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{{#Wiki_filter:5 ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME Federal Government guidelines (see NUREG CR-7002) specify that the planner estimate the distributions of elapsed times associated with mobilization activities undertaken by the public to prepare for the evacuation trip. The elapsed time associated with each activity is represented as a statistical distribution reflecting differences between members of the public.The quantification of these activity-based distributions relies largely on the results of the telephone survey. We define the sum of these distributions of elapsed times as the Trip Generation Time Distribution.
===5.1 Background===
In general, an accident at a nuclear power plant is characterized by the following Emergency Classification Levels (see Appendix 1 of NUREG 0654 for details): 1. Unusual Event 2. Alert 3. Site Area Emergency 4. General Emergency At each level, the Federal guidelines specify a set of Actions to be undertaken by the licensee, and by state and local offsite authorities.
As a planning basis, we will adopt a conservative posture, in accordance with Section 1.2 of NUREG/CR-7002, that a rapidly escalating accident will be considered in calculating the Trip Generation Time. We will assume: 1. The Advisory to Evacuate will be announced coincident with the siren notification.
: 2. Mobilization of the general population will commence within 15 minutes after the siren notification.
: 3. ETE are measured relative to the Advisory to Evacuate.We emphasize that the adoption of this planning basis is not a representation that these events will occur within the indicated time frame. Rather, these assumptions are necessary in order to: 1. Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Generation distribution in the format recommended in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863.
: 2. Identify temporal points of reference that uniquely define "Clear Time" and ETE.It is likely that a longer time will elapse between the various classes of an emergency.
For example, suppose one hour elapses from the siren alert to the Advisory to Evacuate.
In this case, it is reasonable to expect some degree of spontaneous evacuation by the public during this one-hour period. As a result, the population within the EPZ will be lower when the Advisory to Evacuate is announced, than at the time of the siren alert. In addition, many will engage in preparation activities to evacuate, in anticipation that an Advisory will be broadcast.
Thus, the time needed to complete the mobilization activities and the number of people remaining to evacuate the EPZ after the Advisory to Evacuate, will both be somewhat less than Perry Nuclear Power Plant 5-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 the estimates presented in this report. Consequently, the ETE presented in this report are higher than the actual evacuation time, if this hypothetical situation were to take place.The notification process consists of two events: 1. Transmitting information using the alert notification systems available within the EPZ (e.g., sirens, tone alerts, EAS broadcasts, loud speakers).
: 2. Receiving and correctly interpreting the information that is transmitted.
The population within the EPZ is dispersed over an area of approximately 160 square miles and are engaged in a wide variety of activities.
It must be anticipated that some time will elapse between the transmission and receipt of the information advising the public of an accident.The amount of elapsed time will vary from one individual to the next depending on where that person is, what that person is doing, and related factors. Furthermore, some persons who will be directly involved with the evacuation process may be outside the EPZ at the time the emergency is declared.
These people may be commuters, shoppers and other travelers who reside within the EPZ and who will return to join the other household members upon receiving notification of an emergency.
As indicated in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863, the estimated elapsed times for the receipt of notification can be expressed as a distribution reflecting the different notification times for different people within, and outside, the EPZ. By using time distributions, it is also possible to distinguish between different population groups and different day-of-week and time-of-day scenarios, so that accurate ETE may be computed.For example, people at home or at work within the EPZ will be notified by siren, and/or tone alert and/or radio (if available).
Those well outside the EPZ will be notified by telephone, radio, TV and word-of-mouth, with potentially longer time lags. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the EPZ population will differ with time of day -families will be united in the evenings, but dispersed during the day. In this respect, weekends will differ from weekdays.As indicated in Section 4.1 of NUREG/CR-7002, the information required to compute trip generation times is typically obtained from a telephone survey of EPZ residents.
Such a survey was conducted in support of this ETE study. Appendix F presents the survey sampling plan, survey instrument, and raw survey results. It is important to note that the shape and duration of the evacuation trip mobilization distribution is important at sites where traffic congestion is not expected to cause the evacuation time estimate to extend in time well beyond the trip generation period. The remaining discussion will focus on the application of the trip generation data obtained from the telephone survey to the development of the ETE documented in this report.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 5-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2
===5.2 Fundamental===
Considerations The environment leading up to the time that people begin their evacuation trips consists of a sequence of events and activities.
Each event (other than the first) occurs at an instant in time and is the outcome of an activity.Activities are undertaken over a period of time. Activities may be in "series" (i.e., to undertake an activity implies the completion of all preceding events) or may be in parallel (two or more activities may take place over the same period of time). Activities conducted in series are functionally dependent on the completion of prior activities; activities conducted in parallel are functionally independent of one another. The relevant events associated with the public's preparation for evacuation are: Event Number 1 2 3 4 5 Event Description Notification Awareness of Situation Depart Work Arrive Home Depart on Evacuation Trip Associated with each sequence of events are one or more activities, as outlined below: Table 5-1. Event Sequence for Evacuation Activities Event~euence Ativity isrbto 142 Receive Notification 1 243 Prepare to Leave Work 2 2,3 --4 Travel Home 3 2,4 -*5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate 4 N/A Snow Clearance 5 These relationships are shown graphically in Figure 5-1.0 S An Event is a 'state' that exists at a point in time (e.g., depart work, arrive home)An Activity is a 'process' that takes place over some elapsed time (e.g., prepare to leave work, travel home)As such, a completed Activity changes the 'state' of an individual (e.g., the activity, 'travel home'changes the state from 'depart work' to 'arrive home'). Therefore, an Activity can be described as an 'Event Sequence';
the elapsed times to perform an event sequence vary from one person to the next and are described as statistical distributions on the following pages.An employee who lives outside the EPZ will follow sequence (c) of Figure 5-1. A household Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 within the EPZ that has one or more commuters at work, and will await their return before beginning the evacuation trip will follow the first sequence of Figure 5-1(a). A household within the EPZ that has no commuters at work, or that will not await the return of any commuters, will follow the second sequence of Figure 5-1(a), regardless of day of week or time of day.Households with no commuters on weekends or in the evening/night-time, will follow the applicable sequence in Figure 5-1(b). Transients will always follow one of the sequences of Figure 5-1(b). Some transients away from their residence could elect to evacuate immediately without returning to the residence, as indicated in the second sequence.It is seen from Figure 5-1, that the Trip Generation time (i.e., the total elapsed time from Event 1 to Event 5) depends on the scenario and will vary from one household to the next.Furthermore, Event 5 depends, in a complicated way, on the time distributions of all activities preceding that event. That is, to estimate the time distribution of Event 5, we must obtain estimates of the time distributions of all preceding events. For this study, we adopt the conservative posture that all activities will occur in sequence.In some cases, assuming certain events occur strictly sequential (for instance, commuter returning home before beginning preparation to leave, or removing snow only after the preparation to leave) can result in rather conservative (that is, longer) estimates of mobilization times. It is reasonable to expect that at least some parts of these events will overlap for many households, but that assumption is not made in this study.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 1 A11111 2 AftL 3 4 5 Residents 1 2 5 Households wait for Commuters' Residents Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Residents, Transients away from Residence Residents, Transients at Residence 1 2 4 5 Return to residence, then evacuate w Mw MW 1 2 5 Residents at home;transients evacuate directly[(b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 1 2 3, 5 (c) Emiployees who live outside the EPZ ACTIVITIES 1 -2 Receive Notification 2 -- 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 -4 Travel Home 2, 4 --0 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time 1. Notification
: 2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip'Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.2 Applies throughout the year for transients.
Figure 5-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2
===5.3 Estimated===
Time Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5 The time distribution of an event is obtained by "summing" the time distributions of all prior contributing activities. (This "summing" process is quite different than an algebraic sum since it is performed on distributions
-not scalar numbers).Time Distribution No. 1. Notification Process: Activity 1 --* 2 It is assumed (based on the presence of sirens within the EPZ) that 87 percent of those within the EPZ will be aware of the accident within 30 minutes with the remainder notified within the following 15 minutes. The notification distribution is given below: Table 5-2. Time Distribution for Notifying the Public.lapse Tim Pecnto (Mintes Pouato Noife 0 0 5 7 10 13 15 27 20 47 25 66 30 87 35 92 40 97 45 100 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Distribution No. 2, Prepare to Leave Work: Activity 2 -- 3 It is reasonable to expect that the vast majority of business enterprises within the EPZ will elect to shut down following notification and most employees would leave work quickly. Commuters, who work outside the EPZ could, in all probability, also leave quickly since facilities outside the EPZ would remain open and other personnel would remain. Personnel or farmers responsible for equipment/livestock would require additional time to secure their facility.
The distribution of Activity 2 -- 3 shown in Table 5-3 reflects data obtained by the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2.Table 5-3. Time Distribution for Employees to Prepare to Leave Work 0 0 35 94 5 50 40 94 10 69 45 96 15 75 50 96 20 80 55 97 25 81 60 99 30 92 75 100 NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response.
That is, the sample was reduced in size to include only those households who responded to this question.
The underlying assumption is that the distribution of this activity for the "Don't know" responders, if the event takes place, would be the same as those responders who provided estimates.
Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Distribution No. 3, Travel Home: Activity 2, 3 -+ 4 These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-4.Table 5-4. Time Distribution for Commuters to Travel Home--------------------------------------
Elpe Time Pecn Elpe-im ecn 0 0 40 87 5 10 45 93 10 28 50 94 15 42 55 94 20 57 60 98 25 64 75 99 30 79 90 100 35 82 NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Distribution No. 4, Prepare to Leave Home: Activity 2,4 -* 5 These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-5.Table 5-5. Time Distribution for Population to Prepare to Evacuate 0 0 15 19 30 61 45 69 60 86 75 91 90 94 105 94 120 99 135 100 NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Distribution No. 5, Snow Clearance Time Distribution Inclement weather scenarios involving snowfall must address the time lags associated with snow clearance.
It is assumed that snow equipment is mobilized and deployed during the snowfall to maintain passable roads. The general consensus is that the snow-plowing efforts are generally successful for all but the most extreme blizzards when the rate of snow accumulation exceeds that of snow clearance over a period of many hours.Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that the highway system will remain passable -albeit at a lower capacity -under the vast majority of snow conditions.
Nevertheless, for the vehicles to gain access to the highway system, it may be necessary for driveways and employee parking lots to be cleared to the extent needed to permit vehicles to gain access to the roadways.These clearance activities take time; this time must be incorporated into the trip generation time distributions.
These data are provided by those households which responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-6.Table 5-6. Time Distribution for Population to Clear 6"-8" of Snow fl ftIL¶~eE~III CumuEE latg1ivf~teLf(0 44 15 56 30 79 45 85 60 92 75 95 90 96 105 97 120 99 135 100 NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Mobilization Activities Notification
-Prepare to Leave Work -Travel Home -Prepare Home -Time to Clear Snow 1UU0 C.2 4-0 0 CL E 0 U C 0.0L 80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 120 150 Elapsed Time from Start of Mobilization Activity (min)180 210 Figure 5-2. Evacuation Mobilization Activities Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2
===5.4 Calculation===
of Trip Generation Time Distribution The time distributions for each of the mobilization activities presented herein must be combined to form the appropriate Trip Generation Distributions.
As discussed above, this study assumes that the stated events take place in sequence such that all preceding events must be completed before the current event can occur. For example, if a household awaits the return of a commuter, the work-to-home trip (Activity 3 -* 4) must precede Activity 4 -- 5.To calculate the time distribution of an event that is dependent on two sequential activities, it is necessary to "sum" the distributions associated with these prior activities.
The distribution summing algorithm is applied repeatedly as shown to form the required distribution.
As an outcome of this procedure, new time distributions are formed; we assign "letter" designations to these intermediate distributions to describe the procedure.
Table 5-7 presents the summing procedure to arrive at each designated distribution.
Table 5-7. Mapping Distributions to Events Apply " And T Distribution Obtaind Event Dei Distributions 1 and 2 Distribution A Event 3 Distributions A and 3 Distribution B Event 4 Distributions B and 4 Distribution C Event 5 Distributions 1 and 4 Distribution D Event 5 Distributions C and 5 Distribution E Event 5 Distribuitions' D and 5 ~ Distribuition F Eve~nt 5 _______ ____Table 5-8 presents a description of each of the final trip generation distributions achieved after the summing process is completed.
Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 5-8. Description of the Distributions Dstrbto Description Time distribution of commuters departing place of work (Event 3). Also applies A to employees who work within the EPZ who live outside, and to Transients within the EPZ.B Time distribution of commuters arriving home (Event 4).Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving home to begin the evacuation trip (Event 5).D Time distribution of residents without commuters returning home, leaving home to begin the evacuation trip (Event 5).E Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving home to begin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).Time distribution of residents with no commuters returning home, leaving to begin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).5.4.1 Statistical Outliers As already mentioned, some portion of the survey respondents answer "don't know" to some questions or choose to not respond to a question.
The mobilization activity distributions are based upon actual responses.
But, it is the nature of surveys that a few numeric responses are inconsistent with the overall pattern of results. An example would be a case in which for 540 responses, almost all of them estimate less than two hours for a given answer, but 3 say "four hours" and 4 say "six or more hours".These "outliers" must be considered:
are they valid responses, or so atypical that they should be dropped from the sample?In assessing outliers, there are three alternates to consider: 1) Some responses with very long times may be valid, but reflect the reality that the respondent really needs to be classified in a different population subgroup, based upon special needs;2) Other responses may be unrealistic (6 hours to return home from commuting distance, or 2 days to prepare the home for departure);
: 3) Some high values are representative and plausible, and one must not cut them as part of the consideration of outliers.The issue of course is how to make the decision that a given response or set of responses are to be considered "outliers" for the component mobilization activities, using a method that objectively quantifies the process.There is considerable statistical literature on the identification and treatment of outliers singly or in groups, much of which assumes the data is normally distributed and some of which uses non-Perry Nuclear Power Plant 5-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 parametric methods to avoid that assumption.
The literature cites that limited work has been done directly on outliers in sample survey responses.
In establishing the overall mobilization time/trip generation distributions, the following principles are used: 1) It is recognized that the overall trip generation distributions are conservative estimates, because they assume a household will do the mobilization activities sequentially, with no overlap of activities;
: 2) The individual mobilization activities (prepare to leave work, travel home, prepare home, clear snow) are reviewed for outliers, and then the overall trip generation distributions are created (see Figure 5-1, Table 5-7, Table 5-8);3) Outliers can be eliminated either because the response reflects a special population (e.g., special needs, transit dependent) or lack of realism, because the purpose is to estimate trip generation patterns for personal vehicles;4) To eliminate outliers, a) the mean and standard deviation of the specific activity are estimated from the responses, b) the median of the same data is estimated, with its position relative to the mean noted, c) the histogram of the data is inspected, and d) all values greater than 3.5 standard deviations are flagged for attention, taking special note of whether there are gaps (categories with zero entries) in the histogram display.In general, only flagged values more than 4 standard deviations from the mean are allowed to be considered outliers, with gaps in the histogram expected.When flagged values are classified as outliers and dropped, steps "a" to "d" are repeated.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 5-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2
: 5) As a practical matter, even with outliers eliminated by the above, the resultant histogram, viewed as a cumulative distribution, is not a normal distribution.
A typical situation that results is shown below in Figure 5-3.100.0%90.0%80.0%70.0%0o.o r 60.0%C1 50.0%2? 40.0%30.0%E u 20.0%10.0%0.0% ........V! V! L Ili Vi It! If! If! L IlA LA LA LA LA LA LA.-i ri r4 r4c m ;r -1 LA Ln D 00 a) ~-i v-4 Center of Interval (minutes)-Cumulative Data --Cumulative Normal Figure 5-3. Comparison of Data Distribution and Normal Distribution
: 6) In particular, the cumulative distribution differs from the normal distribution in two key aspects, both very important in loading a network to estimate evacuation times: i Most of the real data is to the left of the "normal" curve above, indicating that the network loads faster for the first 80-85% of the vehicles, potentially causing more (and earlier) congestion than otherwise modeled;The last 10-15% of the real data "tails off" slower than the comparable "normal" curve, indicating that there is significant traffic still loading at later times.Because these two features are important to preserve, it is the histogram of the data that is used to describe the mobilization activities, not a "normal" curve fit to the data. One could consider other distributions, but using the shape of the actual data curve is unambiguous and preserves these important features;7) With the mobilization activities each modeled according to Steps 1-6, including preserving the features cited in Step 6, the overall (or total) mobilization times are constructed.
This is done by using the data sets and distributions under different scenarios (e.g., commuter returning, no commuter returning, no snow or snow in each). In general, these are additive, using Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 weighting based upon the probability distributions of each element; Figure 5-4 presents the combined trip generation distributions designated A, C, D, E and F. These distributions are presented on the same time scale. (As discussed earlier, the use of strictly additive activities is a conservative approach, because it makes all activities sequential
-preparation for departure follows the return of the commuter; snow clearance follows the preparation for departure, and so forth. In practice, it is reasonable that some of these activities are done in parallel, at least to some extent -for instance, preparation to depart begins by a household member at home while the commuter is still on the road.)The mobilization distributions that result are used in their tabular/graphical form as direct inputs to later computations that lead to the ETE.The DYNEV II simulation model is designed to accept varying rates of vehicle trip generation for each origin centroid, expressed in the form of histograms.
These histograms, which represent Distributions A, C, D, E and F, properly displaced with respect to one another, are tabulated in Table 5-9 (Distribution B, Arrive Home, omitted for clarity).The final time period (12) is 600 minutes long. This time period is added to allow the analysis network to clear, in the event congestion persists beyond the trip generation period. Note that there are no trips generated during this final time period.5-16 KLD Engineering, p.c.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2
====5.4.2 Staged====
Evacuation Trip Generation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:
: 1. Subareas comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately
: 2. Subareas comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the two mile region is cleared 3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, sheltered people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation
: 4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region are advised to begin evacuating when approximately 90% of those originally within the 2 mile region evacuate across the 2 mile region boundary 5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%Assumptions
: 1. The EPZ population in subareas beyond 5 miles will react as does the population in the 2 to 5 mile region; that is they will first shelter, then evacuate after the 9 0 th percentile ETE for the 2 mile region 2. The population in the shadow region beyond the EPZ boundary, extending to approximately 15 miles radially from the plant, will react as they do for all non-staged evacuation scenarios.
That is 20% of these households will elect to evacuate with no shelter delay.3. The transient population will not be expected to stage their evacuation because of the limited sheltering options available to people who may be at parks, on a beach, or other venues. Also, notifying the transient population of a staged evacuation would prove difficult.
: 4. Employees will also be assumed to evacuate without first sheltering.
Procedure 1. Trip generation for population groups in the 2 mile region will be as computed based upon the results of the telephone survey and analysis.2. Trip generation for the population subject to staged evacuation will be formulated as follows: a. Identify the 9 0 th percentile evacuation time for the subareas comprising the two mile region. This value, Tscen*, obtained from simulation results is scenario-specific.
It will become the time at which the region being sheltered will be told to evacuate for each scenario.b. The resultant trip generation curves for staging are then formed as follows: i. The non-shelter trip generation curve is followed until a maximum of 20%of the total trips are generated (to account for shelter non-compliance).
Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 ii. No additional trips are generated until time Tscen*iii. Following time Tscen*, the balance of trips are generated:
: 1. by stepping up and then following the non-shelter trip generation curve (if Tscen* is < max trip generation time) or 2. by stepping up to 100% (if Tscen* is > max trip generation time)c. Note: This procedure implies that there may be different staged trip generation distributions for different scenarios.
NUREG/CR-7002 uses the statement"approximately 90 percent" as the time to end staging and begin evacuating.
The value of Tscen* is 2:10 for non-snow scenarios and 2:20 for snow scenarios.
: 3. Staged trip generation distributions are created for the following population groups: a. Residents with returning commuters b. Residents without returning commuters c. Residents with returning commuters and snow conditions
: d. Residents without returning commuters and snow conditions Figure 5-5 presents the staged trip generation distributions for both residents with and without returning commuters; the 9 0 th percentile two-mile evacuation time is 130 minutes and 140 minutes for snow scenarios.
At the 90th percentile evacuation time, approximately 15-18% of the population advised to shelter has nevertheless departed the area. These people do not comply with the shelter advisory.
Also included on the plot are the trip generation distributions for these groups as applied to the regions advised to evacuate immediately.
Since the 9 0 th percentile evacuation time occurs before the end of the trip generation period, after the sheltered region is advised to evacuate, the shelter trip generation distribution rises to meet the balance of the non-staged trip generation distribution.
Following time Tscen*, the balance of staged evacuation trips that are ready to depart are released within 15 minutes. After Tscen*+15, the remainder of evacuation trips are generated in accordance with the unstaged trip generation distribution.
Table 5-10 provides the trip generation for staged evacuation.
5.4.3 Trip Generation for Waterways and Recreational Areas Section E.4.4 of the Ashtabula County Radiological Emergency Response Plan (January 2011)indicates that campgrounds/recreation areas will be notified by internal procedures.
Boaters will be notified by the U.S. Coast Guard, assisted by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) and Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will also broadcast notification via weather radios. Section E.4.6 of the plan indicates that 100% of the population will be notified in 45 minutes. The same text appears in Sections E.4.4 and E.4.6 of the Geauga and Lake County plans.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 5-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 As indicated in Table 5-2, this study assumes 100% notification in 45 minutes. Table 5-9 indicates that all transients will have mobilized within 2 hours. It is assumed that this 2 hour timeframe is sufficient time for boaters, campers, and other transients to return to their vehicles and begin their evacuation trip.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2
-Em ployees/Tra nsients-Res with Comm and Snow Mobilization Activities
-Residents with Commuters
-Residents with no Commuters-Res no Comm with Snow 100 80 C 4'CL 0 60 40 20 0 0 60 120 180 240 Elapsed Time from Evacuating Advisory (min)300 360 420 Figure 5-4. Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 5-9. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Unstaged Evacuation 1 15 8%8%0%1%0%1%2 15 36% 36% 0% 11% 0% 5%3 15 34% 34% 3% 25% 2% 14%4 15 14% 14% 11% 25% 5% 18%5 15 5% 5% 17% 15% 1% 16%6 15 2% 2% 18% 1% 14% 14%7 30 1% 1% 29% 7% 28% 16%8 30 0% 0% 13% 5% 19% 9%9 30 0% 0% 6% 1% 12% 5%10 30 0% 0% 2% 0% 6% 1%11 60 0% 0% 1% 0% 4% 1%12 600 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Notes:* Shadow vehicles are loaded onto the analysis network (Figure 1-2) using Distributions C and E for good weather and snow, respectively.
* Special event vehicles are loaded using Distribution A.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 j Table 5-10. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Staged Evacuation Peren gNlIof Toi~tal TipsUI~l Generated W'ithl iln Ind1[~icated Tmel Period*J[Residents Reidnt Reidnt wit Witou Reiet0itihu Tim Duato Comtr Comtr Comtr Sno CommutersSno 1 15 0%0%0%0%2 15 0% 2% 0% 1%3 15 1% 5% 0% 3%4 15 2% 5% 1% 4%5 15 3% 3% 2% 3%6 15 4% 2% 3% 3%7 30 6% 2% 6% 3%8 30 75% 80% 47% 52%9 30 6% 1% 31% 29%10 30 2% 0% 6% 1%11 60 1% 0% 4% 1%12 600 0% 0% 0% 0%*Trip Generation for Employees and Transients (see Table 5-9) is the same for Un-staged and Staged Evacuation.
Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 I Staged and Un-staged Evacuation Trip Generation-Employees
/ Transients
-Residents with no Commuters-Res no Comm with Snow-Staged Residents with no Commuters-Residents with Commuters-Res with Comm and Snow-Staged Residents with Commuters-Staged Residents with Commuters (Snow)100 80 4E-0.60 C 0 CK 4 0 0 0 20 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 Elapsed Time from Evacuating Advisory (min)Figure 5-5. Comparison of Staged and Un-staged Trip Generation Distributions in the 2 to 5 Mile Region 5-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 6 DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation "case" defines a combination of evacuation region and evacuation scenario.
The definitions of "region" and "scenario" are as follows: Region A grouping of contiguous evacuating subareas that forms either a "keyhole" sector-based area, or a circular area within the EPZ, that must be evacuated in response to a radiological emergency.
Scenario A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season, and weather conditions.
Scenarios define the number of people in each of the affected population groups and their respective mobilization time distributions.
A total of 20 regions were defined which encompass all the groupings of subareas considered.
These regions are defined in Table 6-1. The subarea configurations are identified in Figure 6-1.Each keyhole sector-based area consists of a central circle centered at the power plant, and three adjoining sectors, each with a central angle of 22.5 degrees, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance.
The central sector coincides with the wind direction.
These sectors extend to 5 miles from the plant (regions R04 and R05) or to the EPZ boundary (regions R06 through R17).Regions R01, R02 and R03 represent evacuations of circular areas with radii of 2, 5 and 10 miles, respectively.
Regions R18 through R20 are identical to regions R04, R02 and R05, respectively; however, those subareas between 2 miles and 5 miles are staged until 90% of the 2-mile region (region R01) has evacuated.
A total of 14 scenarios were evaluated for all regions. Thus, there are a total of 20x14=280 evacuation cases. Table 6-2 is a description of all scenarios.
Each combination of region and scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated.
Table 6-3 presents the estimated percentage of each population group evacuating for each scenario.Table 6-4 presents the vehicle counts for each scenario for an evacuation of region R03 -the entire EPZ.The vehicle estimates presented in Section 3 are peak values. These peak values are adjusted depending on the scenario and region being considered, using scenario and region specific percentages; the scenario percentages are presented in Table 6-3, while the regional percentages are provided in Table H-1. The percentages presented in Table 6-3 were determined as follows: The number of residents with commuters during the week (when workforce is at its peak) is equal to the product of 63% (the number of households with at least one commuter) and 40%(the number of households with a commuter that would await the return of the commuter prior to evacuating).
See assumption 3 in Section 2.3. It is estimated for weekend and evening scenarios that 10% of those households with commuters will have a commuter at work during those times.Employment is estimated to be at its peak during the winter, midweek, midday scenarios.
Employment is reduced slightly (96%) for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.
This is based on Perry Nuclear Power Plant 6-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 the estimation that 50% of the employees commuting into the EPZ will be on vacation for a week during the approximate 12 weeks of summer. It is further estimated that those taking vacation will be uniformly dispersed throughout the summer with approximately 4% of employees vacationing each week. Finally, it is estimated that only 10% of the employees are working in the evenings and during the weekends.Transient activity is estimated to be at its peak during summer weekends and less (50%) during the week. As shown in Appendix E, there is a significant amount of lodging and campgrounds offering overnight accommodations in the EPZ; thus, transient activity is estimated to be high during evening hours -75% for summer and 10% for winter. Transient activity on winter weekends is estimated to be 10%.As noted in the shadow footnote to Table 6-3, the shadow percentages are computed using a base of 20% (see assumption 5 in Section 2.2); to include the employees within the shadow region, all of whom are expected to evacuate, the voluntary evacuation is multiplied by a scenario-specific proportion of employees to permanent residents in the shadow region. For example, using the values provided in Table 6-4 for scenario 1, the shadow percentage is computed as follows: ( 963 20% x (1 + '3= 20.32%k 15,104 + 44,414 One special event -Fairport Harbor Fireworks Show -was considered as scenario 13. Thus, the special event traffic is 100% evacuated for scenario 13, and 0% for all other scenarios.
It is estimated that summer school enrollment is approximately 10% of enrollment during the regular school year for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.
School is not in session during weekends and evening, thus no buses for school children are needed under those circumstances.
As discussed in Section 7, schools are assumed to be in session during the winter season, midweek, midday and 100% of buses will be needed under those circumstances.
Transit buses for the transit-dependent population are set to 100% for all scenarios as it is assumed that the transit-dependent population is present in the EPZ for all scenarios.
External traffic is estimated to be reduced by 60% during evening scenarios and is 100% for all other scenarios.
Perry Nuclear Power Plant 6-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions I Subarea Region Description Lake RO 2-Mile Ring R02 5-Mile Ring R03 Full EPZ Region Wind Direction From 3 4 5 6 7 Lake R04 SW, WSW, W WNW, NW, NNW Refer to Region R02 ROS N, NNE, NE, ENE, E ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW Refer to Region R01 R06 N R07 NNE, NE, ENE R08 E ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW Refer to Region R01 R09 SW, WSW RIO W Rll WNW R12 NW R13 NNW R14 N R15 NNE, NE R16 ENE, E ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW Refer to Region R02 R17 SW, WSW 0 1 FA W, WNW Refer to Region R1l NW Refer to Region R12 6-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 6-1. PNPP EPZ Subareas Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions 1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None 2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None Midweek, 5 Summer Weekend Evening Good None 6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None 7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None 8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None 9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None 10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None Midweek, 12 Winter Weekend Evening Good None Fairport Harbor 13 Summer Weekend Evening Good Fireworks Show Roadway Impact -Lane 14 Summer Midweek Midday Good Closure on 1-90 WB I Winter assumes that school is in session (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer assumes that school is not in session.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 6-3. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios 1 25% 75% 96% 50% 20.32% 0% 10% 100% 100%2 25% 75% 96% 50% 20.32% 0% 10% 100% 100%3 10% 90% 10% 100% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 100%4 10% 90% 10% 100% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 100%5 10% 90% 10% 75% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 40%6 25% 75% 100% 5% 20.34% 0% 100% 100% 100%7 25% 75% 100% 5% 20.34% 0% 100% 100% 100%8 25% 75% 100% 5% 20.34% 0% 100% 100% 100%9 10% 90% 10% 10% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 100%10 10% 90% 10% 10% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 100%11 10% 90% 10% 10% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 100%12 10% 90% 10% 10% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 40%13 10% 90% 10% 75% 20.03% 100% 0% 100% 40%14 25% 75% 96% 50% 20.32% 0% 10% 100% 100%Resident Households with Commuters
