmbulatory10025103.392:00HickoryAvenueHomeAmbulatory10026106.8342:25St.Mark'sManorAmbulatory10029103.362:00Trotter'sBluffAmbulatory10026107.4112:05CreekwayHomeAmbulatory10026100.4152:05Evans WalstonHomeAmbulatory1002362.5142:00Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderlyAmbulatory100260601.4583:40Wheelchairbound10072141.4602:55HopeHouseAmbulatory1002481.7252:15KintonCourtHomeAmbulatory100216101.7352:30LifeSkillsIndependentCare#1Ambulatory1002480.8122:00Mim'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory1002245.1622:50WakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacilityWheelchairbound100720281.9122:50Bedridden1001515301.9392:50WindsorPointContinuingCareAmbulatory1002140601.3193:00Wheelchairbound10071001051.393:35Bedridden1001535301.3192:30MaximumETE:3:40AverageETE:2:30Notes:1-RefertoTable8 4.Somefacilitiesuseminivansandpassengercarstoevacuate.Loadingtimesarelessforthesevehiclesthanforbuses HarrisNuclearPlant8 48KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table816.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceMedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)Loading Rate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)SanfordHealth&RehabAmbulatory110241601.932:55Wheelchairbound1107691051.933:40Bedridden1101527301.932:25Brown'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory11026123.352:10JamesRestHomeAmbulatory110228563.352:55Wheelchairbound110710283.352:25MurchisonResidentialCorpHomeAmbulatory1102369.7262:25AzaleaGardensMentalHealthAmbulatory11026102.142:05BrookridgeAssistedLivingAmbulatory110240603.663:00Wheelchairbound110712283.662:25FavourHomeAmbulatory1102684.682:10KingsGroupHomeforChildrenAmbulatory1102484.6342:35LockleyRoadHomeAmbulatory11026101.7102:10MasonStreetGroupHomeAmbulatory1102662.142:05OliveHomeAmbulatory11026102.142:05RexRehab&NursingCenterofApexAmbulatory110220402.642:35Wheelchairbound1107401052.643:40Bedridden1101530302.642:25SeagravesFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory1102483.5312:30ShackletonHomeAmbulatory1102363.052:05SpringArborofApexAmbulatory110247602.9113:05Wheelchairbound110719282.962:40 HarrisNuclearPlant8 49KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MedicalFacilityPatientMobilization(min)Loading Rate(minperperson)PeopleTotalLoadingTime(min)1Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)WakeMedApexHealthplexAmbulatory11027142.9242:30Wheelchairbound11074282.9202:40Bedridden110151152.9242:30AventFerryHomeAmbulatory11026107.4122:15BassLakeHomeAmbulatory1102684.1422:45CountryLaneGroupHomeAmbulatory11026107.4122:15HerbertReidHomeAmbulatory11025103.3142:15HickoryAvenueHomeAmbulatory11026106.8332:35St.Mark'sManorAmbulatory11029103.3102:15Trotter'sBluffAmbulatory11026107.4122:15CreekwayHomeAmbulatory11026100.4182:20Evans WalstonHomeAmbulatory1102362.5162:15Fuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderlyAmbulatory110260601.4643:55Wheelchairbound11072141.4653:10HopeHouseAmbulatory1102481.7252:25KintonCourtHomeAmbulatory110216101.7472:50LifeSkillsIndependentCare#1Ambulatory1102480.8122:10Mim'sFamilyCareHomeAmbulatory1102245.1953:30WakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacilityWheelchairbound110720281.9583:20Bedridden1101515301.9583:20WindsorPointContinuingCareAmbulatory1102140601.3223:15Wheelchairbound11071001051.3183:55Bedridden1101535301.3232:45MaximumETE:3:55AverageETE:2:40Notes:1-RefertoTable8 4.Somefacilitiesuseminivansandpassengercarstoevacuate.Loadingtimesarelessforthesevehiclesthanforbuses HarrisNuclearPlant8 50KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Table817.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimatesVehicleTypePeopleRequiringVehicleVehiclesdeployedStopsWeatherConditionsMobiliza tionTime(min)LoadingTimeat1 stStop(min)TraveltoSubsequentStops(min)TotalLoadingTimeatSubsequentStops(min)TravelTimetoEPZBoundary(min)ETE(hr:min)Buses75108Good9056335123:25Rain10070153:45Ice11077184:05WheelchairVans1954Good9072721122:40Rain10030152:55Ice11033183:10Ambulances952Good90151015122:25Rain10011152:40Ice11013172:50MaximumETE:4:05AverageETE:3:10 HarrisNuclearPlant9 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.19 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGYThissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesignedtoexpeditethemovementofevacuatingtraffic.Theresourcesrequiredtoimplementthisstrategyinclude:* Personnelwiththecapabilitiesofperformingtheplannedcontrolfunctionsoftrafficguides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers).* TheManualofUnifor mTrafficControlDevices(MUTCD)publishedbytheFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)oftheU.S.D.O.T.providesguidanceforTrafficControlDevicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.AllstateandmostcountytransportationagencieshaveaccesstotheMUTCD,whichisavailableon line:http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.govwhichprovidesaccesstotheofficialPDFversion.* Aplanthatdefinesalllocations,providesnecessarydetailsandisdocumentedinaformatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:1. FacilitateevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakesthemsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflowofotherevacuees.Theterms"facilitate"and"discourage"areemployedratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"toindicatetheneedforflexibilityinperformingthetrafficcontrolfunction.Therearealwayslegitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forex ample:* Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuating.* Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.* Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivity.Theimplementationofaplanmustalsobeflexibleenoughfortheapplicationofsoundjudgmentbythetrafficguide.

HarrisNuclearPlant9 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:1. TheexistingTCPsandSRBsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesintheirexistingemergencyplansserveasthebasisofthetrafficmanagementplan,asperNUREG/CR 7002.2. Computeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironment.Thisanalysisidentifiesthebestroutingandthosecriticalintersectionstha texperiencepronouncedcongestion.AnycriticalintersectionsthatarenotidentifiedintheexistingoffsiteplansaresuggestedasadditionalTCPsandSRBs3. Afieldsurveyofthehighwaynetworkwithin15milesofthepowerplant.Theschematicsdescribingtrafficandaccesscontrolatsuggeste dadditionalTCPsandSRBs,whicharepresentedinAppendixG,arebasedondatacollectedduringfieldsurveys,uponlargescalemaps,andonoverheadphotos.4. Consultationwithemergencymanagementandlawenforcementpersonnel.Trainedpersonnelwhoareexperiencedincontrollingtrafficandareawareofthelik elyevacuationtrafficpatternshavereviewedthecontroltacticsatthesuggestedadditionalTCPsandSRBs.5. PrioritizationofTCPsandSRBs.ApplicationoftrafficandaccesscontrolatsomeTCPsandSRBswillhaveamorepronouncedinfluenceonexpeditingtrafficmovementsthanatotherTCPsandSRBs.Forexampl e,TCPscontrollingtrafficoriginatingfromareasincloseproximitytothepowerplantcouldhaveamorebeneficialeffectonminimizingpotentialexposuretoradioactivitythanthoseTCPslocatedfarfromthepowerplant.Theseprioritieshavebeenreviewedandapprovedbystate/countyemergencymanagementrepresentativesandbylawenforcementpersonnel.Basedonthecomputeranalysis,rev isionstothreeTCPs,additionofsixnewTCPs,andadditionofonenewSRBarerecommended-seeAppendixG.ThecontroltacticsidentifiedintheschematicsinAppendixGhavebeenreviewedandapprovedbythestateandcountyemergencyplanners,an dlocalandstatelawenforcement.AsdiscussedinSection7.5,theroadwayimpactscenarioresultedinatmosta10 minuteincreaseinETE.ThisisnotasignificantchangeinETE.Thus,notrafficmanagementtacticsarenecessarytomitigatetheimpactsofapotentialroadwayclosurealongUS 1northboundorUS 64eastbound.TheETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingTCPlocationsintheoffsiteagencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatall"externalexternal"tripsareinterdictedanddivertedafter30minuteshaveelapsedfromtheATE.AlltransitvehiclesandotherrespondersenteringtheEPZtosupporttheevacuationareassumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningSRBsandTCPs.StudyAssumptions5and6inSection2.3discussSRBandTCPstaffingschedulesandoperations.

HarrisNuclearPlant10 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.110 EVACUATIONROUTESEvacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:* RoutingfromaSub ZonebeingevacuatedtotheboundaryoftheEvacuationRegionandthenceoutoftheEPZ.* Routingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncenters.EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsu chawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.ThisexpectationismetbytheDYNEVIImodelroutingtrafficawayfromthelocationoftheplant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoastobalancetrafficdemandrelativetotheavailablehighwaycapa citytotheextentpossible.SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.Theroutingoftransit dependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncentersisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswheretheseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.Figure10 1mapsthegeneralpopulationrecept ioncentersandrelocationschoolsforevacuees.ThemajorevacuationroutesfortheEPZarepresentedinFigure10 2.Itisassumedthatallschoolevacueeswillbetakentotheappropriaterelocationschoolandsubsequentlybepickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transit dependentevacueesaretransportedtothenearestreceptioncenterforeachcounty.Thisstudydoesnotconsiderthetransportofevacueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdomakethedecisiontorelocateevacuees.

HarrisNuclearPlant10 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 1.GeneralPopulationReceptionCentersandRelocationSchools HarrisNuclearPlant10 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Figure10 2.EvacuationRoutes APPENDIXAGlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms HarrisNuclearPlantA 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMSTableA 1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTermsTermDefinitionAnalysisNetworkAgraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysicalroadwaysystem,whichiscomprisedofdirectionallinksandnodes.LinkAnetworklinkrepresentsaspecific,one directionalsectionofroadway.Alinkhasbothphysical(length,numberoflanes,topology,etc.)andoperational(turnmovementpercentages,servicerate,free flowspeed)characteristics.MeasuresofEffectiven essStatisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.NodeAnetworknodegenerallyrepresentsanintersectionofnetworklinks.Anodehascontrolcharacteristics,i.e.,theallocationofservicetimetoeachapproachlink.OriginAlocationattachedtoanetworklink,withintheEPZorShadowRegion,wheretripsaregeneratedataspecifiedrateinvehiclesperhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotraveltotheirrespectivedestinations.PrevailingRoadwayandTrafficConditionsRelatestothephysicalfeaturesoftheroadway,thenature(e.g.,composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions(weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).ServiceRateMaximumrateatwhichvehicles,executingaspecificturnmaneuver,canbedischargedfromasectionofroadwayattheprevailingconditions,expressedinvehiclespersecond(vps)orvehiclesperhour(vph).ServiceVolumeMaximumnumberofvehicleswhichcanpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirectionduringaspecifiedtimeperiodwithoperatingconditionsataspecifiedLevelofService(TheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).SignalCycl eLengthThetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.SignalIntervalAsinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationisexpressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequenceofsignalintervals,usuallygreen ,yellow,red.

HarrisNuclearPlantA 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TermDefinitionSignalPhaseAsetofsignalindications(andintervals)whichservicesaparticularcombinationoftrafficmovementsonselectedapproachestotheintersection.Thephasedurationisexpressedinseconds.Traffic(Trip)AssignmentAprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayastosatisfyalltripobjectives(i.e.,thedesireofeac hvehicletotravelfromaspecifiedorigininthenetworktoaspecifieddestination)andtooptimizesomestatedobjectiveorcombinationofobjectives.Ingeneral,theobjectiveisstatedintermsofminimizingageneralized"cost".Forexample,"cost"maybeexpressedintermsoftraveltime.TrafficDensityThenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysectionofspecifiedlengthatapointintime,expressedasvehiclespermile(vpm).Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofal ltrafficgeneratedattheorigins.TheresultoftentakestheformofaTripTable,whichisamatrixoforigin destinationtrafficvolumes.TrafficSimulationAcomputermodeldesignedtorepl icatethereal worldoperationofvehiclesonaroadwaynetwork,soastoprovidestatisticsdescribingtrafficperformance.ThesestatisticsarecalledMeasuresofEffectiven ess.TrafficVolumeThenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirection,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.TravelModeDistinguishesbetweenprivateauto,bus,rail,pedestrianandairtravelmodes.TripTableorOrigin DestinationMatrixArect angularmatrixortable,whoseentriescontainthenumberoftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtimeperiod,thatareattractedto(andtraveltoward)eachofitsspecifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesperhour(vph)orinvehicles.TurningCapacityThecapacit yassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstreamwhichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatanintersection.

APPENDIXBDTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel HarrisNuclearPlantB 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODELThissectiondescribestheintegrateddynamictripassignmentanddistributionmodelnamedDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)thatisexpresslydesignedforuseinanalyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpath choiceprinciplesandisoneofthemodelsoftheDYNEVIISystem.TheDTRADmoduleimplementspath basedDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOrigin Destination(OD)tripsare"assigned"toroutesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.ToapplytheDYNEVIISystem,th eanalystmustspecifythehighwaynetwork,linkcapacityinformation,thetime varyingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestin ations)andtheoptimaldynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetravelingtoitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravel"cost".OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModelTheunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledinanevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialriskasrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthe"best"routes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese"best"routesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsandroutesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacueebehavior.Foreachorigin,asetof"candidatedestinationnodes"isselectedbythesoftwarelogicandbytheanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccessmajorhighways.Thespecificdestinationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersandtheselectionoftheconnectingpathsoftravel,arebothdeterminedbyDTRAD.ThisdeterminationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip"cost",asdiscussedlater.Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthenetwork(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimu lationmodel,executesasuccessionof"sessions"whereinitcomputestheoptimalroutingandselectionofdestinationnodesfortheconditionsthatexistatthattime.InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRADTheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.AnalgorithmwasdevelopedtosupporttheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.Anothe ralgorithmexecutesa"mapping"fromthespecified"geometric"network(link nodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,toa"path"networkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsareperformedonthe"path"network:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthe"geometric"network.

HarrisNuclearPlantB 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1DTRADDescriptionDTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.Whentheroadnetworkunderstudyislarge,multipleroutingoptionsareusuallyavailablebetweentriporiginsanddestinations.TheproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagatingthemoverthenetworklinksiscalledNetworkLoadingandisaddressedbyDYNEVIIusingmacroscopictrafficsimulationmodeling.TrafficassignmentdealswithcomputingthedistributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenO Ddemandsandisamodeloftheroutechoiceofthedrivers.Traveldemandchangessignificantlyovertime,andtheroadnetworkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,time varyingsignaltimingorreducedroadcapacitybecauseoflaneclosure,ortrafficcongestion.Toconsiderthesetimedependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.TheDTRADDTAmodulerepresentsthedynamicroutechoicebehaviorofdrivers,usingthespecificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutesthroughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbyth esimulationmodel).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetime dependentconditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofD TRADinclude: Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsomealsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral"efficient"routesforeachO Dpairfromwhichthedriverschoose. Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeof"discretechoicemodeling".Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdriversthatchooseeachrouteiscomputed.Themostprevalentmodelfordiscretechoicemodelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPath Size Logitmodel(PSL).PSLovercomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatinganadditionaldeterministicpathsizecorrectiontermtoaddresspathoverlappingintherandomutilityexpr ession. DTRADexecutestheTAalgorithmonanabstractnetworkrepresentationcalled"thepathnetwork"whichisbuiltfromtheactualphysicallink nodeanalysisnetwork.Thisexecutioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimesontheedgesofthepathnetworkdonotchangesignificantlyfromoneiterationtothenext.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser. Travel"cost"playsacrucialroleinroutechoice.InDTRAD,pathcostisalinearsummationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralizedcostforalink,a,isexpressedasaaaactls,where a c isthegeneralizedcostforlinka,and , ,and arecostcoefficientsforlinktraveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplementalcostsaredefinedasinvariantpropertiesofthenetworkmodel,whiletraveltimeisadynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel HarrisNuclearPlantB 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationtoconstantlyupdatethecostsofpaths.Theroutechoicedecisionmodelinthenextsimulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.Thisway,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyre assignedbasedontimedependentconditions.TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodelsisdepictedinFigureB 1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopBinthefigure. Thesupplementalcostisbasedonthe"survivaldistribution"(avariationoftheexponentialdistribution).TheInverseSurvivalFunctionisa"cost"terminDTRADtorepresentthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:s a=

ln(p),0pl; 0p=d n=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplantd 0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk=ScalingfactorThevalueofd o=15miles,theouterdistanceoftheshadowregion.Notethatthesupplementalcost,s a,oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)thepowerplant.

HarrisNuclearPlantB 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1NetworkEquilibriumIn1952,JohnWardropwrote:Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchawaythatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.Theabovestatementdescribesthe"UserEquilibrium"definition,alsocalledthe"SelfishDriverEquilibrium".Itisahypothesisthatrepres entsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeasdriverssearchoutalternativeroutestoidentifythoseroutesthatminimizetheirrespective"costs".Ithasbeenfoundthatthis"equilibrium"objectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealizedbymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,commuters).Effectively,suchdrivers"learn"whichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,thetrafficenvironment"settlesdown"toanear equilibriumstate.Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong termlearningexperiencewhichcanachieveanequilibriu mstate.Consequently,DTRADwasnotdesignedasanequilibriumsolution,buttorepresentdriversinanewandunfamiliarsituation,whorespondinaflexiblemannertoreal timeinformation(eitherbroadcastorobserved)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.

HarrisNuclearPlantB 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureB 1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterfaceStartofnextDTRADSession Set Clocktime.ArchiveSystemStateatDefinelatestLinkTurnPercentagesExecuteSimulationModelfromtime,(burntime)ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEattime,ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentagesRetrieveSystemStateat;ApplynewLinkTurnPercentsDTRADiterationconverges?

Nextiteration Simulatefrom(DTAsessionduration)SetClockto ABA Yes No B APPENDIXCDYNEVTrafficSimulationModel HarrisNuclearPlantC 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODELTheDYNEVtrafficsimulationmodelisamacroscopicmodelthatdescribestheoperationsoftrafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,queuelength,oneachlink ,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtimestep).Themodelgeneratestripsfr om"sources"andfromEntryLinksandintroducesthemontotheanalysisnetworkatratesspecifiedbytheanalystbasedonthemobilizationtimedistributions.Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertimeuntilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)suchasthoselistedinTableC 1.ModelFeat uresInclude: Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterativeprocedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepforthepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles. Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedtoestimateth enumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturnmovement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel. Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queuedandmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehiclespillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredandquantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineachtimestepofthesimulation.Thereisno"verticalstacking"ofqueuesonalink. Anylinkca naccommodate"sourceflow"fromzonesviasidestreetsandparkingfacilitiesthatarenotexplicitlyrepresented.Thisflowrepresentstheevacuatingtripsthataregeneratedatthesource. Therelat ionbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacityismonitoredeverytimestepforeverylinkandforeveryturnmovement.Iftheavailablestoragecapacityonalinkisexceededbythedemandforservice,thenthesimulatorappliesa"metering"ratetotheenteringtrafficfromboththeupstreamfeedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacit yisnotexceeded. A"pathnetwork"thatrepresentsthespecifiedtrafficmovementsfromeachnetworklinkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel. Atwo wayinterfacewithDTRAD:(1)provideslinktraveltimes;(2)receivesdatatha ttranslatesintolinkturnpercentages. ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN CalculatesETEstatistics HarrisNuclearPlantC 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Alltrafficsimulationmodelsaredata intensive.TableC 2outlinesthenecessaryinputdataelements.Toprovideanefficientframeworkfordefiningthesespecifications,thephysicalhighwayenvironmentisrepresentedasanetwork.Theunidirectionallinksofthenetworkrepresentroadwaysections:rural,multi lane,urbanstreetsorfreeways.Thenodesofth enetworkgenerallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges(e.g.alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).FigureC 1isanexampleofasmallnetworkrepresentation.Thefreewayisdefinedbythesequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExi tlinks,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithinagridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregrade separated.TableC 1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVIIMeasureUnitsAppliesToVehiclesDischargedVehiclesLink,Network,ExitLinkSpeedMiles/Hours(mph)Link,NetworkDensityVehicles/Mile/LaneLinkLevelofServiceLOSLinkContentVehiclesNetworkTravelTimeVehicle hoursNetworkEvacuatedVehiclesVehiclesNetwork,ExitLinkTripTravelTimeVehicleminutes/tripNetworkCapacityUtilizationPercentExitLinkAttractionPercentoftotalevacuatingvehiclesExitLinkMaxQueueVehiclesNode,ApproachTimeofMaxQueueHours:minutesNode,ApproachRouteStatisticsLength(mi);MeanSpeed(mph);TravelTime(min)RouteMeanTravelTimeMinutesEvacuationTrips;Network HarrisNuclearPlantC 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModelHIGHWAYNETWORK Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers Linklengths Numberoflanes(upto9)andchannelization Turnbays(1to3lanes) Destination(exit)nodes Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink NodeCoordinates(X,Y) NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriodTRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS Trafficsignals:link specific,turnmovementspecific Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals) StopandYieldsigns Right turn on red(RTOR) Routediversionspecifications Turnrestrictions Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movement specific)DRIVER'SANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS Driver's(vehicle specific)responsemechanisms:free flowspeed,dischargeheadway Busroutedesignation.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional) DurationofDTAsessions Durationofsimulation"burntime" DesirednumberofdestinationnodesperoriginINCIDENTS IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks HarrisNuclearPlantC 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork 8001 8011 3 6 9 12 14 15 16 19 17 2 8107 8 8012 13 22 8009 8010 8005 23 8003 8104 5 10 11 8014 25 24 21 8008 80078006 8004 8024 208002 Entry,ExitNodesarenumbered8xxx HarrisNuclearPlantC 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.1 MethodologyC.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagramItisnecessarytodefinethefundamentaldiagramdescribingflow densityandspeed densityrelationships.Ratherthan"settlingfor"atriangularrepresentation,amorerealisticrepresentationthatincludesa"capacitydrop",(I R)atthecriticaldensitywhenflowconditionsentertheforcedflowregime,isdevelopedandcalibratedforeachlink.Thisrepresentation,showninFigureC 2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, ,andthenalinearreductioninspeedintherange,thedensityatcapacity.Intheflow densityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange,whichroughlyrepresentsthe"stop and go"conditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflowrate,correspondingtoisapproximatedatAlinearrelationshipbetweencompletesthediagramshowninFigureC 2.TableC 3isaglossaryofterms.Thefundamentaldiagramisappliedtomovingtrafficoneverylink.Thespecifiedcalibrationvaluesforeachlinkare:(1)Freespeed,;(2)Capacity,;(3)Criticaldensity, (4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity,Then,SettingthenforItcanbeshownthatC.1.2 TheSimulationModelThesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceof"unitproblems".Eachunitproblemcomputesthemovementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC 3isarepresentationoftheunitprobleminthetime distanceplane.TableC 3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedinthefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.

HarrisNuclearPlantC 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 2.FundamentalDiagrams HarrisNuclearPlantC 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht 1>0 meDistanceDownUp HarrisNuclearPlantC 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableC 3.GlossaryCapThemaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischargefromalinkwithinatimeinterval.EThenumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatenterthelinkoverthetimeinterval.Theportion,E TI ,canreachthestop barwithintheTI.G/CThegreentime:cycletimeratiothatservicesthevehiclesofaparticularturnmovementonalink.hThemeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.kDensityinvehiclesperlanepermile.TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,onalink.LThelengthofthelinkinfeet.Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofatimeinterval.LNThenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoserviceaparticularmovementonalink.Themeaneffectivelength ofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.MMeteringfactor(Multiplier):1.Thenumberofmovingvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularmovement,thataremovingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumedtobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.OThetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkoveratimeinterval.Thecomponentsofthevehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatwereMovingwithinthelinkatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.Thepercentage,expressedasafraction,ofthetotalflowonthelinkthatexecutesaparticularturnmovement,x.

