ML19337B576

of Emergency Preparedness - Evacuation Time Estimates.

ML19337B576
Person / Time
Site:	Prairie Island
Issue date:	09/30/1980
From:	NORTHERN STATES POWER CO.
To:
Shared Package
ML19337B575	List: ML19337B574 ML19337B576
References
NUDOCS 8010070316
Download: ML19337B576 (18)

Text

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l EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Fran Areas Near the Prairie Island Nuclear Generating Plant l

4 Prepared by Northern States Power Canpany 414 Nicollet Mall Minneapolis,15 55401 April, 1980 Revision 1 AUGUST 1980 Revision 2 SEPIEMBER 1980 l

8 010 0703/6v-

EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table of Contents Pace General. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . I

! Evacuation Preparation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 Confirmation of Evacuation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .2 Method Used for Determining Time Estimates. . . . . . . . . . . . .3 Special Facility Evacuation. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3

Table Evacuation Time, . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5 Nap Sectors. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6-15 Appe ndix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .16 Exit Routes Vehicle Travel Rate 4

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PRAIRIE ISLAND NUCLEAR GENERATING PLANT Evacuation Time Estimates i General The estimated time required for evacuation of people from areas near l

nuclear power reactors is in response to a letter from the Nuclear

. Regulatory Commission (B Grimes) dated November 29, 1979, with an l attached guidance titled, " Request for evacuation time estimates i (after notification) for areas near nuclear power plants."

The estimated time provided herein for both the best conditions and adverse conditions are times required to travel from a residence located within a specific sector, along a predetermined route, to a

designated established location outside the sector being evacuated.

The state plan now calls for evacuation to a 10 mile distance. In all cases, every evacuation sector defined in this study emanates from the reactor site outward to the prescribed radius.

l These estimates were developed under the auspices of the Minnesota i

Department of Public Safety, Division of Emergency Services, with j assistance from the Minnesota Department of Transportation, Emergency Operations Section, who furnished road traffic volume, numbers and certain reasonable assumptions in developing the method used for determining the time estimates as outlined in the attachments. Also the Wisconsia Department of Transportation, Crisis Relocation Section, confirmed the concepts used in developing the method.

4 4

The Table identifies the 10 sectors at the generating plant, the estimated 1980 population involved, exit routes from each sector, and the evacuation time and confirmation time required in each sector. I i

The ten maps show the area stated in the table and repeat the l population, evacuation time, and confirmation time required. l Evacuation Preparation l

I It is assumed a prior alert will provide time to prepare for the j evacuation and therefore~the estimates for the general evacuation do not include any time for preparation. These times could vary from packing a hasty bag (20 minutes) to feeding livestock (several hours). j One special evacuation problem is the unwilling evacuee, who must be l notified of alternate protective action, such as informing him by message to remain inside with windows and doors closed.

Confirmation of Evacuation Present plans (state and local) do not address this need specifically; however, during discussions regarding evacuations of residents, a 1

door-to-door check was considered. The time listed in the table for confirmation assumes a reasonable number of emergency vehicles available to perform this task.

ME'INOD USED EOR DESTRMINING TIME ESTIMATES A process using population densities, local geography, and road capabilities has been used to detecnine the evacuation times.

1. We Minnesota Department of Transportation (MDOr) emergency operations, assumsa that each vehicle carries two occupants average, so all sector population is divided by two in order to determine the vehicles required to evacuate that sector.

2. Exit routes are assigned traffic volume capacity amounts in " vehicles per hour capacity" (VPHC). '1he lowest VPHC for any road in each exit route was used. 'Ib provide conservatism to the time estimates, it was assumed that every vehicle in each segment (0-2) (2-5) (5-10) of every evacuation zone traveled the total distance through that segment.

3. Vehicle travel rate over exit roads are assigned a speed (MPH) according to the area; it being " rural" or " urban."

4. Adverse conditions; bad weather and seasonal road conditions according to MDor should increase the evacuation time by 30 percent.

5. If the number of vehicles (half the sector population) is less than the VPHC for the exit route, the time for evacuation depends on the vehicle travel rate. Using the.above concepts, the evacuation 1

time estimates have been developed. l Special Facilities Evacuation

'Ihe Ehergency Medical Services Section of the Minnesota Department of Health provided the names of hospitals and nursing hcmes within the 10 mile radius of the nuclear plants and provided times required to load and transport patients. 'Ihere are no Wisconsin hospitals or nursing hcmes within the 10 mile radius of the Prairie Island Plant, although two nursing hcmes are located just outside that radius (10.5 miles).

REV 2 9/26/80 Page 3 j

Eatimated Time Rsquirsd (Minutes)

Sequence of Events 400 - 450 Patients

- Incident

- Notification of MDH, EMS Section 20*

- Notification of Risk Facilities 10*

- Request for Transportation 5

- Transport Vehicles to Risk Facilities 60

- Loading Time 180

- Transport to Host Area 60 335 minutes or 5 hours5.787037e-5 days <br />0.00139 hours <br />8.267196e-6 weeks <br />1.9025e-6 months <br /> 35 minutes This estimate makes the assumption that weather conditions are good and the use of enough vehicles to transport everyone without return trips. For the adverse time required to evacuate the above facilities, the 30 percent increase in time used for general evacuation is j reasonable. It is assumed that confirmation of removal would be an integral part of the evacuation process carried out at each of the Special Facilities.

(

• The notification times were included in this Special Facility Evacuation estimate developed by the Minnesota Department of Health.

REV 2 9/26/80 Page 5 Table EVACUATION TIME ESPIMATES IN '111E AREA NEAR 'IYlE PRAIRIE ISIRO NUCIEAR GENERATING PIRTP Evac Zone Evacuation Time Sectors Map Distance (minutes)

Degree Sectors Population Exist Ibutes Best/Mverse/ Confirm P-1 0 - 2 miles 180 NW-ESE 238 Co M E 10/13/26 P-2 0 - 2 miles 180 SE-WNW 111 Co M 18 10/13/26 l P-3 0 - 5 miles 90 NW-NNE 370 Co M E, 00, 0 22/29/58 l P-4 0 - 5 miles 90 NE-ESE 610 Co M E, 0, K 22/29/58 l P-5 0 - 5 miles 90 SE-Sai 2302 Co M 46, 53 22/29/58 l T.H.-61 T.H.-19 P-6 0 - 5 miles 90 SW-WNW 378 Co M 46,18 22/29/58 T.II.-61 P-7 0 - 10 miles 90 NW-NNE 2153 Co M E, QQ, Q, 42/55/110

00. O T.H.-10 P-8 0 - 10 miles 90 NE-ESE 4355 Co M K, V, C, 42/55/110 W, EE T.H.-35 T il.-63 P-9 0 - 10 miles 90 SE-SSW 14,016 Co ad 53, 1, 41 76/100/200 T.H.-61 T.II.-19 T.H.-58 P - 10 0 - 10 miles 90 SW-4 NW 1,790 Co Rd 1 42/55/110 T.H.-61 T.H.-316 '

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