....... Households of EPZ residents who await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Resident Households with No Commuters
..Households of EPZ residents who do not have commuters or will not await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Employees
..................................................
EPZ employees who live outside the EPZ Transients
..................................................
People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident for recreational or other (non-employment) purposes.Shadow ......................................................
Residents and employees in the shadow region (outside of the EPZ) who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation.
The basis for the values shown is a 20% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees.
Special Events ............................................
Additional vehicles in the EPZ due to the identified special events.School and Transit Buses ............................
Vehicle-equivalents present on the road during evacuation servicing schools and transit-dependent people (1 bus is equivalent to 2 passenger vehicles).
External Through Traffic .............................
Traffic on interstates/freeways and major arterial roads at the start of the evacuation.
This traffic is stopped by access control approximately 2 hours after the evacuation begins.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 6-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Table 6-4. Vehicle Estimates by Scenario 1 15,104 44,414 963 3,545 6,781 68 196 11,210 82,281 2 15,104 44,414 963 3,545 6,781 -68 196 11,210 82,281 3 1,510 58,008 100 7,090 6,685 --196 11,210 84,799 4 1,510 58,008 100 7,090 6,685 -196 11,210 84,799 5 1,510 58,008 100 5,318 6,685 --196 4,484 76,301 6 15,104 44,414 1,003 355 6,786 -676 196 11,210 79,744 7 15,104 44,414 1,003 355 6,786 -676 196 11,210 79,744 8 15,104 44,414 1,003 355 6,786 -676 196 11,210 79,744 9 1,510 58,008 100 709 6,685 --196 11,210 78,418 10 1,510 58,008 100 709 6,685 --196 11,210 78,418 11 1,510 58,008 100 709 6,685 --196 11,210 78,418 12 1,510 58,008 100 709 6,685 --196 4,484 71,692 13 1,510 58,008 100 5,318 6,685 2,551 -196 4,484 78,852 14 15,104 44,414 963 3,545 6,781 -68 196 11,210 82,281 Note: Vehicle estimates are for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (region R03)Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE)This section presents the current ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II System described in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover 20 regions within the PNPP EPZ and the 14 evacuation scenarios discussed in Section 6.The ETE for all evacuation cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables present the estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the evacuation regions for all evacuation scenarios.
The ETE of the 2-mile region in both staged and un-staged regions are presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5 defines the evacuation regions considered.
The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which are generated at 5-minute intervals.
===7.1 Voluntary===
Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation"Voluntary evacuees" are people within the EPZ in subareas for which an Advisory to Evacuate has not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate. "Shadow evacuation" is the voluntary outward movement of some people from the Shadow Region (outside the EPZ) for whom no protective action recommendation has been issued. Both voluntary and shadow evacuations are assumed to take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted evacuation region.The ETE for the PNPP EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown in Figure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20 percent of people located in subareas outside of the evacuation region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate.
Similarly, it is assumed that 20 percent of those people in the shadow region will choose to leave the area.Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially from the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. The population and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using the same methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). As discussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 60,979 people reside in the Shadow Region; 20 percent of them would evacuate.
See Table 6-4 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.Traffic generated within this Shadow Region, traveling away from the PNPP location, has a potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the evacuation region. All ETE calculations include this shadow traffic movement.7.2 Staged Evacuation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:
: 1. Subareas comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately.
: 2. Subareas comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the two mile region is cleared.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2
: 3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation while they shelter.4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region is advised to evacuate when approximately 90% of the 2 mile region evacuating traffic crosses the 2 mile region boundary.5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%.See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.
===7.3 Patterns===
of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the case when the entire EPZ (region R03) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, midday period under good weather conditions (scenario 1).Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F is defined as follows (HCM 2010, page 5-5): The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demand exceeds capacity) or have exceeded a specified service measure value, or combination of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory.
However, particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Several measures are available to describe individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOS F condition:
* Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceeded during the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);-Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, 1 h, 3 h); and o Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions.
These include measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specific intersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.
All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these Figures by a thick red line; all others are lightly indicated.
Congestion develops rapidly around concentrations of population and traffic bottlenecks.
Figure 7-3 displays the developing congestion within the population centers of Painesville to the west of PNPP, and Geneva to the east, just 30 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE). Note that Interstate-90 (1-90), which is servicing the external-external trips and the entering evacuating trips, is displaying heavy traffic demand (LOS D and E) on those sections exiting the EPZ to the west.At one hour after the ATE, Figure 7-4 displays fully-developed congestion within these population centers and along the exiting sections along 1-90. The congestion on the west is now Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 involving shadow evacuees from the Shadow Region in the Mentor community.
The confluence of the congestion in the communities of Painesville and Mentor is clearly impacting the rate of travel out of the western boundary of the EPZ.At 2 hours, as shown in Figure 7-5, the intense congestion on the west has "encouraged" many evacuees in that area to seek alternative routes to the south, resulting in new congestion in the area of Chardon. Likewise, the increased congestion on the east has diverted traffic southward to access 1-90 eastbound; unfortunately, 1-90 is still servicing external-external trips at this time and is displaying moderate congestion, limiting the service available to vehicles from within the EPZ. Interestingly, some vehicles on the east have migrated north to the coastal route (through Geneva-on-the-Lake) to travel east to Ashtabula.
Congested conditions remain in the Painesville/Mentor area on the west at 3 hours after the ATE (Figure 7-6), and in the Geneva area on the east. However, this congestion has been somewhat reduced within the past hour, as can be seen by comparing Figure 7-6 with Figure 7-5. With the external-external trips diverted outside the EPZ, 1-90 is now free of congestion.
Over the next half-hour, at time 3:30, the 5-mile area is cleared of congestion as shown in Figure 7-7. LOS F conditions remain in subarea 4 (Geneva).
Congestion has cleared in the Painesville/Mentor area. All other areas are free of congested conditions.
Finally, Figure 7-8 displays an EPZ that is essentially clear of evacuating traffic, at 4:30 after the ATE, which is at the completion of the trip-generation (mobilization) time. The lone remnant of congestion is in the Shadow Region to the east, at the narrowing of Route 20 from 2 outbound lanes to 1. Traffic congestion within the EPZ clears at 4:20 after the ATE.7.4 Evacuation Rates Evacuation is a continuous process, as implied by Figure 7-9 through Figure 7-22. These figures indicate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation of the full EPZ (region R03) under the indicated conditions.
One figure is presented for each scenario considered.
As indicated in Figure 7-9, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions.
Vehicles begin to evacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then traffic demand builds rapidly (slopes of curves increase).
When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.This decline in aggregate flow rate, towards the end of the process, is characterized by these curves flattening and gradually becoming horizontal.
Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes equally so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, all curves would retain the same slope until the end -thus minimizing evacuation time. In reality, this ideal is generally unattainable Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 reflecting the spatial variation in population density, mobilization rates and in highway capacity over the EPZ.7.5 Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) Results Table 7-1 through Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 20 evacuation regions and all 14 evacuation scenarios.
Table 7-3 through Table 7-4 present the ETE values for 2-mile region for both staged and un-staged 5-Mile regions. They are organized as follows: Tal-Cotet ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-1 population within a region, to evacuate from that region. All scenarios are considered, as well as staged evacuation scenarios.
ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-2 population within a region, to evacuate from that region. All scenarios are considered, as well as staged evacuation scenarios.
ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-3 population within the 2-mile region, to evacuate from that region with both concurrent and staged evacuations.
ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-4 population within the 2-mile region, to evacuate from that region with both concurrent and staged evacuations.
The animation snapshots described above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8.Most of the congestion was located in subareas 4 and 7 which are beyond the 5-mile area; this is reflected in the ETE statistics:
* The 90-percentile ETE for regions RO1 and R02 (2- and 5-mile areas) are comparable and generally range between 2:00 and 2:10 (slightly higher for rain and snow)." The 90-percentile ETE for regions R03 (full EPZ) and R06 -R13 (which extend to the EPZ boundary) are approximately an hour longer.The 1 0 0 th percentile ETE for all regions and for all scenarios are the same values as the mobilization times. This fact implies that the congestion within the EPZ dissipates prior to the end of mobilization, as was displayed in Figure 7-8.Comparison of scenarios 5 and 13 in Table 7-1 indicates that the Special Event -fireworks in Fairport Harbor -has little impact on the ETE for the 9 0 th percentile.
As discussed in Section 6, the external traffic is reduced by 60% for these scenarios as they are evening scenarios.
The additional 2,500 vehicles present for the special event increase congestion on the local roads in Painesville and on the ramps to 1-90. However, much of the capacity along 1-90 is available Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 because of the reduced external traffic. As a result, the 2- and 5-mile regions are not affected, while the ETE for the entire EPZ (region R03) increases by 10 minutes.Comparison of scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure -one lane westbound on 1-90 from the interchange with County Highway 227 (Exit 205) to the interchange with State Highway 306 (Exit 193) -does have a material impact on 9 0 th percentile ETE for keyhole regions with wind from the north and east (regions R06 through R08, R12 through R17), with up to 20 minute increases in ETE. Wind from the north and east carries the plume over Painesville, which routes traffic onto 1-90 westbound.
With a lane closed on 1-90 westbound in the Painesville, the capacity of 1-90 is reduced to half, increasing congestion and prolonging ETE. Regions R09 through R11 involve evacuation predominately eastbound along 1-90, US-20 and State Highway 84, and are not materially impacted by the decreased capacity westbound along 1-90.The results of the roadway impact scenario indicate that events such as adverse weather or traffic accidents which close a lane on 1-90, could impact ETE. State and local police could consider traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as a travel lane or re-routing of traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming 1-90. All efforts should be made to remove the blockage on 1-90, particularly within the first 3 hours of the evacuation.
===7.6 Staged===
Evacuation Results Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies. Note, regions R18 through R20 are the same geographic areas as regions R04, R02 and R05, respectively.
To determine whether the staged evacuation strategy is worthy of consideration, one must show that the ETE for the 2 Mile region can be reduced without significantly affecting the region between 2 miles and 5 miles. In all cases, as shown in these tables, the ETE for the 2 mile region is unchanged when a staged evacuation is implemented.
The reason for this is that the congestion within the 5-mile area does not extend upstream to the extent that it penetrates to within 2 miles of the PNPP. Consequently, the impedance, due to this congestion within the S-mile area, to evacuees from within the 2-mile area is not sufficient to materially influence the 90th percentile ETE for the 2-mile area. Therefore, staging the evacuation to sharply reduce congestion within the 5-mile area, provides no benefits to evacuees from within the 2 mile region and unnecessarily delays the evacuation of those beyond 2 miles.While failing to provide assistance to evacuees from within 2 miles of the PNPP, staging produces a negative impact on the ETE for those evacuating from within the 5-mile area. A comparison of ETE between regions R18 and R04; R19 and R02; and R20 and RO5; reveals that staging retards the 9 0 th percentile evacuation time for those in the 2 to 5-mile area by up to 1 hour (see Table 7-1). This extending of ETE is due to the delay in beginning the evacuation trip, experienced by those who shelter, plus the effect of the trip-generation "spike" (significant Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 volume of traffic beginning the evacuation trip at the same time) that follows their eventual ATE, in creating congestion within the EPZ area beyond 2 miles.In summary, the staged evacuation option provides no benefits and adversely impacts many evacuees located beyond 2 miles from the PNPP.7.7 Guidance on Using ETE Tables The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRC guidance calls for the 9 0 th percentile).
The applicable value of ETE within the chosen Table may then be identified using the following procedure:
: 1. Identify the applicable scenario: " Season" Summer" Winter (also Autumn and Spring)" Day of Week" Midweek" Weekend" Time of Day" Midday" Evening" Weather Condition" Good Weather" Rain" Snow* Special Event" Fairport Harbor Fireworks Show" Road Closure (A lane on 1-90 WB is closed)" Evacuation Staging" No, Staged Evacuation is not considered" Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year, some further clarification is warranted:
The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the tables. For these conditions, scenarios (2) and (4) apply.The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the tables. For these conditions, scenarios (7) and (10) for rain apply.The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and snow are not explicitly identified in the tables. For these conditions, scenarios (8) and (11) for snow apply.The seasons are defined as follows: N Summer assumes that public schools are not in session.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2
* Winter (includes Spring and Autumn) considers that public schools are in session.* Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or are travelling to/from work.2. With the desired percentile ETE and scenario identified, now identify the evacuation region:* Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the wind direction).
This direction is expressed in terms of compass orientation:
from N, NNE, NE, ...* Determine the distance that the evacuation region will extend from the nuclear power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate regions are given below: 0 2 Miles (region R01)0 To 5 Miles (regions R02, R04 and R05)E to EPZ Boundary (regions R03, R06 through R17)* Enter Table 7-5 and identify the applicable group of candidate regions based on the distance that the selected region extends from the PNPP Site. Select the evacuation region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from the first column of the Table.3. Determine the ETE table based on the percentile selected.
Then, for the scenario identified in Step 1 and the region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:* The columns of Table 7-1 are labeled with the scenario numbers. Identify the proper column in the selected Table using the scenario number defined in Step 1.* Identify the row in this table that provides ETE values for the region identified in Step 2.* The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the desired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.
Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Example It is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:
* Sunday, August 10t' at 4:00 AM.* It is raining.* Wind direction is toward the northeast (NE).* Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 5-mile radius and downwind to 10 miles (to EPZ boundary).
* The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population from within the impacted region.* A staged evacuation is not desired.Table 7-1 is applicable because the 90th percentile ETE is desired. Proceed as follows: 1. Identify the scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining. Entering Table 7-1, it is seen that there is no match for these descriptors.
However, the clarification given above assigns this combination of circumstances to scenario 4.2. Enter Table 7-5 and locate the region described as "Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction toward the NE and read region R17 in the first column of that row.3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for scenario 4 and region R17. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for region R17; it contains the ETE value of 3:00.7-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend Eire Midweek Weekend EPdwend Weekeek Weekend Weekend i ;Scnrio: 2:10 (2:1 2:05 2:10 2:5) 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10) 2:15 (2:0 2:05 2:10)Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region GoodGoo Rain od God Rain Snow WahrRain Snow Weather RanWeather Weather Weather WahrWeather Event Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ R01 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:10 R02 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:10 2:15 2:30 2:05 2:10 2:20 2:00 2:00 2:10 R03 2:55 3:10 3:00 3:10 2:55 2:55 3:05 3:30 2:45 3:05 3:25 2:45 3:05 3:10 2-Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:101 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:20 2:00 2:00 2:05 ROS 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:05 2:00 2:05 2:05 2:15 12:00 2:05 2:15 2:00 2:00 2:05 2-Mile Ring and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R06 2:30 2:45 2:30 2:45 2:30 2:30 2:45 3:10 2:25 2:40 3:00 2:25 2:40 2:50 R07 2:35 2:50 2:35 2:50 2:30 2:30 2:45 3:10 2:25 2:45 3:05 2:25 2:45 2:50 R08 2:35 2:50 2:35 2:50 2:30 2:30 2:40 3:10 2:25 2:35 3:00 2:25 2:45 2:50 R09 3:00 3:05 3:00 3:05 2:55 3:00 3:00 3:25 2:55 2:55 3:20 3:00 3:00 3:00 RIO 2:55 3:00 2:55 3:05 2:55 3:00 3:00 3:25 2:50 2:55 3:20 2:55 2:50 2:55 R11 2:55 3:00 2:50 3:00 2:50 2:50 3:00 3:25 2:45 2:50 3:20 2:50 2:50 2:55 R12 2:45 2:50 2:45 2:50 2:40 2:50 2:55 3:20 2:40 2:45 3:10 2:45 2:45 3:00 R13 2:15 2:20 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:15 2:20 2:40 2:10 2:15 2:30 2:05 2:05 2:25 5-Mile Ring and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R14 2:40 2:55 2:35 2:55 2:35 2:35 2:50 3:15 2:35 2:45 3:05 2:25 2:40 2:55 R1S 2:35 2:50 2:40 2:50 2:30 2:35 2:45 3:10 2:30 2:40 3:05 2:25 2:40 2:55 R16 2:35 2:55 2:35 2:50 2:30 2:30 2:45 3:10 2:25 2:40 3:00 2:25 2:40 2:50 R17 2:50 3:00 2:55 3:00 2:55 2:50 3:00 3:25 2:50 2:55 3:15 2:50 2:50 2:55 Staged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R18 2:40 2:45 2:40 2:45 2:50 2:40 2:45 3:00 2:40 2:45 3:00 2:50 2:50 2:40 R19 2:55 3:00 2:55 2:55 3:00 2:55 3:00 3:15 2:55 2:55 3:10 2:55 2:55 2:55 R20 2:35 2:40 2:35 2:40 2:45 2:40 2:40 2:55 2:35 2:40 2:55 2:45 2:45 2:35 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Midweek Weekend MdekMidweek Weekend MdekWeekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Regn o GodnooaRi Snow Rain Snow Weather Event Impact Weather ______ Weather Weather Weather RaIn Weather Weather Evet _Ipac Entire 2-Mile Region, S-Mile Region, and EPZ R01 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 R02 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:55 4:35 4:35 4:40 4:35 4:35 4:35 R03 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:50 5:15 4:45 4:45 5:10 4:45 4:45 4:45 2-Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:50 1 4:35 4:35 4:40 4:35 4:35 4:35 ROS 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 1 4:40 j 4:35 4:35 4:50 4:35 4:35 4:35 2-Mile Ring and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R06 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 R07 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 R08 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 R09 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 5:00 4:45 4:45 5:00 4:45 4:45 4:45 RIO 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 5:05 4:45 4:45 5:00 4:45 4:45 4:45 R11 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:50 5:00 4:45 4:45 5:00 4:45 4:45 4:45 R12 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:50 5:10 4:45 4:45 5:10 4:45 4:45 4:45 R13 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:45 5-Mile Ring and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R14 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:45 R15 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:45 R16 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:45 R17 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 5:15 4:45 4:45 5:00 4:45 4:45 4:45 Staged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R18 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:45 4:35 4:35 4:45 4:35 4:35 4:35 R19 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:40 4:55 4:35 4:35 4:45 4:35 4:35 4:35 R20 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:40 4:35 4:35 4:40 4:35 4:35 4:35 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Region Region Good Ran Go an Good Good Rain Snow God Rain Snow Weathe Eventl Impacta Weather WeatherWather Weather Weater Ever Immer Weeken rWeekend y y Unstaged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-Milesd R01 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:10 R02 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:00 2:10 R04 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:10 ROS 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:10 Staged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to S-Miles R18 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:10 R19 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:00 2:10 R20 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:10 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend MidUted Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Ran Good Ran Good Good Rin So Good Rin So Good SpecIa Roadway W ea h e R in W eather Ra n W eather W eather Ra n n w W eather Ra n n w W eathe r Ev ent Im pact Unstaged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-Miles RO 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 R02 4:35 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:30 R04 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:30 ROS 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:30 4:30 4:30 Staged Evacuation  Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-Miles R18 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:30 4:30 4:30 R19 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:30 4:30 4:30 R20 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:30 4:30 4:30 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions~Subarea Region Description
_ Lake RO 2-Mile Ring R02 5-Mile Ring R03 Full EPZ Region Wind Direction From 1 3 4 5 6 7 Lake R04 SW, WSW, W WNW, NW, NNW Refer to Region R02 ROS N, NNE, NE, ENE, E ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW Refer to Region R01 R."0 ..N ;. ..R06N R07 NNE, NE, ENE R08 E ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW Refer to Region R01 R09 SW, WSW R10 W 1111 WNW R12 NW R13 NNW R14 N R15 NNE, NE R16 ENE, E ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW Refer to Region R02 R17 SW, WSW W, WNW Refer to Region R11 NW Refer to Region R12 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-2. PNPP Shadow Region 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate 7-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours, 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-8. Congestion Patterns at 4 Hours, 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%90 80 an 70 4-760 E 50 4030 30>1 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 1 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ* 90% 0 100%90 80 an 70 C S60 C 50'A 40* C 30> 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 2 for Region R03 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ
* 90% 0 100%to 4-'U%Z"a'90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 3 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%C 4-'U';.~ -U UC'U C we* .C'I 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-~--- w 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 4 for Region R03 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ
* 90% 0 100%90 80 an 70 m -;Z 60:' 50' 40" 30 30> 20 10 0 L 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 5 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ
* 90% 0 100%Uj'0 M C 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 2 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 6 for Region R03 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%90 80 70 4-,6 I 50 wo 40". 30> 20 10 0 odd 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 7 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 1001YO 90 80 70 C m~ 60 50 IA Uo 40" 30> 20 10 0 jf 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)360 Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 8 for Region R03 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Do LU'A0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring IEntire EPZ
* 90% 0 100%0?0 01 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-17. Evacuation lime Estimates
-Scenario 9 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ* 90%
* 100%an C''A 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240R270n30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-18. Evacuation rime Estimates
-Scenario 10 for Region R03 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%C 4~fUu~UC'U w* .C GD 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 11 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ
* 90% 0 100%C UC 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 2 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 12 for Region R03 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 4-:0 0U'Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Evening, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 ___10 0 VI C 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 13 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ
* 90% 0 100%CA&#xfd;E LU C 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-00000'..Ow-400, 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-22. Evacuation Time Estimates
-Scenario 14 for Region R03 7-28 KID Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles.
The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities such as schools, medical facilities, and correctional facilities; and (3) homebound special needs population.
These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of"passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.Specifically:
* Bus drivers must be alerted* They must travel to the bus depot* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. Based on experience at other plants, it is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 90 minutes extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to be evacuated.
During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families.
Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting family units is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current emergency plan information disseminated to residents of the Perry Nuclear Power Plant EPZ indicates that parents should not pick up children at school; rather, they should pick up children at the receiving school. Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population.
Based on discussions with FirstEnergy and the OROs, this report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that all schoolchildren will be evacuated by bus (no children will be picked up by their parents and no high school students will evacuate in personal vehicles) to present an upper bound estimate of buses required.
It is assumed that children at day-care centers are picked up by parents or guardians and that the time to perform this activity is included in the trip generation times discussed in Section 5.The procedure is:* Estimate demand for transit service* Estimate time to perform all transit functions Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2
* Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the receiving school 8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand Estimate The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service:* Those persons in households that do not have a vehicle available.
* Those persons in households that do have vehicle(s) that would not be available at the time the evacuation is advised.In the latter group, the vehicle(s) may be used by a commuter(s) who does not return (or is not expected to return) home to evacuate the household.
Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note: Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.
For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren.
The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.
However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends. Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit dependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.
The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children (roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 xl0) = 27. On this basis, the average load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.[20 + (3 x 10)1 + 40 x 1.5 = 1.00 Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 2,931 people. Therefore, a total of 98 bus runs are required to transport this population to care centers.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the PNPP EPZ: n P = No. of HH x I[(% HH with i vehicles) x [(Average HH Size) -i]) X A'Ci i=o Where, A = Percent of households with commuters C = Percent of households who will not await the return of a commuter P = 44,413 x [0.030 x 1.20 + 0.27 x (1.58 -1) x 0.63 x 0.60 + 0.468 x (2.55 -2)x (0.63 x 0.60)2] = 44,413 x 0.132 = 5,861 B = (0.5 x P) -30 = 98 These calculations are explained as follows: All members (1.20 avg.) of households (HH) with no vehicles (3.0%) will evacuate by public transit or ride-share.
The term 44,413 (number of households) x 0.030 x 1.20, accounts for these people.The members of HH with 1 vehicle away (27.0%), who are at home, equal (1.58-1).The number of HH where the commuter will not return home is equal to (44,413 x 0.270 x 0.63 x 0.60), as 63% of EPZ households have a commuter, 60% of which would not return home in the event of an emergency.
The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms.The members of HH with 2 vehicles that are away (46.8%), who are at home, equal (2.55 -2). The number of HH where neither commuter will return home is equal to 44,413 x 0.468 x (0.63 x 0.60)2. The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms (the last term is squared to represent the probability that neither commuter will return).Households with 3 or more vehicles are assumed to have no need for transit vehicles.The total number of persons requiring public transit is the sum of such people in HH with no vehicles, or with I or 2 vehicles that are away from home.The estimate of transit-dependent population in Table 8-1 far exceeds the number of registered transit-dependent persons in the EPZ as provided by the counties (discussed below in Section 8.5). This is consistent with the findings of NUREG/CR-6953, Volume 2, in that a large majority of the transit-dependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants do not register with their local emergency response agency.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2
===8.2 School===
Population -Transit Demand Table 8-2 presents the school population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all schools within the EPZ for the 2011-2012 school year. This information was provided by the local county emergency management agencies.
The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Bus Runs Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:
* No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for primary schools and 50 for middle and high schools.Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.* No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.The counties in the EPZ could introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated.
In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents (although they are not advised to do so) can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.
Lake Erie College is located within the EPZ. Based on information provided on the U.S. News &World Reports website, the enrollment is 1,569 students, "72% of students live in college-owned, -operated, or -affiliated housing." The remaining students live off campus or commute.The 72% of students who live on campus are counted as permanent residents and evacuate in personal vehicles.
It is assumed the off-campus and commuting students live within the EPZ and also evacuate in personal vehicles.
Based on information provided by FirstEnergy, Lake County does not provide public transportation to assist in the evacuation of Lake Erie College.Therefore, Lake Erie College students are not considered in the school population and transit demand.Table 8-3 presents a list of the receiving schools for each school in the EPZ. Students will be transported to these centers where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families.8.3 Special Facility Demand Table 8-4 presents the census of special facilities in the EPZ. Approximately 1,175 people have been identified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities.
The capacity and current census for each facility were provided by the county emergency management agencies.
The number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound, and bed-ridden people at each facility was not available.
A Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 representative from FirstEnergy spoke with several nursing homes in the EPZ and found that on average, the percentage of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden populations are 20%, 60% and 20%, respectively.
These percentages were applied to estimate the data provided in Table 8-4.The transportation requirements for the special facility population are also presented in Table 8-4. The number of ambulance runs is determined by assuming that 2 patients can be accommodated per ambulance trip; the number of wheelchair bus runs assumes 15 wheelchairs per trip and the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip.8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Dependent People EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if school is in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency.
In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat"inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the receiving school after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees.
For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted evacuation region is other than R03 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions.
Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations.
The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.Activity:
Mobilize Drivers (A-4B-)C)Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive at the facility to be evacuated.
It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, drivers would likely require 90 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities.
Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -100 minutes when raining, 110 minutes when snowing.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Activity:
Board Passengers (C--)D)Based on discussions with offsite agencies, a loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses is used.For multiple stops along a pick-up route (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed,"v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:
T= t+ +t=B+2t =B+2v a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers.
The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v 2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e., pickup time, P) to service passengers is: P = T- = B +a a Assigning reasonable estimates:
B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop S v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec* a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P = 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.Activity:
Travel to EPZ Boundary (D-0E)School Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by the EPZ county emergency management agencies and are summarized in Table 8-5. Also included in the table are the number of buses needed to evacuate medical facilities, transit-dependent population, homebound special needs (discussed below in Section 8.5) and correctional facilities (discussed below in Section 8.6).These numbers indicate there are sufficient resources available to evacuate everyone in a single wave, with exception for the bedridden population within the EPZ, which requires two waves of ambulance transportation.
The buses servicing the schools are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate -90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time -in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate receiving school. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary.
Each bus route is given an identification number Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations).
Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows: Average Speed ZXt length of link i (mi)Zl Delay on link i (min. ) + length of link i (mi.) 60 min.Mi. 1 hr.current speed on link i 7- hr 60 min.1 hr.The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school evacuation, and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the receiving school was computed assuming an average speed of 40 mph, 35 mph, and 30 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.
Speeds were reduced in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 to 35 mph (31.5 mph for rain -10% decrease -and 28 mph for snow -20%decrease) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 35 mph, as the school bus speed limit for state routes in Ohio is 35 mph.Table 8-7 (good weather), Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools in the EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the receiving school. The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of travel times associated with Activities A--)B-->C, C-->D, and D-4E (For example: 90 min. + 15 + 38 = 2:25 for Perry High School, with good weather).
The evacuation time to the receiving school is determined by adding the time associated with Activity E-->F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.Evacuation of Transit-Dependent Population The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization.
As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters), 90 percent of the Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 105 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate.
Subareas 4 and 7 have high transit-dependent populations and require more buses than any other subareas (Table 8-10). As such, two separate routes have been identified for each of these subareas.
The start of service on these routes is separated by 20 minutes, as shown in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13.Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes, then proceed out of the EPZ. Transit-dependent pick-up locations are provided annually to EPZ residents in the emergency preparedness brochure.
The county emergency plans do not define bus routes to service these pick-up locations.
The 9 bus routes shown graphically in Figure 8-2 and described in Table 8-10 were designed by KLD to service the major routes through each subarea and to service the pre-defined pick-up locations.
It is assumed that residents will walk to and congregate at these pre-designated pick-up locations, and that they can arrive at the stops within the 105 minute mobilization time (good weather) for buses.As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30 individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated with each stop.The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software.
Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school evacuation.
Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation time estimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.
For example, the ETE for the bus route servicing subarea 1 is computed as 105 + 18 + 30 = 2:35 for good weather (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes).
Here, 18 minutes is the time to travel 11.7 miles at 40.0 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route at 105 minutes. The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers.Activity:
Travel to Care Centers (E--F)The distances from the EPZ boundary to the care centers are measured using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the care center. The care centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general public.Assumed bus speeds of 45 mph, 40 mph, and 35 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.
Activity:
Passengers Leave Bus (F--G)A bus can empty within 5 minutes. The driver takes a 10 minute break.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Activity:
Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G-)C)The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people who mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and the bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel time to the care center.The second-wave ETE for the bus route servicing subarea 1 is computed as follows for good weather: Bus arrives at care center at 2:50 in good weather (2:35 to exit EPZ + 15 minute travel time to care center).Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15 minutes.Bus returns to EPZ and completes second route: 15 minutes (travel time to care center) + 18 minutes (11.7 miles @ 40.0 mph) = 33 minutes* Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.* Bus exits EPZ at time 2:35 + 0:15 + 0:15 + 0:33 + 0:30 = 4:10 (rounded to nearest 5 minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes are provided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people exceeds the ETE for the general population at the 90th percentile.
The relocation of transit-dependent evacuees from the care centers to congregate care centers, if the counties decide to do so, is not considered in this study.Evacuation of Ambulatory Persons from Special Facilities The bus operations for this group are similar to those for school evacuation except: Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany the patients.The passenger loading time will be longer at approximately one minute per patient to account for the time to move patients from inside the facility to the vehicles.Table 8-4 indicates that 19 bus runs, 59 wheelchair bus runs and 121 ambulance runs are needed to service all of the special facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, the counties can collectively provide 1,225 buses, 8 vans, 160 wheel-chair accessible buses, 43 wheelchair accessible vans and 97 ambulances.
Thus, there are sufficient resources to evacuate the ambulatory and wheelchair bound persons from the special facilities in a single wave, but a two-wave evacuation is needed for ambulances evacuating bedridden patients.As is done for the schools, it is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes. Specially trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) will be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.
Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90 minute timeframe.
Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Based on the locations of the medical facilities in Figure E-2, it is estimated that buses will have to travel 3.5 miles, on average, to leave the EPZ. The average speed output by the model at 90 minutes for region R03, scenario 6 is 27.0 mph; thus, travel time out of the EPZ is approximately 8 minutes.The ETE for buses evacuating ambulatory patients at medical facilities is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. For example, the calculation of ETE for the Pine Grove Nursing Home with 11 ambulatory residents is: ETE: 90 + 11 x 1 + 8 = 109 min. or 1:50 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.The ETE for buses evacuating wheelchair-bound patients at medical facilities assumes a loading times of 5 minutes per wheelchair bound person as staff will have to assist them in boarding the bus. For example, the ETE for the wheelchair bound at Pine Grove Nursing Home with 32 wheelchair-bound patients is (assuming concurrent loading on multiple buses with a capacity of 15 patients):
ETE: 90 + 15 x 5 + 8 = 2:55 (rounded to the nearest 5 minutes).The ETE for ambulances evacuating bedridden patients at medical facilities assumes 30 minutes loading time per bedridden person as staff will have to assist them in boarding an ambulance.
For example, the ETE for the bedridden patients at Pine Grove Nursing Home with 11 bedridden patients is (assuming concurrent loading on multiple ambulances with a capacity of 2 patients):
ETE: 90 + 2 x 30 + 8 = 2:40 (rounded to the nearest 5 minutes).If a second wave is needed, assume 10 minutes travel time to host facility, 30 minutes to unload passengers at host facility, 15 minutes travel time back to original medical facility, a loading time of 30 minutes per bedridden person and a travel time of 7 minutes (3.5 miles @ 30 mph -assumed)Second Wave ETE: 2:40 + 10 + 30 + 15 + 2 x 30 + 7 = 4:40 (rounded to the nearest 5 minutes)It is assumed that special facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate host medical facilities.
Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the care center before arriving at the host facility are not considered in this analysis.8.5 Special Needs Population The county emergency management agencies have a combined registration for transit-dependent and homebound special needs population.
Based on data provided by the counties, there are an estimated 20 homebound special needs people within the Ashtabula County portion of the EPZ, 12 people within the Geauga County portion of the EPZ and 175 people within the Lake County portion of the EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate.Details on the number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden people were not available.
It is assumed that the percentage of ambulatory (20%), wheelchair-bound (60%) and bedridden populations (20%) are similar to the percentages used for medical facilities within the EPZ. This results in 41 ambulatory persons, 125 wheelchair-bound persons and 41 Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 bedridden persons.ETE for Homebound Special Needs Persons Wheel-Chair Buses Section 8.3 identifies a wheelchair bus capacity of 15 wheelchairs per trip. As discussed above, there are 125 homebound special needs persons within the EPZ requiring a wheelchair bus.While only 9 wheelchair buses are needed from a capacity perspective, if 25 buses are deployed to service these special needs households (HH), then each bus would require 5 stops (assuming 1 person per HH). It is conservatively assumed that the households are spaced 3 miles apart, and that van speeds approximate 20 mph between households in good weather (10% slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed (scenario 6, region R03) after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.a. Assumed mobilization time for wheelchair bus resources to arrive at first household:
1:30 (1:40 in rain; 1:50 in snow)b. Loading time at first household:
5 minutes (as discussed above in Section 8.4)c. Travel to subsequent households:
4 @ 9 minutes (3 miles @ 20 mph, 18 mph in rain; 16 mph in snow) = 36 minutes (40 minutes -rain; 45 minutes -snow)d. Loading time at subsequent households:
4 @ 5 minutes = 20 minutes e. Travel time to EPZ boundary at 2:30 (hr:min after the advisory to evacuate; 2:45 -rain;3:00 -snow): 5 miles @ 21.2 mph (18.1 mph -rain; 17.9 mph -snow) = 14 minutes (17 minutes -rain; 17 minutes -snow)ETE: 1:30+ 5 + 36 + 20 + 14= 2:45 Rain ETE: 1:40 + 5 + 40 + 20 + 17 = 3:00 Snow ETE: 1:50 + 5 + 45 + 20 + 17 = 3:20 Buses Assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 41 households need to be serviced.
While only 2 buses are needed from a capacity perspective, if 8 buses are deployed to service these special needs HH, then each would require about 5 stops. The following outlines the ETE calculations:
: 1. Assume 8 buses are deployed, each with about 5 stops, to service a total of 41 HH.2. The ETE is calculated as follows: a. Buses arrive at the first pickup location:
90 minutes b. Load HH members at first pickup: 2 minutes c. Travel to subsequent pickup locations:
4 @ 9 minutes = 36 minutes d. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations:
4 @ 2 minutes = 8 minutes e. Travel to EPZ boundary:
14 minutes.ETE: 90+2+36+8+14=2:30 Rain ETE: 100 + 2 + 40 + 8 + 16 = 2:45 Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Snow ETE: 110 + 2 +45 + 8 + 16 = 3:00 The estimated travel time between pickups is based on a distance of 3 miles @ 20 mph = 9 minutes (speeds are 10% and 20% lower for rain and snow, respectively).
If planned properly, the pickup locations for each bus run should be clustered within the same general area. The estimated travel time to the EPZ boundary is based on a distance of 5 miles @ 22.0 mph = 14 minutes (average speed output by DYNEV at 2:15 -hr:min after ATE -good weather; 18.6 mph at 2:30 -rain; 18.6 mph at 2:45 -snow). It is assumed that mobilization time to first pickup is 10 minutes longer in rain and 20 minutes longer in snow. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.Assuming all HH members (avg. HH size equals 2.45 persons -Figure F-i) travel with the disabled person yields 5 x 2.45 = 13 persons per bus. From the perspective of bus capacity, fewer buses could be deployed.
For example, 4 buses, each servicing about 10 HH could accommodate 2.45 x 10 = 26 people, but the additional 1 stop would add (9 + 2) = 11 minutes to the ETE.Ambulances It is estimated that 21 ambulance runs will be needed to evacuate the 41 homebound bed-ridden persons within the EPZ.As discussed above, there are only 97 ambulances available within the EPZ and 121 are required to evacuate bedridden patients at medical facilities within the EPZ. It is therefore likely that a second wave of ambulance runs will be needed to evacuate all bedridden persons within the PNPP EPZ if the neighboring counties cannot fill the gap through mutual aid.Mobilization time and loading time are assumed to be 30 minutes each per ambulance.
Each ambulance servicing the homebound bed-ridden population will make 2 stops with an estimated distance of 5 miles between stops and an estimated distance of 5 miles to the EPZ boundary after the final stop. It is conservatively assumed that ambulances will travel at 30 mph from household to household.
Mobilization time is 5 minutes longer and travel speed is 10% less in rain -27 mph, and an additional 5 minutes longer and 10% less in snow -24 mph).All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.The ETE are computed as follows: a. Ambulance arrives at first household:
30 minutes b. Loading time at first household:
30 minutes c. Ambulance travels to second household:
5 miles @ 30 mph = 10 minutes d. Loading time at second household:
30 minutes e. Travel time to EPZ boundary:
5 miles @ 25.3 mph = 12 minutes (21.8 mph, 14 minutes -rain; 23.0, 13 minutes -snow)ETE: 30+30+10+30+12=1:50 Rain ETE: 35 + 30 + 11 + 30 + 14 = 2:00 Snow ETE: 40 + 30 + 13 + 30 + 13 = 2:05 Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 The following outlines the ETE calculations if a second wave is needed: a. Travel time to host facility:
10 miles @ 30 mph = 20 minutes (23 minutes -rain; 25 minutes snow)b. Unload passengers at host facility:
30 minutes. This is half the time needed to load the passengers, since (1) the host facility staff can provide assistance; and (2) ambulance driver need not move the patient inside the host facility.c. Travel time back to EPZ: 10 miles @ 30 mph = 20 minutes (23 minutes -rain; 25 minutes -snow)d. Loading time at first household:
30 minutes e. Ambulance travels to second household:
5 miles @ 30 mph = 10 minutes (11 minutes -rain; 13 minutes -snow)f. Loading time at second household:
30 minutes g. Travel time to EPZ boundary at 3:50 (4:05 -rain; 4:15 -snow): 5 miles @ 20.1 mph = 15 minutes (17.4 mph, 17 minutes -rain; 17.1 mph, 18 minutes -snow)ETE: 1:50+20+30+20+30+10+30+15=4:25 Rain ETE: 2:00 + 23 + 30 + 23 + 30 + 11 + 30 + 17 = 4:45 Snow ETE: 2:05 + 25 + 30 + 25 + 30 + 13 + 30 + 18 = 4:55 8.6 Correctional Facilities As detailed in Table E-9, there are two correctional facilities within the EPZ -Juvenile Justice Center and Lake County Jail. The total inmate population at these facilities is 382 persons. A total of 13 buses are needed to evacuate these two facilities, based on a capacity of 30 inmates per bus. Mobilization time is assumed to be 90 minutes (100 minutes in rain). It is estimated that it takes 15 minutes to load the inmates onto a bus, and that 5 buses can be loaded in parallel.
Thus, total loading time is estimated at approximately 45 minutes. The detailed evacuation plans for these facilities are confidential.
Using GIS software, the shortest route from the facility to the EPZ boundary, traveling away from the plant, is 3.6 miles. The travel time to traverse 3.6 miles is 10 minutes (22.0 mph at 2:15) in good weather, 11 minutes (18.8 mph at 2:25) in rain and 11 minutes (19.1 mph at 2:35) in snow. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.ETE: 90 + 45 + 10 = 2:25 Rain ETE: 100 + 45 + 11 = 2:35 Snow ETE: 110 + 45 + 11 = 2:45 Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 (Subsequent Wave)A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for the Care Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Care Center/Host Facility G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service Time A-+B Driver Mobilization B--C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route C->D Passengers Board the Bus D---E Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary E->F Bus Travels Towards Care Center Outside the EPZ F---G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Figure 8-2. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates 108,812 1.20 1.58 2.55 44,413 3.0% 27.0% 46.8% 63% 60% 5,861 50% 2,931 2.7%Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-2. School Population Demand Estimates 1 Perry High School 625 13 2 Homer Nash Kimball Elementary School 511 8 2 Madison High School 1,115 23 2 Madison Middle School 814 17 2 Red Bird Elementary School 519 8 3 Hale Road Elementary School 271 4 3 New Life Christian Academy 20 1 4 Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary School 130 3 4 Geneva High School 921 19 4 Geneva Middle School 429 9 4 North Madison Elementary School 390 6 4 Spencer Elementary School 428 7 5 Cork Elementary School 276 4 5 Ledgemont High School 200 4 6 Auburn Career Center 665 14 6 Leroy Elementary School 277 4 7 Buckeye Elementary School 442 7 7 Chestnut Elementary School 545 8 7 Clyde C. Hadden Elementary School 268 4 7 Elm Street Elementary School 477 7 7 Harding High School 297 6 7 Harvey High School 823 17 7 Henry F. LaMuth Middle School 817 17 7 Heritage Middle School 678 14 7 Hershey Montessori 250 5 7 J.R. Williams Junior High School 1,711 35 7 Madison Avenue Elementary School 373 6 7 Maple Elementary School 550 8 7 McKinley Elementary School 236 4 7 Melridge Elementary School 458 7 7 Our Shepherd Lutheran 138 3 7 Riverside High School 1,178 24 7 St. Gabriel 760 16 7 Sterling Morton Elementary School 280 4 7 Summit Academy 100 2 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-3. Receiving Schools Scol, Care Ce1 t Leroy Elementary School Madison Avenue Elementary School Andrews-Osborne Academy Melridge Elementary School Spencer Elementary School A-Tech Hershey Montessori School Bellflower Elementary School Sterling Morton Elementary School New Life Christian Academy Chardon High School Perry High School Elm Street Elementary School Eastlake Jefferson Elementary School Cork Elementary School Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary Jefferson Elementary School School Geneva High School Jefferson High School Geneva Middle School McKinley Elementary School Kirtland Elementary School Harding High School Kirtland Middle School Clyde C. Hadden Elementary School Hale Road Elementary School Lake Catholic High School Buckeye Elementary School Madison High School Lakeside High School North Madison Elementary School Lakeside Intermediate School Red Bird Elementary School Madison Middle School Lakeside Junior High School Ledgemont High School Ledgemont Elementary School Maple Elementary School Longfellow Elementary School Henry F. LaMuth Middle School J.R. Williams Junior High School Mentor High School Riverside High School Auburn Career Center Mentor Ridge Junior High School Homer Nash Kimball Elementary School Ontario Primary School St. Gabriel St. Mary's Church (Mentor)Our Shephard Lutheran Willoughby Edison Elementary School Chestnut Elementary School Willoughby Grant Elementary School Summit Academy Willoughby McKinley Elementary School Heritage Middle School Willoughby Middle School Harvey High School Willoughby/E.
Tech Center 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-4. Special Facility Transit Demand 4 Geneva Point Skilled Nursing & Rehabilitation Center Geneva 66 52 11 31 10 1 3 5 4 Geneva Village Retirement Community Geneva 80 76 15 46 15 1 4 8 4 Homestead Nursing Home Geneva 53 51 10 31 10 1 3 5 4 Manor Home -Nursing Home Geneva 54 53 11 32 10 1 3 5 4 Pine Grove Nursing Home Geneva 63 54 11 32 11 1 3 6 4 Rae Ann Nursing Facilities Geneva 84 77 16 46 15 1 4 8 4 Richwood Residential Centers Inc. Geneva 8 8 2 5 1 1 1 1 4 University Hospitals Geneva Medical Center Geneva 25 25 5 15 5 1 1 3 4 Walden Residential Center Geneva 8 8 2 5 1 1 1 1 Ashtabula County Subtotal:
441 404 83 243 78 9 23 42 4 Broadfield Manor Nursing Madison 88 82 17 49 16 1 4 8 4 Cardinal Woods Skilled Nursing Home Madison 120 115 23 69 23 1 5 12 4 Madison Health Care Inc. Madison 130 110 22 66 22 1 5 11 4 Madison Village Manor Madison 8 8 2 5 1 1 1 1 5 Stewart Lodge Madison 54 54 11 32 11 1 3 6 6 TriPoint Medical Center Concord 155 110 22 66 22 1 5 11 7 Altercare of Mentor Center -Rehabilitation Mentor 143 135 27 81 27 1 6 14 7 Homestead II Nursing Home Painesville 52 50 10 30 10 1 2 5 7 Ivy House Residential Care Painesville 22 22 5 13 4 1 1 2 7 Lakemed Nursing and Rehabilitation Center Mentor 100 85 17 51 17 1 4 9 Lake County Subtotals:
872 771 156 462 153 10 36 79 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources Perry School District 30 26 --Madison School District 45 40 --Riverside Local Schools 94 84 --Painesville City Schools 19 27 -Mentor Local Schools 72 82 -- -Willoughby-Eastlake Schools 105 95 -- -Kirtland 27 23 -- -Wickliffe School District 17 17 -- -Lake County DD 35 -LakeTran 110 8 -112 --Ledgemont School District 11 10 --Chardon School District 42 40 4 --Geauga Transit 19 -Geauga County N/A 68 4 -24 Lake County N/A 554 -43 53 Ashtabula County N/A 151 -20 Schools (Table 8-2): 338 -Medical Facilities (Table 8-4): 19 59 121 Transit-Dependent Population (Table 8-10): 98 -Homebound Special Needs (Section 8.5): 8 25 21 Correctional Facilities (Section 8.6): 13 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions 1 Auburn Career Center 843, 838, 207, 206, 210, 22, 23 2 Ledgemont High School 145, 146, 147, 148, 149 3 Leroy Elementary School 701, 702, 703, 704, 705, 720, 715 256, 257, 258, 259, 260, 261, 271, 262, 263, 264, 265, 266, 267, 268, 19, 357, 20, 21, 206, 207, 838, 208, 209, 4 New Life Christian Academy 837, 214, 215 5 Chestnut Elementary School 788, 317, 318, 202, 203, 204, 205, 206, 210, 22, 23 543, 542, 541, 540, 729, 568, 593, 597, 180, 181, 182, 6 Harding High School 183, 184, 185, 186 7 McKinley Elementary School 51, 52, 873, 511, 863, 862, 64, 65, 66, 67, 69, 771, 70 8 Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary 452,450, 2,447, 73,445, 74, 75, 76 9 Cork Elementary School 41, 400, 42, 43 445, 73, 447, 2, 31, 392, 393, 394, 32, 33, 34, 396, 30, 10 Geneva Elementary School 35, 36, 762, 761 11 Geneva Middle School 754, 753, 80, 32, 33, 34, 396, 30, 35, 36, 762, 761 84, 83, 82, 81, 753, 80, 32, 33, 34, 396, 30, 35, 36, 762, 12 Geneva High School 761 97, 98, 99, 164, 163, 162, 161, 160, 159, 158, 157, 156, 13 Homer Nash Kimball Elementary School 155, 154, 32, 80, 753, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87 284, 285, 286, 287, 288, 289, 290, 476, 799, 800, 309, 302, 477, 801, 730, 596, 594, 597, 180, 181, 182, 183, 15 Madison Avenue Elementary School 184, 185, 186 114, 116, 103, 102, 109, 128, 127, 126, 125, 725, 124, 16 Madison Middle School 452, 450, 2, 447, 73, 445, 74, 75, 76 102, 109, 128, 127, 126, 125, 725, 124, 452, 450, 2, 447, 18 North Madison Elementary School 73, 445, 74, 75, 76 114, 116, 103, 102, 109, 128, 127, 126, 125, 725, 124, 19 Red Bird Elementary School 452, 450, 2, 447, 73, 445, 74, 75, 76 20 Spencer Elementary School 73, 445, 74, 75, 76 21 Buckeye Elementary School 789, 491, 490, 489, 492, 494, 495, 498, 500, 338 22 Clyde C. Hadden Elementary School 495, 498, 500, 338 473, 298, 299, 475, 302, 477, 801, 730, 596, 594, 597, 23 Elm Street Elementary School 180, 181, 182, 183, 184, 185, 186 25 Henry F. LaMuth Middle School 846, 847, 838, 207, 206, 210, 22, 23 26 Hershey Montessori 790, 692, 691, 690, 505, 504, 338 299, 475, 302, 477, 801, 730, 596, 594, 597, 180, 181, 27 Summit Academy 182, 183, 184, 185, 186 234, 293, 300, 301, 175, 176, 177, 178, 179, 595, 180, 28 Hale Road Elementary School 181, 182, 183, 184, 185, 186 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Bus a.* -.a 310, 849, 311, 304, 483, 589, 587, 198, 197, 196, 213, 183, 184, 185, 186 30 Harvey High School 808, 807, 315, 316, 788, 317, 318, 202, 203, 204, 205, 31 Heritage Middle School 206, 210, 22, 23 237, 238, 239, 780, 240, 241, 256, 257, 258, 259, 260, 261, 271, 262, 263, 264, 265, 266, 267, 268, 19, 357, 20, 32 Perry High School 21, 206, 207, 838, 208, 209, 837, 214, 215 36 Subarea 1 227, 243, 170, 169, 168, 167, 984, 166, 165, 460 37 Subarea 2 165, 460, 118, 458, 454, 456, 102, 109 102, 109, 128, 127, 126, 980, 125, 725, 124, 452, 450, 2, 38 Subarea 4 A 447, 73, 445, 74, 75, 76 39 Subarea 4 B 58, 59, 60, 370, 61, 62, 369, 63, 368, 367, 64, 65, 66 136, 773, 772, 771, 770, 769, 768, 767, 766, 765, 764, 40 Subarea 5 763, 762, 761 41 Subarea 6 270, 701, 702, 703, 704, 705 42 Subarea 3 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 466, 233, 234, 293, 294 946, 540, 729, 568, 593, 594, 596, 730, 801, 477, 302, 309, 803, 308, 307, 806, 805, 807, 315, 809, 810, 811, 43 Subarea 7 A 812, 813, 814, 815, 816, 817, 818, 819, 820 234, 293, 294, 470, 471, 295, 296, 472, 297, 473, 298, 299, 475, 302, 478, 303, 480, 304, 305, 306, 485, 487, 44 Subarea 7 B 488, 489, 492, 494, 495, 498, 500, 338 5, 6, 362, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 360, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 65 1-90 WB 359, 19, 357, 20, 21, 966, 210, 22, 23 23, 22, 210, 966, 21, 20, 357, 19, 359, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 66 1-90 EB 13, 12, 360, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 362, 6, 5 232, 235, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 179, 595, 180, 181, 67 SR-2 WB 182, 183, 184, 185, 186 500, 498, 495, 494, 492, 489, 488, 487, 485, 306, 305, 304, 480, 303, 478, 302, 475, 299, 298, 473, 297, 472, 296, 295, 471, 470, 294, 293, 234, 233, 232, 231, 230, 229, 228, 227, 243, 170, 169, 168, 167, 984, 166, 165, 460, 118, 458, 454, 456, 102, 109, 128, 127, 126, 980, 68 US-20 EB 125, 725, 124, 452, 450, 2, 447, 73, 445, 74, 75 75, 74, 445, 73, 447, 2, 450, 452, 124, 725, 125, 980, 126, 127, 128, 109, 102, 456, 454, 458, 118, 460, 165, 166, 984, 167, 168, 169, 170, 243, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 466, 233, 234, 293, 294, 470, 471, 295, 296, 472, 297, 473, 298, 299, 475, 302, 478, 303, 480, 304, 69 US-20 WB 305, 306,485, 487, 488, 489, 492, 494,495, 498, 500 196, 197, 198, 199, 200, 201, 202, 203, 204, 205, 206, 70 SR-44 SB 207, 838, 208, 209, 837, 214, 215 8-22 KID Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Bus *Route.Nu be Decito Noe rvreIrmRut tr oE Budr 282, 784, 281, 280, 279, 278, 277, 27b, 275, 274, 273, 272, 261, 260, 259, 258, 257, 970, 256, 241, 253, 255, 254, 750, 751, 98, 99, 164, 163, 162, 161, 160, 159, 158, 157, 156, 155, 154, 32, 80, 753, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86 71 SR-84 EB 459, 458, 454, 456, 102, 109, 128, 127, 126, 980, 125, 72 Madison HS 725, 124, 452, 450, 2, 447, 73, 445, 74, 75 586, 483, 304, 305, 306,485, 487, 488,489, 492,494, 73 Maple Elementary School 495, 498, 500 74 Melridge Elementary School 318, 694, 693, 692, 691, 690, 505, 504 303, 480, 304, 305, 306, 485, 487, 488, 489, 492, 494, 75 Our Shepherd Lutheran 495, 498, 500 273, 274, 275, 276, 277, 278, 279, 280, 281, 784, 282, 786, 787, 312, 313, 314, 315, 316, 788, 317, 318, 202, 76 Riverside High/J. R. Williams Elementary 203, 204, 205, 206, 210, 22, 23 77 St Gabriel 695, 691, 690, 505, 504 78 Sterling Morton Elementary 525, 526, 527, 528, 529, 530, 531, 532, 571 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-7. School Evacuation Time Estimates
-Good Weather Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary School Cork Elementary School 90 15 10.0 25.80 24 2:10 10.0 16 2:2S Geneva High School 90 15 3.5 24.20 9 1:55 9.7 15 2:10 Geneva Middle School 90 15 3.2 21.80 9 1:55 9.7 15 2:10 Spencer Elementary School 90 15 4.4 15.30 18 2:05 11.4 18 2:.25 Auburn Career Center 90 15 4.5 33.60 8 1:55 4.7 8 2:05 Buckeye Elementary School 90 15 2.6 4.30 36 2:25 5.9 9 2:30 Chestnut Elementary School 90 15 3.8 8.00 29 2:15 7.6 12 2:30 Clyde C. Hadden Elementary School 90 15 0.8 2.90 18 2:05 5.9 9 2:15 Elm Street Elementary School 90 15 4.4 5.20 51 2:40 9.0 14 2:50 Hale Road Elementary School 90 15 6.0 24.30 15 2:00 4.8 8 2:10 Harding High School 90 15 4.7 4.20 67 2:55 9.0 14 3:10 Harvey High School 90 15 3.5 1.80 118 3:45 6.9 11 3:55 Henry F. LaMuth Middle School 90 15 3.3 5.30 38 2:25 4.7 8 2:35 Heritage Middle School 90 15 6.3 8.40 46 2:35 7.4 12 2:45 Hershey Montessori 90 15 1.2 3.90 19 2:05 1.2 2 2:10 Homer Nash Kimball Elementary School 90 15 7.7 4.30 109 3:35 9.8 15 3:50 J.R. Williams Junior High School 90 15 6.1 3.10 119 3:45 4.7 8 3:55 Leroy Elementary School 90 15 10.3 20.20 31 2:20 5.9 9 2:25 Madison Avenue Elementary School 90 15 4.9 7.60 39 2:25 8.6 13 2:40 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Madison High School 90 15 9.0 4.71 115 3:40 5.8 9 3:50 Madison Middle School 90 15 9.2 5.87 94 3:20 5.8 9 3:30 Maple Elementary School 90 15 3.0 2.40 76 3.05 8.8 14 3:15 McKinley Elementary School 90 15 4.4 6.00 45 2:30 10.0 15 L.45 Melridge Elementary School 90 15 1.9 5.10 22 2:10 6.1 10 2:20 New Life Christian Academy 90 15 13.0 25.90 31 2:20 5.2 8 2:25 North Madison Elementary School 90 15 7.0 5.27 80 3:05 7.9 12 3:20 Our Shepard Lutheran 90 15 3.0 1.70 107 3:35 9.4 15 3:50 Perry High School 90 15 15.1 24.10 38 2:25 5.2 8 2:35 Red Bird Elementary School 90 15 9.2 5.87 94 3:20 7.9 12 3:35 Riverside High School 90 15 6.1 3.10 119 3:45 4.7 8 3:55 St. Gabriel 90 15 0.6 22.50 2 1:50 2.4 4 1:55 Sterling Morton Elementary School 90 15 1.9 29.20 4 1:50 5.5 9 2:00 Summit Academy 90 15 6.1 5.50 67 2:55 9.4 5 3:10 Ledgemont High School 90 15 2.1 37.90 4 1:50 2.5 4 1:55 Maximum for EPZ: Maximum: Average for EPZ: Average: Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-8. School Evacuation Time Estimates
-Rain Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary School 100 20 3.8 6.50 36 2:40 10.0 18 2:SS Cork Elementary School 100 20 10.0 24.50 25 2:25 10.0 18 2:45 Geneva High School 100 20 3.5 10.80 20 2:20 9.7 17 2:40 Geneva Middle School 100 20 3.2 9.70 20 2:20 9.7 17 2:40 Spencer Elementary School 100 20 4.4 11.60 23 2:2 11.4 20 2:45 Auburn Career Center 100 20 4.5 24.50 11 2:15 4.7 9 2:20 Buckeye Elementary School 100 20 2.6 4.00 39 2:40 5.9 11 2:50 Chestnut Elementary School 100 20 3.8 7.60 31 2:35 7.6 14 2:45 Clyde C. Hadden Elementary School 100 20 0.8 4.80 11 2:15 5.9 11 2:25 Elm Street Elementary School 100 20 4.4 3.90 68 3:10 9.0 16 3:25 Hale Road Elementary School 100 20 6.0 16.20 23 2:25 4.8 9 2:35 Harding High School 100 20 4.7 6.30 45 2:45 9.0 16 3:05 Harvey High School 100 20 3.5 2.40 88 3:30 6.9 12 3:40 Henry F. LaMuth Middle School 100 20 3.3 5.80 35 2:35 4.7 9 2:45 Heritage Middle School 100 20 6.3 7.90 48 2:50 7.4 13 3:05 Hershey Montessori 100 20 1.2 3.70 20 2:20 1.2 3 2:25 Homer Nash Kimball Elementary School 100 20 7.7 7.80 60 3:00 9.8 17 3:20 J.R. Williams Junior High School 100 20 6.1 3.20 115 3:55 4.7 9 4:05 Leroy Elementary School 100 20 10.3 21.40 29 2:30 5.9 11 2:40 Madison Avenue Elementary School 100 20 4.9 4.40 67 3:10 8.6 15 3:25 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Madison High School 100 20 9.0 6.46 84 3:25 5.8 11 33 Madison Middle School 100 20 9.2 6.58 84 3:25 5.8 11 3:35 Maple Elementary School 100 20 3.0 2.80 66 i3:10 8.8 16 3:25 McKinley Elementary School 100 20 4.4 8.70 31 2:35 10.0 18 2:50 Melridge Elementary School 100 20 1.9 4.90 23 2:25 6.1 11 2:35 New Life Christian Academy 100 20 13.0 13.70 57 I 3:00 5.2 9 3:10 North Madison Elementary School 100 20 7.0 4.60 91 3:35 7.9 14 3:45 Our Shepard Lutheran 100 20 3.0 2.70 68 3:10 9.4 17 3:25 Perry High School 100 20 15.1 13.90 65 3:05 5.2 9 3:15 Red Bird Elementary School 100 20 9.2 6.58 84 3:25 7.9 14 3:40 Riverside High School 100 20 6.1 3.20 115 3:55 4.7 9 4:05 St. Gabriel 100 20 0.6 5.20 7 2:10 2.4 5 2:15 Sterling Morton Elementary School 100 20 1.9 26.30 5 2:05 5.5 10 2:15 Summit Academy 100 20 6.1 3.90 94 3:35 9.4 9 3:55 Ledgemont High School 100 20 2.1 33.60 4 2:05 2.5 5 2:10 Maximum for EPZ: Maximum: Average for EPZ: Average: Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-9. School Evacuation Time Estimates
-Snow Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary School 110 25 3.8 4.00 58 3:15 10.0 21 3:35 Cork Elementary School 110 25 10.0 21.20 29 2,5 10.0 21 3:05 Geneva High School 110 25 3.5 6.00 35 2:50 9.7 20 3:10 Geneva Middle School 110 25 3.2 5.30 37 2:55 9.7 20 3:15 Spencer Elementary School 110 25 4.4 7.40 36 2:55 11.4 Auburn Career Center 110 25 4.5 21.00 13 2:30 4.7 10 2:40 Buckeye Elementary School 110 25 2.6 4.80 33 2:50 5.9 12 3:00 Chestnut Elementary School 110 25 3.8 7.40 32 2:50 7.6 16 3:05 Clyde C. Hadden Elementary School 110 25 0.8 4.10 13 2:30 5.9 12 2:40 Elm Street Elementary School 110 25 4.4 6.00 44 3:00 9.0 19 3:20 Hale Road Elementary School 110 25 6.0 18.90 20 2:35 4.8 10 2:45 Harding High School 110 25 4.7 5.90 48 3:05 9.0 19 3:25 Harvey High School 110 25 3.5 2.00 106 4:05 6.9 14 4:15 Henry F. LaMuth Middle School 110 25 3.3 4.90 41 3:00 4.7 10 3:10 Heritage Middle School 110 25 6.3 7.60 50 3,05 7.4 15 3:20 Hershey Montessori 110 25 1.2 3.80 20 2:35 1.2 3 2:40 Homer Nash Kimball Elementary School 110 25 7.7 7.50 62 3:20 9.8 20 3:40 J.R. Williams Junior High School 110 25 6.1 3.10 119 4:15 4.7 10 4:25 Leroy Elementary School 110 25 10.3 16.30 38 2:55 5.9 12 3:05 Madison Avenue Elementary School 110 25 4.9 6.20 48 3:05 8.6 18 3:2S Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Madison High School 110 25 9.0 4.60 117 4:15 5.8 12 4:25 Madison Middle School 110 25 9.2 5.02 110 4:05 5.8 12 420 Maple Elementary School 110 25 3.0 2.20 83 3:40 8.8 18 4:00 McKinley Elementary School 110 25 4.4 10.90 25 2.40 10.0 20 3:00 Melridge Elementary School 110 25 1.9 4.00 28 2:45 6.1 13 3:00 New Life Christian Academy 110 25 13.0 16.70 47 3,05 5.2 11 3:15 North Madison Elementary School 110 25 7.0 2.90 145 4:40 7.9 16 5:00 Our Shepard Lutheran 110 25 3.0 1.80 101 400 9.4 19 4:15 Perry High School 110 25 15.1 16.80 54 3:10 5.2 11 3:20 Red Bird Elementary School 110 25 9.2 5.02 110 4:05 7.9 16 4:25 Riverside High School 110 25 6.1 3.10 119 4:15 4.7 10 4:25 St. Gabriel 110 25 0.6 7.80 5 2:20 2.4 5 2:25 Sterling Morton Elementary School 110 25 1.9 23.50 5 2:20 5.5 11 2:35 Summit Academy 110 25 6.1 6.30 59 3:15 9.4 19 3:35 Ledgemont High School 110 25 2.1 30.00 5 2:20 2.5 6 2:30 Maximum for EPZ: maximum: Average for EPZ: Average: Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes 36 Subarea 1 2 Travel along US-Highway 20 11.7 37 Subarea 2 10 Travel along US-Highway 20 10.1 38 Subarea 3 12 Travel along State Route 84 13.8 39 Subarea 4A 8 Travel along US-Highway 20 7.1 40 Subarea 4B 9 Travel Along State Route 531 through Geneva-on-the-Lake 2.6 41 Subarea 5 3 Travel along State Route 307 5.6 42 Subarea 6 8 Travel along State Route 86 6.2 43 Subarea 7A 23 Travel Along State Route 535, Liberty St and Painesville-Ravenna Rd 9.4 44 Subarea 7B 23 Travel along US-Highway 20 6.2-I-I-I Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates
-Good Weather 2 1 105 10.1 6.52 93 30 3:50 1 11.1 17 5 10 32 30 I5:2 3 1 105 13.8 6.41 129 30 4:25 7.7 11 5 10 36 30 6:00 1 105 7.1 30.50 14 30 2:30 11.1 17 5 10 31 30 4:05 2 125 2.6 40.00 4 30 2:40 12.9 19 5 10 23 30 4:10 5 1 105 5.6 31.60 11 30 2:30 16.7 25 5 10 33 30 4:10 6 1 105 6.2 39.50 9 30 225 14.5 22 5 10 31 30 4:05 1 105 9.4 8.40 67 30 3:25 7.7 11 5 10 26 30 4:4 2 125 6.2 6.78 55 30 3:30 8.1 12 5 10 23 30 4:55 Maximum ETE: Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Average E: Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates
-Rain 3 1 115 13.8 16.72 1123 40 4:40 7.7 13 5 10 37 40 16:2S 1 115 7.1 27.80 15 40 2:55 11.1 19 5 10 35 40 4.40 2 135 2.6 14.70 11 40 3:10 12.9 22 5 10 27 40 4:50 5 1 115 5.6 21.60 15 40 2:55 16.7 29 5 10 38 40 4:55 6 1 115 6.2 33.70 11 40 2:50 14.5 25 5 10 35 40 4:45 1 I 115 9.4 1 7.90 1 72 40 I 3:5 7.7 13 s 1 1O 29 40 5:25 7 7.7 40 29 5 I 10 4. *4 + + *4 4 4 4. I. .4 2 1 135 6.2 1 6.02 I 62 40 14:00 8.1 14 5 1 10 26 40 5:35 8.1 26 5 I 10 Maximum ETE: Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Average ETE: Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates
-Snow 3 1 125 13.8 1 5.60 1 147 50 1 5:25 7.7 is 5 10 43 50 1 7:30 1 125 7.1 21.10 20 50 3:20 11.1 22 5 10 40 50 5:2S 4 2 145 2.6 10.90 15 50 3:30 12.9 26 5 10 31 50 5:35 5 1 125 5.6 25.40 13 50 3:10 16.7 33 5 10 44 50 5:35 6 1 125 6.2 30.00 12 50 3:10 14.5 29 5 10 41 50 5:25 1 125 9.4 6.10 93 50 4:30 7.7 15 5 10 34 50 6:25 2 145 6.2 5.70 65 50 4:25 8.1 16 5 10 30 50 6:15 Maximum ETE: Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Average ETE: Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2}}