HarrisNuclearPlantC 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovementintheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateoflinkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM.RThefactorthatisappliedtothecapacityofalinktorepresentthe"capacitydrop"whentheflowconditionmovesintotheforcedflowregime.Thelowercapacityatthatpointisequalto.RCapTheremainingcapacityavailabletoservicevehiclesofaparticularmovementafterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressedasvehicles.Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirstsecondsofatimeinterval,canreachthestop bar(intheabsenceofaqueuedown stream)withinthesametimeinterval.TIThetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.vThemeanspeedoftravel,infeetpersecond(fps)ormilesperhour(mph),ofmovingvehi clesonthelink.ThemeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithintheTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.WThewidthoftheintersectioninfeet.Thisisthedifferencebetweenthelinklengthwhichextendsfromstop bartostop barandtheblocklength.

HarrisNuclearPlantC 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Theformulationandtheassociatedlogicpresentedbelowaredesignedtosolvetheunitproblemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementservicedoneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationoftheevacuation. 1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity,theR-factor,andenteringtraffic,usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.Foreachsubsequentsweep,aretherelevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)overthisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.Setiterationcounter,n=0,2. usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthefundamentaldiagram.3. 4. 5. Endif6. 7.

HarrisNuclearPlantC 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 9.10.EndifEndifEndif11. where=densityatthebeginningoftheTI=densityattheendoftheTI=densityatthemid pointoftheTIAllvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.

HarrisNuclearPlantC 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TIt 3Q'et 1L 3vQ e vv QQ bM b12. EndifComputationofunitproblemisnowcomplete.Checkforexcessiveinflowcausingspillback.13. Thenumberofexcessvehiclesthatcausespillbackis:whereWisthewidthoftheupstreamintersection.Topreventspillback,metertheoutflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbytheamount,SB.Thatis,setThismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobeappliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.AlgorithmAThisanalysisaddressestheflowenvironmentoveraTIduringwhichmovingvehiclescanjoinastandingordischargingqueue.Forthecaseshown,aqueueoflength,formedbythatportionofthatreachesthestop barwithintheTI,butcouldnotdischargeduetoinadequatecapacity.Thatis,Thisqueuelength,canbeextendedtobytrafficenteringtheapproachduringthecurrentTI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthequeuewithintheTI.Aportionoftheenteringvehicles,willlikelyjointhequeue.ThisanalysiscalculatesfortheinputvaluesofL,TI,v,E,t, ,LN,.

Recognizingthatthefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefortoobtain:

HarrisNuclearPlantC 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Ifthedenominator,ThecompleteAlgorithmAconsidersallflowscenarios;spacelimitationprecludesitsinclusion,here.C.1.3 LaneAssignmentThe"unitproblem"issolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessarytocalculateavalue,ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecifiedby,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,thentheproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainun channelizedlanesonalink,thenananalysisisundertakentosubdi videthenumberofthesephysicallanesintoturnmovementspecificvirtuallanes,LN x.C.2 ImplementationC.2.1 ComputationalProcedureThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigureC 4.Asdiscussedearlier,thesimulationmodelprocessestrafficflowforeachlinkindependentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststepistoexecut eanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedsothatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthesamenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibletoguaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulationiscompleted.Withineachtimestep,theprocessingperformsaseriesof"sweeps"overallnetworklinks;thisisnecessarytoensurethatthetrafficflowissynchronousovertheentirenetwork.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthecontextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSareal ldefinedforeachlinksuchthattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutboundlinks.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.Withineachsweep,processingsolvesthe"unitproblem"foreachturnmovementoneachlink.WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm HarrisNuclearPlantC 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,ifany,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltimingneededtodefinethisratioisaninputrequirementforthemodel.Themodelalsohasthecapabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsrespondingtothetime varyingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischargefromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkattheendofthetimeintervalasstrat ifiedbyqueuedandmovingvehicles:Theprocedureconsiderseachmovementseparately(multi piping).Afterallnetworklinksareprocessedforagivennetworksweep,theupdatedconsistentvaluesofenteringflows,E;meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythe"nospillback"condition.Theprocedurethenperformstheunitproblemsolutionsforallnetworklinksduringthefollowingsweep.Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandS"settledown"forallnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyunder saturatedorinfoursweepsinthepresenceofextensivecongestionwithlinkspillback.(Theinitialsweepoverea chlinkusesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,theprocedurecomputesandstoresallmeasuresofeffectivenessforeachlinkandturnmovementforoutputpurposes.ItthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthevaluesofforthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesofattheendofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntiltheendoftherun.Notethatthereisnospace discretizationotherthanthespecificationofnetworklinks.

HarrisNuclearPlantC 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureC 4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC 3) SequenceNetworkLinksNextTime step,ofduration,TINextsweep;DefineE,M,SforallLinksNextLinkNextTurnMovement,x Getlanes,ServiceRate,;GetinputstoUnitProblem:,ESolveUnitProblem:LastMovement?LastLink?LastSweep?Calc.,storeallLinkMOESetupnextTI:LastTime-step?DONE ABCDDCBANo No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes HarrisNuclearPlantC 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)TheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedtoidentifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandontheexpecteddirectionoftravel.ThisalgorithmalsosupportstheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(O Dmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.FigureB 1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEVIIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRAD"sessions";eachsuchsessioncomputestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfromeachorigintopathsconnectingitwithitsdestinationsinsuchawayastominimizethenetwork widecostfunction.TheoutputoftheDTRADmodelisasetofupdatedlinkturnpercentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.AsindicatedinFigureB 1,thesimu lationmodelsupportstheDTRADsessionbyprovidingitwithoperationallinkMOEthatareneededbythepathchoicemodelandincludedintheDTRADcostfunction.TheseMOErepresenttheoperationalstateofthenetworkatatime,whichlieswithinthesessionduration,.This"burntime",isselectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechangeinnetworkoperationsoverthisburntimeusingthelatestsetoflinkturnpercentagescomputedbytheDTRADmodel.UponconvergenceoftheDTRADiterativeprocedure,thesimulationmodelacceptsthelatestturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTAmodel,returnstotheorigintime,andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationattime,AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntiltheendoftheDYNEVIIrun.AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.

APPENDIXDDetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure HarrisNuclearPlantD 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDUREThisappendixdescribestheactivitiesthatwereperformedtocomputeEvacuationTimeEstimates.TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD 1.Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementintheflowdiagram.Step1ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEPZboundaryinformationandcreateaGISbasemap.ThebasemapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)fromthepowerplantlocation.Thebasemapincorporatesthelocalroadwaytopology,asuitabletopographicbackgroundandtheEPZboundary.Step22010CensusblockinformationwasobtainedinGISformat.ThisinformationwasusedtoestimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegionandtodefinethespatialdistributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.Dataforemployees,transients,schools,andotherfacilitieswereobtainedfromthecountyemergencymanagementdepartments.Step3Akickoffmeetingwasconductedwithmajorstakeholders(stateandlocalemergencymanagers,on siteandoff siteutilityemergencymanagers,localandstatelawenforcementagencies).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,identifykeyagencypersonnel,andindicatethedatarequirementsforthestudy.Specificrequestsforinformationwerepres entedtocountyemergencymanagers.UniquefeaturesofthestudyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETEstudy.Step4Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodeterminethegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsectionofroadway,whetherthereareanyturnrestrictionsorspecialtreatmentoftrafficatintersections,thetypeandfunctioningoftrafficcontroldevices,gatheringsignaltimingsforpre timedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealisticvaluesofroadwaycapacity.Step5AtelephonesurveyofhouseholdswithintheEPZwasconductedtoidentifyhouseholddynamics,tripgenerationcharacteristics,andevacuation relateddemographicinformationoftheEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincludingtheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredtoperformpre evacuationmobilizationactivities.

HarrisNuclearPlantD 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step6Acomputerizedrepresentationofthephysicalroadwaysystem,calledalink nodeanalysisnetwork,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryofthenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduringtheroadsurvey(Step4).Estimatesofhighwaycapacityforeachlinkandotherlink specificcharacteristicswereintroducedtothenetworkdescription.Trafficsignaltimingswereinputaccordingly.Thelink nodeanalysisnetworkwasimportedintoaGISmap.2010Censusdatawereoverlaidinthemap,andorigincentroidswheretripswouldbegeneratedduringtheevacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.Step7TheEPZissubdividedinto14sub zones.Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupingsofsub zones)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.Theneedforevacuationcanoccuroverarangeoftime of day,day of week,seasonalandweather relatedconditions.Scenariosweredevelopedtocapturethevariationinevacuationdemand,highwaycapa cityandmobilizationtime,fordifferenttimeofday,dayoftheweek,timeofyear,andweatherconditions.Step8TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentanddistributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototypeevacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.Step9Aftercreatingthisinputstream,theDYNEVIISystemwasexecutedontheprototypeevacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriateNRCguidelines.DYNEVIIcontainsanextensivesuiteofdatadiagnosticswhichcheckthecompletenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarninganderrormessagesproducedbythemodelandthencorrectsthedatabasetocreateaninputstreamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.Themodelassignsdestinationstoallorigincent roidsconsistentwitha(general)radialevacuationoftheEPZandShadowRegion.Theanalystmayoptionallysupplementand/orreplacethes emodel assigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthetopologyoftheanalysishighwaynetwork.Themodelproduceslinkandnetwork widemeasuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.Step10Theresultsgeneratedbytheprototypeevacuationcasearecriticallyexamined.Theexaminationincludesobservingtheanimatedgraphics(usingtheEVANsoftwarewhichoperatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.Thisisalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossessthenecessarypracticalexperien cetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofanyproblemsreflectedintheresults.

HarrisNuclearPlantD 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Essentially,theapproachistoidentifythosebottlenecksinthenetworkthatrepresentlocationswherecongestedconditionsarepronouncedandtoidentifythecauseofthiscongestion.Thiscausecantakemanyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftripgeneration,improperrouting,ashortfallofcapacity,orasaquantitativeflawinthewaythephysicalsystemwasrepresentedintheinputstream.Thisexaminationleadstooneoftwoconclusions: Theresultsaresatisfactory;or Theinputstreammustbemodifiedaccordingly.Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebasedupontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresultsofthelatestprototypeevacuationcaseiterationwiththepreviousones.Iftheresultsaresatisfactoryintheopinionoftheuser,thentheprocesscontinueswithStep13.Otherwise,proceedtoStep11.Step11Therearemany"treatments"availabletotheuserinresolvingapparentproblems.Thesetreatmentsrangefromdecisionstoreroutethetrafficbyassigningadditionalevacuationdestinationsforoneormoresources,imposingturnrestrictionswheretheycanproducesignificantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionssoastoprovideimprovedserviceforoneormoremovements,orinprescribingspecifictreatmentsforchannelizingtheflowsoastoexpeditethemovementoftrafficalongmajorroadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototypeevacuationcaseinputstream.Alltreatmentsaredesignedtoimprovetherepr esentationofevacuationbehavior.Step12Asnotedabove,thechangestotheinputstreammustbeimplementedtoreflectthemodificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnstoStep9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.Step13Evacuationoftransit dependentevacueesandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuationanalysis.Fixedroutingfortransitbusesandforschoolbuses,ambulances,andothertransitvehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEVIIgeneratesroutespecificspeedsovertimeforuseintheestimationofevacuationtimesforthetransitdependentandspecialf acilitypopulationgroups.Step14Theprototypeevacuationcasewasusedasthebasisforgeneratingallregionandscenario specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuserinterface.Foreachspecificcase,thepopulationtobeevacuated,thetripgenerationdistributions,thehighwaycapacityandspeeds,andotherfactorsareadjustedtoproduceacustomizedcase specificdataset.