Latest revision as of 03:51, 13 October 2018

Kld TR-481, Rev. 2, Perry Nuclear Power Plant Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Part 2 of 6
ML13007A116
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Issue date: 10/31/2012
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Text

5 ESTIMATION OF TRIP GENERATION TIME Federal Government guidelines (see NUREG CR-7002) specify that the planner estimate the distributions of elapsed times associated with mobilization activities undertaken by the public to prepare for the evacuation trip. The elapsed time associated with each activity is represented as a statistical distribution reflecting differences between members of the public.The quantification of these activity-based distributions relies largely on the results of the telephone survey. We define the sum of these distributions of elapsed times as the Trip Generation Time Distribution.

5.1 Background

In general, an accident at a nuclear power plant is characterized by the following Emergency Classification Levels (see Appendix 1 of NUREG 0654 for details): 1. Unusual Event 2. Alert 3. Site Area Emergency 4. General Emergency At each level, the Federal guidelines specify a set of Actions to be undertaken by the licensee, and by state and local offsite authorities.

As a planning basis, we will adopt a conservative posture, in accordance with Section 1.2 of NUREG/CR-7002, that a rapidly escalating accident will be considered in calculating the Trip Generation Time. We will assume: 1. The Advisory to Evacuate will be announced coincident with the siren notification.

2. Mobilization of the general population will commence within 15 minutes after the siren notification.
3. ETE are measured relative to the Advisory to Evacuate.We emphasize that the adoption of this planning basis is not a representation that these events will occur within the indicated time frame. Rather, these assumptions are necessary in order to: 1. Establish a temporal framework for estimating the Trip Generation distribution in the format recommended in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863.
2. Identify temporal points of reference that uniquely define "Clear Time" and ETE.It is likely that a longer time will elapse between the various classes of an emergency.

For example, suppose one hour elapses from the siren alert to the Advisory to Evacuate.

In this case, it is reasonable to expect some degree of spontaneous evacuation by the public during this one-hour period. As a result, the population within the EPZ will be lower when the Advisory to Evacuate is announced, than at the time of the siren alert. In addition, many will engage in preparation activities to evacuate, in anticipation that an Advisory will be broadcast.

Thus, the time needed to complete the mobilization activities and the number of people remaining to evacuate the EPZ after the Advisory to Evacuate, will both be somewhat less than Perry Nuclear Power Plant 5-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 the estimates presented in this report. Consequently, the ETE presented in this report are higher than the actual evacuation time, if this hypothetical situation were to take place.The notification process consists of two events: 1. Transmitting information using the alert notification systems available within the EPZ (e.g., sirens, tone alerts, EAS broadcasts, loud speakers).

2. Receiving and correctly interpreting the information that is transmitted.

The population within the EPZ is dispersed over an area of approximately 160 square miles and are engaged in a wide variety of activities.

It must be anticipated that some time will elapse between the transmission and receipt of the information advising the public of an accident.The amount of elapsed time will vary from one individual to the next depending on where that person is, what that person is doing, and related factors. Furthermore, some persons who will be directly involved with the evacuation process may be outside the EPZ at the time the emergency is declared.

These people may be commuters, shoppers and other travelers who reside within the EPZ and who will return to join the other household members upon receiving notification of an emergency.

As indicated in Section 2.13 of NUREG/CR-6863, the estimated elapsed times for the receipt of notification can be expressed as a distribution reflecting the different notification times for different people within, and outside, the EPZ. By using time distributions, it is also possible to distinguish between different population groups and different day-of-week and time-of-day scenarios, so that accurate ETE may be computed.For example, people at home or at work within the EPZ will be notified by siren, and/or tone alert and/or radio (if available).

Those well outside the EPZ will be notified by telephone, radio, TV and word-of-mouth, with potentially longer time lags. Furthermore, the spatial distribution of the EPZ population will differ with time of day -families will be united in the evenings, but dispersed during the day. In this respect, weekends will differ from weekdays.As indicated in Section 4.1 of NUREG/CR-7002, the information required to compute trip generation times is typically obtained from a telephone survey of EPZ residents.

Such a survey was conducted in support of this ETE study. Appendix F presents the survey sampling plan, survey instrument, and raw survey results. It is important to note that the shape and duration of the evacuation trip mobilization distribution is important at sites where traffic congestion is not expected to cause the evacuation time estimate to extend in time well beyond the trip generation period. The remaining discussion will focus on the application of the trip generation data obtained from the telephone survey to the development of the ETE documented in this report.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 5-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2

5.2 Fundamental

Considerations The environment leading up to the time that people begin their evacuation trips consists of a sequence of events and activities.

Each event (other than the first) occurs at an instant in time and is the outcome of an activity.Activities are undertaken over a period of time. Activities may be in "series" (i.e., to undertake an activity implies the completion of all preceding events) or may be in parallel (two or more activities may take place over the same period of time). Activities conducted in series are functionally dependent on the completion of prior activities; activities conducted in parallel are functionally independent of one another. The relevant events associated with the public's preparation for evacuation are: Event Number 1 2 3 4 5 Event Description Notification Awareness of Situation Depart Work Arrive Home Depart on Evacuation Trip Associated with each sequence of events are one or more activities, as outlined below: Table 5-1. Event Sequence for Evacuation Activities Event~euence Ativity isrbto 142 Receive Notification 1 243 Prepare to Leave Work 2 2,3 --4 Travel Home 3 2,4 -*5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate 4 N/A Snow Clearance 5 These relationships are shown graphically in Figure 5-1.0 S An Event is a 'state' that exists at a point in time (e.g., depart work, arrive home)An Activity is a 'process' that takes place over some elapsed time (e.g., prepare to leave work, travel home)As such, a completed Activity changes the 'state' of an individual (e.g., the activity, 'travel home'changes the state from 'depart work' to 'arrive home'). Therefore, an Activity can be described as an 'Event Sequence';

the elapsed times to perform an event sequence vary from one person to the next and are described as statistical distributions on the following pages.An employee who lives outside the EPZ will follow sequence (c) of Figure 5-1. A household Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 within the EPZ that has one or more commuters at work, and will await their return before beginning the evacuation trip will follow the first sequence of Figure 5-1(a). A household within the EPZ that has no commuters at work, or that will not await the return of any commuters, will follow the second sequence of Figure 5-1(a), regardless of day of week or time of day.Households with no commuters on weekends or in the evening/night-time, will follow the applicable sequence in Figure 5-1(b). Transients will always follow one of the sequences of Figure 5-1(b). Some transients away from their residence could elect to evacuate immediately without returning to the residence, as indicated in the second sequence.It is seen from Figure 5-1, that the Trip Generation time (i.e., the total elapsed time from Event 1 to Event 5) depends on the scenario and will vary from one household to the next.Furthermore, Event 5 depends, in a complicated way, on the time distributions of all activities preceding that event. That is, to estimate the time distribution of Event 5, we must obtain estimates of the time distributions of all preceding events. For this study, we adopt the conservative posture that all activities will occur in sequence.In some cases, assuming certain events occur strictly sequential (for instance, commuter returning home before beginning preparation to leave, or removing snow only after the preparation to leave) can result in rather conservative (that is, longer) estimates of mobilization times. It is reasonable to expect that at least some parts of these events will overlap for many households, but that assumption is not made in this study.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 1 A11111 2 AftL 3 4 5 Residents 1 2 5 Households wait for Commuters' Residents Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Residents, Transients away from Residence Residents, Transients at Residence 1 2 4 5 Return to residence, then evacuate w Mw MW 1 2 5 Residents at home;transients evacuate directly[(b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 1 2 3, 5 (c) Emiployees who live outside the EPZ ACTIVITIES 1 -2 Receive Notification 2 -- 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 -4 Travel Home 2, 4 --0 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time 1. Notification

2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip'Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

Figure 5-1. Events and Activities Preceding the Evacuation Trip Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

5.3 Estimated

Time Distributions of Activities Preceding Event 5 The time distribution of an event is obtained by "summing" the time distributions of all prior contributing activities. (This "summing" process is quite different than an algebraic sum since it is performed on distributions

-not scalar numbers).Time Distribution No. 1. Notification Process: Activity 1 --* 2 It is assumed (based on the presence of sirens within the EPZ) that 87 percent of those within the EPZ will be aware of the accident within 30 minutes with the remainder notified within the following 15 minutes. The notification distribution is given below: Table 5-2. Time Distribution for Notifying the Public.lapse Tim Pecnto (Mintes Pouato Noife 0 0 5 7 10 13 15 27 20 47 25 66 30 87 35 92 40 97 45 100 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Distribution No. 2, Prepare to Leave Work: Activity 2 -- 3 It is reasonable to expect that the vast majority of business enterprises within the EPZ will elect to shut down following notification and most employees would leave work quickly. Commuters, who work outside the EPZ could, in all probability, also leave quickly since facilities outside the EPZ would remain open and other personnel would remain. Personnel or farmers responsible for equipment/livestock would require additional time to secure their facility.

The distribution of Activity 2 -- 3 shown in Table 5-3 reflects data obtained by the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2.Table 5-3. Time Distribution for Employees to Prepare to Leave Work 0 0 35 94 5 50 40 94 10 69 45 96 15 75 50 96 20 80 55 97 25 81 60 99 30 92 75 100 NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response.

That is, the sample was reduced in size to include only those households who responded to this question.

The underlying assumption is that the distribution of this activity for the "Don't know" responders, if the event takes place, would be the same as those responders who provided estimates.

Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Distribution No. 3, Travel Home: Activity 2, 3 -+ 4 These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-4.Table 5-4. Time Distribution for Commuters to Travel Home--------------------------------------

Elpe Time Pecn Elpe-im ecn 0 0 40 87 5 10 45 93 10 28 50 94 15 42 55 94 20 57 60 98 25 64 75 99 30 79 90 100 35 82 NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Distribution No. 4, Prepare to Leave Home: Activity 2,4 -* 5 These data are provided directly by those households which responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-5.Table 5-5. Time Distribution for Population to Prepare to Evacuate 0 0 15 19 30 61 45 69 60 86 75 91 90 94 105 94 120 99 135 100 NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Distribution No. 5, Snow Clearance Time Distribution Inclement weather scenarios involving snowfall must address the time lags associated with snow clearance.

It is assumed that snow equipment is mobilized and deployed during the snowfall to maintain passable roads. The general consensus is that the snow-plowing efforts are generally successful for all but the most extreme blizzards when the rate of snow accumulation exceeds that of snow clearance over a period of many hours.Consequently, it is reasonable to assume that the highway system will remain passable -albeit at a lower capacity -under the vast majority of snow conditions.

Nevertheless, for the vehicles to gain access to the highway system, it may be necessary for driveways and employee parking lots to be cleared to the extent needed to permit vehicles to gain access to the roadways.These clearance activities take time; this time must be incorporated into the trip generation time distributions.

These data are provided by those households which responded to the telephone survey. This distribution is plotted in Figure 5-2 and listed in Table 5-6.Table 5-6. Time Distribution for Population to Clear 6"-8" of Snow fl ftIL¶~eE~III CumuEE latg1ivf~teLf(0 44 15 56 30 79 45 85 60 92 75 95 90 96 105 97 120 99 135 100 NOTE: The survey data was normalized to distribute the "Don't know" response Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Mobilization Activities Notification

-Prepare to Leave Work -Travel Home -Prepare Home -Time to Clear Snow 1UU0 C.2 4-0 0 CL E 0 U C 0.0L 80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 120 150 Elapsed Time from Start of Mobilization Activity (min)180 210 Figure 5-2. Evacuation Mobilization Activities Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

5.4 Calculation

of Trip Generation Time Distribution The time distributions for each of the mobilization activities presented herein must be combined to form the appropriate Trip Generation Distributions.

As discussed above, this study assumes that the stated events take place in sequence such that all preceding events must be completed before the current event can occur. For example, if a household awaits the return of a commuter, the work-to-home trip (Activity 3 -* 4) must precede Activity 4 -- 5.To calculate the time distribution of an event that is dependent on two sequential activities, it is necessary to "sum" the distributions associated with these prior activities.

The distribution summing algorithm is applied repeatedly as shown to form the required distribution.

As an outcome of this procedure, new time distributions are formed; we assign "letter" designations to these intermediate distributions to describe the procedure.

Table 5-7 presents the summing procedure to arrive at each designated distribution.

Table 5-7. Mapping Distributions to Events Apply " And T Distribution Obtaind Event Dei Distributions 1 and 2 Distribution A Event 3 Distributions A and 3 Distribution B Event 4 Distributions B and 4 Distribution C Event 5 Distributions 1 and 4 Distribution D Event 5 Distributions C and 5 Distribution E Event 5 Distribuitions' D and 5 ~ Distribuition F Eve~nt 5 _______ ____Table 5-8 presents a description of each of the final trip generation distributions achieved after the summing process is completed.

Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 5-8. Description of the Distributions Dstrbto Description Time distribution of commuters departing place of work (Event 3). Also applies A to employees who work within the EPZ who live outside, and to Transients within the EPZ.B Time distribution of commuters arriving home (Event 4).Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving home to begin the evacuation trip (Event 5).D Time distribution of residents without commuters returning home, leaving home to begin the evacuation trip (Event 5).E Time distribution of residents with commuters who return home, leaving home to begin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).Time distribution of residents with no commuters returning home, leaving to begin the evacuation trip, after snow clearance activities (Event 5).5.4.1 Statistical Outliers As already mentioned, some portion of the survey respondents answer "don't know" to some questions or choose to not respond to a question.

The mobilization activity distributions are based upon actual responses.

But, it is the nature of surveys that a few numeric responses are inconsistent with the overall pattern of results. An example would be a case in which for 540 responses, almost all of them estimate less than two hours for a given answer, but 3 say "four hours" and 4 say "six or more hours".These "outliers" must be considered:

are they valid responses, or so atypical that they should be dropped from the sample?In assessing outliers, there are three alternates to consider: 1) Some responses with very long times may be valid, but reflect the reality that the respondent really needs to be classified in a different population subgroup, based upon special needs;2) Other responses may be unrealistic (6 hours6.944444e-5 days <br />0.00167 hours <br />9.920635e-6 weeks <br />2.283e-6 months <br /> to return home from commuting distance, or 2 days to prepare the home for departure);

3) Some high values are representative and plausible, and one must not cut them as part of the consideration of outliers.The issue of course is how to make the decision that a given response or set of responses are to be considered "outliers" for the component mobilization activities, using a method that objectively quantifies the process.There is considerable statistical literature on the identification and treatment of outliers singly or in groups, much of which assumes the data is normally distributed and some of which uses non-Perry Nuclear Power Plant 5-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 parametric methods to avoid that assumption.

The literature cites that limited work has been done directly on outliers in sample survey responses.

In establishing the overall mobilization time/trip generation distributions, the following principles are used: 1) It is recognized that the overall trip generation distributions are conservative estimates, because they assume a household will do the mobilization activities sequentially, with no overlap of activities;

2) The individual mobilization activities (prepare to leave work, travel home, prepare home, clear snow) are reviewed for outliers, and then the overall trip generation distributions are created (see Figure 5-1, Table 5-7, Table 5-8);3) Outliers can be eliminated either because the response reflects a special population (e.g., special needs, transit dependent) or lack of realism, because the purpose is to estimate trip generation patterns for personal vehicles;4) To eliminate outliers, a) the mean and standard deviation of the specific activity are estimated from the responses, b) the median of the same data is estimated, with its position relative to the mean noted, c) the histogram of the data is inspected, and d) all values greater than 3.5 standard deviations are flagged for attention, taking special note of whether there are gaps (categories with zero entries) in the histogram display.In general, only flagged values more than 4 standard deviations from the mean are allowed to be considered outliers, with gaps in the histogram expected.When flagged values are classified as outliers and dropped, steps "a" to "d" are repeated.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 5-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2
5) As a practical matter, even with outliers eliminated by the above, the resultant histogram, viewed as a cumulative distribution, is not a normal distribution.

A typical situation that results is shown below in Figure 5-3.100.0%90.0%80.0%70.0%0o.o r 60.0%C1 50.0%2? 40.0%30.0%E u 20.0%10.0%0.0% ........V! V! L Ili Vi It! If! If! L IlA LA LA LA LA LA LA.-i ri r4 r4c m ;r -1 LA Ln D 00 a) ~-i v-4 Center of Interval (minutes)-Cumulative Data --Cumulative Normal Figure 5-3. Comparison of Data Distribution and Normal Distribution

6) In particular, the cumulative distribution differs from the normal distribution in two key aspects, both very important in loading a network to estimate evacuation times: i Most of the real data is to the left of the "normal" curve above, indicating that the network loads faster for the first 80-85% of the vehicles, potentially causing more (and earlier) congestion than otherwise modeled;The last 10-15% of the real data "tails off" slower than the comparable "normal" curve, indicating that there is significant traffic still loading at later times.Because these two features are important to preserve, it is the histogram of the data that is used to describe the mobilization activities, not a "normal" curve fit to the data. One could consider other distributions, but using the shape of the actual data curve is unambiguous and preserves these important features;7) With the mobilization activities each modeled according to Steps 1-6, including preserving the features cited in Step 6, the overall (or total) mobilization times are constructed.

This is done by using the data sets and distributions under different scenarios (e.g., commuter returning, no commuter returning, no snow or snow in each). In general, these are additive, using Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 weighting based upon the probability distributions of each element; Figure 5-4 presents the combined trip generation distributions designated A, C, D, E and F. These distributions are presented on the same time scale. (As discussed earlier, the use of strictly additive activities is a conservative approach, because it makes all activities sequential

-preparation for departure follows the return of the commuter; snow clearance follows the preparation for departure, and so forth. In practice, it is reasonable that some of these activities are done in parallel, at least to some extent -for instance, preparation to depart begins by a household member at home while the commuter is still on the road.)The mobilization distributions that result are used in their tabular/graphical form as direct inputs to later computations that lead to the ETE.The DYNEV II simulation model is designed to accept varying rates of vehicle trip generation for each origin centroid, expressed in the form of histograms.

These histograms, which represent Distributions A, C, D, E and F, properly displaced with respect to one another, are tabulated in Table 5-9 (Distribution B, Arrive Home, omitted for clarity).The final time period (12) is 600 minutes long. This time period is added to allow the analysis network to clear, in the event congestion persists beyond the trip generation period. Note that there are no trips generated during this final time period.5-16 KLD Engineering, p.c.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

5.4.2 Staged

Evacuation Trip Generation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. Subareas comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately
2. Subareas comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the two mile region is cleared 3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, sheltered people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation
4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region are advised to begin evacuating when approximately 90% of those originally within the 2 mile region evacuate across the 2 mile region boundary 5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%Assumptions
1. The EPZ population in subareas beyond 5 miles will react as does the population in the 2 to 5 mile region; that is they will first shelter, then evacuate after the 9 0 th percentile ETE for the 2 mile region 2. The population in the shadow region beyond the EPZ boundary, extending to approximately 15 miles radially from the plant, will react as they do for all non-staged evacuation scenarios.

That is 20% of these households will elect to evacuate with no shelter delay.3. The transient population will not be expected to stage their evacuation because of the limited sheltering options available to people who may be at parks, on a beach, or other venues. Also, notifying the transient population of a staged evacuation would prove difficult.

4. Employees will also be assumed to evacuate without first sheltering.

Procedure 1. Trip generation for population groups in the 2 mile region will be as computed based upon the results of the telephone survey and analysis.2. Trip generation for the population subject to staged evacuation will be formulated as follows: a. Identify the 9 0 th percentile evacuation time for the subareas comprising the two mile region. This value, Tscen*, obtained from simulation results is scenario-specific.

It will become the time at which the region being sheltered will be told to evacuate for each scenario.b. The resultant trip generation curves for staging are then formed as follows: i. The non-shelter trip generation curve is followed until a maximum of 20%of the total trips are generated (to account for shelter non-compliance).

Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 ii. No additional trips are generated until time Tscen*iii. Following time Tscen*, the balance of trips are generated:

1. by stepping up and then following the non-shelter trip generation curve (if Tscen* is < max trip generation time) or 2. by stepping up to 100% (if Tscen* is > max trip generation time)c. Note: This procedure implies that there may be different staged trip generation distributions for different scenarios.

NUREG/CR-7002 uses the statement"approximately 90 percent" as the time to end staging and begin evacuating.

The value of Tscen* is 2:10 for non-snow scenarios and 2:20 for snow scenarios.

3. Staged trip generation distributions are created for the following population groups: a. Residents with returning commuters b. Residents without returning commuters c. Residents with returning commuters and snow conditions
d. Residents without returning commuters and snow conditions Figure 5-5 presents the staged trip generation distributions for both residents with and without returning commuters; the 9 0 th percentile two-mile evacuation time is 130 minutes and 140 minutes for snow scenarios.

At the 90th percentile evacuation time, approximately 15-18% of the population advised to shelter has nevertheless departed the area. These people do not comply with the shelter advisory.

Also included on the plot are the trip generation distributions for these groups as applied to the regions advised to evacuate immediately.

Since the 9 0 th percentile evacuation time occurs before the end of the trip generation period, after the sheltered region is advised to evacuate, the shelter trip generation distribution rises to meet the balance of the non-staged trip generation distribution.

Following time Tscen*, the balance of staged evacuation trips that are ready to depart are released within 15 minutes. After Tscen*+15, the remainder of evacuation trips are generated in accordance with the unstaged trip generation distribution.

Table 5-10 provides the trip generation for staged evacuation.

5.4.3 Trip Generation for Waterways and Recreational Areas Section E.4.4 of the Ashtabula County Radiological Emergency Response Plan (January 2011)indicates that campgrounds/recreation areas will be notified by internal procedures.

Boaters will be notified by the U.S. Coast Guard, assisted by the Ohio Department of Natural Resources (ODNR) and Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT). The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will also broadcast notification via weather radios. Section E.4.6 of the plan indicates that 100% of the population will be notified in 45 minutes. The same text appears in Sections E.4.4 and E.4.6 of the Geauga and Lake County plans.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 5-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 As indicated in Table 5-2, this study assumes 100% notification in 45 minutes. Table 5-9 indicates that all transients will have mobilized within 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br />. It is assumed that this 2 hour2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> timeframe is sufficient time for boaters, campers, and other transients to return to their vehicles and begin their evacuation trip.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

-Em ployees/Tra nsients-Res with Comm and Snow Mobilization Activities

-Residents with Commuters

-Residents with no Commuters-Res no Comm with Snow 100 80 C 4'CL 0 60 40 20 0 0 60 120 180 240 Elapsed Time from Evacuating Advisory (min)300 360 420 Figure 5-4. Comparison of Trip Generation Distributions Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 5-9. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Unstaged Evacuation 1 15 8%8%0%1%0%1%2 15 36% 36% 0% 11% 0% 5%3 15 34% 34% 3% 25% 2% 14%4 15 14% 14% 11% 25% 5% 18%5 15 5% 5% 17% 15% 1% 16%6 15 2% 2% 18% 1% 14% 14%7 30 1% 1% 29% 7% 28% 16%8 30 0% 0% 13% 5% 19% 9%9 30 0% 0% 6% 1% 12% 5%10 30 0% 0% 2% 0% 6% 1%11 60 0% 0% 1% 0% 4% 1%12 600 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%Notes:* Shadow vehicles are loaded onto the analysis network (Figure 1-2) using Distributions C and E for good weather and snow, respectively.

  • Special event vehicles are loaded using Distribution A.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 j Table 5-10. Trip Generation Histograms for the EPZ Population for Staged Evacuation Peren gNlIof Toi~tal TipsUI~l Generated W'ithl iln Ind1[~icated Tmel Period*J[Residents Reidnt Reidnt wit Witou Reiet0itihu Tim Duato Comtr Comtr Comtr Sno CommutersSno 1 15 0%0%0%0%2 15 0% 2% 0% 1%3 15 1% 5% 0% 3%4 15 2% 5% 1% 4%5 15 3% 3% 2% 3%6 15 4% 2% 3% 3%7 30 6% 2% 6% 3%8 30 75% 80% 47% 52%9 30 6% 1% 31% 29%10 30 2% 0% 6% 1%11 60 1% 0% 4% 1%12 600 0% 0% 0% 0%*Trip Generation for Employees and Transients (see Table 5-9) is the same for Un-staged and Staged Evacuation.

Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 I Staged and Un-staged Evacuation Trip Generation-Employees

/ Transients

-Residents with no Commuters-Res no Comm with Snow-Staged Residents with no Commuters-Residents with Commuters-Res with Comm and Snow-Staged Residents with Commuters-Staged Residents with Commuters (Snow)100 80 4E-0.60 C 0 CK 4 0 0 0 20 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 390 420 Elapsed Time from Evacuating Advisory (min)Figure 5-5. Comparison of Staged and Un-staged Trip Generation Distributions in the 2 to 5 Mile Region 5-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 5-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 6 DEMAND ESTIMATION FOR EVACUATION SCENARIOS An evacuation "case" defines a combination of evacuation region and evacuation scenario.

The definitions of "region" and "scenario" are as follows: Region A grouping of contiguous evacuating subareas that forms either a "keyhole" sector-based area, or a circular area within the EPZ, that must be evacuated in response to a radiological emergency.

Scenario A combination of circumstances, including time of day, day of week, season, and weather conditions.

Scenarios define the number of people in each of the affected population groups and their respective mobilization time distributions.

A total of 20 regions were defined which encompass all the groupings of subareas considered.

These regions are defined in Table 6-1. The subarea configurations are identified in Figure 6-1.Each keyhole sector-based area consists of a central circle centered at the power plant, and three adjoining sectors, each with a central angle of 22.5 degrees, as per NUREG/CR-7002 guidance.

The central sector coincides with the wind direction.

These sectors extend to 5 miles from the plant (regions R04 and R05) or to the EPZ boundary (regions R06 through R17).Regions R01, R02 and R03 represent evacuations of circular areas with radii of 2, 5 and 10 miles, respectively.

Regions R18 through R20 are identical to regions R04, R02 and R05, respectively; however, those subareas between 2 miles and 5 miles are staged until 90% of the 2-mile region (region R01) has evacuated.

A total of 14 scenarios were evaluated for all regions. Thus, there are a total of 20x14=280 evacuation cases. Table 6-2 is a description of all scenarios.

Each combination of region and scenario implies a specific population to be evacuated.

Table 6-3 presents the estimated percentage of each population group evacuating for each scenario.Table 6-4 presents the vehicle counts for each scenario for an evacuation of region R03 -the entire EPZ.The vehicle estimates presented in Section 3 are peak values. These peak values are adjusted depending on the scenario and region being considered, using scenario and region specific percentages; the scenario percentages are presented in Table 6-3, while the regional percentages are provided in Table H-1. The percentages presented in Table 6-3 were determined as follows: The number of residents with commuters during the week (when workforce is at its peak) is equal to the product of 63% (the number of households with at least one commuter) and 40%(the number of households with a commuter that would await the return of the commuter prior to evacuating).

See assumption 3 in Section 2.3. It is estimated for weekend and evening scenarios that 10% of those households with commuters will have a commuter at work during those times.Employment is estimated to be at its peak during the winter, midweek, midday scenarios.

Employment is reduced slightly (96%) for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.

This is based on Perry Nuclear Power Plant 6-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 the estimation that 50% of the employees commuting into the EPZ will be on vacation for a week during the approximate 12 weeks of summer. It is further estimated that those taking vacation will be uniformly dispersed throughout the summer with approximately 4% of employees vacationing each week. Finally, it is estimated that only 10% of the employees are working in the evenings and during the weekends.Transient activity is estimated to be at its peak during summer weekends and less (50%) during the week. As shown in Appendix E, there is a significant amount of lodging and campgrounds offering overnight accommodations in the EPZ; thus, transient activity is estimated to be high during evening hours -75% for summer and 10% for winter. Transient activity on winter weekends is estimated to be 10%.As noted in the shadow footnote to Table 6-3, the shadow percentages are computed using a base of 20% (see assumption 5 in Section 2.2); to include the employees within the shadow region, all of whom are expected to evacuate, the voluntary evacuation is multiplied by a scenario-specific proportion of employees to permanent residents in the shadow region. For example, using the values provided in Table 6-4 for scenario 1, the shadow percentage is computed as follows: ( 963 20% x (1 + '3= 20.32%k 15,104 + 44,414 One special event -Fairport Harbor Fireworks Show -was considered as scenario 13. Thus, the special event traffic is 100% evacuated for scenario 13, and 0% for all other scenarios.