HarrisNuclearPlantD 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Step15AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswereavailable,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamicroutingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.Step16Oncevehicularevacuationresultsareaccepted,averagetravelspeedsfortransitandspecialfacilityrouteswereusedtocomputeevacuationtimeestimatesfortransit dependentpermanentresidents,schools,hospitals,andotherspecialfacilities.Step17Thesimulationresultsareanalyzed,tabulatedandgraphed.Theresultswerethendocumented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR 7002.Step18Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklist(seeAppendixN)wascompleted.Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthechecklist.

HarrisNuclearPlantD 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FigureD 1.FlowDiagramofActivitiesCreateGISBaseMap GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDataforStudyArea FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyAreaConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholdersCreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenariosCreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStreamConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTripGenerationCharacteristics ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase B A Step1 Step2 Step3 Step4 Step5 Step6 Step7 Step8 Step9 ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCaseusingEVANandDYNEVIIOutputModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelopTrafficControlTreatments A BModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototypeEvacuationCaseEstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuationRoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAllEvacuationCases ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAllEvacuationCases UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoComputeETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes DocumentationCompleteETECriteriaChecklist ResultsSatisfactory Step10 Step11 Step12 Step13 Step14 Step15 Step16 Step17 Step18 APPENDIXEFacilityData HarrisNuclearPlantE 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1E. FACILITYDATAThefollowingtableslistpopulationinformation,asofAugust2012,forspecialfacilities,transientattractionsandmajoremployersthatarelocatedwithintheHNPEPZ.Specialfacilitiesaredefinedasschools,childcarecenters,hospitalsandothermedicalcarefacilities.Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetablesforcampgrounds,parksandcommunitycenters,golfcoursesan dlodgingfacilities.Employmentdataisincludedinthetablesformajoremployers.Eachtableisgroupedbycounty.Thelocationofthefacilityisdefinedbyitsstraight linedistance(miles)anddirection(magneticbearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant.Mapsofeachschool,childcarecent er,medicalfacility,majoremployer,campground,parkandcommunitycenter,golfcourseandlodgingfacilityarealsoprovided.