It is estimated that summer school enrollment is approximately 10% of enrollment during the regular school year for summer, midweek, midday scenarios.

School is not in session during weekends and evening, thus no buses for school children are needed under those circumstances.

As discussed in Section 7, schools are assumed to be in session during the winter season, midweek, midday and 100% of buses will be needed under those circumstances.

Transit buses for the transit-dependent population are set to 100% for all scenarios as it is assumed that the transit-dependent population is present in the EPZ for all scenarios.

External traffic is estimated to be reduced by 60% during evening scenarios and is 100% for all other scenarios.

Perry Nuclear Power Plant 6-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Table 6-1. Description of Evacuation Regions I Subarea Region Description Lake RO 2-Mile Ring R02 5-Mile Ring R03 Full EPZ Region Wind Direction From 3 4 5 6 7 Lake R04 SW, WSW, W WNW, NW, NNW Refer to Region R02 ROS N, NNE, NE, ENE, E ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW Refer to Region R01 R06 N R07 NNE, NE, ENE R08 E ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW Refer to Region R01 R09 SW, WSW RIO W Rll WNW R12 NW R13 NNW R14 N R15 NNE, NE R16 ENE, E ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW Refer to Region R02 R17 SW, WSW 0 1 FA W, WNW Refer to Region R1l NW Refer to Region R12 6-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 6-1. PNPP EPZ Subareas Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 6-2. Evacuation Scenario Definitions 1 Summer Midweek Midday Good None 2 Summer Midweek Midday Rain None 3 Summer Weekend Midday Good None 4 Summer Weekend Midday Rain None Midweek, 5 Summer Weekend Evening Good None 6 Winter Midweek Midday Good None 7 Winter Midweek Midday Rain None 8 Winter Midweek Midday Snow None 9 Winter Weekend Midday Good None 10 Winter Weekend Midday Rain None 11 Winter Weekend Midday Snow None Midweek, 12 Winter Weekend Evening Good None Fairport Harbor 13 Summer Weekend Evening Good Fireworks Show Roadway Impact -Lane 14 Summer Midweek Midday Good Closure on 1-90 WB I Winter assumes that school is in session (also applies to spring and autumn). Summer assumes that school is not in session.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 6-3. Percent of Population Groups Evacuating for Various Scenarios 1 25% 75% 96% 50% 20.32% 0% 10% 100% 100%2 25% 75% 96% 50% 20.32% 0% 10% 100% 100%3 10% 90% 10% 100% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 100%4 10% 90% 10% 100% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 100%5 10% 90% 10% 75% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 40%6 25% 75% 100% 5% 20.34% 0% 100% 100% 100%7 25% 75% 100% 5% 20.34% 0% 100% 100% 100%8 25% 75% 100% 5% 20.34% 0% 100% 100% 100%9 10% 90% 10% 10% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 100%10 10% 90% 10% 10% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 100%11 10% 90% 10% 10% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 100%12 10% 90% 10% 10% 20.03% 0% 0% 100% 40%13 10% 90% 10% 75% 20.03% 100% 0% 100% 40%14 25% 75% 96% 50% 20.32% 0% 10% 100% 100%Resident Households with Commuters

....... Households of EPZ residents who await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Resident Households with No Commuters

..Households of EPZ residents who do not have commuters or will not await the return of commuters prior to beginning the evacuation trip.Employees

..................................................

EPZ employees who live outside the EPZ Transients

..................................................

People who are in the EPZ at the time of an accident for recreational or other (non-employment) purposes.Shadow ......................................................

Residents and employees in the shadow region (outside of the EPZ) who will spontaneously decide to relocate during the evacuation.

The basis for the values shown is a 20% relocation of shadow residents along with a proportional percentage of shadow employees.

Special Events ............................................

Additional vehicles in the EPZ due to the identified special events.School and Transit Buses ............................

Vehicle-equivalents present on the road during evacuation servicing schools and transit-dependent people (1 bus is equivalent to 2 passenger vehicles).

External Through Traffic .............................

Traffic on interstates/freeways and major arterial roads at the start of the evacuation.

This traffic is stopped by access control approximately 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the evacuation begins.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 6-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Table 6-4. Vehicle Estimates by Scenario 1 15,104 44,414 963 3,545 6,781 68 196 11,210 82,281 2 15,104 44,414 963 3,545 6,781 -68 196 11,210 82,281 3 1,510 58,008 100 7,090 6,685 --196 11,210 84,799 4 1,510 58,008 100 7,090 6,685 -196 11,210 84,799 5 1,510 58,008 100 5,318 6,685 --196 4,484 76,301 6 15,104 44,414 1,003 355 6,786 -676 196 11,210 79,744 7 15,104 44,414 1,003 355 6,786 -676 196 11,210 79,744 8 15,104 44,414 1,003 355 6,786 -676 196 11,210 79,744 9 1,510 58,008 100 709 6,685 --196 11,210 78,418 10 1,510 58,008 100 709 6,685 --196 11,210 78,418 11 1,510 58,008 100 709 6,685 --196 11,210 78,418 12 1,510 58,008 100 709 6,685 --196 4,484 71,692 13 1,510 58,008 100 5,318 6,685 2,551 -196 4,484 78,852 14 15,104 44,414 963 3,545 6,781 -68 196 11,210 82,281 Note: Vehicle estimates are for an evacuation of the entire EPZ (region R03)Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 6-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 7 GENERAL POPULATION EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES (ETE)This section presents the current ETE results of the computer analyses using the DYNEV II System described in Appendices B, C and D. These results cover 20 regions within the PNPP EPZ and the 14 evacuation scenarios discussed in Section 6.The ETE for all evacuation cases are presented in Table 7-1 and Table 7-2. These tables present the estimated times to clear the indicated population percentages from the evacuation regions for all evacuation scenarios.

The ETE of the 2-mile region in both staged and un-staged regions are presented in Table 7-3 and Table 7-4. Table 7-5 defines the evacuation regions considered.

The tabulated values of ETE are obtained from the DYNEV II System outputs which are generated at 5-minute intervals.

7.1 Voluntary

Evacuation and Shadow Evacuation"Voluntary evacuees" are people within the EPZ in subareas for which an Advisory to Evacuate has not been issued, yet who elect to evacuate. "Shadow evacuation" is the voluntary outward movement of some people from the Shadow Region (outside the EPZ) for whom no protective action recommendation has been issued. Both voluntary and shadow evacuations are assumed to take place over the same time frame as the evacuation from within the impacted evacuation region.The ETE for the PNPP EPZ addresses the issue of voluntary evacuees in the manner shown in Figure 7-1. Within the EPZ, 20 percent of people located in subareas outside of the evacuation region who are not advised to evacuate, are assumed to elect to evacuate.

Similarly, it is assumed that 20 percent of those people in the shadow region will choose to leave the area.Figure 7-2 presents the area identified as the Shadow Region. This region extends radially from the plant to cover a region between the EPZ boundary and approximately 15 miles. The population and number of evacuating vehicles in the Shadow Region were estimated using the same methodology that was used for permanent residents within the EPZ (see Section 3.1). As discussed in Section 3.2, it is estimated that a total of 60,979 people reside in the Shadow Region; 20 percent of them would evacuate.

See Table 6-4 for the number of evacuating vehicles from the Shadow Region.Traffic generated within this Shadow Region, traveling away from the PNPP location, has a potential for impeding evacuating vehicles from within the evacuation region. All ETE calculations include this shadow traffic movement.7.2 Staged Evacuation As defined in NUREG/CR-7002, staged evacuation consists of the following:

1. Subareas comprising the 2 mile region are advised to evacuate immediately.
2. Subareas comprising regions extending from 2 to 5 miles downwind are advised to shelter in-place while the two mile region is cleared.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2
3. As vehicles evacuate the 2 mile region, people from 2 to 5 miles downwind continue preparation for evacuation while they shelter.4. The population sheltering in the 2 to 5 mile region is advised to evacuate when approximately 90% of the 2 mile region evacuating traffic crosses the 2 mile region boundary.5. Non-compliance with the shelter recommendation is the same as the shadow evacuation percentage of 20%.See Section 5.4.2 for additional information on staged evacuation.

7.3 Patterns

of Traffic Congestion during Evacuation Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8 illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for the case when the entire EPZ (region R03) is advised to evacuate during the summer, midweek, midday period under good weather conditions (scenario 1).Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F. LOS F is defined as follows (HCM 2010, page 5-5): The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demand exceeds capacity) or have exceeded a specified service measure value, or combination of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory.

However, particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Several measures are available to describe individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOS F condition:

  • Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceeded during the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);-Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, 1 h, 3 h); and o Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions.

These include measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specific intersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.

All highway "links" which experience LOS F are delineated in these Figures by a thick red line; all others are lightly indicated.

Congestion develops rapidly around concentrations of population and traffic bottlenecks.

Figure 7-3 displays the developing congestion within the population centers of Painesville to the west of PNPP, and Geneva to the east, just 30 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE). Note that Interstate-90 (1-90), which is servicing the external-external trips and the entering evacuating trips, is displaying heavy traffic demand (LOS D and E) on those sections exiting the EPZ to the west.At one hour after the ATE, Figure 7-4 displays fully-developed congestion within these population centers and along the exiting sections along 1-90. The congestion on the west is now Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 involving shadow evacuees from the Shadow Region in the Mentor community.

The confluence of the congestion in the communities of Painesville and Mentor is clearly impacting the rate of travel out of the western boundary of the EPZ.At 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br />, as shown in Figure 7-5, the intense congestion on the west has "encouraged" many evacuees in that area to seek alternative routes to the south, resulting in new congestion in the area of Chardon. Likewise, the increased congestion on the east has diverted traffic southward to access 1-90 eastbound; unfortunately, 1-90 is still servicing external-external trips at this time and is displaying moderate congestion, limiting the service available to vehicles from within the EPZ. Interestingly, some vehicles on the east have migrated north to the coastal route (through Geneva-on-the-Lake) to travel east to Ashtabula.

Congested conditions remain in the Painesville/Mentor area on the west at 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> after the ATE (Figure 7-6), and in the Geneva area on the east. However, this congestion has been somewhat reduced within the past hour, as can be seen by comparing Figure 7-6 with Figure 7-5. With the external-external trips diverted outside the EPZ, 1-90 is now free of congestion.

Over the next half-hour, at time 3:30, the 5-mile area is cleared of congestion as shown in Figure 7-7. LOS F conditions remain in subarea 4 (Geneva).

Congestion has cleared in the Painesville/Mentor area. All other areas are free of congested conditions.

Finally, Figure 7-8 displays an EPZ that is essentially clear of evacuating traffic, at 4:30 after the ATE, which is at the completion of the trip-generation (mobilization) time. The lone remnant of congestion is in the Shadow Region to the east, at the narrowing of Route 20 from 2 outbound lanes to 1. Traffic congestion within the EPZ clears at 4:20 after the ATE.7.4 Evacuation Rates Evacuation is a continuous process, as implied by Figure 7-9 through Figure 7-22. These figures indicate the rate at which traffic flows out of the indicated areas for the case of an evacuation of the full EPZ (region R03) under the indicated conditions.

One figure is presented for each scenario considered.

As indicated in Figure 7-9, there is typically a long "tail" to these distributions.

Vehicles begin to evacuate an area slowly at first, as people respond to the ATE at different rates. Then traffic demand builds rapidly (slopes of curves increase).

When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates somewhat below capacity until some evacuation routes have cleared. As more routes clear, the aggregate rate of egress slows since many vehicles have already left the EPZ. Towards the end of the process, relatively few evacuation routes service the remaining demand.This decline in aggregate flow rate, towards the end of the process, is characterized by these curves flattening and gradually becoming horizontal.

Ideally, it would be desirable to fully saturate all evacuation routes equally so that all will service traffic near capacity levels and all will clear at the same time. For this ideal situation, all curves would retain the same slope until the end -thus minimizing evacuation time. In reality, this ideal is generally unattainable Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 reflecting the spatial variation in population density, mobilization rates and in highway capacity over the EPZ.7.5 Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) Results Table 7-1 through Table 7-2 present the ETE values for all 20 evacuation regions and all 14 evacuation scenarios.

Table 7-3 through Table 7-4 present the ETE values for 2-mile region for both staged and un-staged 5-Mile regions. They are organized as follows: Tal-Cotet ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-1 population within a region, to evacuate from that region. All scenarios are considered, as well as staged evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-2 population within a region, to evacuate from that region. All scenarios are considered, as well as staged evacuation scenarios.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 90 percent of the 7-3 population within the 2-mile region, to evacuate from that region with both concurrent and staged evacuations.

ETE represents the elapsed time required for 100 percent of the 7-4 population within the 2-mile region, to evacuate from that region with both concurrent and staged evacuations.

The animation snapshots described above reflect the ETE statistics for the concurrent (un-staged) evacuation scenarios and regions, which are displayed in Figure 7-3 through Figure 7-8.Most of the congestion was located in subareas 4 and 7 which are beyond the 5-mile area; this is reflected in the ETE statistics:

  • The 90-percentile ETE for regions RO1 and R02 (2- and 5-mile areas) are comparable and generally range between 2:00 and 2:10 (slightly higher for rain and snow)." The 90-percentile ETE for regions R03 (full EPZ) and R06 -R13 (which extend to the EPZ boundary) are approximately an hour longer.The 1 0 0 th percentile ETE for all regions and for all scenarios are the same values as the mobilization times. This fact implies that the congestion within the EPZ dissipates prior to the end of mobilization, as was displayed in Figure 7-8.Comparison of scenarios 5 and 13 in Table 7-1 indicates that the Special Event -fireworks in Fairport Harbor -has little impact on the ETE for the 9 0 th percentile.

As discussed in Section 6, the external traffic is reduced by 60% for these scenarios as they are evening scenarios.

The additional 2,500 vehicles present for the special event increase congestion on the local roads in Painesville and on the ramps to 1-90. However, much of the capacity along 1-90 is available Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 because of the reduced external traffic. As a result, the 2- and 5-mile regions are not affected, while the ETE for the entire EPZ (region R03) increases by 10 minutes.Comparison of scenarios 1 and 14 in Table 7-1 indicates that the roadway closure -one lane westbound on 1-90 from the interchange with County Highway 227 (Exit 205) to the interchange with State Highway 306 (Exit 193) -does have a material impact on 9 0 th percentile ETE for keyhole regions with wind from the north and east (regions R06 through R08, R12 through R17), with up to 20 minute increases in ETE. Wind from the north and east carries the plume over Painesville, which routes traffic onto 1-90 westbound.

With a lane closed on 1-90 westbound in the Painesville, the capacity of 1-90 is reduced to half, increasing congestion and prolonging ETE. Regions R09 through R11 involve evacuation predominately eastbound along 1-90, US-20 and State Highway 84, and are not materially impacted by the decreased capacity westbound along 1-90.The results of the roadway impact scenario indicate that events such as adverse weather or traffic accidents which close a lane on 1-90, could impact ETE. State and local police could consider traffic management tactics such as using the shoulder of the roadway as a travel lane or re-routing of traffic along other evacuation routes to avoid overwhelming 1-90. All efforts should be made to remove the blockage on 1-90, particularly within the first 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> of the evacuation.

7.6 Staged

Evacuation Results Table 7-3 and Table 7-4 present a comparison of the ETE compiled for the concurrent (un-staged) and staged evacuation studies. Note, regions R18 through R20 are the same geographic areas as regions R04, R02 and R05, respectively.

To determine whether the staged evacuation strategy is worthy of consideration, one must show that the ETE for the 2 Mile region can be reduced without significantly affecting the region between 2 miles and 5 miles. In all cases, as shown in these tables, the ETE for the 2 mile region is unchanged when a staged evacuation is implemented.

The reason for this is that the congestion within the 5-mile area does not extend upstream to the extent that it penetrates to within 2 miles of the PNPP. Consequently, the impedance, due to this congestion within the S-mile area, to evacuees from within the 2-mile area is not sufficient to materially influence the 90th percentile ETE for the 2-mile area. Therefore, staging the evacuation to sharply reduce congestion within the 5-mile area, provides no benefits to evacuees from within the 2 mile region and unnecessarily delays the evacuation of those beyond 2 miles.While failing to provide assistance to evacuees from within 2 miles of the PNPP, staging produces a negative impact on the ETE for those evacuating from within the 5-mile area. A comparison of ETE between regions R18 and R04; R19 and R02; and R20 and RO5; reveals that staging retards the 9 0 th percentile evacuation time for those in the 2 to 5-mile area by up to 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> (see Table 7-1). This extending of ETE is due to the delay in beginning the evacuation trip, experienced by those who shelter, plus the effect of the trip-generation "spike" (significant Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 volume of traffic beginning the evacuation trip at the same time) that follows their eventual ATE, in creating congestion within the EPZ area beyond 2 miles.In summary, the staged evacuation option provides no benefits and adversely impacts many evacuees located beyond 2 miles from the PNPP.7.7 Guidance on Using ETE Tables The user first determines the percentile of population for which the ETE is sought (The NRC guidance calls for the 9 0 th percentile).

The applicable value of ETE within the chosen Table may then be identified using the following procedure:

1. Identify the applicable scenario: " Season" Summer" Winter (also Autumn and Spring)" Day of Week" Midweek" Weekend" Time of Day" Midday" Evening" Weather Condition" Good Weather" Rain" Snow* Special Event" Fairport Harbor Fireworks Show" Road Closure (A lane on 1-90 WB is closed)" Evacuation Staging" No, Staged Evacuation is not considered" Yes, Staged Evacuation is considered While these scenarios are designed, in aggregate, to represent conditions throughout the year, some further clarification is warranted:

The conditions of a summer evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the tables. For these conditions, scenarios (2) and (4) apply.The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and rain are not explicitly identified in the tables. For these conditions, scenarios (7) and (10) for rain apply.The conditions of a winter evening (either midweek or weekend) and snow are not explicitly identified in the tables. For these conditions, scenarios (8) and (11) for snow apply.The seasons are defined as follows: N Summer assumes that public schools are not in session.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2

  • Winter (includes Spring and Autumn) considers that public schools are in session.* Time of Day: Midday implies the time over which most commuters are at work or are travelling to/from work.2. With the desired percentile ETE and scenario identified, now identify the evacuation region:* Determine the projected azimuth direction of the plume (coincident with the wind direction).

This direction is expressed in terms of compass orientation:

from N, NNE, NE, ...* Determine the distance that the evacuation region will extend from the nuclear power plant. The applicable distances and their associated candidate regions are given below: 0 2 Miles (region R01)0 To 5 Miles (regions R02, R04 and R05)E to EPZ Boundary (regions R03, R06 through R17)* Enter Table 7-5 and identify the applicable group of candidate regions based on the distance that the selected region extends from the PNPP Site. Select the evacuation region identifier in that row, based on the azimuth direction of the plume, from the first column of the Table.3. Determine the ETE table based on the percentile selected.

Then, for the scenario identified in Step 1 and the region identified in Step 2, proceed as follows:* The columns of Table 7-1 are labeled with the scenario numbers. Identify the proper column in the selected Table using the scenario number defined in Step 1.* Identify the row in this table that provides ETE values for the region identified in Step 2.* The unique data cell defined by the column and row so determined contains the desired value of ETE expressed in Hours:Minutes.

Perry Nuclear Power Plant 7-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Example It is desired to identify the ETE for the following conditions:

  • Sunday, August 10t' at 4:00 AM.* It is raining.* Wind direction is toward the northeast (NE).* Wind speed is such that the distance to be evacuated is judged to be a 5-mile radius and downwind to 10 miles (to EPZ boundary).
  • The desired ETE is that value needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population from within the impacted region.* A staged evacuation is not desired.Table 7-1 is applicable because the 90th percentile ETE is desired. Proceed as follows: 1. Identify the scenario as summer, weekend, evening and raining. Entering Table 7-1, it is seen that there is no match for these descriptors.

However, the clarification given above assigns this combination of circumstances to scenario 4.2. Enter Table 7-5 and locate the region described as "Evacuate 5-Mile Radius and Downwind to the EPZ Boundary" for wind direction toward the NE and read region R17 in the first column of that row.3. Enter Table 7-1 to locate the data cell containing the value of ETE for scenario 4 and region R17. This data cell is in column (4) and in the row for region R17; it contains the ETE value of 3:00.7-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend Eire Midweek Weekend EPdwend Weekeek Weekend Weekend i ;Scnrio: 2:10 (2:1 2:05 2:10 2:5) 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10) 2:15 (2:0 2:05 2:10)Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region GoodGoo Rain od God Rain Snow WahrRain Snow Weather RanWeather Weather Weather WahrWeather Event Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ R01 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:10 R02 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:10 2:15 2:30 2:05 2:10 2:20 2:00 2:00 2:10 R03 2:55 3:10 3:00 3:10 2:55 2:55 3:05 3:30 2:45 3:05 3:25 2:45 3:05 3:10 2-Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:101 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:20 2:00 2:00 2:05 ROS 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:05 2:00 2:05 2:05 2:15 12:00 2:05 2:15 2:00 2:00 2:05 2-Mile Ring and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R06 2:30 2:45 2:30 2:45 2:30 2:30 2:45 3:10 2:25 2:40 3:00 2:25 2:40 2:50 R07 2:35 2:50 2:35 2:50 2:30 2:30 2:45 3:10 2:25 2:45 3:05 2:25 2:45 2:50 R08 2:35 2:50 2:35 2:50 2:30 2:30 2:40 3:10 2:25 2:35 3:00 2:25 2:45 2:50 R09 3:00 3:05 3:00 3:05 2:55 3:00 3:00 3:25 2:55 2:55 3:20 3:00 3:00 3:00 RIO 2:55 3:00 2:55 3:05 2:55 3:00 3:00 3:25 2:50 2:55 3:20 2:55 2:50 2:55 R11 2:55 3:00 2:50 3:00 2:50 2:50 3:00 3:25 2:45 2:50 3:20 2:50 2:50 2:55 R12 2:45 2:50 2:45 2:50 2:40 2:50 2:55 3:20 2:40 2:45 3:10 2:45 2:45 3:00 R13 2:15 2:20 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:15 2:20 2:40 2:10 2:15 2:30 2:05 2:05 2:25 5-Mile Ring and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R14 2:40 2:55 2:35 2:55 2:35 2:35 2:50 3:15 2:35 2:45 3:05 2:25 2:40 2:55 R1S 2:35 2:50 2:40 2:50 2:30 2:35 2:45 3:10 2:30 2:40 3:05 2:25 2:40 2:55 R16 2:35 2:55 2:35 2:50 2:30 2:30 2:45 3:10 2:25 2:40 3:00 2:25 2:40 2:50 R17 2:50 3:00 2:55 3:00 2:55 2:50 3:00 3:25 2:50 2:55 3:15 2:50 2:50 2:55 Staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R18 2:40 2:45 2:40 2:45 2:50 2:40 2:45 3:00 2:40 2:45 3:00 2:50 2:50 2:40 R19 2:55 3:00 2:55 2:55 3:00 2:55 3:00 3:15 2:55 2:55 3:10 2:55 2:55 2:55 R20 2:35 2:40 2:35 2:40 2:45 2:40 2:40 2:55 2:35 2:40 2:55 2:45 2:45 2:35 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Midweek Weekend MdekMidweek Weekend MdekWeekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Regn o GodnooaRi Snow Rain Snow Weather Event Impact Weather ______ Weather Weather Weather RaIn Weather Weather Evet _Ipac Entire 2-Mile Region, S-Mile Region, and EPZ R01 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 R02 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:55 4:35 4:35 4:40 4:35 4:35 4:35 R03 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:50 5:15 4:45 4:45 5:10 4:45 4:45 4:45 2-Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:50 1 4:35 4:35 4:40 4:35 4:35 4:35 ROS 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 1 4:40 j 4:35 4:35 4:50 4:35 4:35 4:35 2-Mile Ring and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R06 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 R07 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 R08 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 R09 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 5:00 4:45 4:45 5:00 4:45 4:45 4:45 RIO 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 5:05 4:45 4:45 5:00 4:45 4:45 4:45 R11 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:50 5:00 4:45 4:45 5:00 4:45 4:45 4:45 R12 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:50 5:10 4:45 4:45 5:10 4:45 4:45 4:45 R13 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:45 5-Mile Ring and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R14 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:45 R15 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:45 R16 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:50 4:45 4:45 4:55 4:45 4:45 4:45 R17 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 5:15 4:45 4:45 5:00 4:45 4:45 4:45 Staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5 Miles R18 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:45 4:35 4:35 4:45 4:35 4:35 4:35 R19 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:40 4:55 4:35 4:35 4:45 4:35 4:35 4:35 R20 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:40 4:35 4:35 4:40 4:35 4:35 4:35 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Region Region Good Ran Go an Good Good Rain Snow God Rain Snow Weathe Eventl Impacta Weather WeatherWather Weather Weater Ever Immer Weeken rWeekend y y Unstaged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-Milesd R01 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:10 R02 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:00 2:10 R04 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:10 ROS 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:10 Staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to S-Miles R18 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:05 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:10 R19 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:00 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:00 2:10 R20 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:20 2:05 2:10 2:15 2:05 2:05 2:10 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Region Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Summer Summer Midweek Weekend MidUted Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Region Good Ran Good Ran Good Good Rin So Good Rin So Good SpecIa Roadway W ea h e R in W eather Ra n W eather W eather Ra n n w W eather Ra n n w W eathe r Ev ent Im pact Unstaged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-Miles RO 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 R02 4:35 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:30 R04 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:30 ROS 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:30 4:30 4:30 Staged Evacuation Mile Ring and Keyhole to 5-Miles R18 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:30 4:30 4:30 R19 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:30 4:30 4:30 R20 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:40 4:30 4:30 4:35 4:30 4:30 4:30 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions~Subarea Region Description

_ Lake RO 2-Mile Ring R02 5-Mile Ring R03 Full EPZ Region Wind Direction From 1 3 4 5 6 7 Lake R04 SW, WSW, W WNW, NW, NNW Refer to Region R02 ROS N, NNE, NE, ENE, E ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW Refer to Region R01 R."0 ..N ;. ..R06N R07 NNE, NE, ENE R08 E ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW Refer to Region R01 R09 SW, WSW R10 W 1111 WNW R12 NW R13 NNW R14 N R15 NNE, NE R16 ENE, E ESE, SE, SSE, S, SSW Refer to Region R02 R17 SW, WSW W, WNW Refer to Region R11 NW Refer to Region R12 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-2. PNPP Shadow Region 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate 7-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours, 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure 7-8. Congestion Patterns at 4 Hours, 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%90 80 an 70 4-760 E 50 4030 30>1 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 1 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ* 90% 0 100%90 80 an 70 C S60 C 50'A 40* C 30> 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 2 for Region R03 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ

  • 90% 0 100%to 4-'U%Z"a'90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 3 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%C 4-'U';.~ -U UC'U C we* .C'I 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-~--- w 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 4 for Region R03 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ

  • 90% 0 100%90 80 an 70 m -;Z 60:' 50' 40" 30 30> 20 10 0 L 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 5 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ

  • 90% 0 100%Uj'0 M C 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 2 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 6 for Region R03 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%90 80 70 4-,6 I 50 wo 40". 30> 20 10 0 odd 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 7 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 1001YO 90 80 70 C m~ 60 50 IA Uo 40" 30> 20 10 0 jf 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)360 Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 8 for Region R03 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Do LU'A0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring IEntire EPZ

  • 90% 0 100%0?0 01 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-17. Evacuation lime Estimates

-Scenario 9 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ* 90%

  • 100%an CA 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240R270n30 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-18. Evacuation rime Estimates

-Scenario 10 for Region R03 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%C 4~fUu~UC'U w* .C GD 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 11 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ

  • 90% 0 100%C UC 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 2 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 12 for Region R03 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 4-:0 0U'Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Evening, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 ___10 0 VI C 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 13 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)-2-Mile Ring Mile Ring -Entire EPZ

  • 90% 0 100%CAýE LU C 0 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0-00000'..Ow-400, 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)270 300 Figure 7-22. Evacuation Time Estimates

-Scenario 14 for Region R03 7-28 KID Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 7-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles.

The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities such as schools, medical facilities, and correctional facilities; and (3) homebound special needs population.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of"passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.Specifically:

  • Bus drivers must be alerted* They must travel to the bus depot* They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. Based on experience at other plants, it is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 90 minutes extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families.

Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting family units is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current emergency plan information disseminated to residents of the Perry Nuclear Power Plant EPZ indicates that parents should not pick up children at school; rather, they should pick up children at the receiving school. Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population.

Based on discussions with FirstEnergy and the OROs, this report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that all schoolchildren will be evacuated by bus (no children will be picked up by their parents and no high school students will evacuate in personal vehicles) to present an upper bound estimate of buses required.

It is assumed that children at day-care centers are picked up by parents or guardians and that the time to perform this activity is included in the trip generation times discussed in Section 5.The procedure is:* Estimate demand for transit service* Estimate time to perform all transit functions Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2

  • Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the receiving school 8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand Estimate The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service:* Those persons in households that do not have a vehicle available.
  • Those persons in households that do have vehicle(s) that would not be available at the time the evacuation is advised.In the latter group, the vehicle(s) may be used by a commuter(s) who does not return (or is not expected to return) home to evacuate the household.

Table 8-1 presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note: Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren.

For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren.

The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates.

However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends. Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit dependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.

The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children (roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 xl0) = 27. On this basis, the average load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 8-1 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.[20 + (3 x 10)1 + 40 x 1.5 = 1.00 Table 8-1 indicates that transportation must be provided for 2,931 people. Therefore, a total of 98 bus runs are required to transport this population to care centers.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the PNPP EPZ: n P = No. of HH x I[(% HH with i vehicles) x [(Average HH Size) -i]) X A'Ci i=o Where, A = Percent of households with commuters C = Percent of households who will not await the return of a commuter P = 44,413 x [0.030 x 1.20 + 0.27 x (1.58 -1) x 0.63 x 0.60 + 0.468 x (2.55 -2)x (0.63 x 0.60)2] = 44,413 x 0.132 = 5,861 B = (0.5 x P) -30 = 98 These calculations are explained as follows: All members (1.20 avg.) of households (HH) with no vehicles (3.0%) will evacuate by public transit or ride-share.

The term 44,413 (number of households) x 0.030 x 1.20, accounts for these people.The members of HH with 1 vehicle away (27.0%), who are at home, equal (1.58-1).The number of HH where the commuter will not return home is equal to (44,413 x 0.270 x 0.63 x 0.60), as 63% of EPZ households have a commuter, 60% of which would not return home in the event of an emergency.

The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms.The members of HH with 2 vehicles that are away (46.8%), who are at home, equal (2.55 -2). The number of HH where neither commuter will return home is equal to 44,413 x 0.468 x (0.63 x 0.60)2. The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms (the last term is squared to represent the probability that neither commuter will return).Households with 3 or more vehicles are assumed to have no need for transit vehicles.The total number of persons requiring public transit is the sum of such people in HH with no vehicles, or with I or 2 vehicles that are away from home.The estimate of transit-dependent population in Table 8-1 far exceeds the number of registered transit-dependent persons in the EPZ as provided by the counties (discussed below in Section 8.5). This is consistent with the findings of NUREG/CR-6953, Volume 2, in that a large majority of the transit-dependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants do not register with their local emergency response agency.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2

8.2 School

Population -Transit Demand Table 8-2 presents the school population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all schools within the EPZ for the 2011-2012 school year. This information was provided by the local county emergency management agencies.

The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Bus Runs Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:

  • No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.* While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for primary schools and 50 for middle and high schools.Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.* No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.The counties in the EPZ could introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated.

In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents (although they are not advised to do so) can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.

Lake Erie College is located within the EPZ. Based on information provided on the U.S. News &World Reports website, the enrollment is 1,569 students, "72% of students live in college-owned, -operated, or -affiliated housing." The remaining students live off campus or commute.The 72% of students who live on campus are counted as permanent residents and evacuate in personal vehicles.

It is assumed the off-campus and commuting students live within the EPZ and also evacuate in personal vehicles.

Based on information provided by FirstEnergy, Lake County does not provide public transportation to assist in the evacuation of Lake Erie College.Therefore, Lake Erie College students are not considered in the school population and transit demand.Table 8-3 presents a list of the receiving schools for each school in the EPZ. Students will be transported to these centers where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families.8.3 Special Facility Demand Table 8-4 presents the census of special facilities in the EPZ. Approximately 1,175 people have been identified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities.

The capacity and current census for each facility were provided by the county emergency management agencies.

The number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound, and bed-ridden people at each facility was not available.

A Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 representative from FirstEnergy spoke with several nursing homes in the EPZ and found that on average, the percentage of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden populations are 20%, 60% and 20%, respectively.

These percentages were applied to estimate the data provided in Table 8-4.The transportation requirements for the special facility population are also presented in Table 8-4. The number of ambulance runs is determined by assuming that 2 patients can be accommodated per ambulance trip; the number of wheelchair bus runs assumes 15 wheelchairs per trip and the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip.8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Dependent People EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if school is in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency.

In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat"inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the receiving school after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees.

For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted evacuation region is other than R03 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions.

Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations.

The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.Activity:

Mobilize Drivers (A-4B-)C)Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive at the facility to be evacuated.

It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, drivers would likely require 90 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities.

Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather -100 minutes when raining, 110 minutes when snowing.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Activity:

Board Passengers (C--)D)Based on discussions with offsite agencies, a loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses is used.For multiple stops along a pick-up route (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed,"v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:

T= t+ +t=B+2t =B+2v a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers.

The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v 2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e., pickup time, P) to service passengers is: P = T- = B +a a Assigning reasonable estimates:

B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop S v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec* a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P = 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.Activity:

Travel to EPZ Boundary (D-0E)School Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by the EPZ county emergency management agencies and are summarized in Table 8-5. Also included in the table are the number of buses needed to evacuate medical facilities, transit-dependent population, homebound special needs (discussed below in Section 8.5) and correctional facilities (discussed below in Section 8.6).These numbers indicate there are sufficient resources available to evacuate everyone in a single wave, with exception for the bedridden population within the EPZ, which requires two waves of ambulance transportation.

The buses servicing the schools are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate -90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time -in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate receiving school. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary.

Each bus route is given an identification number Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations).

Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows: Average Speed ZXt length of link i (mi)Zl Delay on link i (min. ) + length of link i (mi.) 60 min.Mi. 1 hr.current speed on link i 7- hr 60 min.1 hr.The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school evacuation, and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the receiving school was computed assuming an average speed of 40 mph, 35 mph, and 30 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

Speeds were reduced in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 to 35 mph (31.5 mph for rain -10% decrease -and 28 mph for snow -20%decrease) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 35 mph, as the school bus speed limit for state routes in Ohio is 35 mph.Table 8-7 (good weather), Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools in the EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the receiving school. The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of travel times associated with Activities A--)B-->C, C-->D, and D-4E (For example: 90 min. + 15 + 38 = 2:25 for Perry High School, with good weather).

The evacuation time to the receiving school is determined by adding the time associated with Activity E-->F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.Evacuation of Transit-Dependent Population The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization.

As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters), 90 percent of the Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 105 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate.

Subareas 4 and 7 have high transit-dependent populations and require more buses than any other subareas (Table 8-10). As such, two separate routes have been identified for each of these subareas.

The start of service on these routes is separated by 20 minutes, as shown in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13.Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes, then proceed out of the EPZ. Transit-dependent pick-up locations are provided annually to EPZ residents in the emergency preparedness brochure.

The county emergency plans do not define bus routes to service these pick-up locations.

The 9 bus routes shown graphically in Figure 8-2 and described in Table 8-10 were designed by KLD to service the major routes through each subarea and to service the pre-defined pick-up locations.

It is assumed that residents will walk to and congregate at these pre-designated pick-up locations, and that they can arrive at the stops within the 105 minute mobilization time (good weather) for buses.As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30 individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated with each stop.The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software.

Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school evacuation.

Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation time estimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.

For example, the ETE for the bus route servicing subarea 1 is computed as 105 + 18 + 30 = 2:35 for good weather (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes).

Here, 18 minutes is the time to travel 11.7 miles at 40.0 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route at 105 minutes. The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers.Activity:

Travel to Care Centers (E--F)The distances from the EPZ boundary to the care centers are measured using Geographical Information Systems (GIS) software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the care center. The care centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general public.Assumed bus speeds of 45 mph, 40 mph, and 35 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.

Activity:

Passengers Leave Bus (F--G)A bus can empty within 5 minutes. The driver takes a 10 minute break.Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Activity:

Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (G-)C)The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people who mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and the bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel time to the care center.The second-wave ETE for the bus route servicing subarea 1 is computed as follows for good weather: Bus arrives at care center at 2:50 in good weather (2:35 to exit EPZ + 15 minute travel time to care center).Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15 minutes.Bus returns to EPZ and completes second route: 15 minutes (travel time to care center) + 18 minutes (11.7 miles @ 40.0 mph) = 33 minutes* Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.* Bus exits EPZ at time 2:35 + 0:15 + 0:15 + 0:33 + 0:30 = 4:10 (rounded to nearest 5 minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes are provided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people exceeds the ETE for the general population at the 90th percentile.

The relocation of transit-dependent evacuees from the care centers to congregate care centers, if the counties decide to do so, is not considered in this study.Evacuation of Ambulatory Persons from Special Facilities The bus operations for this group are similar to those for school evacuation except: Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany the patients.The passenger loading time will be longer at approximately one minute per patient to account for the time to move patients from inside the facility to the vehicles.Table 8-4 indicates that 19 bus runs, 59 wheelchair bus runs and 121 ambulance runs are needed to service all of the special facilities in the EPZ. According to Table 8-5, the counties can collectively provide 1,225 buses, 8 vans, 160 wheel-chair accessible buses, 43 wheelchair accessible vans and 97 ambulances.

Thus, there are sufficient resources to evacuate the ambulatory and wheelchair bound persons from the special facilities in a single wave, but a two-wave evacuation is needed for ambulances evacuating bedridden patients.As is done for the schools, it is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes. Specially trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) will be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients.

Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90 minute timeframe.

Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Based on the locations of the medical facilities in Figure E-2, it is estimated that buses will have to travel 3.5 miles, on average, to leave the EPZ. The average speed output by the model at 90 minutes for region R03, scenario 6 is 27.0 mph; thus, travel time out of the EPZ is approximately 8 minutes.The ETE for buses evacuating ambulatory patients at medical facilities is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the EPZ. For example, the calculation of ETE for the Pine Grove Nursing Home with 11 ambulatory residents is: ETE: 90 + 11 x 1 + 8 = 109 min. or 1:50 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.The ETE for buses evacuating wheelchair-bound patients at medical facilities assumes a loading times of 5 minutes per wheelchair bound person as staff will have to assist them in boarding the bus. For example, the ETE for the wheelchair bound at Pine Grove Nursing Home with 32 wheelchair-bound patients is (assuming concurrent loading on multiple buses with a capacity of 15 patients):

ETE: 90 + 15 x 5 + 8 = 2:55 (rounded to the nearest 5 minutes).The ETE for ambulances evacuating bedridden patients at medical facilities assumes 30 minutes loading time per bedridden person as staff will have to assist them in boarding an ambulance.

For example, the ETE for the bedridden patients at Pine Grove Nursing Home with 11 bedridden patients is (assuming concurrent loading on multiple ambulances with a capacity of 2 patients):

ETE: 90 + 2 x 30 + 8 = 2:40 (rounded to the nearest 5 minutes).If a second wave is needed, assume 10 minutes travel time to host facility, 30 minutes to unload passengers at host facility, 15 minutes travel time back to original medical facility, a loading time of 30 minutes per bedridden person and a travel time of 7 minutes (3.5 miles @ 30 mph -assumed)Second Wave ETE: 2:40 + 10 + 30 + 15 + 2 x 30 + 7 = 4:40 (rounded to the nearest 5 minutes)It is assumed that special facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate host medical facilities.

Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the care center before arriving at the host facility are not considered in this analysis.8.5 Special Needs Population The county emergency management agencies have a combined registration for transit-dependent and homebound special needs population.

Based on data provided by the counties, there are an estimated 20 homebound special needs people within the Ashtabula County portion of the EPZ, 12 people within the Geauga County portion of the EPZ and 175 people within the Lake County portion of the EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate.Details on the number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden people were not available.

It is assumed that the percentage of ambulatory (20%), wheelchair-bound (60%) and bedridden populations (20%) are similar to the percentages used for medical facilities within the EPZ. This results in 41 ambulatory persons, 125 wheelchair-bound persons and 41 Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 bedridden persons.ETE for Homebound Special Needs Persons Wheel-Chair Buses Section 8.3 identifies a wheelchair bus capacity of 15 wheelchairs per trip. As discussed above, there are 125 homebound special needs persons within the EPZ requiring a wheelchair bus.While only 9 wheelchair buses are needed from a capacity perspective, if 25 buses are deployed to service these special needs households (HH), then each bus would require 5 stops (assuming 1 person per HH). It is conservatively assumed that the households are spaced 3 miles apart, and that van speeds approximate 20 mph between households in good weather (10% slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). The last HH is assumed to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed (scenario 6, region R03) after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.a. Assumed mobilization time for wheelchair bus resources to arrive at first household:

1:30 (1:40 in rain; 1:50 in snow)b. Loading time at first household:

5 minutes (as discussed above in Section 8.4)c. Travel to subsequent households:

4 @ 9 minutes (3 miles @ 20 mph, 18 mph in rain; 16 mph in snow) = 36 minutes (40 minutes -rain; 45 minutes -snow)d. Loading time at subsequent households:

4 @ 5 minutes = 20 minutes e. Travel time to EPZ boundary at 2:30 (hr:min after the advisory to evacuate; 2:45 -rain;3:00 -snow): 5 miles @ 21.2 mph (18.1 mph -rain; 17.9 mph -snow) = 14 minutes (17 minutes -rain; 17 minutes -snow)ETE: 1:30+ 5 + 36 + 20 + 14= 2:45 Rain ETE: 1:40 + 5 + 40 + 20 + 17 = 3:00 Snow ETE: 1:50 + 5 + 45 + 20 + 17 = 3:20 Buses Assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 41 households need to be serviced.

While only 2 buses are needed from a capacity perspective, if 8 buses are deployed to service these special needs HH, then each would require about 5 stops. The following outlines the ETE calculations:

1. Assume 8 buses are deployed, each with about 5 stops, to service a total of 41 HH.2. The ETE is calculated as follows: a. Buses arrive at the first pickup location:

90 minutes b. Load HH members at first pickup: 2 minutes c. Travel to subsequent pickup locations:

4 @ 9 minutes = 36 minutes d. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations:

4 @ 2 minutes = 8 minutes e. Travel to EPZ boundary:

14 minutes.ETE: 90+2+36+8+14=2:30 Rain ETE: 100 + 2 + 40 + 8 + 16 = 2:45 Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Snow ETE: 110 + 2 +45 + 8 + 16 = 3:00 The estimated travel time between pickups is based on a distance of 3 miles @ 20 mph = 9 minutes (speeds are 10% and 20% lower for rain and snow, respectively).

If planned properly, the pickup locations for each bus run should be clustered within the same general area. The estimated travel time to the EPZ boundary is based on a distance of 5 miles @ 22.0 mph = 14 minutes (average speed output by DYNEV at 2:15 -hr:min after ATE -good weather; 18.6 mph at 2:30 -rain; 18.6 mph at 2:45 -snow). It is assumed that mobilization time to first pickup is 10 minutes longer in rain and 20 minutes longer in snow. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.Assuming all HH members (avg. HH size equals 2.45 persons -Figure F-i) travel with the disabled person yields 5 x 2.45 = 13 persons per bus. From the perspective of bus capacity, fewer buses could be deployed.

For example, 4 buses, each servicing about 10 HH could accommodate 2.45 x 10 = 26 people, but the additional 1 stop would add (9 + 2) = 11 minutes to the ETE.Ambulances It is estimated that 21 ambulance runs will be needed to evacuate the 41 homebound bed-ridden persons within the EPZ.As discussed above, there are only 97 ambulances available within the EPZ and 121 are required to evacuate bedridden patients at medical facilities within the EPZ. It is therefore likely that a second wave of ambulance runs will be needed to evacuate all bedridden persons within the PNPP EPZ if the neighboring counties cannot fill the gap through mutual aid.Mobilization time and loading time are assumed to be 30 minutes each per ambulance.

Each ambulance servicing the homebound bed-ridden population will make 2 stops with an estimated distance of 5 miles between stops and an estimated distance of 5 miles to the EPZ boundary after the final stop. It is conservatively assumed that ambulances will travel at 30 mph from household to household.

Mobilization time is 5 minutes longer and travel speed is 10% less in rain -27 mph, and an additional 5 minutes longer and 10% less in snow -24 mph).All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.The ETE are computed as follows: a. Ambulance arrives at first household:

30 minutes b. Loading time at first household:

30 minutes c. Ambulance travels to second household:

5 miles @ 30 mph = 10 minutes d. Loading time at second household:

30 minutes e. Travel time to EPZ boundary:

5 miles @ 25.3 mph = 12 minutes (21.8 mph, 14 minutes -rain; 23.0, 13 minutes -snow)ETE: 30+30+10+30+12=1:50 Rain ETE: 35 + 30 + 11 + 30 + 14 = 2:00 Snow ETE: 40 + 30 + 13 + 30 + 13 = 2:05 Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 The following outlines the ETE calculations if a second wave is needed: a. Travel time to host facility:

10 miles @ 30 mph = 20 minutes (23 minutes -rain; 25 minutes snow)b. Unload passengers at host facility:

30 minutes. This is half the time needed to load the passengers, since (1) the host facility staff can provide assistance; and (2) ambulance driver need not move the patient inside the host facility.c. Travel time back to EPZ: 10 miles @ 30 mph = 20 minutes (23 minutes -rain; 25 minutes -snow)d. Loading time at first household:

30 minutes e. Ambulance travels to second household:

5 miles @ 30 mph = 10 minutes (11 minutes -rain; 13 minutes -snow)f. Loading time at second household:

30 minutes g. Travel time to EPZ boundary at 3:50 (4:05 -rain; 4:15 -snow): 5 miles @ 20.1 mph = 15 minutes (17.4 mph, 17 minutes -rain; 17.1 mph, 18 minutes -snow)ETE: 1:50+20+30+20+30+10+30+15=4:25 Rain ETE: 2:00 + 23 + 30 + 23 + 30 + 11 + 30 + 17 = 4:45 Snow ETE: 2:05 + 25 + 30 + 25 + 30 + 13 + 30 + 18 = 4:55 8.6 Correctional Facilities As detailed in Table E-9, there are two correctional facilities within the EPZ -Juvenile Justice Center and Lake County Jail. The total inmate population at these facilities is 382 persons. A total of 13 buses are needed to evacuate these two facilities, based on a capacity of 30 inmates per bus. Mobilization time is assumed to be 90 minutes (100 minutes in rain). It is estimated that it takes 15 minutes to load the inmates onto a bus, and that 5 buses can be loaded in parallel.

Thus, total loading time is estimated at approximately 45 minutes. The detailed evacuation plans for these facilities are confidential.

Using GIS software, the shortest route from the facility to the EPZ boundary, traveling away from the plant, is 3.6 miles. The travel time to traverse 3.6 miles is 10 minutes (22.0 mph at 2:15) in good weather, 11 minutes (18.8 mph at 2:25) in rain and 11 minutes (19.1 mph at 2:35) in snow. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.ETE: 90 + 45 + 10 = 2:25 Rain ETE: 100 + 45 + 11 = 2:35 Snow ETE: 110 + 45 + 11 = 2:45 Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 (Subsequent Wave)A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for the Care Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Care Center/Host Facility G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service Time A-+B Driver Mobilization B--C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route C->D Passengers Board the Bus D---E Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary E->F Bus Travels Towards Care Center Outside the EPZ F---G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Perry Nuclear Power Plant 8-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Figure 8-2. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-1. Transit-Dependent Population Estimates 108,812 1.20 1.58 2.55 44,413 3.0% 27.0% 46.8% 63% 60% 5,861 50% 2,931 2.7%Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-2. School Population Demand Estimates 1 Perry High School 625 13 2 Homer Nash Kimball Elementary School 511 8 2 Madison High School 1,115 23 2 Madison Middle School 814 17 2 Red Bird Elementary School 519 8 3 Hale Road Elementary School 271 4 3 New Life Christian Academy 20 1 4 Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary School 130 3 4 Geneva High School 921 19 4 Geneva Middle School 429 9 4 North Madison Elementary School 390 6 4 Spencer Elementary School 428 7 5 Cork Elementary School 276 4 5 Ledgemont High School 200 4 6 Auburn Career Center 665 14 6 Leroy Elementary School 277 4 7 Buckeye Elementary School 442 7 7 Chestnut Elementary School 545 8 7 Clyde C. Hadden Elementary School 268 4 7 Elm Street Elementary School 477 7 7 Harding High School 297 6 7 Harvey High School 823 17 7 Henry F. LaMuth Middle School 817 17 7 Heritage Middle School 678 14 7 Hershey Montessori 250 5 7 J.R. Williams Junior High School 1,711 35 7 Madison Avenue Elementary School 373 6 7 Maple Elementary School 550 8 7 McKinley Elementary School 236 4 7 Melridge Elementary School 458 7 7 Our Shepherd Lutheran 138 3 7 Riverside High School 1,178 24 7 St. Gabriel 760 16 7 Sterling Morton Elementary School 280 4 7 Summit Academy 100 2 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-3. Receiving Schools Scol, Care Ce1 t Leroy Elementary School Madison Avenue Elementary School Andrews-Osborne Academy Melridge Elementary School Spencer Elementary School A-Tech Hershey Montessori School Bellflower Elementary School Sterling Morton Elementary School New Life Christian Academy Chardon High School Perry High School Elm Street Elementary School Eastlake Jefferson Elementary School Cork Elementary School Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary Jefferson Elementary School School Geneva High School Jefferson High School Geneva Middle School McKinley Elementary School Kirtland Elementary School Harding High School Kirtland Middle School Clyde C. Hadden Elementary School Hale Road Elementary School Lake Catholic High School Buckeye Elementary School Madison High School Lakeside High School North Madison Elementary School Lakeside Intermediate School Red Bird Elementary School Madison Middle School Lakeside Junior High School Ledgemont High School Ledgemont Elementary School Maple Elementary School Longfellow Elementary School Henry F. LaMuth Middle School J.R. Williams Junior High School Mentor High School Riverside High School Auburn Career Center Mentor Ridge Junior High School Homer Nash Kimball Elementary School Ontario Primary School St. Gabriel St. Mary's Church (Mentor)Our Shephard Lutheran Willoughby Edison Elementary School Chestnut Elementary School Willoughby Grant Elementary School Summit Academy Willoughby McKinley Elementary School Heritage Middle School Willoughby Middle School Harvey High School Willoughby/E.