HarrisNuclearPlantE 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaffCHATHAMCOUNTYM6.8WMoncureElementarySchool600MoncureSchoolRdMoncure(919)5423725285 45ChathamCountySubtotals:28545HARNETTCOUNTYS.R.112.5SELafayetteElementarySchool108LafayetteSchoolFuquay Varina(919)5524353780 80 HarnettCountySubtotals:78080LEECOUNTYS.R.111.1WSWDeepRiverElementarySchool4000DeepRiverRdSanford(919)7762722638100 LeeCountySubtotals:638100WAKECOUNTYE9.2NEA.V.BaucomElementarySchool400HunterSt Apex(919)3872168962100 E8.3NEApexElementarySchool700TingenRd Apex(919)3872150670 83 E8.8NEApexMiddleSchool400EMooreSt Apex(919)38721811,086150 E10.1NEApexSeniorHighSchool 21501LauraDuncanRdApex(919)38722082,300200 E9.3NELufkinRoadMiddleSchool1002LufkinRd Apex(919)38744651,010100 E7.8NNEOliveChapelElementarySchool1751OliveChapelRdApex(919)3874440933130 E7.7NESt.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool625MagdalaPl Apex(919)6574800704 65 E9.6NEThalesAcademy1177AmbergateSt Apex(919)3033108319 30 F5.9EHollyGroveElementarySchool1451AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)5771700980115 F6.1EHollyGroveMiddleSchool1401AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)56741771,136100 F8.0EHollyRidgeElementarySchool900HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)5771300724 80 F8.0EHollyRidgeMiddleSchool950HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)55726601,033100 F7.4EHollySpringsElementarySchool401HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)55726601,121126 F6.0EHollySpringsHighSchool5329CassHoltRd HollySprings(919)46386062,108150 F9.6ENewSchool,Inc.Montessori5617SunsetLakeRdHollySprings(919)3033636180 35 G9.7ESEFuquay VarinaMiddleSchool109NEnnisStFuquay Varina(919)5572727903 98 G9.2ESEFuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool201BengalDrFuquay Varina(919)55725111,925150 G8.7EHerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool2255HerbertAkinsRdFuquay Varina(919)5674100867 98 G8.8ESELincolnHeightsElementarySchool307BridgeStFuquay Varina(919)5572587474 95 G7.8ESouthernWakeAcademyHighSchool5108OldPowellRd HollySprings(919)5679955119 15WakeCountySubtotals:19,5542,020TOTAL:21,2572,245 HarrisNuclearPlantE 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 2.ChildCareCenterswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaffWAKECOUNTYE9.9ENEAllAboutKids3901KildaireFarmRdCary(919)303776712530E8.9NEApexBaptistChurchPreschool110SouthSalemStApex(919)362617617424E9.4NEApexChildCarewithDebbie102BeechHollowPl Apex(919)363991152 E8.9NEApexUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool100S.HughesStApex(919)36278077825E9.5ENEEarthAngel'sDayCareHome2909EarthDrApex(919)362516681E9.0NEEdithFranklinDayCareHome501EChathamStApex(919)362775351E8.7ENEGoddardSchoolApex903OliveChapelRdApex(919)362399912026E10.1ENEGraceChurchPreschool 23725KildareFarmRdApex(919)36293558213E8.7NEGrowingYearsLearningCenter470WestWilliamsStApex(919)387818910014E10.2NEHopeChapelPreschool 26175OldJenksRdApex(919)38781897515E10.0NEJudy'sHomeCare1300LauraDuncanRdApex(919)362519151E7.9ENEKarin' 4 Kidz201RidgeLakeRdApex(919)387285182E10.3NELori'sFamilyDayCare 22610HaventreeCtApex(919)387141921E9.7NEMoravicFamilyDayCare1814MistyHollowLnApex(919)367757951E8.7NNEPlayCare1422FairfaxWoodsDrApex(919)303931561E8.8NEVickie'sDayCareHome410EChathamStApex(919)362770251E9.7ENEWoodhavenBaptistPre school4000KildareFarmRdApex(919)362390910215F8.3ENEHollySpringsLearningCenter1180HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)577611915930F7.5ENEHollySpringsSchoolForEarlyEducation101ArborCreekDrHollySprings(919)30390098823F6.2EHomeAwayFromHomeChildcare416ClineFallsDrHollySprings(919)538272551F7.5ENEKiddieAcademyofHollySprings150RosewoodCentreDrHollySprings(919)367008814525F7.3ENEKris'HomeSweetHomeDaycare420CaymanAveHollySprings(919)552400251F7.5ENELittleDreamersPreschool114HyannisDrHollySprings(919)303343411110F7.3ESisters'ChildCareServices400EarpStHollySprings(919)5529624204F9.7ENEStellaLowerySmallDayCareHome102OaklandDrApex(919)362131351 HarrisNuclearPlantE 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnroll mentStaffF9.3ENESunriseUnitedMethodistChurchPreschool5420SunsetLakeRdHollySprings(919)30337206616F8.0ENETheCarolinaSchool10308HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)55755055010G9.3EAMother'sLove524DogwoodCreekPlFuquay Varina(919)552544851G9.1ESEChildcareNetwork-Fuquay Varina350W.JonesStFuquay Varina(919)557121911319G9.6ESEFuquay VarinaBaptistWeeCare301NWoodrowStFuquay Varina(919)55295869823G9.7ESEFuquay VarinaUMCPreschoolSeedsofFaith100SJuddPkwySEFuquay Varina(919)557156818027G9.3ESEGingerbreadLittleversity Downtown211RailroadStFuquay Varina(919)55247239916G9.6ESELittleAngelsPreparatory724SMainStFuquay Varina(919)55255755010G10.2ESELittleMiracles 2428BarnViewCtFuquay Varina(919)557127241G9.0ESEReadyOrNotHereIGrow201PowhatanDrFuquay Varina(919)55233329215G9.0ESEShiningStarChildCareHome516NatureWalkRdFuquay Varina(919)567073851G8.3ESouthWakePreschool&Academy2275NGrasslandDrFuquay Varina(919)5771144377G9.8ESpinningWheelsLearningCenter6225SunsetLakeRdFuquay Varina(919)3427009247G9.0ESEVanessaBland'sSmallDayCareHome829AlderleafDrFuquay Varina(919)552098271WakeCountySubtotals:2,263419TOTAL:2,273422Notes1S.R.isShadowRegion.CountyplansevacuatethesetwofacilitiesduetotheircloseproximitytotheEPZboundary2Facilityislocatedgreaterthan10milesfromtheHNP,however,stillresideswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 3.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCap acityCurrentCensusAmbul atoryPatientsWheelchairPatientsBedriddenPatientsLEECOUNTYJ10.4WSWSanfordHealth&Rehab 22702FarrellRdSanford(919)7769602137137416927LeeCountySubtotals:137137416927WAKECOUNTYA2.4NEBrown'sFamilyCareHome8416JamesRestHomeRdNewHill(919)362668666600A2.3NEJamesRestHome8420JamesRestHomeRdNewHill(919)3628856403828100C4.7EMurchisonResidentialCorpHome533TexannaWayHollySprings(919)557671233300E9.1NEAzaleaGardensMentalHealth413CulvertStApex(919)387139166600E8.4NEBrookridgeAssistedLiving312LynchStApex(919)3626266555240120E8.0ENEFavourHome202LindellDriveApex(919)362835366600E7.6NNEKingsGroupHomeforChildren109EveningStarDrApex(919)303500244400E9.2ENELockleyRoadHome4617LockleyRdHollySprings(919)303566566600E9.1NEMasonStreetGroupHome306N.MasonStApex(919)387588166600E9.0NEOliveHome707OliveStApex(919)387708066600E8.4NERexRehab&NursingCenterofApex911S.HughesStApex(919)363601110790204030E7.4NESeagravesFamilyCareHome1052IrongateDrApex(919)362855664400E8.0NEShackletonHome1105ShackletonRdApex(919)267575933300E8.7NESpringArborofApex901SpringArborCtApex(919)3039990766647190 HarrisNuclearPlantE 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCap acityCurrentCensusAmbul atoryPatientsWheelchairPatientsBedriddenPatientsE8.7NEWakeMedApexHealthplex 1120HealthplexWayApex(919)38702281212741F6.5EAventFerryHome904AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)557633666600F7.8EBassLakeHome408BassLakeRdHollySprings(919)557384466600F6.6ECountryLaneGroupHome534CountryLnHollySprings(919)552545766600F8.5ENEHerbertReidHome3733HeritageMeadowsLnHollySprings(919)363531155500F7.0EHickoryAvenueHome112HickoryAveHollySprings(919)5525407666F8.6ENESt.Mark'sManor3735HeritageMeadowsLnHollySprings(919)363531199900F6.5ETrotter'sBluff912AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)557633766600G10.2ESECreekwayHome 2424CreekwayDrFuquay Varina(919)552435966600G9.5EEvans WalstonHome808HawksViewCtFuquay Varina(919)552131233300G9.8ESEFuquay VarinaHomesfortheElderly1012SMainStFuquay Varina(919)552367180626020G9.8EHopeHouse821BrookhannahCtFuquay Varina(919)557437144400G9.4ESEKintonCourtHome301SunsetDrFuquay Varina(919)55769671616 1600 G9.9ESELifeSkillsIndependentCare#1800PerryHowardRdFuquay Varina(919)577002144400G6.9SEMim'sFamilyCareHome6337MimsRdHollySprings(919)552645562200G9.4ESEWakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacility400RansomStFuquay Varina(919)3504600363502015G9.0ESEWindsorPointContinuingCare1221BroadStFuquay Varina(919)552458030027514010035WakeCountySubtotals:84175947120781TOTAL:978896512276108Notes1Thisfacilityisastand aloneEmergencyDepartmentwithaconstantlychangingbreakdownofpatients.Theaveragepercentagebreakdownofambulatory,wheelchairboundandbedriddenpatientsforallothermedicalfacilitieswasappliedforthisfacility.2Facilityislocatedgreaterthan10milesfromtheHNP,however,stillresideswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 4.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees (NonEPZ)LEECOUNTY J10.4WSWSanfordHealth&Rehab 1,2,32702FarrellRdSanford(919)776960211052%57LeeCountySubtotals:11057CHATHAMCOUNTY K5.5WSWArclin790CorinthRdMoncure(919)5422526 2375%17 K6.1SWGeneralShaleBrickCompany300BrickPlantRdMoncure(919)7746533 4550%23 K5.6WSWMoncurePlywood306CorinthRdMoncure(919)5422311 9095%86 K5.1WPerformanceFibers338PeaRidgeRd NewHill(919)542220018060%108 K2.9WTriangleBrickCompany294KingRdMoncure(919)2265622 5025%13 L7.2NBuildersFirstSource 23RedCedarWay Apex(919)3634956 9050%45ChathamCountySubtotals:478292 WAKECOUNTY A1.8NWDomtarPaperCompany7634OldUSHwy1NewHill(919)36796963050%15A2.2NEHarrisE&ECenter3932NewHillHollemanRdNewHill(919)362326110063%63A0.0HarrisNuclearPlant5421ShearonHarrisRdNewHill(919)363056070063%441E9.2NEA.V.BaucomElementarySchool 1400HunterStApex(919)387216810052%52E8.3NEApexElementarySchool 1700TingenRdApex(919)38721508352%43E8.8NEApexMiddleSchool 1400EMooreStApex(919)387218115052%78E8.8NEApexPublicWorks105UpchurchStApex(919)36281664950%25E10.1NEApexSeniorHighSchool 1,31501LauraDuncanRdApex(919)387220820052%104E8.8NEApexToolGroup(CooperHandTools)1000LufkinRdApex(919)818585118050%90E9.3NEApexTownHall73HunterSt Apex(919)2493400 7250%36 E8.9NNECarrabba'sItalianGrill1201HaddonHallDr Apex(919)3876336 3050%15 E9.0NNEChili'sGrill&Bar1120BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)38777013250%16E7.6ENEEMCCorp5800TechnologyDr Apex(919)362480040850%204 E9.4NEFoodLion620LauraDuncanRd Apex(919)3623904 3650%18 E8.9NEHarrisTeeter(Apex#58)750WWilliamsSt Apex(919)3623782 6250%31 E9.0NNEHomeDepotApex1000VisionDrApex(919)38765544050%20E8.9NNEKohl's1301BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)38774997250%36 HarrisNuclearPlantE 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees (NonEPZ)E8.7NELowe'sFoods(Apex#184)5400ApexPeakway Apex(919)3635376 7550%38 E8.9NNELowe'sHomeImprovement1101BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)30342006050%30E9.3NELufkinRoadMiddleSchool 11002LufkinRdApex(919)387446510052%52E7.8NNEOliveChapelElementarySchool 11751OliveChapelRdApex(919)387444013052%68E8.6NEPottersIndustries,Inc.820LufkinRd Apex(919)3627574 6050%30 E8.8NNERedRobinGourmetBurgers1431BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)36385993050%15E8.4NERexRehab&NursingCenterofApex 1911S.HughesSt.AApex(919)36360112252%11E7.7NESt.MaryMagdaleneCatholicSchool 1625MagdalaPlApex(919)65748006552%34E8.8NNETarget1201BeaverCreekCommonsDrApex(919)372140518650%93E9.4NETipperTieInc.2000LufkinRdApex(919)36288117550%38E8.7NEWakemedApexHealthplex120HealthplexWayApex(919)35009895050%25E7.7NEWalmart(Apex#3889)3151ApexPeakwayApex(919)36237375250%26F9.4NEFoodLion517NorthMainStHollySprings(919)55711753350%17F9.3ENEHarrisTeeter(HollySprings#118)5277SunsetLakeRdHollySprings(919)36330597250%36F6.6EHarrisTeeter(HollySprings#311)324VillageWalkDrHollySprings(919)55215965750%29F5.9EHollyGroveElementarySchool 11451AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)577170011552%60F6.1EHollyGroveMiddleSchool 11401AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)567417710052%52F8.0EHollyRidgeElementarySchool 1900HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)57713008052%42F8.0EHollyRidgeMiddleSchool 1950HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)557266010052%52F7.4EHollySpringsElementarySchool 1401HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)557266012652%66F6.0EHollySpringsHighSchool 15329CassHoltRdHollySprings(919)463860615052%78F7.0EHollySpringsTownHall128SouthMainStHollySprings(919)557390310550%53F5.8ENEIdealLandscaping131TraditionTrailHollySprings(919)56733256050%30 HarrisNuclearPlantE 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%Non EPZEmployees (NonEPZ)F7.4ELowe'sFood(HollySprings#207)550HollySpringsRdHollySprings(919)57769716350%32F5.1ENENovartis475GreenOaksPkwyHollySprings(919)577500030050%150F6.7ERexExpressCareofHollySprings781AventFerryRdHollySprings(919)56761205550%28F6.9EWalmart(HollySprings#4458)7016GBAlfordHwyHollySprings(919)55791815250%26F6.1ENEWarpTechnologiesInc.601IrvingPkwyHollySprings(919)55223117550%38G8.5EBerk Tek(NexanCompany)100TechnologyParkLnFuquay Varina(919)57720235450%27G9.4ESEBobBarkerCompany134NorthMainStFuquay Varina(919)552989519050%95G9.4ESEFidelityBank100NMainStFuquay Varina(919)55222427050%35G9.7ESEFuquay VarinaMiddleSchool 1109NEnnisStFuquay Varina(919)55727279852%51G9.2ESEFuquay VarinaSeniorHighSchool 1201BengalDrFuquay Varina(919)557251115052%78G8.7EHerbertAkinsRoadElementarySchool 12255HerbertAkinsRdFuquay Varina(919)56741009852%51G10.0ESEHomeDepot-Fuquay Varina901EastBroadStFuquay Varina(919)55228815250%26G10.5ESEKrogerBakery 31371EastBroadStFuquay Varina(919)56774236550%33G8.8ESELincolnHeightsElementarySchool 1307BridgeStFuquay Varina(919)55725879552%49G9.4ESEWakeMedFuquaySkilledNursingFacility 1,2400RansomSt.Fuquay Varina(919)35046005652%29G10.2ESEWalmart(FuquayVarina#2836)31051EastBroadStFuquay Varina(919)56723505050%25G9.0ESEWindsorPointContinuingCare 1,21221BroadStFuquay Varina(919)552458016052%83WakeCountySubtotals:5,9303,118TOTAL:6,5183,467Notes1Anaverageof52%nonEPZemployees(baseduponthosefacilitieswhichdidprovidedetaileddata)wasappliedtothosefacilitieswhichdidnotprovidedetaileddata2Numberofem p lo y eesdurin gmaxshiftwasassumedtobethetotalnumberofem p lo y eesforthosefacilitieswhichdidnotp rovidedetaileddata3Facilityislocatedgreaterthan10milesfromtheHNP,however,stillresideswithintheEPZAllemployershavemorethan50totalemployees,despitesomehavingamaximumshiftlessthan50 HarrisNuclearPlantE 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 5.CampgroundswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesCHATHAMCOUNTYK5.0SWDickensRVPark2501CorinthRdMoncure(919)7088207216108L6.2WNWNewHopeOverlookCampground(JordanLake)HiddenFieldLnNCStateParks(919)362085633884L6.7NNWPoplarPointCampground(JordanLake)558BeaverCreekRdNCStateParks(919)36208561,302543M6.9WCotten'sRVCampground390CottenAcresMoncure(919)54826442525M6.9WJordanDamRVPark&Campground284MoncureSchoolRdMoncure(919)77068904444M7.3NWVistaPointCampground(JordanLake)NPeaRidgeRdNCStateParks(919)3620856420105N7.9NNWCrosswindsCampgroundandMarina(JordanLake)389FarringtonRdNCStateParks(919)3620856965241N8.9NNWParker'sCreekCampground(JordanLake)BigWoodsRdNCStateParks(919)3620586750188ChathamCountySubtotals:4,0601,338TOTAL:4,0601,338 HarrisNuclearPlantE 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 6.ParksandCommunityCenterswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesCHATHAMCOUNTYK4.2SSWHarrisLakeBoatLaunch(ChathamCounty)384CrossPointRdNewHill(919)7070010224102L6.3NWEbenezerChurchRecreationArea(JordanLake)EbenezerRdNCStateParks(919)36205861,127282M7.3WPoe'sRidgeRecreationArea(JordanLake)1MoncureSchoolRdU.S.ArmyCorpsofEng(919)54245019462M9.6NWRobesonCreekRecreationArea(JordanLake)HanksChapelRdNCStateParks(919)362058638997M7.7NWSeaforthRecreationArea(JordanLake)U.S.Highway64NCStateParks(919)36208561,334334N8.0NNWWhiteOakRecreationArea(JordanLake)U.S.Highway64NCStateParks(919)362085639398ChathamCountySubtotals:3,561975HARNETTCOUNTYH11.0SRavenRockStatePark2309RavenRockRoadLillington(910)89348888052HarnettCountySubtotals:8052WAKECOUNTYA2.0EHarrisLakeCountyPark2112CountyParkDrNewHill(919)3874342401182B5.1NNEGoldstarSoccerComplex2513OldUSHwy1Apex(919)7863056289131D2.0SSEHarrisLakeBoatLaunch4420BartleyHollemanRdNewHill(919)7070010224102E5.6NAmericanTobaccoTrail1309NewHill OliveChapelRdApex(919)3872117498226E9.3NEApexCommunityCenter53HunterStApex(919)24934022612E8.2NEApexElementarySchoolPark700TingenRdApex(919)856617063E9.1NEClaremontPark801EastChathamStApex(919)249340221E9.1NEHalleCulturalArtsCenter237NSalemStApex(919)24911203215E8.5NEJayceePark451NCHwy55Apex(919)2493402136E7.5NNEKellyGlenPark1701KellyGlenDrApex(919)249340221E7.6NNEKellyRoadPark1609KellyRdApex(919)2493402167E8.5NESueHeltonParkMatneyLnApex(919)249340221 HarrisNuclearPlantE 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1Sub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesE8.5NEWestStreetPark108WestStApex(919)249340221F8.6EBassLakePark&RetreatCenter900BassLakeRdHollySprings(919)5572496104F6.8EHollySpringsLibrary&CulturalCenter300WBallentineStHollySprings(919)55796003215F7.3ENEJonesMemorialPark405SchoolDaysLnHollySprings(919)557960063F7.3EParrishWomblePark1201GrigsbyAveHollySprings(919)5579600240109F7.5ENEVeteransPark600BikramDrHollySprings(919)557960021F7.2EW.E.HuntCommunityCenter&Gym301StinsonAveHollySprings(919)55796003515G9.2ESEActionPark609WakeChapelRdFuquay Varina(919)5521400296135G9.6ESECarrollHowardJohnsonEEPark301WagstaffRdFuquay Varina(919)5521400115G9.9ESEFalconPark611EAcademyStFuquay Varina(919)55214003215G8.6ESEFlemingLoopSoccerComplex301FlemingLoopRdFuquay Varina(919)55214003215G9.5ESEFuquayMineralSpringPark105SpringStFuquay Varina(919)552140021G8.6EHerbertAkinsSchoolPark2255HerbertAkinsRdFuquay Varina(919)552140094G9.5ESEKintonSoccerField300WRansomStFuquay Varina(919)5521400167G9.0ESELawrenceStreetPark215LawrenceStFuquay Varina(919)552140084G9.6ESELibraryPark116SouthAikenStFuquay Varina(919)552140062G8.9ESEPineAcresCommunityCenter&Park402McleanStFuquay Varina(919)552140042G9.6ESESouthPark900SMainStFuquay Varina(919)5521400401182WakeCountySubtotals:2,6551,207TOTAL:6,2962,234Notes1DataobtainedfromRevision4of2007COLA2OnlyaportionoftheParkresidesintheEPZ,however,theentirefacilityevacuatesasaprecautionarymeasure HarrisNuclearPlantE 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TableE 7.GolfCourseswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesWAKECOUNTYC5.1ENE12Oaks1001GreenOaksPkwyHollySprings91928536807030E9.8NEKnightsPlayGolfCenter2512Ten TenRdApex9193034653288200F8.6EDevilsRidgeGolfClub5107LinkslandDrHollySprings9193463631262180WakeCountySubtotals:620410TOTAL:620410TableE 8.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZSub ZoneDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesWAKECOUNTYE8.5NEAmerica'sBestValueInn1400EWilliamsStApex(919)36286216052E8.8NNEB&BCountryGardenInn1041KellyRdApex(919)303800342E8.3NECandlewoodSuites1005MarcoDrApex(919)38785957666E8.6NEComfortInnApex1411EWilliamsStApex(919)38746006456E8.6NEHolidayInnExpress1006MarcoDrApex(919)38736362623E8.8NEValuePlaceHotel901LufkinRoadApex(919)387463611399F6.7EHamptonInn&SuitesHollySprings1516RalphStephensRdHollySprings(919)5527610116101G9.5ESEFuquayMineralSpringInnandGardenB&B333SouthMainStFuquay Varina(919)552378242G9.8ESEChateauBellevie1605SouthMainStFuquay Varina(919)622612831WakeCountySubtotals:466402TOTAL:466402 HarrisNuclearPlantE 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 1.SchoolswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 2.OverviewofChildCareCenterswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 3.ChildCareCenterswithinSubZoneE HarrisNuclearPlantE 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 4.ChildCareCenterswithinSubZonesFandG HarrisNuclearPlantE 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 5.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 6.OverviewofMajorEmployerswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 7.MajorEmployerswithinSubZoneE HarrisNuclearPlantE 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 8.MajorEmployerswithinSubZonesFandG HarrisNuclearPlantE 22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE 9.CampgroundswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE10.OverviewofParksandCommunityCenterswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE11.ParksandCommunityCenterswithinSubZoneE HarrisNuclearPlantE 25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE12.ParksandCommunityCenterswithinSubZonesFandG HarrisNuclearPlantE 26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE13.GolfCourseswithintheEPZ HarrisNuclearPlantE 27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureE14.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ APPENDIXFTelephoneSurvey HarrisNuclearPlantF 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F. TELEPHONESURVEYF.1 IntroductionThedevelopmentofevacuationtimeestimatesfortheHNPEPZrequirestheidentificationoftravelpatterns,carownershipandhouseholdsizeofthepopulationwithintheEPZ.DemographicinformationcanbeobtainedfromCensusdata.Theuseofthisdatahasseverallimitationswhenappliedtoemergencyplanning.First,theCensusdatadonotencompasstherangeofinformationneededtoidentifythetimerequiredforpreliminaryactivities(mobilization)thatmustbeundertakenpriortoevacuatingthearea.Secondly,CensusdatadonotcontainattitudinalresponsesneededfromthepopulationoftheEPZandconsequentlymaynotaccuratelyrepresenttheanticipatedbehavioralcharacteristicsoftheevacuatingpopulace.TheseconcernsareaddressedbyconductingatelephonesurveyofarepresentativesampleoftheEPZpopulation.Thesurveyisdesignedtoelicitinformationfromthepublicconcerningfamilydemographicsandestimatesofresponsetimestowelldefinedevents.Thedesignofthesurveyincludesalimitednumberofquestionsoftheform"Whatwouldyoudoif-?"andotherquestionsregardingactivitieswithwhichtherespondentisfamiliar("Howlongdoesittakeyouto-?")

HarrisNuclearPlantF 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlanAttachmentApresentsthefinalsurveyinstrumentusedinthisstudy.Adraftoftheinstrumentwassubmittedtostakeholdersforcomment.Commentswerereceivedandthesurveyinstrumentwasmodifiedaccordingly,priortoconductingthesurvey.Followingthecompletionoftheinstrument,asamplingplanwasdeveloped.Asamplesizeofapproximately500completedsurveyformsyi eldsresultswithasamplingerrorof+/-4.5%atthe95%confidencelevel.ThesamplemustbedrawnfromtheEPZpopulation.Consequently,alistofzipcodesintheEPZwasdevelopedusingGISsoftware.ThislistisshowninTableF 1.Alongwitheachzipcode,anestimateofthepopulationandnumberofhouseholdsineachareawasdeterminedbyoverlayingCensusdataandtheEPZboundary,againusingGISsoftware.Theproportionalnumberofdesiredcompletedsurveyinterviewsforeachareawasidentified,asshowninTableF 1.Thecompletedsurveyadheredtothesamplingplan.TableF 1.HarrisTelephoneSurveySamplingPlanZipCodePopulationwithinEPZ(2010)HouseholdsRequiredSample27312821 314 4273302,089 815 112750229,062 10,064 1392750570 21 02751749 17 0275183,513 1,182 1627519126 46 1275236,178 2,291 312752620,528 7,715 106275399,769 3,464 472754027,467 9,227 127275591,399 562 8275621,890 751 10Total102,961 36,469 500AverageHouseholdSize: 2.82TotalSampleRequired: 500 HarrisNuclearPlantF 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1F.3 SurveyResultsTheresultsofthesurveyfallintotwocategories.First,thehouseholddemographicsoftheareacanbeidentified.Demographicinformationincludessuchfactorsashouseholdsize,automobileownership,andautomobileavailability.Thedistributionsofthetimetoperformcertainpre evacuationactivitiesarethesecondcategoryofsurveyresults.Thesedataareprocessedtodevelopthetripgenerationdistributionsusedintheevacuationmodelingeffort,asdiscussedinSection5.Areviewofthesurveyinstrumentrevealsthatseveralquestionshavea"don'tknow"(DK)or"refused"entryforaresponse.Itisacceptedpracticeinconductingsurveysofthi stypetoaccepttheanswersofarespondentwhooffersaDKresponseforafewquestionsorwhorefusestoanswerafewquestions.ToaddresstheissueofoccasionalDK/refusedresponsesfromalargesample,thepracticeistoassumethatthedistributionoftheseresponsesisthesameasth eunderlyingdistributionofthepositiveresponses.Ineffect,theDK/refusedresponsesareignoredandthedistributionsarebaseduponthepositivedatathatisacquired.F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResultsHouseholdSizeFigureF 1presentsthedistributionofhouseholdsizewithintheEPZ.Theaveragehouseholdcontains2.95people.Theestimatedhouseholdsize(2.82people)usedtodeterminethesurveysample(TableF 1)wasdrawnfromCensusdata.TheaveragehouseholdsizefoundinthesurveyagreeswiththeCensusdatawithinthesamplingerrorrange.AfterdiscussionswithDukeEnergyandcountyemergencymanagementagencies,itwasdecidedthattheU.S.Censusestimateof2.82peopleperhouseholdshouldbeusedforthisstudy.Thisresultsinamoreconservativeestimatewhendeterminingthenumberofhouseholdsandevacuatingvehicles.

HarrisNuclearPlantF 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZAutomobileOwnershipTheaveragenumberofautomobilesavailableperhouseholdintheEPZis2.16.Itshouldbenotedthat1.8percentofhouseholdsdonothaveaccesstoanautomobile.ThedistributionofautomobileownershipispresentedinFigureF 2.FigureF 3andFigureF 4presenttheautomobileavailabilitybyhouseholdsize.Notethatthemajorityofhouseholdswithoutaccesstoacararesinglepersonhouseholds.Asexpected,nearlyallhouseholdsof2ormorepeoplehaveaccesstoatleastonevehicle.FigureF 2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability0%10%20%

30%40%12345678910+

%ofHouseholds HouseholdSize HarrisHouseholdSize 0%10%20%30%40%50%60%012345678%ofHouseholds NumberofVehicles HarrisVehicleAvailability HarrisNuclearPlantF 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholdsFigureF 4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds 0%20%40%60%80%100%012345678%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 1 5PersonHouseholds 1Person 2People 3People 4People 5People 0%20%

40%60%80%100%012345678%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 6 9+PersonHouseholds 6People 7People 8People 9+People HarrisNuclearPlantF 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1RidesharingTheoverwhelmingproportion(89%)ofthehouseholdssurveyed(whodonotownavehicle)respondedthattheywouldsharearidewithaneighbor,relative,orfriendifacarwasnotavailabletothemwhenadvisedtoevacuateintheeventofanemergency.Note,however,thatonlythosehouseholdswithnoaccesstoaveh icle-18totaloutofthesamplesizeof500-answeredthisquestion.Thus,theresultsarenotstatisticallysignificant.Assuch,theNRCrecommendationof50%ridesharingisusedthroughoutthisstudy.FigureF 5presentsthisresponse.FigureF 5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference0%20%40%

60%

80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholds HarrisRidesharewithNeighbor/Friend HarrisNuclearPlantF 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommutersFigureF 6presentsthedistributionofthenumberofcommutersineachhousehold.Commutersaredefinedashouseholdmemberswhotraveltoworkorcollegeonadailybasis.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.14commutersineachhouseholdintheEPZ,and68%ofhouseholdshaveatleastonecommuter.FigureF 6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ0%10%20%30%

40%50%01234+%ofHouseholds NumberofCommuters HarrisCommuters HarrisNuclearPlantF 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1CommuterTravelModesFigureF 7presentsthemodeoftravelthatcommutersuseonadailybasis.Thevastmajorityofcommutersusetheirprivateautomobilestotraveltowork.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.07employeespervehicle,assuming2peoplepervehicle-onaverage-forcarpools.FigureF 7.ModesofTravelintheEPZF.3.2 EvacuationResponseSeveralquestionswereaskedtogaugethepopulation'sresponsetoanemergency.Thesearenowdiscussed:"Howmanyofthevehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?"TheresponseisshowninFigureF 8.Onaverage,evacuatinghouseholdswoulduse1.39vehicles."Wouldyourfamilyawaitthereturnofotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuatingthearea?"Ofthesurveyparticipantswhoresponded,41percentsaidtheywouldawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembersbeforeevacuatingand59percentindicatedthattheywouldnotawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembers."Ifyouhadahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?"Basedontheresponsestothesurvey,76percentofhouseholdshaveafamilypet.Ofthehouseholdswithpets,94percentofthemindicatedthattheywouldtaketheirpetswiththem,asshowninFigur eF 9.0.7%0.4%92.1%6.7%0%20%40%60%80%100%BusWalk/BikeDriveAloneCarpool(2+)%ofCommuters ModeofTravel HarrisTravelModetoWork HarrisNuclearPlantF 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureF 8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuationFigureF 9.HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets0%20%40%60%80%100%01234%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesVehiclesUsedforEvacuation 0%20%40%

60%80%100%YesNo%ofHouseholds HouseholdsEvacuatingwithPets HarrisNuclearPlantF 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationregardingcompliancewithinstructionstoshelterinplace.Theresultsindicatethat84percentofhouseholdswhoareadvisedtoshelterinplacewoulddoso;theremaining16percentwouldchoosetoevacuateth earea.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhouseholdswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR 7002.Thus,thedataobtainedaboveisslightlylessthanthefederalguidance.AppendixM(TableM 2)includesasensitivitystudytoestimatetheimpactonETEofusingthelesser(16%)shadowevac uation(non complianceofshelteradvisory)basedonthetelephonesurveyresults."Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeopleinotherareasareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou?"Thisquestionisdesignedtoelicitinformationspecificallyrelatedtothepossibilityofastagedevacuation.Thatis,askingapopulationtoshelterinplacenowandthentoevacuateafteraspecifiedperiodoftime.Resultsindicatethat74percentofhouseholdswouldfollowinstructionsanddelaythestartofevacuationuntilsoadvised,whileth ebalanceof26percentwouldchoosetobeginevacuatingimmediately.F.3.3 TimeDistributionResultsThesurveyaskedseveralquestionsabouttheamountoftimeittakestoperformcertainpre evacuationactivities.Theseactivitiesinvolveactionstakenbyresidentsduringthecourseoftheirday to daylives.Th us,theanswersfallwithintherealmoftheresponder'sexperience.ThemobilizationdistributionsprovidedbelowaretheresultofhavingappliedtheanalysisdescribedinSection5.4.1onthecomponentactivitiesofthemobilization.