Tech Center 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-4. Special Facility Transit Demand 4 Geneva Point Skilled Nursing & Rehabilitation Center Geneva 66 52 11 31 10 1 3 5 4 Geneva Village Retirement Community Geneva 80 76 15 46 15 1 4 8 4 Homestead Nursing Home Geneva 53 51 10 31 10 1 3 5 4 Manor Home -Nursing Home Geneva 54 53 11 32 10 1 3 5 4 Pine Grove Nursing Home Geneva 63 54 11 32 11 1 3 6 4 Rae Ann Nursing Facilities Geneva 84 77 16 46 15 1 4 8 4 Richwood Residential Centers Inc. Geneva 8 8 2 5 1 1 1 1 4 University Hospitals Geneva Medical Center Geneva 25 25 5 15 5 1 1 3 4 Walden Residential Center Geneva 8 8 2 5 1 1 1 1 Ashtabula County Subtotal:

441 404 83 243 78 9 23 42 4 Broadfield Manor Nursing Madison 88 82 17 49 16 1 4 8 4 Cardinal Woods Skilled Nursing Home Madison 120 115 23 69 23 1 5 12 4 Madison Health Care Inc. Madison 130 110 22 66 22 1 5 11 4 Madison Village Manor Madison 8 8 2 5 1 1 1 1 5 Stewart Lodge Madison 54 54 11 32 11 1 3 6 6 TriPoint Medical Center Concord 155 110 22 66 22 1 5 11 7 Altercare of Mentor Center -Rehabilitation Mentor 143 135 27 81 27 1 6 14 7 Homestead II Nursing Home Painesville 52 50 10 30 10 1 2 5 7 Ivy House Residential Care Painesville 22 22 5 13 4 1 1 2 7 Lakemed Nursing and Rehabilitation Center Mentor 100 85 17 51 17 1 4 9 Lake County Subtotals:

872 771 156 462 153 10 36 79 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources Perry School District 30 26 --Madison School District 45 40 --Riverside Local Schools 94 84 --Painesville City Schools 19 27 -Mentor Local Schools 72 82 -- -Willoughby-Eastlake Schools 105 95 -- -Kirtland 27 23 -- -Wickliffe School District 17 17 -- -Lake County DD 35 -LakeTran 110 8 -112 --Ledgemont School District 11 10 --Chardon School District 42 40 4 --Geauga Transit 19 -Geauga County N/A 68 4 -24 Lake County N/A 554 -43 53 Ashtabula County N/A 151 -20 Schools (Table 8-2): 338 -Medical Facilities (Table 8-4): 19 59 121 Transit-Dependent Population (Table 8-10): 98 -Homebound Special Needs (Section 8.5): 8 25 21 Correctional Facilities (Section 8.6): 13 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions 1 Auburn Career Center 843, 838, 207, 206, 210, 22, 23 2 Ledgemont High School 145, 146, 147, 148, 149 3 Leroy Elementary School 701, 702, 703, 704, 705, 720, 715 256, 257, 258, 259, 260, 261, 271, 262, 263, 264, 265, 266, 267, 268, 19, 357, 20, 21, 206, 207, 838, 208, 209, 4 New Life Christian Academy 837, 214, 215 5 Chestnut Elementary School 788, 317, 318, 202, 203, 204, 205, 206, 210, 22, 23 543, 542, 541, 540, 729, 568, 593, 597, 180, 181, 182, 6 Harding High School 183, 184, 185, 186 7 McKinley Elementary School 51, 52, 873, 511, 863, 862, 64, 65, 66, 67, 69, 771, 70 8 Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary 452,450, 2,447, 73,445, 74, 75, 76 9 Cork Elementary School 41, 400, 42, 43 445, 73, 447, 2, 31, 392, 393, 394, 32, 33, 34, 396, 30, 10 Geneva Elementary School 35, 36, 762, 761 11 Geneva Middle School 754, 753, 80, 32, 33, 34, 396, 30, 35, 36, 762, 761 84, 83, 82, 81, 753, 80, 32, 33, 34, 396, 30, 35, 36, 762, 12 Geneva High School 761 97, 98, 99, 164, 163, 162, 161, 160, 159, 158, 157, 156, 13 Homer Nash Kimball Elementary School 155, 154, 32, 80, 753, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86, 87 284, 285, 286, 287, 288, 289, 290, 476, 799, 800, 309, 302, 477, 801, 730, 596, 594, 597, 180, 181, 182, 183, 15 Madison Avenue Elementary School 184, 185, 186 114, 116, 103, 102, 109, 128, 127, 126, 125, 725, 124, 16 Madison Middle School 452, 450, 2, 447, 73, 445, 74, 75, 76 102, 109, 128, 127, 126, 125, 725, 124, 452, 450, 2, 447, 18 North Madison Elementary School 73, 445, 74, 75, 76 114, 116, 103, 102, 109, 128, 127, 126, 125, 725, 124, 19 Red Bird Elementary School 452, 450, 2, 447, 73, 445, 74, 75, 76 20 Spencer Elementary School 73, 445, 74, 75, 76 21 Buckeye Elementary School 789, 491, 490, 489, 492, 494, 495, 498, 500, 338 22 Clyde C. Hadden Elementary School 495, 498, 500, 338 473, 298, 299, 475, 302, 477, 801, 730, 596, 594, 597, 23 Elm Street Elementary School 180, 181, 182, 183, 184, 185, 186 25 Henry F. LaMuth Middle School 846, 847, 838, 207, 206, 210, 22, 23 26 Hershey Montessori 790, 692, 691, 690, 505, 504, 338 299, 475, 302, 477, 801, 730, 596, 594, 597, 180, 181, 27 Summit Academy 182, 183, 184, 185, 186 234, 293, 300, 301, 175, 176, 177, 178, 179, 595, 180, 28 Hale Road Elementary School 181, 182, 183, 184, 185, 186 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Bus a.* -.a 310, 849, 311, 304, 483, 589, 587, 198, 197, 196, 213, 183, 184, 185, 186 30 Harvey High School 808, 807, 315, 316, 788, 317, 318, 202, 203, 204, 205, 31 Heritage Middle School 206, 210, 22, 23 237, 238, 239, 780, 240, 241, 256, 257, 258, 259, 260, 261, 271, 262, 263, 264, 265, 266, 267, 268, 19, 357, 20, 32 Perry High School 21, 206, 207, 838, 208, 209, 837, 214, 215 36 Subarea 1 227, 243, 170, 169, 168, 167, 984, 166, 165, 460 37 Subarea 2 165, 460, 118, 458, 454, 456, 102, 109 102, 109, 128, 127, 126, 980, 125, 725, 124, 452, 450, 2, 38 Subarea 4 A 447, 73, 445, 74, 75, 76 39 Subarea 4 B 58, 59, 60, 370, 61, 62, 369, 63, 368, 367, 64, 65, 66 136, 773, 772, 771, 770, 769, 768, 767, 766, 765, 764, 40 Subarea 5 763, 762, 761 41 Subarea 6 270, 701, 702, 703, 704, 705 42 Subarea 3 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 466, 233, 234, 293, 294 946, 540, 729, 568, 593, 594, 596, 730, 801, 477, 302, 309, 803, 308, 307, 806, 805, 807, 315, 809, 810, 811, 43 Subarea 7 A 812, 813, 814, 815, 816, 817, 818, 819, 820 234, 293, 294, 470, 471, 295, 296, 472, 297, 473, 298, 299, 475, 302, 478, 303, 480, 304, 305, 306, 485, 487, 44 Subarea 7 B 488, 489, 492, 494, 495, 498, 500, 338 5, 6, 362, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 360, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 65 1-90 WB 359, 19, 357, 20, 21, 966, 210, 22, 23 23, 22, 210, 966, 21, 20, 357, 19, 359, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 66 1-90 EB 13, 12, 360, 11, 10, 9, 8, 7, 362, 6, 5 232, 235, 174, 175, 176, 177, 178, 179, 595, 180, 181, 67 SR-2 WB 182, 183, 184, 185, 186 500, 498, 495, 494, 492, 489, 488, 487, 485, 306, 305, 304, 480, 303, 478, 302, 475, 299, 298, 473, 297, 472, 296, 295, 471, 470, 294, 293, 234, 233, 232, 231, 230, 229, 228, 227, 243, 170, 169, 168, 167, 984, 166, 165, 460, 118, 458, 454, 456, 102, 109, 128, 127, 126, 980, 68 US-20 EB 125, 725, 124, 452, 450, 2, 447, 73, 445, 74, 75 75, 74, 445, 73, 447, 2, 450, 452, 124, 725, 125, 980, 126, 127, 128, 109, 102, 456, 454, 458, 118, 460, 165, 166, 984, 167, 168, 169, 170, 243, 227, 228, 229, 230, 231, 232, 466, 233, 234, 293, 294, 470, 471, 295, 296, 472, 297, 473, 298, 299, 475, 302, 478, 303, 480, 304, 69 US-20 WB 305, 306,485, 487, 488, 489, 492, 494,495, 498, 500 196, 197, 198, 199, 200, 201, 202, 203, 204, 205, 206, 70 SR-44 SB 207, 838, 208, 209, 837, 214, 215 8-22 KID Engineering, P.C.Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Bus *Route.Nu be Decito Noe rvreIrmRut tr oE Budr 282, 784, 281, 280, 279, 278, 277, 27b, 275, 274, 273, 272, 261, 260, 259, 258, 257, 970, 256, 241, 253, 255, 254, 750, 751, 98, 99, 164, 163, 162, 161, 160, 159, 158, 157, 156, 155, 154, 32, 80, 753, 81, 82, 83, 84, 85, 86 71 SR-84 EB 459, 458, 454, 456, 102, 109, 128, 127, 126, 980, 125, 72 Madison HS 725, 124, 452, 450, 2, 447, 73, 445, 74, 75 586, 483, 304, 305, 306,485, 487, 488,489, 492,494, 73 Maple Elementary School 495, 498, 500 74 Melridge Elementary School 318, 694, 693, 692, 691, 690, 505, 504 303, 480, 304, 305, 306, 485, 487, 488, 489, 492, 494, 75 Our Shepherd Lutheran 495, 498, 500 273, 274, 275, 276, 277, 278, 279, 280, 281, 784, 282, 786, 787, 312, 313, 314, 315, 316, 788, 317, 318, 202, 76 Riverside High/J. R. Williams Elementary 203, 204, 205, 206, 210, 22, 23 77 St Gabriel 695, 691, 690, 505, 504 78 Sterling Morton Elementary 525, 526, 527, 528, 529, 530, 531, 532, 571 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-7. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary School Cork Elementary School 90 15 10.0 25.80 24 2:10 10.0 16 2:2S Geneva High School 90 15 3.5 24.20 9 1:55 9.7 15 2:10 Geneva Middle School 90 15 3.2 21.80 9 1:55 9.7 15 2:10 Spencer Elementary School 90 15 4.4 15.30 18 2:05 11.4 18 2:.25 Auburn Career Center 90 15 4.5 33.60 8 1:55 4.7 8 2:05 Buckeye Elementary School 90 15 2.6 4.30 36 2:25 5.9 9 2:30 Chestnut Elementary School 90 15 3.8 8.00 29 2:15 7.6 12 2:30 Clyde C. Hadden Elementary School 90 15 0.8 2.90 18 2:05 5.9 9 2:15 Elm Street Elementary School 90 15 4.4 5.20 51 2:40 9.0 14 2:50 Hale Road Elementary School 90 15 6.0 24.30 15 2:00 4.8 8 2:10 Harding High School 90 15 4.7 4.20 67 2:55 9.0 14 3:10 Harvey High School 90 15 3.5 1.80 118 3:45 6.9 11 3:55 Henry F. LaMuth Middle School 90 15 3.3 5.30 38 2:25 4.7 8 2:35 Heritage Middle School 90 15 6.3 8.40 46 2:35 7.4 12 2:45 Hershey Montessori 90 15 1.2 3.90 19 2:05 1.2 2 2:10 Homer Nash Kimball Elementary School 90 15 7.7 4.30 109 3:35 9.8 15 3:50 J.R. Williams Junior High School 90 15 6.1 3.10 119 3:45 4.7 8 3:55 Leroy Elementary School 90 15 10.3 20.20 31 2:20 5.9 9 2:25 Madison Avenue Elementary School 90 15 4.9 7.60 39 2:25 8.6 13 2:40 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Madison High School 90 15 9.0 4.71 115 3:40 5.8 9 3:50 Madison Middle School 90 15 9.2 5.87 94 3:20 5.8 9 3:30 Maple Elementary School 90 15 3.0 2.40 76 3.05 8.8 14 3:15 McKinley Elementary School 90 15 4.4 6.00 45 2:30 10.0 15 L.45 Melridge Elementary School 90 15 1.9 5.10 22 2:10 6.1 10 2:20 New Life Christian Academy 90 15 13.0 25.90 31 2:20 5.2 8 2:25 North Madison Elementary School 90 15 7.0 5.27 80 3:05 7.9 12 3:20 Our Shepard Lutheran 90 15 3.0 1.70 107 3:35 9.4 15 3:50 Perry High School 90 15 15.1 24.10 38 2:25 5.2 8 2:35 Red Bird Elementary School 90 15 9.2 5.87 94 3:20 7.9 12 3:35 Riverside High School 90 15 6.1 3.10 119 3:45 4.7 8 3:55 St. Gabriel 90 15 0.6 22.50 2 1:50 2.4 4 1:55 Sterling Morton Elementary School 90 15 1.9 29.20 4 1:50 5.5 9 2:00 Summit Academy 90 15 6.1 5.50 67 2:55 9.4 5 3:10 Ledgemont High School 90 15 2.1 37.90 4 1:50 2.5 4 1:55 Maximum for EPZ: Maximum: Average for EPZ: Average: Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-8. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary School 100 20 3.8 6.50 36 2:40 10.0 18 2:SS Cork Elementary School 100 20 10.0 24.50 25 2:25 10.0 18 2:45 Geneva High School 100 20 3.5 10.80 20 2:20 9.7 17 2:40 Geneva Middle School 100 20 3.2 9.70 20 2:20 9.7 17 2:40 Spencer Elementary School 100 20 4.4 11.60 23 2:2 11.4 20 2:45 Auburn Career Center 100 20 4.5 24.50 11 2:15 4.7 9 2:20 Buckeye Elementary School 100 20 2.6 4.00 39 2:40 5.9 11 2:50 Chestnut Elementary School 100 20 3.8 7.60 31 2:35 7.6 14 2:45 Clyde C. Hadden Elementary School 100 20 0.8 4.80 11 2:15 5.9 11 2:25 Elm Street Elementary School 100 20 4.4 3.90 68 3:10 9.0 16 3:25 Hale Road Elementary School 100 20 6.0 16.20 23 2:25 4.8 9 2:35 Harding High School 100 20 4.7 6.30 45 2:45 9.0 16 3:05 Harvey High School 100 20 3.5 2.40 88 3:30 6.9 12 3:40 Henry F. LaMuth Middle School 100 20 3.3 5.80 35 2:35 4.7 9 2:45 Heritage Middle School 100 20 6.3 7.90 48 2:50 7.4 13 3:05 Hershey Montessori 100 20 1.2 3.70 20 2:20 1.2 3 2:25 Homer Nash Kimball Elementary School 100 20 7.7 7.80 60 3:00 9.8 17 3:20 J.R. Williams Junior High School 100 20 6.1 3.20 115 3:55 4.7 9 4:05 Leroy Elementary School 100 20 10.3 21.40 29 2:30 5.9 11 2:40 Madison Avenue Elementary School 100 20 4.9 4.40 67 3:10 8.6 15 3:25 Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Madison High School 100 20 9.0 6.46 84 3:25 5.8 11 33 Madison Middle School 100 20 9.2 6.58 84 3:25 5.8 11 3:35 Maple Elementary School 100 20 3.0 2.80 66 i3:10 8.8 16 3:25 McKinley Elementary School 100 20 4.4 8.70 31 2:35 10.0 18 2:50 Melridge Elementary School 100 20 1.9 4.90 23 2:25 6.1 11 2:35 New Life Christian Academy 100 20 13.0 13.70 57 I 3:00 5.2 9 3:10 North Madison Elementary School 100 20 7.0 4.60 91 3:35 7.9 14 3:45 Our Shepard Lutheran 100 20 3.0 2.70 68 3:10 9.4 17 3:25 Perry High School 100 20 15.1 13.90 65 3:05 5.2 9 3:15 Red Bird Elementary School 100 20 9.2 6.58 84 3:25 7.9 14 3:40 Riverside High School 100 20 6.1 3.20 115 3:55 4.7 9 4:05 St. Gabriel 100 20 0.6 5.20 7 2:10 2.4 5 2:15 Sterling Morton Elementary School 100 20 1.9 26.30 5 2:05 5.5 10 2:15 Summit Academy 100 20 6.1 3.90 94 3:35 9.4 9 3:55 Ledgemont High School 100 20 2.1 33.60 4 2:05 2.5 5 2:10 Maximum for EPZ: Maximum: Average for EPZ: Average: Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-9. School Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow Assumption of the Blessed Virgin Mary School 110 25 3.8 4.00 58 3:15 10.0 21 3:35 Cork Elementary School 110 25 10.0 21.20 29 2,5 10.0 21 3:05 Geneva High School 110 25 3.5 6.00 35 2:50 9.7 20 3:10 Geneva Middle School 110 25 3.2 5.30 37 2:55 9.7 20 3:15 Spencer Elementary School 110 25 4.4 7.40 36 2:55 11.4 Auburn Career Center 110 25 4.5 21.00 13 2:30 4.7 10 2:40 Buckeye Elementary School 110 25 2.6 4.80 33 2:50 5.9 12 3:00 Chestnut Elementary School 110 25 3.8 7.40 32 2:50 7.6 16 3:05 Clyde C. Hadden Elementary School 110 25 0.8 4.10 13 2:30 5.9 12 2:40 Elm Street Elementary School 110 25 4.4 6.00 44 3:00 9.0 19 3:20 Hale Road Elementary School 110 25 6.0 18.90 20 2:35 4.8 10 2:45 Harding High School 110 25 4.7 5.90 48 3:05 9.0 19 3:25 Harvey High School 110 25 3.5 2.00 106 4:05 6.9 14 4:15 Henry F. LaMuth Middle School 110 25 3.3 4.90 41 3:00 4.7 10 3:10 Heritage Middle School 110 25 6.3 7.60 50 3,05 7.4 15 3:20 Hershey Montessori 110 25 1.2 3.80 20 2:35 1.2 3 2:40 Homer Nash Kimball Elementary School 110 25 7.7 7.50 62 3:20 9.8 20 3:40 J.R. Williams Junior High School 110 25 6.1 3.10 119 4:15 4.7 10 4:25 Leroy Elementary School 110 25 10.3 16.30 38 2:55 5.9 12 3:05 Madison Avenue Elementary School 110 25 4.9 6.20 48 3:05 8.6 18 3:2S Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Madison High School 110 25 9.0 4.60 117 4:15 5.8 12 4:25 Madison Middle School 110 25 9.2 5.02 110 4:05 5.8 12 420 Maple Elementary School 110 25 3.0 2.20 83 3:40 8.8 18 4:00 McKinley Elementary School 110 25 4.4 10.90 25 2.40 10.0 20 3:00 Melridge Elementary School 110 25 1.9 4.00 28 2:45 6.1 13 3:00 New Life Christian Academy 110 25 13.0 16.70 47 3,05 5.2 11 3:15 North Madison Elementary School 110 25 7.0 2.90 145 4:40 7.9 16 5:00 Our Shepard Lutheran 110 25 3.0 1.80 101 400 9.4 19 4:15 Perry High School 110 25 15.1 16.80 54 3:10 5.2 11 3:20 Red Bird Elementary School 110 25 9.2 5.02 110 4:05 7.9 16 4:25 Riverside High School 110 25 6.1 3.10 119 4:15 4.7 10 4:25 St. Gabriel 110 25 0.6 7.80 5 2:20 2.4 5 2:25 Sterling Morton Elementary School 110 25 1.9 23.50 5 2:20 5.5 11 2:35 Summit Academy 110 25 6.1 6.30 59 3:15 9.4 19 3:35 Ledgemont High School 110 25 2.1 30.00 5 2:20 2.5 6 2:30 Maximum for EPZ: maximum: Average for EPZ: Average: Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes 36 Subarea 1 2 Travel along US-Highway 20 11.7 37 Subarea 2 10 Travel along US-Highway 20 10.1 38 Subarea 3 12 Travel along State Route 84 13.8 39 Subarea 4A 8 Travel along US-Highway 20 7.1 40 Subarea 4B 9 Travel Along State Route 531 through Geneva-on-the-Lake 2.6 41 Subarea 5 3 Travel along State Route 307 5.6 42 Subarea 6 8 Travel along State Route 86 6.2 43 Subarea 7A 23 Travel Along State Route 535, Liberty St and Painesville-Ravenna Rd 9.4 44 Subarea 7B 23 Travel along US-Highway 20 6.2-I-I-I Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Good Weather 2 1 105 10.1 6.52 93 30 3:50 1 11.1 17 5 10 32 30 I5:2 3 1 105 13.8 6.41 129 30 4:25 7.7 11 5 10 36 30 6:00 1 105 7.1 30.50 14 30 2:30 11.1 17 5 10 31 30 4:05 2 125 2.6 40.00 4 30 2:40 12.9 19 5 10 23 30 4:10 5 1 105 5.6 31.60 11 30 2:30 16.7 25 5 10 33 30 4:10 6 1 105 6.2 39.50 9 30 225 14.5 22 5 10 31 30 4:05 1 105 9.4 8.40 67 30 3:25 7.7 11 5 10 26 30 4:4 2 125 6.2 6.78 55 30 3:30 8.1 12 5 10 23 30 4:55 Maximum ETE: Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Average E: Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Rain 3 1 115 13.8 16.72 1123 40 4:40 7.7 13 5 10 37 40 16:2S 1 115 7.1 27.80 15 40 2:55 11.1 19 5 10 35 40 4.40 2 135 2.6 14.70 11 40 3:10 12.9 22 5 10 27 40 4:50 5 1 115 5.6 21.60 15 40 2:55 16.7 29 5 10 38 40 4:55 6 1 115 6.2 33.70 11 40 2:50 14.5 25 5 10 35 40 4:45 1 I 115 9.4 1 7.90 1 72 40 I 3:5 7.7 13 s 1 1O 29 40 5:25 7 7.7 40 29 5 I 10 4. *4 + + *4 4 4 4. I. .4 2 1 135 6.2 1 6.02 I 62 40 14:00 8.1 14 5 1 10 26 40 5:35 8.1 26 5 I 10 Maximum ETE: Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Average ETE: Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates

-Snow 3 1 125 13.8 1 5.60 1 147 50 1 5:25 7.7 is 5 10 43 50 1 7:30 1 125 7.1 21.10 20 50 3:20 11.1 22 5 10 40 50 5:2S 4 2 145 2.6 10.90 15 50 3:30 12.9 26 5 10 31 50 5:35 5 1 125 5.6 25.40 13 50 3:10 16.7 33 5 10 44 50 5:35 6 1 125 6.2 30.00 12 50 3:10 14.5 29 5 10 41 50 5:25 1 125 9.4 6.10 93 50 4:30 7.7 15 5 10 34 50 6:25 2 145 6.2 5.70 65 50 4:25 8.1 16 5 10 30 50 6:15 Maximum ETE: Maximum ETE: Average ETE: Average ETE: Perry Nuclear Power Plant Evacuation Time Estimate 8-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

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