HarrisNuclearPlantF 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongdoesittakethecommutertocompletepreparationforleavingwork?"FigureF 10presentsthecumulativedistribution;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedby90minutes.Ninetypercentcanleavewithin40minutes.FigureF10.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School"Howlongwouldittakethecommutertotravelhome?"FigureF 11presentstheworktohometraveltimefortheEPZ.Ninety fourpercentofcommuterscanarrivehomewithin45minutesofleavingwork;allwithin90minutes.FigureF11.WorktoHomeTravelTime0%20%40%60%80%100%0153045607590

%ofCommuters PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork 0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0153045607590

%ofCommuters TravelTime(min)WorktoHomeTravel HarrisNuclearPlantF 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1"Howlongwouldittakethefamilytopackclothing,securethehouse,andloadthecar?"FigureF 12presentsthetimerequiredtoprepareforleavingonanevacuationtrip.Inmanywaysthisactivitymimicsafamily'spreparationforashortholidayorweekendawayfromhome.Hence,theresponsesrepresenttheexperienceoftheresponderinperformingsimilaractivities.ThedistributionshowninFigureF 12hasalong"tail."About87percentofhouseholdscanbereadytoleavehomewithin75minutes;theremaininghouseholdsrequireuptoanadditionaltwohours.FigureF12.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuationF.4 ConclusionsThetelephonesurveyprovidesvaluable,relevantdataassociatedwiththeEPZpopulation,whichhavebeenusedtoquantifydemographicsspecifictotheEPZ,and"mobilizationtime"whichcaninfluenceevacuationtimeestimates.0%20%40%60%80%100%0153045607590105120135150165180195

%ofHouseholds PreparationTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveHome HarrisNuclearPlantF 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1ATTACHMENTATelephoneSurveyInstrument HarrisNuclearPlantF 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1TelephoneSurveyInstrumentHello,mynameis___________andI'mworkingincooperationwithlocalemergencymanagementagenciestoidentifylocalbehaviorduringemergencysituations.Thisinformationwillbeusedforemergencyplanningandwillbesharedwithlocalofficialstoenhanceemergencyresponseplansinyourareaforallhazards;emergencyplanningforsomehazardsmayrequireevacuation.Yourresponseswillgreatlycontributetolocalemergencypreparedness.Iwillnotaskforyournameandthesurveyshalltakenomorethan10minutestocomplete.COL.1Unused COL.2Unused COL.3Unused COL.4Unused COL.5Unused SexCOL.81Male2FemaleINTERVIEWER:ASKTOSPEAKTOTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLDORTHESPOUSEOFTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLD.(Terminatecallifnotaresidence.)

DONOTASK:1A.Recordareacode.ToBeDeterminedCOL.9 111B.Recordexchangenumber.ToBeDeterminedCOL.12 142.Whatisyourhomezipcode?COL.15 193A.Intotal,howmanyrunningcars,orotherrunningvehiclesareusuallyavailabletothehousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.20 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIX7SEVEN8EIGHT9NINEORMORE0ZERO(NONE)XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.3BQ.3B3B.Inanemergency,couldyougetarideoutoftheareawithaneighbororfriend?COL.211YES2NOXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED4.Howmanypeopleusuallyliveinthishousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.22 1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIX7SEVENCOL.230TEN1ELEVEN2TWELVE3THIRTEEN4FOURTEEN5FIFTEEN6SIXTEEN HarrisNuclearPlantF 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.18EIGH T 9NINE7SEVENTEEN8EIGHTEEN9NINETEENORMOREXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED5.Howmanyadultsinthehouseholdcommutetoajob,ortocollegeonadailybasis?COL.24 0ZERO1ONE2TWO3THREE4FOURORMORE5DON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.9Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.9INTERVIEWER:ForeachpersonidentifiedinQuestion5,askQuestions6,7,and8.6.Thinkingaboutcommuter#1,howdoesthatpersonusuallytraveltoworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)Commuter#1 COL.25Commuter#2 COL.26Commuter#3COL.27Commuter#4 COL.28Rail1 1 1 1Bus2 2 2 2Walk/Bicycle3 3 3 3DriveAlone4 4 4 4Park&Ride(Car/Rail,Xpressbus)5555Carpool 2ormorepeople6 6 6 6Taxi7 7 7 7Don'tknow/Refused8 8 8 8 7.Howmuchtimeonaverage,wouldittakeCommuter#1totravelhomefromworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.29COL.30COL.31 COL.3215MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR316 26 30MINUTES 6BETWEEN1HOUR31 HarrisNuclearPlantF 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTESMINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDCOMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.33COL.34COL.35 COL.3615MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED8.ApproximatelyhowmuchtimedoesittakeCommuter#1tocompletepreparationforleavingworkorcollegepriortostartingthetriphome?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.37COL.38COL.39 COL.4015MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1 HarrisNuclearPlantF 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.130MINUTES HOUR30MINUTES 626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDCOMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.41COL.42COL.43 COL.4415MINUTESORLESS146 50MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS 146 50MINUTES 26 10MINUTES251 55MINUTES26 10MINUTES 251 55MINUTES 311 15MINUTES356-1HOUR 3 11 15MINUTES 356-1HOUR 416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES416 20MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES521 25MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES626 30MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAN D2HOURS731 35MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)836 40MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)941 45MINUTES99 41 45MINUTES 900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED9.Ifyouwereadvisedbylocalauthoritiestoevacuate,howmuchtimewouldittakethehouseholdtopackclothing,medications,securethehouse,loadthecar,andcompletepreparationspriortoevacuatingthearea?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.45COL.46 1LESSTHAN15MINUTES13HOURSTO3HOURS15MINUTES215 30MINUTES23HOURS16MINUTESTO3HOURS30MINUTES 331 45MINUTES33HOURS31MINUTESTO3HOURS45MINUTES 446MINUTES-1HOUR43HOURS46MINUTESTO4HOURS51HOURTO1HOUR15MINUTES54HOURSTO4HOURS15MINUTES61HOUR16MINUTESTO1HOUR30MINUTES64HOURS16MINUTESTO4HOURS30MINUTES HarrisNuclearPlantF 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.171HOUR31MINUTESTO1HOUR45MINUTES74HOURS31MINUTESTO4HOURS45MINUTES 81HOUR46MINUTESTO2HOURS84HOURS46MINUTESTO5HOURS92HOURSTO2HOURS15MINUTES95HOURSTO5HOURS30MINUTES02HOURS16MINUTESTO2HOURS30MINUTES05HOURS31MINUTESTO6HOURSX2HOURS31MINUTESTO2HOURS45MINUTES XOVER6HOURS(SPECIFY_______)Y2HOURS46MINUTESTO3HOURSCOL.471 DON'TKNOW/REFUSED10.Pleasechooseoneofthefollowing(READANSWERS):Ifyouwereathomeandwereaskedtoevacuate,A.Iwouldawaitthereturnofhouseholdcommuterstoevacuatetogether.B.Iwouldevacuateindependentlyandmeetotherhouseholdmemberslater.COL.50 1A2BXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED 11.Howmanyvehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.511ONE2 TWO3 THREE4FOUR5 FIVE6 SIX7SEVEN8 EIGHT9 NINEORMORE0 ZERO(NONE)X DON'TKNOW/REFUSED12.Ifyouhaveahouseholdpet,wouldyoutakeyourpetwithyouifyouwereaskedtoevacuatethearea?(READANSWERS)COL.541 DON'THAVEAPE T2 YES3 NOX DON'TKNOW/REFUSED13A.Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATECOL.52 1A 2B XDON'TKNOW/REFUSED HarrisNuclearPlantF 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.113B.Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomenowinanemergencyandpossiblyevacuatelaterwhilepeopleinareasofgreaterriskareadvisedtoevacuatenow.Wouldyou:(READANSWERS)A.SHELTER;orB.EVACUATECOL.53 1A 2B XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDThankyouverymuch._______________________________(TELEPHONENUMBERCALLED)IFREQUESTED:Foradditionalinformation,contactyourCountyEmergencyManagementAgencyduringnormalbusinesshours.CountyEMAPhone Wake(919)8566480Chatham(919)5458160Lee(919)7184670Harnett(919)8937580 APPENDIXGTrafficManagementPlan HarrisNuclearPlantG 1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLANNUREG/CR 7002indicatesthattheexistingTCPsandSRBsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesshouldbeusedintheevacuationsimulationmodeling.ThetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfortheEPZwereprovidedbyeachcounty.TheseplanswerereviewedandtheTCPsandSRBsweremodeledaccordingly.G.1 TrafficControlPointsAsdiscussedinSection9,trafficcontrolpointsatintersections(whicharecontrolled)aremodeledasactuatedsignals.Ifanintersectionhasapre timedsignal,stop,oryieldcontrol,andtheintersectionisidentifiedasatrafficcontrolpoint,thecontroltypewaschangedtoanactuatedsignalintheDYNE VIIsystem.TableK 2providesthecontroltypeandnodenumberforthosenodeswhicharecontrolled.IftheexistingcontrolwaschangedduetothepointbeingaTrafficControlPoint,thecontroltypeisindicatedasaTCPinTableK 2.In2007,KLDdevelopedadetailedtrafficmanagementplaninsupportofanETEstudyconductedfortheCombinedLicenseApplication(COLA)forHarrisUnits2and3.TCPsandSRBswereidentifiedanddetailedschematicsweredrawnforeachintersection.MostoftheseTCPsandSRBswereincorporatedintothecountytrafficmana gementplans.FigureG 1throughFigureG 4maptheexistingTCPsandSRBsfortheHNPEPZ.AsdiscussedinSection1.4,twomajorroadwayshavebeenconstructedintheHNPEPZsincethe2007ETEstudy-NC 540TollandJuddParkway.Asaresultofthesenewroads,threeTCPshadtobeupdatedtoencourageevacuatingvehiclestousetheseroutes.TheschematicsfortheseTCPsareshowninFigureG 5throughFigureG 7.HarnettCountyhas10TCPsidentifiedintheirtrafficmanagementplan.TheseTCPswerenotidentifiedinthe2007ETEstudyan dschematicswerenotdrawn.AsperDukeEnergyandHarnettCounty'srequest,schematicsweredrawnfortheseTCPS,whicharepresentedinFigureG 8throughFigureG 17.SixnewTCPshavebeenidentifiedfortheinterchangeswiththenewlyconstructedNC 540Toll-seeFigureG 18throughFigureG 23.Section7.3indicatesthattrafficcongestionintheEPZclearsat3hoursand30minutesaftertheATE,30minutespriortothecompletionofmobilizationtime.DuetothelimiteddurationoftrafficcongestionwithintheEPZ,noadditionalTCPsarerecommendedotherthantheaforementionedinterchangesforNC 540Toll.

HarrisNuclearPlantG 2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1G.2 SecurityRoadBlocksItisassumedthatSRBswillbeestablishedwithin30minutesoftheadvisorytoevacuatetodiscouragethroughtravelersfromusingmajorthroughrouteswhichtraversetheEPZ.AsdiscussedinSection3.6,externaltrafficwasconsideredonfiverouteswhichtraversethestudyarea-US 64,US 1,US 401,US 421andI 40-inthisanalysis.Thegenerationofthes eexternaltripsceasedat30minutes(basedupondataprovidedbytheemergencymanagementagencies)aftertheadvisorytoevacuateinthesimulation.AsshowninFigureG 1,existingTCPsandSRBsex istoneachoftheseroutesontheperipheryoftheEPZtostoptheflowoftrafficintotheEPZ.OneadditionalSRBisrecommendedasaresultofthisstudy-theinterchangeofNC 55andthenewlyconstructedNC 540Toll.FigureG 24providesaschematicofthisinterchang eandtheproposedaccesscontrolmeasurestostoptheflowoftrafficintotheEPZ.

HarrisNuclearPlantG 3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 1.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlocksfortheHNPSite HarrisNuclearPlantG 4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 2.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlockswithinSub ZoneE HarrisNuclearPlantG 5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 3.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlockswithinSubZonesEandF HarrisNuclearPlantG 6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1FigureG 4.TrafficControlPointsandSecurityRoadBlockswithinSub ZoneG HarrisNuclearPlantG 7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.11.Facilitate westbound traffic on Green Level Rd to access NC-540 Toll northbound2.Interdict and divert southbound traffic on STHY 55UPCHURCHState Highway 55 & High House Rd Q1-02TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN NMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 3Traffic Guide(s) 6Traffic BarricadesGreen Level Rd WSTHY 55High House Rd1.Facilitate westbound traffic on Green Level Rd to access NC-540 Toll northbound2.Interdict and divert southbound traffic on STHY 55UPCHURCHState Highway 55 & High House Rd Q1-02TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN NMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 3Traffic Guide(s) 6Traffic BarricadesGreen Level Rd WSTHY 55High House Rd FigureG 5.RevisedTrafficControlPoint-StateHighway55&HighHouseRd HarrisNuclearPlantG 8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1MOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDESTOP SIGNTRAFFIC BARRICADE2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):FUQUAY-VARINAState Highway 55 & Wilbon RdG-04 GTOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:SUB-ZONE:Key8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage northbound movement on STHY 552.Discourage southbound movement on STHY 55 to avoid rail crossing and bottlenecks in Fuquay-Varina3.Discourage westbound movement on WilbonRd4.Facilitate eastbound movement on N Judd Pkwy to bypass Fuquay-VarinaMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 2Traffic Guide(s) 15Traffic ConesSTHY 55Wilbon RdN Judd Pkwy NEMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDESTOP SIGNTRAFFIC BARRICADE2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):FUQUAY-VARINAState Highway 55 & Wilbon RdG-04 GTOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:SUB-ZONE:Key8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage northbound movement on STHY 552.Discourage southbound movement on STHY 55 to avoid rail crossing and bottlenecks in Fuquay-Varina3.Discourage westbound movement on WilbonRd4.Facilitate eastbound movement on N Judd Pkwy to bypass Fuquay-VarinaMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 2Traffic Guide(s) 15Traffic ConesSTHY 55Wilbon RdN Judd Pkwy NE FigureG 6.RevisedTrafficControlPoint-StateHighway55&WilbonRd HarrisNuclearPlantG 9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 APEXState Highway 55 & U.S. Highway 64 (West) Ramps E-15B ETOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:SUB-ZONE:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Facilitate access to westbound USHY 64 westbound to access NC-540 TollMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s)STHY 55USHY 64 (W)On-RampUSHY 64 (W)Off-RampAccess to NC-540 TollAPEXState Highway 55 & U.S. Highway 64 (West) Ramps E-15B ETOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:SUB-ZONE:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Facilitate access to westbound USHY 64 westbound to access NC-540 TollMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s)STHY 55USHY 64 (W)On-RampUSHY 64 (W)Off-RampAccess to NC-540 Toll FigureG 7.RevisedTrafficControlPoint-StateHighway55&USHighway64(West)Ramps HarrisNuclearPlantG 10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 RAWLSSR 1415 & HWY 401 HARNETT -TCP -1 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 3ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage northbound movement on Hwy 4012.Discourage westbound movement on SR 1415MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s) 6Traffic ConesPiney-Grove Rawls Rd (SR 1415)HWY 401RAWLSSR 1415 & HWY 401 HARNETT -TCP -1 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 3ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage northbound movement on Hwy 4012.Discourage westbound movement on SR 1415MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s) 6Traffic ConesPiney-Grove Rawls Rd (SR 1415)HWY 401 FigureG 8.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1415&HWY401 HarrisNuclearPlantG 11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 CHALYBEATE SPRINGSSR 1427 & HWY 401 HARNETT -TCP -2 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 3ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage northbound movement on Hwy 4012.Discourage westbound movement on SR 1427MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s) 6Traffic ConesChalybeate Rd (SR 1427)HWY 401Light Flow Northbound(See HARNETTTCP-7)CHALYBEATE SPRINGSSR 1427 & HWY 401 HARNETT -TCP -2 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 3ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage northbound movement on Hwy 4012.Discourage westbound movement on SR 1427MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s) 6Traffic ConesChalybeate Rd (SR 1427)HWY 401Light Flow Northbound(See HARNETTTCP-7)FigureG 9.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1427&HWY401 HarrisNuclearPlantG 12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 CHALYBEATE SPRINGSSR 1443 & HWY 401 HARNETT -TCP -3 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 3ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage northbound movement on Hwy 4012.Discourage eastbound movement on SR 1443MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s) 6Traffic ConesHWY 401Light Flow Northbound(See HARNETTTCP-7)CHALYBEATE SPRINGSSR 1443 & HWY 401 HARNETT -TCP -3 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 3ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage northbound movement on Hwy 4012.Discourage eastbound movement on SR 1443MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s) 6Traffic ConesHWY 401Light Flow Northbound(See HARNETTTCP-7)FigureG10.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1443&HWY401 HarrisNuclearPlantG 13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 KIPLINGSR 1403 & HWY 401 HARNETT -TCP -4 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 2ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage northbound movement on Hwy 4012.Discourage westbound movement on Kipling RdMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 2Traffic Guide(s) 9Traffic ConesKipling RdHWY 401Harnett Central Rd(SR 1403)HWY 401KIPLINGSR 1403 & HWY 401 HARNETT -TCP -4 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 2ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage northbound movement on Hwy 4012.Discourage westbound movement on Kipling RdMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 2Traffic Guide(s) 9Traffic ConesKipling RdHWY 401Harnett Central Rd(SR 1403)HWY 401 FigureG11.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1403&HWY401 HarrisNuclearPlantG 14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 MOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):ANGIERSR 1403 & HWY 210 HARNETT -TCP -5 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:Key8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage westbound movement on SR 14032.Facilitate eastbound movement on SR 1403 to access the Reception Centers at Harnett Central Middle School and High SchoolMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 2Traffic Guide(s) 3Traffic ConesHWY 210Harnett Central Rd(SR 1403)To Reception CentersMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):ANGIERSR 1403 & HWY 210 HARNETT -TCP -5 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:Key8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage westbound movement on SR 14032.Facilitate eastbound movement on SR 1403 to access the Reception Centers at Harnett Central Middle School and High SchoolMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 2Traffic Guide(s) 3Traffic ConesHWY 210Harnett Central Rd(SR 1403)To Reception Centers FigureG12.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1403&HWY210 HarrisNuclearPlantG 15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 MOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):ANGIERSR 1403 & SR 1513 HARNETT -TCP -6TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:Key8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 2ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Facilitate westbound movement on SR 1403 to access the Reception Centers at Harnett Central Middle School and High SchoolMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s)NeillsCreek Rd (SR 1513)Harnett Central Rd(SR 1403)To Reception CentersMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):ANGIERSR 1403 & SR 1513 HARNETT -TCP -6TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:Key8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 2ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Facilitate westbound movement on SR 1403 to access the Reception Centers at Harnett Central Middle School and High SchoolMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s)NeillsCreek Rd (SR 1513)Harnett Central Rd(SR 1403)To Reception Centers FigureG13.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1403&SR1513 HarrisNuclearPlantG 16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 1.Interdict and divert northbound traffic on HWY 401.LILLINGTONHWY 210 & HWY 401 & HWY 421 HARNETT -TCP -7 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN NMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 3Traffic Guide(s) 2Traffic BarricadesHWY 401HWY 401/421HWY 421HWY 2101.Interdict and divert northbound traffic on HWY 401.LILLINGTONHWY 210 & HWY 401 & HWY 421 HARNETT -TCP -7 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN NMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 3Traffic Guide(s) 2Traffic BarricadesHWY 401HWY 401/421HWY 421HWY 210 FigureG14.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-HWY210&HWY401&HWY421 HarrisNuclearPlantG 17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FUQUAY-VARINASR 1412 & HWY 401 HARNETT -TCP -8 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 3ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage northbound movement on Hwy 4012.Discourage westbound movement on SR 1412MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s) 6Traffic ConesChristian Light Rd(SR 1412)HWY 401FUQUAY-VARINASR 1412 & HWY 401 HARNETT -TCP -8 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 3ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage northbound movement on Hwy 4012.Discourage westbound movement on SR 1412MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s) 6Traffic ConesChristian Light Rd(SR 1412)HWY 401 FigureG15.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1412&HWY401 HarrisNuclearPlantG 18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 FUQUAY-VARINASR 1431 & SR 1412 HARNETT -TCP -9 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 3ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage westbound movement on SR 1412MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s) 3Traffic ConesBradley Rd (SR 1431)Christian Light Rd(SR 1412)FUQUAY-VARINASR 1431 & SR 1412 HARNETT -TCP -9 TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:KeyMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 3ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Discourage westbound movement on SR 1412MANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s) 3Traffic ConesBradley Rd (SR 1431)Christian Light Rd(SR 1412)FigureG16.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-SR1431&SR1412 HarrisNuclearPlantG 19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 MOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):ANGIERHarnett Central Rd at 2529 Harnett Central Rd HARNETT -TCP -10TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:Key8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Facilitate access to Reception Centers at 2529 Harnett Central RdMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s)2529 Harnett Central RdHarnett Central Rd(SR 1403)RECEPTION CENTERHarnett Central Middle SchoolMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):ANGIERHarnett Central Rd at 2529 Harnett Central Rd HARNETT -TCP -10TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:Key8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Facilitate access to Reception Centers at 2529 Harnett Central RdMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 1Traffic Guide(s)2529 Harnett Central RdHarnett Central Rd(SR 1403)RECEPTION CENTERHarnett Central Middle School FigureG17.ExistingTrafficControlPoint-HarnettCounty-2529HarnettCentralRd HarrisNuclearPlantG 20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 MOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):CARYNC-540 TOLL & GREEN LEVEL WEST RD NEW -2TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:Key8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Facilitate access to NC-540 TOLL northbound2.Interdict and divert access to NC-540 TOLL southbound3.Discourage westbound movement along Green Level West RdMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 4Traffic Guide(s)10Traffic Barricades 12Traffic ConesNC-540 TOLLMOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTEDTRAFFIC GUIDE STOP SIGN TRAFFIC BARRICADE 2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS) 4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)

TRAFFIC SIGNALTRAFFIC CONES SPACED TODISCOURAGE TRAFFIC BUT ALLOW PASSAGE (3 PER LANE):CARYNC-540 TOLL & GREEN LEVEL WEST RD NEW -2TOWN:LOCATION:TCP ID:Key8 ft2 ft3 ft TCP**Traffic Guide should position himself safely 1ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN N1.Facilitate access to NC-540 TOLL northbound2.Interdict and divert access to NC-540 TOLL southbound3.Discourage westbound movement along Green Level West RdMANPOWER/EQUIPMENT ESTIMATELOCATION PRIORITY 4Traffic Guide(s)10Traffic Barricades 12Traffic ConesNC-540 TOLL FigureG18.ProposedTrafficControlPoint-NC540TOLL&GreenLevelWestRd HarrisNuclearPlantG 21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.1 MOVEMENT FACILITATEDMOVEMENT DISCOURAGED/DIVERTED TRAFFIC GUIDESTOP SIGNTRAFFIC BARRICADE2 PER LANE (LOCAL ROADS AND RAMPS)4 PER LANE (FREEWAY AND RAMPS)